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Images of Twentieth Century Genocide: Decoding Symbols and Heeding Warnings

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Images of Twentieth Century Genocide: Decoding Symbols and Heeding Warnings Images of Twentieth Century Genocide Decoding Symbols and heeding warnings Diane E. Chido Masters Thesis Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies 3 May 2006 i IMAGES OF TWENTIETH CENTURY GENOCIDE Decoding Images and Heeding Warnings By Diane E. Chido Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Mercyhurst College In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Master of Science In Applied Intelligence 3 May 2006 James Breckenridge, Director Intelligence Studies Dept. Date Dr. Brian Ripley, SECOND READER, Prof. Pol. Sci. Date Dr. Barbara Behan, Vice President, Office of Academic Affairs Date iii Table Of Contents Acknowledgements............................................................................................................. v Preface................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter I Introduction........................................................................................................ 3 I &W Practical Application ........................................................................................ 3 Environmental Factors................................................................................................ 3 Definition .................................................................................................................... 4 Why We Need To Think About Genocide At All ...................................................... 5 Limitations .................................................................................................................. 7 Other Works................................................................................................................ 7 Chapter II Methodology................................................................................................... 11 Chapter III Literature Review.......................................................................................... 13 Chapter IV Findings......................................................................................................... 21 Development of Ethnic Conflict ................................................................................... 21 Ethnic Identity........................................................................................................... 21 Ethnicity Versus Citizenship..................................................................................... 22 Ethnicity Versus Nationalism ................................................................................... 24 Nationalist Politics.................................................................................................... 27 Crowd Power And Mass Incitement............................................................................. 28 The Role Of Crowds ................................................................................................. 31 Effects Of Culture On Genocide Participation ......................................................... 36 Imagery And Demagoguery: Beating The Drum.......................................................... 47 Peasant Cultivator Image .......................................................................................... 50 Threat to Nationalist Central Self-Image.................................................................. 54 Naming the Enemy ................................................................................................... 61 First Death Image...................................................................................................... 64 Public Blueprints Of Genocide: Declarations And Manifestos ................................... 67 Continuum Of Destruction............................................................................................ 73 Internal and External Environmental Conditions ......................................................... 79 Mounting Demographic Pressures............................................................................ 81 Sharp And/Or Severe Economic Decline ................................................................. 82 Criminalization Or Delegitimization Of The State................................................... 85 Uneven Economic Development Along Group Lines .............................................. 87 Rise Of Factionalized Elites...................................................................................... 89 Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance..................................................... 89 Catalytic Events ........................................................................................................ 91 Chapter V Conclusions .................................................................................................... 97 Indicators and Warning (I&W)..................................................................................... 97 Coalescence Of Environmental Conditions Plus War .................................................. 99 Next Case? .................................................................................................................. 100 Top Contenders....................................................................................................... 101 Selection: Zimbabwe ............................................................................................. 102 Further Considerations................................................................................................ 112 Current American Parallels..................................................................................... 113 iv Timeline .................................................................................................................. 115 Thick Versus Thin Citizenship ............................................................................... 116 Propaganda As Distinct Indicator ........................................................................... 116 Annex I: Origins And Motivational Sources Of............................................................ 119 Mistreatment ................................................................................................................... 119 Annex II: Declarations Of Intent To Commit Genocide ............................................... 122 Nuremberg Laws......................................................................................................... 122 Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences (SANU) Memorandum 1986....................... 127 Hutu Manifesto or Hutu Ten Commandments............................................................ 135 Annex III: Additional Information/Documents ............................................................. 136 Annex IV: Other Early Warning Models Of Genocide ................................................. 137 References....................................................................................................................... 140 Endnotes.......................................................................................................................... 147 v Acknowledgements The topic of this thesis was inspired by Dr. Brian Ripley, who introduced me to the Problem From Hell and encouraged me to combine my interests in ethnic conflict, power, and world politics in this comparative look at genocide; a framework that was more effective and less cumbersome than my earlier attempts to stuff this elephant into my pocket. I am forever grateful to Mr. James Breckenridge, who also kept me in check and helped to weed out the more grandiose ideas. I will always appreciate his source recommendations, comments and suggestions, and the time he spent in that calming manner when I was ready to explode with despair or enthusiasm. Without hyperbole, Professor Kris Wheaton is the greatest teacher and the best mentor any student or person will ever be lucky enough to find. He gave me opportunities to test myself, taught me how to write and most importantly, to believe in my abilities. He is also a great friend who empowered me at a time when I was at my lowest and thanks to him; I can now do anything I set my mind to. Thanks to the MTAP Mob, who helped me settle back into the student life; and to the Galileo Gang, who taught me how to lead, especially Katrina, who keeps track of all the details. I also thank my family, especially my son Zachary, who enabled all these efforts. Jen, Suki, Mike, Jeremy, Emily, Brian, and Andy were there to smooth the ride and pick me up - often. 1 Preface In the Twentieth Century genocide increased in frequency and ferocity due mainly to technological advances and environmental degradation. It is highly likely that the economic dislocations caused by globalization will continue to exacerbate the problem of genocide in the Twenty-first Century. The United States is still the most powerful and influential country in the world and is in the best position to halt this frightening trend. The best way to save genocide victims is to stop it before the killing begins. This study intends to prove that genocide is not the frenzied act of madmen it appears to be. A successful genocide campaign requires years of planning, the coalescence of a particular set of environmental conditions, and careful psychological preparation of both the target and the aggressor populations. Predicting the next onset and preventing violence are attainable goals. This study proposes to illustrate how an effective Indicators and Warning (I&W) system
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