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Simon Rubinsohn Chief Economist RICS ECONOMICS Tel: 020 7334 3374 [email protected] Residential Market Survey September 2014 Demand slips but no sign of a pickup in new instructions • More balanced picture emerging nationally • London market coming off the boil • Rental market remains firm, underpinned by tight supply and steady demand growth The September RICS Residential Market Survey indicates fading, albeit still robust, price momentum at the headline level. This comes on the back of a more balanced demand picture, in part related to less buoyant expectations of future price rises. Crucially however, the supply trend remains more or less flat with no indication of a pick up in new vendor instructions. The headline price net balance fell from 39 previously to 30 this month, the lowest reading since June 2013. The London price balance turned slightly negative in September for the first time since the beginning of January 2011, ending the longest continuous period of price growth that this survey has recorded for the capital. Although stripping London out from the headline balance produces a more positive reading, the trend in the headline ex-London series over the last few months has still been on a downward trajectory, indicating that fading price momentum is more than just a London story. Expectations for price growth over the coming three months remain positive with only surveyors in the London market expecting to see values decrease. However, at the twelve month horizon, prices are expected to rise across all regions with respondents on average forecasting a 2.1% increase. Price rises are expected to be more gradual in London over this period, with surveyors expecting 1% growth on average in the year to come. Looking further ahead, at the national level respondents still expect prices to rise by an average of 4.7% per year over the next five years. The growing sense of caution seems to have taken a particular toll on the London market where buyer demand contracted more significantly than elsewhere in September, falling for the fifth consecutive month. Supply conditions at the headline level remain tight with new instructions to sell almost unchanged in September, continuing the trend that we have seen for most of the past year. The softening in buyer sentiment and tight supply conditions have combined to keep transaction levels relatively subdued. The agreed sales balance came in broadly stable this month following the decline seen in August. However, sales expectations remain in positive territory at the headline level at both the three and twelve month horizons. The only exception to this is London where the sharper contraction in demand that has been witnessed recently has pulled near term sales expectations into negative territory. The Scottish independence referendum likely had an impact on the local market during the month, with activity indicators turning negative following a period of strong growth. However, respondents expect any disruption caused to be temporary, with sales and price expectations firm. The softening tone to buyer activity in the sales market stands in contrast to the lettings market where demand on a non seasonally adjusted basis has continued to grow solidly across the majority of the UK. However, it is noteworthy that new instructions to let have generally not kept pace with the rise in new tenants. Indeed, fresh instructions registered with agents decreased slightly at the headline level for the sixth consecutive month in September. The tightening in market conditions has led to an increase in expectations for rental growth, with respondents now anticipating growth of 2.3% over the coming year. Net balance data include: house prices (last 3 months), new buyer enquiries (last month), new vendor instructions (last month), agreed sales (last month), price expectations (3 and 12 months ahead), sales expectations (3 and 12 months ahead), tenant demand (last 3 months), new landlord instructions (last 3 months) and rent expectations (3 months ahead). Levels data include: average stock per surveyor and average sales per surveyor (last 3 months). % data include: price and rent expectations at the 1 and 5 year (expected annual average) horizons and average perceived LTVs for first-time buyers, buy-to-let landlords and existing owners. Headline results cover England and Wales only. Excludes Scotland and Northern Ireland. See next page for notes to editors and final page for other information. To receive the PDF free of charge on the morning of the embargo date, email: [email protected] rics.org/economics Notes to editors About: • The RICS Residential Market Survey is a monthly sentiment survey of Chartered Surveyors who operate in the residential sales and lettings markets. Regions: • The ‘headline’ national readings cover England and Wales. • Specifically the 10 regions that make up the national readings are: 1) North 2) Yorkshire and Humberside 3) North West 4) East Midlands 5) West Midlands 6) East Anglia 7) South East 8) South West 9) Wales 10) London. • The national data is regionally weighted. • Data for Scotland and Northern Ireland is also collected, but does not feed into the ‘headline’ readings. Questions asked: 1.Total sales over last 3 months i.e. post contract exchange (level)? 2.Total number of unsold houses on books (level)? 3.Total number of sales branches questions 1 & 2 relate to (level)? 4.How have average prices changed over the last 3 months? (down/ same/ up) 5.How have new buyer enquiries changed over the last month? (down/ same/ up) 6.How have new vendor instructions changed over the last month? (down/ same/ up) 7.How have agreed sales changed over the last month? (down/ same/ up) 8.How do you expect prices to change over the next 3 months? (down/ same/ up) 9.How do you expect prices to change over the next 12 months? (down/ same/ up) 10.How do you expect sales to change over the next 3 months? (down/ same/ up) 11.How do you expect sales to change over the next 12 months? (down/ same/ up) 12.How has tenant demand changed over the last 3 months? (down/ same/ up) 13.How have landlords instructions changed over the last 3 months? (down/ same/ up) 14.How do you expect rents to change over the next 3 months? (down/ same/ up) 15.How do you expect average house prices, in your area, to change over the next 12 months? (% band, range options) 16.What do you expect the average annual growth rate in house prices will be over the next 5 years in your area? (% band, range options) 17.How do you expect average rents, in your area, to change over the next 12 months? (% band, range options) 18.What do you expect the average annual growth rate in rents will be over the next 5 years in your area? (% band, range options) 19.What do you perceive to be average LTVs currently being offered in the market for first-time buyers? (% band, range options) 20.What do you perceive to be average LTVs currently being offered in the market for existing owners? (% band, range options) 21.What do you perceive to be average LTVs currently being offered in the market for buy-to-let landlords? (% band, range options) • Questions 15-18 are broken down by bedroom number viz. 1-bed, 2-bed, 3-bed, 4-bed or more. Headline readings weighted according to CLG English Housing Survey. Net balance data: • Net balance = Proportion of respondents reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall (if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%). • The net balance measures breadth (how widespread e.g. price falls or rises are on balance), rather than depth (the magnitude of e.g. price falls or rises). • Net balance data is opinion based; it does not quantify actual changes in an underlying variable. • Net balance data can range from -100 to +100. • A positive net balance implies that more respondents are seeing increases than decreases (in the underlying variable), a negative net balance implies that more respondents are seeing decreases than increases and a zero net balance implies an equal number of respondents are seeing increases and decreases. • Therefore, a -100 reading implies that no respondents are seeing increases (or no change), and a +100 reading implies that no respondents are seeing decreases (or no change). • In the case of the RICS price balance, a reading of +10 should not be interpreted as RICS saying that house prices are going up by 10%, but that 10% more surveyors reported increases rather than decreases in prices (over the last three months). • A change from +30 to +60 does not mean that the variable grew by 30% in one period and by 60% in the next period, but it does indicate that twice as many surveyors reported an increase compared to a decrease than in the previous period. • Likewise, if we get a reading dropping from +90 to +5, this still means that more respondents are reporting increases than decreases overall, but the breadth of those reporting increases has fallen dramatically; meanwhile, a shift in the reading from -90 to -5 still means that more respondents are reporting decreases than increases overall, but the breadth of those reporting decreases has fallen dramatically. Seasonal adjustments: • The RICS Residential Market Survey data is seasonally adjusted using X-12. Number of contributors to this month’s survey: • 346 (corresponding to 547 branches) Next embargo date: • 13th November 2014 (second Thursday) 2 rics.org/economics Sales market charts regional Prices national enquires national enquires regional instructions national instructions regional

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