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Ethiopia–Kenya Borderlands Public Disclosure Authorized From Isolation to Integration The Borderlands of the Horn of Africa Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized From Isolation to Integration The Borderlands of the Horn of Africa © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 202-473-1000 | www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denomina- tions, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, World Bank Group, 1818 H Street, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax 202-522-2625; email: [email protected]. Cover photo: Photo: Flore de Preneuf | World Bank ii Contents Acknowledgements . vi Abbreviations and Acronyms . vii Overview . 1 Developing a Borderlands Approach ........................................................................3 Drivers of Fragility and Sources of Resilience in the Borderlands ..............................................6 Some Key Themes ........................................................................................ 13 Operational Implications ..................................................................................19 Institutional and Policy Context for Regional Action .........................................................20 Recommendations for Action .............................................................................. 21 References ...............................................................................................24 BACKGROUND PAPERS 1 Livelihoods and Mobility in the Border Regions of the Horn of Africa . .27 . 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................28 1.2 Regional Context . 30 1.3 Borderlands in the Horn ............................................................................36 1.4 Trade ..............................................................................................37 1.5 Mobility in Border Regions ..........................................................................41 1.6 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework .............................................................47 1.7 Drivers of Migration Framework .....................................................................50 1.8 Applying the Household Economy Approach in the Borderland Context ............................... 51 1.9 Case Study: Ethiopia–Kenya Borderlands .............................................................55 1.10 Stakeholder Analysis—The Institutional Context . 58 1.11 The Way Forward: Coordination, Policy, and Cooperation .............................................62 Annex. Availability of Data .................................................................................63 References ...............................................................................................64 iii 2 Resilience and Development Assistance in the Horn of Africa’s Borderlands and Lagging Regions . 69 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................70 2.2 A Brief Introduction to the Horn of Africa and the Peoples of the Borderlands ......................... 71 2.3 The Economies of the Borderlands ..................................................................84 2.4 Regional, National, and International Policy and Development Initiatives ..............................88 2.5 National Policy Frameworks and Processes ..........................................................95 2.6 Synthesis .........................................................................................104 References ...............................................................................................111 3 Cross-Border Dynamics in the Kenya–Ethiopia Borderlands Cluster . 117 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 118 3.2 Demographic Changes ............................................................................. 119 3.3 Cluster 2’s Borderland Economy .................................................................... 121 3.4 Cross-Border Insecurity ............................................................................128 3.5 Voice and Society ..................................................................................132 3.6 Conclusions .......................................................................................133 References ..............................................................................................135 4 Cross-Border Dynamics in the Uganda–Kenya–South Sudan Borderlands Cluster . 139 4.1 Overview . 140 4.2 The Karamoja Cluster .............................................................................. 141 4.3 Regional Alliances and Conflict .....................................................................144 4.4 Migration, Mobility, and Livelihoods ................................................................145 4.5 Trade, Commercialization, and Inequality ...........................................................152 4.6 The Future of the Borderlands: Extractive Industries in the Karamoja Cluster ..........................156 4.7 Small Arms and Light Weapons ....................................................................159 4.8 Disarmament .....................................................................................162 4.9 Institutions .......................................................................................164 4.10 Regional Implications ..............................................................................166 4.11 Gaps in Research ..................................................................................167 4.12 Conclusion ........................................................................................168 References ..............................................................................................169 5 Fragility and Resilience Analysis: The Political Economy of Development in Borderlands . 175 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................176 5.2 Rethinking Policy Narratives and “Borderland Blindness” ............................................176 5.3 A Political Economy Approach to Borderlands .......................................................178 5.4 Defining Key Terms ................................................................................179 iv 5.5 Borderlands Research: The State of the Art .........................................................180 5.6 Borderlands and the State .........................................................................184 5.7 Borderlands and Development ....................................................................187 5.8 A Typology of Borderlands .........................................................................195 5.9 Incorporating a Borderlands Perspective . .198 5.10 State Building and Governance in Borderlands . 198 5.11 Development and Economic Policy .................................................................200 5.12 Conclusions .......................................................................................205 References ..............................................................................................206 Boxes O.1 Trade, Pastoralism, and Mobility in the Horn of Africa: The Karamoja Cluster .................................. 15 1.1 Capital in the Borderlands . 50 Figures 1.1 Population Growth in the Horn of Africa since 1960 (Actual and Projected).................................... 31 1.2 Population Distribution by Size of City in 2014 ..............................................................35 1.3 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework ....................................................................49 1.4 Drivers of Migration Framework ............................................................................ 51 1.5 Drivers of Migration Framework Adapted to the Borderlands Context ........................................54 5.1 Political Economy Approach to Studying Borders and Borderlands Based on Three Analytical Pillars ..........178 5.2 A Comparative Framework for Studying Conflict and Development in Borderlands ...........................197 Maps O.1 IGAD Clusters ..............................................................................................5 0.2 Food Insecurity in the Horn of Africa.........................................................................8 1.1 Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in
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