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OSZE-Jahrbuch 2014 osze 20 Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg / IFSH (Hrsg.) OSZE-Jahrbuch 2014 Jahrbuch zur Organisation für Sicherheit und Zusammenarbeit in Europa (OSZE) Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik Hamburg (Hrsg.) • OSZE-Jahrbuch osze 2014 Nomos BUC_OSZE_2014_2779-7_HC.indd 1 05.10.15 12:56 Die Aufsätze aus dem OSZE-Jahrbuch werden in der Datenbank World Affairs Online (WAO) nachgewiesen und sind im Fachportal IREON recherchierbar. Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. ISBN 978-3-8487-2779-7 (Print) ISBN 978-3-8452-7164-4 (ePDF) 1. Auflage 2015 © Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden 2015. Printed in Germany. Alle Rechte, auch die des Nachdrucks von Auszügen, der fotomechanischen Wiedergabe und der Über- setzung, vorbehalten. Gedruckt auf alterungsbeständigem Papier. BUT_OSZE_2014_2779-7.indd 4 27.11.15 12:50 Inhalt Ursel Schlichting Vorwort 9 Reinhard Mutz/Götz Neuneck Spiritus Rector und Mann der ersten Stunde. Zum Gedenken an Jonathan Dean 19 I. Zur Lage Die OSZE und die europäische Sicherheit Themenschwerpunkt: Helsinki+40 und die Krise in der und um die Ukraine Heidi Grau Der Schweizer OSZE-Vorsitz 2014: zwischen „Routine“ und „Krise“ 27 Marianne von Grünigen/Hans-Jörg Renk 40 Jahre Schlussakte von Helsinki – ein Grund zum Feiern? 45 Igor Iwanow Europa braucht die OSZE – heute wie vor 40 Jahren 59 Ivica Dačić 40 Jahre OSZE – was der serbische Vorsitz im Jubiläumsjahr erreichen will 67 Fred Tanner Helsinki+40 und die Krise in der Ukraine 75 Jafar Usmanov OSZE-Feldoperationen im Rahmen des Helsinki+40-Prozesses: die Präsenz in Tadschikistan als Fallbeispiel 91 Lamberto Zannier Die OSZE und Kapitel VIII der Charta der Vereinten Nationen – ein Beitrag zum Weltfrieden und zur internationalen Sicherheit 107 5 Steven Pifer Die Beziehungen zwischen den USA und Russland in der Ära Obama: vom Neustart zu erneutem Stillstand 123 Die OSZE-Teilnehmerstaaten: innere Entwicklungen und multilaterales Engagement Hendrik Meurs Mechanismen und Inszenierungen zur Absicherung und Legitimation des Herrschaftssystems in Turkmenistan 141 Graeme Currie Ausgeträumt: das schottische Unabhängigkeitsreferendum von 2014 155 Adiyasuren Jamiyandagva Die Mongolei und die OSZE 173 II. Aufgaben, Instrumente, Mechanismen und Verfahren Konfliktprävention und Streitschlichtung P. Terrence Hopmann Die Vermittlertätigkeit der Minsk-Gruppe im Berg-Karabach-Konflikt: der Umgang mit einem „unlösbaren Konflikt“ 187 Themenschwerpunk: Die Krise in der und um die Ukraine Claus Neukirch Die Sonderbeobachtermission in der Ukraine: operative Herausforderungen und neue Horizonte 205 Graeme P. Herd Russland und die Ukraine: Ein Sieg ist nicht möglich – eine Niederlage ist keine Option 223 Tatyana Parkhalina Was treibt Russland an? 243 6 Iryna Solonenko Die ukrainische Zivilgesellschaft von der Orangen Revolution bis zum Euromaidan: die Suche nach einem neuen Gesellschaftsvertrag 249 Pál Dunay Die Auswirkungen der Ukraine-Krise auf die europäische und die euroatlantische Sicherheit – und was wir daraus lernen können 269 Umfassende Sicherheit: die drei Dimensionen und