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China Light Vehicle Sales Update June 2018 China Light Vehicle Sales Update Early Signs of a Market Reshuffle China’s Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales in May 2018 increased by 7.0% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.92 mn units, while the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sector improved by 12.1% YoY. This led to growth of 7.7% YoY for the overall Light Vehicle (LV) market, on total sales of 2.22 mn units for the month. LV production was up by 12.2% in May, but year-to-date (YTD) growth was still low, at just 3.1%, owing to the poor performance at the start of the year. The CADA dealer inventory index stood at 1.59 months at the end of May, 1% up compared to the same month last year, and 4% down on April. The rate was still above the warning line of 1.5 months and slightly higher than the average seen over the last six years. Note, however, that the retail side of the market does not appear to have performed as well as the wholesale side. Insurance data illustrate that the gap between wholesales and retail sales of domestically produced models widened to 1.13 mn units in the first four months of the year, equivalent to around 14.3% of total retail sales in April 2018 YTD. There have been a number of developments at the OEM level in recent months that point to the start of a market reshuffle. Suzuki, for instance, terminated one of its two Chinese joint ventures, Changhe Suzuki, in June and is currently in negotiations with partner Changan Automobile to withdraw capital from the second, Changan Suzuki. Ultimately, this would spell the end of all Suzuki production in China. The Japanese automaker entered the Chinese market in 1984, when it began selling Mini Cars and Mini Buses, helping to expand what was then an underdeveloped market. By offering affordable products, Suzuki gave Chinese consumers their first taste of vehicle ownership. As the market grew increasingly sophisticated, however, the brand gradually lost momentum, particularly as its two key segments declined. Mini Car share of the PV market fell from 6.5% in 2009 to 0.9% in May 2018 YTD, while Sub-Compact Car share shrank from 17.5% to 4.7% in the same timeframe. The Mini Bus segment, meanwhile, saw its market size contract from 1.9 mn units in 2009 to 0.55 mn in 2017. Without a viable market environment, Suzuki no longer has a playing field on which to compete. Several attempts were made to rectify the situation over the last few years by launching Compact and Midsize Cars, as well as a Sub-Compact SUV, but these new products failed to gain traction. Suzuki’s lackluster response to the EV market, which, thanks to strong government support, has grown sharply in recent years, dealt another major blow. Suzuki is not the only foreign brand leaving China, however, as Fiat is also preparing its exit. Parent group FCA’s strategy is to focus on developing the Alfa Romeo, Jeep and Maserati brands in China, with only Jeep set to benefit from local production in the future. Fiat’s departure has been blamed on FCA failing to provide sufficient internal resources, leading to a weak product line and a loss of momentum. These struggles are not limited to the global brands operating in China, as some local marques are experiencing similar woes. Notable among them is Chery Automobile, which has decided to sell a controlling stake for approximately CNY20 billion (US$3.1 billion) in an attempt to raise sufficient funds to relaunch itself in the increasingly competitive PV market. This follows the decision, in December 2017, to sell 25% of its stake in Qoros to Baoneng Group. Chery was once the leading domestic brand in the Chinese market, a position it held for several years until 2012. The decline took hold in 2013, with Chery now in eleventh place (as of May 2018). Chaotic product planning over the past few years resulted in a loss of competitiveness and while a clearer product strategy is now in place, it will take time for the brand to recover lost ground. With its volumes down and its leading w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 1 China Light Vehicle Sales Update position gone, Chery now finds itself cash-starved. To return to its former heyday, the brand has little choice but to seek external financing. Meanwhile, the shift in the industry toward electrification has attracted the attention of players from other industries keen