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A GRASS-GIS-Based Methodology for Flash Flood Risk Assessment in Goa

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A GRASS-GIS-Based Methodology for Flash Flood Risk Assessment in Goa A GRASS-GIS-Based Methodology for Flash Flood Risk Assessment in Goa K. Suprit, Aravind Kalla and V. Vijith National Institute of Oceanography (CSIR), Dona Paula, Goa 403004. 6 October 2010 Executive Summary Recurring floods in Goa cause damage to both property and life. After the 2 October 2009 flash floods in Canacona Taluka, South Goa, the Government of Goa constituted a committee (Canacona Flash Floods Study Committee) to study the flood event and suggest mea- sures to minimize damages occurring from similar episodes in future. The committee recommended the developing of a methodology for flood risk assessment and warning during an intense-rainfall event which can be implemented elsewhere in Goa with the help of grad- uate students. This requires the analysis of topography for river flow (watershed analysis) and converting rainfall to river flow (discharge calculation). The watershed analysis is based on a free and open source GIS called GRASS GIS. It calculates the watershed properties (watershed areas, stream network, slope, etc.). It also identifies and delineates areas nearest to the stream channel, the ones most likely to be affected by flash floods (flood-prone areas). Based on the discharge calculations, a simple method to give warn- ing of the possible occurrence of flash flood due to intense-rainfall events is also developed. A simple but widely used hydrological model, called rational method, is used to calculate the peak discharge in the selected stream. Based on this method, a flood watch algorithm is derived, which uses rainfall intensity data from the nearest Automatic Weather Station (AWS). The method developed uses free and open software tools and re- quires a bare minimum of input data, namely, topographic data (Digi- tal Elevation Model, DEM) and rainfall data, both of which are avail- able free of cost in the public domain. Its viability is tested for the flash flood of 2 October 2009 in the Talpona river. The method is mainly aimed at graduate students of Goa and it is hoped that the framework will be further strengthened in the future, by incorporat- ing advanced hydrological flood forecasting models. Thus, this study aims at being a starting point to have in place a full fledged flash flood assessment and forecasting system for Goa. 3 1 Introduction 1.1 Background The west coast of India is one of the maximum rainfall regions of the country, with ∼ 90% of the rainfall occurs in the monsoon (June–September). The orography of the coast and heavy rainfall makes the region flood-prone during intense-rainfall events. These intense-rainfall events occur frequently on the coast, the probability of these episodes being maximum between latitudinal band 14◦–16◦ N and near 19◦ N (Francis and Gadgil, 2006). The state of Goa (Figure 1), (15◦–16◦ N and 73◦–75◦ E) lies in the above mentioned band of intense rainfall-event-prone area. Overall the climate and geography of Goa is typical of the west coast of India. The heavy rainfall experienced here is owing to the presence of Sahyadris. The Sahyadri moun- tains (also known as the Western Ghats) run along the coast. They rise to a height of about 1000 m. The peaks of the Sahyadris straddle a very narrow coastal plain (Figure 1) (average width of the plains is ∼ 50 km). The coastal plain itself is dotted with hills, and valleys through which rivers originating from the hills and slopes of the Sahyadris flow eventually to drain into the Arabian Sea. The source of water in these rivers is heavy rainfall on the slopes and hills of Sahyadris due to the orographic lifting of moisture laden winds coming inland from the Arabian Sea in the Indian Summer Monsoon. This small geographical area of the coastal plain and heavy rainfall on the hills makes the region flood-prone. In the last decade, there were at least four major flood events (floods of 2000, 2005, 2007 and 2009). The frequent floods caused much damage to the state. The flash flood of 2 October 2009 was a severe one affecting the Canacona Taluka of South Goa district. The floods caused extensive damage to the Canacona Taluka: 2 lives were lost along with an estimated damage of property worth 100 crore rupees. In the wake of this flood, the Government of Goa constituted the Canacona Flash Floods Study Committee (CFFSC) under the chairmanship of Dr. S. R. Shetye, Director, National Institute of Oceanography (CFFSC, 2009). CFFSC (2009) determined that the flash flood was a direct consequence of the intense-rainfall event of 7-hours (be- 4 tween 9:30 AM to 4:30 PM of 2 October 2009), where 271 mm of rainfall occurred in the Canacona Taluka (CFFSC report can be downloaded from NIO’s website (www.nio.org)). The CFFSC was also mandated by the Government of Goa to suggest measures to be adopted in Goa to minimize