Spring 2012 Journal on Terrorism &
Security Analysis SATSA STUDENT ASSOCIATION ON TERRORISM & SECURITY ANALYSIS
North Waziristan
The Ground Realities —By Sabina Khan
Siloviki Syndicalists —By Frederick S. Schultz
The Evolving Terrorist Threat
Adapting United States’ Counter-Terrorism Strategy
—By Avi Panth & Chris Edelman
Understanding Suicide Terrorism A Case Study of Pakistan
—By Khuram Iqbal
Understanding Al-Qaeda Changing War and Global Politics
—A review by Tom Smith
7th Volume 1 Editorial Board Student Association on Terrorism & Security Analysis oard B ditorial Jeff Keesom Jeff Design & Layout: Dowley H. Alex Senior Associate Editor: Daniel DePetris Associate Editors: Bentley Erik D. Chironna Andrew McInerney Mitchell Miller Christopher J. O’Neill J. Vincent Jill Wojdyla M. Publisher: Journal on Terrorism & Terrorism on Journal Analysis Security E 2011—2012 Editor-in-Chief: Schafbuch Tom [email protected] Assistant Editors: Donnarumma Egon F. Dowley H. Alex NALYSIS A ON
ECURITY Editorial Board Editorial & S SSOCIATION A
TUDENT ERRORISM T S SATSA Published by: Published Student Association on Terrorism & Security Analysis & Security Terrorism Association on Student 402 MacNaughton Hall Syracuse University NY 13244 Syracuse, [email protected] Email: http://satsa.us Web: 2 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis
34 The Evolving
Contents Terrorist Threat Adapting United States’ Counter-Terrorism Strategy By Avi Panth & Chris Edelman
52 Understanding Suicide Terrorism A case study of Pakistan By Khuram Iqbal
65 Understanding Al Qaeda Changing War and Global Politics By Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedouy North Waziristan illustration by Morgan Spicer A review by Tom Smith
3 Contributors
5 North Waziristan The Ground Realities By Sabina Khan
14 Siloviki Syndicalists By Frederick S. Schultz 3 Table of Contents / Contributors Student Association on Terrorism & Security Analysis -
is a geopolitics fellow at is a geopolitics fellow He was recently on a Visiting Fellowship at Fellowship Visiting recently on a He was - an award-win Banaa.org, He co-founded has been published in the Journal His work - As a train Singapore. (ICPVTR), rorism Research initiatives engaged in various Iqbal has been Mr. er, research of PIPS the capacity building aimed at short-training courses He has also conducted staff. Ban- in Pakistan, agencies enforcement the law for Australia. and Turkey Singapore, gladesh, International Center for Political Violence and Ter and Violence Political for Center International Neil Padukone the Takshashila Institute, and is currently writing a and is currently writing Institute, Takshashila the Asia. South book on the future of conflict in Delhi, in New Foundation Research the Observer where he published Security in a Complex India, a monograph 2010), Press, World Era (Knowledge and led an interdis- on trends in conflict in India, project on ciplinary group in a scenario-building of the Indian Ministry nontraditional security for Defense. at the George ning non-profit organization based Sudanese that matches University Washington opportunities in the refugees with scholarship with the Project He has worked United States. the Project on National Engagement, on Forward and the LSE Com- Demos UK, Security Reform, a US In 2007 he received Group. Research plexity Arabic in to study State Department scholarship to as an adviser and has served Jordan, Amman, the UK House of Lords. Affairs Journal, World the Affairs, of International Christian Science Weekly, Economic and Political - “Paki The Co-author of - Wa of South is a native Table of Contents / Contributors / Contents of Table
Singapore, he was working as senior analyst at working he was Singapore, jaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), of International Studies (RSIS), jaratnam School A graduate in Strategic Studies from the S. Ra- A graduate in Strategic Studies from the S. projects on Conflict and Terrorism in Pakistan. Pakistan. Terrorism in projects on Conflict and he executed and coordinated various research research and coordinated various he executed Pak Institute for Peace Studies, Islamabad, where Islamabad, Studies, Peace Institute for Pak ing CTCP, he served as Research Coordinator at Coordinator Research as he served ing CTCP, University of Wollongong, Australia. Prior to join- Australia. Wollongong, of University Transnational Crimes Prevention (CTCP) at the Crimes Prevention Transnational PhD candidate and researcher at the Centre for at the Centre for PhD candidate and researcher stan: Terrorism Ground Zero” Khuram Iqbal is a Ground Zero” Terrorism stan: Khuram Iqbal: Khuram Iqbal:
Sabina Khan Sabina Contributors Contributors com/ blogs at: http://coffeeshopdiplomat.wordpress. blogs at: freelance work this summer in Pakistan and she this summer in Pakistan freelance work ate School in Monterey. Sabina will continue her in Monterey. ate School - Postgradu journal of the Naval a research Insights, Results of her study were published in Strategic were Results of her study of Pakistan as part of her final project at MIIS. of her final project at MIIS. as part of Pakistan on the governance challenge in the tribal areas challenge on the governance the summer of 2010 conducting firsthand research firsthand research the summer of 2010 conducting of The International Herald Tribune. She spent Tribune. The International Herald of Express Tribune newspaper in Pakistan, an affiliate in Pakistan, newspaper Tribune Express stan. Sabina is a regular Op-Ed contributor to the Sabina is a regular Op-Ed contributor stan. - in Paki Quaid-i-Azam University gic Studies from - degree in Defense and Strate also holds a Masters of International Studies (MIIS) in California. She Studies (MIIS) in California. of International Conflict Resolution from the Monterey Institute from the Monterey Conflict Resolution ziristan, Pakistan. She graduated with a Masters in She graduated with a Masters Pakistan. ziristan, Monitor, the World Politics Review, The Pioneer, Cambridge, Chris will complete the second part and Open Democracy, and by the UK’s Economic of his joint-degree program as a J.D. Candidate and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the As- at Stanford Law School. His interests focus on sociated Press, among others. counterterrorism, rule of law in Latin America, Neil received his degree from the George and regional international organizations. Washington University’s Elliott School of Inter- national Affairs, and studied management at the Avi Panth graduated with honors from Duke London School of Economics. He speaks Spanish, University with majors in Public Policy Studies standard and Levantine Arabic, Hindi, Urdu, and and Electrical and Computer Engineering. While introductory Hungarian. at Duke, Avi conducted research to develop novel algorithms for underwater explosive ordnance Frederick S. Schultz, a white collar detection. Upon commissioning in the Navy, Avi crime investigator of corruption and organized worked as a design engineer to develop nuclear crime in the former Soviet Union, is presently a propulsion plants on fast attack submarines, bal- graduate student in Missouri State University’s listic missile submarines, and aircraft carriers. Avi Defense and Strategic Studies program. Mr. has previously interned with the National Nuclear Schultz recently published a monograph titled Andropov in the U.S. Media (Lambert Press, 2011) Security Administration on policy and technical and “Target Ukraine: How the issues of Fuel, issues related to strategic nuclear deterrence and Fraud, and the Fleet threaten the Independence of has served as a Nuclear Policy Intern for the Sen- Russia’s neighbor,” The Officer, October-Novem- ate Foreign Relations Committee. Avi is particular- ber, 2010. ly interested in issues related to national defense, counterterrorism, and non-proliferation. Avi is a J.D. Candidate at Georgetown University Law Cen- Chris Edelman graduated Summa Cum ter. Laude from Duke University where he was a Robertson Scholar. At Duke, he majored in De- is a PhD candidate at the Uni- cision Science and spent his summers traveling Tom Smith versity of Hull where he is completing a thesis in throughout South America researching the FARC and Shining Path terrorist organizations and earn- the conceptualization of the jihad with reference ing a certificate in Latin American Studies. He is to the UK, Thailand and the Philippines where he now completing a Master of Philosophy in Inter- holds the post of Visiting Lecturer at De La Salle national Relations at the University of Cambridge, University in Manila. He is the Editor-in-Chief of where his research focuses on government and The Journal of International Relations Research. terrorist group interaction. Following his time at 5 North Waziristan Sabina Khan -
4 - 5 This paper examines the possibility of This paper examines Areas Tribal Administered The Federally “Pakistan buries 24 troops killed in NATO airstrike,” BBC, No BBC, airstrike,” 24 troops killed in NATO buries “Pakistan ‘proxy using Haqqani network to wage “Pakistan Crilly, Rob der also known as the Durand Line. Nearly 1,500 as the Durand Line. der also known harsh mountainous terrain miles of unforgiving, 4 27, 2011,
3 Extended con- 2 With the NATO/Inter With 1 North Waziristan North After the US invasion of Afghanistan, Afghanistan, of After the US invasion John Bingham, “Bin Laden: 3,519 days, 2 wars, $1.283 trillion, 2 wars, Bingham, “Bin Laden: 3,519 days, John The successful May 1, 2011 raid on Osama 2011 1, The successful May Barbara Starr, “US targeting Haqqani network in Pakistan,” “US targeting Haqqani network in Pakistan,” Barbara Starr, Country Operations High Commissioner on Refugees 2012 U.N.
1. September 21, 2011,
Introduction By Sabina Khan The Ground Realities Realities The Ground North Waziristan Waziristan North terrorist violence in the country. personnel have perished thus far as a result of personnel have Pakistan. Over 30,000 civilians and 3,500 military Over Pakistan. the war on terror surged into the urban areas of on terror surged into the urban areas of the war
continued resistance in Afghanistan. continued resistance in North Waziristan is being framed as the source of Waziristan North drawal deadline approaching, lack of operations in lack deadline approaching, drawal national Security Assistance Force (ISAF) with- Assistance Force national Security highest internal refugee population in the world. flict and massive natural disasters have yielded the natural disasters have flict and massive strikes within Pakistan’s borders further amplify within Pakistan’s strikes Year-round rolling blackouts and incessant drone rolling blackouts Year-round 6 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis
serves as the border between the two countries. In response, the Pakistan government The tribal areas of Pakistan are mostly populated stated that the peace accord was signed with by Pashtuns and consist of seven agencies, Bajaur, tribal elders and not with the Taliban.10 In 2008, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, North Wa- the peace agreement was revived and the tribes of ziristan and South Waziristan. North Waziristan agreed to jointly struggle against North Waziristan is characterized by rugged terrorism and extremism in the agency. However, hills with deep gorges and it is mostly impassable. the use of drone strikes by the United States and Approximately 350,000 people reside there and recent attack on Pakistani checkpoints by militants is home to some of the most dangerous militants, in North Waziristan threaten the peace deal.11
mainly the Haqqani network.6 In 2002, the Pakistani military began com- Militant Groups in bat operations in North Waziristan. However, in North Waziristan 2006, a peace agreement known as the Waziristan
Accord was signed to end conflict in the agency.7 North Waziristan hosts a web of militant Under the agreement tribal elders pledged not to groups and tribes including the Afghan Taliban attack state property or security personnel in Paki- and Al-Qaeda. Their hideouts are located in the mountains between Miramshah, North Waziristan’s stan. In return, the government of Pakistan prom- capital, and the Afghan border. Media sources esti- ised not to undertake any ground or air opera- mate that several hundred foreign al-Qaeda fight- tions in North Waziristan and to resolve disputes ers reside in the North Waziristan, mostly from through local tribal customs and traditions.8 The Arab countries and Uzbekistan, as well as a few short lived deal broke down in 2007 after militants Africans, Chechens and Westerners.12 The Islamic from Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) burnt down the Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Islamic Jihad Ministry of Environment and attacked the Army Union (IJU) are two particular Uzbek factions Rangers guarding it. This led to a siege of the Lal residing in North Waziristan. Both organizations Masjid by the security forces and resulted in the are beginning to extend deeper into the country deaths of 154 militants. Taliban members subse- and have ties to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), quently retaliated by carrying out violent attacks al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network.13 against the Pakistan military.9
10 “Convoy ambush toll rises to 27: Taliban scraps North Wa- 6 Kathy Gannon, “North Waziristan: new epicenter of terror ziristan peace deal”, Dawn News, June 30, 2009, < http://archives.dawn. fight,” Associated Press, October 25, 2007,
The Haqqani network The Haqqani Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Logar, and Ghazni Province. and Ghazni Province. Logar, Khost, Paktika, Paktia, is active in Afghanistan’s southeastern areas of Afghanistan’s in is active government forces from Afghanistan. The network The network Afghanistan. from forces government and is focusing on driving out US and Afghan on driving out US and and is focusing Sirajuddin has taken over operational command over Sirajuddin has taken during Afghanistan’s civil wars. Haqqani’s son, son, Haqqani’s civil wars. Afghanistan’s during Soviet troops left, Haqqani allied with the Taliban Taliban Haqqani allied with the troops left, Soviet Arabia to support resistance to the Soviets. After the Soviets. Arabia to support resistance to stan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and Saudi Intelligence (ISI), Inter-Services stan’s - Paki Agency (CIA), the US Central Intelligence tribal areas in the 1970s. He received funding from He received tribal areas in the 1970s. Province. Haqqani established a base in Pakistan’s Haqqani established a base in Pakistan’s Province. resistance commander from Afghanistan’s Khost Afghanistan’s resistance commander from group, Jalaluddin Haqqani, is a former anti-Soviet anti-Soviet is a former Haqqani, Jalaluddin group, to have Haqqani origins. The aging leader of the Haqqani origins. to have led coalition forces in Afghanistan are suspected in led coalition forces North Waziristan. is believed that they still maintain a presence in still maintain a presence they that is believed in Pakistan and have shifted to Afghanistan, it Afghanistan, shifted to and have in Pakistan Haqqanis claim they no longer need safe havens havens no longer need safe they Haqqanis claim 8 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis
groups operating in Kurram, Orakzai, Khyber, the “epicenter of terrorism.”23 President Obama Mohmand, Bajaur, Swat and Dir regions.19 After publicly claims North Waziristan is key to winning
the Pakistani army conducted operations in South the Afghan war.24 Although they maintain a work- Waziristan targeting TTP’s headquarters in Octo- ing relationship, the US and Pakistan have dif- ber 2009, the TTP leadership relocated to North ferent strategic interests in North Waziristan. The
20 Waziristan. It maintains close ties with various Pakistan military is concerned, first and foremost, other groups including the Haqqani network, al with the militant hubs that are used to launch Qaeda, and the Punjab based Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. attacks within Pakistan. The US, on the other An assortment of other jihadi groups also hand, is concerned about militants that cross into exist in North Waziristan and the situation is Afghanistan and target coalition forces. The US clearly troublesome as the unity among the mili- criticizes Pakistan’s inaction in North Waziristan. tants is crumbling.21 Those allied with the Haqqani Pakistan retorts that it does not have the resources network want to concentrate all of their efforts to open another front. on Afghanistan, hence the peace accord with the Condemning Pakistan’s failure to act in Pakistan army. Meanwhile the Al-Qaeda-linked North Waziristan, the US is pursuing an intense militants, including Punjabis, see the Pakistani state as well as the coalition forces across the bor- drone strike campaign in North Waziristan to kill
der in Afghanistan as enemies.22 and disrupt Al Qaeda, Taliban and other militants operating in the area. Nearly 300 drone strikes United States have been launched since 2004. There were 118 strikes in 2010 alone.25 Leadership of Al Qaeda has The US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 been reportedly disrupted as a result. However, toppled the Taliban but inadvertently led to a these drone strikes violate Pakistan’s sovereignty surge of militants into Pakistan’s tribal areas. The and produce collateral damage which has a nega- US considers North Waziristan a base for al-Qaeda tive impact on the US image in Pakistan. Accord- headquarters and the most dangerous place in the ing to a report by the Bureau of Investigative Jour- world. Former US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of nalism, a non-profit organization based in London, Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen called North Waziristan a drone strike occurs every four days. The group estimates that the drone program has caused at 19 Chaghai Helmand, “The Afghan-Pakistan militant nexus,” BBC, October 6, 2011,
32 - 36 -
35 Thus, Pakistan had to move troops to had to move Pakistan Thus, 33 Following September 11, 2001, Pakistan de- Pakistan 2001, September 11, Following Failing to clear the Kunar and Nuristan to clear the Kunar Failing “Troops deployed along border in Dir, Chitral,” Dawn News, Chitral,” News, Dawn along border in Dir, “Troops deployed cross-border troops in kill 25 Pakistani “Taliban Bill Roggio, Border Fight,” Militants in Deadly “Pakistan, Inskeep, Steve C.J. Chivers, Alissa J. Rubin, Wesley Morgan, “US pulling back Morgan, Wesley Rubin, Alissa J. Chivers, C.J. FC sent to areas bordering Af Army, “Cross-border attacks: Pakistan has accused ISAF and the Afghan Afghan ISAF and the has accused Pakistan 34 National Army (ANA) for allowing these groups to allowing for (ANA) Army National thrive in Afghanistan. ghanistan,” Express Tribune, October 18, 2011,
26 The US and Pakistan shared a mutual un- shared and Pakistan The US Chris Woods, Covert Drone War, The Bureau of Drone War, Covert Investiga Chris Woods, Tim Lister, “WikiLeaks: Pakistan quietly approved drone attacks, drone attacks, approved quietly Pakistan “WikiLeaks: Tim Lister, drone used for base in Pakistan Salman Masood, CIA leaves Gura, risk in “It’s critical to understand David instability Wall talks,” Afghan led Taliban “US encourages Adam Entous, October “US meets Haqqani network: Clinton”, Express Tribune, of 2011. Pakistan reacted by shutting down the shutting down by reacted Pakistan of 2011. th to conduct drone strikes in the tribal areas. in the strikes to conduct drone Shamsi air base which was being used by the CIA being used by was which Shamsi air base political settlement.” 26 active efforts now to seek an appropriate kind of now efforts active solution” for Afghanistan and that “there are very very “there are and that Afghanistan for solution” 10, 2011, Taliban leaders to visit Kabul. Taliban the talks and have provided safe passage for senior safe passage for provided the talks and have tion forces in Afghanistan have been facilitating been Afghanistan have in tion forces gence agency, the ISI. gence agency, network, which was arranged by Pakistan’s intelli- Pakistan’s arranged by was which network, held an exploratory meeting with the Haqqani held an exploratory 26 attack on two Pakistani checkpoints on November on November checkpoints Pakistani on two attack ship came to a sudden halt following the NATO the NATO halt following ship came to a sudden 10 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis tion forces in Afghanistan made up of troops from scale operation in North Waziristan would also 48 countries.37 According to the Pakistan Economic jeopardize the military’s clean-up efforts in other Survey 2010-11, the country’s economy has suf- areas. fered direct and indirect losses of up to $67.93 If Pakistani forces do conduct operations billion since 2001 when it became a frontline state in North Waziristan then most likely the Afghan in the ‘war against terrorism.’38 Haqqani network will not be their target. Paki- There are 34,000 Pakistani troops (six stan is also looking to safeguard its interests once brigades) specific to North Waziristan and they NATO leaves Afghanistan. It believes that opera- actively carry out “surgical” raids against militants tions against the Haqqani network would open in the agency, comprising of unit level operations. another front and make enemies out of allies Pakistan has not announced a date for a large-scale which could prove useful in Afghanistan once the operation as of yet.39 To conduct such an opera- coalition forces leave. Historic ties exist between tion would require several more infantry divisions the ISI and the Haqqani network. since the terrain is quite harsh and there will be There are various strategic aspects which immense blow back in the form of political and will determine the future of Pakistan military terrorist attacks to deal with.40 operations in North Waziristan. Amongst the Pakistan has raised numerous concerns main factors preventing Pakistan from conducting about conducting operations in North Waziristan. operations in North Waziristan is its relationship A military entrance into North Waziristan could with neighboring India and Afghanistan. Conflict scatter the militants across Pakistan causing even throughout the area shared by these nations has further havoc in the country. Pakistan is also sensi- been documented for thousands of years. Bringing tive to the threat of a fierce backlash from Pash- about significant reform will be a painstaking pro- tuns in the tribal belts and accusations of fighting cess. Pakistan has cited several reasons for delay- 41 America’s war. North Waziristan’s terrain will lead ing operations in North Waziristan including the to heavy causalities of Pakistani troops and a large- withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, the US peace talks with the Taliban, plus the widening 37 “Foreign forces in Afghanistan,” BBC, July 20, 2011, 48 Pakistani officials have told the US told the officials have Pakistani 46 Since India’s Cold Start Doctrine is Cold Start Doctrine is Since India’s 47 “Afghanistan has been a prize that Pakistan has been a prize that Pakistan “Afghanistan Lydia Polgreen, “Obama Is Not Likely to Push India Hard on “Obama Is Not Likely Polgreen, Lydia to deploy Cold Start against “India unlikely US Embassy Cable, Council on Bajoria, “India-Afghanistan Relations,” Jayshree Dr Subash Kapila, “India’s new Cold Start doctrine strategically Dr Subash Kapila, Cold Start new “India’s doctrine strategically siaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers10%5Cpaper991.html>. 47 5, 2010, 43 45 44 Funds have been allocated for for been allocated Funds have 42 North Waziristan North In 2008 President Obama called for a Obama called for In 2008 President Joe Klien, “The full Obama Interview,” Time, October 23, 2008, Time, Klien, “The full Obama Interview,” Joe Holbrooke’s against “India’s stealth lobbying Laura Rozen, Af- Foreign with Pakistan,” the problem “What’s Christine Fair, - inside Paki that could strike ground forces new 42 “Indian PM Manmohan Singh pledges $500m to Afghanistan,” May BBC, 12, 2011, ing the Soviet invasion in the 1980s, India sup- In 2001, the US offensive in Afghanistan advanced ported the Soviet Union and backed the com- from the west towards the east and pushed out the munist regime of President Najibullah, while Taliban militants into Pakistan. The border is soft the United States and Pakistan supported the on accounts of the Durand Line regulated by the Mujahideen with their resistance to the intruders. “easement rights;” which entitles individuals to After the defeat of the Soviet Union the Taliban move freely across the border if their tribes have took control of Afghanistan, ending a lengthy and been divided.51 Pakistani Pashtuns welcomed the bloody civil war. When the dust settled India was Afghan Taliban with open arms because of a com- left without any real influence in the country. mon ethnicity and a history of integration since The Taliban regime called itself the Islamic Emir- the Soviet occupation. Considering their conflict ate of Afghanistan and gained diplomatic recogni- with the Northern Alliance, Pashtuns are inclined tion from only three states: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, to negotiate directly with the US and not with the and the United Arab Emirates.50 Pakistan had been Afghanistan government. The US participation in a supporter of the Taliban until President Pervez these talks actively undermines their own onetime Musharraf agreed to assist US forces in overthrow- goal to have Afghanistan lead the upcoming transi- ing the Taliban following the attacks of September tion of power. 