Sensitivity: General Bay of Plenty Regional Freight Flows Study Prepared for UFTI and the Bay of Plenty Regional Council Prepared by Beca, Richard Paling and Murray King 09 February 2020 UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study | 3812261 | NZ1-16516613-2 0.2 | 31 October 2019 | 1 Sensitivity: General | UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study| Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 3 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 8 1.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................................ 8 1.2 Study Aim and Methodology ............................................................................................................ 8 2 Stakeholder Interviews ...................................................................................... 9 3 Current Freight Flows ..................................................................................... 10 3.2 Freight Routes ............................................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Key Commodity Movements .......................................................................................................... 14 4 Possible Future Freight Flows in BAU Scenario .......................................... 25 4.1 Linkages between GDP and freight growth ................................................................................... 25 4.2 Inter-regional flows ........................................................................................................................ 28 5 Impacts of Possible Disruptors ...................................................................... 34 5.1 Eastern Bay of Plenty Considerations ........................................................................................... 34 5.2 Other disruptors ............................................................................................................................. 38 6 Rail Transport .................................................................................................. 40 6.1 The rail environment ...................................................................................................................... 40 6.2 The Future of Rail Review ............................................................................................................. 40 6.3 Capacity of the Rail Network ......................................................................................................... 41 6.4 Significant growth in general freight production and movement.................................................... 45 7 Possible Transport Model Considerations ................................................... 45 8 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 47 Appendices Appendix A – Report Maps Appendix B – Notes from Stakeholder Meetings Appendix C – Freight Data UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study | 3812261 | NZ1-16516613-2 0.2 | 31 October 2019 | i Sensitivity: General | UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study| Revision History Revision Nº Prepared By Description Date 1 Krishan Singh, Richard Draft 31 October 2019 Paling, Murray King 2 Craig Richards, Richards Final Draft 28 November 2019 Paling 3 Craig Richards Final 09 February 2020 Document Acceptance Action Name Signed Date Prepared by Krishan Singh, Richard 30 October 2019 Paling, Murray King Reviewed by Craig Richards 31 October 2019 Approved by Craig Richards 31 October 2019 on behalf of Beca Limited © Beca 2019 (unless Beca has expressly agreed otherwise with the Client in writing). This report has been prepared by Beca on the specific instructions of our Client. It is solely for our Client’s use for the purpose for which it is intended in accordance with the agreed scope of work. Any use or reliance by any person contrary to the above, to which Beca has not given its prior written consent, is at that person's own risk. UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study | 3812261 | NZ1-16516613-2 0.2 | 31 October 2019 | ii Sensitivity: General | Executive Summary | Executive Summary This report has been prepared by Beca, Richard Paling Consulting and Murray King & Francis Small Consultancy to inform the Urban Form and Transport Initiative (UFTI) about volumes and movement of key freight commodities within the Western Bay of Plenty and wider Bay of Plenty region. The report also considers future scenarios to examine how freight movement could change in the region and what impact this could have on the transport system. The specific scope of the study is to provide data on current and projected future freight flows (road and rail) to, from and through the Bay of Plenty and western Bay of Plenty sub-region (origins, destinations and magnitude). Answers to key questions were also sought to provide analytical insights to assist with the future modelling of scenarios in the Tauranga Transport Model (TTM). Existing Freight Movements The Bay of Plenty State Highway network provides the key road connections for freight movement across the Bay of Plenty with much of the inter-regional freight movement focussed on the Port of Tauranga, reflecting the significant role that the Port has on the economic productivity of the wider region. The following heat map shows the key freight corridors by volume with thick black lines representing the highest freight volume corridors. All maps in this report are provided at A3 scale in Appendix A. The following map shows the volume of heavy goods vehicles on the State Highway network and the growth at each location in the last five years. While all sites have experienced growth in goods vehicle movements the growth has been particularly high on the main routes into Tauranga (SH2 and SH29) and within UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study | 3812261 | NZ1-16516613-2 0.2 | 31 October 2019 | 3 Sensitivity: General | Executive Summary | Tauranga where goods vehicle movements on Takitimu Drive1 have grown by 41% in five years. This is likely to be influenced by the strong growth in the Tauriko Business Estate along with growth in movements to/from the Waikato and Rotorua. The next map shows the key commodities shifted by corridor in the region. Logs and timber products contribute significantly to freight movements on SH2 north and south of Tauranga. Other key commodities moved in the region include kiwifruit, manufactured goods, building materials and fertilizer. 1 Recorded at the toll gantry UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study | 3812261 | NZ1-16516613-2 0.2 | 31 October 2019 | 4 Sensitivity: General | Executive Summary | Predicted Change in Freight Movements The following table shows the predicted change in major commodity flows to and from the Bay of Plenty between 2018 and 2043 (25 years). Raw data used to inform future freight projections is provided in Appendix C. In general, there is larger increases in logs and timber products, building materials and manufactured goods and reductions in dairy movements. It should be noted that this covers selected longer distance commodity flows only and these would be supplemented by shorter distance flows of other commodities and the effects of more complex supply chains. UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study | 3812261 | NZ1-16516613-2 0.2 | 31 October 2019 | 5 Sensitivity: General | Executive Summary | Reflecting the traffic flows not included in the previous table, increases freight movement are more significant when freight generated within the Bay of Plenty are included in the volumes. The following graph and map show key commercial vehicle growth by corridor between 2017 and 2043. Stakeholder interviews identified significant growth in kiwifruit production and movement with potential for a 50% increase in production over the next 10 years. This growth will be dispersed, and transport of kiwifruit is expected to remain largely by road given the varied location of orchards and packhouses in the region. Kiwifruit transport is not particularly time constrained, with a three day window typical for moving fruit to the port, but the limited availability of truck drivers with drivers not allowed or willing to work at night means the bulk of kiwifruit movements occur during the day. UFTI Regional Freight Flows Study | 3812261 | NZ1-16516613-2 0.2 | 31 October 2019 | 6 Sensitivity: General | Executive Summary | Possible Disruptors to Business as Usual Freight Growth Potential significant disruptors to freight movements considered in this study include2: ● The growth of aquaculture in Opotiki could increase truck movements on SH2 to the east by up to about 10 per day a relatively small increase on the total flows, although the way in which the product is to be processed and the location of any processing plant are yet to be determined. ● The proposed growth in high value horticulture would also have some impact on traffic flows but again the effects of this are likely to be small. ● Increase in water bottling plants in the eastern bay could increase truck movements particularly on SH2. The Otakiri Water Bottling plant proposes peak truck movements of up to 200 per day, however this application is still before the Environment Court. ● The Kawerau container terminal could result in a shift to rail reducing some truck movements into Tauranga from Kawerau and areas to the east. It may also attract some additional