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Glasgow City Council 18Th August 2015 Regeneration and the Economy Policy Development Committee

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Glasgow City Council 18Th August 2015 Regeneration and the Economy Policy Development Committee Item 5 Glasgow City Council 18th August 2015 Regeneration and the Economy Policy Development Committee Report by Executive Director of Development and Regeneration Services Contact: Jan Freeke Ext: 78647 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR GLASGOW’S MULTI-MEMBER WARDS Purpose of Report: To inform Committee of the main results of the population and household projections, prepared by the Council’s Development and Regeneration Services, for Glasgow’s 21 Multi-Member Wards, in the period 2012 to 2022. Recommendation: That Committee consider the results of these projections which Council Services should take into account these results. Ward No(s): Citywide: Local member(s) advised: Yes No v consulted: Yes No v PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING: Any Ordnance Survey mapping included within this Report is provided by Glasgow City Council under licence from the Ordnance Survey in order to fulfil its public function to make available Council-held public domain information. Persons viewing this mapping should contact Ordnance Survey Copyright for advice where they wish to licence Ordnance Survey mapping/map data for their own use. The OS web site can be found at <http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk> " If accessing this Report via the Internet, please note that any mapping is for illustrative purposes only and is not true to any marked scale 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 The 2012-base population and household projections for Scotland’s Council areas were published by National Records of Scotland (NRS) on 14th May 2014 and 30th July 2014. A report “Demographic Changes in Glasgow City and Neighbourhoods”, discussed by the Committee on 30th September 2014, presented the results of the NRS projections for Glasgow City and described the main demographic changes in Glasgow’s neighbourhoods between the Census years 2001 and 2011. 1.2 The analysis of 2001 and 2011 Census data showed the wide variation in rates of demographic change for areas in Glasgow. This resulted in a commitment, by DRS, to prepare population projections for areas within the City, consistent with the NRS projections for Glasgow City. This report gives the projection results for Glasgow’s 21 Multi Member Wards (MMWs). 2 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 2.1 NRS use the cohort component methodology for their projections. This method projects future population levels by estimating the components of change, i.e. the numbers of births and deaths, and the in and out migration flows, for each of the years in the projection period. These components of change are added, on a year by year basis, to the population in the base year, which gives the population in the projection year. Projections of the number of households are prepared by applying “number of households per population ratios” to the projected population figures, after adjustment for people living in communal establishments, e.g. in student halls of residence. 2.2 The projections for Glasgow’s MMWs have been prepared by DRS with the same methodology, using the POPGROUP population and household projection software. 2.3 Expected future migration flows, i.e. the numbers of people moving into and out of the areas, are of crucial importance for projected levels of future population. For the projections by Council area, NRS have assumed that the pattern of net migration in the previous five years (i.e. net migration in the years 2007-2012 for the 2012-base projections) will continue in the projection period (i.e. the years 2012 to 2037). 2.4 Although this is considered to be a reasonable approach to take for Council area projections, it can be less appropriate for small(er) area projections. For example, the Calton Ward has seen sizable numbers of housing demolitions in Parkhead and Dalmarnock during 2007 to 2012, but the Games Village and other housing developments in the area give rise to the expectation that future migration flows will be different from the ones in recent years. 2.5 For the MMW projections, data was collected on projected dwelling stock by MMW, taking into account projected housing completions (from the established Housing Land Supply for the private sector and from the Strategic Housing Investment Plan, the SHIP, for the social rented sector), as well as planned GHA demolitions. An initial set of population and household projections was calculated, based on past net migration levels. This was followed by an adjustment of the migration assumptions so that, in the second set of projections, projected household change reflects the pattern of projected dwelling change in 2012 to 2022. 