11, 2001. Even if North Waziristan is cleared, coali- Toppling the former power in Afghanistan tion difficulties in Afghanistan will not automati- changed the dynamics of the country. Afghans cally cease to exist. The US withdrew forces from who are in power today are ideologically differ- Helmand and Kandahar and shifted its presence to ent. They include Shias who are inclined towards the eastern provinces bordering North Waziristan. Iranian influence as well as other minorities from Meanwhile the insurgent groups in Nuristan and the North such as Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks. Kunar are thriving since there is no presence of The Northern Alliance reached new heights of coalition troops in those territories.52 These groups power after the US overthrew the Pashtuns. This continue to conduct insurgency in Pakistan. resulted in a dramatic decline in the representa- tion of Pashtuns who were unable to join the Conclusion armed forces, government, and law enforcement The 8,000-feet high mountains in North ranks. The Pashtuns represent a cohesive majority Waziristan possess a myriad of escape routes into in Afghanistan and their intentional marginaliza- 51 Ahmer Bilal Soofi, “A law for crossing the Durand Line,” The tion cannot be sustained in any natural manner. News, October 8, 2011, 58 To encour To 57 Accordingly, construction of megadams construction Accordingly, Aryn Baker, “The Unwinnable War,” Time, October 24, 2011, Time, War,” “The Unwinnable Aryn Baker, Office of Afghanistan and for the Special Representative 11, 2012, 53 54 The US efforts to The US efforts 56 North Waziristan North 55 Both the US and Pakistan consider Haqqa- Both the US and Pakistan Lyse Doucet, “Nato urged ‘to do more’ on Afghan-Pakistan urged ‘to do more’ on Afghan-Pakistan Doucet, “Nato Lyse is the Final Frontier,” Sherry “North Waziristan Rehman, News, Dawn to be ‘selective’”, operation “North Waziristan American Interest, September “Ungovernable”, Shuja Nawaz, border,” BBC, August 6, 2010, and Pakistan does not believe they will be capable they does not believe and Pakistan continue to suffer from deserters and infiltrators, continue to suffer from deserters and infiltrators, not been promising thus far. The Afghan forces Afghan forces The not been promising thus far. train and empower the Afghan National Army have have Army Afghan National the train and empower provide militants strategic depth for retreat. for militants strategic depth provide impossible because Afghanistan will continue to Afghanistan will impossible because militants outside of North Waziristan is currently Waziristan of North militants outside side of the Durand Line, a permanent push of a permanent Line, side of the Durand Given the number of unequal checkpoints on each on each the number of unequal checkpoints Given kar-e-Jhangvi. of al-Qaeda, such as Tehreek-e-Taliban and Lash- Tehreek-e-Taliban as such of al-Qaeda, Waziristan to shrink the space for local facilitators to shrink the space for Waziristan selective operations will be conducted in North operations will be conducted in North selective government of Pakistan. Instead of a major assault, Instead of a major assault, of Pakistan. government Pakistani Taliban, which has declared war on the has declared war which Taliban, Pakistani Waziristan, they will prioritize addressing the will prioritize addressing they Waziristan, If military operations are conducted in North If military operations 14 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis flood control and electricity generation. Such projects will ease the suffering of the population Siloviki Syndicalists and garner long term support for the US-Pakistan partnership. By Frederick S. Schultz Since the NATO attack on Pakistani sol- diers, the relations between the two allies at their Introduction worst. Pakistan has shut down the NATO supply route to Afghanistan and the US is withhold- The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 ing aid to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan. Such created a power vacuum in the international sys- reactionary policies are dangerous and only work tem and forced a realignment of world powers in to cause tension between two countries that would which the United States assumed the role of, to benefit greatly from close partnership in the war quote strategist Colin Gray, the “sheriff of world 1 on terrorism. Pakistan is well on its way to hav- order.” Gray’s commentary is based on the U.S. ing the fifth largest population on the globe. Its monopoly over conventional military power. How- military might, nuclear arsenal, strategic partner- ever, as this paper will demonstrate, the unique ship with China, combined with the presence nexus of former members of the Soviet security of extremism ensures a high level of continued services, political and business elite, and orga- interes`t from the international community. Hence, nized crime has served as an effective tool which Pakistan’s future course will remain vital to the US post-Soviet Russia uses to implement its foreign even after its troops have withdrawn from Afghan- policy objectives in place of kinetic military force. istan The failed attempt by U.S. policymakers, in par- ticular the economist Jeffrey Sachs, to imple- ment an Anglo-American style of economy during the early years of the Russian Federation (RF), has led to the reemergence of members of the security services into government, known as the silovki or “strong men.” Vladimir Putin came forth from the shadows of the security services to lead a resurgent Russia, bolstered by high-oil prices and ever expanding commodity exports which benefits Russia’s economic and political standing. The belief that the United States could transform 1 Colin S. Gray, “Maintaining Effective Deterrence,” (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College, August, 2003). < http:// www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=211> 15 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz The Strategic and conventional Strategic and conventional 3 Kissinger’s commentary rings true. A new A new commentary rings true. Kissinger’s Daniel Goure, ‘Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces and Arms Con- Daniel Goure, ‘Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces and 3 eds. Weitz in Stephen J. Blank and Richard Again” All over trol: Déjà vu Essays in Memory of Mary Fitzgerald and Tomorrow: Russian Military Today Strategic Studies Institute, 2010), p.305. (Carlisle, PA; - policymak among hubris systematic led to decline resources The intelligence Washington. ers in - are disproportion Russian towards appropriated threats of old cold war the toward ately outlaid capabilities. and strategic military conventional funds nation-states must appropriate Of course, - and collection of data regard to the monitoring capabilities of a country like ing the strategic Russian military planners Furthermore, Russia. on their strategic and tactical must rely more declining in the face of Russia’s nuclear weapons forces. conventional issues transcend the cold war, but this paper will issues transcend the cold war, threats to U.S. demonstrate that more dangerous emerged from Russia and European security have will require different responses from the which intelligence community. U.S. in influence globally and in Russia is growing Union and particular within the former-Soviet is not wielded Russian influence today Europe. but through economic ties through military might, of former and the direct and indirect networks and or Russian or current members of the Soviet and a busi- organized crime, security apparatuses, ness class with intimate links with one or both of CIA analyst Mark Lowenthal Former these groups. accurately describes the more potent threat in the of the “One of the striking challenges present era: period is the decreased emphasis on post-cold war and the increased emphasis on eco- military power Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki 2 Gray and Kissinger were correct. The fact correct. and Kissinger were Gray Students of geopolitics and history are un- Students of geopolitics (New York; Simon and Schuster, Simon and Schuster, York; Diplomacy (New A. Kissinger, Henry its bets. time, and in that interlude America should hedge America should and in that interlude time, lated moral transformation to occur, it would take take it would to occur, lated moral transformation potent imperial traditions. Even were the postu- were Even potent imperial traditions. political heartland, and is heir to one of the most political heartland, the territory Halford Mackinder called the geo- Mackinder the territory Halford Russia, regardless of who governs it, sits astride sits it, regardless of who governs Russia, subsequent economic and political and Russia’s on global issues. They would argue, however, that however, argue, would They on global issues. supremacy military American conventional tury. 2 1994), p. 814 son favor economic aid and cooperative projects economic aid and cooperative son favor cen- in the twenty-first the Russian Federation sia’s traditional truculence and would for that rea- for traditional truculence and would sia’s intelligence community vis-à-vis facing the U.S. - support a policy designed to modify Rus would right underscores the challenges that both were neglect the usual tasks of foreign policy. They They policy. neglect the usual tasks of foreign controversies, generate a nationalist backlash, and generate a nationalist backlash, controversies, may involve itself needlessly in internal Russian itself needlessly involve may ity to shape Russia’s internal evolution, America internal evolution, ity to shape Russia’s They fear that, in overestimating America’s abil- America’s in overestimating fear that, They purely democratic and market-oriented state]. state]. and market-oriented purely democratic [an attempt to shock the Russian system into a the Russian [an attempt to shock of this approach easy about the single-mindedness Soviet collapse: Soviet policy makers would face in the aftermath of the face in the aftermath of the would policy makers Henry Kissinger explained the realities U.S foreign foreign U.S the realities explained Henry Kissinger by and large a failure. Former Secretary of State Secretary of Former and large a failure. by Wilsonian notion of American exceptionalism was was American exceptionalism of notion Wilsonian Russia’s value systems through the time-honored the time-honored through systems value Russia’s 16 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis nomic power.”4These networks or nexuses operate The U.S. intelligence community should independently or in unison to promote their own develop more robust human intelligence (HU- individual interests, and the interest of the Krem- MINT) and financial intelligence (FININT) capa- lin’s foreign policy. These nexuses have expanded bilities to deal with the threat of these nexuses. to include foreign government officials, former or Furthermore, the concept of “strategic counterin- current members of foreign intelligence services, telligence” should be developed in order to com- foreign businessmen and other professionals, and bat the threat on the soil of foreign powers before a panoply of influential private citizens stretching the threat penetrate the U.S. homeland.5 from Kyiv to London and even Washington, DC. The concept of strategic counterintelli- These links are often murky and the intentions gence can be implemented by attacking the nex- of the players involved are, at times, difficult to uses in the offshore financial centers (OFCs) in determine. These links and nexuses pose a greater which nexuses operate by utilizing specific legal threat to U.S. national security and the security of mechanisms available to victims of fraud and U.S. allies than Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal. money laundering. The paradox presented to the The U.S. intelligence community is faced with nexuses is that they must deposit or title their the task of penetrating these nexuses, which were holdings in jurisdictions which not only possess formed in the closed society of the USSR and strict banking secrecy laws, but also uphold disclo- gradually exported to other countries as the Soviet sure orders and freezing orders unique to many of Union liberalized and then collapsed. Economic these jurisdictions which allow victims or potential globalization, free trade agreements, and decreased victims to terminate the nexuses in the offshore travel restrictions have produced the unintended jurisdiction before the monies can be funneled consequences of an environment where nexuses into another country’s economy. Overt and covert flourish. For the purposes of this paper, a nexus investigations should be used in conjunction with will be defined as follows: the implementation of these legal proceedings. “A relationship between two or more individual The ability to combat nexuses presents the intelli- actors who are acting on behalf of their own inter- gence community with the opportunity for com- est, the interest of a sovereign nation state, or a bining forces with private intelligence and legal non-state actor (e.g., a corporate or criminal entity) specialists to protect the interests of the United .The motivations or intentions of the actors within States. Ironically, a nexus of the forces for good is the nexus may be multi-faceted as they may simul- necessary in order to defeat the post-Soviet nexus taneously represent the interests of one or many which aims to undermine the rule of law and the of the entities in question.” 5 For more on the concept of strategic intelligence see: Michelle 4 Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy, 4th Ed. Van Cleave, “Strategic Counterintelligence: What Is It and What Should We (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2009), p.242. Do About It?” Studies in Intelligence Vol. 51, No. 2 (2007) 17 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz - 7 In 8 Massachusetts: In regard to the analysis of the histori- to the analysis In regard Chekisty: A History of the KGB ( John J. Dziak Chekisty: Ibid., p.8 7 Lexington Books, 1988), p.7 8 security services the Russian cal ties between Dziak notes activities, criminal and organized Stalin and his Josef of ties between the existence to criminal Beria, Lavrentiy chief, NKVD eventual Caucasus (Stalin the pre-Soviet organizations in and after he his banditry before famous for was Okhrana. and the active) became politically weakened autocracy it inadequately served.” it inadequately autocracy weakened ful force after the death of Joseph Stalin in 1953. Stalin in 1953. after the death of Joseph ful force Criminal organizations flourished in the power It is difficult to death. left after Stalin’s vacuum pin-point at what time organized crime became but a substan- state, intertwined with the Soviet short, the example of the young Beria and Stalin Beria the young of the example short, Okhrana sometime serving as sometime criminals, Caucasus mirrors the in their native informants Security Service (FSB) and of the Federal nexus the present day. criminal organizations (COs) of corrupt and dehumaniz- system was The Soviet other than an ideological foundation lacking ing, to socialism or continued nebulous references World and after the Second communism before and hollow Since the ideological rhetoric was War. - experi the USSR did not lead to concrete actions, benefited Marxism which of inverted enced a form - the ruling nomenklatura (political elite) and mem ministries (security services and bers of the power In addition to the visible beneficia- the military). organized crime which system, ries of the Soviet Tsarist Russia reemerged as a power in active was 6 (New York: Charles York: (New Russia Under the Old Regime Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki The people who came to power in Russia The people who came to power In a more precise criticism of the evolution In a more precise criticism of the evolution It is important to remember that the Bol- It is important to Richard Pipes, political police of the imperial government. arrested, kept in jail, and sentenced to exile by the by sentenced to exile and in jail, kept arrested, ineffectual Okhrana and the it did to the relatively known. All of them had been shadowed, searched, searched, been shadowed, All of them had known. than , and his Oprichnina Terrible the Ivan Muscovy, Sons, 1974), p.317 Scribner’s the only Russian constitution that they had ever had ever they the only Russian constitution that tradition of “pre-Petrine shared more with the of ‘Extraordinary’ and ‘Temporary’ Laws: this was this was Laws: ‘Temporary’ and ‘Extraordinary’ of and KGB) MGB, NKGB, GUGB, OGPU, NKVD, 6 in October 1917 had grown up under the regime up under the regime in October 1917 had grown the GPU, Cheka and its future tributaries (i.e., Dziak claims that the and Russian historian Jack from their Tsarist oppressors. from their CIA analyst former of the Russian secret police, how to use the secret police to suppress dissent to use the secret police to suppress dissent how Richard Pipes suggests that the Bolsheviks learned Pipes suggests that the Bolsheviks Richard became the Cheka of Felix Dzerzhinsky. Historian Dzerzhinsky. became the Cheka of Felix dreaded Tsarist Okhrana of Vyacheslav von Plehve Plehve von Vyacheslav Tsarist Okhrana of dreaded cendancy to power including the secret police. The including the secret police. cendancy to power cratic organs of the state immediately after his as- cratic organs of the state immediately suggested. Lenin kept intact many of the bureau- intact many Lenin kept suggested. groundswell revolution as many historians have historians have as many revolution groundswell government in the fall of 1917. This was not a This was the fall of 1917. in government sheviks executed a coup d’état of the provisional a coup d’état of the provisional executed sheviks Historical Background Historical you need a nexus to defeat a nexus. to defeat a nexus need you integrity of Western financial systems. In short, short, In systems. financial Western of integrity 18 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis tial body of evidence suggests that the network litical elite, and COs did not end with the hammer of organized crime, the Komitet Gosudarstvennoy and sickle being replaced by the tricolor flag of the Bezopasnosti (KGB), and nomenklatura increased Russian Federation in 1991. dramatically with the ascendency of Leonid I. Patricia Rawlinson has described the rela- Brezhnev to the position of General Secretary tionship between organized crime and legitimate (1964-1982). Russian organized crime expert Yuriy structure (i.e., the recognized governing authority) Voronin accurately describes the socioeconomic as the “Chameleon Syndrome.” This label is appro- situation during the last three years of the Soviet priate as it reflects “the ability of organized crime, Union’s existence in which the hollow promises through its interaction with legitimate structures, of socialist utopia became visibly obsolete even to merge with and eventually play the proactive if criticism of the government’s economic and role in the Russian state.11 Rawlinson demonstrates social policies could only take place in the form (see Figures 1a and 2b) the historical development of samizdat (anti-regime writings passed covertly of COs and the Russian state from the Tsarist among political activists). “Organized crime in period through the late Yeltsin period in juxtaposi- Russia took root in the fertile irrationalities of a tion to the criminal nexus of legitimate and illegiti- planned economy and prospered in the vast black mate structures. Absent from Rawlinson’s analysis and gray markets that emerged in the last three is the specific relationship between the COs and decades of Communist rule.”9 The COs, impris- the KGB/FSB. If we include this in our analysis, oned by the NKVD under Stalin suddenly became then the foundations of the nexus are evident. The covertly allied with the security apparatus from Chameleon Syndrome, for the purposes of this pa- Khrushchev until the Soviet Union’s collapse. The per, will be viewed as a model which has been ex- one exception to the increase in the nexus of COs ported through multiple sources and now operates and the security services took place under the on behalf of the nexuses. This exported model is leadership of Yuriy V. Andropov (1983-1984), who the target for the U.S. intelligence community. The openly attacked this relationship when he fired the nexus is the web woven between legitimate and head of the MVD (Ministry of the Interior) Nikolai illegitimate structures, which are able to adversely A. Shchelokov and demoted Brezhnev’s son-in-law affect U.S. interests and U.S national security Lt. Gen. Yuri M. Churbanov for allegedly taking imperatives. Lowenthal points out that the post- bribes from organized crime groups.10 The rela- Soviet transformation of the intelligence services tionship between the security services, ruling po- are not reforms at all, but a metamorphosis into a 9 Yuriy A. Voronin, “The Emerging Criminal State: Economic and Political Aspects of Organized Crime in Russia” in Phil Williams ed. Russian 11 Patricia Rawlinson, “Russian Organized Crime: A Brief History” Organized Crime: The New Threat? (London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2000), in Phil Williams ed., Russian Organized Crime, p.29; For a more complete p.55 study of the Chameleon Syndrome see Patricia Rawlinson, Hunting the 10 “Under Andropov, Policeman’s Lot Isn’t Happy One,” John F. Chameleon: the problems of identifying Russian Organized Crime (London; Burns, New York Times, August 14, 1983 University of London Press, 1998) 19 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz The ‘Active The ‘Active 12 Assimilative’ and Assimilative’ roles ‘Proactive’ between played legitimate and ill- legitimate structures within the interna- tional system are most appropriate for analyzing the nexus This late stage target. repre- development sents the utilization out- (i.e., of foreign side of the Russian struc- Federation) tures to promote the goals of the nexuses. attempt to Nexuses manipulate the grey legiti- areas between mate and quasi-legiti- a broad range of a broad range of topics. End of Gorbachev era End of Gorbachev 1991 August coup Russi ‘new’ and Yeltsin Nepotism and mass corruption in Central Asian republics (late down Slowing 1970s). economic growth. Perestroika Democratization Tsarist autocracy totalitarianism Soviet Quasi-totalitarianism Tsarist autocracy totalitarianism Soviet Lowenthal, Intelligence, p.326. See footnote 4. See footnote p.326. Intelligence, Lowenthal, mate economic structures (see Appendix 2b ‘Active ‘Active Appendix 2b mate economic structures (see The legitimate structures under Assimilative’). financial media, Western include the assault may first and legal systems, capital markets, systems, mt fur Verfassungschutl (BfV)- Federal Office for Office Federal (BfV)- Verfassungschutl mt fur that one said of the Constitution] the Protection (120 in Germany all Russian diplomats third of against working the SVR, part of were out of 360) 12 FIGURE 1a CRIME IN RUSSIA PROACTIVE ACTIVE ACTIVE ASSIMILATIVE PASSIVE PASSIVE ASSIMILATIVE REACTIVE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEGITIMATE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZED BETWEEN LEGITIMATE STRUCTURE AND THE RELATIONSHIP Active role in privatization Active business contracts Foreign figures bought Political Media manipulation Infiltration into banking Growth of shadow of shadow Growth economy increase in Tsekhoviki economic base laundering Mass money - economic ven into new tures cooperatives, joint ventures Vanka Kain Vanka (1940s) of bitches War (II) v zakone Vory tsekhoviki market- Black Early 1970s Bandits, Pugachev, etc. Pugachev, Bandits, (I) v zokone Vory (Less sophisticated gangs, teenage groups) Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki Sluzhba Vneshnei [Sluzhba The SVR which Razvedki Germany’s domestic intelligence service [Bundesa- Germany’s efforts against al-Qaeda. Similarly, the head of Similarly, against al-Qaeda. efforts and those of the Chinese diverted resources from and those of the Chinese diverted gence officers in the U.K.,’ and that their activities U.K.,’ gence officers in the been no decrease in ‘undeclared Russian intelli- been no decrease in Russian spies. MI5 director Evans said there had MI5 director Evans Russian spies. of large numbers of ported the presence Germany have re- have Germany ever, both Britain and both Britain ever, - How of overseas. in Russia instead contacts with agents the SVR to have the SVR to have making it easier for making it easier for the Soviet Union, Union, the Soviet accessible than was accessible than was now more open and now cosmetic. Russia is cosmetic. have been largely have ers believe this may this may ers believe cessor. Some observ- Some cessor. zation than its prede- more benign organi- to portray itself as a to portray presence, attempting presence, reduced its overseas reduced its overseas of the fact that it has of the fact that it pionage] made much pionage] made much responsible for es- responsible for Chief Directorate First the KGB’s formerly was a relatively free-flow of foreign citizens. foreign citizens. of free-flow a relatively subtle role conducive to a Russia which allows for for allows which to a Russia role conducive subtle 20 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis among which are located in OFCs. to properties and corporations. Often monies Economic globalization, through its reli- titled or vaulted in OFCs are acquired fraudu- ance upon cheap transportation and telecommu- lently. Furthermore, numerous double-taxation nications, has created an environment in which treaties developed between OFCs, such as that nexuses thrive. Global free trade agreements have between Cyprus and the USSR, for the purpose doubled global FIGURE 2b of acquiring GDP since the THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEGITIMATE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZED foreign currency CRIME IN RUSSIA early 1990s, but as and developing economist Moi- financial ties to ses Naim points Bandits, teenage groups Usually strong. Po- Western Europe, litical and economic out, in the same No desire or ability to ne- REACTIVE stability. No need to are now utilized gotiate and break into the negotiate. period worldwide legitimate structures to support the money-laundering nexuses. Ar- has increase near- Integration into legiti- Subtle weakening cane, Soviet-era mate structures, usually of structures, e.g. ly fifteen fold.13 as informant or low level ACTIVE economic slump, law double-taxation bribery. Restricted level of enforcement not in Offshore financial money laundering ASSIMILATIVE full control. Prepared treaties have to negotiate on pre- havens such as the scribed terms. stunted econom- Channel Islands, ic productivity Integration now more Political and economic Cyprus, British controlled. Bribery moves structures significantly in many of the into higher level of legit PASSIVE weakened Power Virgin Islands, structures. Money-laun- vacuums. Grey areas USSR’s succes- dering widespread ASSIMILATIVE between legit and il- Cayman Islands, legit increase. sor states in- Active and significant par- Mauritius, and ticipation in legit economy Negotiating strength cluding Ukraine. on a par with orga- Marshall Islands, nized crime. “The nation’s not to mention [Ukraine] oli- traditional fi- Significant control of legit Anomie garchs and loyal structures, particularly nancial centers economic and law en- PROACTIVE Acquiescence replaces political elite forcement. Manipulation negotiation. in Switzerland, in politics continue to Austria, and Li- profit from these chtenstein all have banking secrecy laws that the 14 nexuses use to launder money or to hold titles of the initial introduction of funds into the financial system. In the layer- ing phase, the