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Accounting for Health Impacts of Climate Change Climate Change Will Affect Health in Most Countries in Asia and the Pacific

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Accounting for Health Impacts of Climate Change Climate Change Will Affect Health in Most Countries in Asia and the Pacific Accounting for Health Impacts of Climate Change Climate change will affect health in most countries in Asia and the Pacific. It will challenge the public health community at the global, regional and national levels with emerging diseases and existing diseases increasing and spreading geographically. This study aims to improve the understanding of the human health dimensions of climate change and how projects in areas other than health, such as agriculture, water financing programs, and disaster risk reduction need to account explicitly for the health impacts of their interventions. About Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency Sida works according to directives of the Swedish Parliament and Government to reduce poverty in the world, a task that requires cooperation and persistence. Through development cooperation, Sweden assists countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America. Each country is responsible for its own development. Sida provides resources and develops knowledge, skills and expertise. This increases the world’s prosperity. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to two-thirds of the world’s poor: 1.8 billion people who live on less than $2 a day, with 903 million struggling on less than $1.25 a day. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org ISBN: 978-92-9092-359-6 Publication Stock No. RPT113738 Printed on recycled paper Printed in the Philippines Accounting for Health Impacts of Climate Change © 2011 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published in 2011. Printed in the Philippines ISBN 978-92-9092-360-2 Publication Stock No. RPT113738 Cataloging-In-Publication Data Asian Development Bank Accounting for health impacts of climate change. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2011. 1. Health impact. 2. Climate change I. Asian Development Bank. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444 This document was financed by the Fax +63 2 636 2444 Swedish International Development www.adb.org Cooperation Agency (Sida). Sida does not necessarily share the For orders, please contact: views expressed in this material. Department of External Relations Responsibility for its contents rests Fax +63 2 636 2648 entirely with the author. [email protected] Printed on recycled paper Contents List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes iv Acknowledgments v Acronyms vi Executive Summary vii Introduction 1 Climate Change, Health, and Costs 3 Climate Change and Health 3 Health Costs of Climate Change 7 Health in Sector Project Investments 12 Managing the Health Impacts of Climate Change through Sector Projects 15 Identifying and Quantifying the Health Impacts of Climate Change 15 Monetizing Health Impacts in Projects 19 Defensive Expenditures Methodology 20 Cost-of-Illness Methodology 20 Contingent Valuation Methodology 22 Cost–Benefit Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Investments 24 A Collaborative Approach 26 Conclusions and Recommendations 28 References 30 List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes Tables 1 Projected Health Impacts of Climate Change 4 2 Number of People Affected by Extreme Weather Events, 1960–2007 7 3 Estimated Losses in Current per Capita Consumption 10 4 Projected Costs to Manage Additional Climate Change–Related Cases of Diarrheal Diseases, Malnutrition, and Malaria in 2030 ($ million) 10 5 Average Annual Adaptation Cost for Human Health: Preventing and Treating Malaria and Diarrhea, by Region and Decade, 2010–2050 ($ billion at 2005 prices, no discounting) 11 6 Cost of Treating Diarrheal Diseases in Nepal 22 Figures 1 Incidence of Dengue Fever in Indonesia (per 100,000 People) 4 2 Monthly Rainfall and Number of Cases of Dengue Fever in the Philippines, 1990–1999 5 3 Monthly Rainfall and Number of Cases of Dengue Fever in the Philippines, 2008–2009 5 4 Typhoid Cases and Temperatures in Kathmandu Valley, 2006 6 5 Typhoid Cases and Rainfall in Kathmandu Valley, 2006 6 6 Natural Hazards in Tajikistan 8 7 Tajikistan’s Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability to Climate Change 9 8 Pinpointing the Health Impacts of Climate Change 15 9 Estimating the Future Burden of Diseases 17 10 Defensive Expenditure and Cost-of-Illness Methodologies 20 11 Components of the Cost of Illness 21 12 A Collaborative Approach 27 Boxes 1 Health Impacts in Asian Development Bank Project Cost–Benefit Analysis 13 2 Health in Nepal’s National Adaptation Programme of Action Process 14 3 Constraints to Identifying and Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal 16 4 Accounting for the Role of Socioeconomic Characteristics 19 5 Recommended Institutional Arrangements and Coordination in Nepal 29 iv Acknowledgments he Asian Development Bank (ADB) Climate Change Fund and the Government of Sweden provided funding to the Climate Change and Health technical assistance with technical support from the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture TOrganization of the United Nations. This report was prepared by Benoit Laplante, Genandrialine Peralta, and Canesio Predo under the guidance and supervision of Bartlett Edes, Director, Poverty Reduction, Gender, and Social Development Division (RSGS) of ADB’s Regional and Sustainable Development Department (RSDD); Jacques Jeugmans, Practice Leader (Health), RSGS/RSDD; and Rikard Elfving, Social Development Specialist, RSGS/RSDD. A regional consultation took place on 30 August 2010 in Seoul, Republic of Korea in conjunction with the 2010 Joint Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology and the International Society for Exposure Science. We thank the following participants for their comments and suggestions on an early draft of the paper: Hae-Kwan Cheong, Shay Fout, Yasushi Honda, Yun-Chul Hong, Jostacio Lapitan, Anthony J. McMichael, Hisashi Ogawa, Weimin Song, Peter Sly, and Alistair Woodward. We also appreciate the participation of the following country representatives for their contribution: Nepal—Padam Raj Bhatta and Harj Prasad Ghimire. Philippines—Rodolfo M. Albornoz and Maria Imelda S. Gomez. Tajikistan—Firdavs Hayokhojaev and Bobodzhon Ismoilov. The report also benefited from the support and technical inputs of the following: Khamza Abdurakhimov, Mahfuz Ahmed, Claudia Buentjen, Beau Damen, Robert Dobias, Purushottam Ghimire, Herath Gunatilake, Peter Hayes, Anneli Hildeman, Azamdzhon Ibodov, Tomas Lundstrom, Bonifacio Magtibay, Cecile Magturo, Cindy Malvicini, Sharon Mañalac, Ian O’Donnell, Makoto Ojiro, Göran Paulsson, Anil Pokhrel, Bandana Pradhan, Zarrina Sanginova, Lauren Sorkin, Myo Thant, Terrence Thompson, and Maria Dulce Zara. v Acronyms ADB – Asian Development Bank CVM – Contingent Valuation Methodology DMC – developing member country IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change GCM – global climate model or general circulation model WHO – World Health Organization UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change vi Executive Summary sia and the Pacific host the greatest number of people vulnerable to the projected adverse impacts of climate change. Climate change is expected to modify and often to magnify the current burden of diseases in the region. With projected increases in temperature and Achanges in rainfall patterns (generally yielding drier climate in dry seasons and wetter climate in wet seasons), and an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of tropical cyclones and storms, climate change will significantly challenge the public health community at the global, national, and local levels. While all populations are vulnerable to climate-induced health risks, the most vulnerable remain those in low-income groups with little adaptive capacity, among which the elderly, children, and women are most vulnerable. Reducing vulnerabilities and increasing resilience to help people cope with health effects of climate change will increasingly become a priority for the region, while new innovative approaches should be explored to protect these populations. This study aims to improve the understanding of the human
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