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March 8-14, 2018

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March 8-14, 2018 רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ה ש ל מ ( ( למ מ"ל Spotlight on Global Jihad March 8-14 , 2018 Main events of the week This week, the fighting in Syria was concentrated in eastern Al-Ghouta, where the Syrian forces managed to divide the area controlled by the rebel organizations into three parts. The Syrian forces continue their ground fighting with air support, while the local residents are in severe distress. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), 1,170 people were killed in eastern Al-Ghouta in 23 days of airstrikes and artillery shelling by the Syrian army. South of the city of Damascus, ISIS, which controls most of the area of the Yarmouk refugee camp, is preparing for the possibility that the Syrian effort will be directed against it after the fall of eastern Al-Ghouta. The other rebel organizations operating in the area prefer evacuation over cooperation with ISIS. This week, an agreement was reached in which some 1,800 militants and their families were evacuated from the Al-Qadam neighborhood (west of the Yarmouk refugee camp) to the Idlib area. ISIS accused the rebel organizations of having agreed to give their positions in Al-Qadam to the Syrian army in exchange for evacuation from the neighborhood. Another site of fighting is the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in northwestern Syria. This week, the Turkish army announced that, together with the Free Syrian Army, it had completed the encirclement of Afrin as part of Operation Olive Leaf. According to the Turkish media, an agreement has been reached between Turkey and the United States, under which Turkey and the United States will observe the withdrawal of the YPG operatives (the Kurdish forces in Syria) from the city of Manbij (the city west of the Euphrates River, which is held by the Kurdish forces under the protection of the US). The Egyptian security forces, which are carrying out intensive security operations against ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula, continue to report on their successes against ISIS (see video). ISIS, on its part, has warned the Egyptians to stay away from the election centers during the 065-18 2 Egyptian presidential elections (March 28-26, 2018). In the ITIC’s assessment, ISIS will try to back up this warning with terrorist attacks during or shortly before the elections. Click here to watch the video Russian and American involvement Russia Putin’s remarks on the threats that led to Russia’s decision to join the war in Syria In an interview (to a documentary film entitled “World Order 2018”), Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the decision to send Russian forces to Syria was made in the wake of information indicating that there were around 2,000 Russian citizens in Syria and around 4,500 citizens of Central Asian countries, thousands of whom were fighting in the ranks of ISIS and the Al-Nusra Front. These operatives, he said, posed a threat to Russia, since they could easily infiltrate its territory (and carry out attacks there).1 Putin also noted that the collapse of the Syrian regime could have turned the region into a large-scale arena used by terrorist elements for decades to come (RIA; RT, March 7, 2018). The United States Statements by senior US officials regarding the policy in Syria In his testimony to the House Armed Services Committee (February 27, 2018), Gen. Joseph L. Votel, Commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), reviewed the challenges facing the US Army in the Middle East. Referring to the struggle against ISIS, Gen. Votel said that after the intensive activity of the Coalition forces, the end of the Caliphate was near. According to him, the Iraqi security forces and the SDF (Kurdish) forces have liberated more than 98% of the territory that ISIS had held in Iraq and Syria. He called on the United States to take advantage of the momentum and maintain its success by investing in the local population in order to motivate it to prevent the resurgence of ISIS. Gen. Votel also noted that the challenge the US will now have to face is the return of hundreds of foreign fighters who fought in the ranks of ISIS to their home countries. According to him, the SDF forces and the Iraqi security forces are holding hundreds of foreign fighters in their detention facilities. He added that the longer these fighters remain 1 Citizens of some Central Asian countries can enter Russia without a visa. 065-18 3 together in detention, the greater the risk that they will form new relationships, share the lessons that they have learned and organize themselves for their release or escape. These issues, he said, require international efforts, including law enforcement, intelligence cooperation, and diplomatic arrangements (docs.house.gov, February 