launderer engages in a series of conversions or movements of the funds to distance them from their source for instance through the purchase or sale of investment instruments. Finally, the funds are inte- 13 Moises Naim, “It’s the Illicit Economy, Stupid,’ Foreign Policy grated into the legitimate economy through the purchase of properties or No. 151 ( November/December, 2005) investments. For a more complete definition see the Financial Action Task 14 The term Money Laundering (ML) is defined as follows: The Force explanation of ML at: http://www.fatf-gafi.org/document/29/0,374 funneling of the monetary proceeds of crime through the financial system 6,en_32250379_32235720_33659613_1_1_1_1,00.html Accessed on 26 so as to cover the source of the ill-gotten gain. ML is a three stage process October 2011. The criminal definition of ML in the United States is defined consisting of “placement,” “layering,” and “integration.” Placement consists by 18 U.S.C. §1956 21 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz - - , nexuses prefer to nexuses , 17 Nexuses thrive in the different shades of shades in the different thrive Nexuses The opacity of the nexuses outlined in this The opacity of the nexuses Litvinenko died by poisoning in November 2006, after consum- poisoning in November died by Litvinenko 17 of dosage ing a fatal to him by given 210 which was allegedly Polonium of after the two met in the Pine Bar Andrei Lugovoi former FSB agent fallen out ofallegedly had the Millennium Hotel in London. Litvinenko the oligarch with President Vladimir Putin after deciding to work for favor a summary of For Boris Berezovsky. affair see Chapter 10, the Litvinenko Stewart and Lansley Londongrad: in Mark Hollingsworth “Murder Inc.” Cash; The Inside Story With of Russia From (London: Fourth the Oligarchs 2009) Estate, ergo. ergo. of different the interaction by made possible grey of the figures Many and cultures. legal traditions public Western in this paper employ examined con- ever before experts and legal relations firms in intrigue or assassination. sidering participating rabota to utilizing chyernaya Although not immune as in such Stalin, quote I.V. to operations), (black FSB of former murder the case of the mysterious Litvinenko Alexander officer operate through benign mediums of subversion. operate through benign mediums as far as cross-cultur to remember, It is instructive KGB and former Warnig mer Stasi captain Mathias Vladimir Putin is an example Lieutenant Colonel as this relationship has par excellence, of a nexus al analysis is concerned, what seems highly irra- al analysis is concerned, be perfectly may tional to a United States citizen, Vladimir Putin in understanding the rational to with role of corruption in society in conjunction the rule of law. documented resources difficult to makes study the relationships between the However, uncover. of the within the context players forementioned an Russia-European natural gas trade provides mul- operates to achieve the nexus of how example for The relationship between tiple strategic goals. - July 29, 2010 16 Kyiv Post Stack continues: Stack 15 Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki The end result of such an operation is the The end result of such The point is that the company then pays then pays The point is that the company Transfer pricing means that subsidiaries means that subsidiaries pricing Transfer Graham Stack “High Price of Havens,” Ibid. example of the gas trading company RosUkrEn- of the gas trading company example porations. Just such a case will be discussed in the such Just porations. policy through state-controlled multi-national cor where the Kremlin could implement its foreign where the Kremlin could implement its foreign favorable economic environment in another state favorable bolster an individual’s net worth while creating a net worth bolster an individual’s 15 own benefit. Furthermore, the nexus may serve to serve may the nexus Furthermore, benefit. own law but simply manipulate existing laws to their laws but simply manipulate existing law 16 are most successful when they do not break the are most successful when they tronage. It is important to remember that nexuses It is important to remember that nexuses tronage. distributing ill-gotten gains through political pa- distributing ill-gotten gains through depriving the state of legitimate tax revenue while tax revenue depriving the state of legitimate their interest by private capture of the state by reporter Graham Stack. Graham Stack. reporter sweet tax deals at the nation’s expense,” writes writes expense,” nation’s at the tax deals sweet of the Cyprus double taxation treaty. tax for the offshore shareholder under the terms the offshore shareholder under the terms tax for ible for the company in Ukraine and exempt from in Ukraine and exempt the company ible for instead of declaring profits. Interest is tax deduct- Interest is tax instead of declaring profits. interest to shareholders on these outsize loans, outsize loans, interest to shareholders on these hence the term. exceed its actual capitalization many times over, times over, its actual capitalization many exceed of equity. The onshore company’s debt can thus The onshore company’s of equity. onshore companies in the form of loans instead in the form onshore companies talization schemes to provide funding to their to provide talization schemes tax haven. Offshore shareholders use thin capi- Offshore shareholders use tax haven. profit is realized where tax is least – invariably a where tax is least – invariably profit is realized prices they charge each other so that company company other so that each charge prices they belonging to one international holding skew the skew holding to one international belonging 22 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis served as the pivot in energy diplomacy between siloviki, Gazprom, the Semion Mogilevich Crime Russia and Germany.18 This nexus began when Group (SMCG), oligarchs, and the government of the men were working together in East Germany Ukraine through the shadowy gas trading interme- during the 1990s and continues to linger. Warnig diary known as RosUkrEnergo (RUE). The RUE has played a major role in the development of the case demonstrates how the nexuses utilize offshore Nord Stream gas pipeline which traverses the Bal- financial centers to pursue their own interests tic Sea from Russia to Germany.19 Scholar Marshall independently and in alliance with Kremlin policy. Goldman summarizes the Putin-Warnig nexus: Case Study: RosUkrEnergo “…Matthias Warnig was appointed managing direc- Vladimir Putin and the Semion Mogilevich tor of Nord Stream, the company that would build Crime Group and operate the pipeline. Warnig, who at the time The use of natural gas as an instrument of was board chairman of the Russian branch of Dres- Russian foreign policy is well known to students of dner Bank, had worked with Putin in East Germany geopolitics. “With its natural gas and oil pipelines during the 1980s when both were intelligence agents: that tie Europe to Russia like an umbilical cord, Warnig a captain in the Stasi, the East German Se- Russia has unchecked powers and influence that cret Police (or the East German Ministry of Foreign Trade, as his official biography describes it), and in a real sense exceed the military power and influ- Putin a Lieutenant Colonel in the KGB. Their paths ence it had in the Cold War.”21 crossed again in St. Petersburg when Putin was put RosUkrEnergo (RUE) is a gas trading com- charge of the mayor’s [Anatoly Sobchak] office for pany and has been registered in the Swiss city of foreign economic relations. Warnig negotiated with Zug since July 22, 2004. It served as an intermedi- Putin for an operating license in St. Petersburg for ary trading firm, supplying natural gas from Cen- Dresdner Bank, and it became the first foreign bank tral Asia via the Gazprom-owned pipeline network to receive such permission to operate in St. Peters- to Ukraine’s state-owned gas company Naftohaz. burg.” 20 The creation of RUE was announced in July 2004, Simply stating the obvious about the during a meeting in Yalta between Russian presi- Putin-Warnig relationship would leave this study dent Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart incomplete. More interesting is the relationship Leonid Kuchma, as the ostensibly “transparent” and goals of the nexuses which take place within replacement for Eural Trans Gas (ETG), which had the gas trade between Vladimir Putin and other been serving as the intermediary since late 2002.22 18 “Report Links Putin to Dresdner,” The St. Petersburg Times Tuesday, March 1, 2005. < http://www.sptimes.ru/index.php?action_ 21 Ibid., p.15 id=2&story_id=2858> 22 The owner of ETG was Dmytro Firtash who, according to 19 For more on Matthias Warnig’s role in the Nord Stream pipeline researcher Roman Kupchinsky, “had little known assets” when he established project see: Hans Martin-Tillack “A tale of gazoviki, money and greed,” the company yet “received $300 million in credits from Russian banks in Stern September 13, 2007 2003.” See Roman Kupchinsky, “Gazprom’s European Web” The Jamestown 20 Marshall I. Goldman, Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Rus- Foundation, February, 2009, p. 5-6. For a precise history of ETG and its role sia (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 158-159 in the Turkmenistan-Russian-Ukrainian gas trade see: “It’s a Gas: funny 23 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz 27 President Obama mentioned Mogile- President Obama 26 Semion Mogilevich is wanted by the United the by is wanted Semion Mogilevich The necessity for a company such as RUE such a company The necessity for United States of United States Fisherman; Igor Semion Mogilevich; America v. The President of Strategy Trans- to Combat the United States, Strategy to Combat Transnational Orga- Transnational in his Strategy to Combat vich 2011. released in July nized Crime, laun- and money racketeering, fraud, States for Ten recently added to the FBI’s dering and was - and sev Mogilevich list. fugitives Wanted Most were eral members of his criminal organization - in 2003 in the Eastern District of Pennsyl charged indictment with in a 45-count racketeering vania in a sophisticated securities fraud and involvement alleg- they in which scheme, money-laundering YBM Magnex, company, edly used a Pennsylvania of more than $150 million. to defraud investors on after that indictment—and being placed Even has list—Mogilevich Wanted Most Ten the FBI’s Mogile- his criminal empire. continued to expand Russian police on tax charges arrested by was vich released pending trial 2008 and was in January Other members of his organization 2009. in July remain at large. Asian gas is is negligible as the price of Central 26 15-16 02-157 (A), (30), (d), p. Criminal No. Tsoura Anatoly Bogatin; Jacob 27 2011), p.21 July, DC, Crime (Washington, Organized national cluding offshore locations such as the Republic of the Republic as such locations offshore cluding Islands, the Cayman the South Pacific, Nauru in as Canada, as well in the Caribbean, and Nevis Ukraine and Lithuania, Israel, Hungary, England, for law it more difficult in order to make Russia, as securities regulators, authorities, enforcement - exam and forensic auditors YBM Magnex’s as well nature of their criminal the true to uncover iners, operations.” - 24 April, 2006. Mogilevich is currently on the Mogilevich Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki 25 Firtash turned out to be the owner of to be the owner turned out Firtash 23 The FBI’s Intelligence Section issued an Intelligence Section issued The FBI’s The report also links Mogilevich to the The report also links Mogilevich In December, 2002, then U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Carlos 2002, then U.S. In December, Semion Mogilevich Organization, Eurasian Organized Crime, Crime, Eurasian Organized Organization, Semion Mogilevich 33 Ibid., pp.31, services and top-level government officials.” government services and top-level tion apparently extends to the Russian security to the Russian security tion apparently extends corruptive influence of the Mogilevich Organiza- influence of the Mogilevich corruptive nization in August, 1998. The reports states: “The The reports states: 1998. August, nization in - Orga on the Semion Mogilevich report extensive were displaced by the creation of RUE. creation of RUE. the displaced by were the face of the fact that none of the ETG interests that none of the ETG interests the face of the fact that this would bring any sort of change flies in sort of change bring any that this would by presidents Putin and Kuchma and their claim Putin and Kuchma presidents by 45 percent of RUE so the switch in intermediaries in intermediaries switch of RUE so the 45 percent 23 warned the Firtash-Mogilevich Pascual the Ukrainian about government Ukraine several signed months ago, link. “In December 2002, just a few and Naftog[h]az NAK increased Gazprom’s control over agreements that office in trading company with a U.S. gas Itera [also a Russian its activities. was pushed Florida], many as a Gazprom competitor, seen by Jacksonville, out of Gazprom intermedi a new and substituted for the Ukrainian market business in the Turkmen-Ukrainian Gas Trade” in the Turkmen-Ukrainian Gas business Global Witness ary, Eural Trans Gas. According to press accounts, Eural Trans Gas was According to press accounts, Eural Trans Gas. ary, the contract was signed with just before registered in Hungary day the $12,000 in charter In addition, media reports capital. link Eural Trans Gas indicted recently who was crime figure Semion Mogilevich, with organized 23, 2003. As cited May Ambassador Pascual, Speech by in the United States.” Gazprom, p.6 in Kupchinsky, 24 Department of Bureau of Federal Justice, the prepared by Investigation, 1998), p.34 Intelligence Unit (August, Intelligence Section, Organizational 25 Mogilevich. to the “don of dons” of the Russian mafia, Semion mafia, of the Russian dons” “don of to the The owner of ETG, Dmytro Firtash, has close links links has close Firtash, Dmytro of ETG, owner The accounts in over twenty different countries, in- different countries, twenty accounts in over the scheme to defraud using companies and bank the scheme and Anatoly Tsoura, states that they “implemented states that they Tsoura, Anatoly and and co-defendants Igor Fisherman, Jacob Bogatin, Bogatin, Jacob and co-defendants Igor Fisherman, $150 million. The federal indictment of Mogilevich The federal indictment of Mogilevich $150 million. ers YBM Magnex, a Pennsylvania-based firm, of firm, a Pennsylvania-based YBM Magnex, ers - defrauding sharehold for list Wanted Most FBI’s La Cosa Nostra. Italian Comorra and New York-based Genovese Genovese York-based Italian Comorra and New 24 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis negotiated directly between Gazprom and the Slavs) makes them the immediate target of a Rus- governments of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and sia faced with a looming demographic disaster Uzbekistan without the help of RUE, a company should Russia not be able to co-opt states like that does not own any gas production facilities Ukraine back into the proverbial “overlordship of or pipelines and is therefore unable to influence Muscovy.”31 negotiations.28 Given the fact that Gazprom is not The manipulation of energy resources in only a monopolist supplier to Ukraine but also a the trading relationships between energy rich monopsonist29 purchaser of Central Asian gas, one countries such as Russia and energy poor ones is forced to ponder the question why one state such as Ukraine and Belarus produce ‘rents of owned company, Gazprom, needs an intermediary dependency’32 which in turn allow private citi- company with no pipeline infrastructure to sell zens to capture state power through the monies gas to Ukraine’s state-owned firm Naftohaz. The acquired fraudulently in the natural gas trade. answer to this riddle cuts directly to the goal of the Eventually, these rents, which are almost always goals of the nexuses that operate RUE. RUE serves gathered through some sort of fraudulent relation- the foreign policy goals of the Kremlin, which ship, are used to coerce the state into formulating seeks to draw, in this case Ukraine, but also other policy based on the interests of the elites which post-Soviet states, back into Russia’s sphere of control the relationship. In short, the private influence. Energy supplies are used to coerce and citizens grow richer in exchange for monies fun- manipulate these states into adopting more mal- neled to politicians who in the case of Ukraine leable policies towards Russia regarding a variety produce policies favorable to Moscow.33 These poli- of issues including the rejection of NATO enlarge- cies include the extension of the lease of the port ment, continuance of Russian military installations on the foreign state’s soil (e.g., the Black Sea Fleet 31 Nicholas Eberstadt and Aproova Shah, “Russia’s Demographic Disaster” American Enterprise Institute, May, 2009. 37 Ms. Tymoshenko refused to Tymoshenko Ms. 38 Although Tymoshenko successfully termi- Tymoshenko Although Matthew Kaminski, “The Rise and Fall of Yulia Tymoshenko,” Tymoshenko,” Yulia Matthew Kaminski, “The Rise and Fall of Supplemental Mo Pavel Lazarenko America v. United States of to Admit Statements of Yulia Tymoshenko as Co-conspirator Tymoshenko Yulia Admit Statements of Limine to 37 < http://online.wsj.com/article/SB Street Journal, October 24, 2011. Wall The 10001424052970203914304576629001126377580.html> 38 tion in United States District Court Northern District of California San Francisco Division, March 30, 2004 Russia. This created a pipeline “pincer movement” movement” “pincer a pipeline created This Russia. ap- Germany like European consumers in which the on Ukraine while pressure plied diplomatic from the pressure axis applies Kremlin-Gazprom ledger. supply side of the RUE Gazprom and between nated the relationship doing so ap- for her motivations Naftohaz in 2009, political considerations in by pear to be motivated - Yanu to and his support Firtash undercutting Mr. who hails Tymoshenko, of Regions. Party kovych’s Dnepropetrovsk, from the same city as Mogilevich, trading business, only entered politics after her gas was (UESU), United Energy Systems of Ukraine of the of political patronage in the wake deprived United States of fall and subsequent arrest in the Prime former her one-time business partner and Tymoshenko’s Under Lazarenko. Pavlo Minister, $120 million to Lazarenko’s UESU wired watch, Antigua. and offshore accounts in Switzerland Lazarenko was convicted in the United States was Lazarenko laundering as a result of mail fraud and money of transferring monies made in the gas trade was Lazarenko to banking accounts in the U.S. Court in the Northern Federal guilty in U.S. found often Tymoshenko, and Ms. District of California of supporter media as a stalwart lauded in the U.S. named an unindicted co-con- was of democracy, spirator in the case. - The Fur 36 34 April 22, 2010. Former Former 35 Kyiv Post “Russian counter-intelligence “Russian counter-intelligence Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki Edward Chow describes the Tymoshenko agreement of January Tymoshenko Edward Chow describes the Taras Kuzio, “The FSB Returns to Ukraine” May 24, 2010. Kuzio, Taras Ibid. 2009 as follows: “One of the fundamental flaws of the January 19, 2009, as sale and purchase agreement is that it set too high a base price for Russian gas The $330 per 1,000 cubic meter price we are told Ukraine would to Ukraine. have had to pay for Russian gas this quarter is higher than the Russian gas sale Europe today (April 22, 2010)….The ’30 percent discount’ Western price to agreement] is just as phony as the ‘20 percent discount’ of 2010 [Yanukovych “Bad deal all around” of 2009.”See Edward Chow, 34 now imprisoned by Ukrainian authorities. Ukrainian imprisoned by now 2009) prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is who Tymoshenko, Yulia 2009) prime minister had been previously agreed to by then (January, then (January, by agreed to had been previously change for a mythical natural gas discount which which natural gas discount a mythical for change - in ex Yanukovych Viktor of government current Fleet (RBSF) from 2017 until 2042 made by the the by until 2042 made from 2017 Fleet (RBSF) facilities in Sevastopol to the Russian Black Sea Black Russian to the in Sevastopol facilities infringing the Criminal Code of Ukraine.” infringing the Criminal Code of towards, collecting secret information and thereby and thereby collecting secret information towards, impact on Ukraine. impact on Ukraine. and steps collection of, including the covert tions, of the FSB to the Crimea would have a negative a negative have of the FSB to the Crimea would on our territory unfriendly ac- undertaken have Nalyvaychenko explicitly stated why the return stated why explicitly Nalyvaychenko Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) chief Valentyn Valentyn chief Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) political concessions to be made by Ukraine to political concessions to be made by sumers has created the conditions for long-term sumers has created the conditions for quently the Central and Western European con- Western quently the Central and Gazprom, through RUE, to Ukraine and subse- through RUE, Gazprom, The numerous instances of supply termination by termination by The numerous instances of supply Kremlin’s use of natural gas as a political weapon. use of natural gas as a political weapon. Kremlin’s FSB to the Crimea represent the end result of the FSB to the Crimea represent the additional 25-30 years and the redeployment of the and the redeployment additional 25-30 years surrender of the Ukrainian basing facilities for an facilities for surrender of the Ukrainian basing of Russian FSB officers in Sevastopol. of Russian FSB to the Kremlin’s request to allow for the basing for request to allow to the Kremlin’s thermore, the Yanukovych government also ceded also ceded government Yanukovych the thermore, cooperate with the U.S. Department of Justice. tails about Mogilevich. Tymoshenko has been praised as the individual Derkach: “He’s on good terms with Putin. He and who finally terminated the role of RUE as part of Putin have been in contact since Putin was still in Leningrad.”40 the January 19, 2009 gas agreement (see above). Kuchma: “I hope we won’t have any problems be- This act certainly had a short-lived negative effect cause of this.” 41 on the business interests of Dmytro Firtash and his backer Semion Mogilevich, but did this serve Unconfirmed reports linked Putin to Mo- the interests of Tymoshenko’s political career? For- gilevich through the late Roman Tsepov, whom mer SBU (Ukrainian Intelligence Service) officer Putin knew since he worked in St. Petersburg with Nalyvaychenko claims that Tymoshenko ordered Mayor Anatoly Sobchak’s office. Tsepov’s firm, his predecessor Oleksandr Turchynov to destroy Baltik-Eskort, provided security for Sobchak and a top secret dossier on Semion Mogilevich that Putin.42 Tsepov was murdered by poison around linked him to past business dealings with Tymosh- September 24, 2004 and, as journalist Charles enko.39 Was Tymoshenko concerned with the pos- Gurin notes, the fact that Tsepov was representing sibility of kompromat (blackmail) in light of the fact himself as an ally of President Putin may have led that she fully intended to seek the presidency after to his demise. her political marriage with President Viktor Yush- Moskovskiye Novosti reported in July that chenko ended in a bitter divorce? Tsepov had presented himself to Yukos sharehold- Vladimir Putin is also alleged to be linked ers as essentially having been commissioned by to Mogilevich. Mykola Melnychenko, a member of Sechin [Igor Sechin is a former GRU officer and Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma’s security de- was Putin’s Presidential Chief of Staff], Zolotov tail, taped a conversation February 8, 2000 between [Viktor Zolotov worked for Baltik-Eskort and then SBU chief Leonid Derkach and President served as head of President Putin’s security ser- Kuchma which suggested Putin and Mogilevich vice], and even Putin to “come to terms” with the have known each other since Putin lived and embattled oil company. “As soon as the ‘Kremlin worked in St. Petersburg. representative’ asked for a big advance on his ser- Kuchma: “Have you found Mogilevich?” Derkach: “I found him.” vices, his powers were called into question. Tse- Kuchma: “So, are you two working now?” pov’s former relationship with Zolotov and Sechin Derkach: “We’re working. We have another meeting 40 Leningrad changed its name to St. Petersburg shortly after the col- tomorrow. He arrives incognito. lapse of the Soviet Union. 41 Later in the discussion Derkach revealed a few de- Roman Kupchinsky, “The Strange Ties between Semion Mogi- levich and Vladimir Putin,” Eurasia Daily Monitor Vol. 6 No. 57 March 25, 2009. 44 It is clear that Mogilevich is connected at It is clear that Mogilevich It is clear that the SMCG has now assumed It is clear that the SMCG has now Moskovskiye Novosti 31, January Times, Charged,” Nekrasov Moscow “Mogilevich, 43 Ibid. 44 2008 July of 2009. of July Mogilevich was released without comment around released without was Mogilevich relation to their cosmetic business Arbat-Prestige, Arbat-Prestige, cosmetic business relation to their evasion charges along with Vladimir Nekrasov in Vladimir Nekrasov along with charges evasion , July 9). 