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Chapter 3 – Aviation Activity Forecasts

The overall goal of aviation activity forecasting is to provide reasonable projections of future activity that can be translated into specific airport facility needs anticipated during the next twenty years and beyond.

The first draft of this chapter was prepared in January 2018. Following FAA review, several revisions have been made, including updated based aircraft and aircraft operations forecasts. The original forecasts are maintained as originally presented for reference.

Overview and Purpose

This chapter provides updated aviation activity forecasts for Southwest Washington Regional Airport (KLS) for the twenty-year master plan horizon (2017-2037). The most recent Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved aviation activity forecasts for KLS were developed for the 2007-2027 planning period in the 2011 Airport Master Plan update.

The forecasts presented in this chapter are consistent with the current and historic role of KLS as a regional general aviation airport, capable of accommodating a wide range of activity, including business class and jets. The well-documented shortage of public use in Southwest Washington with comparable capabilities, highlights the importance of recognizing the regional role of KLS in its current and long term planning.

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The forecasts of activity are unconstrained and assume the City of Kelso will be able to make the facility improvements necessary to accommodate the anticipated demand, unless specifically noted. The City of Kelso will consider if any unconstrained demand will not or cannot be reasonably met through the evaluation of airport development alternatives later in the master plan.

FAA Forecasting Process

The FAA provides aviation activity forecasting guidance for airport master planning projects. FAA Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5070-6B, Airport Master Plans, outlines seven standard steps involved in the forecast process:

1) Identify Aviation Activity Measures: The level and type of aviation activities likely to impact facility needs. For general aviation, this typically includes based aircraft and operations. 2) Previous Airport Forecasts: May include the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), state or regional system plans, and previous master plans. 3) Gather Data: Determine what data are required to prepare the forecasts, identify data sources, and collect historical and forecast data. 4) Select Forecast Methods: There are several appropriate methodologies and techniques available, including regression analysis, trend analysis, market share or ratio analysis, exponential smoothing, econometric modeling, comparison with other airports, survey techniques, cohort analysis, choice and distribution models, range projections, and professional judgment. 5) Apply Forecast Methods and Evaluate Results: Prepare the actual forecasts and evaluate for reasonableness. 6) Summarize and Document Results: Provide supporting text and tables as necessary. 7) Compare Forecast Results with FAA’s TAF: Follow guidance in FAA Order 5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems. In part, the Order indicates that forecasts should not vary significantly (more than 10 percent) from the TAF. When there is a greater than 10 percent variance, supporting documentation should be supplied to the FAA. The aviation demand forecasts are then submitted to the FAA for their approval.

Key Activity Elements

As noted above, general aviation airport activity forecasting focuses on two key activity segments: based aircraft and aircraft operations (takeoffs & landings). Detailed breakdowns of these activity segments include:

• Aircraft fleet mix; • Peak activity; • Distribution of local and itinerant operations; and • Determination of the critical aircraft (also referred to as the design aircraft).

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The critical aircraft represents the most demanding aircraft type or family of aircraft that uses an airport on a regular basis (a minimum of 500 annual takeoffs & landings). The critical aircraft is used to establish a variety of FAA design categories, which then establish design standards for airfield facilities. FAA airport design standard groupings reflect the physical requirements of specific aircraft types and sizes. Design items, such as length evaluations, are determined by the requirements of current/future critical aircraft. The activity forecasts also support the evaluation of several demand-based facility requirements including runway and taxiway capacity, aircraft parking, and hangar capacity.

Airport Service Area

An airport service area refers to the geographic area surrounding an airport that has the greatest influence on its activity. The population and economic conditions, and the number and type of airports within a service area can directly influence individual airport activity. For general aviation airports, a 30- or 60-minute surface travel time is often used to approximate the boundaries of its service area.

A significant portion of general aviation airport activity is normally generated by aircraft that are owned and operated by individuals, businesses, or government agencies located within its service area. Other activity is generated by transient aircraft that chose to operate at the airport, instead of a nearby competing airport. Transient aircraft activity includes both enroute and origin-destination travel. In many cases, the airport itself is the destination, when the purpose of flight is to access FBO and related services, fuel, an airport restaurant, or specific flight training needs.

Convenience, choice, and cost are three primary considerations that every airport user weighs when making their consumer choice. Surface travel time to or from an airport is a primary measure of convenience, although facility capabilities, available services, and user costs may outweigh convenience for many users.

Figure 3-1 illustrates the approximate service area boundaries for KLS. Table 3-1 lists the public use airports within a 35 nautical mile (air miles) radius of KLS, which incorporates the majority of the defined service area for KLS.

Service areas for commercial airports often extend well beyond a one-hour drive time due to the relatively small number of airports with scheduled airline service. Kelso is located within overlapping service areas for two commercial airports: Portland International Airport and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

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Spanaway (S44)

Olympia Regional Airport (OLM)

Strom Field (39P)

Chehalis - Centralia Airport (CLS)

Carlson Memorial Field - South Lewis County Airport (TDO)

Southwest Washington Regional Airport (KLS)

Goheen Airport (W52) Vernonia Municipal (05S) Woodland State Cedars North Airport (W27) Airpark (W58)

Scappoose Industrial Park (SPB) (VUO) (1W1) Ken Jernstedt Portland - Troutdale (TTD) Airfield (4S2) Portland - Portland Hillsboro (HIO) International Airport (PDX)

Chehalem Airpark (17S)

Sportsman Airpark (2S6) Mulino State Aurora State (4S9) (UAO)

Approximate 60 minute surface travel time to/from Public use airports in service area. Southwest Washington Regional Airport

Approximate 30 minute surface travel time to/from Public use airports in vicinity (outside service area) Southwest Washington Regional Airport

AIRPORT SERVICE AREA SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT FIGURE 3-1 AIRPORT MASTER PLAN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT AIRPORT MASTER PLAN

TABLE 3-1: PUBLIC USE AIRPORTS IN VICINITY OF KLS (WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES)

RUNWAY LIGHTED FUEL AIRPORT LOCATION LENGTH(S) SURFACE RUNWAY AVAILABLE (FEET) Woodland State Airport (W27) 15NM SE 1,953 Asphalt Yes No Goheen Airport (W52) 2,565 NSTD 22NM SE Turf No (Battle Ground) 1,500 VASI only Cedars North Airpark (W58) 27NM SE 1,960 Turf No No (Battle Ground) Grove Field (1W1) NTSD 35NM SE 2,710 Asphalt No (Camas) MIRL Scappoose Industrial Airpark (SPB) 21NM S 5,100 Asphalt Yes Yes Pearson Field Airport (VUO) 32NM S 3,275 Asphalt Yes Yes (Vancouver) 11,000 Concrete Portland International Airport (PDX) 34NM S 9,825 Asphalt Yes Yes 6,000 Asphalt Vernonia Municipal Airport (05S) 22 NM SW 2,940 Turf No No Ed Carlson Mem. Fld. – So. Lewis County Airport (TDO) 22NM N 4,479 Asphalt Yes Yes (Toledo-Winlock) Chehalis-Centralia Airport (CLS) 34NM N 5,000 Concrete Yes Yes

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Population and Economic Conditions

AREA ECONOMY

The 2011 Airport Master Plan and the 2007 WSDOT Long Term Air Transportation Study (LATS) highlighted the importance of the regional area surrounding KLS that encompasses Cowlitz and Clark counties. Although portions of the airport service area described in the previous section extend beyond this two-county area, the population and economic trends within the two-county area will have the most direct impact on activity at KLS.

Table 3-2 and Table 3-3 summarize 2016 Washington Employment Security Department (ESD) data for Cowlitz County and Clark County.1

TABLE 3-2: COWLITZ AND CLARK COUNTY - LEADING EMPLOYMENT SECTORS (2016)

COWLITZ COUNTY SECTOR EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR % of TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1. Trade, Transportation, Warehousing, 7,900 20.57% and Utilities 2. Manufacturing 6,500 16.94% 3. Education and Health Services 6,300 16.40% 4. Government 6,200 16.14% 5. Leisure and Hospitality 3,700 9.64% All other industries 7,800 20.31% Total Nonfarm Employment 38,400 100% CLARK COUNTY SECTOR EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR % of TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1. Trade, Transportation, Warehousing, 28,300 18.30% and Utilities 2. Education and Health Services 25,100 16.24% 3. Government 24,700 15.98% 4. Professional and Business Services 19,000 12.29% 5. Leisure and Hospitality 14,900 9.64% All other industries 42,600 27.55% Total Nonfarm Employment 154,600 100%

1 Cowlitz County Profile (updated January 2016); Clark County Profile (updated November 2017) Scott Bailey, Regional Labor Economist, WA Employment Security Department

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TABLE 3-3: COWLITZ AND CLARK COUNTY - LEADING EMPLOYMENT SECTOR WAGES (2016)

COWLITZ COUNTY CLARK COUNTY SECTOR ANNUAL AVERAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE WAGE WAGE Transportation and Warehousing $60,834 $51,494 Manufacturing $66,628 $56,394 Education $26,310 $23,849 Healthcare & Social Assistance $47,063 $46,911 Government $47,114 $55,061 Professional and Technical Services $58,149 $77,948

Source: Washington Employment Security Department Data Tables for Cowlitz and Clark Counties

These core sectors are well established and are expected to continue as leading employers in the future. ESD notes that employment in Cowlitz County returned to pre-recession levels by the end of 2015, while Clark County employment was approximately 18 percent above its pre-recession peak at the end of 2017. ESD indicates that both counties are poised for growth.

It is noted that many of the employment sectors wages vary between Cowlitz County and Clark County. In 2016 the average income among all industry segments in Cowlitz County was $45,775 and the average income for Clark County was $47,860.

The total nonfarm employment for Southwest Washington, which includes Cowlitz and Clark Counties, is projected to experience a net increase of 31,200 jobs between 2015 and 2025. Employment is projected to increase from 189,400 to 220,600 during this period, which reflects an average annual growth of 1.5 percent.

Unemployment

The rate of unemployment within the two-county area has significantly improved since end of the Great Recession. The November 2017 unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in Cowlitz County and 4.5 percent in Clark County, compared to the statewide unemployment rate of 4.5 percent.2 Both counties experienced double-digit unemployment levels during the depths of the recession, peaking above 14 percent in 2009, while the statewide average peaked at approximately 10 percent. As noted earlier, current employment in the region has return to, or exceeded pre-recession levels.

2 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

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POPULATION

The population within an airport’s service area, in broad terms, affects the type and scale of aviation facilities and services that can be supported. Although a large number of airport-specific factors can affect activities at an airport, changes in population often reflect other broader economic conditions that may also affect airport activity. The airport service area for KLS includes the urban areas of Kelso, Longview, and several other incorporated cities, in addition to the unincorporated areas of Cowlitz County and Clark County. As noted earlier, the ability of KLS to attract users from throughout the region highlights a significant distinction between local community airports and regional airports. As a result, changes in population within the region can directly impact activity at the airport.

HISTORIC POPULATION

Certified estimates of population for Washington counties and incorporated cities are developed annually by the state Office of Financial Management (OFM). The annual OFM estimates, coupled with the decennial U.S. Census, conducted every ten years, provide an indication of local area population trends over an extended period.

The April 1, 2017 OFM population estimate for Cowlitz County was 105,900 and Clark County was 471,000, forming a combined population base of nearly 580,000. The 2017 OFM population estimates for the City of Kelso and City of Longview (incorporated areas only) were 11,980 and 37,510, respectively. All of these areas have experienced growth since the 2010 Census. Historic population data and average growth rates for these areas and Washington State are summarized in Table 3-4.

The data indicates that Clark County has consistently outpaced Cowlitz County and Washington State over twenty years. It also noted that the population growth in unincorporated Cowlitz County is generally higher than experienced in the incorporated areas of Kelso and Longview. As noted earlier, the geographic distribution of local and regional population growth are indicators of underlying economic growth within the service area for KLS.