to reap the potential benefits by entering the automotive sector. The above-mentioned real estate company Baoneng Group is now the largest shareholder in Qoros and, according to recent reports, may take over as a strategic investor in Changhe Suzuki, following Suzuki’s departure. The competitive ferocity is such that with so many players, even for such a vast market, we are bound to see more departures, mergers and acquisitions. And when growth begins to slow down as the market reaches maturity, a zero-sum market may no longer be able to support 100+ brands. In effect, what we are currently witnessing are the early stages of a more prolonged and inevitable market reshuffle. w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 2 China Light Vehicle Sales Update Market Top Lines Best Selling Models May Δ YTD Δ 2018f Δ May Δ Share YTD Δ Share Sales 2,372,304 8% 12,268,381 5% PV PV 1,924,191 7% 10,185,105 6% 25,813,413 2% Wuling Hongguang 32,587 -11% 1.7% 214,313 -5% 2.1% LCV 296,196 12% 1,384,860 -2% 3,230,995 0% Volkswagen Lavida 43,873 15% 2.3% 196,862 -11% 1.9% M&H CV 151,917 17% 698,416 12% Baojun 510 24,003 0% 1.2% 196,235 172% 1.9% Production 2,348,842 12% 11,794,793 4% LCV PV 1,908,544 12% 9,769,014 4% 24,782,038 2% Wuling Mini Truck 32,929 50% 11.1% 142,667 18% 10.3% LCV 295,867 16% 1,341,227 -1% 3,175,937 -1% Foton Light Truck 26,907 23% 9.1% 121,456 7% 8.8% M&H CV 144,431 11% 684,552 12% Changan Light Truck 18,575 128% 6.3% 92,032 66% 6.6% Top Brands (Sales) Top Manufacturers (Production) YTD YTD # Brand May Δ YTD Δ # Manufacturer May Δ YTD Δ Share Share 1 Volkswagen 239,096 9% 1,051,840 5% 10.3% 1 SAIC Volkswagen 176,672 31% 702,293 8% 7.2% 2 Geely 119,738 38% 487,342 33% 4.8% 2 SAIC GM 164,903 13% 659,944 14% 6.8% 3 Honda 107,633 -12% 433,446 2% 4.3% 3 FAW Volkswagen 174,828 22% 597,751 -5% 6.1% 4 Toyota 95,832 5% 415,172 4% 4.1% 4 SAIC GM Wuling 114,913 6% 567,368 7% 5.8% 5 Changan 69,633 56% 363,804 -6% 3.6% 5 Geely Group 136,080 51% 493,942 33% 5.1% 6 Buick 92,713 1% 362,989 -1% 3.6% 6 Dongfeng Nissan 107,514 2% 399,382 8% 4.1% 7 Nissan 95,470 16% 352,537 15% 3.5% 7 Changan Automobile Group 71,397 7% 328,522 -5% 3.4% 8 Baojun 70,685 21% 340,323 20% 3.3% 8 Great Wall Motor 70,175 -1% 290,524 5% 3.0% 9 Haval 55,055 -11% 235,578 -17% 2.3% 9 SAIC Motor 72,760 41% 256,956 35% 2.6% 10 Hyundai 70,163 100% 232,822 1% 2.3% 10 Dongfeng Honda 54,153 -8% 236,822 7% 2.4% 11 Mercedes-Benz 54,228 14% 230,737 14% 2.3% 11 GAC Honda 59,249 10% 234,186 5% 2.4% 12 Audi 49,743 9% 222,302 25% 2.2% 12 Beijing Hyundai 69,000 90% 222,200 -17% 2.3% 13 Chevrolet 60,470 54% 218,753 44% 2.1% 13 FAW Toyota 46,081 -10% 215,220 -3% 2.2% Passenger Passenger Vehicle Passenger Vehicle 14 Dongfeng 35,304 -8% 202,013 -14% 2.0% 14 Changan Ford 46,409 -31% 196,957 -28% 2.0% 15 BMW 46,293 -4% 193,065 6% 1.9% 15 GAC Motor 51,683 20% 193,967 23% 2.0% 16 Trumpchi 43,481 4% 192,801 18% 1.9% 16 Beijing Benz 38,619 24% 155,449 21% 1.6% 17 Wuling 31,805 -17% 181,728 -6% 1.8% 17 Chery 39,369 -8% 154,191 -16% 1.6% 18 Ford 40,340 -21% 178,400 -32% 1.8% 18 GAC Toyota 43,324 23% 148,441 6% 1.5% 19 Beijing 39,605 -13% 168,539 -7% 1.7% 19 BYD 35,877 19% 148,326 22% 1.5% 20 Roewe 39,397 42% 164,558 38% 1.6% 20 Brilliance BMW 35,186 16% 142,837 11% 1.5% Passenger Vehicle Total 1,924,191 7% 10,185,105 6% 86.7% Passenger Vehicle Total 1,908,544 12% 9,769,014 4% 86.6% 1 Wuling 50,203 -21% 205,778 -16% 14.9% 1 SAIC GM Wuling 53,206 4% 191,714 -12% 14.3% 2 Changan 29,755 28% 127,134 -10% 9.2% 2 Beiqi Foton 29,508 -21% 117,846 -15% 8.8% 3 Foton 34,566 -7% 116,398 -18% 8.4% 3 Changan Automobile Group 30,639 16% 107,177 -3% 8.0% 4 Dongfeng 27,060 18% 91,233 7% 6.6% 4 Jiangling Motors 25,766 7% 87,793 1% 6.5% 5 JAC 20,265 2% 86,448 2% 6.2% 5 Jianghuai Automotive 18,648 37% 81,113 4% 6.0% 6 JMC 16,013 9% 56,935 -3% 4.1% 6 Dongfeng Automobile 20,261 -3% 78,313 -5% 5.8% 7 Great Wall 12,962 32% 44,699 13% 3.2% 7 Great Wall Motor 13,239 20% 47,212 16% 3.5% 8 Jinbei 11,749 5% 40,667 -3% 2.9% 8 Brilliance Auto 11,807 9% 40,181 -1% 3.0% Commercial Commercial Vehicle Commercial Commercial Vehicle 9 CNHTC 9,699 23% 36,447 19% 2.6% 9 CNHTC 9,761 17% 38,556 24% 2.9% 10 Maxus 8,337 191% 31,637 238% 2.3% 10 SAIC Commercial 8,862 147% 31,544 243% 2.4% Commercial Vehicle Total 296,196 12% 1,384,860 -2% 13.3% Commercial Vehicle Total 295,867 16% 1,341,227 -1% 13.4% 29th June 2018 For further information contact Ms.
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