9). July , Novosti on tax 2008 in Moscow January, being arrested in (Moskovskiye (Moskovskiye speculation” a matter of basically, are, After of the Russian government. the highest levels the level and quality of his present-day contacts contacts his present-day and quality of the level and possibly also with Putin is a hard fact, but fact, is a hard Putin also with possibly and First, we must diagnose the nexus of RUE and see the nexus must diagnose we First, destructive influence in a country like Ukraine. Ukraine. influence in a country like destructive the epicenter of the nexus, and counteract their the epicenter of the nexus, gence services can target intermediaries like RUE, RUE, gence services can target intermediaries like fluence. The unsolved question is how U.S. intelli- U.S. question is how The unsolved fluence. co-opt Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of in- co-opt Ukraine back regime are lock-step with the Kremlin’s desire to with the Kremlin’s regime are lock-step and the policy prescriptions of the Yanukovych Yanukovych and the policy prescriptions of the through offshore financial companies (see below), (see below), through offshore financial companies Yanukovych. Mogilevich established ties to Firtash established ties to Firtash Mogilevich Yanukovych. port for the Party of Regions and President Viktor Viktor of Regions and President the Party port for ETG and later RUE were sources of financial sup- sources of financial ETG and later RUE were above). Dmytro Firtash’s monies made through monies made Firtash’s Dmytro above). icy-making levels of the Russian Federation (see of the Russian Federation icy-making levels in his native Ukraine, but also at the highest pol- Ukraine, in his native Mogilevich not only wields tremendous influence Mogilevich Ukrainian governments. Evidence suggests that Ukrainian governments. ures 1a and 2b) in relationship to the Russian and ures 1a and 2b) in relationship to - (See Fig to quote Rawlinson role, ‘proactive’ a 28 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis between Highrock, ETG, Firtash, and Telish in 49Goldman’s remarks are more succinct. the following footnote from his 2009 monograph The shenanigans of Highrock, RUE, ITERA (the forerunner of Eural Trans Gas), and Gazprom il- Gazprom’s European Web: lustrate the skill with which veterans of the black A search of Cypriote-registered companies market in the Soviet era have learned to manipu- revealed that on December 31, 2000, a company late the market system and obfuscate their opera- called Agatheas Trading Ltd was registered in tions from even sophisticated investors. How they Nicosia. On December 28, 2000, the first share- learned to build such a web of false fronts hidden holder of Agatheas became Niki Nicolaou (54A assets for themselves despite having grown up in a system of relatively simple central planning Nicodmou Mylona str, Ayios Nicolaos, Limassol, remains a mystery. Where did they learn such Cyprus) owning 1,000 shares. That same day Niki sophisticated schemes? It was not taught to them Nicolaou was appointed director of the company in Soviet institutions of higher learning or in Gos- and Electra Erotocritou, the company secretary. plan, the state central planning agency.50 On January 30, 2001, Niki Nicolaou resigned as the director and Galina Telesh (address Veresaeva It is this Ukrainian “side” of RUE which St. 6-97, Moscow, Russia) was appointed director. exemplifies the tentacles of the nexuses between Telesh was the wife of Semyon Mogilevich. On political elites, former KGB like Putin, and leaders January 15, 2001, Firtash changed the name of of organized crime groups like Mogilevich. Kupchinsky performed excellent research into the Highrock Holding to Simia Holdings in Limesol, web of nameplate companies created to mask the Cyprus. In the document it is stated that among ownerships of the hyper-influential RUE. The web the shareholders of Simia Holdings was Agatheas weaves a path from Gazprom and the Ukrainian Holding with 2,745,000 shares. Agatheas was, at side (Dmytro Firtash 45% and Ivan Fursin 5%) the time, controlled by Galina Telesh, Mogilevich’s through numerous name plate companies domi- wife. Two years later, on February 24, 2003, Electra ciled in OFCs. RUE, like many gas intermediaries, Erotocritou resigned as company secretary of Ag- utilized OFCs in order to hide the ultimate ben- atheas and Mittelmeer Secretaries Ltd (10 Doiranis eficial owners (UBOs) of the organization. Switzer- St. Engomi, Nicosia, Cyprus) was appointed to land, Lichtenstein, and Austria were also used to this position. Niki Nicolaou gave her 1,000 shares create shell corporations used to mask the UBOs to Mittelmeer Nominee Ltd. On June 1, 2003, six of RUE. The UBOs were masked in order to shield months after Eural Trans Gas had been active, their association with organized crime, in particu- Telesh resigned and was replaced by Firtash. The lar Semion Mogilevich. Agatheas structure remained intact until July 2007. 49 Kupchinsky, Gazprom, p. 32. See footnote 25. 50 Goldman, Petrostate, p. 148. See footnote 23. 29 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz - - , August 15, Daily Mail 54 The overall goal of men like Firtash is to Firtash of men like goal The overall in masking ownership, The role OFCs play “MI5 ‘vetoed Security Minister over links to Ukrainian oli 54 garchs’,” Christopher Leake and Mark Hollingsworth, ranking elected official in the British government. government. British in the official elected ranking - the cam £30,000 towards funneled Shelter-Jones Neville- Pauline UK politician Baroness paign of National Security slated to become who was Jones Cameron before to Prime Minister David Advisor report linking her to both Firtash MI5 produced a Mikhail Chernoy. and oligarch and their links to Mogilevich but his money, make be coerced into him to allow link to the Kremlin Terminating acting on behalf of other interests. and to use OFCs money ability to make Firtash’s is central to to conceal assets and launder cash the nexuses. solving the problem presented by be denied access to must Firtash Individuals like in particular those of financial markets, Western the flow Staunching at all cost. the United States, to will terminate the ability of the nexus of money operate. and laundering fraud schemes, for cover providing so that: the fruits of the crime must be understood be established 1) proper intelligence targets may be (especially third-party facilitators who may opera- and covert 2) overt a bank); i.e., innocent, link-data-analysis proceed to determine tions may and the members of the nexuses; between (LDA) be created to disrupt 3) a legal plan of action may The legal in the OFC. and terminate the nexus measures must be applicable to the jurisdiction of crime fighters, for Luckily the OFC in question. 2010. < http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1303215/MI5-vetoed-Securi ty-Minister-Baroness-Pauline-Neville-Jones-links-Ukrainian-oligarchs.html> - Jane’s Jane’s Andrei 51 Not surpris- 52 53 Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki , October 19, 2007 as cited in Ibid. The Austria connection is of particular of particular is connection Austria The RUE has made Firtash so wealthy and so wealthy RUE has made Firtash The role jurisdictions that Cyprus and The role jurisdictions that Cyprus ., p.17. See footnote 25. Gazprom Kupchinsky, Ibid. Intelligence Service Needs a New Chief,” “Why Russia’s 51 52 53 Intelligence Digest Advisory Group), renamed Dehel GmbH. Group), Advisory ing company IMAG (Investment Management and (Investment IMAG ing company - the fall of the USSR) and the trad VTB Bank after principles. The KGB setup Donau Bank (renamed The KGB setup Donau Bank principles. to refuse to disclose the identity of a company’s the identity of a company’s to refuse to disclose ing secrecy laws that allow financial institutions financial institutions that allow ing secrecy laws cold war. Furthermore, Austria has strict bank- Austria Furthermore, cold war. and other Warsaw pact security services during the services during pact security Warsaw and other status made it a favorite playground of the KGB of the KGB playground it a favorite status made interest as Austria’s neutrality and non-NATO and non-NATO neutrality Austria’s as interest gain influence on Firtash’s behalf with a high Firtash’s gain influence on GroupDF, Robert Shelter-Jones, saw fit to try and saw Robert Shelter-Jones, GroupDF, influential that the CEO of his holding company influential that the CEO of his holding company countries such as the United Kingdom. as the United Kingdom. countries such East/Central Europe and perhaps even in Western Western in East/Central Europe and perhaps even to influence the policies of decision-makers in to influence the policies of decision-makers nee shareholders and other financial shenanigans concealing their business dealings through nomi- concealing their business dealings and Mogilevich all use OFCs as the locales for all use OFCs as the locales for and Mogilevich be emphasized enough. Dmytro Firtash, Gazprom, Gazprom, Firtash, Dmytro be emphasized enough. Austria play in allowing nexuses to operate cannot nexuses in allowing play Austria station in Europe. ingly, Vienna serves as the base for the largest SVR as the base for serves Vienna ingly, Akimov, who once ran Donau Bank, is now chair is now who once ran Donau Bank, Akimov, bank’s parent company Gazprom). parent company bank’s of RUE (the shares were purchased by Gazprom- by purchased of RUE (the shares were which until January 16, 2007 owned 50 percent 2007 owned 16, until January which man of the management Board of Gazprombank man of the management Board 30 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis many OFCs, including Cyprus (a holdover from its minate the nexuses’ objectives.55 British colonial tradition) fall under the auspices In the post-9/11 period, the FBI has under- of English common law. Although OFCs’ banking standably shifted its “pendulum of focus” toward practices vary, most include strict banking secrecy combating terrorist activities. In light of the fact laws and secrecy laws surrounding incorporated that more organized crime groups and terrorist entities (referred to as ‘name plate corporations’ organizations sought to use OFCs to mask the because they do not possess material assets and financing of their activities, the FBI would be well- are used simply to shield the UBO). served to deploy more of its capabilities and exper- tise to a role it has traditionally targeted: combat- Towards a Cooperative Solution: ing fraud and money laundering. The necessity for How the Intelligence Community can Dissuade and Deter Nexuses from collaboration with CIA, Treasury, the private sector, Achieving their Goals and Objectives and international organizations created for the specific purpose of protecting the financial sys- The first step in combating the nexuses tem from unlawful penetration and use cannot be discussed above is to encourage the United States emphasized enough. Therefore, the Office of the intelligence community, in particular the CIA, Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) should to develop a more robust HUMINT capability in be utilized as the center for interagency collabora- OFCs and in financial centers such as Vienna and tion along with the contracting center for private Zurich, but also in locales such as Cyprus, Macao, sector participants. ODNI can apportion appropri- Mauritius, British Virgin Islands, Channel Islands, ate funds from each agency to attack the nexuses. and Bermuda just to name a few. Intelligence The solution to the problem of nexuses agents should be well-versed in forensic account- is to attack them in the OFCs which they use to ing and understand the respective jurisdictions’ conceal the ownership of fraudulently acquired as- laws governing financial institutions. The CIA sets and launder monies to influence peddlers and should work in conjunction with the Department policymakers in the country they want to coerce. of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control At present nearly 800,000 companies are regis- (OFAC) and Financial Crimes Enforcement Net- tered in the British Virgin Islands. A 2006 estimate work (FinCEN) to train field operatives to collect concluded that at least 50 percent of all currency relevant financial data on nexuses operating in transactions processed internationally involve OFCs. Notwithstanding the issues surrounding OFCs.56 In the BVI, as in most other OFCs, the fol- personal privacy, Treasury may utilize the SWIFT lowing public information is available about these (Society for Worldwide International Financial 55 Lowenthal, Intelligence, p.259. See footnote 4. Telecommunications) to track financial flows and 56 Offshore Financial Services Information Center, available at: http://www.bviibc.com/about.htm as cited in Martin Kenney, “Combating misappropriated funds in order to target and ter- International Fraud,” Mondaq News, February 4, 2010. 31 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz - 59 - - (Tempe, Arizona: Facts on (Tempe, Business Background Investigations: Tools Investigations: Tools Business Background Specialized legal firms may appear ex Specialized legal firms may Author’s Note: The civil disclosure and freezing orders described Note: Author’s 60 - investiga in Internet fundamentals Basic Preemptive disclosure and freezing orders Preemptive * Cynthia Hetherington, injunction may be ordered by a court in order by be ordered injunction may in this paper are not allowed in the United States of America or in jurisdictions in this paper are not allowed in the United States of has The United States, generally speaking, Austria and Switzerland. such as too many due process laws for potential wrongdoers and thus ex parte dis closure and freezing orders are incongruent with the United States Constitu tion. Austria and Switzerland, whose legal traditions derive from the Code of Austria and Switzerland, whose legal traditions derive from tion. require criminal proceedings to be Justinian and not the English common law, initiated before freezing orders will be granted. , before the court in Nicosia or Limassol and before parte, Docu- Trust Pharmacal Bankers present a Norwich must meet prima facia criteria ment (NPBT) which search Civil the court. by in order to be approved - be grant as Anton Piller orders may orders known a legal team parte proceeding allowing ed in an ex evidence computers and documents for to search a Ma- Finally, of fraud and other financial crime. reva 59 for Solution Driven Due Diligence and Techniques Demand Press, 2010), p21 60 CRAWL of the with an appreciation tions begin Listen) Write Analyze Research (Communicate an investigator Cynthia Hetherington, process. in using the Internet to investigate who specializes and conduct corporate due dili- financial crime all OSINT professionals should gence states that varied as “As process. CRAWL be fluent in the experts all these are, investigation] these fields [of of CRAWLing.” the fundamentals need to know More complex data collection techniques are data collection techniques More complex through the implementation of software available Fur solutions that tend to be expensive. driven a familiarity with analysts should have thermore, and diagramming so as to be able to track LDA flows. monitor money OFC- favorite in one of the nexuses are available Cyprus. 58 , p.105. See footnote 3. Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki Intelligence 57 Open-source intelligence (OSINT) can be Open-source intelligence (OSINT) Ibid. Lowenthal, “Experienced intelligence practitioners have dis- “Experienced intelligence practitioners have covered that the Internet- meaning searches among that the Internet- meaning searches covered sites- yields no more than 3 to 5 percent of various practitioners spend is why That the total OSINT take. mean- Web,” “Deep time on what is called the much has that Web larger portion of the ing that a much Some experts engines. search by not been indexed is roughly some 500 Web estimate that the Deep Web.” times bigger than the easily accessible The name; of incorporation; The date - or not the corpora whether status [i.e., The current registration fee]; its yearly paying by tion is active and its address [one registered The registered agent of companies], registered thousands have agent may not available: are The following owners; Names of beneficial creditors; Names of any of annual administration The identity of the payer costs in the BVI; - avail The names of the directors are not publicly able. Copies of the articles of incorporation; Copies of the articles thal explains: 57 58 - Lowen untapped resource. Internet is a relatively tigative journalism and the World Wide Web. The tigative journalism Web. Wide and the World - of inves the value this monograph prove research money-laundering activities. The sources used to activities. money-laundering a legal case designed to attack nexuses’ fraud and nexuses’ a legal case designed to attack lection of information especially when married to especially when married lection of information an excellent starting-point for more developed col- more developed starting-point for an excellent companies: 32 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis to freeze monies acquired through illegal activity. States Intelligence community include the funding “Gagging orders frequently accompany pre-emptive and training of more robust HUMINT and FININT search (or Anton Piller) orders, information (or Norwich capabilities. Pharmacal/Bankers trust) orders, and asset freezing Intelligence organizations offer the benefit (or Mareva) injunctions. Their purpose is threefold- of their expertise in covert data collections and in- firstly, as alluded to above, to prevent a discovery target vestigations to answer questions relating to “how” from tipping off the underlying obligor or malefactor; a particular financial crime took place. It is impor- secondly to protect the alleged underlying wrongdoers from further reputational damage [for example a bank tant to remember that the perpetrator of a fraud that had unknowing facilitated a wrong] if it became is generally known, but how the crime was com- known they had become the subject to a search order; mitted is much more difficult to prove. Therefore, and finally to uphold public confidence in the fair ad- the entire investigative process must utilize both ministration of justice.”61 forward traces (from the commission of the crime) This paper argues in favor of a collective and reverse traces (from the point the ill-gotten intelligence effort beginning with collaboration of monies were spent) in order to determine not only Western intelligence agencies with organizations how the fraud was committed but what other enti- such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) ties may be beneficiaries from the fraud. and the Egmont Group which specialize in com- Covert action is not exclusively the pur- bating money laundering and developing financial view of the U.S. and allied intelligence community. intelligence. The FATF has played an important Many private investigative and security services role in other overt efforts to combat, for instance, may utilize covert investigative processes in order the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to determine how a financial crime was commit- (WMD), through its participation in the Prolifera- ted and who has benefitted. However, intelligence tion Security Initiative (PSI). Thus, the mecha- agencies have more capabilities and trained pro- nisms used to combat the financing of the nexuses fessionals to execute such investigations. In order have a dual-use role of combating the financing of to maximize results, intelligence agencies can work WMD proliferation and terrorist activities. A col- in collaboration with specialized legal firms to laborative effort should be made through special- provide covertly attained information to the firm ized law firms which are trained to obtain ex parte which is planning a legal challenge to uncover disclosure and freezing orders in OFC jurisdic- who the UBO, which is hiding behind a series tions in order to terminate the money flows of the of nameplate corporations. Thus the CIA could nexuses. Specific recommendations to the United provide information to the legal firm on where the hidden monies are being housed, for instance in a Cyprus bank account. The legal firm now “knows 61 Martin Kenney, “British Virgin Islands: The Use Of Sealing and Gagging Relief in Complex Insolvency Proceedings Involving the Investiga- where to look” and can begin the legal process of tion of Fraud and Discovery of Hidden Assets” Mondaq News, July 22, 2010 33 Siloviki Syndicalists Frederick S. Shultz - interests of the state, group, or individual actor. actor. individual or group, the state, of interests agencies in enforcement law intelligence and U.S. - recov legal and asset with specialized partnership in but globally, target the nexuses may ery teams favor possess laws which OFCs, particular in the able to masking fraud and money laundering. The laundering. fraud and money able to masking be increased in HUMINT capabilities must CIA’s be used may banking secrecy laws countries whose objectives. malevolent to achieve the nexuses by law in English common available The legal process to seize the as- jurisdictions should be employed or third-party fa- member of the nexus sets of any then fact a business, FSB is in new If the cilitator. be targeted the operations of the business must so the business will cease operations. and attacked and if the monies fuel- A business runs on money that operation ceases ing an operation are frozen, nexus a proverbial of “good” In short, to function. to upholding meaning an alliance of those devoted to termi- cooperatively must work the rule of law organized criminals, of siloviki, nate the nexuses in the post- and corrupt businessmen operating space Soviet - - - Vol. 1, Issue.8, 2010 Vol. 63 , p.327 Certain businesses, Certain businesses, 64 Intelligence Investigations Quarterly Siloviki Syndicalists Siloviki Covert data collection should be mar data collection Covert 62 The destructive role of the nexus as de- role of the nexus The destructive All investigations must begin with specific must begin with All investigations As quoted in Lowenthal, David P. Metzger and Sarah Duncan, “Facing the Facts: Keys to David P. Century Counterintelligence: Jennifer E. Simms, “Twenty-first (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2009) D.C.: Georgetown (Washington, tems to achieve their objectives. tems to achieve - from using the financial sys to dissuade nexuses niques, to quote Jennifer Simms, may be employed be employed may Simms, to quote Jennifer niques, - tech where mission-based counterintelligence swings heavily to the intelligence community heavily swings target the nexuses. At this point the pendulum target the nexuses. cases will not be appropriate for using courts to appropriate for cases will not be ried to investigations and legal proceedings. All proceedings. and legal ried to investigations ligence 64 62 an effective investigations’” an effective 63 Theoretical Basis for Reform,” pp.19-20 in Simms, Jennifer and Gerber, The Counterintel and Masks: Rediscovering U.S. Mirrors, Burton (eds.), Vaults, organization, it is a business.” organization, has stated: “The FSB is no longer just a police has stated: of financial markets worldwide. Yevgenia Albats Yevgenia worldwide. of financial markets and fraud have served to undermine the sover served and fraud have as Ukraine and the integrity eignty of nations such scribed in this paper is clear. Acts of corruption Acts scribed in this paper is clear. of events. on logical assumptions of the necessary sequence of the necessary sequence on logical assumptions goals in mind. Investigative steps must be based steps must Investigative goals in mind. the perpetrators (i.e., the players in the nexus). the players (i.e., the perpetrators tive of freezing the assets (Mareva injunction) of injunction) (Mareva the assets of freezing tive and Anton Piller orders with the eventual objec- the eventual orders with Anton Piller and building a case in order to attain a NPBT order order a NPBT to attain in order a case building variance of goals. The goals may be based on the The goals may of goals. variance and business elites in order to achieve an eclectic and business elites in order to achieve with organized crime and entrenched political with organized crime and entrenched ground for the security services to work in unison the security services to work ground for Russia to its European neighbors, provides fertile provides Russia to its European neighbors, in particular the transportation of natural gas from 34 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis strong states each pose unique challenges and The Evolving Terrorist merit distinctly different responses. The Bush Threat administration tended to amalgamate these threats under the “either you are with us, or you are with Adapting United States’ the terrorists” rhetoric,2 while the Obama adminis- Counter-Terrorism Strategy tration has demonstrated a better grasp of under- lying complexities.3 By Avi Panth & Chris Edelman1 The truth is that not all threats require di- rect military action or other drastic risk mitigation The views and opinions expressed in this article are measures that impose great financial burden and those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the threaten civil liberties. This paper presents a co- official policy or position of any agency of the U.S. hesive framework for the United States to address Government the threat of terrorism as it relates to state and transnational actors that is grounded in the prin- Introduction ciples of sound risk management and is sensitive to particular characteristics of each type of threat. In the aftermath of September 11, 2001, First, the paper defines the specific attributes of President George W. Bush’s administration formu- the state threat as well as the transnational threat. lated a counterterrorism strategy to curb threats It then discusses and evaluates the effectiveness of posed by nation states as well as by transnational the current United States counterterrorism strat- terrorist groups. This strategy was intended to egy and its unintended consequences. Lastly, the prevent state actors from passing weapons of mass paper defines a novel framework for future en- destruction (WMDs) to terrorist groups by treating gagement of state and transnational actors that is terrorist groups as single entities and focusing on firmly based on viable risk management strategies. their potential state allies. This strategic formu- Defining the Terrorist Threat lation has largely been embraced by the Obama Al-Qaeda and affiliated terrorist actors con- administration. Yet many major terrorist groups stitute the primary terrorist threat to the United such as al-Qaeda are not cohesive organizations. States today both because of their global reach Rather, they are composed of many smaller groups, and because of their stated intentions to harm the each posing different threats and requiring dif- ferent interventions. Similarly, there is no single 2 Bush, George W., “Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People,” Office of the Press Secretary, September 20, 2011, forced the core to rely on less lucrative financing they are rarely able to conduct high-profile at- methods.10 At present, the core also faces a crisis tacks. However, some network actors such as the of legitimacy, due in part to the success of U.S al-Qaeda offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Penin- efforts to counteract al-Qaeda propaganda as well sula (AQAP), are more receptive to guidance from as the consistent rejection of al-Qaeda’s violent the core and are more willing to attack the United methods by leaders of the Muslim orthodoxy. This States homeland; these network actors constitute combination of factors poses a key challenge for the most dangerous aspect of the network threat to the core’s continued survival. homeland security. Beyond the core organization, Al-Qaeda Finally, outside of the core and the net- has a network, which consists of affiliates of the work lies the periphery. The periphery is not a core who vary in how closely they follow the core’s formal part of al-Qaeda so much as it is an artifact guidance. For many within the network, such as of al-Qaeda core’s propaganda, aiming to craft Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), al-Shabab, and the Islamic the brand “al-Qaeda” as a global resistance move- Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), alignment with ment to mobilize additional support.12 The core al-Qaeda is a pragmatic rather than ideologi- utilizes the Internet and various social networking cal choice. Members of the network often align strategies to spread recruitment propaganda and themselves with al-Qaeda only to receive financial instructions for engaging in al-Qaeda’s style of support from the core and the global publicity violence.13 These cyberspace resources facilitate that comes with the linkage.11 Their interest in recruitment and radicalization of peripheral actors. attacking the United States is secondary to their The periphery is characterized by its lack of train- common goal of achieving domestic political out- ing and resourcing from the core or the network, comes by subverting existing regimes throughout and its ties to al-Qaeda are largely aspirational.14 the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Attacks on As a result, its attacks are often unsophisticated United States interests are designed to galvanize and physical damage is limited. These individu- local support for the network actor’s local cause, als include those that self-radicalize within the and these sorts of attacks rarely occur within the United States and other Western nations, a group United States but are more likely abroad. For known as “homegrown terrorists.” In 2009 alone, example, LeT targeted the Taj and Oberoi hotels in forty-three United States citizens were arrested Mumbai where Western tourists often stay. Net- and/or indicted for terrorist activity—more than work actors are generally more limited in their in any previous year—emphasizing the growing popularity, training, and fundraising capability 12 Ibid., p. 168. than are the core al-Qaeda organization; therefore, 13 “A Survey of Al-Qaeda: Winning or Losing?,” The Econo- mist, July 17 2008, Bergen, Peter, and Bruce Hoffman, “Assessing the Terrorist the Terrorist and Bruce Hoffman, “Assessing Bergen, Peter, < http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/NSPG%20 Iran, Al Links Between “New Pincus, Dan, and Walter Eggen, to Afghanistan. al-Qaeda operatives by facilitating their transit facilitating their by al-Qaeda operatives nese terrorist group Hezbollah and has even aided nese terrorist group Hezbollah and has even Iran, for instance, has well known ties to the Leba- known has well instance, for Iran, countries often have active ties to terrorists groups. ties to terrorists groups. active countries often have examples include Iran, Syria, and Sudan. These and Sudan. Syria, include Iran, examples done or actively sponsor terrorist actors. Salient sponsor terrorist actors. done or actively 15 are openly hostile to the United States and con- are openly hostile to the United of A Report Threat: Security Pre- Center’s National the Bipartisan Policy September 10, 2010, p. paredness Group” Center, [report], Bipartisan Policy 5. Final%20Threat%20Assessment.pdf>. 