Florida Presidential Primary Survey March 2016 Methodology

Sample 450 Republican likely presidential primary voters Dates of Interviews March 2nd - March 5th Languages of Interviews English, Spanish Margin of Error +/- 4.6 Percentage Points

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 2 ELECTORAL MOTIVATION Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

93%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30% 5% 20% 2% 10%

0% Wrong Track Right Direction Don't know/No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 4 Which one of the following issues will be the MOST important in deciding your vote for President in November 2016?

45% 43%

40%

35%

30% 27%

25%

20%

15% 8% 10% 7% 6% 3% 2% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% Jobs and the Terrorism Foreign Policy Healthcare Immigration Education Global Climate Same Sex Other Don't economy Change Marriage know/No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 5 CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Very/Somewhat favorable opinion 21% 36% 57%

Somewhat/Very unfavorable opinion 18% 17% 35%

Do not recognize 2%

6% No answer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 7

Very/Somewhat favorable opinion 27% 30% 57%

Somewhat/Very unfavorable opinion 15% 24% 39%

4% No answer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 8

Very/Somewhat favorable opinion 28% 34% 62%

18% Somewhat/Very unfavorable opinion 13% 31%

Do not recognize 1%

6% No answer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 9 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in Florida were held today and the candidates were Ted Cruz, , Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, whom would you support?

38% 40%

35% 31%

30%

25% 19% 20%

15%

10% 7% 4% 5% 1%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz John Kasich Other Don't know/No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 11 If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in Florida were held today and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, whom would you support?

BY GENDER Male Female Donald Trump 42% 35% Marco Rubio 29% 33% Ted Cruz 21% 18% John Kasich 4% 6% Don’t know/No answer 4% 8%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 12 Which candidate would be your 2nd choice?

30%

30% 24% 25%

20% 17% 15% 14% 15%

10%

5%

0% Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Donald Trump John Kasich Don't know/No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 13 Who do you think has a better chance of getting elected president in November 2016? 60%

60%

50%

40%

30% 17% 20% 15% 5% 10% 3%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 14 Who do you think has a better chance of getting elected president in November 2016?

BY EDUCATION Male Female Donald Trump 61% 59% Marco Rubio 19% 15% Ted Cruz 13% 16% Don’t know 3% 7% No answer 4% 3%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 15 If he does not win the Florida Presidential Primary on March 15th, do you believe that Marco Rubio should or should not suspend his campaign for President?

2%

6% Should suspend

33% 59% Should not suspend

Don't know

No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 16 PERSONAL TRAITS Who do you think is more honest and trustworthy?

34% 35% 30%

30%

25% 21%

20%

15% 8% 10% 7%

5%

0% Marco Rubio Donald Trump Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 18 Who do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve as president?

39% 40%

35%

30% 26% 25%

25%

20%

15% 7% 10% 3% 5%

0% Marco Rubio Donald Trump Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 19 Who do you think would do more to bring needed change to Washington?

60% 55%

50%

40%

30% 21% 18% 20% 5% 10% 1%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 20 Who do you think is closer to you on the issues?

39% 40% 32% 35%

30%

25% 21%

20%

15%

10% 4% 4% 5%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 21 Who do you think is closer to you on the issues?

BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 27% 52% 36% Marco Rubio 35% 24% 35% Ted Cruz 27% 15% 23% Don’t know 5% 3% 5% No answer 6% 6% 1%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 22 Who do you trust most to handle the economy?

56% 60%

50%

40%

30% 22% 16% 20%

10% 3% 3%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 23 Who do you trust more to handle immigration issues?

45%

45%

40%

35% 29%

30%

25% 21%

20%

15% 10% 4% 5% 1%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 24 Who do you trust more to handle immigration issues?

BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 38% 54% 43% Marco Rubio 31% 24% 30% Ted Cruz 27% 16% 22% Don’t know 3% 4% 3% No answer 1% 2% 2%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 25 Who do you trust more to handle the threat of terrorism?

45%

45%

40%

35%

30% 25%

25% 21%

20%

15%

10% 6% 3% 5%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Donald Trump Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 26 Who do you trust more to handle the threat of terrorism?

BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 34% 50% 47% Marco Rubio 32% 26% 21% Ted Cruz 23% 15% 24% Don’t know 10% 4% 6% No answer 1% 5% 2%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 27 Who do you trust more to handle healthcare?

40% 36%

35% 29% 30% 23% 25%

20%

15% 7% 10% 5%

5%

0% Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 28 Who do you trust more to handle healthcare?

