Security Brief for Egypt Prepared On: Jul 12, 2021 5:59:41 PM UTC
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Fault Lines: Sinai Peninsula 20 OCT 2017 the Sinai Peninsula Is a Complicated Operational Environment (OE)
Fault Lines: Sinai Peninsula 20 OCT 2017 The Sinai Peninsula is a complicated operational environment (OE). At present, there are a number of interconnected conditions creating instability and fostering a favorable environment for the growth of Islamic extremist groups. Egypt is battling this situation with large-scale security operations, yet militant activity is not diminishing. The Egyptian government, in coordination with the Israeli government, is placing renewed interest on countering insurgent actors in the region and establishing a lasting security. Despite its best effort, Egypt has been largely unsuccessful. A variety of factors have contributed to the continued rise of the insurgents. We submit there are four key fault lines contributing to instability. These fault lines are neither mutually exclusive nor are they isolated to the Sinai. In fact, they are inexorably intertwined, in ways between Egypt, Israel, and the Sinai Peninsula. Issues related to faults create stability complications, legitimacy concerns, and disidentification problems that can be easily exploited by interested actors. It is essential to understand the conditions creating the faults, the escalation that results from them operating at the same time, and the potential effects for continued insecurity and ultimately instability in the region. FAULT LINES Egypt-Israel Relations - Enduring geopolitical tension between Egypt and Israel, and complex coordination needs between are “exploitable dissimilar and traditionally untrusting cultures, has potential for explosive effects on regional stability. sources of Political Instability - Continued political instability, generated from leadership turmoil, mounting security concerns, and insufficient efforts for economic development may lead to an exponentially dire security situation and direct and violent instability in the challenges to the government. -
Returnees in the Maghreb: Comparing Policies on Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia
ͳͲ RETURNEES IN THE MAGHREB: COMPARING POLICIES ON RETURNING FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS IN EGYPT, MOROCCO AND TUNISIA THOMAS RENARD (editor) Foreword by Gilles de Kerchove and Christiane Höhn ʹͲͳͻ ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS Emna Ben Mustapha Ben Arab has a PhD in Culture Studies (University of La Manouba, Tunis/ University of California at Riverside, USA/Reading University, UK). She is currently a Non-resident Fellow at the Tunisian Institute for Strategic Studies (ITES), a member of the Mediterranean Discourse on Regional Security (George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies), and professor at the University of Sfax, Tunisia. Kathya Kenza Berrada is a Research Associate at the Arab Centre for Scientific Research and Humane Studies, Rabat, Morocco. Kathya holds a master’s degree in business from Grenoble Graduate Business School. Gilles de Kerchove is the EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator. Christiane Höhn is Principal Adviser to the EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator. Allison McManus is the Research Director at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. She holds an MA in global and international studies from University of California, Santa Barbara and a BA in international relations and French from Tufts University. Thomas Renard is Senior Research Fellow at the Egmont Institute, and Adjunct Professor at the Vesalius College. Sabina Wölkner is Head of the Team Agenda 2030 at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Berlin. Prior to this, Sabina was in charge of the Multinational Development Policy Dialogue of KAS Brussels until March 2019. From 2009-2014, she worked in Bosnia and Herzegovina and headed the foundation's country programme. Sabina joined KAS in 2006. -
Geopolitical Overview of Conflicts 2017
Geopolitical overview of Spanish Institute of conflicts 2017 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Geopolitical overview Spanish Institute of of conflicts 2017 Strategic Studies MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA SPANISH OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS CATALOGUE http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Author and Publisher, 2018 NIPO: 083-16-308-8 (print on demand) NIPO: 083-16-309-3 (e-book edition) Publication date: july 2018 The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photo- copies or any other means without prior, express, written consent of the © copyright holders. ÍNDICE Page Chapter one Mali: Obstacles and Responses to a Complex Threat ............................................... 11 Jesús Díez Alcalde Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 13 Background ................................................................................................................................... 14 Current status of the conflict ...................................................................................................... 20 The role of external players ..................................................................................................... -
