“Data Flow in Forecasting and Preventing Hurricanes Damages in ”

Dr José Rubiera Director National Forecast Center Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET) INSMET,INSMET, CUBACUBA Cuban Academy of Sciences , CUBA.

ScientificScientific Data Data andand Knowledge Knowledge within within the the Information Information SocietySociety 20th20th InternationalInternational CODATA CODATA Conference,Conference, Beijing,Beijing, ChinaChina OctoberOctober 2006 2006 TropicalTropical CyclonesCyclones (Hurricanes) (Hurricanes) ForecastForecast and and Warning Warning Processes Processes Is a process of:

99GatherGather and and Transmit Transmit Meteorological Meteorological Data Data (Input)(Input) 99ProcessProcess Data Data andand Forecast Forecast 99IssueIssue processed processed Data Data (Output)(Output) asas ForecastsForecasts and and Warnings Warnings

MainMain features features of of this this process process:: 99MetMet data data isis needed needed in in widewide regions regions 99TransmissionTransmission needs needs to to be be veryvery fast fast (Meteorological(Meteorological Data Data areare rapidlyrapidly perishabled) perishabled) WMO WORLD WEATHER WATCH (WWW)

GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM GLOBAL TELECOMUNICATION SYSTEM DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING

TROPICAL CYCLONES PROGRAM WMOWMO GLOBALGLOBAL OBSERVINGOBSERVING SYSTEMSYSTEM (GOS)(GOS) WORLDWORLD DATADATA COVERAGECOVERAGE

SURFACESURFACE OBSOBS UPPERUPPER AIRAIR OBSOBS

AIRCRAFTAIRCRAFT OBSOBS SATELLITESATELLITE DATADATA Source: ECMWF MAINMAIN TELECOMMUNICATIONTELECOMMUNICATION NETWORKNETWORK

REGIONALREGIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONTELECOMMUNICATION NETWORKSNETWORKS NATIONALNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONTELECOMMUNICATION NETWORKSNETWORKS

Source: WMO WMOWMO GLOBALGLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONTELECOMMUNICATION NETWORKNETWORK (GTS)(GTS) WORLDWORLD METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL CENTRESCENTRES (WMCs)(WMCs) MELBOURNE,MELBOURNE, MOSCOW,MOSCOW, WASHINGTONWASHINGTON

REGIONALREGIONAL SPECIALISEDSPECIALISED METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL CENTRESCENTRES (RSMCs)(RSMCs) WITHWITH GEOGRAPHICALGEOGRAPHICAL SPECIALIZATIONSPECIALIZATION ALGIERS,ALGIERS, BEIJING,BEIJING, BRACKNELL,BRACKNELL, BRASILIA,BRASILIA, BUENOSBUENOS AIRES,AIRES, CAIRO,CAIRO, DAKAR,DAKAR, DARWIN,DARWIN, JEDDAH,JEDDAH, KHABAROVSK,KHABAROVSK, MELBOURNE,MELBOURNE, MIAMI,MIAMI, MONTREAL,MONTREAL, MOSCOW,MOSCOW, NAIROBI,NAIROBI, NEWNEW DELHI,DELHI, NOVOSIBIRSK,NOVOSIBIRSK, OFFENBACH,OFFENBACH, PRETORIA,PRETORIA, ROME,ROME, TASHKENT,TASHKENT, TOKYO,TOKYO, TUNIS/CASABLANCA,TUNIS/CASABLANCA, WASHINGTONWASHINGTON,, WELLINGTONWELLINGTON WMOWMO WORLDWORLD WEATHERWEATHER WATCHWATCH Global Observations --- Global Telecommunications

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL SPECIALIZED CENTERS GlobalGlobal NumericalNumerical ModelsModels

WMOWMO REGIONALREGIONAL && TCTC SPECIALIZEDSPECIALIZED CENTERSCENTERS RegionalRegional ModelsModels andand TCTC ModelsModels

NATIONALNATIONAL METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL CENTERSCENTERS National Weather Watch, Forecasts & Warnings for the Country

PUBLIC GOVERNMENT CIVIL DEFENSE MEDIA WMOWMO TROPICALTROPICAL CYCLONECYCLONE RSMCRSMC REGIONSREGIONS RegionalRegional TelecomunicationTelecomunication Network Network for for WMO WMO RegionRegion IV IV (North(North and and Central Central America),America), pointpoint to to point point and and multipoint multipoint WMCWMC WASHINGTONWASHINGTON Havana,Havana, CubaCuba