BY EDUCATION High School Some College College Graduate Donald Trump 29% 44% 35% Marco Rubio 29% 27% 30% Ted Cruz 27% 16% 25% Don’t know 10% 6% 6% No answer 5% 7% 4%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 29 REPUBLICAN U.S. SENATE PRIMARY If the Republican primary for the US Senate seat from Florida were held today and the candidates were Carlos Beruff, Ron DeSantis, , Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Todd Wilcox, for whom would you vote?

80% 74%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20% 6% 6% 5% 7% 10% 2% 0% 0% Carlos Lopez- Ron DeSantis David Jolly Todd Wilcox Carlos Beruff Don't know No answer Cantera

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 31 POLICY SUPPORT With regard to the current opening on the Supreme Court, after President Obama nominates someone do you believe the U.S. Senate should vote on President Obama’s nominee to fill the position or should the Senate delay action on the vacancy until after the next president takes office?

72% 80%

70%

60%

50% Republicans

40% 26%

30% 20% 2% 10%

0% Vote Delay Don't know

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 33 Donald Trump has proposed banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States for the time being. He says this would improve security against terrorism. Others say security would not be improved, and it’s wrong to bar people from the United States because of their religion. What’s your opinion—would you support a ban on Muslims entering the United States or to you this would be the wrong thing to do?

Strongly/Somewhat support 39% 18% 57%

Somewhat/Strongly wrong thing to do 18% 17% 35%

5% Do not recognize

3% No answer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 34 Do you approve or disapproved of President Obama’s plan to visit this month? He’d be the first sitting President to do so in 88 years.

59%

60%

50% 33% 40% Approve Disapprove 30% Don't know 20% 7% No answer 10% 1%

0% Approve Disapprove Don't know No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 35 Overall, do you support or oppose ending the so-called “wet foot, dry foot” policy, which allows Cuban refugees to stay in the U.S. if they reach U.S. soil?

Strongly/Somewhat support 28% 23% 51%

Somewhat/Strongly oppose 15% 25% 40%

Don't know 7%

2% No answer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 36 The United States territory of has announced that it is close to defaulting on $72 billion worth of debt. Overall, do you support or oppose providing financial assistance to help Puerto Rico pay off its debt?

Strongly/Somewhat support 10% 18% 28%

18% Somewhat/Strongly oppose 44% 62%

8% Don't know

No answer 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 37 DEMOGRAPHICS Gender

52%

52%

51%

50% 48% Republicans 49%

48%

47%

46% Male Female

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 39 Age

36% 40% 31% 35%

30% 26%

25% Republicans 20%

15% 7% 10%

5%

0% 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 40 What is the highest level of education that you have completed?

60% 53%

50%

40% 29% 30% Republican

20% 13%

10% 4% 1%

0% Some high school High SchoolTwo-year Graduate/GED college or technical school graduate/SomeCollege graduate college/Associate or higher degree/Bachelor's Degree degreeDon't or higher know/No answer

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 41 The media in Florida generally classifies people as Black, White, Hispanic, Asian or another race, which do you consider yourself to be? 80%

80%

70%

60%

50% Republicans 40% 30% 15% 20% 2% 3% 10%

0% Black White Hispanic Asian/Mixed Race/Other

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 42 Are you of Cuban or Hispanic descent?

85%

90%

80%

70% 60% Republicans 50%

40%

30% 8% 7% 20%

10%

0% Yes, Cuban Yes, Other Hispanic No

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 43 In what country were you born?

89%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50% Republicans

40%

30% 20% 7% 2% 10% 1% 1%

0% United States Cuba Puerto Rico Central/South America, Other/No answer other Hispanic

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 44 In what country or countries were your parents and/or grandparents born?

80%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40% Republicans

30% 16% 20%

10% 1% 1% 2%

0% United States Cuba Puerto Rico Central/South America, Other/No answer other Hispanic

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 45 Language of Interview

94%

100% 90% 80% Republicans 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 6% 20% 10% 0% English Spanish

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 46 Region

25% 25% 22% 20% 20% 16% 17%

15%

Republicans

10%

5%

0% /South Florida South/Central Florida Tampa Bay Area Orlando, Central North Florida Florida/Panhandle

Survey of Florida Presidential Primary Voters March 2016 47 Florida Presidential Primary Survey March 2016

For more information, Fernand R. Amandi please contact: Principal 305.529.9916 [email protected]