Egypt: Background and U.S
Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations Updated June 7, 2018 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov RL33003 Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations Summary This report provides an overview of the key issues for Congress related to Egypt and U.S. foreign aid to Egypt. Historically, Egypt has been an important country for U.S. national security interests based on its geography, demography, and diplomatic posture. The United States has provided significant military and economic assistance to Egypt since the late 1970s. Successive U.S. Administrations have justified aid to Egypt as an investment in regional stability, built primarily on long-running cooperation with the Egyptian military and on sustaining the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Additionally, U.S. leaders have consistently expressed concerns about governance and human rights in Egypt, and differences over these issues have tested bilateral relations repeatedly in recent years. In 2011, the United States encouraged Egypt’s long-serving President Hosni Mubarak to step down in the face of a popular uprising, and revised U.S. assistance programs two years later, when the Egyptian military intervened to oust Mubarak’s elected successor, Muhammad Morsi, amid popular demands. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi, who led the 2013 military intervention and was elected in mid-2014, reportedly has high hopes for improving bilateral relations through engagement with the Trump Administration. President Trump has sought to improve U.S. relations with Egypt, which were perceived as strained under President Obama. Nevertheless, Administration officials have raised concerns about Egypt’s new NGO law and the continued detention of American citizens in Egypt. -
March 8-14, 2018
רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ה ש ל מ ( ( למ מ"ל Spotlight on Global Jihad March 8-14 , 2018 Main events of the week This week, the fighting in Syria was concentrated in eastern Al-Ghouta, where the Syrian forces managed to divide the area controlled by the rebel organizations into three parts. The Syrian forces continue their ground fighting with air support, while the local residents are in severe distress. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), 1,170 people were killed in eastern Al-Ghouta in 23 days of airstrikes and artillery shelling by the Syrian army. South of the city of Damascus, ISIS, which controls most of the area of the Yarmouk refugee camp, is preparing for the possibility that the Syrian effort will be directed against it after the fall of eastern Al-Ghouta. The other rebel organizations operating in the area prefer evacuation over cooperation with ISIS. This week, an agreement was reached in which some 1,800 militants and their families were evacuated from the Al-Qadam neighborhood (west of the Yarmouk refugee camp) to the Idlib area. ISIS accused the rebel organizations of having agreed to give their positions in Al-Qadam to the Syrian army in exchange for evacuation from the neighborhood. Another site of fighting is the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in northwestern Syria. This week, the Turkish army announced that, together with the Free Syrian Army, it had completed the encirclement of Afrin as part of Operation Olive Leaf. -
Crash Investigation Keith Rankin, 7 November 2015
Crash Investigation Keith Rankin, 7 November 2015 One television programme I find quite compelling is National Geographic's Air Crash Investigation, or 'Mayday' when it's screened on Prime. Indeed the crash of the Air New Zealand test flight near Perpignan in France on 29 November 2008 has featured on this programme, though I recall no major news reportage at the time the case was finally resolved. (See Final moments of Air NZ test flight, Stuff 3 March 2014.) There's the painstaking use of the scientific method that accompanies a truly professional inquiry. Different hypothetical causes of a crash are systematically tested and then ruled out (disproved). Then there's the fact that catastrophic outcomes generally have multiple causes, including human error arising usually from confusion or deference. If something – even something major – goes wrong in the mechanics of a modern airliner, that aircraft can usually still be guided towards a non-catastrophic outcome, if the people concerned make the optimal decisions. New Zealand is not covered in glory when it comes to major crash investigations. The 29 November 1978 crash on My Erebus was subject to two major investigations which yielded two apparently conflicting culprits. The reality of course is that both findings were correct, but that neither told the whole story. The airline did mis-programme the DC10 aircraft, and tried to cover up their mistake. Yet the pilots should never have been flying at low altitude anywhere vaguely near a mountain that they couldn't see. The recent investigation into the 4 September 2010 Fox Glacier crash was a fiasco. -
Commentaries
