The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

Report on new survey of Republicans

February 2016 Methodology

National Web-Survey of 800 Likely 2016 Republican Voters. This survey took place February 11- 16, 2016. Likely voters were determined based on whether they voted in 2012 or registered since and stated intention of voting in 2016. Data shown in this deck is among those who identify as Republicans or independents who lean Republican and vote in Republican primaries or caucuses. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.47 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups.

Republican Party Project typology. The 5 categories of Republicans are mutually exclusive categories determined by respondents’ responses on ideology, religion, frequency of service attendance, strength of Tea Party support and favorability towards the Tea Party. To ensure that the web-survey accurately reflects the national Republican Party, the typologies were weighted to the average for each type from Democracy Corps’ last three national surveys.

Factor analysis. A factor analysis was conducted using principal-components analysis on the thermometer and agree/disagree responses, while also trying the principal factors and maximum likelihood methods to check the results. The most prominent factors from each analysis were used to compute factors scores. The PCA results retained 9 factors with eigenvalues greater than 1. Cumulatively, the 9 retained factors explain 64.1% of the variance in the feeling thermometers and attitudinal questions.

Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of explanatory variables (candidate doubts/Democratic & Republican messages) on outcome variables (presidential revote, stated likelihood of voting for candidate, and electability), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for a hypothetical shift in explanatory variables, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results. Instead, the hypothetical shifts described here and included in the results section provide information about how closely each explanatory variable is linked to the specified outcome.

1 Key findings

 The explosive civil war inside the GOP can move significant votes out of the Republican camp – and this poll is a start.

 Trump is poised to win the nomination because of his strong Tea Party and working class base and because he competes among the Evangelicals AND Moderates. Cruz has faltered because he is not liked by Observant Catholics. Rubio is faltering because his hard pro-life stance blocks gains with Moderates.

 What unites today’s Republican Party is: 1. Fundamental opposition to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Obamacare, and the Democrats who are socialists that threaten the Constitution; 2. Opposition to immigration & growing foreign presence in a more racially diverse America; 3. Skepticism about government regulations; 4. Belief in a strong military.

2 Key findings, cont.

 The GOP is threatened first by a revolt among the Moderates who form 30 percent of the Republican Party base. They are heavily college-educated and accept the sexual revolution. They believe most abortions should be legal & dislike the pro-life groups. They say stop trying to fight gay marriage. They are conservative, but not as ideological as the others.

 The GOP is threatened by a huge crack that runs right down the middle of the GOP that separates the Tea Party & Evangelicals (47 percent) from Moderates & Observant Catholics (45 percent). These are the issues that fracture the party: 1. Moderate/Catholic bloc believes government should help with healthcare & the free market needs regulation; not the Tea Party/Evangelical bloc; 2. The Moderate led bloc believes facts & science on climate change; not the Tea Party led bloc; 3. The Moderate led bloc is anti-N.R.A; not the Tea Party led bloc.

3 Key findings, cont.

 The Trump race in particular already pushes 20 percent of Republicans to say they are uncertain what they will do, including one-quarter of Catholics and one-third of Moderates. The Party is poised to shed voters. After attacks & messages, the Trump vote drops 14 points among Catholics & among the Moderates, the Trump margin against Hillary drops 9 points.

 The strongest attacks on Trump are that he is an ego-maniac that is for himself, not the country; disrespectful of women; can’t be trusted with nuclear weapons; and denies America a clean energy future.

 The strongest Democratic messages that shift Catholics & Moderates are long-term investment in modernizing America; getting CEOs and corporations to focus on investment, not stock prices; stop fighting social issues and trying to turn back the clock so we can address the country’s problems.

 This civil war has consequences and this poll gives people the tools they need to plan their strategy and campaigns.