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TABLE 3-4: HISTORIC POPULATION DATA

CITIES SHARE (%) CLARK COWLITZ CITIES OF KELSO YEAR OF COWLITZ WASHINGTON COUNTY COUNTY AND LONGVIEW (INCORPORATED AREA) COUNTY 19901 238,053 82,119 43,266 52.7% 4,866,699 20001 345,238 92,948 46,555 50.0% 5,894,143 20101 425,363 102,410 48,573 47.4% 6,724,540 20172 471,000 105,900 49,490 46.7% 7,310,300 Average Annual Rates (AAR) of Growth (%)

CLARK COWLITZ CITIES OF KELSO YEAR WASHINGTON COUNTY COUNTY AND LONGVIEW (INCORPORATED AREA) 1990-2000 3.79% 1.25% 0.74% 1.93% 2000-2010 2.11% 0.97% 0.43% 1.33% 2000-2017 1.84% 0.77% 0.36% 1.27% 2010-2017 1.47% 0.48% 0.27% 1.20%

Sources: 1. U.S. Census data 2. Office of Financial Management (OFM) annual estimates.

POPULATION FORECASTS

County Population Forecasts

Long-term population forecasts for Cowlitz County and Clark County are prepared by the state Office of Financial Management (OFM) to support county planning under the Washington Growth Management Act (GMA). The current OFM forecasts (2010-2040) were released in May 2012. The forecasts are presented in three scenarios (Low, Medium, High), which are designed to provide “a reasonable range of possible population growth.”

The current comprehensive plan for Cowlitz County was prepared in 2017 and did not include population projections. In discussions with Cowlitz County’s Long-Range Planning staff, the Medium OFM forecast of 0.43 percent was considered most reasonable of the three OFM scenarios. The current comprehensive plan for Clark County was prepared in 2015 and identified the Medium OFM forecast of 1.14 percent. The OFM Medium population forecasts for Cowlitz County, Clark County, and Washington State are summarized in Table 3-5.

Sustained population growth in this range, within a well-established population center, generally provides a reliable economic base that requires improvements in its transportation facilities, including airports.

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TABLE 3-5: COUNTY POPULATION FORECASTS

2010 US 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 CENSUS COWLITZ COUNTY1 OFM Medium Forecast 102,410 105,130 108,588 111,706 114,158 115,798 116,897 (0.43% AAR 2015- 2040) CLARK COUNTY1,2 OFM Medium Forecast 425,363 448,500 477,884 508,953 536,717 562,207 585,137 (1.14% AAR 2015- 2040) WASHINGTON1 OFM Medium Forecast 6,724,540 7,022,200 7,411,977 7,793,173 8,154,193 8,483,628 8,790,981 (.93% AAR, 2010- 2040) 1. 2012 OFM population forecasts for Cowlitz and Clark Counties and Washington State. 2. 2015 Clark County Comprehensive Plan

City Population Forecasts

The current comprehensive plan for the City of Kelso was prepared in 2017, but does not include population projections. The Supporting Data chapter3 for the comprehensive plan notes “Data for the City of Kelso is used when it is available but in its absence, data for Cowlitz County is used as proxy.” The absence of city population forecasts suggests that the annual growth rate assumed for Cowlitz County (0.43 percent) over the next twenty years is also appropriate for Kelso. A review of Kelso’s recent historic population indicates modest growth fluctuating within a range of about 200 (approximately 1.6 percent of total) over the last 18 years, which is consistent with the very modest growth expectations assumed for the next twenty years. The City of Longview updated their comprehensive plan in 2015 and forecast 1.0 percent annual population growth over the next twenty years. Longview anticipates faster population growth between 2015 and 2035 than was experienced over the previous 15 years, based on overall conditions within the community and county.

3 City of Kelso Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 4, Demographic Report – August 2013.

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National General Aviation Activity Trends

The early years of the 21st Century have presented numerous challenges for general aviation (GA). On a national level, most measures of GA activity declined sharply during the Great Recession and then gradually returned to pre-recession levels over the next ten years. Aircraft manufacturing, for example, hit a low point in 2010, then experienced strong growth during the initial economic recovery (through 2015), followed by a period of sustained, but slower growth.

As depicted in Figure 3-2, the active U.S. GA fleet has fluctuated within a slight overall decline since 2001. This trend coincides with other GA industry trends including annual aviation fuel consumption, hours flown, IFR enroute air traffic, operations at towered airports, active pilots, etc. The FAA 2017-2037 forecast predicts that the active GA aircraft fleet will grow at an average annual rate of approximately 0.1 percent between 2016 and 2037 (forecast assumptions summarized below).

FIGURE 3-2: US ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION FLEET

The FAA performs an annual assessment of U.S. civil aviation through its FAA Aerospace Forecast.4 The twenty-year forecasts are updated annually by evaluating recent events and established trends affecting a wide range of commercial and general aviation segments. Broad economic conditions and current forecasts are examined in order to provide reasonable expectations for aviation within the broader U.S. and global economy. The FAA forecasts examine in detail several key aviation industry indicators including fuel prices, production and supply; aircraft manufacturing trends; aircraft ownership trends; fleet and pilot attrition; flight training trends; advances in fuel, engine, avionics, and airspace technology (ADS-B NextGen, etc.); and on-demand air travel. This array of factors is reflected in the FAA’s overall assessment of future U.S. aviation activity.

4 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2017-2037.

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Although the FAA maintains a modestly favorable long-term outlook for general aviation, many of the activity segments associated with piston engine aircraft and AVGAS consumption are not projected to return to “pre-recession” levels within the 20-year forecast. It should be noted however, that the FAA forecasts do include some bright spots for specific activity segments that are relevant to KLS. Key takeaways from the FAA 2017-2037 Aerospace Forecast Highlights are summarized below:

Positive • Turbine aircraft (, , helicopter) fleet and hours flown will grow; • Sport and Experimental aircraft fleet and hours flown will grow; • Piston Rotorcraft fleet and hours flown will grow; • Jet fuel consumption will grow; • The number of Student, Sport, Airline Transport, Rotorcraft Only, and Instrument rated pilots will grow; • GA enroute IFR air traffic will grow; and • GA Operations at towered airports will grow.

Negative • Fixed wing Piston aircraft fleet and hours flown will shrink; • AVGAS consumption will shrink; and • The number of Private and Commercial pilots will shrink.

Neutral

• Overall GA fleet will grow by less than 2% over the next 20 years.

The cited measures of national general aviation activity (positive, negative, neutral) are intended to reflect the broad expectations defined by FAA, which have varying relevancy to KLS. As such, national growth expectations provide broad indications of trends rather than precise indicators of future activity at KLS. The FAA TAF (FY 2017-2045) illustrates some variance between its national and regional growth expectations with the based aircraft fleet in the NW-Mountain Region exceeding national growth by a considerable margin (0.92% annual average growth compared to 0.78%). In general, the growth rate for the region’s based aircraft fleet appears to more relevant to KLS than the overall national trends. The slightly more optimistic regional outlook presented by FAA in the TAF is reflected in the updated forecast. Based on the limited data available, there is no definitive evidence to indicate that KLS activity will deviate significantly from its region.

In its current forecast, the FAA expects general aviation to experience modest growth overall. The FAA’s annual growth assumptions for individual general aviation activity segments are summarized in Table 3-6.

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TABLE 3-6: FAA LONG RANGE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS (U.S. GENERAL AVIATION)

FORECAST ANNUAL AVERAGE ACTIVITY COMPONENT GROWTH RATE (2016-2037)

Aircraft in U.S. Fleet Single Engine Piston Aircraft in U.S. Fleet -0.9%

Multi-Engine Piston Aircraft in U.S. Fleet -0.5%

Turboprop Aircraft in U.S. Fleet 1.4%

Turbojet Aircraft in U.S. Fleet 2.3%

Experimental Aircraft in U.S. Fleet 1.0%

Sport Aircraft in U.S. Fleet 4.1%

Piston Helicopters in U.S. Fleet 1.3%

Turbine Helicopters in U.S. Fleet 1.8%

Active GA Fleet (# of Aircraft) 0.1%

Active Pilots in U.S. Private Pilots -0.7%

Commercial Pilots -0.6%

Airline Transport Pilots 0.5%

Instrument Rated Pilots 0.3%

Sport Pilots 4.1%

Student Pilots (Indicator of flight training activity) 0.4%

Active GA Pilots (All Ratings) 0.1% Hours Flown in U.S. Piston AC -0.8%

Turbine AC 2.5%

Experimental AC 2.0%

Sport AC 4.6%

Total GA Fleet Hours 0.9% Fuel Consumption in U.S. AVGAS (Gallons consumed - GA only) -0.4%

Jet Fuel (Gallons consumed – GA only) 1.9%

Source: FAA Long Range Aerospace Forecasts (FY 2017-2037)

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Overview of Recent Local Events

AVIATION FUELING ACTIVITY

In the absence of air traffic control tower data, historic aviation fuel delivery/sale data often provides a useful gauge of overall trends for turbine (jet fuel) and piston (aviation gasoline) aircraft activity. The FBO was unable to provide the requested historic fuel data for KLS.

HANGAR DEMOLITION/CONSTRUCTION

A review of current aerial photography and the previous Airport Layout Plan drawing (June 2010) confirms that no new hangars were constructed at KLS between the completion of the last master plan and the start of the master plan update in 2017. In 2016, five hangars (20 units) located on the west side of Runway 12/30 were demolished to address FAR Part 77 airspace conflicts and building safety issues (3 units were unoccupied). Airport management reports that 17 aircraft were stored in the occupied hangar units. Following the hangar demolition, 10 of these aircraft remained at the airport and 7 aircraft left the airport (sold or relocated by owner to other airports). Airport management is actively working on siting new hangars on the west side of the runway to accommodate recently displaced aircraft and new aircraft. A tenant-owned portable operations building was sited near the southeast corner of the north tiedown apron (east side of Runway 12/30) in 2015 for a locally-based medical helicopter operator (Life Flight).

CHANGES IN BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET

The fall 2017 airport management count of 67 based aircraft was 7 aircraft lower than the 74 aircraft identified for 2007 in the 2011 master plan. Note: Per FAA review comment (8/1/18), the validated 2017 based aircraft of 64 will be used in updated forecasts. The 2007 based aircraft count was based on FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) data and was not verified through an actual count in the master plan. For this reason, any apparent trend derived from the data may be suspect. In recent years, the FAA has required airports to annually update their based aircraft data through its database of registered aircraft (www.basedaircraft.com), which now provides more accurate counts than previous estimates. As noted above, airport management indicates that the demolition of hangar units in 2016 contributed to a loss of based aircraft. However, changes to other based aircraft are difficult to verify based on the accuracy of historical counts.

INSTRUMENT FLIGHT ACTIVITY

The FAA tracks flight activity for aircraft operating under instrument flight rules (IFR) in the national airspace system using Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC). The TFMSC data captures all filed civil aircraft instrument flight plans by originating or destination airports. Military aircraft are not included in the FAA instrument flight plan data.

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For non-towered airports such as KLS, TFMSC data provides the only operational data specifically attributed to the airport. Although instrument flight plans account for only a small percentage of aircraft operations at most non-towered airports, they reliably capture the majority of activity generated by turbine business-class aircraft, which operate predominantly on IFR flight plans. At KLS, this data provides the best indication of business class turbine aircraft activity for the purposes of defining the design aircraft.

TFMSC data for KLS was obtained and analyzed for 2012-2016. Partial year data for 2017 was also reviewed and found to be tracking slightly lower, but comparable to 2016 levels. In addition, the instrument flight data referenced in the 2011 Airport Master Plan was compared with TFMSC data to ensure consistency in data sources. The comparison of master plan and TFMSC data confirmed virtually identical activity for the same periods. The data is summarized in Table 3-7 by Airport Reference Code (ARC). See Figure 3-7, presented later in this chapter, for information of ARC categories and typical aircraft types.

