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U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

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U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition U.S. AND IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION: Iran’s Perceptions of International Sanctions and their Implications for Strategic Competition with the U.S. in the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – April 2011 By Alexander Wilner July 14, 2011 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] The Burke Chair has compiled a series of chronological reports with the assistance of Adam Seitz of the Marine Corps University that focus on Iranian perceptions of national security and assess Iran’s intentions concerning competition with the US. The most current of these reports is entitled “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran’s Perceptions of its External Relations and their Implications for Strategic competition with the U.S. in the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – April 2011.” Previous versions include “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran’s Perceptions of its External Relations and their Implications for Strategic Competition with the U.S. in the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – May 2011” (http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition- 4), “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran’s Perceptions of its Internal Developments and their Implications for Strategic Competition with the U.S. in the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – March 2011”(http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-3), “U.S and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran's Perceptions of its Ballistic Missile Program and Competition with the US and the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – Feb. 2011,” (http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-2), and “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iranian Views of How Iran’s Asymmetric Warfare Developments Affect Competition with the US and the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – Feb. 2011” (http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-1). The Iranian regime’s economic policies and its response to sanctions imposed on it by the U.S. and the international community provide additional insight into the country’s strategic competition with the U.S. and other states. Since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 and the founding of the Islamic Republic, the dynamic of U.S.-Iranian strategic competition in the Gulf has been marked by economic competition and the imposition of sanctions on Iran by the U.S. and the international community. While Iran cannot hope to directly compete with the U.S. or force the international community to lift sanctions, its responses to the economic challenges presented by sanctions and economic embargoes are a telling indication of Iran’s strategy. These responses reflect the Iran’s attitudes toward competition with the U.S. as well as Iran’s will to continue to confront the international community over issues such as Iran’s nuclear program, support for terrorism, and arms trafficking. The articles in the main body of this report show how the Iranian regime perceives the concerns of the international community, as well as how it intends on confronting sanctions and other economic actions taken against it. Mixed Messages Iran’s messages are not unified. There are contradictions and variations in statements emanating from Iranian officials regarding the effects of sanctions on Iran’s economy as well as how the regime perceives the country’s economic situation. Iranian officials often claim that sanctions have had a beneficial effect on the country in that they have forced innovation and technological development, but at the same time demand that sanctions be lifted before any direct talks or negotiations with the U.S. and other Western countries take place. Additionally, while some Iranian officials have claimed that sanctions have had no negative effect on the nation’s economy, others have cautioned their colleagues that the economic implications are not to be taken lightly. Denial and Non-Denial of the Negative Impact of Sanction The collection of statements in the main report shows that the degree to which sanctions and other external economic pressures affect Iranian economy has become a central theme in Iran’s rhetoric. Some officials claim they have no negative effect, and actually empower Iran by driving innovation and technological advancement, while others acknowledge their deleterious effects. These statements serve to illuminate how Iran perceives competition with the U.S. from an economic perspective. Key members of the Iranian leadership have repeatedly stated that sanctions have no effect on the country’s economy. On November 13, 2010, the Secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaei stated that, “so far, sanctions have left no effect on the peoples’ lifestyle.”1 Such statements are not uncommon. In late November 2010, a close confidant of and adviser to President Ahmadinejad stated that increased financial restrictions and sanctions have had “no noticeable effect” on Iran’s economy.2 Lastly, on October 30, 2010, Shakour Akbarnejad of the Iranian Parliament’s