RegionalRegional TelecomunicationTelecomunication Network Network for for WMO WMO RegionRegion IV IV (North(North and and Central Central America),America), pointpoint to to point point and and multipoint multipoint WMOWMO GTSGTS VSATVSAT StationStation at at the the Cuban Cuban National National Meteorological Meteorological CENTROS METEOROLOGICOS PROVINCIALESCenterCenter in in HavanaHavana

Casablanca HAVANAHAVANA Pinar de Río Santa Clara

Cienfuegos Nueva Gerona Sancti Spiritus Ciego de Avila

Camaguey

Holguín Guantánamo CubaCuba receivesreceives and and transmittransmit MeteorologicalMeteorological InformationInformation to to the the GTSGTS inin severalseveral WMOWMO formatsformats OverviewOverview onon CubaCuba

1414 provincesprovinces

11 SpecialSpecial MunicipalityMunicipality 41954195 KeysKeys andand inletsinlets

AreaArea :: 110110 922922 km²km² CoastlineCoastline:: 55 746746 kmkm PopulationPopulation:: 1111 millonmillon Cuba’sCuba’s greatestgreatest meteorologicalmeteorological hazardhazard areare HurricanesHurricanes NATIONALNATIONALRED DE ESTACIONES METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAS (CLIMATOLOGICAS OBSERVINGOBSERVING SYSTEMSYSTEM) ININ CUBACUBA

374 340 325 328 329 318 376

312 316 373 323 327 330 320 326 338 317 375 339 315 322 314 332 348 331 336 344 335 343 313 309 349 347 333 342 321 310 337 346 352 341 345 350 353 355 354 LEYENDA 358 365 357 378 351 370 372 Estaciones 362 371 Pinar del Río Matanzas Ciego de Avila Granma 361 334 369 310 Cabo San Antonio 327 Unión de Reyes 339 Cayo Coco 359 Manzanillo 368 312 Santa Lucía 328 Varadero 345 Júcaro 360 Cabo Cruz 359377 363 364 356 68 Meteorological313 Isabel Rubio 329 Indio Hatuey 346 Venezuela 361 Jucarito 360 68 314 EstacionesSan Juan y Martínez de330 JovellanosSuperficie347 Camilo 377 Veguitas 319 Stations315 Pinar del Río 331 Jaguey Grande Camaguey Santiago de Cuba 316 La24 Palma Agrometeorologicas332 Colón 350 Florida 363 Contramaestre 317 Paso Real de San Diego333 Playa Girón 351 Santa Cruz del Sur 364 Universidad 1 Upper318 Bahía Honda Air SoundingCienfuegos 352 Esmeralda Guantánamo Ciudad12 de la HabanaContaminacion335 Aguada de Pasajeros 353 Nuevitas 319 Valle de Caujerí y La Habana 344 Cantarrana 354 Palo Seco 334 Yateras Station325 Casablanca6 RadiacionVilla Clara Solar 355 Camaguey 356 Jamal 373 Santiago de las Vegas 326 Santo Domingo Las Tunas 368 Guantánamo 320 Guira de Melena 338 Sagua La Grande 357 Las Tunas 369 Punta Maisí 1 High7 322 Batabanó Radares Resolution343 El Yabú 358 Puerto padre 323 Guines 348 Caibarién Holguín 309 Amistad Cuba-Francia 2 340 Bainoa AerologicasSancti Spíritus 362 La Jíquima 321 La Fé Satellite374 Tapaste Earth337 Trinidad Station365 Punta Lucrecia 375 Melena del Sur 341 El Jíbaro 370 Guaro 1 376 Bauta Lidar 342 Tópes de Collantes 371 Pinares de Mayarí 349 Sancti Spíritus 372 Pedagógico 378 Velazco NATIONALNATIONALRED DE ESTACIONES METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAS (CLIMATOLOGICAS OBSERVINGOBSERVING SYSTEMSYSTEM) ININ CUBACUBA