TABLE 3-7: KLS INSTRUMENT ACTIVITY (2007, 2012-2016)

Aircraft Reference 20071 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Code (ARC) A-I 378 240 399 369 453 424 A-II 14 18 24 19 30 28 A-III 0 0 0 0 0 0 B-I 78 71 54 75 38 26 B-II 244 257 268 196 284 237 B-III 0 0 0 0 0 0 C-I 0 8 0 6 3 2 C-II 4 6 4 4 4 0 C-III 0 0 0 0 0 0 D-I 0 0 0 0 2 0 D-II 0 0 0 0 0 0 D-III 0 0 0 0 0 0 HELI 18 2 8 2 4 4 Unknown/ 6 31 27 17 29 45 Blocked2 742 633 784 688 847 766

Source: FAA TFMSC 1. 2007 Flight Aware data; referenced in 2011 Southwest Washington Regional Airport, Airport Master Plan.

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The review of TFMSC data for KLS provides an effective gauge of business aviation activity, since the majority of these aircraft are operated on instrument flight plans. As noted in Table 3-7, the combined volume of ADG II or larger aircraft activity at KLS currently falls below the FAA’s threshold of 500 annual operations required to meet the “Regular Use” definition for critical or design aircraft. Updated projections of activity by airport reference code and runway design category are provided later in the chapter. This information will be used in the Facility Requirements Chapter to define current and future design standards for the airport.

Existing Aviation Activity Forecasts

Developing new aviation activity forecasts for the master plan requires an updated assessment of current conditions and a review of existing aviation activity forecasts. Several existing forecasts relevant to KLS are available for review, including the 2011 Airport Master Plan, the 2017 Washington Aviation System Plan (WASP), and the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF).

The 2007 Washington Long Term Air Transportation Study (LATS) forecast has been replaced by the WASP as the official WSDOT Aviation forecast of statewide aviation activity. However, the LATS forecast provides regional analyses not performed in the WASP that continue to appear relevant to the future of southwest Washington and KLS.

It is important to note that aviation activity forecasts prepared prior to the Great Recession that began in Q4 of 2007, became largely obsolete due to the effects of the severe economic downturn. General aviation airports routinely saw sustained, double-digit declines in annual activity during the recession that was characterized by closed businesses, reduced fuel sales, loss of based aircraft, increased hangar vacancy rates, lower aircraft utilization, and a dearth of new hangar construction. In general, the recovery of airport activity segments has been slower than their preceding declines. None of these conditions were anticipated in forecasts prepared prior to the recession, and as a result, pre-recession forecasts tend to significantly overestimate activity compared to actual events.

The effect of an unanticipated, prolonged dip in aviation activity, was that a “re-set” was required once the effects of the recession began to ease. This was often defined as the “new normal” in the 2009-2012 time period for measures of local economic health such as sales tax revenue. For most airports, the re-set also provided a new starting point to establish sustained growth moving forward. The key takeaway is that drawing direct connections between current conditions and pre-recession activity is tenuous at best. The ability for an airport to rebound in the future is also not highly defined by the activity that occurred during the period of weak economic conditions.

2011 SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN

Assessment: The 2011 master plan based aircraft and operations forecasts fall at the high end of a range of potential activity based on a review of current conditions. However, the forecasts provide a useful reference in developing updated forecasts of aviation activity for KLS.

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The 2011 Airport Master Plan provides airport activity forecasts for a 2007-2027 planning period. The forecasts have now reached their midpoint from the 2007 base year, which allows for comparison to actual activity. The forecasts include based aircraft, based aircraft fleet mix, annual aircraft operations, activity peaking, and local/itinerant traffic distributions. The subsequent analysis of critical aircraft was developed in the facility requirements element of the master plan.

Based Aircraft

The master plan provided three based aircraft forecasts, including the existing FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and two projections that relied on market share analysis contained in the 2007 WSDOT Aviation Long Term Air Transportation Study (LATS).

The recommended based aircraft forecast for KLS applied the annual average growth rate (approximately 1.7%) assigned to the Southwest Washington region in the LATS forecast. The underlying rationale was that activity at KLS would be expected to grow at the same rate as the overall region. The forecast projected that KLS based aircraft would increase from 745 to 109 by 2027, which translates into an annual average growth rate of 1.96 percent over the twenty year period. The higher overall growth rate of the forecast is due to a one-time single year increase of 5 based aircraft (+6.8%) between 2007 and 2008. From this initial adjustment, 1.7 percent average annual growth is maintained through 2027, which adds 1 or 2 additional aircraft every year.

Annual Aircraft Operations

The master plan presented two existing forecasts (FAA TAF and WSDOT LATS) and developed three updated forecasts of aircraft operations for KLS.

The updated forecasts relied on a common baseline estimate of activity (40,860 operations) contained in the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF). The 2006 TAF estimate was presented as “actual” activity and applied the master plan base year of 2007, which was used for each of the updated operations forecasts.

The recommended operations forecast was developed by applying the WSDOT LATS-defined annual growth rate for the Southwest Washington region to the 2007 operations estimate for KLS. The recommended forecast projected that KLS annual aircraft operations would increase from 40,860 to 56,127 by 2027, which translates into an annual average growth rate of 1.6 percent over the twenty year period. For reference, the midpoint (2017) forecast was 47,889 annual operations, which corresponded to an operations to based aircraft ratio (OPBA) of 510, when paired with the 2017 forecast of 94 based aircraft.

5 The recommended forecast utilized an assumed 74 based aircraft in 2007 (FAA Form 5010-1 Master Airport Record).

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Estimating annual operations is particularly challenging at non-towered airports. As a result, the validity of previous forecast cannot be definitively determined. However, it is reasonable to assume based on the conditions noted earlier, that aircraft operations levels at KLS are currently lower than previously forecast. At a minimum, applying the same OPBA (510) from the master plan forecast to the current based aircraft count (67) would result in roughly 30 percent reduction in activity (compared to 2017 forecast).

FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECAST (2017-2037)

Assessment: The FAA TAF future year based aircraft data for KLS provide a reasonable estimate of activity for the current twenty year planning period. However, the accuracy of historical and future operations data for KLS cannot be definitively determined based on the limitations of previously reported data. Despite this, the TAF’s annual growth rate for future aircraft operations at KLS is reasonable, and provides a useful reference in developing updated forecasts of aviation activity.

The FAA provided the following review comment regarding the use and interpretation of the TAF: “The FAA does not provide estimates of existing activity nor does it provide forecast projections for non-towered GA airports.” The FAA notes that TAF data is provided by airport sponsors via required updates of their 5010-1 Airport Record Form, and that the airport sponsors are responsible for the accuracy of the data. The FAA does acknowledge that the future year TAF data (currently published through 2045) for non-towered GA airports is created by applying FAA-defined annual growth rates, with periodic adjustments made using updated airport sponsor activity data. However, the FAA also recently indicated that the future year TAF data at a non-towered GA airport is not considered a “forecast” for the purposes of master plan analysis. Despite this, the FAA requires that the preferred airport master plan forecasts be compared to the TAF and must be within specific deviations (+/-10%), or require sufficient justification for FAA approval.

The FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for KLS was reviewed as one of the primary estimates of activity currently available for the Airport. The current TAF base year is 2015, with projections extending to 2045.

Based Aircraft

The TAF for KLS projects an increase from 64 to 82 based aircraft by 2037 (the end of current master planning period). This forecast translates into an annual average growth rate of 1.13 percent over the 22- year period (2015-2037). However, it is noted that the TAF reaches 82 based aircraft in 12 years (2027), and then maintains a static projection through 2045.

2018 Update: The FAA Airport Master Record Form (5010-1) for KLS (effective 12 months ending 12/31/2017) lists 67 based aircraft, including 63 fixed-wing aircraft, 3 ultralights, and 1 helicopter.

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Annual Aircraft Operations

The TAF for KLS projects an increase in annual aircraft operations from a base estimate of 40,860 in 2015 to 57,255 by 2037. This forecast translates into an annual average growth rate of 1.55 percent over the 22- year period (2015-2037). The 30-year TAF forecast contains no variation over time, with annual growth automatically indexed at 1.54 percent beginning with the 2016 forecast.

For reference, the TAF 2017 forecast (42,124 annual operations) corresponds to an operations to based aircraft ratio (OPBA) of 619, when paired with the 2017 TAF based aircraft forecast of 68.

2018 Update: The current FAA Airport Master Record Form (5010-1) for KLS (effective 12 months ending 12/31/2017) lists 40,860 annual aircraft operations, which duplicates the data in previous operations estimates dating back to 2012 (coinciding with the last master plan). The ability of airport sponsors to accurately estimate annual aircraft operations levels is very limited without actual activity counts. The reliance on previous master plan forecast data to populate the 5010 appear to be limited by the accuracy of baseline data collection, which may adversely affect the reliability of the TAF until revised.

2017 WASHINGTON AVIATION SYSTEM PLAN (WASP)

Assessment: The WSDOT WASP statewide and airport category based aircraft and operations projections provide a reasonable basis for estimating KLS activity for the current twenty year planning period.

The current statewide aviation system planning for Washington is provided by the Washington State Aviation System Plan (WASP). According to WSDOT Aviation staff, the WASP forecasts, published in July 2017, were developed with a different purpose than the previous system plan forecast (LATS). As a result, the regional analysis and projections contained in the LATS forecast are not maintained in the WASP.

The WASP provides statewide projections of specific measures of commercial and general aviation activity. The forecasts are also organized by airport classification, but no individual airport or geographic regional analysis was performed. Southwest Washington Regional Airport is designated a “Regional” airport by WSDOT. The general aviation forecasts include based aircraft and non-commercial operations.

The WASP forecasts for general aviation activity reflect consistently lower activity levels than the LATS forecast it replaces. The downward adjustments are consistent with the effects of The Great Recession and its aftermath. For example, the WASP 2014 estimate of 7,209 statewide based aircraft is 25.8 percent lower than the nearest LATS forecast year (2015) with 9,712 based aircraft. Annual general aviation aircraft operations are also adjusted downward by approximately 23 percent.

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Based Aircraft

The WASP projects the number of based aircraft at the 35 Regional airports in Washington to increase at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent between 2014 and 2034, compared to statewide growth of 1.1 percent.

Annual Aircraft Operations

The WASP projects non-commercial aircraft operations at the 35 Regional airports in Washington to increase at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent between 2014 and 2034, compared to statewide growth of 0.7 percent.

2007 WASHINGTON LONG TERM AIR TRANSPORTATION STUDY (LATS)

Assessment: The LATS forecasts (raw numbers) are no longer valid due to the development of the 2017 WASP forecast. However, the underlying assumptions regarding aviation activity in the Southwest Washington region remain valid and provide a reasonable basis for estimating future activity within the updated WASP forecasts.

As noted earlier, the LATS forecast has been replaced with the 2017 WASP forecast as the official state aviation system plan forecast. As a result, the forecast levels of aviation activity are no longer valid. However, based on a review of the LATS analysis, it is evident that the regional emphasis developed in the LATS remains valid.

The LATS analysis of regional general aviation activity was organized around four “special emphasis regions” including Southwest Washington, which was composed of Cowlitz and Clark counties.6

The analysis of the Southwest Washington region noted several factors that were expected to affect future aviation activity, most notably that income and population growth would exceed statewide averages, and the limited, even declining, number of public use airports available in the region to accommodate future demand. Based on this analysis, the LATS concluded that growth in based aircraft in the Southwest Washington region would exceed the projected statewide rate, while annual aircraft operations would increase at approximately the same rate. The region currently has seven public use airports, down from eight in 2006 and its based aircraft total appears to have declined similar to the reported declines statewide.