Economic Commission stated that “history has shown that sanctions have left no negative impact on the Iranian nation’s movement and we have, in a word, become accustomed to them.”3 On December 8, 2010, Deputy IRGC Chief in Information and Communications Technology Brigadier Hossein Mazloumi made the following remarks during the opening ceremony of the 4th National Electronic Defense Seminar at Khajeh Nasir Tech University: "The positive effects of sanctions is easily observable both in our universities and at the industrial firms that are active in this hi-tech field." "During the course of the past decade the Islamic Republic of Iran has been witness to eye catching advancements in electronic defense field and particularly during the past five years, keeping in mind the huge investments made in the technological firms, many products in the field have been produced." 1 “EC Secretary Downplays Effects of Sanctions against Iran.” Fars News Agency. 13 Nov. ‘10 2 Erdbrink, Thomas and Serjoie, Kay Armin. “Adviser to Ahmadinejad Says West’s Sanction’s Have Failed.” The Washington Post. 24 Nov. 2010. 3 “MP: Iran’s Targeted Subsidy Plan defU.S.es Effects of Sanctions.” Fars News Agency. 30 Oct. ‘10 "Today diversified types of ESM terminals and other technological products are designed and manufactured by the mighty Iranian engineers and the country's capabilities keep on increasing with the passage of each new day."4 On December 28, 2010, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made similar remarks in a speech in Iran’s Alborz Province: "We told them that when they confronted U.S., we stood up and they did not gain any result, while Iran achieved its goal.” "We told them that if they want to continue their previous path, the Iranian nation is fully prepared and will give ill-wishers a response that will make the enemies repent." "But if you have come for honest cooperation and if you have come to recognize the indisputable rights of the Iranian nation, then such an attitude would be beneficial to all; we prefer the second option." "But if you once again choose the first option under the influence of the devils, then Iran will show the same response that it has, thus far, shown, this nation does not allow any world power to usurp even an iota of its rights."5 How Iran Spins Sanctions Some Iranian officials have gone so far as to claim that sanctions have benefitted Iran by engendering technological innovation and self-reliance. While speaking to reporters at the 11th exhibition of nuclear achievements at the Islamic Azad University of Mashad on November 13, 2010, the Deputy Head of the Atomic Energy Oranization of Iran, Behzad Soltani, stated the following: “All (Iran’s) achievements acquired in the nuclear industry have been made during the period of sanctions.” “Western Sanctions have enhanced the level of our nuclear achievements in the country and caused U.S. to develop many nuclear technologies indigenously.”6 On March 6, 2011, Ahmadinejad made similar allusions to the alleged positive effects of sanctions on Iran’s scientific and industrial development, stating that “the Iranian nation learned to rely on their (own) resources and capabilities… and as a result, made great scientific achievements” as a result of sanctions. The same officials do, however, indirectly allude to the detrimental effects of sanctions on Iran’s economy. On October 18, 2010, Majles and Foreign Policy Committee member 4 “IRGC Official: Sanctions Accelerate Iran's Efforts to Achieve Further Progress.” Fars News Agency. 9 Dec. ‘10 5 “Iranian Minister: U.S., Britain's Destiny Worse than Hitler's.” Fars News Agency. 28 Dec. ‘10 6 “Official: Sanctions Accelerate Iran's Efforts to Achieve N. Progress.” Fars News Agency. 13 Nov. ‘10 Mahmud Ahmadi-Bighashsaid stated that the “elimination of all sanctions and resolutions against Iran must accompany the new round of negotiations” over Iran’s nuclear issue.7 Addressing the inauguration ceremony of the construction phase of a railroad project in Mashad, Ahmadinejad stated that despite sanctions, “the Islamic Iran will continue the country’s construction under the worst conditions, and the pressures imposed (on Iran) by the arrogance through its sanctions [sic] leave no effect on Iran’s power.”8 While this statement affirms that sanctions have not diminished Iran’s “power,” terms such as “worst conditions” and “pressures” tacitly refer to the damaging effects sanctions have had on the country’s economy and infrastructure. The Year of Economic Jihad Perhaps the regime’s strongest reference to the effects of sanctions and economic competition between Iran and the country’s opponents since September 2010 came on April 3, 2011 when Ahmadinejad called for the current Iranian calendar year to be “The Year of Economic Jihad” when speaking to a gathering of senior Iranian officials.9 The President’s website reportedly stated that “economic jihad should be realized in every aspect of all Iranian’s lives.”10 Supreme Leader Khamenei likewise named the new Iranian year “The Year of Economic Jihad,” and called or the Iranian nation and government to “prepare the grounds for a decade of economic growth.”11 While these statements do not make direct reference to economic hardship, competition with the West or the U.S., or sanctions, the use of the term “jihad” is telling.
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