Commentaries Draining the Swamp? Egypt’s Intractable Challenge in Containing the Sinai Insurgency Saud al-Sarhan King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Riyadh. Sebastian Maier Middle East Director, GMTL Political Risk, London. During Friday prayers on November 24, 2017, militants staged a coordinated attack on the al-Rawda mosque in the town of Bir al-Abed, the home of one of the largest Sufi orders in the North Sinai governorate. With an appallingly high confirmed 305 killed and more than 100 injured. This despicable act of barbarity marks, by all appearances, the deadliest terrorist atrocity to ever occur on Egyptian soil in modern times. This tragic event is a chilling reminder that perpetrators manage to blend conventional suicide attacks with increasingly complex tactics. After all, the recent attack is said to have involved more than three dozen assailants acting in a coordinated manner. One of the assailants blew himself up in the mosque, while others fired indiscriminately on the fleeing worshippers, all the while surveilling and blocking the adjacent streets and reportedly targeting ambulances that rushed to the scene. The Sinai peninsula, and, in particular, the affected land strip in the vicinity of the northern coastal town of El-Arish, has been the staging ground for a variety of spectacular militant attacks in recent years. In 2015, a suicide bombing and subsequent shooting shattered the Swiss Inn Resort in Arish, while in October 2014 and March 2016 local security checkpoints were targeted, killing dozens of security personnel from both the army and the police. In all instances, the local ISIS offshoot, Wilayat Sinai, has claimed responsibility, including in 2015 when it brought down Russian Metrojet flight 9268 from the resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, ultimately killing all 224 passengers and crew on board. -
Terrorism and the Rise of ISIS in Egypt
BearWorks MSU Graduate Theses Fall 2015 Terrorism and the Rise of ISIS in Egypt Jantzen William Garnett As with any intellectual project, the content and views expressed in this thesis may be considered objectionable by some readers. However, this student-scholar’s work has been judged to have academic value by the student’s thesis committee members trained in the discipline. The content and views expressed in this thesis are those of the student-scholar and are not endorsed by Missouri State University, its Graduate College, or its employees. Follow this and additional works at: https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/theses Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons Recommended Citation Garnett, Jantzen William, "Terrorism and the Rise of ISIS in Egypt" (2015). MSU Graduate Theses. 2551. https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/theses/2551 This article or document was made available through BearWorks, the institutional repository of Missouri State University. The work contained in it may be protected by copyright and require permission of the copyright holder for reuse or redistribution. For more information, please contact [email protected]. TERRORISM AND THE RISE OF ISIS IN EGYPT A Masters Thesis Presented to The Graduate College of Missouri State University TEMPLATE In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science, Defense and Strategic Studies By Jantzen W. Garnett December 2015 Copyright 2015 by Jantzen William Marlow Garnett ii TERRORISM AND THE RISE OF ISIS IN EGYPT Defense and Strategic Studies Missouri State University, December 2015 Master of Science Jantzen W. Garnett ABSTRACT Using mostly primary source materials this thesis seeks to understand the evolution of and linkages between different terrorist organization that have operated in Egypt and the Sinai, in particular. -
Download the Full Report
HUMAN RIGHTS “Look for Another Homeland” Forced Evictions in Egypt’s Rafah WATCH “Look for Another Homeland” Forced Evictions in Egypt’s Rafah Copyright © 2015 Human Rights Watch All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-62313-2767 Cover design by Rafael Jimenez Human Rights Watch defends the rights of people worldwide. We scrupulously investigate abuses, expose the facts widely, and pressure those with power to respect rights and secure justice. Human Rights Watch is an independent, international organization that works as part of a vibrant movement to uphold human dignity and advance the cause of human rights for all. Human Rights Watch is an international organization with staff in more than 40 countries, and offices in Amsterdam, Beirut, Berlin, Brussels, Chicago, Geneva, Goma, Johannesburg, London, Los Angeles, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, Tunis, Washington DC, and Zurich. For more information, please visit our website: http://www.hrw.org SEPTEMBER 2015 ISBN: 978-1-62313-2767 “Look for Another Homeland” Forced Evictions in Egypt’s Rafah Summary ........................................................................................................................... 1 Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 17 To the Egyptian Government ................................................................................................... 17 To the United States: ............................................................................................................. -
Islamic State Vs. Al-Qaeda
