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Zee Entertainment Enterprises RESULT UPDATE ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTERPRISES Starts year with a bang India Equity Research| Media Zee Entertainment Enterprises’ (ZEE) Q1FY16 revenue and PAT exceeded EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS our and Street’s estimates. Key positives were: (i) impressive ad growth Absolute Rating BUY of 25.4% YoY on a base of 17.4% (15% YoY in Q4FY15 on high base of Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer 21.5%); (ii) strong 13.7% YoY growth in domestic subscription; and (iii) Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium second consecutive quarter of positive sports EBITDA. As expected, Sector Relative to Market Overweight EBITDA margin at 23.2% improved by 313bps QoQ as the launch phase of &TV is now behind. ZEE has acquired Sarthak TV (a profitable market leader in Odia language) in an all‐cash deal (INR1,150mn). The company’s MARKET DATA (R: ZEE.BO, B: Z IN) strategy of launching/acquiring new channels and strengthening its CMP : INR 376 Target Price : INR 420 market share in regional markets highlights strong execution (reflects in 52‐week range (INR) : 402 / 265 ahead‐of‐industry ad growth). Maintain ‘BUY’. Share in issue (mn) : 960.4 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 361 / 5,651 Ad growth boosts revenues; margins improve QoQ, down YoY Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 2,683.9 Ad revenues moved up 25.4% YoY (60‐65% of ad revenue comes from FMCG). This is commendable given that consumer bellwether, Hindustan Unilever, has lowered its TV SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) ad spend to 70% from 90% of total. Domestic subscription revenues surged ~13.7% Current Q3FY15 Q2FY15 YoY, while LTL international revenues grew 7% YoY. The Pakistan ‐ Zimbabwe and West Promoters * 43.1 43.1 43.1 Indies ‐ England series in Q1FY16 aided syndication revenues (up 367.6% YoY). MF's, FI's & BK’s 2.2 1.0 1.4 Transmission & programming costs spurted 51.4% YoY due to &TV. Though EBITDA FII's 50.0 51.9 50.8 margins improved QoQ, we expect EBITDA margin to be flattish for FY16. PAT jumped Others 4.8 4.0 4.7 15.8% YoY, driven by high other income (up 74.5% YoY). * Promoters pledged shares : 15.9 (% of share in issue) Q1FY16 conference call: Key takeaways PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Ad growth was not only driven by &TV, but led by existing national and regional EW Media Stock Nifty channels. Other income was aided by forex gains. With rural data coming in next 3‐4 Index months, the company believes Zee TV will be back at No. 2 position in BARC ratings. 1 month 14.4 4.3 9.2 Sarthak TV has 25% viewership share in the Orissa market. ZEE will expand into Kerala 3 months 8.4 (1.2) 2.6 only after it stabilises in Tamil markets. ZEE will bid for IPL broadcasting rights. ZEE is 12 months 24.7 10.0 6.7 wresting ad share from print companies in regional markets. Outlook and valuations: Growth DNA; maintain ‘BUY’ Robust ad growth (12.6% YoY projected by GroupM) and best play on digitisation are key positives. At CMP, the stock is trading at 39.9x and 30.4x FY16E and FY17E EPS, respectively. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with target price of INR420. Financials (INR mn) Year to March Q1FY16 Q1FY15 % change Q4FY15 % change FY15 FY16E FY17E Abneesh Roy Revenues 13,399 10,551 27.0 13,471 (0.5) 48,837 55,677 66,263 +91 22 6620 3141 EBITDA 3,112 3,092 0.7 2,708 14.9 12,537 13,919 17,957 [email protected] Adjusted Profit 2,438 2,106 15.8 2,308 5.6 9,775 10,479 13,348 Rajiv Berlia Dil. EPS (INR) 2.5 2.2 15.8 2.4 5.7 8.7 9.4 12.4 +91 22 6623 3377 Diluted P/E (x) 43.3 39.9 30.4 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 29.1 26.0 19.9 ROAE (%) 31.1 27.1 29.2 July 15, 2015 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Table 1: Trends at a glance Revenue break up (INR mn) Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Ad revenue 4,792 5,301 5,833 6,843 5,824 6,221 6,259 7,426 6,697 7,799 Domestic subscription 3,374 3,168 3,350 