The Gulf in 2021
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By Philip Loft 9 August 2021 The Gulf in 2021 Summary 1 Human rights 2 The UK’s Gulf Strategy Fund 3 UK-Gulf relations 4 Relations with the US 5 Regional relations 6 Soft power and the World Cup commonslibrary.parliament.uk Number CBP 9284 The Gulf in 2021 Contributing Authors Louisa Brooke-Holland (Defence and security) Image Credits Dust storm in Saudi Arabia by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0)/Image cropped Disclaimer The Commons Library does not intend the information in our research publications and briefings to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual. We have published it to support the work of MPs. You should not rely upon it as legal or professional advice, or as a substitute for it. We do not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein. You should consult a suitably qualified professional if you require specific advice or information. 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If you have general questions about the work of the House of Commons email [email protected]. 2 Commons Library Research Briefing, 9 August 2021 The Gulf in 2021 Contents 1 Human rights 7 1.1 Regional overview 7 1.2 Country overview 8 2 The UK’s Gulf Strategy Fund 12 2.1 Programme objectives and funding 12 2.2 Calls to suspend the fund 14 3 UK-Gulf relations 15 3.1 Trading relationship 15 3.2 Defence collaboration and arms sales 16 3.3 Sanctions for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi 17 3.4 COP 26 and climate change 18 4 Relations with the US 20 4.1 Change under Biden? 20 4.2 Continuing collaboration 20 5 Regional relations 22 5.1 Qatar crisis 22 5.2 Yemen 23 5.3 Israel 24 5.4 Iran 25 5.5 Oil production 27 6 Soft power and the World Cup 28 6.1 Progress since awarding Qatar the World Cup tournament 28 3 Commons Library Research Briefing, 9 August 2021 The Gulf in 2021 Summary The six Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman collectively form the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Both the UK and US have deep security and trading ties with the region and are active in patrols in the Gulf to protect shipping. UK support for the region through the Gulf Strategy Fund (GSF) has proved controversial, however. In 2021, the APPG on Democracy and Human Rights in the Gulf argued UK support lacks transparency and the GSF has compromised UK commitments to human rights—something the UK Government has denied. GCC members do not act as a monolithic bloc, having competing foreign and economic policies. Relations between Qatar and other GCC states have been strained since the crisis of 2017 that saw a blockade introduced against the country, but an agreement to normalise relations was reached in 2021. Gulf states have also taken different approaches towards recognising Israel. Collectively they seek containment of Iran. The paper also describes continuing human rights concerns in the Gulf and progress that Qatar has made in preparation for hosting the 2022 World Cup. UK relations: Trade, security, and human rights The UK has a close security and trading relationship with the GCC, and funds human rights, governance and trade programmes in the Gulf through the GSF. In 2021, the GCC and UK concluded a trade review, which said the two would seek to make a trading agreement. The region is currently the UK’s third-largest non-EU trading partner. Both the RAF and Royal Navy have bases in the region to protect shipping lanes and project power. The UK has also participated in joint exercises with Gulf states. Personnel from the GCC states have received training in the UK. The UK’s engagement with the GCC has drawn criticism because of the human rights record of Gulf countries. All six states are considered amongst the least free for press and religious freedom and retain the death penalty. All, except Bahrain, criminalise same-sex relationships, and LGBT+ people commonly face discrimination. In 2021, the APPG on Democracy and Human Rights in the Gulf argued the GSF has supported human rights violations in the region and that it lacks transparency. The APPG called for the GSF to be suspended. The UK Government has denied GSF work contributes to human rights abuses and states all programmes are subject to human rights assessments. 4 Commons Library Research Briefing, 9 August 2021 The Gulf in 2021 Changing relations with the US The Biden Administration has sought to reset relations with the region, placing US arms exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia under review, and releasing intelligence linking Saudi Arabia, including the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The US has shifted its focus to the Asia-Pacific and to threats from Russia and China. However, it maintains deep defence relationships with the Gulf states. In 2021, it participated in military exercises with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Diplomatically, the US is seeking Gulf engagement to address the economic crisis and political instability in Lebanon, the conflict in Yemen, and on the Iran nuclear deal. Resolution to the Qatar crisis, 2017-2021 Relationships between the Gulf states have recovered since the crisis in Qatar in 2017, which had left the country isolated in the region. Gulf states had introduced a blockade against Qatar, citing its support for the Muslim Brotherhood (which some Gulf states see as a threat to stability) and maintenance of some diplomatic ties with Iran. An agreement to establish trade and other relations was reached in January. Regional relations: Iran, Israel and Yemen Talks between the US and Iran on re-establishing the 2015 nuclear deal have currently stalled, following the inauguration of the new Iranian President. The GCC continues to oppose any nuclear deal with Iran that does not also put limits on wider Iranian activity in region, such as its support for proxy groups (like Hezbollah in Lebanon). Iran opposes any widening of the deal. In the last year both the UAE and Bahrain have also recognised Israel, being the third and fourth Arab states, respectively, to do so. Saudi Arabia has also called for a ceasefire in Yemen, where it backs the Hadi Government against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia has also drawn criticism for potential human rights abuses in the conflict. Attacks on merchant vessels Iran and Iranian-backed groups have long been suspected of carrying out attacks on tankers and merchant vessels in the Gulf. In 2021, the UK, US and others accused Iran of attacking a vessel in July, leading to two deaths. An attempted hijacking of another ship occurred in August, though no party has been blamed or claimed responsibility. The attacks are likely to increase pressure for any deal with Iran to include limits on its wider regional activity, such as backing for militia groups. 5 Commons Library Research Briefing, 9 August 2021 The Gulf in 2021 The Football World Cup in Qatar, 2022 Qatar is due to host the World Cup in November-December 2022. Significant concerns have been raised for the treatment of migrant workers in the country, and discrimination against LGBT+ people. In 2020, an estimated 95 percent of the Qatari workforce were migrant workers, numbering around 2 million. In 2020, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights welcomed the steps by Qatar to improve migrants’ rights, which include allowing migrants to change jobs without their employer’s permission. Amnesty International has continued to urge Fifa, the world governing body for association football, to use its leverage to end the abuse of migrant workers. In 2020, the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association reported LGBT+ persons in Qatar continue to “face an extremely hostile context.” Although some footballers and national clubs have called for a boycott of the 2022 competition, no country federation has formally decided to do so. 6 Commons Library Research Briefing, 9 August 2021 The Gulf in 2021 1 Human rights 1.1 Regional overview The six Gulf states are considered amongst the least free countries in the world. The Cato Institute’s Human Freedom Index rates all below the average country rating of 6.93, while Reporters Without Borders places all in the bottom half of the least free countries for press freedom. Pew Research rank all as having “high” or “very high” government restrictions on religion, putting all Gulf states amongst the most restrictive fifth of countries in the world.1 Human rights in the Gulf: Global rankings and scores Bahrain Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE Global Freedom Score 12 37 23 7 25 17 2020 (out of 100) Human Freedom Index 6.18 6.39 6.03 5.29 6.07 6.17 2020 (out of 10) World Press Freedom 168th 105th 133th 170th 128th 131th Index 2020 (out of 180) Pew's Government Restrictions Index 2018 6.3 5.6 5.4 7.5 5.5 5.8 (out of 10) Note: Ratings and scores may be impacted by both state and non-state actors.