16 22, 2004, Defining the state threat peripheral threat to homeland security. homeland to threat peripheral support the Palestinian terrorist organization, terrorist organization, support the Palestinian also generally the least potent. also generally the least potent. and the core’s decline, though these threats are decline, and the core’s States homeland due to the periphery’s resilience due to the periphery’s States homeland the most common terrorist threats to the United terrorist threats to the United the most common enforcement personnel. Periphery threats are now now threats are Periphery personnel. enforcement not leave important leads for intelligence and law intelligence and law leads for important not leave resourced or well connected, they generally do generally they connected, resourced or well al-Qaeda. Because these elements are not well are not well these elements Because al-Qaeda. ery constitutes the most persistent threat from persistent threat the most ery constitutes their attacks are relatively low profile, the periph- the profile, low are relatively their attacks 38 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis do not actively facilitate terrorists. They do, how- Germany, India, and the United Kingdom—most ever, often become the nexus for terrorist activity. of which are also democratic states. However, In some cases, these governments may genuinely this category also includes authoritarian regimes attempt to curtail terrorist activity, but may be un- that are not always friendly to other United States able to do so due to limits in their policing power, policy interests, such as the current governments as is the case in Yemen. In other cases, the govern- in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These authoritarian ment is powerless to influence terrorist activity, as strong states, however, share a strategic interest in is the case in Somalia. Pakistan in particular poses eliminating terrorist groups within their boundar- a salient threat as a weak state because it possesses ies. For instance, the Egyptian regime under Hosni a dubious capability to secure its own nuclear Mubarak took strong measures to undermine arsenal.19 United States attempts at intervention groups such as the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (a cre- to curtail a terrorist threat are occasionally wel- ation al-Zawahiri, of core al-Qaeda leader), which comed, as is currently the case with Somalia and had tried on several occasions to assassinate him, Yemen. In other cases, intervention is complicated and al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya (an al-Qaeda network by sovereignty concerns and can delegitimize and affiliate). Now that Mubarak has been deposed, it further weaken vulnerable states. For example, remains to be seen what approach a newly-elected though the United States believes some of al-Qa- government in Egypt will take toward terrorism eda’s core leadership resides in the lawless tribal and United States engagement. areas of Pakistan,20 direct United States military intervention in Pakistani territory undermines the Current Engagement Strategy government’s legitimacy and ability to maintain or- Transnational actors der. A broader invasion into this region by United The United States currently confronts the States forces could galvanize terrorist activity in core organization and network actors by eliminat- those states by further radicalizing local support- ing resource and revenue streams, targeting mili- ers. tary installations and leaders, and seeing to pro- Finally, threats can emerge from strong mote a positive image of the United States abroad. states, which are characterized both by their ability Furthermore, the U.S. has targeted peripheral to limit terrorist activity within their borders and actors through controversial forms of intelligence by their commitment to doing so. These states of- gathering and law enforcement intervention. ten include the United States’ closest allies such as Confrontation begins at the core organiza- 19 Goldberg, Jeffrey and Marc Ambinder, “The Ally From Hell,” tion. Here, the United States makes strong use The Atlantic, December, 2011, 26 The Obama administration has The Obama administration 25 But force without rhetoric is insufficient. without rhetoric is insufficient. But force Leuprecht, Christian, Todd Hataley, Sophia Moskalenko, and Sophia Moskalenko, Hataley, Leuprecht, Christian, Todd Renditions—and Administration, Marian, “Under Obama Wang, 25 and Narrative But Losing the War? the Battle “Winning Clark McCauley, 3 No 2 (2009), pp. on Terrorism, Perspectives Counternarrative Strategy,” 1-5. 26 September 6, 2011, al-Qaeda’s funding. al-Qaeda’s stringent economic sanctions to curtail the core the to curtail sanctions economic stringent to the potential for further radicalization. to the potential for due to the recognition that civilian casualties lead strikes to prevent civilian casualties in Afghanistan civilian casualties in to prevent strikes military directives limit the use of air and mortar military directives ing to minimize collateral damage. For example, example, For ing to minimize collateral damage. tives are generally targeted towards leaders, aim- leaders, are generally targeted towards tives targeted killings of its leaders. Decapitation initia- Decapitation targeted killings of its leaders. degrading the quality of the organization through degrading the quality of the organization a prioritization on decapitation strategy—that is, strategy—that is, a prioritization on decapitation al-Qaeda to collect money. al-Qaeda to collect and sanctions have also made it more difficult for also made it more difficult and sanctions have of its operational budget as a result of such efforts, efforts, budget as a result of such of its operational leadership. Al-Qaeda has lost a significant portion has lost a significant Al-Qaeda leadership. ties, companies, and personal assets that aid core assets that aid and personal companies, ties, successful assassination operation of Osama Bin 40 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis The United States recognizes that there The final threat the United States con- is a difference between al-Qaeda’s core and its fronts comes from the periphery. Counter- network, but it still utilizes similar methods to narrative strategies are broadly targeted towards deal with network actors as it does with the core. individuals at risk of self-radicalizing—the main The Obama Administration has made positive constituency of the periphery. These strategies developments by acknowledging that the ter- undermine the justifications that al-Qaeda utilizes rorist threat extends beyond Al-Qaeda’s core to to recruit members. Similarly, the United States many network groups that are distinguishable in secures important sites to prevent peripheral at- crucial ways. President Obama explicitly acknowl- tacks, because an under resourced peripheral actor edged in his 2010 National Security Strategy that cannot orchestrate an attack with the sophistica- “[al-Qaeda’s] core in Pakistan remains the most tion necessary to attack these newly secured sites. dangerous component of the larger network, but Financial and military operations are not relevant we also face a growing threat from the group’s against peripheral actors given that they leave few allies worldwide.”27 The Transportation Security financial traces and can more easily be intercepted Administration’s recent decision to outfit airports by domestic law enforcement. However, the Bush with full body scanners and pat-downs in response administration utilized intelligence assets to detect to network actor Umar Farouq Abdulmutallab’s and counteract peripheral threats. Namely, the ad- attempt to blow up an airliner with explosives ministration used data mining (an electronic data smuggled in his underwear on Christmas Day of profiling practice) and a controversial domestic 2009 reflects a growing sensitivity to network ac- wire-tapping regime authorized by the PATRIOT tors. (Abdulmutallab was trained and resourced Act, amid controversy, to more adeptly intercept by AQAP, a network affiliate of core al-Qaeda.) “homegrown” peripheral threats. Still, the United States utilizes similar financial op- State Actors erations to fight network elements, such as LeT, as The United States has had a more difficult 28 it does with core elements. Similarly, it marshals time attempting to form cohesive security policy military and intelligence resources—using targeted to deal with state actors. The great diversity and killing with drones and special operations forces— breadth of threats that emanate from this cat- 29 to counteract network actors such as AQAP. egory makes it a particularly difficult one for any country to confront, and the United States in a 27 Obama, Barack, 2010 National Security Strategy, p. 20. See foot- note 3. particularly precarious situation given its forward 28 Kellerhals, Merle D., “Treasury Imposes Sanctions on Two Pakistan-Based Terror Groups,” America.Gov, November 4, 2010, 34 33 “How to Set Syria Free,” The Economist, February 11, 2012. < The Economist, February to Set Syria Free,” “How Iran, Al Links Between “ New Pincus, Dan, and Walter Eggen, 33 http://www.economist.com/node/21547243> 34 15. 1-3. See footnote Qaeda Cited,” pp. demning al-Assad or instituting sanctions. instituting or al-Assad demning a will- also articulated administration The Bush with full military attack, to preemptively ingness or suspected of aiding states that it rogue force, Iraq the rogue state of Indeed, abetting terrorists. based on the toppled was under Saddam Hussein false) that Saddam to be found presumption (later with working and was WMDs Hussein possessed has been however, preemption, Such al-Qaeda. is ad hoc manner at times and applied in a rather re- the amount of resources it unsustainable given purportedly rogue states with example, For quires. so Iran—have similar links to al-Qaeda—namely action, far not been subject to similar preemptive in the near future. though this might change Weak states require different interventions than states require different interventions Weak the United States’ states, weak With strong states. should often begin with capacity build- effort development The United States provides ing. states that cooperate weak assistance and aid for The United in the fight against terrorist groups. use of military-civilian States has made extensive Reconstruction groups called Provincial hybrid and electric- water, roads, to develop (PRT) Teams The central Afghanistan and Iraq. ity throughout as articulated by logic behind these initiatives, - Advi the Deputy National Security Brennan, John Counterterrorism and Homeland Secu- sor for needs of vulnerable the for is that providing rity, them less beholden to states makes people in weak . the United States’ the United States’ 30 Although rifts between Presi- Although rifts between 32 The Evolving Terrorist Threat The Terrorist Evolving These sanctions have affected Iran These sanctions have 31 When dealing with rogue states, the United the United When dealing with rogue states, “Sanctions and Iran: Beleaguered But Still Unbowed,” The Econ- But Still Unbowed,” “Sanctions and Iran: Beleaguered Bush, George W., “Address to a Joint Session of to a Joint “Address Congress and Bush, George W., 21 See footnote “UN Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee Overview”. 32 21, 2012. < http://www.economist.com/node/21543157> omist, January 30 the American People”. See footnote 2. See footnote the American People”. 31 that oppose the United States, that oppose the states that support the United States and states the United States and states states that support tration established a very clear dichotomy between between clear dichotomy a very tration established - the Bush adminis Though emerged. have as they responded to individual threats from state actors threats from state to individual responded complications has been that the United States has States the United that has been complications block any UN Security Council resolution con- any block because Russia and China remain determined to has done little good in Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, Syria, has done little good in Bashar al-Assad’s Similarly, it seems that the threat of sanctions Similarly, and Russia refuses to support further sanctions. and Russia refuses to support further sanctions. at all costs at the time of publication of this article remains determined to pursue nuclear weapons remains determined to pursue nuclear weapons may be burdening Iran’s political leadership, Iran political leadership, be burdening Iran’s may late 2010 suggest that formerly instituted sanctions instituted sanctions late 2010 suggest that formerly dent Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah Khamenei in Khamenei Ayatollah Ahmadinejad and the dent terrorism. crippling financial sanctions on state sponsors of crippling financial sanctions on States and the United Nations have implemented States and the United Nations have of dealing with strong state actors. of dealing with strong around the world change—particularly in the case in the change—particularly around the world intensive review and revision as circumstances as circumstances and revision review intensive foreign relations are far more complex and merit and merit relations are far more complex foreign nuclear ambitions. embargo on all oil from Iran in order to halt its embargo on all oil from Iran in followed the United States’ lead in placing an lead in States’ the United followed goals. For example, the European Union recently the European Union example, For goals. significant promise in accomplishing their policy significant promise in accomplishing and Syria particularly harshly but have not shown not shown have and Syria particularly harshly but 42 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis the influence of terrorist groups.35 Unfortunately, to the relatively recent threat of “homegrown” ter- despite the best US intentions, only a fraction of rorists originating in strong states. It often reacts this money actually supports development; much to such threats as they emerge, given the unique of the aid is absorbed by corrupt politicians in circumstances involved in each case and the lack countries like Afghanistan and Yemen. of previous experience in confronting this danger. The United States has sought to train weak gov- Here, the United States has primarily employed ernments’ police, intelligence, and military forces intelligence sharing. Strong states share a strate- to conduct operations against terrorists. In Yemen gic interest in eliminating terrorist threats within and Somalia, for example, the United States has their borders. As a result, sharing operational deployed military and intelligence assets to assist intelligence on a terrorist threat within a strong local governments in fighting terrorism within state often results in an immediate and effective their borders.36 Yet, such initiatives often have the response to the threat. Yet, the degree of intel- detrimental effect of fueling other sectarian con- ligence cooperation has historically varied widely flicts and thereby exacerbating the terrorist threat. based on bilateral cooperation on other foreign For example, aiding the Pakistani military could policy objectives, democratization, and other fac- inadvertently sustain Pakistan’s conflict with India tors tangential to strategic interest in countering and further destabilize the region. terrorism.37 In some cases, the United States has also It is important to note that the categoriza- sought to share intelligence with weak govern- tions of “strong”, “weak”, and “rogue” states are ments to encourage government responses to imperfect and do not encapsulate the complexities indigenous terrorist groups such as in Pakistan. of all countries’ political situations. The ongo- However, this strategy is often ineffective, given ing Arab Spring movement further illustrates this that a weak government does not often have complexity. In reality, many states constantly shift the capability to tactfully act on the intelligence between these categories and embody characteris- provided. In fact, this strategy can even have a tics that cut across different state types. The wave detrimental impact if there are elements within of “Arab Spring” uprisings throughout the Middle the indigenous government that are sympathetic East has seen Egypt, for example, transition from towards the terrorists’ cause. a strong military state with deep ties to the United While weak states pose serious challenges, the States to one with some rogue features that has United States has faced difficulties in responding demonstrated willingness to thwart US interests.38 35 Brennan, John, “A New Approach for Safeguarding Americans,” 37 Walsh, James Ingoe, The International Politics of Intelligence Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, DC: Federal Sharing, p. 17. News Service, 2009). < http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/ 38 “Egypt PM: Aid Cutoff Threats Won’t Deter NGO Case,” remarks-john-brennan-center-strategic-and-international-studies> Voice of America, February 8, 2012, 41 Most recently, Most recently, 43 Examples include recently 42 Since 9/11 the United States has sought Since 9/11 the United States has 40 Temple-Raston, Dina, “Arrest Made In Alleged D.C. Subway Subway Made In Alleged D.C. Dina, “Arrest Temple-Raston, The main reason to suspect that these The main reason Thomas, Pierre, Richard Esposito, Jack Date, and Jack Cloherty, Cloherty, and Jack Date, Jack Pierre, Richard Esposito, Thomas, Chalk et al., “Threats in Terrorism,” p. 19. See footnote 9. 19. See footnote p. in Terrorism,” Chalk et al., “Threats 19. Ibid., p. Bombing Plot,” National Public Radio, October 27, 2010, such transitions. such Current Strategy formulate an overarching strategy to respond to strategy to an overarching formulate Consequences of the Unintended tion, but the United States will likely soon have to soon have likely United States will but the tion, will affect counterterrorism planning and coopera - planning and counterterrorism will affect It remains to be seen how these transformations transformations these how be seen to It remains tion. Most tellingly, efforts to combat network and and network to combat efforts Most tellingly, tion. actors, to the detriment of sound threat mitiga- actors, States responses toward network and peripheral network States responses toward and warrant similar risk mitigation skews United similar risk mitigation skews and warrant pects of al-Qaeda pose approximately equal threats pects of al-Qaeda pose approximately state actors. The prevailing perception that all as- The prevailing state actors. lacks a unified strategic framework to deal with a unified strategic framework lacks fighting the core. Furthermore, the United States Furthermore, fighting the core. work and peripheral actors than it has been with and peripheral actors than it has been with work priate solution to deal with newly empowered net- empowered priate solution to deal with newly States has been less capable of finding an appro- States has been less capable of of neutralizing the threat altogether. The United of neutralizing the threat altogether. have shifted the threat away from the core instead shifted the threat away have recent months suggests that the War on Terror may may Terror on War recent months suggests that the ever, the proliferation of lower profile attacks in profile attacks the proliferation of lower ever, 44 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis in 2012, a Moroccan individual who mistakenly measures.48 believed that he was working with al-Qaeda was Besides financial considerations, some legal arrested for plotting to detonate a bomb in the US experts have raised concerns that Americans may Capitol.44 be facing significant costs regarding civil liberties. The threat of attack on such “soft targets” To begin with, privacy issues may arise. Airline can generate considerable and unnecessary costs passengers must go through scanners that cre- that the current administration is seeking to re- ate images of travelers that resemble fuzzy photo duce. A pillar of al-Qaeda’s strategy is to provoke negatives or chalk etchings and reveal the person’s the United States to increase security levels—at silhouette, including genitalia outlines.49 The only great cost—and thereby inflict financial burden alternative is to have a comprehensive pat down. on the country. Even unsuccessful attacks are Some critics claim that these policies may be too deemed victories for al-Qaeda if they cause the invasive and unnecessary to accomplish the goals United States to further increase security and involved.50 There have also been allegations of hu- incur the accompanying costs. Al-Qaeda’s strategy man rights abuses. In the early days of the War on would indeed seem to be working. As previously Terror, a new type of rendition emerged that was mentioned, in reaction to the failed Christmas Day distinct from traditional transfers of people across bomb plot in 2009, the United States is install- legal jurisdiction (e.g., deportation and extradition) ing full body scanners at domestic airports at a in its aim to extract intelligence from detainees. cost of $2.4 billion.45 Such scanners take longer Human rights groups have alleged that, in some to process passengers than standard magnetom- instances, rendered individuals were tortured eters, resulting in longer wait times and burden upon transfer.51 Regardless, the United States has to airlines and passengers.46 The Obama admin- since implemented protections and safeguards to istration has recently indicated “the Department prevent detainees transferred to other countries [of Defense] must continue to reduce the “cost of from being tortured.52 doing business.”47 In an age of austerity, an age in which defense planners view the nation’s deficit as the eminent national security threat, the United States must avoid costly and superfluous security 48 Ibid., p. 1. 