dimensionenübergreifende Herausforderungen Francesco Marchesano Wahlbeobachtung als Streitpunkt zwischen der Russischen Föderation und dem BDIMR 297 Rüdiger Lüdeking Militärische Vertrauensbildung und konventionelle Rüstungskontrolle in Europa vor dem Hintergrund der Ukraine-Krise 311 III. Zur Organisation OSZE-Institutionen und -Strukturen Shairbek Juraev Die OSZE-Akademie: Engagement für langfristige und umfassende Sicherheit in Zentralasien 325 Außenbeziehungen und Einflüsse Sebastian Schiek Der Afghanistankonflikt als Machtressource für Zentralasien? 341 Loïc Simonet Die OSZE-Mittelmeerpartnerschaft vier Jahre nach Beginn des „Arabischen Frühlings“ 357 Dimitar Paunov Beruht die Zusammenarbeit zwischen der EU und der OSZE auf Gegenseitigkeit? 383 7 Anhang Kooperationsformen und -foren im OSZE-Bereich 401 Die 57 OSZE-Teilnehmerstaaten – Daten, Fakten, Kooperationsformen 403 OSZE – Tagungen, Treffen und Termine 2013/2014 421 Literaturauswahl zur OSZE 2013/2014 425 Abkürzungsverzeichnis 439 Autorenverzeichnis 447 8 Ursel Schlichting Vorwort Die OSZE hat 2014 erheblich an Bedeutung gewonnen und international lange Zeit ungekannte Anerkennung erfahren – der Anlass ist gleichwohl dramatisch. Maidan, die Krim, Donezk und Luhansk sind die Namen, die für die größte Krise in Europa nach dem Kalten Krieg stehen: „Was als nationale politische Krise in der Ukraine begann, hat sich zu einer Krise entwickelt, die die europäische Sicherheit bedroht. […] Die Risiken einer weiteren Eskala- tion und von Fehleinschätzungen stellen die größte Gefahr für die europäi- sche Sicherheit der vergangenen mehr als zwanzig Jahre dar.“1 Die OSZE, die im Zuge des Konflikts 2014 zum „wichtigsten multilateralen Akteur“2 wurde, verdankt ihre Aufwertung in erster Linie ihrer raschen Reak- tion unter dem Schweizer OSZE-Vorsitz auf die Ereignisse in der Ukraine. Die notwendigen Voraussetzungen dafür brachte sie allerdings bereits mit: ihren Charakter als Dialogforum, insbesondere für den Sicherheitsdialog, ihren inklusiven Teilnehmerkreis, ihr umfassendes Sicherheitsverständnis, aber auch die Tatsache, dass sie – anders als andere Akteure – nicht als direkt oder indirekt am Konflikt Beteiligter betrachtet wurde. Vor allem seit 2011 war zudem ihr Instrumentarium zur systematischen Frühwarnung und zur raschen Krisenreaktion sowie zur Dialogerleichterung, Mediation und Me- diationsunterstützung verstärkt weiterentwickelt worden.3 Bereits im Februar 2014 leitete die OSZE unter dem Schweizer Vorsitz in- tensive Beobachtungs- und Vermittlungsbemühungen ein.4 So ernannte der Amtierende Vorsitzende der OSZE, Didier Burkhalter, am 24. Februar den Schweizer Diplomaten Tim Guldimann zu seinem Persönlichen Gesandten, der die Maßnahmen der Organisation in der Ukraine leiten und koordinieren sollte und bereits im Februar nach Kiew und Anfang März auf die Krim reiste. Ebenfalls bereits im März reisten die Hohe Kommissarin der OSZE für nationale Minderheiten (HKNM) Astrid Thors und die OSZE-Medienbeauf- tragte Dunja Mijatović erstmals nach Kiew und auf die Krim, um sich per- 1 Wolfgang Ischinger, Die Ukraine-Krise und die Sicherheit Europas, in: FAZ.NET, 31. August 