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Zee Entertainment Detailed Report | 21 July 2015 Sector: Media Zee Entertainment Also called the Habitable Zone or Life Zone, the Goldilocks Zone is an area of space in which a planet is just the right distance from its home star so that its surface is neither too hot nor too cold. The Earth, of course, fills that bill, while Venus roasts in a runaway greenhouse effect and Mars exists as a frozen, arid world. In between, the conditions are just right so that liquid water remains on the surface of the planet without freezing or evaporating out into space. In other words, the conditions are such that life can thrive. In the Goldilocks Zone… Shobhit Khare ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5428 Jay Gandhi ([email protected]); +91 22 3089 6693 Zee Entertainment Contents Summary ............................................................................................................. 3 Story in charts ...................................................................................................... 4 All set to ride the ad tailwind ................................................................................ 9 24% domestic susbcription revenue CAGR........................................................... 13 Sharp margin rebound in FY17/18 ....................................................................... 16 Sports investments to continue .......................................................................... 18 Premium valuations to sustain ............................................................................ 19 Financials and valuations .................................................................................... 26 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. 21 July 2015 2 Detailed ReportZee Entertainment | Sector: Media Zee Entertainment BSE Sensex S&P CNX CMP: INR387 TP: INR475 (+23%) Buy 28,182 8,529 Motilal Oswal values your In the Goldilocks Zone… support in the Asiamoney Perfect ad/subscription environment; earnings to double over FY15-18 Brokers Poll 2015 for India Zee Entertainment (ZEE) has entered the ‘Goldilocks Zone’—a zone of perfect Research, Sales and Trading team. We request your ballot. conducive conditions that will enable EBITDA and PAT to double over FY15–18E We expect 22%/24% ad/domestic subscription revenue CAGR over FY15–18E, driven by share gains in a rebounding advertising market and digitization-led increase in the broadcaster’s share of subscription revenue We believe EBITDA margin will rebound sharply in FY17/18 to reach ~30% by FY18E. ZEE’s flat margin guidance for FY16 (+-100bp), despite it being one of its biggest investment periods, lends confidence about strong revenue growth visibility and opportunities to improve cost efficiencies Our earnings estimates are 9-21% above consensus and imply 25% earnings CAGR Stock Info over FY15-18. Maintain Buy with a price target of INR475 (23% upside) Bloomberg Z IN Equity Shares (m) 960.4 22% ad revenue CAGR led by market share gains: Our genre-wise forecasts M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 371.7/5.8 indicate that ZEE is well placed to ride the expected advertising rebound and 52-Week Range (INR) 402 / 265 gain market share to achieve ~22% ad revenue CAGR over FY15-18E compared 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 10/0/19 with ~14% CAGR expected for TV advertising as a whole (assuming a 1.7x GDP Avg Val (INRm)/Vol‘000 914/2686 multiplier, in line with the historical average). Excluding the recently launched Free float (%) 56.9 Hindi GEC &TV, we expect ad revenue CAGR of 17% for ZEE. Uniquely positioned for phase III/IV digitization: Phase IIII/IV digitization Financial Snapshot (INR Billion) (deadline of December 2015/December 2016) presents improved monetization Y/E MAR 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E opportunity from ~80m households; this should increase the broadcasters’ Net Sales 48.8 57.6 69.4 83.8 share of domestic subscription revenue from ~INR75b–80b in FY15 to ~INR150b EBITDA 12.5 13.8 18.9 25.5 by FY18E. ZEE is uniquely positioned as one of the only two networks having a NP 9.8 10.9 14.6 19.3 leading GEC across Hindi/major regional markets along with presence across all EPS (INR) 10.2 11.4 15.2 20.1 relevant genres. Assuming ZEE largely maintains its share in subscription EPS Gr. (%) 9.7 11.5 33.5 32.6 revenue, we expect 24% domestic subscription revenue CAGR over FY15-18E. EPS (INR)* 10.8 13.1 15.8 19.6 Sharp margin rebound in FY17/18; improved