The LATS provided aviation activity forecasts for a 2005-2030 planning period. Forecasts were developed for several commercial and general aviation activity segments both on a statewide and regional basis.

6 Long Term Air Transportation Study (LATS), Chapter 4: Regional Activity.

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Based Aircraft

The LATS projected the number of based aircraft in the Southwest Washington Region to increase at an average annual rate of 1.74 percent between 2005 and 2030, compared to annual statewide growth of 1.49 percent. As reflected in 2017 WASP forecast, economic changes experienced over the ten years have reduced overall growth rate expectations; however the relative growth of the Southwest Washington Region versus statewide activity that was defined in LATS forecast appears to remain valid and could reasonably be applied to the WASP statewide forecast.

Annual Aircraft Operations

The LATS projected general aviation aircraft operations in both the Southwest Washington Region and statewide to increase at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent between 2005 and 2030. The common growth rates defined in LATS suggests that a similar relationship could be derived from WASP forecast of non-commercial aircraft operations.

Table 3-8 summarizes the based aircraft and operations forecasts currently available for KLS. As noted earlier, the airport-specific LATS forecast for KLS is no longer in use.

TABLE 3-8: KLS BASED AIRCRAFT & GA OPERATIONS FORECAST / PROJECTION SUMMARY

FORECAST 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 AAR 2017 FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Operations 42,124 45,471 49,089 53,013 57,255 1.55%1 (FAA: projection - non-forecast) 2017 FAA Terminal Area Forecast 68 75 82 82 82 0.83%1 (TAF) Based Aircraft Operations Per Based Aircraft 620 -- (OPBA) 606 599 647 698

2011 Airport Master Plan Operations 47,889 51,845 56,127 -- -- 1.60%2

2011 Airport Master Plan Based 94 101 109 -- -- 1.96% Aircraft Operations Per Based Aircraft 510 513 515 ------(OPBA) 1. AAR: annual average rate of growth (2016-2037) 2. AAR: annual average rate of growth (2007-2027)

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Updated Aviation Activity Forecasts

BASED AIRCRAFT

Five additional based aircraft forecasts were developed for KLS, for comparison with the existing forecasts described earlier. Similar to the evaluation contained in the 2011 Airport Master Plan, one of the forecasts utilizes 2017 Washington State Aviation System Plan (WASP) forecasting as the basis for determining future activity at KLS. A second group of forecasts (four variations) was developed based on historic KLS share of the active U.S. general aviation aircraft fleet.

A review of historic local and regional population and based aircraft activity at KLS did not identify any statistical correlations that supported using population as the basis for estimating future based aircraft activity at KLS. As a result, no population-based projections were developed. Despite the absence of a statistical correlation and a measurable cause and effect, it is important to emphasize that population growth is generally recognized as one of many factors needed to contribute to growth in airport activity.

2018 Update: Following the FAA review of the draft aviation activity forecasts, it was determined that market share projections based on national data do not provide the best indication of future growth at KLS. However, the continued use of the market share technique was determined to be appropriate, when applied to a regional data set. The U.S. market share forecasts for KLS were discarded in favor of using a fixed market share projection for the FAA’s Northwest-Mountain (ANM) region that includes Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.

The original forecasts presented in the following section have not been modified. The updated recommended forecast has been added. The issues related to accuracy of historical based aircraft numbers attributed to KLS limit the ability to assess changes in market that may have occurred over time. For this reason, the forecast will be based partly on market share that can be currently verified and adjusted as needed to reflect anticipated development activities that are expected to directly contribute to an increase in based aircraft.

2017 FORECAST - MODIFIED WASP FORECAST

This forecast was developed by using the 2017 WASP forecast of statewide general aviation (GA) based aircraft as the baseline for applying the regional analysis assumptions contained in the previous state aviation system plan (2007 LATS). The WASP forecast projects the statewide general aviation fleet will grow at an annual average rate of 1.1 percent between 2014 and 2034.

The 2007 LATS forecast assumed that the Southwest Washington region (Cowlitz and Clark County) airports would outpace statewide growth in based aircraft between 2005 and 2030 by a factor of approximately 1.15. In 2005, the Southwest Washington region, which included KLS and seven other public use airports, accounted for 4.93 percent of the statewide based aircraft total and was projected to increase to 5.24 percent by 2030.

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A December 2017 review of based aircraft at the seven public use airports currently in operation in the region7 was conducted from FAA Airport Master Record 5010-1 forms and most recent airport planning information, where available. The total based aircraft count from these records is 362, which represents approximately 5.0 percent of the 2014 statewide total (7,209) presented in the WASP. The ability to increase the region’s share of the statewide general aviation fleet despite the loss of an airport with significant capacity further underscores the strength of local market.

It is noted that KLS also experienced a decline in based aircraft (approximately 9.5 percent) during this period. However, a significant portion of the decline can be traced to a single event (the demolition of 20 hangar units) rather than overall market conditions. In December 2017, KLS airport management reported a current hangar waiting list of 12 tenants, and all associated aircraft are currently located at other airports.

As noted earlier, the analysis contained in the 2007 Washington Long Term Air Transportation Study (LATS) recognized the potential for stronger growth in based aircraft the Southwest Washington region, compared to statewide expectations. The economic conditions that supported this conclusion are largely unchanged over time, while some of airport-specific conditions have actually intensified, which is expected to result in growth in activity at KLS. A review of the population, economic and airport-specific conditions in the region suggests that earlier assumptions supporting regional growth potential remain valid and provide an appropriate basis for developing updated forecasts.

Further analysis of the current airport conditions in Southwest Washington suggest that three of the four publicly-owned airports (KLS, Pearson Field in Vancouver, and Grove Field in Camas) are best positioned to accommodate future demand in the region. Woodland State Airport, located 18 miles south of KLS, has removed all hangars in recent years and airport management does not anticipate accommodating new hangars due to several site constraints. The three privately owned airports appear to have limited expansion potential and their long-term compatibility with growing residential development is unknown.

Some loss of based aircraft within the region may be inevitable simply based on the limited number of airports available to accommodate demand. For Clark County aircraft owners in particular, airports located in the adjacent Portland metro area, even extending to St. Helens provide viable, if not ideal, choices. However, it is evident that maximizing the development potential of the airports located in the region will be a key factor in accommodating regional demand.

The expectations for growth in the statewide general aviation fleet were adjusted downward in the 2017 WASP forecasts, both in terms of actual numbers and forecast growth rates. This adjustment represented the “re-set” to a new reality for general aviation in Washington following the Great Recession. As

7 Evergreen Airport (Vancouver) closed in 2006.

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reflected in the long term aviation forecasts developed by FAA over last decade-plus, periodic resets in individual year data are common, although the relatively modest growth assumptions in the forecasts are typically maintained with minor adjustments.

The modified WASP forecast is based on the following assumptions:

• The Southwest Washington region share of the Washington statewide general aviation fleet will increase from 5.0 to 5.25 percent between 2017 and 2037; and

• The KLS share of Southwest Washington region based aircraft fleet will increase slightly in response to near term conditions (active hangar waiting list, etc.), then be maintained near current levels through 2037 as other airports also expand their based aircraft fleets.

Table 3-9 summarizes the WASP-derived based aircraft forecasts for KLS.

TABLE 3-9: KLS & SW WASHINGTON REGION MARKET SHARE OF WASP – FORECAST

SW WASHINGTON KLS MARKET KLS WASHINGTON SW WASHINGTON REGION SHARE % OF SW BASED YEAR STATE GENERAL REGION MARKET GENERAL WASHINGTON AIRCRAFT AVIATON FLEET SHARE % AVIATON FLEET REGION (LATS/WASP Historical) 2005 8,115 4.9% 400 21.0% 841 2014 7,209 5.0% 362 14.1% 511 WASP Forecast 2017 7,446 5.0% 372 18.0% 67 2022 7,889 5.1% 402 18.9% 76 2027 8,350 5.2% 430 18.6% 80 2032 8,816 5.2% 458 18.3% 84 2037 9,309 5.3% 489 18.0% 88 * Figures interpolated and extrapolated 1. TAF historical data

2017 FORECAST – KLS MARKET SHARE – U.S.

A market share analysis was conducted that evaluated the KLS based aircraft fleet as part of the U.S. Active General Aviation Fleet.8 The airport’s current and two previous master plans provide KLS based aircraft counts for 1999, 2007 and 2017 as estimates of current activity used in forecasting. When combined, these counts provide a general indication activity over an extended (18-year) period. The active U.S. General Aviation Fleet data for 1999, 2007 and 2017 is compared with the KLS data to determine historic market share levels and change over time (see Table 3-10).

8 FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2017-2037

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During this period, the based aircraft totals reported at KLS experienced an overall decline from 74 to 67 aircraft (-9.5%). During the same period, the FAA reports that active U.S. fleet declined from 211,447 to 209,800 (-0.8%). The two trends result in declining market share that averaged -0.514 percent annually.

Despite the appearance of a well-established trend, it is important to recognize that specific events at KLS including the recent demolition of hangars have directly contributed to the overall loss of based aircraft, and therefore a declining market share. This event was related to addressing specific facility issues and is not a reflection of local market conditions. Without the hangar removal, KLS based aircraft totals and market share would have likely remained steady or increased slightly. The airport anticipates replacement of the demolished hangars will occur within the next five years and is working with FAA to ensure that future development is effectively coordinated in the current airport master plan. Airport management is currently in discussions with prospective tenants interested in constructing new hangars on the airport.

Several projections were developed to reflect a variety of KLS market share scenarios:

• Market Share Projection 1: Maintain 1999-2017 Trend (Declining Share). This projection assumes that the 18-year rate of declining KLS market share will continue at the same rate over the next twenty years. This projection reflects an average annual growth rate of -0.47 percent between 2017 and 2037.

• Market Share Projection 2: Halve 1999-2017 Trend (Declining Share). This projection assumes that the 18-year rate of declining KLS market share will slow by approximately half over the next twenty years. This projection reflects an average annual growth rate of -0.15 percent between 2017 and 2037.

• Market Share Projection 3: Maintain 2017 KLS Market Share (Neutral Share). This projection assumes that the 2007 KLS market share will hold steady, and be maintained over the next twenty years. This projection reflects an average annual growth rate of 0.07 percent between 2017 and 2037.

• Market Share Projection 4: Maintain 1999/2007 KLS Market Share (Increasing Share). This projection assumes that the average of the 1999 and 2007 KLS market share will be regained over the next twenty years, which represents an increase over 2017 market share. This projection reflects an average annual growth rate of 0.57 percent between 2017 and 2037.

All of the market share projections are strongly influenced by the very modest growth (<0.1% annual) forecast by FAA for the general aviation fleet over the twenty years. Two of the projections result in a decline in KLS based aircraft; one projection is essentially flat; and one projection results in an increase in based aircraft. Table 3-10 summarizes the market share projections developed for KLS.