27, 2018). According to Col. Ryan Dillon, Spokesman for the US-led Coalition against ISIS, the fight against ISIS is now focused mainly on stabilizing the areas that have been taken over and identifying foreign fighters who are planning to return to their home countries. According to him, the SDF forces are now taking steps to combat the worrisome phenomenon of ISIS foreign fighters trying to flee back to the West via the neighboring countries. According to Terry Wolff, Deputy Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, the Coalition is now trying to set up an international mechanism for systematic assessment and updates on the situation of returning operatives. According to him, they are encouraging and even obligating countries to share information on foreign fighters, including biometric information, and to create an international list of these operatives (AFP, March 8, 2018). Main developments in Syria This week as well, fighting focused on eastern Al-Ghouta. Syrian media reported about the Syrian forces’ success to split eastern Al-Ghouta into two and then three parts. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 12, 2018), 1,170 people were killed in eastern Al-Ghouta in 23 days of airstrikes and Syrian army artillery fire. Syrian army tanks during the attack in eastern Al-Ghouta (Butulat Al-Jaysh Al-Suri, March 11, 2018; SANA’s YouTube channel, March 12, 2018) According to Syrian army and Syrian media reports, the Syrian forces took over 60% of the territory of eastern Al-Ghouta and managed to split the area into three parts (updated to March 12, 2018). The northern part controlled by the rebel forces includes Al- 065-18 4 Qteifa and Al-Rahiba; The southern part controlled by the rebel forces includes Duma, Harasta, and Abrin. They are separated by a “corridor” which was taken over by the Syrian regime forces, including the village of Adra (about 25 km northeast of Damascus). North of the corridor between these two enclaves there is another small enclave controlled by the Syrian army, near the main road (M-5) leading from Damascus northward (see map). Deployment of the forces in eastern Al-Ghouta (updated to March 12, 2018): The Syrian army and the forces supporting it are marked in red; Areas recently taken over by them are marked in blue; Rebel enclaves are marked in green (Murassiloun, March 13, 2018) According to the Arab newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, Russia has formulated a military plan to take over eastern Al-Ghouta. As part of this plan, eastern Al-Ghouta will be divided into two parts: a southern area and a northern area. The northern area will include Jaysh Al-Islam operatives and will be designated as an area of lesser violence. The southern area will include the Al-Rahman Corps, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, and Ahrar Al-Sham, and attacks on this area will be increased in order to drive these organizations away. Russia relies in its plan on the UN Security Council Resolution 2041, which called for a ceasefire but did not include cessation of fighting against ISIS, Al- Qaeda, or related elements (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, March 9, 2018). South of Damascus ISIS is concerned that following the fall of eastern Al-Ghouta, the Syrian forces will operate against its control area south of Damascus (mainly against the Yarmouk refugee 065-18 5 camp). ISIS has fortified the entrance to Lubia Street, in central Yarmouk refugee camp. The operatives put metal barrels full of sand and erected sheets over the streets to hide targets and protect the area against airstrikes (Qalb al-Hadith, March 8, 2018). In the meantime, an agreement was reached between the Syrian forces and the rebel organizations on the evacuation of civilians and armed operatives from the neighborhood of Al-Qadam, west of the Yarmouk refugee camp. About 1,800 armed operatives and their families reportedly left on March 13, 2018, towards the Idlib area, under the supervision of the Red Crescent2 (Khotwa; Sama, March 12 and 13, 2018). ISIS on its part claimed that the Syrian regime formulated an agreement with the rebel organizations, under which rebel positions in the neighborhood of Al-Qadam will be handed over to the Syrian army. In return, the regime forces agreed to allow 500 armed operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and other rebel organizations to leave towards the Idlib area. In response, ISIS attacked Syrian army positions in the neighborhood of Al-Qadam. ISIS claimed that ten Syrian soldiers had been killed in the attack (Haqq; Akhbar Al-Muslimeen, March 13, 2018). The neighborhood of Al-Qadam (in red) west of the Yarmouk refugee camp (Google Maps) 2 According to Al-Arabiya Al-Hadath channel, about 2,000 residents left the neighborhood of Al-Qadam, including 600 armed operatives (Al-Arabiya Al-Hadath, March 13, 2018).
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