cash flows: While FY16 RoE (%) 31.2 28.0 30.5 32.0 EBITDA margin might decline to an 8-year low, primarily due to first year losses RoCE (%) 27.3 27.3 31.8 36.4 for &TV, we expect margins to rebound sharply from 26%/24% in FY15/FY16E to D. Payout (%) 22.1 18.5 14.8 12.4 27%/30% in FY17E/FY18E – led by operating leverage in core business and Valuations increasing profitability for &TV (expect break-even in FY18E). ZEE’s flat EBITDA P/E (x) 38.0 34.1 25.5 19.2 margin guidance for FY16 (+-100bp YoY) means that the worst of margin P/E (x)* 35.8 29.4 24.5 19.7 uncertainty is already behind. Our industry interactions also indicate lower EV/EBITDA (x) 29.6 26.6 19.2 13.8 competitive intensity for movie rights, which will lead to lower inventory Div. Yield (%) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 accumulation on the balance sheet and better FCF generation. *ex-&TV Adjusting for &TV We are significantly ahead of consensus; maintain Buy: and preference share liability, ZEE trades at ~31x FY16E EPS (~30% premium v/s its average P/E of ~24x). Our earnings estimates are 9-21% ahead of consensus. We expect rich valuations to sustain given 25% earnings CAGR and scarcity premium. Maintain Buy with a price target of INR475, based on 30x FY17E EPS (ex-&TV) plus INR18/sh &TV DCF value less INR18/sh preference share liability. 21 July 2015 3 Zee Entertainment Story in charts Exhibit 1: Expect TV industry ad revenue CAGR of 14% Exhibit 2: FY15–18E Incremental ad revenue analysis for ZEE Real GDP growth (%) TV industry ad growth (%) Ad to GDP multiplier (x) 8 4 17 17 5 2.5 14 6 9 13 13 14 14 7 1.5 49 9 1.9 1.9 8 1.9 1.7 1.7 27 7 9 7 5 7 1.3 7 8 8 1.7 8 0.9 FY15 ad &TV Regional Hindi GEC Others FY18E ad FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E revenue ex-&TV revenue Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 3: Estimated TV ad revenue market share of ZEE Exhibit 4: Genre wise estimated TV ad revenue market share network (%) of ZEE network (%) ZEE ad revenue (INRm) ZEE ad share (%) Hindi Regional Others ZEE ad share ex-&TV (%) 27.7 25.1 26.5 21.5 21.6 19.2 20.7 17.5 19.8 20.5 15.7 17.2 13.7 18.4 19.2 17.6 18.9 18.5 15.5 16.2 12.1 13.5 16 20 24 27 34 41 49 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 5: ZEE: Estimated FY15 ad revenue break-up Exhibit 6: Industry: Estimated FY15 ad revenue break-up Others, 6.8, 26% Others, 56, Hindi, 50, Hindi, 10.8, 36% 32% 40% Regional, 9.1, 34% Regional, 49, 32% Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL 21 July 2015 4 Zee Entertainment Story in charts Exhibit 7: India: Estimated C&S subscribers (m) Exhibit 8: India: Estimated C&S subscriber mix (%) 200 174 Analogue Cable (%) Digital Cable (%) 158 166 DTH (%) Other Digital HH (%) 149 139 150 130 119 105 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 100 27 26 26 27 27 30 36 41 5 5 15 18 19 25 50 33 62 62 41 53 49 47 38 26 0 13 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Source: Industry, MOSL Source: Industry, MOSL Exhibit 9: Estimated Pay-TV revenue split (distribution platform-wise) Analogue Cable Digital Cable DTH Other Digital Total Subscription Revenue 529 447 24 389 346 24 24 259 23 198 151 123 67 86 124 180 132 128 102 66 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 10: Analysis of Broadcasters’ share of Pay TV subscription revenue FY15E FY18E Pay TV subscription rev (INR b) -Analog 132 66 -Digital 213 463 Total 346 529 Broadcaster's share (INR b) -Analog 13 7 -Digital 65 139 Total 79 146 Broadcaster's share (%) -Analog 10 10 -Digital 31 30 Total 23 28 Source: Industry, MOSL 21 July 2015 5 Zee Entertainment Story in charts Exhibit 11: EBITDA to double from ~INR12.5b to ~INR25.5b Exhibit 12: EPS impact of &TV launch EBITDA (INRm) EBITDA (%) ZEE EPS excl '&TV' &TV EPS contribution ZEE EPS incl '&TV' 30 20.1 26 27 27 26 24 26 24 15.8 13.1 10.8 19.6 15.2 25.5 11.4 18.9 10.2 13.8 0.5 12.0 12.5 -0.6 -1.8 -0.7 7.6 7.4 9.5 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15E* FY16E FY17E FY18E Exhibit 13: EBITDA margin trajectory Exhibit 14: Content cost as a percentage of revenue Consolidated EBITDA margin Non sports EBITDA margin (incl &TV) Content Cost (INRm) As % of revenue Non sports EBITDA margin (excl &TV) 46 41 43 41 39 37 38 39 38.6 36.4 37.7 33.5 32.5 34.6 32.3 35.7 28.7 31.9 34.8 30.1 30.4 25.7 24.3 25.8 27.2 25.7 23.9 27.2 11 11 14 17 20 26 30 34 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Exhibit 15: ZEE P/E Band Exhibit 16: ZEE: Relative P/E v/s Sensex Zee Ent.
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