49 United States Government Accountability Office, “Aviation Secu- 44 Horwitz, Sari, William Wan, and Del Quentin Wilber, “Federal rity: TSA Is Increasing Procurement of the Advanced Imaging Technology agents arrest Amine El Khalifi; he allegedly planned to bomb Capitol,” The ” [report], (Washington, D.C., 2010). New Strategies New 46 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis Doing so overrepresents al-Qaeda’s influence and organization’s efficacy and leadership succession.60 helps al-Qaeda mobilize support. Therefore, the United States should continue The United States should also be extremely targeted killings but limit their use specifically careful when targeting killings of key leaders, via to high-risk threats that offer the opportunity to drone strikes or other special operations meth- simultaneously eliminate large portions of the ods. The United States has significantly increased leadership of sections or units as opposed to just drone strikes against terrorists along the Afghan- individuals. istan-Pakistan border. Drone strikes have killed In dealing with the network, the United hundred of militants, including several important States should begin limited peace talks. For al-Qaeda leaders. Yet drone strikes also shift risk, example, the United States may be able to offer as many militants relocate to safer locations in resources devoted to education and reintegration Somalia or Yemen.56 Even successful operations into society to insurgents that agree to give up may result in limited benefits because Zawahiri no their arms and permanently renounce violence. longer has a “formative impact” on the operational The United States should not negotiate with al- Qaeda’s central leadership; however, it should be integrity of the next generation of al-Qaeda’s lead- willing to consider the possibility of granting lim- ers in the same way that bin Laden once did. Per- ited concessions to specific local affiliated network ceived assassination may also galvanize their image groups that offer desirable terms and do not pose as martyrs or empower more extreme successors.57 a danger to the United States. Discussions of this Critics are right to point out that killing al-Qaeda’s nature should specifically include an “exit strategy” top leaders will not end al-Qaeda.58 to current terrorists that limits punishment, when These critics also raise complex civil lib- not harmful and expedient, in exchange for coop- erties questions, such as the legitimacy of killing eration.61 American citizens that have joined al-Qaeda (e.g., When confronting the network, it is also Anwar Al-Awlaki) without due process. Drone crucial to be more discerning and prudent in strikes have also had an estimated 31 percent civil- funding allocation dedicated to counterterrorism. ian fatality rate, potentially radicalizing Pakistani The United States must be careful to not waste and Afghan moderates.59 However, past experience resources fighting enemies who claim affiliation shows that simultaneously killing many important with al-Qaeda but share none of its aims to harm al-Qaeda leaders has devastating effects on the the United States. For example, the Moro Islamic 56 Bergen, Peter, and Bruce Hoffman, “Assessing the Terrorist Liberation Front is a parochial insurgency com- Threat,” p. 21. See footnote 15. 57 Cronin, Audrey Kurth, “How Terrorism Ends,” p. 179. See foot- note 8. 60 Yoo, John, War by Other Means: an Insider’s Account of the War 58 Ibid., p. 179. on Terror (New York: Atlantic Monthly, 2006), p. 57. 59 Bergen, Peter and Katherine Tiedemann, “The Drone War,” pp. 61 Cronin, Audrey Kurth, “How Terrorism Ends,” p. 186. See foot- 1-2. See footnote 23. note 8. 47 The Evolving Threat: Adapting United States’ Counter-Terrorism Strategy Frederick S. Shultz The United States should also care- 65 In domestic operations, the United States the In domestic operations, The United States must continue to take a The United States must continue to take Solove, Daniel J., “Data Mining and the Security Liberty Debate,” Mining and the Security Liberty Debate,” “Data Daniel J., Solove, 65 ofUniversity 359. (2008), p. Review Law Chicago the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Intelligence, National of of the Director the Office It Homeland Security. Department of and the and local governments integrate state should also that are agencies enforcement federal law with the of the National congregated in the form already Force. Task Terrorism Joint careful to protect individu- must be especially must thoroughly The United States privacy. als’ only lawful domestic terrorists using investigate claims jihadists’ (a) validating to avoid: channels could which oppressiveness of US government ef- “chilling (b) Westerners, potentially radicalize (c) behaviors, Amendment-protected First on fects” government consequences of predictive negative trust in Americans’ and (d) erosion of judgments, institutions. - surveil fully analyze some of its most controversial whether their goals can lance programs to evaluate Such measures. less invasive through be achieved security letters programs include FBI national organizations to relinquish (subpoena letters for and data mining. records without warrant) private Though the FBI has since limited the use of gag CIA, the FBI, orders in national security letters, still obtain data and Department of Defense may and records about individuals with no probably cause or judicial oversight. using intelligence to assess by approach proactive - howev vulnerabilities and increase preparedness; risk management strategy must recognize that it er, - Such Such 62 To com- To Accordingly, the United States Accordingly, 63 The Evolving Terrorist Threat The Terrorist Evolving Finally, the United States must improve its United States must improve the Finally, Huang, Reko, “In the Spotlight: Moro Islamic Liberation Front,” Front,” Islamic Liberation “In the Spotlight: Moro Reko, Huang, 184. Ibid., p. Al Qa Cruickshank, Unraveling: “The and Paul Bergen, Peter, Polls reveal an increasingly hostile attitude reveal Polls 64 ment and radicalization of US residents. and given responsibility for curtailing the recruit- responsibility for and given tional Security Branch, which was created in 2005, created in 2005, was which tional Security Branch, The United States must strengthen the FBI’s Na- The United States must strengthen the FBI’s should begin with thwarting domestic terrorism. domestic terrorism. should begin with thwarting security policy dealing with the periphery. This periphery. security policy dealing with the of the future, to the Muslim community. of the future, baseless target choice and lack of a positive vision of a positive and lack baseless target choice must highlight their flaws, which include their which must highlight their flaws, defeat network terrorist actors, the United States terrorist actors, defeat network cide bombings throughout the Muslim world. To To world. cide bombings throughout the Muslim - and against sui both against terrorists themselves 62 Center for Defense Information, February 15, 2002, is not possible to prevent every attack. Therefore, If we respond with fear, we allow violent extrem- the United States should incorporate resilience ists to succeed far beyond the initial impact of and population hardening into its counterterror- their attacks, or attempted attacks—altering our ism posture. The United States, at times, forms its society and enlarging the standing of [al-Qaeda] security policies by reacting to attempted attacks. and its terrorist affiliates far beyond its actual Implementing full body scanners, at great fiscal reach. Similarly, overreacting in a way that creates and social cost, in response to a peripheral threat fissures between America and certain regions or (as opposed to a true core threat) of the “under- religions will undercut our leadership and make wear bomber” is one example of such reactionary us less safe.67 policy. Jihadists succeed when American overreac- Unfortunately, actually carrying out this tions to even unsuccessful terrorist attacks create goal has proven far more difficult than simply panic-induced political and economic hardship.66 communicating it, and there is still significant Consequence prevention strategies decrease the room for progress to be made. The benefits are harm of terrorist attacks, functioning effectively so significant, that a stronger effort must be made, when attacked without warning. Strategies in- however, as implementing resilience measures pay clude bomb-proofing cargo holds, modifying air- dividends in terrorist prevention as well; if the im- craft ventilation to reduce chemical or biological pact of a terrorist attack diminishes, terrorists have agent damage, and enhancing emergency response a lower incentive to conduct attacks.68 preparedness in collaboration with the Federal State Actors Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and local The United States should establish a emergency responders. framework for addressing different types of state The United States must also psychologi- threats. The framework must allow the govern- cally prepare citizens to withstand attacks. Though ment leeway to address different types of states, politically challenging, the administration should but it also must provide consistency in order to continue to refrain from publicly denying all risk avoid accusations of bias and to establish a deter- of attack and begin to teach the public how to rence effect to potential challengers. Generally, respond constructively if the United States is at- the United States should take preventive action tacked. The government must demonstrate effec- against rogue states if there is a clear and present tive emergency preparedness plans. The Obama danger that they might harm the United States. administration has done a respectable job of ar- Such action could include a military invasion in ticulating the importance of this objective, stating in the 2010 National Security Strategy: 67 Obama, Barack, 2010 National Security Strategy, p. 22. See foot- note 3. 68 Jackson, Brian, “Marrying Prevention and Resiliency – Balanc- 66 Bergen, Peter, and Bruce Hoffman, “Assessing the Terrorist ing Approaches to an Uncertain Terrorist Threat,” RAND (2008), p.10. < Threat,” p. 1. See footnote 15. http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2008/RAND_OP236.pdf> 49 The Evolving Threat: Adapting United States’ Counter-Terrorism Strategy Frederick S. Shultz The 71 These pro- 72 and to define the threat as “violent and to define the threat as 70 In dealing with weak states, on the other states, weak In dealing with Obama, Barack, “Remarks by the President on a New Beginning” the President on a New by Obama, Barack, “Remarks in the Countering Terrorism “Rhetoric and Reality: Marc, Lynch, Safeguarding Americans” Approach for New “A Brennan, John, 70 Egypt: Cairo, [speech], Office of June (Cairo University, the Press Secretary, 4, 2009). 71 Age of American a New Center for D.C.: Obama” [report], (Washington, 3. 2010), p. Security, 72 more readily and indiscriminately than is prudent. is prudent. than and indiscriminately readily more - US prec follow may other countries Moreover, - States correspond target the United edent and should therefore administration The Obama ingly. United States while the that, publicly acknowledge - military ac the right to use preventive reserves when such it will be prudent in determining tion, and will seek congressional action is justifiable at all possible. when approval primary strategy should The United States’ hand, - The prevail further radicalization. be to prevent should continue to advocate ing counter-narrative the United States and beginning between “a new interest and mu- based on mutual . . Muslims . tual respect” extremism” as opposed to “radical Islam.” as opposed to extremism” United States should promote its image as the United States should promote its and accepting country that it has always diverse destination been and will continue to be—the This one million immigrants annually. of over that al-Qaeda promotes, counters the narrative is that the United States opposes the Islam which faith and uses military action to specifically target When Muslim states and civilian populations. basic services cannot provide governments weak healthcare and education to their populations, like civilians the United States has done so to prevent aid. from turning to terrorists for - This consequence is de- 69 The Evolving Terrorist Threat The Terrorist Evolving To begin with, the United States should begin with, To Obama, Barack, 2010 National Security Strategy, p. 22. See foot p. Strategy, Security Obama, Barack, 2010 National United States may bind itself to military action bind United States may is problematic as currently articulated because the sirable; however, the principle of preventive action the principle of preventive however, sirable; enemies more credible. continues to make threats to the United States’ threats to the United States’ continues to make necessary to defend our nation and our interests” necessary to defend our nation and our interests” States must reserve the right to act unilaterally if States must reserve Obama’s continued insistence that “the United continued insistence that Obama’s sought to distance itself from parts of this policy, sought to distance itself from parts of this policy, is not necessary. Though the United States has Though the United States is not necessary. WMDs—the existence of an “imminent threat” “imminent threat” of an WMDs—the existence lateral force to prevent terrorists from acquiring to prevent lateral force declared that the United States would use uni- would declared that the United States these states. The 2002 National Security Strategy these states. States requires an aggressive solution to deal with solution to deal with States requires an aggressive willing to take risks than most states. The United risks than most states. willing to take 69 state terrorism supporters because they are more they state terrorism supporters because preventive action. It is difficult to deter rogue It is difficult to action. preventive note 3. confront rogue states by making prudent use of confront rogue states by vention with risk internalization. with risk internalization. vention - pre sharing and a combination of cost-effective the War on Terror. Doing so requires intelligence Doing so requires intelligence Terror. on War the states, particularly democracies, its closest allies in its closest particularly democracies, states, ing. The United States must also make strong must also make The United States ing. - associated threats from elevat methods to prevent should prevent radicalization and apply targeted radicalization and apply targeted should prevent usually not appropriate. Instead, the United States Instead, usually not appropriate. nature, though a full scale military intervention is military intervention a full scale though nature, preempt them only if they elevate drastically in drastically elevate them only if they preempt should monitor threats from weak states and states from weak threats should monitor the most extreme cases only. The United States United States The only. cases extreme the most 50 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis grams are essential for preventing radicalization in In contrast to dealing with strong states, weak states. with which the United States has had a long his- On the other hand, the United States must tory of interacting, dealing with transitory states pursue a different campaign in strong states. To poses a more recent and more novel problem that begin with, the United States should endeavor to requires a delicate response based on developing a stop the spread of terrorist propaganda. Specifi- strong counter-narrative. United States approach- cally in oppressive states, the United States should es to states in transition require special consid- apply diplomatic and political pressure to oblige eration for counterterrorism planning. Political countries that host terrorist propaganda dissemi- strongmen such as Muammar al-Gaddafi of Libya nation networks to force networks to cease those and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen attempted to operations. frame popular demonstrations in the Arab Spring Within strong states, the United States uprisings throughout the Middle East as Western- should also make better use of intelligence gather- inspired provocations. It would seem, for now, ing and sharing. Significant barriers to informa- that popular demonstrations have not included tion sharing remain within the United States and demonstrations against the United States—with with allies. The White House’s review concluded the exception of some growing US resentment in that the Christmas Day bomb plot could have Egypt—yet, there is the danger that such a nar- been prevented at an earlier stage with more inte- rative could ultimately proliferate, increasing grated intelligence.73 Additionally, it is important radicalization and support for terrorist organiza- to always allow for the possibility of innovation tions. The United States should avoid creating the in strong states. Restrictive immigration and visa perception that it is the driving force behind state policies have made it difficult for professionals to transitions or domestic unrest and should be espe- enter Western nations. United States restrictions cially watchful of how counterterrorism action may on Pentagon research contracts have prevented be framed as interventionism by political entrepre- neurs in furtherance of their parochial ends. some of the brightest individuals of other nation- Transnational Actors—State Synergy alities from doing state-of-the-art work in critical There is perhaps no graver threat to United United States security areas.74 The United States States security than a WMD in the possession of and other Western nations must establish expedit- a terrorist group. There are two primary ways in ed visa processes for low-threat, high-importance which this could occur. The first is through alli- visitors. ances that form between rogue states and transna- 73 Bergen, Peter, and Bruce Hoffman, “Assessing the Terrorist tional actors—generally established by the political Threat,” p. 9. See footnote 15. 74 Friedman, Thomas L., “America’s DNA” [editorial], The leaders of states and the core of terrorist organiza- New York Times, June 1, 2005, Suicide attacks in Pakistan have risen Understanding Suicide sharply since July 2007. Pakistan experiences Terrorism the highest rate of suicide attacks after Iraq and Afghanistan.76 The networks and training infra- A case study of Pakistan structures of suicide bombers in Pakistan pose a By Khuram Iqbal real security threat not only to Pakistan, but also impact its neighbours and beyond. Human bombs Introduction recruited and trained by Pakistani-Taliban fac- The first decade of 21st century witnessed a tions are also sent to Afghanistan to target Ameri- phenomenal increase in religiously and politically can and NATO forces stationed in the country. In motivated violence on a global level. International January 2008, a Taliban commander stated on con- intervention in Afghanistan (October 2001) and dition of anonymity that the Pakistani Taliban sent the invasion of Iraq (March 2003) further aggra- more than 140 trained suicide assassins to Afghan- vated the threat, which continues to spill-over to istan between 2006 and 2008.77 The practice soon conflict zones in the Middle East, South Asia, and spread to sectarian conflict in Iran where a group other parts of the world. Terrorist outfits are not called Jundullah78 carried out and claimed the only expanding their outreach but also influenc- first ever vehicle-born suicide attack inside Iran ing each other in many ways. Be it their ideological in December 2008.79 Investigations into the attack twists or operational tactics, militant organiza- showed that Jundulla-Iran was either supported or tions are aptly exchanging ideas and resorting to at least influenced by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi80 to resort more lethal ways to destabilize the apparatus of to the use of human bombs.81 states. For instance, the tactic of suicide bomb- The emergence and evolution of suicide ings was unheard of in Pakistan until the arrival of terrorism in Pakistan indicates that there is an Al-Qaeda in the region, and the dissemination of abundance of people willing to die in order to its violent/militant ideology helped radicalize the predominantly-Pashtun Taliban militants on both 76 Khuram Iqbal, ‘Drivers of Suicide Terrorism in Pakistan’, RSIS Commentaries, February 27, 2008, www.pvtr.org/pdf/commentaries/ sides of the Pak-Afghan border.75 Consequently, RSIS0212008.pdf, last visited December 24, 2008. 77 Abdul Hai Kakar, BBC Urdu, January 10 2008, www.bbc.co.uk/ suicide missions became one of the most frequent- urdu/story/2008/01/printable/080110_bombers_suicide_rza, last visited February 27, 2008. ly used tactics by terrorist groups operating in the 78 Jundullah-Iran is a militant organization consisted largely of Sunni tribes residing on the Pakista-Iran border. The organization is waging an armed struggle for socio-political empowerment of minority Sunni sect in region. Iran. 79 Nazila Fathi, “Rare Suicide Bombing in Iran Kills 4” New York Times, December 29, 2008, at A7. 75 The first ever suicide attack on the soil of Pakistan was car- 80 Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is known to be the deadliest Urban terrorist ried out by Al-Qaeda on November 25, 1995, at the Egyptian Embassy in outfit in Pakistan. The group, formed in 1996 to counter increasing influence Islamabad. Similarly, the global terrorist outfit also perpetrated the first ever of Iran-backed Shias in Pakistan, vows to turn the country into a Sunni- suicide attack in Afghanistan on September 9, 2001, when an Arab assassin theological state disguised as a journalist blew himself up and killed veteran Afghan-Tajik 81 Khuram Iqbal, ‘And Now the Female Bombers’ Weekly Pulse, leader, Ahmad Shah Masood Islamabad, January 14, 2011., pp. 13. 53 Understanding Suicide Terrorism Khuram Iqbal - - . - 87 For meaningful research, it is imperative imperative it is meaningful research, For Adam Dolnik, “Die and Let Die: Exploring Links between Sui Adam Dolnik, “Die and Let Die: Exploring Links between 87 Use of and Terrorist cide Terrorism and Radiological, Chemical, Biological, 35 17 (2003), pp. & Terrorism Studies in Conflict Nuclear Weapons”, Working Definition Working What constitutes a to define suicide terrorism. differ are suicide attacks How suicide attack? Adam Dolnik, of attack? ent from other forms of Professor of Security Studies at the University as defines suicide attacks Australia, Wollongong, premeditated act of ideologically or religiously “A the success of the in which violence, motivated by operation is contingent on self-inflicted death the perpetrator(s) during the attack” atic description of this phenomenon and cross- phenomenon of this description atic parts from other hypotheses the existing testing of revising in testing or will contribute of the world - preven the causes and theories on the existing aims will The research tion of suicide terrorism. an in-depth single-case conducting by be achieved - emergence and the evolu on the research study This process in Pakistan. tion of suicide terrorism theories, of existing examination will start with the either supports or refutes the collecting data that further revisions theories and then determining if incorpo- the investigation In short, are required. variables (1) identify the existing phases: rates two identified (2) testing the variables on the subject; contrasting suicide terrorist campaigns in other by (3) deter and; Pakistan, conflict zones to cases in align with those variables mining to what extent in Pakistan. suicide attacks 85 - ; (3) ; 83 (4) absolute or relative deprivation; (4) absolute or relative 84 Unlike the case studies of Palestine, the case studies of Palestine, Unlike 86 The study intends to develop a better intends to develop The study Anne Speckhard and Khapta Ahkmedova, “The Making of Anne Speckhard and Khapta Ahkmedova, a Robert A. Pape and James K Feldman Cutting the Fuse: The K Feldman and James A. Pape Robert of Scott Atran, and Growth “The Moral Logic - Suicide Terror Riaz Hassan, “Global Rise of An Overview”, Suicide Terrorism: refers to longstanding poverty Whereas deprivation absolute ; (2) Islamist fundamentalism or Salafism (2) Islamist ; Understanding Understanding Terrorism Suicide 82 through empirical research and analysis. A system- and analysis. through empirical research understanding of suicide terrorism in Pakistan in Pakistan understanding of suicide terrorism religiously motivated violence—suicide attacks. violence—suicide attacks. religiously motivated of the most brutal forms of social, political and of social, of the most brutal forms explain the emergence and the evolution of one the emergence and the evolution explain determining if the existing theories sufficiently theories sufficiently determining if the existing tested. The proposed study aims to fill this gap by aims to fill this gap The proposed study tested. The above-mentioned hypotheses have yet to be yet have hypotheses The above-mentioned in Pakistan has yet to be systematically studied. studied. to be systematically has yet in Pakistan Iraq and Sri Lanka, the case of suicide terrorism Iraq and Sri Lanka, portunities relative to expectations, thus generating frustrations that radical frustrations that thus generating to expectations, portunities relative can exploit. See Scott Atran, “Mishandling Suicide Terrorism” organizations 67-90. pp. Quarterly 3, (Summer 2004), The Washington 86 5 & Terrorism Studies in Conflict Martyr: Chechen Suicide Terrorism” 429-492. (2006), pp. 82 Explosion of The to Stop it (Chicago: and How Global Suicide Terrorism ofUniversity Dying to Win: A. Pape, 21-23; Robert 2010) pp. Press, Chicago of Logic The Strategic 2005); House, Random York: (New Suicide Terrorism 44; M Abdel-Khalek Ahmed “Neither Altruistic nor Terrorism Suicide, pp. of (2004) 8: 1 Archives Martyrdom:but A Muslim Perspective” Suicide 99-113. pp. Research 83 127–147. 2, (Spring 2006), pp. Quarterly ism,” The Washington 84 ofAsian Journal “What’s LA O’Rourke, Social Sciences 36 (2008), 271-29; 681- Security Studies 4 (2009), pp. Suicide Terrorism?”, Female Special about 718 85 when as a situation deprivation Atranand unemployment, defines relative and social trends produce diminishing op political, economic, converging tion five tenets: (1) nationalism or resistance to occupa- (1) nationalism tenets: five behind suicide terror may be roughly divided into be roughly divided may behind suicide terror of the existing literature on the subject, the factors subject, literature on the of the existing suicide terrorism in a systematic manner. In view In view in a systematic manner. suicide terrorism and the socio-political and physiological effects of effects physiological socio-political and and the been conducted thus far to explain the genesis the to explain thus far been conducted plains this phenomenon? Numerous studies have have Numerous studies phenomenon? plains this - What ex recruiters. their by set the goals pursue (5) revenge. effectiveness; 54 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis In light of Dolnik’s discussion of problems the security forces, political leadership and civil- in defining suicide terrorism, a clear distinction ians. will be made between acts of suicide in which the Al-Qaeda is the first group to introduce terrorist killed himself, and those in which the sui- suicide bombings in Pakistan in 1995; however, a cide was part of an act of killing others. Therefore, number of Pakistani clerics argue the acts of self- cases in which the attacker shot hostages and then inflicted killing were introduced in Pakistan long killed himself88 will not be included. In the case before the formation and arrival of Al-Qaeda by 90 of Pakistan, a mixture of civilians and political- the Pakistan Army in the 1965 war against India. military actors has been targeted by such modus According to these claims, during the second war operandi. Terms such as “suicide missions” “sui- with India, Field Martial Ayub Khan, also the then President of Pakistan, ordered his soldiers to cide attacks” “suicide bombings” and “suicide ter- lay in front of the 500 Indian tanks advancing on rorism” will be used interchangeably to describe Lahore with anti-tank mines tied to their chests as the subject of study. there was no other way of stopping them.91 Refut- ing such claims, a retired Pakistani officer clarified History of Suicide Terrorism in “No soldier was ever ordered by anyone to lay in Pakistan front of any tank with a mine tied to his body. In fact, in any army no one can order anyone to die in 92 “The method of martyrdom operations is the most that manner or in any other manner.” successful way of inflicting damage against the The stories mentioning Pakistani soldiers opponent and the least costly to the mujahideen lying in front of the enemy tanks with mines on in casualties.” Ayman Al-Zawahiri(Al-Qaeda’s Top their chests are common in Pakistan and perhaps Leaders)89 aimed at glorify Pakistani soldiers fighting against their arch rival India. According to the Army Following the US led war on terror, Paki- circles, “in the aftermath of Pak-India war in 1965, stani society witnessed a new wave of social, politi- the army was adulated by the nation and all sorts cal and religiously motivated violence in the form of stories real and imaginary extolling its valour of escalated suicide terrorism. The human bombs were doing the rounds.”93 Nonetheless, there is no of various inter-linked terrorist outfits pushed the evidence to validate such claims. country into mayhem, indiscriminately targeting 90 ‘Islamic suicide bombings not a recent phenomenon, as once thought?’ Jihad Watch, http://www.jihadwatch.org/2008/07/islamic-sui- 88 Gunaratna describes such incidents as “no-surrender attacks”. See cide-bombings-not-a-recent-phenomenon-as-once-thought.html, last visited for example Rohan Gunaratna, “Global Threat Assessment 2009” RSIS Com- May 03, 2011. mentaries, December 30 2008, www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/ 91 Ibid. RSIS1382008.pdf, last visited May 01, 2011. 92 Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd), “Suicide Bombings and Islam”, Pak Tri- 89 Knights Under the Prophet’s Banner, serialized in Al-Sharq Al- bune, July 23, 2008, www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?20361, last Awsat (London), December 2–10, 2001, trans. Foreign Broadcast Information visited May 03, 2011. Service, FBIS-NES-2001-1202. 93 Ibid. 55 Understanding Suicide Terrorism Khuram Iqbal - , last visited June 28, 2008. , last visited June 98 Soon after the bombing, the the Soon after the bombing, 97 Various evidences substanti- evidences Various 96 11995embassybombing In accordance with the definition of suicide definition of suicide with the In accordance Since November 1995, Al-Qaeda, in col- Al-Qaeda, 1995, Since November McGirk, Tim, “Bomb kills 14 at Egypt’s McGirk, Tim, “Bomb kills 14 at embassy” The Indepen - ‘Context of 19, 1995: Islamic Jihad Attacks Egyptian November March Online, divided”, CBC News A family Family: “Al-Qaeda visited April 22, 2011 96 A1. 20, 1995, p. dent, November 97 www.cooperativeresearch.org/context.jsp?item=a1119 Embassy in Pakistan’, 95embassybombing#a1 98 last 03, 2004, www.cbc.ca/news/background/khadr/alqaedafamily2.html, 12, 2008. visited June actual cause of Roomi’s death. death. of Roomi’s cause actual attack such ever the first in this study, terrorism on Al-Qaeda out by carried soil was on Pakistani filled truck a pickup when 1995, 25, November - rammed into the gate at the Egyp with explosives people and killing 15 Islamabad, tian Embassy in injuring 59 others. Pakistani authorities arrested Ahmed Said Khadr Ahmed Said arrested authorities Pakistani Khadr in the attack. on suspicion of involvement members and the key one of the founding was Al-Qaeda. financer of ate the involvement of the global terrorist outfit in of the global terrorist outfit ate the involvement - the bomb for the funds instance, For this attack. second Al-Qaeda’s raised by ing operation were on a fundraising al-Zawahiri, Ayman in command, pretending to where he was trip to the US in 1993, refu- for raising money a charity be a doctor for gees in Afghanistan. frequently Jihadi groups, laboration with Pakistani strategic goals and to achieve use suicide attacks The second eliminate desired targets in Pakistan. directly Al-Qaeda was in which suicide attack The attack took place in December 2003. involved Per President, former targeted at Pakistan’s was in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. Musharraf, vez the chief al-Libbi, Abu Faraj Reports claimed that There are 94 There are no accounts to determine the The idea that Al-Qaeda was the first group first group the was Al-Qaeda idea that The Muhammad Amir Rana, “How the Suicide Attackers Operate in Operate the Suicide Attackers “How Muhammad Amir Rana, Salafi. ur Rahman Jameel Discussion Board on Shaykh Islam Life. 95 Understanding Understanding Terrorism Suicide 94 Pakistan” (2007) Pakistan Institute of (2007) Pakistan Pakistan” Pakistan, Islamabad, Studies, Peace http://san-pips.com/download.php?f=pvt0002. Online 04,2007. version, May 03, 2011 pdf, last visited May 95 last www.islamlife.com/religion2/forum?func=view&catid=16&id=1844, also shoot himself at [sic] the spot .” also shoot himself at [sic] the spot Gulbadin Hikmatyar’s party Hizb-e-Islami. He did party Hizb-e-Islami. Gulbadin Hikmatyar’s The Arab assassin, Abdullah Roomi, belonged to belonged to Roomi, Abdullah Arab assassin, The in his camp in Chamarkand by an Arab Mujahid. Arab Mujahid. an in his camp in Chamarkand by leader, Sheikh Jameelur Rehman was assassinated Rehman was Sheikh Jameelur leader, Tribal Areas (FATA) in 1987, when an Afghan jihad when an in 1987, Areas (FATA) Tribal in Bajaur Agency of Federally Administrated Agency of Federally in Bajaur cording to Rana, “The first suicide attack occurred suicide attack “The first cording to Rana, (one year prior to the formation of Al-Qaeda). Ac- Al-Qaeda). of prior to the formation (one year suicide bombing in Pakistan dates back to 1987 back dates in Pakistan suicide bombing perts Zaidi and Rana, who claim that the first ever ever that the first who claim and Rana, perts Zaidi - ex Counter-Terrorism Pakistani two by contested to introduce suicide bombings in Pakistan is also in Pakistan suicide bombings to introduce killed. shot the Sheikh many times before he himself was he himself was times before shot the Sheikh many arms. Sh. Jameel hugged the assassin, who then hugged the assassin, Jameel Sh. arms. who had the habit of welcoming Arabs with open who had the habit of welcoming claimed that the assassin went to visit Sh. Jameel, Jameel, to visit Sh. claimed that the assassin went who was also close to Sheikh Jameel-ur-Rehman, also close to Sheikh Jameel-ur-Rehman, who was Jihadi, who took part in the Afghan Jihad and who took part in the Jihadi, ur-Rehman at the time of assassination. A former A former at the time of assassination. ur-Rehman killed by the people surrounding Sheikh Jameel- killed by himself after achieving the target or if he was the target or if he was himself after achieving not clear if Abdullah Roomi, the assassin, killed the assassin, Abdullah Roomi, not clear if not be considered as suicide attacks. Second, it is Second, not be considered as suicide attacks. attacker shot the target and then killed himself will attacker being used for this study since cases in which the since cases in which this study being used for it does not fulfill the definition of suicide attack of suicide attack it does not fulfill the definition two fundamental problems with this claim. First, First, fundamental problems with this claim. two 56 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis operational commander of Al-Qaeda, master- armed forces and law enforcement agencies, and minded and financed the assassination attempt on the allied forces in Afghanistan. Such provocative Musharraf. Abu Faraj was deeply connected with action by the Red Mosque was destined to invite Al-Qaeda’s North African cells before becoming government reaction. Abdul Rasheed Ghazi, the involved in Pakistan. According to Amir Mir, a deputy-head cleric at the Red Mosque, admitted journalist and expert on Al-Qaeda, it was the first that the military establishment was infuriated and field operation of Abu Faraj al-Libbi.99 the mosque administration was persuaded and Until July 2007, suicide attacks were not pressured by the intelligence agencies to repeal the preferred tactic for militant outfits operating the decree.101 Ghazi, who was serving as an as- in Pakistan. The country witnessed only 16 such sistant secretary in the education department was bombings from 1995 to 2006.100 The military op- also sacked for provoking the public against the eration against the “Red Mosque” in Islamabad in government. However, the mosque administration July 2007 radically transformed the threat land- was adamant to uphold the fatwa until Musharraf scape of Pakistan. The hardliner clerics associated government ceased military operations in the with Red Mosque had become vociferous critics of tribal areas of Pakistan. then President Pervez Musharraf, who joined the Meanwhile, Red Mosque administration US led war on terror despite popular opposition. also got involved in anti-government demonstra- The clerics demanded immediate reversal of the tions demanding the release of individuals picked anti-Taliban and pro-US policies he adopted and up by the intelligence agencies on suspicion of implementation of Taliban-style Sharia (Islamic their alleged links with the terrorist outfits. Red law) governance in Pakistan. At the core of dispute Mosque clerics were also found involved in the between the government and Red Mosque lied a first assassination attempt on Gen Pervez Mush- fatwa (religious decree) issued under the supervi- arraf in December 2003. Pakistani law enforce- sion of Maulana Abdul Aziz that declared Mush- ment agencies termed the breakaway factions of arraf should be killed for his pro-Western policies Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) as the prime suspects in and called military actions against Taliban in the the attack. It is pertinent to mention here that the tribal areas un-Islamic. Red Mosque clergy was pivotal in founding Jaish- The religious decree issued by the Red e-Muhammad (JeM), long before the international Mosque provided the local and international intervention in Afghanistan in 2001. Against this militants much needed religious legitimacy for backdrop, confrontation between the mosque and their violence directed at the Pakistani state, its 101 Ghazi Abdul Rasheed “Dehshat Gardi ka Drama, Haqaiq Haazir hein” (Fake Charges of Terrorism and the Real Facts), article was published 99 Amir Mir, “Abu Faraj Al-Libbi’s Arrest A Decisive Blow To Al in an Urdu daily in Pakistan and reprinted in an official publications of Qaeda”, Cobra Post, www.cobrapost.com/documents/Abufaraj.htm, last Red Mosque’s publication department. Please see Saeqa Kanwal “Allah Key visited April 22, 2009. Sipahi” Publications Department, The Students Movement (Red Mosque) 100 See Appendix 1 Islamabad, pp 63. 57 Understanding Suicide Terrorism Khuram Iqbal Most of 107 1 1 1 5 2 6 60 63 86 68 No. of Suicide Attacks of Suicide No. Although successive military operations Although successive 1995 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year This rise was stark in contrast to 7 suicide to 7 suicide stark in contrast was This rise Raza Hamdani, BBC Urdu.com, March 23, 2008, www.bbc.co.uk/ Raza by 2009, published Security Report According to the Pakistan 108 Fig. 1.Chronology of Suicide Attacks in Pakistan Attacks 1.Chronology of Suicide Fig. in FATA destroyed a number of training facilities destroyed in FATA training the graduates of such suicide bombers, for camps continued to strike. - installa and military forces security targeted cally tions. in 2006. in Pakistan recorded that were bombings is the fact that in the first quarter More surprising Iraq surpassed war-torn even Pakistan of 2008, bomb- Afghanistan in suicide and insurgency-hit the country rocked suicide attacks At least 18 ings. 1st 2008. 1st and March January between 107 last urdu/pakistan/story/2008/03/080323_suicide_attacks_sen.shtml, visited March 25, 2008. 108 during struck Pakistan 86 suicide attacks Studies, Peace Institute for Pak 2009. the suicide attacks happened in Pakistan’s volatile volatile Pakistan’s happened in the suicide attacks and Areas (FATA) Tribal Administered Federally 2009, In (KPK) province. Pakhtunkhwa Khyber to rise un- continued in Pakistan suicide attacks abated. , last visited March 05, 2011. When “Operation Sun- When 104 was launched to clear the Red launched was 105 Initially “the movement” was only was “the movement” Initially The Red Mosque clerics and students The Red Mosque clerics and 103 102 - specifi attacks 37 suicide Out of these, Khuram Library Iqbal, “Children Shariah?”, South to Enforce Umme Ahsan (The Principal of Hafsa, a female seminary Jamea 2007, Maulana Abdul Aziz started Since January seeing “sacred Studies, Peace Institute for 2007, Pak Security Report Pakistan 106 http://san-pips.com/print.php?id=25 Understanding Understanding Terrorism Suicide of blood”. vowed to “defend the sacred places till last drop “defend to vowed throughout the country. manding the implementation of strict Islamic laws strict Islamic laws manding the implementation of Mosque and its adjacent seminaries started de- Mosque and its adjacent seminaries within a few weeks the students and clerics of Red the students and clerics of weeks within a few mosques and seminaries in Islamabad. However, However, in Islamabad. mosques and seminaries limited to dissuade government from demolishing from demolishing government limited to dissuade others. which killed at least 770 people and injured 1574 which suicide attacks were reported throughout the year, reported throughout the year, were suicide attacks and targeted killings of political leaders, nearly 60 nearly leaders, and targeted killings of political 2007, apart from ambushes, roadside bomb blasts apart from ambushes, 2007, into the security nightmare that it is. In the year year In the it is. into the security nightmare that bombings across the country and turned Pakistan turned Pakistan bombings across the country and cataclysmic event that triggered waves of suicide of suicide that triggered waves cataclysmic event reaching consequences. It became the single most consequences. reaching edented event in the history of Pakistan with far in the history of Pakistan edented event - the most unprec it marked 2007, Mosque in July Asia Net, 103 per kia guzri (The Mosque), “Saneha Lal Masjid: Hum adjacent to Red oftragedy Islamabad, Mosque: Our sufferings) Lal Masjid Publications, Red 13. October 10, 2007, pp. 104 — in under way got dreams” time the operation the by — numbering 300 ordered personally which according to him, Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) raisehim to ofstandard the on sharia implement and the jihad declare revolt, of See Editorial: Wages his own. Times, extremism,Daily action against late 05, 2007 July Lahore, 105 106 2008, Islamabad. January 102 ish them. Capital Development Authority (CDA) to demol- to (CDA) Authority Capital Development adjacent seminaries a security risk and ordered the risk and seminaries a security adjacent security agencies declared Red Mosque and its Red Mosque agencies declared security the Musharraf government was inevitable. The The inevitable. was government the Musharraf by the media) by rise” (or Operation Silence as it was later termed (or Operation Silence as it was rise” 58 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis The year 2010 witnessed 67 suicide attacks in Karachi in November and the targeting of Shia occurring at a rate of about five per month, with a mourners in Karbala Gamay Shah in Lahore in little over half occurring in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa September are glaring examples of the use of co- (KPK), the province bordering FATA. The tribal re- ordinated suicide attacks by terrorist groups. gion of FATA was the second most severely affect- More importantly, for the first time in the history ed region by suicide bombings where 14 attacks of Pakistan, militant outfits used females to carry took place, followed by Punjab with nine suicide out suicide attacks. Three such attacks were report- attacks. Although still very high, the number of ed in 2010. The first ever suicide attack perpetrated suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2010 was lower than by a female struck an Internally Displaced Peoples the previous year (compared to 87 such attacks in (IDP) camp in Kohat in April that year. The attack 2009, 68 suicide bombings were reported in 2010). killed more than 41 people and was attributed to In the past, each passing year witnessed a gradual Lashkar-e- Jhangvi al-Almi. The outfit reportedly and consistent increase in the number of suicide carried out another attack using a female bomber attacks and the consequent fatalities in Pakistan in Lahore to target a procession of Shia mourn- since 2005. However, 2010 was the first year the ers in September.112 The third suicide attack by a number of suicide attacks and fatalities in such at- female bomber occurred in Bajaur agency in De- tacks declined compared to the previous year.109 cember 2010. This use of female bombers in three Law enforcement agencies contributed to such attacks in 2010 raises many important ques- curtailing the number of suicide bombings. Ac- tions including as how and why have the militants cording to data collected by the Pak Institute for opted to use females to launch suicide bombings? Peace Studies (PIPS), at least 52 would-be suicide The history of suicide terrorism in Pakistan bombers were apprehended by the police and demonstrates that the particular tactic emerged other security agencies across Pakistan in 2010.110 in the country years after the first such attack hit Out of the 1,187 people killed in suicide attacks the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut in 1981.Al Dawa (The across Pakistan in 2010, civilians had the highest Call), the Iranian-backed Shia group that sought to number of fatalities. A total of 1,049 civilians and topple Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, claimed 138 personnel of armed forces and law enforce- credit for the attack113 Why has the country be- ment agencies lost their lives in suicide terrorism. come a hunting ground for the Fidayeen114 of vari- Complex suicide attacks involving multiple bomb- ous terrorist outfits? The following section exam- ers increased in Pakistan. Attacks at the shrine of 111 112 Khuram Iqbal, “And Now the Female Bombers” Weekly Pulse, Hazrat Ali Hajveri in Lahore in July, CID centre Islamabad, January 14, 2011. 113 Daniel Pipes, “The Scourge of Suicide Terrorism,” The National Interest (Summer 1986). Cited in Adam Dolnik, “Die and Let Die: Exploring 109 “Pakistan Security Report 2010” Pak Institute for Peace Studies Links between Suicide Terrorism and Terrorist Use of Chemical, Biologi- (PIPS) Islamabad, January 2011. cal, Radiological, and Nuclear Weapons” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 17 110 Ibid (2003), pp. 35. 111 A profoundly honoured Sufi in Sunni-Barelwi tradition 114 A term used by Pakistani Taliban to define suicide bombers 59 Understanding Suicide Terrorism Khuram Iqbal - - , last The 120 These moti- 119 These include a sense 118 Scholars have found an- found have Scholars 117 Pape’s earlier explanation was based on was earlier explanation Pape’s Ibid. 10. pp. Cutting the Fuse, K Feldman, and James A. Pape Robert Ibid, pp. 79-80; pp. 88-92 79-80; pp. Ibid, pp. report in Afghanistan, September on Suicide attacks UNAMA’s visited December 28, 2008. 119 120 8. See footnote 117 118 2007, http://www.unama-afg.org/docs/_UN-Docs/UNAMA%20-%20SUI CIDE%20ATTACKS%20STUDY%20-%20SEPT%209th%202007.pdf religious differences. religious ecdotal evidence in the cases of Afghanistan and Afghanistan cases of in the evidence ecdotal instance, For claims. substantiate Pape’s Iraq that the United Na- by 2007 a report in September Afghanistan (UNAMA) to Assistance Mission tion’s the perceived that the occupation or validated is forces the foreign Afghanistan by occupation of suicide attacks. factor behind a primary motivating Afghan- that suicide assailants in The report noted seemed to be mobilized istan and their supporters a range of grievances. by and civilian casualties, anger over of occupation, and a personal family, affronts to their national, counterinsurgen- sense of honor and dignity from the allied forces. cy operations by vations are all linked to the presence of foreign to the presence of foreign are all linked vations forces. - that occurred in dif global data of suicide attacks In from 1980 to 2003. ferent parts of the world - K Feld in collaboration with James Pape, 2010, tested his earlier thesis against the data col- man, a substantial The data showed lected since 2004. in the number of suicide terrorist attacks growth than since 2004– nearly 500 percent more attacks from 1980 to 2003 combined. in all the years mation for the hypothesis that military occupa- the hypothesis mation for tion is the main factor driving suicide terrorism. authors concluded that there was “strong confir authors concluded that there was - In sum, ac- In sum, 116 Robert Pape, the founder and a the founder Robert Pape, 115 The first set of literature points to national- The first set of literature points A plethora of literature exists on the gen- on exists A plethora of literature Robert A. Pape and James K Feldman, “Cutting the Fuse: The K Feldman, and James A. Pape Robert of Logic The Strategic Dying to Win: A. Pape, Robert Suicide Understanding Understanding Terrorism Suicide homeland to take those forces out.” those forces homeland to take military forces in what the terrorists see as their military forces proponent of “nationalist theory of suicide terror proponent of state that has .coercing a foreign . major objective. campaign over the past two decades has had as a the past two campaign over ism” argues that “every group mounting a suicide “every argues that ism” cide terrorism. ism or foreign occupation as the root cause of sui- occupation as the root cause of ism or foreign 115 tive Deprivation; and 5) Revenge. 5) Revenge. and Deprivation; tive explosion of The global suicide terrorism to stop it” (Chicago: and how ofUniversity Dying to Win: A. Pape, 53; Robert 2010), pp. Press, Chicago of Logic The Strategic 2005), House, Random York: (New Suicide Terrorism 61-63. pp. 116 21 pp. Terrorism, or Salafism; 3) Effectiveness; 4) Absolute or Rela- Absolute or 4) 3) Effectiveness; or Salafism; tance to Occupation; 2) Islamist Fundamentalism tance to Occupation; tion of suicide attacks: 1) Nationalism or Resis- tion of suicide attacks: - and evolu tors as contributing to the emergence around the world indicates the following five fac- five indicates the following around the world existing literature on suicide terrorist campaigns literature on suicide terrorist campaigns existing proliferation of this tactic in Pakistan. A review of A review proliferation of this tactic in Pakistan. ficiently explaining the emergence, evolution and evolution explaining the emergence, ficiently literature and theories, however, fall short of suf- fall however, literature and theories, in different conflict-ridden societies. The existing The societies. in different conflict-ridden esis, rationale and evolution of suicide terrorism rationale and evolution esis, Evolution of Suicide Terrorism Terrorism of Suicide Evolution Explanations: and Existing evolution of suicide terrorism in other contexts. contexts. in other of suicide terrorism evolution ines the existing literature on the emergence and the emergence on literature the existing ines is nationalism,” but it is inflamed by intolerance of but it is inflamed is nationalism,” cording to Pape, “the taproot of suicide terrorism cording to Pape, 60 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis The stationing of foreign combat forces (ground attacks”123 in Pakistan. and tactical air force units) on territory that ter- Pape’s argument is widely contested by rorists’ prize accounts for 87 percent of the over leading experts in the field of terrorism studies 1,800 suicide terrorist attacks around the world including Bruce Hoffman, Mia Bloom, Jeff Good- since 2004”121. The dramatic rise in suicide attacks win and Scot Atran. The opponents of “nationalist in Pakistan was also attributed to “the occupation Fig 2. Area Distribution of Suicide attacks in of Pakistan’s western tribal region by local combat Pakistan (1995–2009) forces allied to American military forces stationed Area No. of Attacks across the border in Afghanistan”122 NWFP 114 It remains to be seen if the groups and FATA 30 individuals involved in suicide terrorism in Paki- Punjab 34 stan are motivated by the urge to “liberate” their Sindh 7 land from the “occupation of Pakistani forces” that Islamabad 14 are perceived as acting on the behest of the U.S. If Balochistan 7 nationalism is the root cause of the emergence and Azad Kashmir 2 rise of suicide missions in the country, which cat- theory” of suicide terrorism deduce that identities egory of nationalism explains this phenomenon? or ideologies other than nationalism can motivate If it is Pakistani nationalism, what is the role of suicide terrorism.124 Citing the examples of the use foreign terrorist outfits such as Al-Qaeda, Islamic of suicide bombings by the Sunni militants in Iraq Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkistan against the Shia and Kurd civilians, and by the Islamic Movement (ETIM), Libyan Islamic Fighters Al-Qaeda linked bombers hailing from countries (LIF), Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), and a number of not-occupied by the U.S, Goodwin asserts that home-grown terrorists from Western countries in “Suicide terrorism, and much non-suicidal terror- the cultivation and continued logistical, ideological ism, is usually motivated by nationalism that has and financial support of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan been stoked by foreign military occupations, but (TTP), the group responsible for the maximum identities and ideologies other than nationalism number of suicide attacks in the country? Signifi- cant numbers of fighters, trainers, financers and have also motivated suicide terrorism, including 125 suicide bombers from Punjab and other parts of anarchism and Islamism.” Pakistan may also undercut “Pakhtoon national- 123 The term commonly used by the militant groups in Pakistan for ism” as the defining factor behind the “sacrificial what is generally known today in most parts of the world as ‘‘suicide at- tacks’’ is Fidayeen (Sacrificial operations) 124 Jeff Goodwin, “What Do We Really Know about (Suicide) Ter- rorism?” Sociological Forum 2 (2006), pp. 315-330. 