2014, unter: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/die-gegenwart/ukraine-die- ukraine-krise-und-die-sicherheit-europas-13128147.html. 2 Zentrum für internationale Friedenseinsätze, Die OSZE und der Waffenstillstand in der Ukraine: Vermitteln, Beobachten, Überwachen, unter: http://www.zif-berlin.org/ fileadmin/uploads/analyse/dokumente/veroeffentlichungen/ZIF_kompakt_OSZE_Ukraine _Waffenstillstand.pdf. 3 Vgl. Claus Neukirch, Frühwarnung und frühzeitiges Handeln – aktuelle Entwicklungen in der Konfliktverhütungstätigkeit der OSZE, in: Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicher- heitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg/IFSH (Hrsg.), OSZE-Jahrbuch 2013, Baden- Baden 2014, S. 133-144. 4 Kontinuierlich aktualisierte Berichte, Factsheets und eine Chronologie zur Reaktion der OSZE auf die Krise unter: http://www.osce.org. 9 sönlich ein Bild von der Situation zu machen. Ende März entsandte die OSZE 15 internationale Experten im Rahmen eines Sonderprojekts des Pro- jektkoordinators in der Ukraine, des „National Dialogue Project“, für vier Wochen nach Odessa, Charkiw, Luhansk, Dnepropetrowsk, Donezk und Lviv. Sie hatten den Auftrag, in Gesprächen mit Vertretern staatlicher Insti- tutionen, lokaler Behörden und NGOs Bereiche zu ermitteln, in denen weite- re Maßnahmen zur Vermittlung und Vertrauensbildung zwischen den ver- schiedenen Bevölkerungsgruppen unternommen werden sollten, und Infor- mationen, insbesondere über politische, humanitäre und Minderheiten betref- fende Fragen, zu sammeln. Bereits am 5. März 2014 hatten mehrere OSZE-Staaten unbewaffnete Mili- tärbeobachter in die Ukraine entsandt, die in kleinen Teams militärische Aktivitäten im Süden und Osten des Landes beobachten und darüber berich- ten sollten, denen allerdings der Zugang zur Krim verwehrt blieb. Die Mili- tärbeobachter wurden zwar formal im bilateralen Rahmen, d.h. im Namen ihrer Entsendeländer und auf Einladung der Ukraine, tätig. Die Einladung erfolgte jedoch an die Teilnehmerstaaten, die Kooperationspartner und das Konfliktverhütungszentrum der OSZE unter Berufung auf Kapitel III des Wiener Dokuments über vertrauens- und sicherheitsbildende Maßnahmen. Kapitel III trägt den Titel „Verminderung der Risiken“ und ermöglicht die „freiwillige Veranstaltung von Besuchen zur Beseitigung von Besorgnissen über militärische Aktivitäten“ (Artikel 18) auf Einladung des betroffenen Staates. Bis zum 20. März hatten insgesamt 30 OSZE-Teilnehmerstaaten 56 unbewaffnete militärische und zivile Beobachter in die Ukraine entsandt. Seitdem halten sich kleinere aus unbewaffneten Militärexperten bestehende Inspektionsteams zur Fortsetzung der Verifikationsmaßnahmen unter dem Wiener Dokument sowohl in der Ukraine als auch in Russland auf. Herzstück der OSZE-Beobachtertätigkeit in der Ukraine ist die Sonderbeob- achtermission der OSZE in der Ukraine (OSCE Special Monitoring Mission, SMM), deren Entsendung am 21. März 2014 im Ständigen Rat der OSZE von allen 57 OSZE-Teilnehmerstaaten im Konsens beschlossen wurde5 – ein Beschluss, den der Amtierende Vorsitz als „Meilenstein“ bezeichnet hat.6 Die ersten Vorausgruppen trafen am 22. März in der Ukraine ein. Die
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