4 THE GOP BASE

5 The Republican base Establishment Tea Party 8% 17%

Moderate 31%

Evangelical 30% Observant Catholic 14%

6 About the RPP Segments

Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic 17% 30% 31% 14%

Tea Party: Evangelicals: Observant Catholic: Moderate:

63% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 33% Strong Republican

66% working class 63% working class 63% working class 66% college educated

75% married 74% married 58% unmarried 64% married

62% male 51% male 55% male 52% female

36% live in Conservative 46% live in Expanded Heartland East Coast

7 GOP PRIMARY

8 Trump dominates primary vote choice

Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

Primary Vote Choice

18 17

12 8 9

3 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure

9 No evidence any candidate considered more electable than Trump

Regardless of who you are supporting for president, which of the Republican candidates for president has the best chance of defeating the Democratic candidate in November? Best Chance in November

21 17 18

6 2 1

Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure

10 Trump's base is in the Tea Party bloc Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

50 Primary Vote Choice Tea Party

12 7 4 0 2 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure

11 Trump and Cruz are splitting the Evangelical vote

Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Evangelicals

30 30

17 17

2 2 3 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure

12 Catholic vote split between Kasich, Trump and Rubio Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Observant Catholic

28 25 21

7 2 1

Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure

13 Moderates vote fragmented, with Trump more than competitive Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Moderates

24 21 18 17

10 6 4 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure

14 Trump’s support starts with working class base Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Working Class v. College Educated

24 25 18 18 15 11 10 11 8 9 3 3 7

Non College Non College Non College Non College Non College Non College Non College College College College College College College College

Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure

15 Men’s preference for Trump drives up his margins Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Men v. Women

19 18 17 16 14 13 11 10 2 7 4 5 Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women

Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure

16 WHAT DO REPUBLICANS BELIEVE?

17 The factors that underlie GOP attitudes: anti-Democratic twice as powerful as pro-Republican factor

% of responses explained by each variable

23.81

10.29 5.78 4.68 3.72 2.87 2.58 2.29 2.14 Dem. Leaders, GOP Leaders & Trump, anti- Conservative Attitudes towards Role of Attitudes towards Free market Populism & Party, Policies Party immgration, attitude on social women, government minorities, economic community populism, issues minorities, and immigrants, attitudes environmentalism politicians women, Kasich & associated with Bush them

18 Dominant underlying dimension is anti-Obama, Clinton, Democrats, and their threat to constitution

FACTOR 1: Democratic leaders & Democrats generally

Explains 23.81% of Responses

5.81 4.81 4.76 4.68 4.44 3.97 3.75 3.74

Barack Obama Democratic Party Constitution under Hillary Clinton Affordable Care Democratic policies Nancy Pelosi Bernie Sanders daily attack by Act/Obamacare so misguided they Obama Admin. threaten the country

19 Hillary Clinton now viewed more negatively than Obama

Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: Mean: 7.1 8.2 15.3 13.5 16.6 19.6 Net: -94 Net: -89 Net: -89 Net: -84 Net: -79 Net: -68

6 6 10 1 1 1

72 73 66 89 84 80

78 85 90 90 90 95

Hillary Barack Bernie Nancy Pelosi Dem Party Bill Clinton Clinton Obama Sanders

20 Important underlying dimension defined by Trump and immigration

FACTOR 3: Trump, opposition to non-English speaking immigrants, support for taxing the rich and environmentalism Explains 5.78% of Responses

9.10 8.10 6.94 6.59 6.46

Donald Trump It bothers me when Rich should pay more taxes Measures to address global Measures to protect immigrants don't speak warming environment English

21 Reject evidence & facts on immigration more than any other subject

Below are some things reported in the paper and on the news. For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda. Definitely true Definitely the liberal media NET Net migration from Mexico has been zero or less since 2005, the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants in -23 -6 39 77 +54 the U.S. has declined to 1.3 million since 2007.

Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists -41 -9 28 59 +18 agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change. States that have passed laws closing loopholes at gun shows some people use to get around background checks have seen 40 percent fewer cases of fatal -43 -5 28 57 +14 domestic violence incidence and 40 percent fewer police killed on duty.

Women on average make 77 cents for every dollar a -74 -20 10 26 man makes. -48

22 WHAT ISSUES & VALUES UNITE ALL GOP FACTIONS?

23 What unites the GOP? Democrats a threat to the nation • Disdain for its leaders, starting with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama • The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being.

Democrats are socialists • Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic Party and socialism. • Disdain for Obamacare.

Bothered by non-English speaking immigrants & foreign born • It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English. • Want a nominee who will fight against the fact that: 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities.

Strong military key • The best way to ensure peace is through military strength.

Constitution threatened • The Constitution is under daily attack by the Obama Administration.

Regulation harmful • Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good.

24 Socialist Democrats threaten nation's well-being: all factions believe Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they Party and socialism. threaten the nation's well-being.

Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET NET

All Republicans -21 34 79 +58 All Republicans -12 58 88 +76

Tea Party -8 56 92 +84 Tea Party -4 73 96 +92

Evangelical -18 45 82 +64 Evangelical -7 73 93 +86

Observant Catholic -22 -4 17 78 +56 Observant Catholic -8 42 92 +84

Moderate -36 -6 15 64 +28 Moderate -24 -5 38 76 +52

25 Bothered by non-English speaking immigrants, want a nominee to Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, fight illegal immigration please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues.

It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and speak little or no English the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly Fight strongly Accept strongly NET NET

All Republicans -34 -10 29 66 +32 All Republicans -87 -67 4 13 -74

Tea Party -18 -7 36 82 +64 Tea Party -96 -76 4 -92

Evangelical -36 -8 26 64 +28 Evangelical -95 -74 5 -90

Observant Catholic -47 -9 26 53 +6 Observant Catholic -91 -74 4 9 -82

Moderate -41 -16 26 59 +18 Moderate -71 -46 9 29 -42

26 All GOP factions agree on peace through strength

Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

The best way to ensure peace is through military strength.

Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET

All Republicans -17 37 83 +66

Tea Party -12 -6 63 88 +76

Evangelical -9 -3 38 91 +82

Observant Catholic -33 14 67 +34

Moderate -16 33 84 +68

27 Consensus that Constitution is under attack

Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

The Constitution is under daily attack by the Obama Administration.

Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET

All Republicans -14 -3 62 86 +72

Tea Party -5 -3 85 95 +90

Evangelical -10 -2 72 90 +80

Observant Catholic -23 53 77 +54

Moderate -20 -7 41 80 +60

28 GOP consensus that regulation does more harm than good

Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good.

Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET

All Republicans -13 36 87 +74

Tea Party -13 54 87 +74

Evangelical -6 39 94 +88

Observant Catholic -7 15 93 +86

Moderate -24 31 76 +52

29 GOP CIVIL WAR: BEGINS WITH MODERATES

30 Two-thirds of Moderates believe that abortion should be legal in most cases Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? Legal in all cases Illegal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases

+26 +88 +12 +30 94

63 65 56 44 37 35 51 20 6 24 16 13 11 7 Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

31 GOP attitudes strongly gravitate around attitudes towards homosexuality and abortion

FACTOR 4: Conservative attitudes on social issues Explains 4.68% of Responses

18.04 16.09 14.66 9.59 7.00

Homosexuality should Gay marriage Abotion should be Pro-life groups Planned Parenthood be discouraged illegal in all cases

32 Moderates hostile to pro-life groups and for Planned Parenthood

% Favorable % Unfavorable

89 77 74 71

50 52 44 84 29 66 70 64 41 30 37 13

Tea Party Evangelical Observant Moderate Tea Party Evangelical Observant Moderate Catholic Catholic

Pro-life groups Planned Parenthood

33 Only Moderates accept sexual revolution and pre-marital sex

Many Republicans think the country is off on the wrong track. Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues.

Women and men feel free to have sex without any interest in getting married, forming a family or a long-term relationship.

Fight strongly Accept strongly NET

All Republicans -44 -18 30 56 +12

Tea Party -50 -19 27 50 --

Evangelical -72 -32 12 27 -45

Observant Catholic -67 -23 17 33 -34

Moderate -14 -5 47 86 +72

34 Moderates isolated in GOP by their lack of negativity towards gay marriage Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Unfavorable

86 78

83 37 74 57 30

Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

Gay Marriage

35 Moderates want to accept homosexuality and gay marriage, not discourage and fight it For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues.

Homosexuality should be discouraged by society. Gay marriage is now legal in the U.S.

Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly Fight strongly Accept strongly NET NET

All Republicans -50 -26 29 50 -- All Republicans -53 -39 27 46 -7

Tea Party -42 -11 23 58 +16 Tea Party -43 -34 22 57 +14

Evangelical -28 -14 54 72 +44 Evangelical -81 -64 12 19 -62

Observant Catholic -51 -30 32 49 -2 Observant Catholic -70 -47 20 30 -40

Moderate -73 -45 8 26 -47 Moderate -24 -13 51 75 +51

36 Moderates don’t seek communities with shared political values

Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

It's important to me to live in a place where most people share my political views.

Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET

All Republicans -58 -11 7 42 -16

Tea Party -52 -11 4 48 -4

Evangelical -49 -8 10 51 +2

Observant Catholic -35 -1 16 65 +30

Moderate -77 -20 4 23 -54

37 Moderate stand apart on climate change and environmental protection Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

Because the earth is getting warmer because of what There needs to be stricter laws and regulations to protect humans are doing, we need to begin taking serious the environment. measures to address global warming. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET NET

All Republicans -54 -28 11 46 -8 All Republicans -57 -21 7 43 -14

Tea Party -59 -34 11 41 -18 Tea Party -67 -27 3 33 -34

Evangelical -69 -43 31 -38 Evangelical -67 -29 2 33 -34

Observant Catholic -52 -16 18 48 -4 Observant Catholic -54 -11 18 46 -8

Moderate -36 -12 15 64 +28 Moderate -38 -108 62 +24

38 Moderates don't rally to Scalia Supreme Court replacement Below is a statement by a Republican candidate about the country. Please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Republican candidate who says it. SCALIA: Everything we believe in is at stake in this election. Justice Scalia's death means that voters in November will decide whether Democrats or Republicans will control the White House, the Supreme Court and the U.S. Senate. Liberals really could be fully in control and unions could get more power, business could face suffocating regulation, we could lose the right to bear arms, abortions could be available without restrictions and the president’s illegal executive action on amnesty could go forward. We must unify as a Party to win in November. Much more likely

All Republicans 41 70

Tea Party ‘ 66 81

Evangelical 55 78

Observant Catholic ‘ 37 73

Moderate 24 57

39 GOP CIVIL WAR: TEA PARTY & EVANGELICALS vs. MODERATES & CATHOLICS

40 Free market and low taxes win support from Tea Party and Evangelicals, but not so much Moderates & Catholics Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it.

A free market economy needs government regulation in People making over $250,000 a year should pay a lot more order to best serve the public interest. in taxes.

Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET NET

All Republicans -63 -16 3 37 -26 All Republicans -60 -27 12 40 -20

Tea Party -78 -25 4 22 -56 Tea Party -62 -31 6 38 -24

Evangelical -76 -22 24 -52 Evangelical -72 -32 10 28 -44

Observant Catholic -33 -8 9 67 +34 Observant Catholic -44 -27 24 56 +12

Moderate -55 -10 45 -10 Moderate -53 -16 11 47 -6

41 Tea Party & Evangelicals reject climate change consensus, not so with Catholics & Moderates Below are some things reported in the paper and on the news. For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda.

Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change. Definitely just the liberal media Definitely true NET

All Republicans -59 -28 9 41 -18

Tea Party -77 -53 9 23 -54

Evangelical -73 -31 5 26 -47

Observant Catholic -48 -12 10 52 +4

Moderate -35 -14 14 65 +30

42 Moderates & Catholics not fans of N.R.A

82 70

39 39 62 53 26 23

Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

N.R.A

43 GOP CIVIL WAR PRESENTS IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES

44 Trump pushes 20 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? TOTAL

Other Not Sure Won’t Vote

83 84 76

20 3 7 9 9 5 2 10 4 3 8 3 7 5 Trump Clinton Other/ Cruz Clinton Other/ Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't DK/Won't DK/Won't Vote Vote Vote

45 Observant Catholics: Trump pushes uncertain to 24 percent, Cruz pushes 21percent to Clinton Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? Observant Catholic

Other Not Sure Won’t Vote

70 69 66

8 13 21 12 19 6 12 7 7 3 4 4 2 2 Trump Clinton Other/ Cruz Clinton Other/ Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't DK/Won't DK/Won't Vote Vote Vote

46 Moderates: Trump pushes 30 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? Moderates

Other Not Sure Won’t Vote

71 60

30 3 12 15 1 14 8 5 15 12 10 2 6 3 Trump Clinton Other/ Cruz Clinton Other/ Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't DK/Won't DK/Won't Vote Vote Vote

47 Strongest attacks on Trump are ego, views of women, and security

Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Donald Trump in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump?

ATTACKS ON DONALD TRUMP Very serious doubts

EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power 24 46 and fame than helping the country.

WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women. 20 34

NATIONAL SECURITY: He is not qualified to deal with national security issues and 19 39 shouldn't be trusted with our nuclear weapons.

BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change 12 25 when clean energy is America's future.

ANTI-TRADE: His America First economic policies and opposition to all global trade agreements means American business will lose out and America will be less competitive 10 27 in the world.

48 Abortion position most worrisome about Rubio

Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Marco Rubio in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Marco Rubio?

ATTACKS ON MARCO RUBIO Very serious doubts

ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and 20 36 incest.

GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court 19 30 justices that would end marriage equality.

WEAK: He is too weak to stand up to our adversaries, like Vladimir Putin. 16 33

INEXPERIENCED: He is a junior U.S. Senator with no executive experience and could be 13 32 another Obama.

BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change, even though Florida is already paying the price of extreme weather and even though it 8 23 denies Florida the benefit of clean energy.

49 Attacks lead 25% to pull away from Trump but 30 percent pull off from Cruz and Rubio After reading these doubts about [Republican Candidate], how much less likely are you to vote for [Republican Candidate] in a race against Hillary Clinton? Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely

75 69 70

31 30 25 14 9 10 9 8 9 12 7 8 Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely

Trump Cruz Rubio

50 For moderates, top attacks are abortion, gay marriage and Belowwomen is a list of Moderates reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for [Republican candidate] in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about [Republican candidate]? MODERATES

TRUMP DOUBTS Very serious doubts EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power and fame than helping 37 56 the country. WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women. 33 53 IMMIGRANTS: He would expel millions of undocumented immigrants and is intolerant of immigrants, Hispanics, Muslims, and people who look different. 31 46 CRUZ DOUBTS PRO-LIFE: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest, and is fighting to defund Planned Parenthood. 45 59 ANTI-GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. 30 51 GRIDLOCK WORSE: He is so ideological and uncompromising that he led to the shutdown of the federal government 27 56 and will make gridlock worse. RUBIO DOUBTS

ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest. 36 57 GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would 27 45 end marriage equality. DEPENDENCY: He is the only GOP presidential candidate who wants to spend $1 trillion on new tax credits for 21 49 the poor that will create just more dependency.

51 America first economic policies and big oil produced opposition to clean energy future shift vote away

IMPACT OF TRUMP DOUBTS ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE

82: Big oil-Clean energy

52 Catholics most receptive to criticisms about Rubio After reading these doubts about Marco Rubio, how much less likely are you to vote for Marco Rubio in a race against Hillary Clinton? IMPACT OF DOUBTS ON VOTE FOR MARCO RUBIO Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely

68 67 60

40 32 7 33

11 10 15 20 6 9 5 15 22 14 9 2 Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

53 WINNING DISCONTENTED GOP VOTERS

54 Infrastructure, CEO governance, billionaire donors top themes Below are some statements by a Democratic candidate about the country. For each statement, please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Democratic candidate who says it. INVESTMENT: We have been too focused on short-term fixes when our country should be making long-term Much more likely investments so America can lead in the 21st century. We should make sure we get our money's worth for all government spending, and we know national public investments pay off. Lincoln built the transcontinental 14 17 27 58 railroad; Eisenhower built the interstate highway system. Today, America must modernize our infrastructure, expand our energy and Internet grid and ensure we lead in all scientific research. CORPORATIONS: CEOs and senior corporate management have let down their own companies, employees, and America. They jacked up their compensation while outsourcing jobs and avoided paying taxes by moving their corporate headquarters overseas. And they stopped investing in research, innovation and their own work force. 13 16 19 48 We should change the rules around CEO pay so they profit from long-term investment in innovation and skill training, not from inflating stock prices. CAMPAIGN MONEY: Billionaires and corporate donors are spending millions of dollars on secret campaign contributions to buy politicians and make sure government works for them, not you. It is time to reduce the 11 14 23 48 toxic influence of money in politics and fight for a new way of funding campaigns that amplifies the voices of everyday Americans so democracy works for all of us.

BEYOND SOCIAL ISSUES: So many leaders are determined to turn back the clock on social issues that are settled for the rest of the country. Leave Planned Parenthood alone, allow women to get contraceptive 10 13 11 34 coverage, and accept that same sex marriages are now legal. Let's start addressing our country's problems.

WORKING WOMEN: Women today are working as much as men, and our policies need to catch up to the modern family where many women are on their own. Its time women get equal pay with men, help with 9 14 26 49 childcare, and paid sick days and family leave.

CLIMATE: So many leaders are stuck in the past, denying climate change and supporting the agenda of the big oil and coal companies. That's hurting the country. American technology and innovation has driven down the 6 9 12 27 price of solar power by 80 percent and now creates 8 times more new jobs a year than old energy. America's economic future lies with building a new, clean energy economy. 55 Moving beyond social issues and infrastructure investment have greatest impact on voting for Clinton over Trump IMPACT OF MESSAGES ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE

113: (DEM) Beyond Social Issues

56 Attacks, Democratic messages dislodge Catholics & Moderates Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Trump v. Clinton Trump Clinton Other Not sure Won’t Vote

-4 +6 +3 ------14 -- +14 -5 +4 --

91 87 84 84

70 60 56 55 38 7 30 30 24 10 3 3 15 15 8 12 10 9 12 5 3 6 12 21 14 17 7 15 1 10 8 1 1 7 9 6 6 4 10

Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

57 WORLD NEW YORK EUROPEAN CANADIAN HEADQUARTERS HEADQUARTERS HEADQUARTERS HEADQUARTERS Greenberg Quinlan Greenberg Quinlan Greenberg Quinlan Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Rosner Rosner Rosner 10 G Street, NE 25 Broadway 22 Bloomsbury Sq. 350-1 First Canadian Suite 500 9th Floor London, UK WC1A 2NS Place Washington, DC 20002 New York, NY 10004 Toronto Board of Trade T: +44 (0)20 3740 9029 Tower Phone: +1 202 478 8300 T: (212) 231 0050 Toronto, ON M5K 1C1 Fax: +1 202 478 8301 Phone: +54 11 4772 0813