121 Ibid. 125 Jeff Goodwin, “What Do We Really Know about (Suicide) Ter- 122 Ibid. rorism?”, pp. 329. See footnote 50. 61 Understanding Suicide Terrorism Khuram Iqbal He contends 128 - While discussing the evolu ” 129 Raiz Hassan and Martha Crenshaw at- Raiz Hassan and Martha Crenshaw - ex Terrorism” “Suicide Ami Pedahzur’s Ami Pedahzur, “Suicide Terrorism” (Polity Press, 2005) Press, (Polity “Suicide Terrorism” Ami Pedahzur, 23 Ibid, p. Ibid His argument stumbles when one consid- 130 ers the current environment in today’s Pakistan, Pakistan, ers the current environment in today’s terrorist outfits with single, not where multiple, this tactic on a are employing objectives varying scale. massive tribute the phenomenal spread of suicide bomb- 128 129 130 lethality, one needs to look further than religion as religion than further to look one needs lethality, terrorists’ account modern into and take a motive as their primary “suicide terror” to use willingness . modus operandi and origins of this trend by plores the history campaigns led on the suicide terrorist focusing Libera- militant outfits, Palestinian Hezbollah, by Party Workers Eelam (LTTE), Tamil of Tigers tion Al- Qaeda. (PKK) and of Kurdistan tion of this tactic in a particular conflict, Pedahzur Pedahzur conflict, tion of this tactic in a particular terrorist elucidates that the majority of suicide a single organization with led by campaigns were were dis- a definite goal and suicide operatives up targets related to the in order to blow patched goal. - expo certainly grown that suicide bombings have he makes But years. the last twenty nentially over that this is not solely an Islamic however, clear, with great phenomenon but has been utilized various militant groups that subscribe by efficacy Tigers as Liberation to non-religious agenda such is not the factor Ealem (LTTE)..”Islam Tamil of suicide terrorism and treating it as that explains is misleading. such - , who conclude , 127 - the influ of Pakistan, In the case 126 The idea that religion is a primary source - funda Islamist to also points Atran Scot Scott Atran, “The Moral Logic and Growth of Scott Atran, and Growth “The Moral Logic - Suicide Terror Is Suicide Terrorism: B Capell and Emile Sahliyeh, Matthew Understanding Understanding Terrorism Suicide including Capell and Sahliyeh ism has been discarded by a number of scholars a number of scholars ism has been discarded by of suicide terror of emergence and evolution Lebanon in 1983. Lebanon in 1983. terrorism. Hezbollah had already set an example in set an example Hezbollah had already terrorism. Soviet occupation could not have imagined suicide occupation could not have Soviet Jihadi outfits taking part in the movement against movement Jihadi outfits taking part in the society under state’s patronage? It is not as if the society under state’s martyrdom and Salafism was injected in Pakistani was injected in martyrdom and Salafism tactic during the Afghan Jihad when the culture of tactic during the tacks, why did militant outfits not resort to this did militant outfits why tacks, is the primary driving force behind suicide at- is the primary driving force ism, with its conception of martyrdom and jihad, with its conception of martyrdom and jihad, ism, terrorism. For instance, if Islamic fundamental- if Islamic instance, For terrorism. about the role of religion in promoting suicide about the role of religion in promoting lence in Pakistan raises more difficult questions raises lence in Pakistan Atran’s argument. But the ongoing wave of vio- But the ongoing wave argument. Atran’s school of thought in the country), lay credence to lay of thought in the country), school poses Shia Islam but also the dominant Barelwi but also the dominant Barelwi poses Shia Islam law (a local version of Salafism that not only op- of Salafism that not only (a local version law group that vows to implement Deobandi Shariah to implement Deobandi Shariah group that vows carried out by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a sectarian a sectarian the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, carried out by may not be ruled out. Multiple suicide bombings Multiple be ruled out. not may ence of Salafism in promoting suicide terrorism in promoting suicide terrorism ence of Salafism 126 ism” The Washington Quarterly 2 (Spring 2006), p p. 127–147. 2 (Spring 2006), p p. Quarterly ism” The Washington 127 267-283 cited in 20 (2007), p. Security Journal the Critical Factor? Religion 2005) Press, (Polity “Suicide Terrorism” Ami Pedahzur, dus operandi. that is fostering the rapid expansion of this mo- of expansion the rapid that is fostering mentalist ideology commonly known as Salafism as known ideology commonly mentalist that to understand modern terrorism’s increased that to understand modern terrorism’s 62 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis ings to its effectiveness as a tactic.131 Disregarding only became a victim of suicide bombing cam- psychological or social factors, Crenshaw con- paigns after 2002 and the number of such attacks tends suicide bombing has been steadily rising skyrocketed specifically in the aftermath of “opera- because terrorists have learned that it is effec- tion Sunrise” against the Red Mosque in July 2007. tive. According to Hassan, “suicide attacks cause Which factors explain the non-existence of suicide more deaths, they provide psychological impacts bombings before 2002? Validating Bloom’s claim, - impacts that are further enhanced by the media Lanche opined that the aftermath of the 2007 coverage.”132According to Mia Bloom’s theory, sui- events in Lal Masjid would constitute a second cide bombing only come during the second itera- stage in the conflict. tion of conflict, after more conventional means Bloom’s ‘last resort’ theory is contested by have been unable to yield desirable outcomes for Gambetta135 and the trajectory of suicide attacks the insurgents.133 does not support her claim that “non-state actors Jermie Lanche134 found anecdotal evidence tend to resort to atrocities in the second itera- to substantiate Bloom’s claim. Research by Lanche tion (or more) of conflict after the other strategies asserts that the Pakistani case of suicide terrorism have failed to yield the desired results, and when 136 is consistent with the existing theories advocated faced with a hurting stalemate.” The TTP initi- by Pape and Bloom. While applying Pape’s “mili- ated a suicide bombing campaign at the peak of tary occupation” thesis on Pakistan, Lanche argues its power and popularity. Until 2007, a majority of that the Jihadi forces using suicide bombings in the Pakistanis regarded the group’s actions as a Pakistan perceive their targets (state institutions, legitimate struggle against the American occupa- religious scholars and political leaders) as the tion of Afghanistan, and the Pakistan government public face of a foreign power, namely the United was deemed an American puppet. Militarily, the group maintained a strong control over FATA and States. Hence, according to this author, suicide its adjacent areas. The operation against the Red terrorism in Pakistan is largely motivated by the Mosque might be a starting point of the sec- perceived occupation or influence of the U.S in ond phase of the conflict, but the second part of Pakistan, which is resented by the Islamist groups. Bloom’s statement (after more conventional means Anti-Americanism and Jihadi outfits have coex- have been unable to yield desirable outcomes for isted in Pakistan for decades. However, the country the insurgents) can be contested in view of the 131 Martha Crenshaw, “The Logic of Terrorism: Terrorist Behavior significant concessions offered to the militants be- as a Product of Choice”, Terrorism and Counter Terrorism 1 (1998) p. 54-64. 132 Riaz Hassan, “Global Rise of Suicide Terrorism: An Overview” Asian Journal of Social Science 36 (2008), p. 271-29 135 Diego Gambetta Making Sense of Suicide Missions (Oxford 133 Mia Bloom, Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (Colum- University Press, 2005), pp. 261. bia University Press, 2005), p. 89. 136 Mia Bloom, Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (Colum- 134 Jermie Lanche, “Suicide Terrorism in Pakistan: An Assessment” Special Report 84, September 2009, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, bia University Press, 2005), pp. 89. New Dehli, India, Online version www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/SR84-Jeremie- Suicideterrorism.pdf. 63 Understanding Suicide Terrorism Khuram Iqbal - 139 Large-scale collater 138 Mostly, these young bombers are local- bombers young these Mostly, 137 Interview with an official of Bureau (IB), Islamabad, Intelligence Ibid. - Pesha Post, with Frontier associated Journalist Aqeel Yousafzai, “Fidayeen attacks” in Pakistan. Investigations by by Investigations in Pakistan. attacks” “Fidayeen the conflict indicate that agencies enforcement law hunt- an ideal provide and KPK FATA zones of suicide potential young recruiting for ing ground bombers. ly hired boys, disgruntled and dismayed over the over and dismayed disgruntled ly hired boys, - ones during military opera deaths of their loved are bombers in Pakistan Most of the suicide tions. FATA from Pashtun-dominated to come believed military operations massive Since 2003, and KPK. military to evict the Pakistani by in FATA launched militants resulted in the death of civilians foreign and destruction of property. 137 6, 2008 January 138 139 2008. July war, al damage during military operations may have ul- have may al damage during military operations of hundreds of timately resulted in the production Pakistan’s KPK. and suicide bombers across FATA collateral dam- military operation and the resulted producing re- age is not the only factor behind US drone In fact, suicide bombers. venge-seeking be and adjacent areas also seem to in FATA strikes - against the Paki contributing to turn individuals member once Taliban As a stani state and society. “Our recruiters spend more than 3 months stated, But a single to find a potential suicide bomber. easy the task very makes US drone/missile strike inside our US strike After each our recruiters. for for seeking revenge numbers of youth tribal areas, our local approach the loss of their family relative commanders and register as suicide bombers.” Such claims by militant outfits need to be verified be militant outfits need to claims by Such The element of revenge may also be count- may The element of revenge Gambetta and Hafez attempt to look at Gambetta and Hafez attempt to - allegedly fol the government 2007, Before Understanding Understanding Terrorism Suicide ed as a major factor in the emergence and rise of different. and geopolitical contexts of the conflicts are very of the conflicts are and geopolitical contexts in explaining the case of Pakistan since the social the case of Pakistan in explaining variables behind suicide terrorism, they are limited they behind suicide terrorism, variables studies have been useful to trace macro and micro studies have days leading up to September 11, 2001. Although 2001. 11, leading up to September days ians during the first intifada, and Al-Qaeda in the and ians during the first intifada, - Palestin II, War World Kamikazes of the Japanese bombers worldwide, focusing the case studies on focusing bombers worldwide, examines the motivations and morale of suicide the motivations examines Hafez focuses on the Palestinian case, Gambetta case, on the Palestinian Hafez focuses tive case study, as evident in their works. While in their works. as evident case study, tive studies on one group, or by utilizing a compara- utilizing or by studies on one group, the phenomenon through the use of detailed case the phenomenon through the use witness the spat of suicide bombings. witness the spat of suicide bombings. accelerated and in result the country was set to set to was accelerated and in result the country sions to the militant forces in FATA, the conflict in FATA, sions to the militant forces ment in 2007. Nevertheless, despite these conces- despite Nevertheless, ment in 2007. (North Waziristan) in 2006 and the Wana Agree- Wana in 2006 and the Waziristan) (North the Peace Accord with the Utmanzai Wazir Tribe Tribe Wazir Accord with the Utmanzai the Peace with the Mehsud Tribe (South Waziristan) in 2005, in 2005, Waziristan) (South Tribe with the Mehsud Waziristan) in 2004, the Sararogha Agreement the Sararogha in 2004, Waziristan) Peace Agreement with the Wazir Tribe (South Tribe Wazir Agreement with the Peace These pre-2007 agreements included the Shakai agreements included the Shakai These pre-2007 policy makers as “Pakistan giving in to Islamists”. Islamists”. giving in to “Pakistan as policy makers were widely condemned by the Western media and Western the widely condemned by were through a number of peace agreements, which which of peace agreements, through a number Taliban the Pakistani a policy of appeasing lowed against the government. government. against the fore they initiated the suicide bombing campaigns campaigns bombing the suicide initiated they fore 64 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis and examined in a systematic manner. ing suicide attacks for their cause, critiques of the Talal Asad, in his study “On Suicide- “organizational approach” maintain that “Rejecting Bombing”, criticizes the existing literature on individual factors on the basis of a “fundamental suicide terrorism on the account that it chooses attribution error” (the tendency to explain behav- to focus on the motivations of suicide-bombers ior in terms of individual personality traits when (when motivations are, actually, not accessible by significant situational factors in the larger soci- researchers). The closest attempt to explore the ety are at work) can lead to another fundamental causes of suicide attacks in the region has been miscalculation: neglecting traits robustly related to made by Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi who also tends particular propensities or temperamental styles.”142 to discard individual profiling of suicide bomb- A systematic understanding of suicide terrorism in ers as inadequate and emphasizes organizational Pakistan must consider each possible factor, thus profiling of suicide bombing as the preferred disregarding individual motivations can impede analytical tool.140 “Profiling the organizations in research goals. strife- ridden countries like Pakistan may reveal further fault lines, which could generate valuable projections about the future trajectory of suicide Conclusion terrorism as an organizational phenomenon,” Zaidi A Needed Comprehensive Research Study notes. Expanding on Pape’s thesis, he attempts to explain why suicide terrorism has gained common In view of the aforementioned studies on usage by organizations in Pakistan. According to suicide terrorist campaigns, it can be safely as- Zaidi, the post 9/11 policy-shift in the Pakistani sumed that the case of suicide terrorism in the government against the Jihadi forces they previ- context of Pakistan is yet to be established, as ously supported generated more violent organiza- there has been a lack of effort made to explore the tions. It seemed like the moderates had become problem in a systematic manner. Although the unpopular, and the cadres demanded more ‘af- country remains one of the worst hit by suicide firmative’ actions from the leadership, aggravating bombers, a focus on Pakistan has rarely become a the loop of violence. Thus, a plausible explanation topic of empirical or theoretical research on the for the aggravation of the suicide attacks can be subject. the Pakistan Army’s initiated operations in the A comprehensive research study on the tribal areas.141 Whereas organizations play an im- patterns of suicide terrorism in Pakistan must take portant role in planning, executing and manipulat- 142 Adolf Tobena from Unit of Medical Psychology, Department of Psychiatry and Forensic Medicine, Autonomous University of Barcelona, 140 Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi, “Organizational Profiling of Suicide raised this important point in a letter to the editor of “Science”. Pls see Let- Terrorism: A Pakistani Case Study” Defence Studies 3 (2009), p. 409—453 ters to Editor ‘Individual Factors in Suicide Terrorism” Science, Volume 304, 141 Ibid. April 4, 2004 65 Book Review: Understanding Al Qaeda: Changing War and Global Politics Review by Tom Smith - Yes, another book on Al Qaeda, but accord- but Al Qaeda, another book on Yes, of the numerous foul fallen have Many This new addition to landscape has a dif- This new Book Review Book Understanding Al Qaeda and Global Politics War Changing Ould Mohamedouy By Mohammad-Mahmoud Smith Tom by Review argues “controversially this one ing to the blurb, to and the only way Al Qaeda has clear aims, that in a seri- defeat it is to engage with its `arguments bold and slightly an awfully And that’s ous way”. I think the book which odd statement of intent for can be fairly and critically judged. new any and so reading AQ pitfalls in writing on carries baggage that the reader and ‘interpretation’ the best new With appreciate. author should well researched, adding to the minority of well works while the conceptualised and thought provoking, “Al and his 9/11 reactionary, Williams of Paul likes continue and alike, Terror,” Brotherhood of Qaeda: to mislead and engender dangerous ideas about realities and more importantly its meaning. AQs This trend is certainly not limited to academic indeed some of the more biased and in- writings; would argue most danger work (and I flammatory ous) has come from policy publications and state political slogans apparatuses under pressure for news. the evening and hard targets for Book Review Book To date, the aforementioned critical ques- the aforementioned date, To level level suicide attacks on an operational and ideological suicide attacks help in identifying the steps needed to counter understanding of the threat. This will ultimately understanding of the threat. realm of policy making by providing a systematic a providing realm of policy making by outcome of this study will also contribute in the outcome of this study already existing literature on suicide terrorism, the literature on suicide terrorism, existing already filling this academic gap and adding strength to filling this academic gap and adding and prevention of suicide terrorism. Apart from Apart of suicide terrorism. and prevention or revising the existing theories on the genesis the existing or revising which will contribute in strengthening, rejecting, rejecting, will contribute in strengthening, which tions have attracted little systematic research, attracted little systematic research, tions have militants? against the central government and the Sunni against the central government resorted to this tactic, despite years of resistance despite years resorted to this tactic, tionalist and Shia sectarian militant groups not yet groups not yet tionalist and Shia sectarian militant Mosque in July 2007? Why have the Baloch na- the Baloch have Why 2007? Mosque in July cally after “Operation Sunrise” against the Red “Operation Sunrise” cally after - specifi attacks increase in such an unparalleled suicide bombers? Why has the country witnessed has the Why suicide bombers? stan? What is the average profile of the Pakistani Pakistani profile of the What is the average stan? - using suicide bombings in Paki militant groups during the Afghan Jihad? What are the profiles of What are the profiles Afghan Jihad? during the lamist militant outfits refrain from suicide attacks attacks from suicide outfits refrain lamist militant evolution of this tactic in Pakistan. Why did the Is- did the Why in Pakistan. of this tactic evolution on suicide terrorism explain the emergence and the emergence terrorism explain on suicide into account the extent to which existing theories theories existing to which the extent account into 66 Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis ficult act to follow, to emulate, outdo and engage While the deduction is accurate, I am not with the like of Jason Burke, Faisal Devji, Scott sure that it is surprisingly ignored. In fact, there is Atran, and Fawaz Gerges is certainly no mean feat. good reason to ignore that difficult question. But it is in that landscape that this work must be Who, for one, would know why AQ acts? judged. Especially so when the author outlines his Isn’t it much more natural to cry havoc and let slip premise: the dogs of war rather than ‘get inside the head of those evil terrorists?’ If Mohamedou has been “This is a work of political science which surprised by the reluctance of the mainstream weighs social underpinnings of political vio- and academe to pursue this question than one lence and borrows from the legal discipline to make a statement relevant to policy-making has to ask about his grounding in the debate as a meant to address terrorism. It provides an argu- whole. Asking why is certainly the most important ment about the necessary sober examination of question in the field, though figuring out how Al Qaeda’s casus belli.” that question can and should be answered is not brought any closer into view through this work. Mohamedou opens with a chapter dedicat- ed to what he sees as AQ’s casus belli (or justifica- Mohamedou asserts that AQ is an organisa- tion for war). An excellent decision as this area of tion, an entity, capable of a casus belli without ever understanding is often ignored and more in-depth convincing us of how or what led him to that con- comment and research is desperately needed. So, clusion. Any author describing AQ as a cohesive it is with deep disappointment then, that the work body capable of control and rationale must surely falls short on this stated goal. defend this assertion, for the mounting evidence to the contrary. He uses the well-quoted words This failure is not down to any one central of Osama Bin Laden and there are some neatly issue of methodology, political bias or understand- drawn diagrams of the organisational structure ing as has been in the case in other works, but an of AQ through the years, but this is not evidence, appreciation of the debates and other works in and the attempt to extrapolate a meaning from it is the field which say more than the author manages problematic. In essence, Mohamedou risks being here, ask more interesting questions and vitally do culpable of the same mistake many others make so in a more fluid and illuminating style. by believing the AQ myth and buying into the AQ For instance, in the introduction, an alarm brand before ascertaining any reality. This book bell rings when Mohamedou notes: does not rely on any primary research, nor does the author exhibit any unique access to AQ, which “It is particularly surprising that policy-mak- would support his assertion of AQ as an organisa- ers and academe chose to ignore reasons for tion worthy of analysis in this manner. which a party is going to war…” 67 Book Review: Understanding Al Qaeda: Changing War and Global Politics Review by Tom Smith Scott Attran’s “Talking to the Enemy” and and to the Enemy” “Talking Attran’s Scott put forward by Devji, are unfortunately also miss - also are unfortunately Devji, by forward put this book. ing from attempted have to Death” “Driven Ariel Merari’s - limited success but their con (granted with only not be underestimated) to the tribution should and actually conducted exists AQ question of why because of these works I mention some research. in- to widen the scope of their solid commitments those to include examination AQ the quiry beyond suicide bombers jihadis, often labelled as militants, them simply as and terrorists without classifying no which for a single body Al Qaeda, members of are whom we for but yet one controls or speaks for has a meaning and justifica- supposed to believe tion – stated or inferred - Book Review Book While Devji certainly set a high watermark certainly set a high watermark While Devji However, when Mohamedou overlooks the the Mohamedou overlooks when However, Any author with the aim of examining AQs AQs author with the aim of examining Any Instead, the work runs down tangents, tangents, runs down the work Instead, while taking on board the conceptual progression so, and have pursued primary sourced research pursued primary sourced research and have so, doesn’t reverse that trend. Those that have done Those that have that trend. reverse doesn’t ed to engage with the ideas since and this work ed to engage with the ideas since and this work for thinking in this area, few writers have attempt- writers have few thinking in this area, for work. work. table then, its hard to commend this over Devjis Devjis its hard to commend this over table then, the Jihad,” who I would argue brought more to the who I would the Jihad,” and Justification by Faisal Devji in “Landscapes of in Faisal Devji by and Justification task of highlighting this question of AQs meaning AQs of task of highlighting this question fact that half a decade earlier he was beaten to the beaten to was fact that half a decade earlier he of the current situation and does provide an inter provide of the current situation and does AQ. connected to esting collage of other writings it does not contain some accurate interpretations it does not contain some accurate of both problems lies this work, which is not to say is not to say which of both problems lies this work, tower dwelling thinkers, somewhere in the middle somewhere thinkers, dwelling tower about AQs motives only be the preserve of ivory of ivory only be the preserve motives AQs about proven basis. Nor should a philosophical question basis. proven cation made from secondary sources that lack a a that lack cation made from secondary sources justification for war should not impose a justifi- for justification gagement with their material and his stated aims. gagement with their respectful citation. But there is no in-depth en- But there is no in-depth respectful citation. the New Wars distinction are given a cursory and a cursory and distinction are given Wars the New paragraph on just war theory and Mary Kaldor and theory and war paragraph on just like Political Philosophy, Paul Gilbert in a short Paul Philosophy, Political like of authors in areas he is obviously interested in, interested in, he is obviously of authors in areas goes through the motions in mentioning a number in mentioning the motions goes through the books own stated goal and aim. The author The and aim. stated goal own the books which semi-interesting it does not contend with it does not contend semi-interesting which SATSA STUDENT ASSOCIATION ON TERRORISM & SECURITY ANALYSIS The Journal on Terrorism & Security Analysis is published by the Student Association on Terrorism & Security Analysis with the support of the following organizations: