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Population, Economic Growth and Agriculture in Less Developed Countries/Nadia Cuffaro

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Population, Economic Growth and Agriculture in Less Developed Countries/Nadia Cuffaro 1111 2 Population, Economic Growth 3 4 and Agriculture in Less 5 Developed Countries 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 In 1950 the world population was 2.5 billion; fifty years later there 4 are over 6 billion people. This demographic explosion has essentially 5 occurred in the developing areas of the world. The key to under- 6 standing many contemporary development problems that have arisen 7 from this rapid growth is in understanding the relationships between 8 population and the economy. 9 This book offers an analysis of such relationships, encompassing a 20111 review of the major positions in the academic debate. Nadia Cuffaro 1 begins with Malthus and the population implications of the Solow 2 model and then discusses the theoretical background of the less 3 pessimistic (‘revisionist’) positions in the population debate. Part Two 4 considers population growth in relation to agriculture and focuses on 5 technical progress and institutional adjustments. It is argued that 6 simple functionalism leads to a misrepresentation of the problems and 7 that there are many possible adjustment failures linked to the research 8 system, property rights on land and poverty that greatly affect the 9 environmental resource base. Finally the author looks to the future to 30111 consider biotechnology and the challenges for world agriculture. 1 Population, Economic Growth and Agriculture in Less Developed 2 Countries will serve as a useful introduction and reference tool for 3 students, academics and all with an interest in the population debate 4 and development economics. 5 6 Nadia Cuffaro is a Researcher at the University of Cassino, Italy. 7 She has also worked as Economist at the United Nations Secretariat, 8 New York and as a Consultant for the Food and Agricultural Organi- 9 zation of the United Nations, Rome. 40111 1 21111 Routledge Studies in Development Economics 1 Economic Development in the Middle 12 Regionalization and Globalization in East the Modern World Economy Rodney Wilson Perspectives on the Third World and 2 Monetary and Financial Policies in transitional economies Developing Countries Edited by Alex E. Fernández Jilberto and Growth and stabilization André Mommen Akhtar Hossain and Anis Chowdhury 13 The African Economy 3 New Directions in Development Policy, Institutions and the Future Economics Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa Growth, environmental concerns and 14 Recovery from Armed Conflict in government in the 1990s Developing Countries Edited by Mats Lundahl and Benno J. Edited by Geoff Harris Ndulu 15 Small Enterprises and Economic 4 Financial Liberalization and Development Investment The Dynamics of Micro and Small Kanhaya L. Gupta and Robert Lensink Enterprises 5 Liberalization in the Developing Carl Liedholm and Donald C. Mead World 16 The World Bank Institutional and Economic Changes in New Agendas in a Changing World Latin America, Africa and Asia Michelle Miller-Adams Edited by Alex E. Fernández Jilberto and 17 Development Policy in the Twenty- André Mommen First Century 6 Financial Development and Economic Beyond the Post-Washington Consensus Growth Ben Fine, Costas Lapavitsas and Jonathan Theory and experiences from developing Pincus countries 18 State-Owned Enterprises in the Edited by Niels Hermes and Robert Middle East and North Africa Lensink Privatization, Performance and Reform 7 The South African Economy Edited by Merih Celasun Macroeconomic Prospects for the Medium 19 Finance and Trade in Developing Term Countries Finn Tarp and Peter Brixen Edited by Rohinton Medhora 8 Public Sector Pay and Adjustment 20 Contemporary Issues in Lessons from five countries Development Economics Edited by Christopher Colclough Edited by B.N. Ghosh 9 Europe and Economic Reform in 21 Mexico Beyond NAFTA Africa Edited by Martín Puchet Anyul and Structural adjustment and economic Lionello F. Punzo diplomacy 22 Economies in Transition Obed O. Mailafia A guide to China, Cuba, Mongolia, North 10 Post-apartheid Southern Africa Korea and Vietnam at the turn of the Economic challenges and policies for the twenty-first century future Ian Jeffries Edited by Lennart Petersson 23 Population, Economic Growth and 11 Financial Integration and Agriculture in Less Developed Development Countries Liberalization and reform in sub-Saharan Nadia Cuffaro Africa 24 From Crisis to Growth in Africa? Ernest Aryeetey and Machiko Nissanke Edited by Mats Lundahl 1111 2 Population, Economic 3 4 5111 Growth and Agriculture in 6 7 Less Developed Countries 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 Nadia Cuffaro 4 5 6 7 8 9 20111 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 30111 1 2 3 4 5 6 TL E D U G 7 O E R 8 • • T 9 a p y u lo ro 40111 r G & F cis 1 ran 21111 London and New York First published 2001 by Routledge 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2003. © 2001 Nadia Cuffaro All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Cuffaro, N. (Nadia) Population, economic growth and agriculture in less developed countries/Nadia Cuffaro. p. cm. – (Routledge studies in development economics; 23) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Developing countries—Population. 