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TABLE 3-10: KLS SHARE OF U.S. BASED AIRCRAFT - FORECAST

U.S. ACTIVE GENERAL YEAR KLS BASED AIRCRAFT KLS SHARE OF U.S. FLEET AVIATION FLEET1 KLS Historic Market Share (US) 1999: 0.045% 2007: 0.0320% 2017: 0.0319% Projection 1– Maintain 18-Year Trend (-0.47% AAR)2 2017 67 209,800 0.0319% 2022 65 209,655 0.0311% 2027 64 209,805 0.0303% 2032 62 210,920 0.0295% 2037 61 213,420 0.0288% Projection 2 – Halve 18-Year Trend (-0.15% AAR)2 2017 67 209,800 0.0319% 2022 66 209,655 0.0311% 2027 65 209,805 0.0303% 2032 65 210,920 0.0295% 2037 65 213,420 0.0288% Projection 3 – Maintain Current Market Share (0.07% AAR)2 2017 67 209,800 0.0319% 2022 67 209,655 0.0319% 2027 67 209,805 0.0319% 2032 67 210,920 0.0319% 2037 68 213,420 0.0319% Projection 4 – Apply 1999/2007 Market Share (0.57% AAR)2 2017 67 209,800 0.0319% 2022 73 209,655 0.0350% 2027 73 209,805 0.0350% 2032 74 210,920 0.0350% 2037 75 213,420 0.0350% 1. FAA Aerospace Forecasts FY 2017-2037 2. AAR: annual average rate of growth (1999-2017)

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2018 FORECAST – KLS MARKET SHARE – ANM

An updated based aircraft forecast was developed for KLS that ties local airport activity to the FAA forecasts for the ANM9 region. The approach assumes a strong correlation between activity at KLS and trends within its immediate seven-state region. While this is a very broad method for projecting future activity, the scarcity of definitive local data renders more precise methods ineffective. The long term growth expectations for based aircraft in the FAA‘s ANM Region are modest. There is no indication that growth in activity at KLS will deviate significantly from the FAA’s expectations for the overall region.

The Terminal Area Forecast Summary - Fiscal Years 2017-2045 provides the FAA’s long term forecast for based aircraft for each of the FAA’s nine geographic regions and nationally. The ANM forecast projects an annual average growth rate of 0.93 percent over the 29-year forecast period, compared to a slightly lower rate of 0.781 percent nationally.

One specific adjustment was made in the projection to capture an anticipated near-term spike in based aircraft associated with planned hangar construction. The projection includes an increase of six (6) aircraft by 2022, which increases KLS market share slightly above current levels (an increase from 0.271 to 0.277 percent). The projections beyond 2022 maintain the adjusted (0.277%) market share for KLS, which is then applied to the corresponding future years in the TAF ANM based aircraft forecast.

Based on the inconsistency found in historical KLS activity data noted earlier, it was determined that attempting to gauge past changes in local market share would not provide a reliable indication of an established trend. Therefore, it was determined that factoring in near-term development for the initial 5- year (2022) forecast, and then maintaining the projected 2022 KLS share of the ANM market for the long term projections, provides reasonable estimates of activity to guide future planning at KLS.

Table 3-11 summarizes the regional (ANM) market share projections developed for KLS. With the one- time hangar construction adjustment accounted for, the average annual rate of growth over the twenty year planning period is 1.12 percent; the average annual rate of growth in the final 15 years of the planning period mirrors the ANM rate of 0.93 percent.

9 ANM Region: WA, OR, ID, MT, UT, WY, CO

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TABLE 3-11: KLS SHARE OF ANM BASED AIRCRAFT – FORECAST 1,2

ANM REGION BASED YEAR KLS BASED AIRCRAFT KLS SHARE OF U.S. FLEET AIRCRAFT Short Term Hangar Construction Adjustment / Maintain ANM Market Share (1.12% AAR)2 2016 64 23,628 0.2709% 2022 70 25,248 0.2773% 2027 73 26,418 0.2773% 2032 76 27,561 0.2773% 2037 80 28,761 0.2773% 1. FAA Northwest Mountain Region (ANM) 2. FAA TAF Summary Report FY 2017-2045 3. AAR: annual average rate of growth (2016-2045)

Summary (Recommended Based Aircraft Forecast)

Based on available data and relevancy, the use a (ANM) regional market share forecast is recommended as the preferred based aircraft forecast for KLS. This projection assumes that KLS will experience future growth in based aircraft that is consistent with the FAA’s long term forecast for the region. It is noted that the recommended adjustment of 6 additional based aircraft by 2022 to reflect anticipated near term hangar construction represents a nominal increase over and above the current KLS: ANM market share when applied to the FAA ANM forecast for 2022.

The KLS based aircraft forecasts presented in the master plan are summarized in Table 3-12 and depicted in Figure 3-3. The recommended forecast results in a net increase of 16 based aircraft over the twenty-year planning period, which reflects an average annual growth of 1.12 percent. As noted earlier, the average annual rate of growth in the final 15 years of the forecast mirrors the ANM rate of 0.93 percent.

The recommended based aircraft forecast was determined to provide the most reasonable projection among all projections prepared. The projection assumes that KLS will be able sustain growth in its based aircraft fleet due to the strength of market conditions within its airport service area and KLS’s competitive position in the region. Airport management’s current focus on near term construction of several new aircraft hangars at KLS demonstrates the Airport’s capacity to support future growth. A review of the population, economic and airport-specific conditions in the region suggests that earlier assumptions supporting regional growth potential remain valid and provide an appropriate basis for developing updated forecasts.

The use of development reserves is recommended for determining activity-dependent facility needs such as aircraft parking and hangar demand to account for normal uncertainty associated with forecasting general aviation activity. It appears that a development reserve equal to 100 percent of projected twenty- year growth in based aircraft (+16 aircraft) will be adequate to accommodate a reasonable amount of unanticipated demand during the current planning period. This would translate into a need to plan for storage (apron or hangar) of 32 additional aircraft in the twenty year planning period.

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TABLE 3-12: KLS BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST SUMMARY

PROJECTION 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 AAR 2017 FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) 68 75 82 82 82 0.83%1 2011 Airport Master Plan 94 101 109 -- -- 1.96%2 KLS : US GA Fleet Market Share 1 67 65 64 62 61 -0.47%1 KLS : US GA Fleet Market Share 2 67 66 65 65 65 -0.15%1 KLS : US GA Fleet Market Share 3 67 67 67 67 68 0.07%1 KLS : US GA Fleet Market Share 4 67 73 73 74 75 0.57%1 2017 WASP – Modified 67 76 80 84 88 1.37%1 KLS: FAA ANM Market Share (Recommended) 64 70 73 76 80 1.12%3 Selected Forecast 64 70 73 76 80 1.12%3

1. AAR: annual average rate of growth (2016-2037) 2. AAR: annual average rate of growth (2007-2027) 3. AAR: annual average rate of growth (2017-2037) Note: percentages may differ due to rounding

FIGURE 3-3: KLS BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS

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Based Aircraft Fleet Mix

The Airport’s current mix of based aircraft consists of single-engine and multi-engine piston aircraft, business jets, and a turbine helicopter. Consistent with the FAA’s long term forecast of the U.S. general aviation fleet, the based aircraft fleet mix at KLS is expected to become more diverse during the twenty year planning period. Worldwide general aviation aircraft manufacturing trends suggest that the ongoing development of single-engine turboprops and smaller business jets will represent a growing share of the fleet as older piston-engine aircraft are removed from service. A portion of the traditional piston-engine aircraft fleet attrition is expected to be offset by a growing light sport aircraft and experimental aircraft fleet.

Table 3-13 summarizes the projected based aircraft fleet mix for the planning period. Figures 3-4 and 3- 5 depict the current (2017) and long-term (2037) distribution of based aircraft by type.

TABLE 3-13: FORECAST BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX

AAR% BY AIRCRAFT TYPE 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 AC TYPE Single Engine Piston/LSA 54 59 60 60 61 0.61% Sport Multi-Engine Piston 7 7 8 7 6 -0.77%

Turboprop 0 1 2 4 5 11.33%1

Business Jet 2 2 2 3 4 3.53%

Helicopter 1 1 1 2 4 7.18%

Total Based Aircraft 64 70 73 76 80 1.12% 1. AAR: annual average rate of growth (2023-2037) (15 year period of forecast activity)

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FIGURE 3-4: BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX (2017)

FIGURE 3-5: FORECAST BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX (2037)

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Aircraft Operations

As a non-towered airport, overall operational data (total number of takeoffs and landings) for KLS is limited to estimates. Due to limited data, defining current operations levels, and therefore future activity, presents a significant challenge. As noted earlier, several operations estimates and forecasts exist for KLS. However, these data appear to rely on a single source (FAA TAF data), which reflects comparatively high aircraft utilization levels. The FAA updates the TAF with data provided by airport sponsors through updates of their FAA Airport Master Record Form (5010-1). However, as noted earlier, the ability of airport management to accurate estimate annual takeoffs and landings at a non-towered airport is very limited without a formal activity counting effort. For this reason, the use of 5010 estimates for annual aircraft operations should be viewed as a rough approximation at best, unless it is supported by actual activity counts.

The current 5010 for KLS lists 40,860 operations and 64 based aircraft, which results in an operations per based aircraft (OPBA) ratio of 638. Activity at KLS includes both locally-generated air traffic and transient activity. KLS accommodates regular helicopter and fixed wing flight training activity from nearby airports including Hillsboro and Olympia. KLS is located along the busy north-south I-5 corridor flight path commonly used for VFR and IFR flight training. It is estimated that flight training at KLS currently accounts for approximately one-third of overall airport activity.

Several methods were used to develop forecasts of current and future aircraft operations at KLS. The new forecasts are compared to the existing operations forecasts described earlier in the chapter.

ACTIVITY COMPARISON: NEARBY TOWERED GA AIRPORTS

For additional regional context, a basic review of activity at two towered general aviation airports (Olympia and Tacoma Narrows) was conducted to gauge the relationships between their operations levels and based aircraft. The ratio of operations per based aircraft (OPBA) is a common method of estimating activity at non-towered airports. The ability to approximate this activity is based on comparisons to towered airports with similar activity. Although the activity at each airport is unique, the comparison of activity provides a rough gauge. Since the control towers operate on a 12-hour daily schedule at these airports, it can be reasonably assumed that actual aircraft operations levels will be slightly higher, although neither airport has significant night operations.

The Tacoma Narrows (TIW) air traffic control tower (ATCT) recorded a total of 71,652 general aviation operations in 2016. The airport currently has 109 based aircraft. The resulting OPBA (657) is consistent with FAA estimates for high activity general aviation airports located in large urban areas. The airport has significant flight training, local and transient traffic, and other general aviation use. Factors that contribute to activity include a 5,000-foot runway, instrument landing system (ILS) and 4 additional instrument approaches, two fixed base operators, an additional flight school, an airport restaurant, and a large population base in the airport service area.

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The Olympia Regional Airport (OLM) ATCT recorded a total of 41,691 general aviation operations in 2016. The airport currently has 126 based aircraft. The resulting OPBA (331) is consistent with FAA estimates for busy general aviation airports. Factors that contribute to activity include two runways (primary runway is 5,500 feet), an ILS and 4 additional instrument approaches, two fixed base operators/flight schools, and a large population base in the airport service area.

The airport setting and the overall volume and composition of air traffic at Olympia appears to more similar to KLS than Tacoma Narrows. Although not definitive, the Olympia OPBA provides a reasonable comparison when estimating current activity levels at KLS.

2017 FORECAST – FAA NATIONAL GROWTH RATE WITH KLS 5010 BASELINE

This updated operations forecast utilizes FAA Form 5010-1 (Airport Master Record) to establish baseline year (2017) activity. The FAA 5010 serves as basic point-in-time activity estimate that is periodically updated by FAA with data provided by airport sponsors. The FAA publishes the FAA Aerospace Forecast annually to provide system wide assessments and long term forecasts of U.S. civil aviation activity, including commercial and general aviation segments. The FAA forecasts that general aviation aircraft activity (measured in hours flown) will increase nationally at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent through 2037.

By applying the national growth rate to the 5010-defined baseline activity at KLS, a projection is developed that is consistent in terms of annual growth rate with nationwide activity. The forecast increases annual aircraft operations at KLS from 40,860 to 48,879 by 2037. This projection is summarized in Table 3-13 and depicted on Figure 3-6.