NEW INTERNATIONAL AMERICA SECURITY DAVEED GARTENSTEIN-ROSS, JASON FRITZ, BRIDGET MORENG AND NATHANIEL BARR ISLAMIC STATE VS. AL-QAEDA STRATEGIC DIMENSIONS OF A PATRICIDAL CONFLICT DECEMBER 2015 About the Authors Daveed Gartenstein-Ross’s academic Nathaniel Barr is an analyst at Valens and professional work has focused on Global whose work focuses on violent non- understanding the evolving role of violent state actors in North Africa, the Sahel, and non-state actors in the world, with a the Horn of Africa. Barr has co-authored concentration in al-Qaeda and the Islamic four monographs, including a report State. He is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense examining the Islamic State’s propaganda strategy, and of Democracies and the chief executive officer of the has been published in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and consulting firm Valens Global. An adjunct professor Jamestown Foundation’s Militant Leadership Monitor. at Georgetown University and lecturer at the Catholic Before coming to Valens Global, Barr worked as a research University of America, Gartenstein-Ross is the author assistant with the Western Jihadism Project, a research or volume editor of nineteen books and monographs, project funded by the National Institute of Justice that including Bin Laden’s Legacy, which Georgetown explores radicalization and salafi jihadist networks in the University terrorism scholar Bruce Hoffman described West. Barr received his bachelor’s degree from Brandeis as “one of the few books to probe systematically [al- University. Qaeda’s] strategy and its effect on the U.S. and its allies.” Gartenstein-Ross has also been published widely in the academic and popular press, including in The New Jason Fritz is a senior researcher at York Times, The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Foreign Valens Global and a doctoral student in the Policy, and the peer-reviewed journals Studies in Conflict Department of Justice, Law and Criminology and Terrorism and Terrorism and Political Violence. -
Terrorist Attack in the Sinai Peninsula
INSIGHTi Egypt: Terrorist Attack in the Sinai Peninsula ,name redacted, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs November 27, 2017 Background Terrorists based in the Sinai Peninsula have been waging an insurgency against the Egyptian government for more than six years. While the terrorist landscape in Egypt is evolving and encompasses several groups, Sinai Province (SP) is known as the most lethal. Since its affiliation with the Islamic State in 2014, SP has attacked the Egyptian military continually, targeted Coptic Christian individuals and places of worship, and occasionally fired rockets into Israel. In October 2015, SP targeted Russian tourists departing the Sinai by allegedly planting a bomb aboard Metrojet Flight 9268, which exploded mid-air, killing all 224 passengers and crew aboard. For U.S. policymakers, including Congress, continued terrorist attacks in the Sinai Peninsula raise concerns over Egypt’s stability, the security of neighboring Israel, the safety of U.S. military personnel serving as peacekeepers in the Multinational Force and Observers, and the growing capabilities of terrorist groups based in Egypt. The November 24, 2017, Attack On November 24, approximately 25-30 gunmen launched a coordinated attack against the Al Rawdah mosque in the town of Bir al Abed in northern Sinai, killing at least 305 people in the deadliest terrorist attack in Egypt’s modern history. According to Egyptian authorities, the terrorists drove up to the mosque in five vehicles carrying flags of the Islamic State before they detonated bombs inside the mosque and shot worshippers both inside and outside. According to the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, the November 24 attack “brings the total attacks in 2017 to over 338, with at least 322 and 401 security forces and civilians killed in attacks.” Congressional Research Service 7-... -
Boko Haram, Iran, and Syria
SEPT 2016 Vol 2 Thr eat Tactics Report Thr eat Tactics Report Compendium Compendium BBookk oo HHaarraamm,, IIrraann,, aanndd SSyyrriiaa Includes a sampling of Threat Action Reports and Red Diamond articles TRADOC G-2 ACE Threats Integration DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Threat Tactics Report Compendium, Vol 2 Introduction TRADOC G-2 ACE Threats Integration (ACE-TI) is the source of the Threat Tactics Report (TTR) series of products. TTRs serve to explain to the Army training community how an actor fights. Elements that contribute to this understanding may include an actor’s doctrine, force structure, weapons and equipment, education, and warfighting functions. An explanation of an actor’s tactics and techniques is provided in detail along with recent examples of tactical actions, if they exist. An actor may be regular or irregular, and a TTR will have a discussion of what a particular actor’s capabilities mean to the US and its allies. An important element of any TTR is the comparison of the real-world tactics to threat doctrinal concepts and terminology. A TTR will also identify where the conditions specific to the actor are present in the Decisive Action Training Environment (DATE) and other training materials so that these conditions can easily be implemented across all training venues. Volume 2: Boko Haram, Iran, and Syria This compendium of Threat Tactics Reports, Volume 2, features the most current versions of three TTRs: Boko Haram (Version 1.0, published October 2015); Iran (Version 1.0, published June 2016); and Syria (Version 1.0, published February 2016).