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Crisis. What Crisis? INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the hook. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI University Microfilms International A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 Nortfi Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Order Number 9207146 Crisis! W hat crisis? The origins and evolution of foreign policy crisis Mihalkanin, Edward Styles, Ph.D. The American University, 1991 Copyright ©1991 by Mihalkanin, Edward Styles. All rights reserved. UMI 300 N. Zeeb Rd. Ann Aibor, MI 48106 CRISIS! WHAT CRISIS?: THE ORIGINS AND EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN POLICY CRISIS by Edward S. Mihalkanin submitted to the Faculty of the School of International Service of The American University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations Signatures of the Committee: Chair: A/ J l viio L O (3^hr\JihAj Decean of the School Date 1991 The American University Washington, D.C. 20016 7^3^ t o AliERICM UKIVE3SITY LIBEAEY COPYRIGHT BY EDWARD S. MIHALKANIN 1991 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CRISIS! WHAT CRISIS? THE ORIGINS AND EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN POLICY CRISIS by Edward S. Mihalkanin ABSTRACT I propose that foreign policy crisis, as a type of event in international relations, arose much later than did the modern state system. Crisis originated at a specific time in response to changes which occurred in the modern state system. I critique the foreign policy crisis literature which tended to obscure both the origins and evolution of crisis because of the static conceptual­ izations writers had of the modern state system, their positivist methodology, and their ahistorical reasoning. I derived a definition of crisis from the most important writings within the crisis subfield. In order to use the insights of the crisis writers without being limited by their limitations mentioned above, I turned to the critical theory of Robert Cox and the configurative method of Harold Lasswell. Their emphases on origins, recursion, and replication provided a base from which I could inquire after the origins and evolution of crises. Developments in weaponry and the organization of the armed forces, new transportation and communication technologies, the rise of the nation-state, and innovations in conference diplomacy explain both the origins and evolution of crisis. Crisis arose when the decisionmakers of the Great Powers, fearing that Great Power war would lead to revolution after the end of Napoleonic wars, tried to find a way to settle their competing interests short of war. Crises that existed before 1871 were different from those that occurred after that date due to the uneven incorporation of the innovations mentioned above in the workings of the modern state system. Crises before 1871 shared the characteristics of longer duration, weak perception of crisis, and weak nationalism. To illustrate the similarities and differences which I believed existed among crises, I chose those representative of important conflicts among the Great Powers over long-standing diplomatic issues. They are the Anglo-French Near East Crisis of 1840, the Olmütz Crisis of 1850, the Seven Weeks War Crisis of 1866, the Fashoda Crisis of 1898, the Munich Crisis of 1938, and the US-USSR Nuclear Alert Crisis of 1973. I believe that I have demonstrated that these crises were in fact crises but that they also showed differences among themselves depending on what side of the 1871 divide they fell. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................. i ü Chapter: Page: 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................. 1 Summary of Studies ................................. 2 Project Outline ..................................... 11 Justification of the Case Studies .............. 14 2. THE ORIGINS AND EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN POLICY CRISES ..................................................... 16 Introduction ........................................ 16 Review of Literature .............................. 17 The Critical Theory of Robert Cox .............. 27 Lasswell ............................................. 31 Historical Interpretation ........................ 36 Crises Differences ................................. 44 Summary ............................................... 46 3. THE ANGLO-FRENCH NEAR EAST CRISIS OF 1840 ......... 47 Introduction ........................................ 47 The Setting .......................................... 48 The Crisis ........................................... 53 Threat of War ................................. 53 Threat to High Priority Goals ............. 58 Threat to French Goals ............... 58 Threat to British Goals .............. 60 Time Constraints ............................. 64 Pre-1871 Crisis Characteristics ................ 65 Longer Duration .............................. 66 Weak Perception ofCrisis ................... 67 Weak Nationalism ............................. 70 Conclusion ........................................... 71 4. THE OLMÜTZ CRISIS OF 1850 .............................. 73 Introduction ........................................ 73 The Setting ......................................... 74 The Crisis .......................................... 78 Threat of War ................................. 78 Threat to High Priority Goals .............. 90 Time Constraints ............................. 96 Pre-1871 Crisis Characteristics ................ 97 Longer Duration .............................. 98 Weak Perception ofCrisis ................... 101 Weak Nationalism ............................. 105 Conclusion ........................................... 109 5. THE SEVEN WEEKS WAR CRISIS OF 1866 ................... Ill Introduction ........................................ Ill The Setting ......................................... 113 The Crisis .......................................... 117 Threat of War .................................. 118 Threat to High Priority Goals ............... 126 Time Constraints .............................. 130 Crisis Comparisons ................................. 132 Duration of Crises ......................... 132 Intermediate Nationalism ................... 135 Perception of Crisis ........................ 139 Conclusion ........................................... 141 6. THE FASHODA CRISIS OF 1898 ........................... 143 Introduction ........................................ 143 The Setting ......................................... 147 The Crisis .......................................... 152 Threat of War ........................... 152 Threat to High Priority Goals .............. 166 Threat to British Goals .............. 166 Threat to French Goals ............... 172 Time Constraints ............................. 178 Crisis Comparisons ................................. 179 Mass Nationalism ............................. 180 Duration of Crises .......................... 182 Perception of Crisis ........................ 183 Conclusion ........................................... 186 7. THE MUNICH CRISIS ...................................... 188 Introduction ........................................ 188 The Setting ......................................... 190 The Crisis .......................................... 198 Threat of War ................................. 199 Threat to High Priority Goals .............. 212 Czech Goals ............................. 212 French Goals ............................ 214 British Goals ........................... 217 German Goals ............................ 220 Time Constraints ............................. 224 Comparison of Crisis .............................. 227 Crisis Duration .............................. 227 Nationalism ................................... 230 Perception of Crisis ........................ 232 8. THE US-USSR NUCLEAR ALERT CRISIS OF 1973 ......... 236 Introduction ........................................ 236 The Setting ......................................... 238 The Crisis ........................................... 246 Threat to High Priority Goals ............. 247 Threat to Soviet Goals ............... 247 Threat to United States Goals ...... 253 Threat of War ................................. 256 Time Constraints ............................
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