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Russia's Foreign Policy: Key Regions and Issues

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Russia's Foreign Policy: Key Regions and Issues Forschungsstelle Osteuropa Bremen Arbeitspapiere und Materialien No. 87 – November 2007 Russia's Foreign Policy: Key Regions and Issues Edited by Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perovic, Heiko Pleines, Hans-Henning Schröder Forschungsstelle Osteuropa an der Universität Bremen Klagenfurter Straße 3, D-28359 Bremen Tel. +49 421 218-3687, Fax +49 421 218-3269 http://www.forschungsstelle.uni-bremen.de Arbeitspapiere und Materialien – Forschungsstelle Osteuropa, Bremen Working Papers of the Research Centre for East European Studies, Bremen No. 87: Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perovic, Heiko Pleines, Hans-Henning Schröder (eds.): Russia’s Foreign Policy: Key Regions and Issues November 2007 ISSN: 1616-7384 All contributions in this Working Paper are reprints from the Russian Analytical Digest. About the Russian Analytical Digest: The Russian Analytical Digest is a bi-weekly internet publication which is jointly produced by the Research Centre for East European Studies [Forschungsstelle Osteuropa] at the University of Bremen (www.forschungsstelle.uni-bremen.de) and the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) (www.css.ethz.ch). It is supported by the Otto-Wolff-Foundation and the German Association for East European Studies (DGO). The Digest draws from contributions to the German-language Russlandanalysen, the CSS analytical network Russian and Eurasian Security Network (RES) and the Russian Regional Report. For a free subscription and for back issues please visit the Russian Analytical Digest website at www.res.ethz.ch/analysis/rad Technical Editor: Matthias Neumann Cover based on a work of art by Nicholas Bodde Opinions expressed in publications of the Research Centre for East European Studies are solely those of the authors. This publication may not be reprinted or otherwise reproduced – entirely or in part – without prior consent of the Research Centre for East European Studies or without giving credit to author and source. © 2007 by Forschungsstelle Osteuropa, Bremen Forschungsstelle Osteuropa Publikationsreferat / Publications Dept. Klagenfurter Str. 3 D-28359 Bremen – Germany phone: +49 421 218-3687 fax: +49 421 218-3269 e-mail: [email protected] internet: http://www.forschungsstelle.uni-bremen.de Contents Part I: Russia’s Relations with Key Regions of the World Russia and the West Andrei Zagorski Moscow Seeks to Renegotiate Relations with the West ....................................................7 Russian Opinion Surveys: Friends and Enemies, International Relations ......................11 Sabine Fischer The EU and Russia: Stumbling from Summit to Summit .............................................. 15 Russian Opinion Surveys: Attitudes Towards the EU and the USA ................................18 Andrew Monaghan Prospects for Developing NATO – Russia Relations ...................................................... 19 Russian Opinion Surveys: On the Plans of the USA to Station Anti-Missile Systems in Eastern Europe ............................................................................................................22 Russia and Central Asia Aleksei Malashenko Russia and Turkmenistan ................................................................................................ 25 Map: Russia’s Oil and Gas Pipelines ...............................................................................29 Statistics: GDP Per Capita (PPP US$), Central Asia .......................................................30 Statistics: Turkmenistan: Origin and Destination of Exports and Imports .....................30 Alisher Ilkhamov Russia Lures Uzbekistan as its Strategic Satellite in Central Asia ..................................31 Statistics: Russian-Uzbek Trade ......................................................................................34 Martha Brill Olcott The Kazakh-Russian Relationship .................................................................................. 37 Statistics: Kazakhstan: Origin and Destination of Exports and Imports .........................41 Russian Opinion Survey: Attitudes towards Kazakhstan ............................................... 42 Russia and Asia Gilbert Rozman Russia’s Resurgence in Northeast Asia: Views from the Region ....................................45 Statistics: Key Economic Indicators for Selected Countries ...........................................48 Oksana Antonenko Russia, Central Asia and the Shanghai Co-operation Organization ............................... 49 Russian Views on their Asian Neighbors ........................................................................54 Part II: Key Issues Nuclear Proliferation Adam N. Stulberg Russia’s Nonproliferation Tightrope ............................................................................... 