2. Developing countries —Economic conditions. 3. Agriculture—Developing countries. 4. Economic development. 5. Neo-Malthusianism. I. Series. HB884.C84 2001 304.6′09172′4—dc21 2001019968 ISBN 0-203-10310-6 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 0-203-16304-4 (Adobe eReader Format) ISBN 0–415–20290–6 (Print Edition) 1111 2 Contents 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 List of figures vii 4 List of tables ix 5 Acknowledgements xi 6 7 1 Introduction 1 8 9 PART I 20111 Population growth and economic development 7 1 2 2Population pessimism 9 3 4 Malthus’s theory of population 9 5 ‘Malthusian’ years: the 1960s and 1970s 16 6 The population implications of the neoclassical growth 7 model 19 8 9 3 ‘Revisionism’: theoretical background 27 30111 ‘Revisionism’ 27 1 New institutional economics 30 2 Population and the environment: local commons 46 3 Population and savings 50 4 Population in recent neoclassical growth theory 52 5 6 PART II 7 Population growth and agriculture in less 8 9 developed countries 63 40111 4 Endogenous technical progress in agriculture 65 1 21111 Trends 65 vi Contents The Boserup model 67 The induced innovation model 76 Food entitlements and the green revolution 84 5 The response of institutions 87 Institutional responses and the success of the green revolution 87 Property rights on land 93 6 Adjustment failures 110 Cases of failure 110 Research 113 Property rights 117 Poverty 119 7 Environmental implications 123 Land degradation and the Boserup model 123 Toposequences of land use and land degradation 127 World-wide evidence from the Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) project 128 Appendix 131 8 Future challenges for world agriculture 133 The new research challenges 133 Biotechnology 136 Conclusions 145 Notes 148 Bibliography 156 Index 169 1111 2 Figures 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 1.1 Population of the world and its major areas 4 1750–2050 5 5 2.1 The Malthus model 11 6 2.2 Population and real wages in Europe, 1200–1830 14 7 2.3 The demographic transition model 17 8 2.4 Population growth rates 18 9 2.5 The dynamics of the Solow model 22 20111 2.6 Dynamics of the Solow model: the growth rate of k 23 1 2.7 Effects from an increase in the saving rate or an 2 improvement in technology 24 3 2.8 Effects from a decrease in the saving rate 24 4 2.9 Effects from an increase in the population growth rate 25 5 3.1 Population and growth in The Rise of the Western 6 World 39 7 3.2 A common property resources game 48 8 3.3 The AK model 53 9 3.4 Human capital and growth 61 30111 4.1 The Boserup model 70 1 4.2 Population pressure and land productivity 73 2 4.3 Population pressure and labour productivity 74 3 4.4 Classification of technical progress: neutral, capital 4 saving, labour saving 78 5 4.5 Technical progress and the innovation possibility 6 curve 80 7 4.6 The Hayami and Ruttan induced innovations model 81 8 5.1 Fertiliser response curves 89 9 5.2 Diffusion of modern varieties 90 40111 5.3 Communal property 97 1 5.4 The evolution of property rights on land 103 21111 5.5 Land distribution and unemployment 108 viii Figures 7.1 Soil fertility stock and agricultural intensification 124 7.2 Private and open access equilibrium with different cost functions 126 7.3 Revenue maximisation with given L 127 7.4 Population density and severity of soil degradation 129 8.1 Bt varieties 137 8.2 RR varieties 138 1111 2 Tables 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 1.1 World population growth 4 4 4.1 Growth rates of population, aggregate demand and 5 production (per cent p.a.) 66 6 4.2 Food supply systems 69 7 6.1 Africa: growth rates of real agricultural research 8 expenditure by country (per cent p.a.) 115 9 8.1 Projected growth rates of population, aggregate 20111 demand and production (per cent p.a.) 135 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 30111 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 40111 1 21111 1111 2 Acknowledgements 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 This book was written on the basis of ideas and materials developed 4 for a series of lectures I gave at Cambridge University between 1993 5 and 1996.
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