Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy Hamburg (ed.) osC e 20 Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg / IFSH (ed.) OSCE Yearbook 2014 Yearbook on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) • OSCE Yearbook osCe 2014 Nomos BUC_OSCE_2014_1749-1_HC.indd 1 18.02.15 08:36 Articles of the OSCE Yearbook are indexed in World Affairs Online (WAO), accessible via the IREON portal. Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de ISBN 978-3-8487-1749-1 (Print) 978-3-8452-6094-5 (ePDF) British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-3-8487-1749-1 (Print) 978-3-8452-6094-5 (ePDF) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg/IFSH (ed.) OSCE Yearbook 2014 Yearbook on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) IFSH 402 p. Includes bibliographic references. ISBN 978-3-8487-1749-1 (Print) 978-3-8452-6094-5 (ePDF) 1. Edition 2015 © Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, Germany 2015. Printed and bound in Germany. This work is subject to copyright. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers. Under § 54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use a fee is payable to “Verwertungs gesellschaft Wort”, Munich. No responsibility for loss caused to any individual or organization acting on or refrain- ing from action as a result of the material in this publication can be accepted by Nomos, Bloomsbury or the editor. BUT_OSCE_2014_1749-1_Koop_Bb.indd 4 20.02.15 09:58 Contents Ursel Schlichting Preface 9 Reinhard Mutz/Götz Neuneck Guiding Spirit and Man of the First Hour. In Memoriam: Jonathan Dean 17 I. States of Affairs – Affairs of State The OSCE and European Security: Focus on Helsinki +40 against the Background of the Ukraine Crisis Heidi Grau The 2014 Swiss OSCE Chairmanship: Between “Routine” and “Crisis” 25 Marianne von Grünigen/Hans-Jörg Renk Forty Years of the Helsinki Final Act – A Cause for Celebration? 41 Igor Ivanov Europe Needs the OSCE, Just As It Did 40 Years Ago 53 Ivica Dačić Approaching Four Decades – What the Serbian Chairmanship Wishes to Achieve in the OSCE’s Jubilee Year 61 Fred Tanner Helsinki +40 and the Crisis in Ukraine 69 Jafar Usmanov OSCE Field Operations in the Helsinki +40 Process: A Case Study on the Presence in Tajikistan 83 Lamberto Zannier The OSCE and Chapter VIII of the United Nations Charter – Contributing to Global Peace and Security 97 5 Steven Pifer US-Russia Relations in the Obama Era: From Reset to Refreeze? 111 The OSCE Participating States: Domestic Developments and Multilateral Commitment Hendrik Meurs Staging Legitimacy: Mechanisms for Power Retention in Turkmenistan 127 Graeme Currie Broken Dreaming: The 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum 141 Adiyasuren Jamiyandagva Mongolia and the OSCE 155 II. Responsibilities, Instruments, Mechanisms, and Procedures Conflict Prevention and Dispute Settlement P. Terrence Hopmann Minsk Group Mediation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Confronting an “Intractable Conflict” 167 Focus on the Ukraine Crisis Claus Neukirch The Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine: Operational Challenges and New Horizons 183 Graeme P. Herd Russia and Ukraine: Victory Is not Possible; Defeat Is not an Option 199 Tatyana Parkhalina What Makes Russia Tick? 215 6 Iryna Solonenko Ukrainian Civil Society from the Orange Revolution to Euromaidan: Striving for a New Social Contract 219 Pál Dunay Lessons to Learn: The Effect of the Ukraine Crisis on European and Euro-Atlantic Security 237 Comprehensive Security: The Three Dimensions and Cross-Dimensional Challenges Francesco Marchesano Election Observation as a Point of Contention between the Russian Federation and ODIHR 263 Rüdiger Lüdeking Military Confidence-Building and Conventional Arms Control in Europe against the Background of the Ukraine Crisis 275 III. Organizational Aspects OSCE Institutions and Structures Shairbek Juraev The OSCE Academy: Working for Long-Term Comprehensive Security in Central Asia 287 External Relations and Influence Sebastian Schiek The Afghanistan Conflict As a Power Resource for Central Asia? 301 Loïc Simonet The OSCE Mediterranean Partnership Four Years after the Start of the “Arab Spring” 315 Dimitar Paunov Assessing the Success of EU-OSCE Co-operation: A Case of Mutualism? 