3,322 3,344 3,238 3,373 3,455 4,175 3,680 International revenue 1,172 1,073 1,231 1,243 1,291 1,189 872 1,007 933 945 Total subscription 4,546 4,241 4,581 4,565 4,635 4,427 4,245 4,462 5,108 4,625 Sport business Sales 1,072 1,159 1,558 1,915 1,959 976 1,181 2,476 1,680 1,519 Costs 1,477 1,254 1,749 2,956 1,608 964 1,431 2,746 1,438 1,504 EBITDA (405) (95) (191) (1,041) 351 12 (250) (270) 242 15 EBITDA margin (%) (37.8) (8.2) (12.3) (54.4) 17.9 1.2 (21.2) (10.9) 14.4 1.0 Non‐sports business Sales (non‐sports) 8,571 8,574 9,455 9,969 9,629 9,575 9,997 11,161 11,791 11,880 Costs (non‐sports) 5,743 5,564 6,159 6,020 6,864 6,495 6,543 7,358 9,325 8,783 EBITDA (non‐sports) 2,828 3,010 3,296 3,948 2,765 3,080 3,455 3,803 2,466 3,097 EBITDA margin (non‐sports) (%) 33.0 35.1 34.9 39.6 28.7 32.2 34.6 34.1 20.9 26.1 Growth rate Ad revenues 15.5 18.5 10.5 34.3 21.5 17.4 7.3 8.5 15.0 25.4 Total subscription revenues 13.0 16.5 16.0 11.4 2.0 (2.8) (7.3) (2.3) 10.2 4.5 % of revenue Transmission & programming 48.4 42.2 45.8 51.3 47.0 38.2 42.1 47.3 46.0 45.6 Employee cost 8.7 9.8 9.0 8.1 8.6 10.6 9.7 8.0 9.0 10.3 EBITDA 25.1 30.0 28.2 24.5 26.9 29.3 28.7 25.9 20.1 23.2 PAT 18.7 23.0 21.5 18.0 18.7 19.9 20.3 22.5 16.9 18.1 Source: Company, Edelweiss research Table 2: Relative share among top‐5 GECs (%) Year 2015 Relative share among top5 GECs (%) Week Star Plus Colors Zee TV Sony Life OK Wk 25 27.4 23.0 17.2 15.9 16.6 Wk 26 26.5 24.4 19.4 13.9 15.8 Source: BARC, Edelweiss research Sarthak Entertainment Sarthak TV, the regional channel of Odisha was founded in 2010. The acquisition is already profitable. It has average GVT of 9,500. It reaches nearly 5mn viewers every week. It is available across the country through different DTH platforms of Tata Sky, Airtel DTH, Videocon and Dish TV. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ten Sports ‐ New corporate brand identity Ten Sports unveiled a new logo for the channel in its bid to acquire a new identity. Ten Sports Network owns and operates Ten Sports, Ten Cricket, Ten Action, Ten Golf, Ten HD and Ten Cricket. The company has started using Ten Sports Network name recently. It was earlier known as Taj Television. It holds long‐term broadcast rights of five cricket boards, WWE and exclusive broadcast rights of the US Open along with other exclusive tournament rights. Currently, the channel is airing the India‐Zimbabwe series. ZEE Q1FY16 Conference Call | Key Takeaways Ad growth: TV industry ad revenue is expected to grow in low teens during FY16 (FMCG, consumer durable and E‐commerce companies are main drivers of ad growth). ZEE is expected to grow higher than the industry average in FY16. The company’s non sports business ad revenue growth is in mid to high teens. Ad growth of 25.4% YoY in Q1FY16 was not only driven by &TV, but also by existing national and regional channels. Subscription revenues: While LTL subscription revenue grew 13.6% YoY, it fell QoQ as there were one‐off components (catch‐up revenues) in domestic subscription revenues in Q4FY15. It is expected to grow in low to double digits in FY16. Other syndication revenue: The Pakistan versus Zimbabwe, West Indies versus England and Sri Lanka versus Pakistan cricket series, the UEFA Champions League Finals, WWE Specials and MotoGP among others contributed to syndication revenues. Sports loss: ZEE expects FY16 sports loss to be ~INR1bn, though it could be lower than this. Sport business is linked to digitisation of Phase 3 and 4 markets. IPL: ZEE will bid for IPL broadcasting rights. Sarthak acquisition: The channel, which has 25% viewership share, is already profitable. It will take 3 months to get all the regulatory approvals, post which it s numbers will be consolidated in the overall numbers. Ad revenue market size of Orissa: INR1,000‐1,100mn. Programming content: Zee TV has 30 hours of original programming content per week. Going ahead, it will stay at these levels. Similarly, &TV’s programming content will increase to 30 hours (currently 22 hours). RIO: ZEE is currently evaluating the 27.5% TRAI case.
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