damage arising from similar episodes in future. The specific recommendations in this regard to develop a methodology to identify vulnerable areas are outlined below (from CFFSC, 2009): (a) The areas vulnerable to mudslides should be mapped and site-specific disaster management plan to face them should be in place at each loca- tion with high vulnerability. (b) Areas with high vulnerability to flooding due to an intense-precipitation event should be identified and a disaster management plan should be evolved at locations that are particularly vulnerable. (c) A mechanism for keeping a careful watch should be in place whenever a situation arises with high potential for an intense-precipitation event in a vulnerable area. The Meteorological Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Panaji, should form the nerve centre of such a watch. (d) The State of Goa should make IMD’s “Cyclone Warning Dissemination System” operational in the state. Further, the CFFSC recommended that: In order to enlarge the state’s awareness of damage from pre- cipitation events, the above should be carried out using the ser- vices of faculty and students from Goan undergraduate and post- graduate institutions, and then circulated widely amongst local policy and decision makers. To assist this process, the NIO Team should prepare one report on one site on each of the two as- pects described in (a) and (b). These reports could then be used as models for carrying out case studies by undergraduate and post-graduate institutions in Goa to examine other vulnerable locations. 5 This report addresses the above specific recommendation (b). A method aimed at graduate students is developed for the flood risk assessment in Goa. 1.2 Challenge Rivers are an important part of the hydrological cycle; they route water from rainfall over land surface to the sea. The water in the rivers (streams) flows through a river channel, which is bounded by natural (sometimes artificial) embankments. The river (stream) channel is etched in a relatively flat surface of land, formed by sediments brought by the river. This relatively flat surface is known as floodplain. Depending upon the weather, generally, the flow in the rivers is contained within the stream channel. During intense-rainfall events (in the monsoon), however, rivers flow in full (peak flow) and water spills over to the floodplain. A flood flow is defined as any high flow that spills over the embankments along the river (Chow et al., 1988). This flooding is a natural event and occurs almost every year in a heavy rainfall region such as the west coast. Occasionally (as on 2 October 2009), extreme flood flows (magnitude much greater than peak flow) occur during particular intense- rainfall events; the terrain cannot route the resulting heavy runoff efficiently and promptly, causing damage to life and property because of heavy discharge and water inundation. Flash floods can occur within minutes due to extremely high rainfall intensities, and are different from the general floods occurring due to rainfall events of higher duration (days to weeks). Flash floods also tend to occur in small watersheds as compared to general floods in big river basins (Shelton, 2009). Flash floods are caused by slow-moving weather patterns (convective sys- tems) that generate intense rainfall over the same area. Important contribut- ing factors include topography and soil condition: the water is concentrated into a small area without getting absorbed into the soil (Shelton, 2009). Dur- ing such an intense episode almost all the rainfall is converted into surface runoff, and if runoff is not routed efficiently or in time, flooding occurs. A flash flood is defined when flooding occurs after a few minutes to less than six hours after the intense-rainfall event (see in Shelton, 2009). 6 This report is concerned only with the weather-related flash floods. It is worth remembering that floods can occur due to many other causes such as dam failure, drainage network and land use changes, and other geophysical calamities. As discussed earlier, the three most important factors for occurrence of a flash flood are intense-rainfall event, topography and soil condition. Any method for flood risk methodology should resolve these three issues. Water flows from high to low areas, hence flow directions depend upon the topography. The method requires analysis and visualisation of topographical data; a GIS (Geographical Information System) is a must for implementing it. Commercial GIS packages were straightaway ruled out because of the stag- gering cost and licensing issues. Further, most of the commercial packages are not flexible and cannot be customised since their source code is not available. These facts prompted us to use an open source GIS software called GRASS GIS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System GIS), available freely on the World Wide Web (http://grass.itc.it/) (Neteler and Mitasova, 2002).
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