339 7 Annexes Forms and Forums of Co-operation in the OSCE Area 355 The 57 OSCE Participating States – Facts and Figures 357 OSCE Conferences, Meetings, and Events 2013/2014 375 OSCE Selected Bibliography 2013/2014 379 Abbreviations 393 Contributors 401 8 Ursel Schlichting Preface The OSCE grew significantly in prominence during 2014, achieving a level of international recognition it had not known for years – though the circum- stances under which this occurred were dramatic, to say the least. Maidan, the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk – these are the names that stand for Europe’s greatest crisis since the end of the Cold War. “What started as a national pol- itical crisis in Ukraine has developed into a crisis that threatens European se- curity. […] The risks of further escalation and of misjudgements represent the greatest danger for European security for more than 20 years.”1 The OSCE, which, during the course of the conflict, became the “most important multilateral actor”,2 owes this status upgrade primarily to its rapid reaction – under the Chairmanship of Switzerland – to events in Ukraine. However, it already possessed the necessary prerequisites: its character as a forum for dialogue, and particularly for security dialogue; its inclusive set of participants; its comprehensive concept of security; not to mention the fact that the OSCE – in contrast to other actors – was not seen as directly or indir- ectly involved in the conflict. Moreover, particularly since 2011, the OSCE has expanded its instruments for systematic early warning and rapid crisis re- action, dialogue facilitation, mediation, and mediation support.3 The OSCE commenced intensive monitoring and mediation efforts as early as February.4 On 24 February, the Chairperson-in-Office (CiO), Didier Burkhalter, appointed the Swiss diplomat Tim Guldimann as his Personal Envoy. Ambassador Guldimann was charged with leading and co-ordinating the Organization’s activities in Ukraine and visited Kyiv for the first time in February and Crimea in early March. Also in March, the OSCE High Com- missioner on National Minorities (HCNM), Astrid Thors, and the OSCE Rep- resentative on Freedom of the Media (RFOM), Dunja Mijatović, made their first visits to Kyiv and Crimea to see the situation in person. At the end of 1 Wolfgang Ischinger, Die Ukraine-Krise und die Sicherheit Europas [The Ukraine Crisis and the Security of Europe], in: FAZ.NET, 31 August 2014, at: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/ politik/die-gegenwart/ukraine-die-ukraine-krise-und-die-sicherheit-europas- 13128147.html (author’s translation). 2 Zentrum für internationale Friedenseinsätze, Die OSZE und der Waffenstillstand in der Ukraine: Vermitteln, Beobachten, Überwachen [The OSCE and the Ceasefire in Ukraine: Mediation, Observation, Monitoring], at: http://www.zif-berlin.org/fileadmin/uploads/ analyse/dokumente/veroeffentlichungen/ZIF_kompakt_OSZE_Ukraine_Waffenstillstand. pdf. 3 Cf. Claus Neukirch, Early Warning and Early Action – Current Developments in OSCE Conflict Prevention Activities, in: Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg/IFSH (ed.), OSCE Yearbook 2013, Baden-Baden 2014, pp. 123- 133. 4 Regularly updated reports, fact sheets, and a timeline of the OSCE’s response to the crisis can be found at: http://www.osce.org. 9 March, the OSCE dispatched 15 international experts for four weeks to Odessa, Kharkiv/Luhansk, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Lviv as part of a special “National Dialogue Project” organized by the OSCE Project Co- ordinator in Ukraine. They were tasked with holding discussions with repre- sentatives of state institutions, local authorities, and NGOs to determine where further measures should be undertaken for mediation and confidence- building between the various population groups, and to gather information on political, humanitarian, and minority-related questions, in particular. Several OSCE States sent unarmed military observers to Ukraine as early as 5 March 2014. They worked in small teams to monitor and report on military activities in the south and east of the country. They were, however, refused entry to Crimea. While the activities of these military observers were formally governed by bilateral arrangements – they acted in the name of their country of origin and on invitation of Ukraine – Ukraine requested OSCE participating States, OSCE Partners for Co-operation, and the OSCE Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC) with reference to Chapter III of the Vienna Docu- ment. Chapter III is entitled “Risk Reduction” and authorizes “voluntary hosting of visits to dispel concerns about military activities” (Article 18) on invitation of the affected state. By 20 March, a total of 30 participating States had dispatched 56 unarmed military and civilian