374 340 325 328 329 318 376

312 316 373 323 327 330 320 326 338 317 375 339 315 322 314 332 348 331 336 344 335 343 313 309 349 347 333 342 321 310 337 346 352 341 345 350 353 355 354 LEYENDA 358 365 357 378 351 370 372 Estaciones 362 371 Pinar del Río Matanzas Ciego de Avila Granma 361 334 369 310 Cabo San Antonio 327 Unión de Reyes 339 Cayo Coco 359 Manzanillo 368 312 Santa Lucía 328 Varadero 345 Júcaro 360 Cabo Cruz 359377 363 364 356 68 Meteorological313 Isabel Rubio 329 Indio Hatuey 346 Venezuela 361 Jucarito 360 68 314 EstacionesSan Juan y Martínez de330 JovellanosSuperficie347 Camilo Cienfuegos 377 Veguitas 319 Stations315 Pinar del Río 331 Jaguey Grande Camaguey Santiago de Cuba 316 La24 Palma Agrometeorologicas332 Colón 350 Florida 363 Contramaestre 317 Paso Real de San Diego333 Playa Girón 351 Santa Cruz del Sur 364 Universidad 1 Upper318 Bahía Honda Air SoundingCienfuegos 352 Esmeralda Guantánamo Ciudad12 de la HabanaContaminacion335 Aguada de Pasajeros 353 Nuevitas 319 Valle de Caujerí y La Habana 344 Cantarrana 354 Palo Seco 334 Yateras Station325 Casablanca6 RadiacionVilla Clara Solar 355 Camaguey 356 Jamal 373 Santiago de las Vegas 326 Santo Domingo Las Tunas 368 Guantánamo 320 Guira de Melena 338 Sagua La Grande 357 Las Tunas 369 Punta Maisí 1 High7 322 Batabanó Radares Resolution343 El Yabú 358 Puerto padre Isla de la Juventud 323 Guines 348 Caibarién Holguín 309 Amistad Cuba-Francia 2 340 Bainoa AerologicasSancti Spíritus 362 La Jíquima 321 La Fé Satellite374 Tapaste Earth337 Trinidad Station365 Punta Lucrecia 375 Melena del Sur 341 El Jíbaro 370 Guaro 1 376 Bauta Lidar 342 Tópes de Collantes 371 Pinares de Mayarí 349 Sancti Spíritus 372 Pedagógico 378 Velazco NATIONALNATIONAL METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL TELECOMMUNICATIONTELECOMMUNICATION CENTROS METEOROLOGICOSNETWORKNETWORK PROVINCIALES ININ CUBACUBA

Casablanca Matanzas

Pinar de Río Santa Clara

Cienfuegos Nueva Gerona Sancti Spiritus Ciego de Avila

Camaguey

Holguín Las Tunas Bayamo Guantánamo NATIONALNATIONAL CENTERCENTER Santiago de Cuba PROVINCIALPROVINCIAL CENTERCENTER

TCPTCP // IPIP LINKLINK NMTNNMTN digitallydigitally provides provides all all relevant relevant exchangeexchange of of meteorological meteorological information information in in thethe Country Country DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING DATA FLOW, PROCESSING AND FORECASTING

RegionalRegional NationalNational Data Data DataData

MetMet stations stations AircraftsAircrafts SatellitesSatellites ShipsShips NATIONALNATIONAL BouysBouys MODELMODEL REGIONALREGIONAL MODELMODEL GlobalGlobal DataData GLOBALGLOBAL MODELMODEL RARA IVIV REGIONREGION EXTERNALEXTERNAL GRIDGRID

CUBACUBA REGIONREGION GRIDGRID

Cuba`sCuba`s MM5v3 MM5v3 adapted adapted forecast forecast areas areas MM5v3MM5v3 External External Grid Grid 72 72 hrhr Forecast Forecast – – Hurricane Hurricane “Charley”“Charley” MM5v3MM5v3 Inner Inner Grid Grid 72 72 hrhr Forecast Forecast – – Hurricane Hurricane “Charley”“Charley” DifferentDifferent Runs Runs ofof Track Track ForecastForecast in in HurricaneHurricane “Charley”“Charley” RADARRADAR NETWORKNETWORK COVERAGECOVERAGE ININ CUBACUBA

88 MeteorologicalMeteorological Radars Radars coverscovers the the entire entire Country Country RADARRADAR NETWORKNETWORK COVERAGECOVERAGE ININ CUBACUBA Range in each Radar: Qualitatively: 450 - 500 km. Quantitatively: 150 km. RADARRADAR DATADATA NETWORKNETWORK ININ CUBACUBA

NationalNational Meteorological Meteorological CenterCenter

NationalNational Radar Radar CenterCenter 88 MeteorologicalMeteorological Radars Radars coverscovers the the entire entire Country Country Civil Civil Civil Defense Defense Defense IPIP SHSH ERR NNEE RRTT