2017 FORECAST – FAA NPIAS FORMULA

FAA Order 5090.3C. Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems, suggests a forecast methodology that relies on a general formula for estimating operations at non-towered airports by utilizing an activity ratio that is applied to current and forecast based aircraft. For busy general aviation airports with more itinerant traffic, an estimate of 350 annual operations per based aircraft can be used as a guideline. This ratio results in a current year estimate of 23,450 operations at KLS. By applying this factor to the forecast of based aircraft, annual operations increase from 23,450 to 30,800 by 2037, which reflects an average annual growth rate of 1.37 percent. This projection is summarized in Table 3-14 and depicted on Figure 3-6.

2017 FORECAST – FAA REGRESSION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT NON- TOWERED AIRPORTS

This forecast uses a statistical regression model approved by the FAA to estimate operations at non- towered airports. The report, entitled Model for Estimating General Aviation Operations at Non- Towered Airports Using Towered and Non-Towered Airport Data (GRA, Inc., 2001) presents the

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methodology and formula for the model. Several independent variables are used in the model, including airport characteristics, demographics, and geographic features. The model was created by using a combined data set for small towered and non-towered general aviation airports with the addition of a dummy variable to distinguish the two airport types. The following variables are included in the model:

• Based Aircraft (at the subject airport); • Percent of aircraft based at the airport among general aviation airports within 100 miles; • Number of FAR Part 141 flight training schools at the airport; • Population within 100 miles; and • Ratio of population within 25 miles and 100 miles.

The model is designed to consider a variety of elements that directly and indirectly affect airport activity. This forecast uses the current year analysis of the model to estimate annual aircraft operations. The accompanying forecast of operations is developed from the based aircraft forecast and reflects several key assumptions: 1 percent annual population growth; no changes in the number of FAR Part 141 flight schools at the airport; and no change in the number of airports located in the 100 mile radius surrounding the airport.

The regression model developed for KLS produced 18,100 aircraft operations for 2017. The associated forecast increases annual aircraft operations to 23,800 by 2037, which reflects an average annual growth rate of 1.38 percent between 2017 and 2037. This projection is summarized in Table 3-14 and depicted on Figure 3-6. The worksheet for the regression analysis is summarized below.

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Kelso Airport Master Plan Operations Estimate

GA Operations Regression Equation 15, Data for Non-Towered GA Airports10

25 = 775 + 241( ) 0.14( 2) + 31,478(% 100 ) + 5,777( ) + 0.001( 100) 3,736( ) + 12,121( ) 100 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 − 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 − 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 Independent Variable Definitions

• BA = Total based aircraft at an airport • BA2 = Total based aircraft at an airport squared • %in100mi = Percentage of based aircraft among based aircraft at GA airports within 100 miles • VITFSnum = Number of FAR 141 pilot schools on airport • Pop100 = Population within 100 miles • WACAORAK = 1 if airport is in Washington, , Oregon, or Alaska; otherwise, 0. • Pop25/Pop100 = Ratio of population within 25 miles to population within 100 miles Independent Variable Values

• BA = 67 • BA2 = 4,489 • Aircraft based within 100 miles = 4,769 • %in100mi = 67/4,769 = 0.014049 • VITFSnum = 0 • Pop100 = 4,726,517 • WACAORAK = 1 • Pop25/Pop100 = 156,154/4,726,517 = 0.033038

Total Estimated Annual Operations at Kelso (2017)

= 775 + 241(67) 0.14(4,489) + 31,478(0.014049) + 5,777(0) + 0.001(4,726,517) 3,736(1) + 12,121(0.033038)

𝑂𝑂 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂 − − = 775 + 16,147 628 + 442 + 0 + 4,727 3,736(1) + 400

𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂 − − ( ) = ,

𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶𝑶 𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹 𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 Future Year Estimates

Assumptions:

• Based aircraft forecast o 2022 = 76 o 2027 = 80 o 2032 = 84 o 2037 = 88 • %in100mi is constant throughout future year projections (0.014049) • No future flight schools (VITFSnum = 0 for all years) • Average population growth = 1.0% for Pop100 and Pop25 variables Year Estimated Operations (Rounded) 2022 20,400 2027 21,500 2032 22,600 2037 23,800

Note: this projection was prepared for comparison with other forecasts, but is not recommended as the selected forecast for KLS.

10 Model for Estimating General Aviation Operations at Non-Towered Airports Using Towered and Non-Towered Airport Data, GRA, Inc., 2001. https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/general_aviation/media/GAModel3F.doc

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2017 FORECAST – WASP FORECAST (MODIFIED APPLICATION)

This forecast uses the regional analysis assessment described in the WASP-derived based aircraft forecast to develop an updated operations forecast for KLS. The Southwest Washington region maintained a steady market share (averaging 4.21 percent) of statewide general aviation operations in the LATS 2005-2030 forecast.11 This market share was applied to the 2017-2034 WASP statewide forecast of Non-Commercial Aircraft Operations to develop this projection.

Based on these inputs, general aviation operations in the region are projected to increase from 119,800 to 144,500 between 2017 and 2037. Based on current estimates of air traffic, the distribution of general aviation operations in the Southwest Washington region is divided among KLS (22%), Pearson Field (45%), Grove Field (8%), and other airports (25%). This forecast assumes that KLS share of regional general aviation operations will gradually increase from 22 percent to 26 percent by 2037. The increased KLS market share reflects the current hangar waiting list at KLS and the airport’s comparative ability to expand facilities to accommodate demand.

The estimated 22 percent market share for KLS results in approximately 23,450 annual operations for 2017. The forecast projects an increase from 23,450 to 30,800 operations by 2037, which reflects an average annual growth rate of 1.37 percent. This projection is summarized in Table 3-14 and depicted on Figure 3-6.

2018 FORECAST – FAA NPIAS FORMULA

The FAA review of the preliminary aircraft operations forecasts identified several issues related to data quality and assumptions. Based on the feedback provided by FAA, an updated forecast was developed that maintains the 350 OPBA ratio recommended in the original FAA NPIAS Formula forecast, but revises the projection to reflect the adjusted (64) based aircraft count for 2017, and the updated recommended based aircraft forecast described earlier.

This projection results in a current year estimate of 22,400 operations at KLS. By applying the 350 OPBA ratio to the forecast of based aircraft, annual operations increase from 22,400 to 28,800 by 2037, which reflects an average annual growth rate of 1.12 percent. This projection is summarized in Table 3-14 and depicted on Figure 3-6.

11 GA Operations by Special Emphasis Region, LATS Chapter 7. Exhibit 7-9, July 2009.

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TABLE 3-14: UPDATED GA AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS – KLS

PROJECTION 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

NPIAS Formula1 23,450 26,600 28,000 29,400 30,800 (1.37% AAR 2017-2037) FAA Non-Towered Equation2 18,100 20,400 21,500 22,600 23,800 (1.38% AAR 2017-2037) FAA National Growth Rate3 40,860 42,732 44,690 46,738 48,879 (0.90% AAR 2017-2037) 2007 WASP-Modified4 26,356 28,814 31,506 34,435 37,576 (1.79% AAR 2017-2037) Recommended Forecast NPIAS OPBA Formula + Revised 22,400 24,500 25,550 26,600 28,000 Recommended Based Aircraft Forecast1 (1.12% AAR 2017-2037) 1 FAA Field Formulation for NPIAS 2 Model for Estimating General Aviation Operations at Non-Towered Airports (FAA 2001) 3 FAA National GA Fleet Growth Rate with FAA 5010 Baseline 4 2017 WASP Forecast modified with LATS regional emphasis assumptions AAR: Average Annual Rate (Growth)

FAA 2018-2019 Review of Preliminary GA Operations Forecast

The FAA indicated in its review of the preliminary operations forecasts that all forecasts should share a common baseline number. The FAA also indicated that use of a median projection to represent a mid- range projection within a range of projections (forecast envelope) is not appropriate.

Forecaster Response and Recommendations

The four new preliminary GA operations forecasts presented were developed independently since there was no clear consensus on the baseline level of annual operations (as demonstrated by widely ranging annual aircraft operations estimates and forecasts in the past). This situation was confirmed by the numbers produced through the different (independent) methodologies used to gauge current operations levels and project future activity. For example, two methods of estimating air traffic at non-towered airports that are accepted by FAA (the NPIAS OPBA ratio and FAA Regression model), produced significantly different aircraft operations numbers for the same base year (2017). In future years, the array of data challenges at KLS may be mitigated through an extended period of consistent and accurate airport sponsor data reporting, and the subsequent management of the data by FAA in its TAF.

The use of an average (median) projection for the recommended operations forecast was originally intended to compensate for the inconclusive data noted earlier. Any attempts to apply other statistical

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methods such as weighted averaging would not improve the quality of the data, and worse, creates an impression of precision and meaningful analysis not supported by the underlying data.

Recommended GA Operations Forecast

1. The inconsistencies identified in 5010 and TAF data make the “FAA National Growth Rate” forecast obsolete since it relied on obsolete 5010 data for its base; 2. The other three forecasts (NPIAS Formula, FAA Non-Towered Equation, and the 2007 WASP- Modified) each provide reasonable estimates of activity, although there are no empirical data supporting selection of any one of the projections over the others; 3. The original operations forecasts will be maintained (unchanged) for reference; and 4. Based on FAA review, an updated NPIAS Formula projection (standard OPBA ratio, updated based aircraft forecast) is recommended as the preferred GA operations forecast.

The recommended forecast falls within a relatively narrow range of “reasonable” projections and reflects the FAA opinion regarding use of a median projection in forecasting.

Summary (Recommended GA Operations Forecast)

The updated general aviation (GA) operations forecasts for KLS are summarized in Table 3-14 and depicted in Figure 3-6. The recommended forecast is based on the NPIAS-defined 350 operations per based aircraft (OPBA) ratio presented in the preliminary forecasts, adjusted to reflect the updated based aircraft forecast that was generated following FAA review. The recommended GA operations forecast projects an increase from 22,400 to 28,000 operations by 2037, which reflects an average annual growth rate of 1.12 percent.

The recommended GA operations forecast was determined to provide the most reasonable projection among the several preliminary projections considered. The projection reflects the anticipated growth in based aircraft and the ability of KLS to sustain both local and transient activity due to the strength of market conditions within its airport service area and KLS’s competitive position in the region.

It is noted that the base year aircraft operations total is significantly lower than the data currently reported on the FAA 5010-1 Airport Record Form and used by FAA in its current TAF update for KLS. It is recommended that the airport sponsor update the 5010 data to be consistent with the updated master plan forecast, upon FAA approval, and periodically update the annual estimates. This will require airport management to interpolate annual operations between the nearest adjacent 5 year forecast increments for every subsequent 5010 update submitted to FAA until the next master plan forecast update. Periodic estimates can also be supplemented with actual activity counts generated through automated sampling and statistical calculations.

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FIGURE 3-6: GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS FORECAST

Local and Itinerant Operations

General aviation operations consist of aircraft takeoffs and landings conducted by GA aircraft. All aircraft operations are classified as local or itinerant. Local operations are conducted in the vicinity of an airport and include flights that begin and end at the airport. These include local area flight training, touch and go operations, sightseeing, and other flights that do not involve a landing at another airport. Itinerant operations include flights between airports, including cross-country flights. Itinerant operations reflect specific travel between multiple points, often associated with business and personal travel.

The 2011 Airport Master Plan estimated a nearly equal split of local and itinerant traffic. This is also reflected in current FAA operations estimates (FAA 5010 form and TAF). Based on the assessment of current air traffic at KLS, a 48%/52% local/itinerant operational split is recommended for the current twenty year planning period. This air traffic distribution will be applied to selected forecast of aircraft operations and is summarized in Table 3-20, at the end of the chapter.

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GA Aircraft Operations Fleet Mix

It is estimated that single engine piston aircraft currently account for approximately 75 percent of airport operations, followed by multi-engine piston aircraft (4 percent) and turbine fixed wing aircraft (2 percent), and helicopters (19 percent). The helicopter traffic is divided between the locally-based medevac operator and transient flight training.

FAA instrument flight plan filings provide an indication of activity for a small portion of air traffic at KLS. The FAA instrument flight plan data from 2012-2016 indicates an average of 744 operations per year at KLS from this activity segment. This represents approximately 1 to 2 percent of overall airport flight activity, as currently estimated in various data sources. The data also confirms that piston aircraft (single-engine and multi-engine) and turbine aircraft each account for about half of instrument-related flight activity at KLS.

It is expected that the current mix of air traffic will be largely maintained during the twenty-year planning period, although some changes are anticipated to reflect current trends in aircraft manufacturing. These include increased use by business aircraft (turboprops and jets), and helicopters. The growing popularity of single-engine turboprops for personal and business use is also expected affect operational fleet mix at KLS, with 72 percent of the projected 20-year net increase in turboprop operations attributed to single-engine models. The aircraft operations fleet mix forecast is summarized in Table 3-15.

TABLE 3-15: GENERAL AVIATION FORECAST AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FLEET MIX

AAR% AIRCRAFT TYPE 2017 % 2022 % 2027 % 2032 % 2037 % 2017- 2037 Single Engine 16,850 75 18,690 76 19,195 75 19,480 73 20,100 72 0.89% Piston* Multi Engine 860 4 780 3 710 <3 730 <3 760 <3 -0.62% Piston Turboprop 150 <1 240 1 340 1 520 2 820 3 8.87%

Jet 270 1 320 1 370 <2 470 <2 640 2 4.41%

Helicopter 4,230 19 4,410 18 4,855 19 5,320 20 5,600 20 1.41%

Total Operations 22,400 100 24,500 100 25,550 100 26,600 100 28,000 100 1.12%

*Includes Sport and LSA Note: Percentages may not sum due to independent rounding

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2018 Update: The FAA review of the preliminary operations fleet mix forecast suggested that above average growth rates defined for turboprop and business jets were not reasonable, based on historic activity at KLS.

The general statement that the current mix of air traffic “will largely be maintained” is accurately reflected in the forecast fleet mix. The forecast air traffic in the 20-year planning period at KLS continues to be dominated by single- engine and multi-engine piston aircraft (declining from 75 percent to 71 percent over 20 years) with other segments (turbine and helicopters) expected to experience incremental growth. Jet activity is projected to increase from <1% to slightly less than 3% of total operations over twenty years. Turboprop activity is projected to increase from <1% to 3% during this period. While it is correct that the forecast growth rates for turboprops and jets are higher than for other types of aircraft, the activity continues to represent a small percentage of overall air traffic during the planning period—hence the nominal changes in fleet mix overall.

The forecast growth in jet and turboprop operations is consistent with the increase in business jets and turboprops based at KLS as noted in Table 3-13, and anticipated growth in transient activity, which is consistent with broad industry factors, particularly aircraft manufacturing trends, and ongoing changes in local FBO operations. KLS has accommodated locally-based business jets for many years and it reasonable to assume that as the only regional airport in southwest Washington, KLS has the potential of seeing growth in this activity.

The noted focus on forecast growth rates (overall or average annual) for small data sets falls into the trap of small numbers. The forecast increase of two business jets at KLS over twenty years represents a 100% increase above current levels, which produces above average annual growth rates for both based aircraft and operations levels. But in actual numbers, the forecast represents small incremental changes beyond current activity. As such, it is not reasonable to discard the forecast because the corresponding growth rates fall outside typical rates found in larger data sets.

With these factors in mind, the forecast operational fleet mix summarized in Table 3-15 is recommended as an extension of the recommended based aircraft and annual aircraft operations forecasts presented earlier in the chapter.

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Critical Aircraft (FAA Planning Guidance)

As noted earlier, the selection of design standards for airfield facilities is based upon the characteristics of the aircraft that are expected to use the airport. This aircraft or aircraft type is designated as the “critical aircraft.” The FAA provides the following definitions:

“The critical aircraft is the most demanding aircraft type, or grouping of aircraft with similar characteristics, that make regular use of the airport. Regular use is 500 annual operations, including both itinerant and local operations, but excluding touch-and-go operations. An operation is either a takeoff or landing.” 12

The FAA groups aircraft into five categories (A-E) based upon their approach speeds. Aircraft Approach Categories A and B include small propeller aircraft, many small or medium business jet aircraft, and some larger aircraft with approach speeds of less than 121 knots (nautical miles per hour). Categories C, D, and E consist of the remaining business jets as well as larger jet and propeller aircraft generally associated with commercial and military use with approach speeds of 121 knots or more. The FAA also establishes six airplane design groups (I-VI), based on the wingspan and tail height of the aircraft. The categories range from Airplane Design Group (ADG) I, for aircraft with wingspans of less than 49 feet, to ADG VI for the largest commercial and military aircraft.

The combination of airplane design group and aircraft approach speed for the critical aircraft creates the Airport Reference Code (ARC), which is used to define applicable airfield design standards. At KLS, the Runway ARC and the Airport ARC, which is based on its single runway.

A list of typical general aviation and business aviation aircraft and their respective design categories is presented in Table 3-16. Figure 3-7 illustrates representative aircraft in various design groups. Aircraft with a maximum gross takeoff weight greater than 12,500 pounds are classified as “large aircraft” by the FAA; aircraft 12,500 pounds and less are classified as “small aircraft.”

12 FAA Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5000-17 Critical Aircraft and Regular Use Determination

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TABLE 3-16: GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT & DESIGN CATEGORIES

AIRCRAFT MAXIMUM GROSS AIRPLANE DESIGN AIRCRAFT APPROACH TAKEOFF WEIGHT GROUP CATEGORY (LBS) Grumman American Tiger A I 2,400 Cessna 182 (Skylane) A I 3,100 Cirrus Design SR22 A I 3,400 A36 A I 3,650 Socata/Aerospatiale/Daher TBM 700-930 A I 6,579-7,394 Beechcraft Baron 58 B I 5,500 Cessna 340 B I 5,990 Cessna Citation Mustang B I 8,645 Embraer Phenom 100 B I 10,472 Cessna Citation CJ1+ B I 10,700 Beech King Air A100 B I 11,800 Beechcraft 400A/Premier I B I 16,100 Piper Malibu (PA-46) A II 4,340 Cessna Caravan 675 A II 8,000 Pilatus PC-12 A II 10,450 Cessna Citation CJ2+ B II 12,500 Cessna Citation II B II 13,300 Cessna Citation CJ3 B II 13,870 Beech King Air 350 B II 15,000 Cessna Citation Bravo B II 15,000 Cessna Citation CJ4 B II 16,950 Embraer Phenom 300 B II 17,968 Cessna Citation XLS+ B II 20,200 20/200 B II 28,660 Bombardier Learjet 55 C I 21,500 Beechcraft Hawker 800XP C II 28,000 Gulfstream 200 C II 34,450 Cessna Citation X C II 36,100 Bombardier Challenger 300 C II 37,500 Gulfstream III C II 69,700 Learjet 35A/36A D I 18,300 Gulfstream G450 D II 73,900 Grumman HU-16 Albatross A III 37,500 Bombardier Global Express 5000 C III 92,750

Source: AC 150/5300-13, as amended; aircraft manufacturer data.

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A-I B-I A-II, B-II B-II A-III, B-III 12,500 lbs. or less (small) 12,500 lbs. or less (small) 12,500 lbs. or less (small) Greater than 12,500 lbs. Greater than 12,500 lbs. Beech Baron 55 Beech Baron 58 Super King Air 200 Super King Air 300, 350 DHC Dash 7, Dash 8 Beech Bonanza Beech King Air 100 Pilatus PC-12 Beech 1900 Q-200, Q-300 Cessna 182 Cessna 402 DHC Twin Otter Cessna Citation Excel DC-3 Piper Archer Cessna 421 Cessna Caravan Falcon 20, 50 Convair 580 Piper Seneca Piper Navajo King Air C90 Falcon 200, 900 Fairchild F-27 Piper Cheyenne Citation II, Bravo XLS+ ATR 72 Cessna Citation I Citation CJ3 ATP

C-I, D-I C-II, D-II C-III, D-III C-IV, D-IV D-V Lear 25, 35, 55, 60 Gulfstream II, III, IV Boeing Business Jet B-757 B - 747 Series Israeli Westwind Canadair 600 Gulfstream 650 B-767 B - 777 HS 125-700 Canadair B 737-300 Series DC - 8-70 Lockheed JetStar MD-80, DC-9 DC - 10 Citation X Q-400 MD - 11 Citation Sovereign A319, A320 L 1011 XP Gulfstream V Global Express

BEND OFFICE 1020 SW EMKAY DRIVE # 100 AIRPORT REFERENCE CODES (ARC) BEND, OR 97702 SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT FIGURE 3.7 541.322.8962 AIRPORT REFERENCE CODES (ARC) 541.382.2423 (FAX) AIRPORT MASTER PLAN WWW.CENTURYWEST.COM

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Current and Future Critical Aircraft

The identification of the existing and future critical aircraft for the Airport is required to define the appropriate design standards for various airport facilities. Typically, the updated fleet mix evaluation is compared to the analysis provided by the previous master plan to identify areas of consistency or significant change that should be reflected in the forecast. The evaluation also allows an updated examination of previous assumptions to determine their applicability moving forward.

Previous Assessment of Critical Aircraft

The 2011 Airport Master Plan forecasts identified a medium business jet (Cessna Citation 550) as the current and future critical aircraft for KLS. This aircraft is included in Airplane Design Group II (ADG II). ADG II jet operations at KLS were forecast to increase from 520 to 3,248 between 2007 and 2027.

The analysis of business jet activity contained in the 2011 master plan noted that KLS accommodated a total of 431 business jet operations over a three-year period (2005-2008) that was examined. It was noted that 63 percent (271) of the operations were generated by one aircraft (Citation 550) based at KLS. The data indicated that total business jet activity averaged just under 150 annual operations over the three- year period, which is well below the FAA’s threshold (500 annual operations) required to support a critical aircraft designation. The volume of other ADG II operations was not identified. However, a recent review of KLS IFR flight plan data for 2007 identified approximately 250 ADG II operations, which included both business jets and turboprops.

The 2011 master plan’s summary of operations by type (Exhibit 4-1) listed a total of 1,104 ADG II operations (552 business jet operations + 552 turboprop operations) for the forecast base year 2007. The forecast for 2017 includes 4,610 ADG II business jet and turboprop operations. It is possible that KLS accommodates ADG II business jet and turboprop operations that are not associated with IFR flight plans. However, based on typical operational practices, this might be limited to training flights, short hops to nearby airports, and maintenance flights.

The operators of the business jets currently based at KLS indicate that virtually all of their normal flight activity utilizes an IFR flight plan. This is consistent with the normal operation of business class jets and turboprops, and suggests that the historic IFR flight plan data for KLS captures the majority of its ADG II aircraft activity. Airports with single-engine turboprop aerial applicator or aerial firefighting aircraft, or glider operations, often generate significant VFR activity with ADG II aircraft, although these types of aircraft are not common to KLS.

It appears that the 2011 master plan forecast of critical aircraft activity is substantially inconsistent with the analysis of traffic contained in the forecast itself.

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Updated Critical Aircraft Conclusions

Table 3-17 summarizes recommended forecast activity at KLS by aircraft type, aircraft approach speed (AAC), and airplane design group (ADG). Based on current operations estimates, the current critical aircraft for KLS is a multi-engine piston aircraft included in Airplane Design Group I (ADG I).

Based on forecast air traffic, the future critical aircraft for KLS is a business jet included in Airplane Design Group II (ADG II). As noted in Table 3-17, the transition to ADG II is anticipated early in the planning period, through an increase in the volume of ADG II and III activity.

TABLE 3-17: KLS – GA FORECAST ACTIVITY FLEET MIX (BY AAC + ADG)

HISTORIC FORECAST AIRCRAFT TYPE AAC + 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 ADG Cessna 172 A-I 16,850 18,690 19,195 19,480 20,100 TBM 900 A-I 20 30 70 140 210 Beechcraft Baron 58 B-I 860 780 710 730 760 Piper Cheyenne II (PA-31T) B-I 40 50 70 70 110 Cessna Citation CJ2 B-I 14 20 30 40 80 Pilatus PC-12 A-II 30 80 100 210 320 350 B-II 60 80 100 100 180 Cessna 550 - Citation Bravo B-II 250 280 320 400 520 Bombardier Learjet 60 C-I 2 4 4 10 12 Cessna 750 - Citation X C-II 2 6 6 10 12 Learjet 35 D-I 2 6 6 6 8 Gulfstream IV D-II 0 4 4 4 8 Grumman Albatross A-III 40 60 80 80 80 Total Operations (Fixed Wing) 18,170 20,090 20,695 21,280 22,400 Helicopter 4,230 4,410 4,855 5,320 5,600 TOTAL – GA OPERATIONS 22,400 24,500 25,550 26,600 28,000

Subtotals by AAC A 21,170 23,270 24,300 25,230 26,310

(FW + Heli) B 1,224 1,210 1,230 1,340 1,650

C 4 10 10 20 24

D 2 10 10 10 16 Subtotals by ADG I 17,788 19,580 20,085 20,476 21,280 (FW only) II 342 450 530 724 1,040

III 40 60 80 80 80

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2018 Update: The FAA review of the preliminary operations fleet mix forecast indicated that the base year number of ARC B-II jet operations presented was not supported by historical activity at KLS.

The (2017) base year B-II jet operations number listed in Table 3-17 includes normalized TFMSC data for the Citation 550/560; other B-II jets; blocked/unknown aircraft (flight characteristics typically consistent with business jets); and VFR flight activity as described in the chapter. When these subgroups are accounted for, the base year estimate of 250 B-II jet operations appears to be reasonable.

ARC Note: The current critical aircraft designation represents a change from the previous master plan. However, the updated forecast anticipates that the traffic levels required to meet FAA regular use criteria for ADG II aircraft will occur in the first five years of the planning period. Based on the updated forecast, it is recommended that ARC B-II standards be maintained for planning purposes for all major airfield facilities at KLS. The Airport Sponsor understands that an air traffic review will be required to demonstrate adequate levels of ADG II or greater activity as an element of future FAA-funded rehabilitation projects for the major components of the airfield. Based on the both historical use of the Airport and the near- and long-term activity forecasts, interim downsizing of facilities to ADG I during a period of growing ADG II activity is not recommended.

It is noted that KLS accommodates a variety of business jet traffic. The majority of this activity is generated by Approach Category A and B aircraft, although the airport also accommodates limited amounts of Approach Category C and D aircraft activity (ADG I and II). Available runway length and instrument approach capabilities are two factors currently limiting larger aircraft use. The instrument approach procedure currently available for KLS are not authorized for Approach Category C or D aircraft. An improved instrument procedure (lower approach minimums) that could also accommodate Aircraft Approach Categories A-D would be expected to generate additional activity of that type. KLS currently accommodates two locally-based ADG II business jets that are representative of the future critical aircraft (ARC B-II) identified for KLS.

Table 3-18 summarizes the current and future critical aircraft and airport reference code (ARC) for KLS. An analysis of aircraft use and applicable design standards will be performed in the facility requirements analysis to address specific facility needs.

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TABLE 3-18: KLS – SUMMARY OF CRITICAL AIRCRAFT & ARC

KLS Current “Airport” ARC: B-I

Based on the updated master plan forecasts, the current critical aircraft for KLS is a multi-engine piston aircraft included in Airport Reference Code (ARC) B-I:

Current Critical Aircraft: Raytheon/Beechcraft Baron 58 (representative AC type, multi-engine piston)

KLS Future “Airport” ARC: B-II

Based on the updated master plan forecasts, the future critical aircraft for KLS is a medium business jet included in Airport Reference Code (ARC) B-II:

Future Critical Aircraft: Cessna Citation 550/560 series (representative AC type, multi-engine business jet)

Operational Peaks

Activity peaking is evaluated to identify potential capacity related issues that may need to be addressed through facility improvements or operational changes.

The Peak Month represents the month of the year with the greatest number of aircraft operations (takeoffs and landings). The peak month at KLS occurs during the summer and is estimated to account for approximately 10 percent of annual aircraft operations. The 2011 Airport Master Plan also assumed peak month activity at 10 percent.

Peak Day operations are defined by the average day in the peak month (Design Day) and the busy day in the typical week during peak month (busy day). The Design Day is calculated by dividing peak month operations by 30. For planning purposes, the Busy Day is often estimated to be 25 percent higher than the average day in the peak month (Design Day x 1.25), unless the airport routinely experiences significant seasonal or daily surges in traffic.

The peak activity period in the Design Day is the Design Hour. For planning purposes, the Design Hour operations are estimated to account for 15 percent of Design Day operations (Design Day x 0.15), unless the Airport routinely experiences significant time sensitive surges in daily traffic.

The operational peaks for each forecast year are summarized in Table 3-19. This level of peaking is consistent with the mix of Airport traffic, including flight training, and is expected to remain relatively unchanged during the planning period.

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TABLE 3-19: PEAK GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS FORECAST

ACTIVITY 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Annual Operations (GA) 22,400 24,500 25,550 26,600 28,000

Peak Month Operations (10%) 2,240 2,450 2,555 2,660 2,800 Design Day Operations 75 82 85 89 93 (average day in peak month) Busy Day Operations 93 103 107 111 117 (assumed 125% of design day) Design Hour Operations 11 12 13 13 14 (assumed 15% of design day)

Military Activity

Airport management reports that KLS periodically accommodates military helicopter activity. The majority of the flight activity originates from Joint Base Lewis McChord (JBLM) and often includes night operations. The common operational profile includes a group of two or more helicopters arriving from the north and conducting a series of training operations on the runway and in the traffic pattern. Activity includes normal takeoffs and landings, hovering, and touch and go operations.

The frequency of the training varies, but typically occurs at least twice a month according to airport management. A current estimate of this activity, assuming four traffic pattern circuits per aircraft (8 operations) multiplied by three aircraft, results in 48 operations per month, or 576 per year. Washington National Guard and other military helicopters are also used in emergency response training for common events such as search and rescue, wildfires, and localized flooding; and major events such as the Cascadia Subduction earthquake and Tsunami. The estimate for all military helicopter activity at KLS is 600 operations. This level of activity is expected to remain relatively steady through the twenty year planning period.

No military activity at KLS has been previously identified by FAA in the Airport Master Record (Form 5010) or the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF). The 2011 Airport Master Plan did not identify any existing or forecast military traffic at KLS.

Forecast Summary

The summary of based aircraft and annual aircraft operations forecasts is provided in Table 3-20. As with any long-term facility demand forecast, it is recommended that long-term development reserves be protected to accommodate demand that may exceed current projections. For planning purposes, a reserve capable of accommodating a doubling of the twenty-year preferred forecast demand should be adequate to accommodate unforeseen facility needs during the current planning period.

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Air Taxi activity is projected to account for 4 percent of annual operations, consistent with the FAA TAF percentage. Instrument Operations are projected to account for approximately 1 to 2 percent of total Airport operations.

TABLE 3-20: FORECAST SUMMARY

ACTIVITY 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Itinerant Operations General Aviation 10,748 10,760 12,264 12,768 13,440 Air Taxi 900 980 1,022 1,064 1,120 Military 100 100 100 100 100 Total Itinerant Operations 11,748 12,840 13,386 13,932 14,660 Local Operations (GA) 10,752 11,760 12,264 12,768 13,440 Local Operations (Military) 500 500 500 500 500

Total Local & Itinerant Operations 23,000 25,100 26,150 27,200 28,600

Based Aircraft 64 70 73 76 80

Operations Per Based Aircraft (GA) 350 350 350 350 350

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Comparison with TAF

Master plan forecasts are compared to the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), and significant deviations from the TAF must be approved by FAA. For KLS, the evaluation of existing activity described in this chapter revealed that the TAF base year (2017) data was higher than the updated master plan forecast data. Table 3-21 compares the master plan operations forecasts with the corresponding TAF forecasts. A copy of the FAA forecast approval letter is provided in Appendix C.

TABLE 3-21: KLS – MASTER PLAN FORECAST COMPARED TO TAF AIRPORT AF/TAF ACTIVITY MEASURE YEAR TAF1 FORECAST (AF) (% DIFFERENCE) Enplanements

Base Year 2017 0 0 0.00%

Base Year + 5 Years 2022 0 0 0.00%

Base Year + 10 Years 2027 0 0 0.00% Commercial

Operations Base Year 2017 0 0 0.00%

Base Year + 5 Years 2022 0 0 0.00%

Base Year + 10 Years 2027 0 0 0.00%

Total Operations

Base Year 2017 23,000 42,124 -45.41%

Base Year + 5 Years 2022 25,100 45,471 -44.80%

Base Year + 10 Years 2027 26,150 49,089 -46.73%

Source: TAF Template provided by FAA. 1. TAF issued January 2017

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TABLE 3-22: KLS – MASTER PLAN / TAF FORECAST SUMMARY

Template for Summarizing and Documenting Airport Planning Forecasts (Sample data shown - replace with actuals)

A. Forecast Levels and Growth Rates AIRPORT NAME: KLS Specify base year: 2017 Average Annual Compound Growth Rates Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1yr. Base Yr. + 5yrs. Base Yr. + 10yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs. Base yr. to +1 Base yr. to +5 Base yr. to +10 Base yr. to +15 Passenger Enplanements Air Carrier 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commuter 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Operations Itinerant Air carrier 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commuter/air taxi 900 915 980 1,022 1,064 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total Commercial Operations 900 915 980 1,022 1,064 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% General aviation 10,748 10,750 10,760 12,264 12,768 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1.2% Military 100 100 100 100 100 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local General aviation 10,752 10,950 11,760 12,264 12,768 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% Military 500 500 500 500 500 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TOTAL OPERATIONS 23,000 23,215 24,100 26,150 27,200 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.1%

Instrument Operations 690 690 720 780 810 0.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% Peak Hour Operations 11 11 12 13 13 0.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% Cargo/mail (enplaned+deplaned tons) 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Based Aircraft Single Engine (Nonjet) 54 56 60 61 62 3.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% Multi Engine (Nonjet) 7 7 7 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1.7% Jet Engine 2 2 2 2 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% Helicopter 1 1 1 1 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% Other 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TOTAL 64 66 70 73 76 3.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2%

B. Operational Factors Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1yr. Base Yr. + 5yrs. Base Yr. + 10yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs. Note: Show base plus one year if forecast was done. Average aircraft size (seats) If planning effort did not include all forecast years shown Air carrier 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 interpolate years as needed, using average annual Commuter 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 compound growth rates. Average enplaning load factor Air carrier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commuter 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GA operations per based aircraft 336 329 322 336 336

NOTE: Right hand side of worksheet has embedded formulas for average annual compound growth rate calculations.

Fifty-Year Forecast

Per the airport master plan project scope of work, fifty-year demand forecasts were prepared by extrapolating the average annual growth rates (AAR) for the recommended 20-year based aircraft and aircraft operations forecasts. The purpose of the 50-year projection is to provide an estimate of demand that can be used to approximate long-term aviation use land requirements for the Airport and to identify potential long term capacity constraints. Table 3-22 summarizes the 50-year forecast, including the intermediate 30- and 40-year based aircraft and aircraft operations projections.

TABLE 3-23: 50-YEAR FORECAST (KLS) ACTIVITY 2017 2037 2047 2057 2067

Annual Operations (1.12% AAR) 23,000 28,600 32,125 35,910 40,140

Based Aircraft (1.16% AAR) 64 80 89 100 114

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