65 International Opinion Survey on the Spread of Nuclear Weapons ................................. 69 Documentation: The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) ....... 72 Maritime Border Confl icts Vlad M. Kaczynski US-Russian Bering Sea Marine Border Dispute: Confl ict over Strategic Assets, Fisheries and Energy Resources ..................................................................................... 75 Vlad M. Kaczynski The Kuril Islands Dispute Between Russia and Japan: Perspectives of Three Ocean Powers ............................................................................................................................. 79 Geir Hønneland Norway and Russia in the Barents Sea – Cooperation and Confl ict in Fisheries Management .................................................................................................................... 82 WTO Accession Peter Rutland Russia and the WTO: One Step Forward, One Step Back ..............................................89 Natalya Volchkova Russia and the WTO: A Russian View ........................................................................... 92 Documentation: World Trade Organization: Principal Objectives and Functions, Accession Procedure ....................................................................................................... 95 Documentation: Economic Effects of Russian WTO accession ..................................... 96 Recent English-Language Publications of the Research Centre for East European Studies ............................................................................................................................106 English-Language Newsletters of the Research Centre for East European Studies ......107 Russia and the West Moscow Seeks to Renegotiate Relations with the West By Andrei Zagorski, Moscow Abstract Russian foreign policy appears to be going in circles. Each new president begins by emphasizing – or repairing – the relationship with the West, only to end his time in offi ce by questioning and jeopar- dizing it. It remains an open question if Putin’s successor will seek a new accommodation with the West. Under Yeltsin and Putin: Warm Beginnings, Diffi cult Endings Boris Yeltsin declared in December 1991 that the new democratic Russia might consider joining NATO. Although the text of his address to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council was retroactively revised because the request met with a lack of understanding, Yeltsin’s fi rst term in offi ce was characterized by his determination to see Rus- sia accepted as a full-fl edged member of the community of democratic industrialized nations; not least because the West largely had to underwrite his policies, as well as his re-election in 1996 in both political and fi nancial terms. Yeltsin’s second term in offi ce was, however, overshadowed by a number of controversies, including the two Chechen campaigns, the eastward expansion of NATO, the dispute over the status of Kosovo and the war in former Yugoslavia, the future nuclear balance between Russia and the US, and, particularly, US plans to build a missile defense system. Th e legacy of Yeltsin’s policy towards the West just before his resignation at the end of 1999 was a grim one. “Russia fatigue” was spreading in the West, and the US opposition complained that Rus- sia had been “lost,” while even Yeltsin himself talked about the advent of a “cold peace” at his last appearance before a Western audience at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in November 1999. Yeltsin’s successor, Vladimir Putin, began his tenure in 2000 by repairing the heavily-damaged relation- ship. Russia’s economic stabilization, energetic communication with Europe, and especially the immediate announcement of almost unlimited support for the US in fi ghting terrorism after the September 11, 2001 attacks marked the beginning of a new course. For a while, former disagreements seemed to have moved far into the distance. But this was only a brief interlude before the disputes returned to center stage at the Munich Security Conference in February 2007. It is remarkable that the issues currently at the center of controversy are the same as in the latter years of the Yeltsin presidency. Th e main stumbling blocks are still Kosovo, NATO’s eastward expansion, conventional forces in Europe, US plans for missile defense, and policies towards Russia’s neighbors. Similarly to Yeltsin’s statements in 1999, Putin is threatening a confrontation with the West in his fi nal year in offi ce. While he has not used the term “cold peace,” he has conjured up the prospect of a new arms race in Europe. Admittedly, political parallels can often be misleading. Th e mere fact that two successive presidents
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