2.6 DRS plan to publish, in the near future, a briefing paper with more detailed projection results, which will also give more detail on the assumptions used with respect to fertility, mortality, migration and household formation. 2.7 The NRS projections for Glasgow City cover a 25-year period, i.e. 2012 to 2037. Because reliable estimates of projected dwelling change are not available for such a long period, the MMW projections have been prepared for a ten-year period only. In this report the projection results for the period 2012 to 2022 are compared with estimated change during the previous decade, 2002 to 2012. 2.8 NRS make clear that their projections indicate what is likely to happen if past trends continue. Projections are not forecasts and they do not account for, amongst others, changes in policies. The same is true for the MMW projections, which have been based on the assumption of past change continuing into the future. As already stated, however, planned housing change has been taken into account. Of course this implies that if actual housing completions differ from current plans, then the actual population change will be different from projected values. 2.9 This report discusses a set of results which are consistent with the NRS principal projection results for Glasgow City. It should be noted that the previous Committee report, referred to in paragraph 1.1, expressed concern that the NRS principal projections may be too high and suggested that the lower migration scenario results may be more realistic. However, the projections for MMWs have been constrained to the NRS principal projection results for Glasgow City, given the following considerations: (1) there are, inevitably, uncertainties with regard to any projection, (2) NRS have indicated that the principal projection is what they consider the most likely scenario for Glasgow’s population and (3) it improves consistency with other documents (e.g. the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment) which are based on the NRS principal projections. The text of this report includes, for Glasgow City, some comparisons of the NRS principal projection results with the NRS low migration variant results. 3 PROJECTION RESULTS 3.1 In this chapter the changes in Glasgow’s population are discussed via a commentary on some Tables and a series of maps. Figures quoted in the text have been rounded to the nearest 50. For the purpose of comparison, the “A” maps show the changes for the recent period, 2002 to 2012, and the “B” maps for the projection period, 2012 to 2022. In the maps green is used to show increases and purple is used to show reductions. 3.2 Glasgow’s population is projected to grow by 3,450 per year according to the NRS principal projection (see Table 1), which is considerably higher than in the recent decade (1,850 per year in 2002-2012). It should be noted that net migration is projected to be similar in the two periods (at about 1,700 to 1,750 per year). The difference is caused by a higher natural population change in the projection period (more births and fewer deaths). Table 1 - Estimated and Projected Population Change Glasgow City principal low migration estimates projection variant 2002 to 2012 2012 to 2022 2012 to 2022 population at start of period 576,450 595,080 595,080 population at end of period 595,080 629,696 619,022 total change 18,630 34,616 23,942 annual change 1,863 3,462 2,394 births 7,086 7,795 7,699 deaths 6,934 6,078 6,070 natural change 152 1,717 1,629 net migration/other changes 1,711 1,745 765 Source: National Records of Scotland - Crown Copyright Reserved 3.3 Under the NRS lower migration scenario, Glasgow’s population is projected to grow by 2,400 per year, which is also above the 1,850 per year growth in 2002-2012. A lower net migration (at 750 per year, as compared with 1,700 per year in 2002-2012) is more than compensated for by a higher natural population change (at 1,650 per year, as compared with 150 per year in 2002- 2012). 3.4 Maps 1A and 1B (see next page) show the estimated/projected population change for Glasgow’s Wards in 2002 to 2012 and in 2012 to 2022. The most notable change is a concentration of population growth in the Wards Calton and North East in 2012-2022, as compared with a concentration of growth in the Ward Anderston/City in 2002-2012. The population of the Anderston/City Ward is projected to grow by 8% in 2012-2022, which is considerably below the 29% rate of growth in 2002-2012 (see Appendix, Table A1). 3.5 The Springburn Ward shows the highest rate of population loss. But the rate of population change is expected to improve from -11% in 2002-2012 to -7% in 2012-2022. 3.6 The three Wards with the highest expected population growth in 2012-2022 are Calton (+27%), North East (+15%) and Canal (+11%). 3.7 For Maryhill/Kelvin, Shettleston and Baillieston there is a change from population decline in 2002-2012 to projected population growth in 2012-2022.
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