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G G G

N N N HAZARD, A STRONG HAZARD, A STRONG HAZARD, A STRONG

O O O

R R TO FACE THE HURRICANE R TO FACE THE HURRICANE

TO FACE THE HURRICANE

PARTNERSHIP HAVE BEEN PARTNERSHIP HAVE BEEN PARTNERSHIP HAVE BEEN BUILT AMONG THE NMC,THE

BUILT AMONG THE NMC,THE BUILT AMONG THE NMC,THE

ST ST ST CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA National Meteorological Center National Meteorological Center National Meteorological Center The The The Media Media Media NATIONALNATIONAL METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL CENTERCENTER (NMC)(NMC) •••CubanCubanCuban NMSNMS usesuses anan useruseruser-oriented--orientedoriented philosophy,philosophy, asas emphasizedemphasized byby WMOWMO PWSPWS Program.Program. •••CubanCubanCuban NMSNMS hashas aa reputationreputation ofof accuracy,accuracy, reliabilityreliability andand timeliness.timeliness. •••EarlyEarlyEarly WarningsWarnings andand WarningsWarnings areare issuedissued withwith aa clear,clear, conciseconcise wording,wording, withwith aa widewide useuse ofof graphicsgraphics andand thethe introductionintroduction ofof probabilitiesprobabilities toto addressaddress incertitude.incertitude. CIVIL DEFENSE & GOVERNMENT MEDIA TheyThey receivereceive aa clearclear TheThe MediaMedia isis anan effectiveeffective messagemessage soso thatthat theythey cancan linklink betweenbetween thethe NMS,NMS, adviceadvice toto taketake protectiveprotective andand thethe community,community, measuresmeasures suchsuch asas havinghaving aa strongstrong influenceinfluence evacuation,evacuation, wellwell aheadahead ofof inin howhow aa warningwarning isis thethe impact.impact. receivedreceived OUTPUTOUTPUT OFOF WATCHESWATCHES ANDAND WARNINGSWARNINGS NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

Civil Defense & Media Government

Through CD and To the General Public through Government Radio & TV, broadcasting Network to all CD “live” from the National and Government Meteorological Center authorities in all provinces and municipalities INFORMATIONINFORMATION BYBY METEOROLOGISTSMETEOROLOGISTS ONON TELEVISIONTELEVISION INSMETINSMET SITESITE ONON THETHE WEBWEB rrrr

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httphttphttp://www.insmet.cu://://www.insmet.cuwww.insmet.cu MosaicMosaic RadarRadar AnimationAnimation ofof HurricaneHurricane “Dennis”“Dennis” shownshown onon TVTV andand throughthrough thethe WebWeb onon JulyJuly 2005 2005 http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/

CUBACUBA

TROPICALTROPICAL CYCLONECYCLONE FORECASTFORECAST CENTERSCENTERS POSITIVEPOSITIVE EXPERIENCESEXPERIENCES Name Year Category Casualties Lili 1996 H2 0 Georges 1998 H1 6 Irene 1999 TT 2 Michelle 2001 H4 5 Isidore 2002 H1 0 Lili 2002 H2 1 Charley 2004 H3 4 Ivan 2004 H5 0 Dennis 2005 H4 16 AVERAGE 10 years 9 Trp. Cycl. 3.77 CubanCubanexperience experienceshows showsthat that,, inin spitespiteof ofthe thehurricane hurricane hazardhazard,, aa fastfastflow flowof ofcrucial crucial informationinformation,, aa goodgood forecastforecastsystem systemand andthe thefull full coordinationcoordinationwith withthe theCivil Civil DefenseDefenseand andthe theMedia, Media, plusplus thethefast fastdistribution distributionof of relevantrelevantinformation informationto toall allinterests interests,, asas wellwellas as PoliticalPolitical WillWill,, havehaveled ledto togreat greatsaving savingof ofHuman Human liveslivesin in thethelast last 1010 yearsyears Thank you ! ¡¡ GraciasGracias !! 谢谢谢谢 !!

DrDr JoséJosé RubieraRubiera DirectorDirector NationalNational ForecastForecast CenterCenter InstitutoInstituto de de MeteorologíaMeteorología (INSMET) (INSMET) Havana,Havana, CUBA.CUBA. INSMET,INSMET, CUBACUBA [email protected]@insmet.cu