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EMERGING MARKETS: Elections, Political Risk & Reform Outlook Macro | June 17, 2020 EMERGING MARKETS: Elections, Political Risk & Reform Outlook Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table (click below on 'View PDF') summarizes the impact of elections in EMs over the next 12 months. Markets are ordered in accordance with the electoral calendar. Risk ratings are relative to each country, and not comparative across all countries listed. The table is intended as a summary, not to replace our deeper analysis and so, as ever, we welcome your comments. Our analysts are ready to discuss these issues as they affect specific markets in greater detail. Client Portal >> Macro Research +44 20 7186 8894 [email protected] © 2020 Teneo. All rights reserved. This material was produced by Teneo for use solely by the recipient. This communication is intended as general background research and is not intended to constitute advice on any particular commercial investment or trade matter or issue and should not be relied upon for such purposes. The views expressed here represent opinions as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but no guarantees can be given as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the prior consent of Teneo. Emerging Markets: H2 2020 & H1 2021 Elections, Political Risk & Reform Outlook COUNTRY ELECTORAL LIKELY WINNER OF POLITICAL RISK OF POLITICAL OUTLOOK FOR CALENDAR ELECTORAL CONTEST/S STABILITY - SOCIAL RISK OVER STRUCTURAL TRAJECTORY UNREST NEXT 12 REFORMS OVER MONTHS NEXT 12 MONTHS SRI LANKA Parliamentary elections Coalitions are in the making but Positive Low Medium Positive expected to be held sometime caretaker Prime Minister Mahinda after 20 June 2020 Rajapaksa likely to return, displacing outgoing coalition led by Ranil Wickeremesinghe SERBIA Parliamentary, provincial Aleksandar Vucic — For Our Children Neutral High Medium Neutral and local election coalition led by the ruling Serbian (held in parallel) Progressive Party 21 June 2020 (Postponed from 26 April) POLAND Presidential election Close race between incumbent Neutral if Medium Medium Neutral 1st round: 28 June 2020 Andrzej Duda and key opposition Duda wins 2nd round, if needed: 12 July candidate Rafal Trzaskowski Negative if (Postponed from 10 May) Trzaskowski wins RUSSIA "All Russian" vote on Amendments are likely to be Neutral High Medium Neutral constitutional amendments approved 1 July 2020 (Postponed from 22 April, voting starts 25 June) CROATIA Parliamentary election Close race between the ruling Neutral Low Low Neutral 5 July 2020 Croatian Democratic Union and the Restrat Coalition led by opposition Social Democratic Party IRAN Second-round majles Conservative forces have a lock on Neutral High High Neutral (parliamentary) elections parliament. Revolutionary Guard is a 19 July 2020 rising force in domestic politics ETHIOPIA Election of House of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Negative High High Neutral People's Representatives Prosperty Party; but the PP could face & Regional State Councils significant challenges from regional Postponed beyond August opposition parties due to pandemic, signaling constitutional crisis ROMANIA Local election The ruling National Liberal Party Neutral Low Low Neutral Autumn 2020 JORDAN House of Deputies election Jordanian politics are heavily Neutral Medium Medium Neutral 30 September 2020 managed, and no surprises are expected UKRAINE Local election The ruling Servant of the People party Neutral Medium Medium Neutral October 2020 TANZANIA General election President John Magufuli, Ruling Negative Medium High Negative October 2020 Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM); margin will be crucial CZECH Election of one-third (27/81) Close race between Mayors and Neutral Low Low Neutral REPUBLIC of deputies to the upper Independents and Civic Democratic house of parliament (Senate) Party 1st round: 2-3 October 2020 2nd round: 9-10 October 2020 CZECH Regional election Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) Neutral Medium Low Neutral REPUBLIC (except Prague) 2-3 October 2020 BRAZIL Municipal elections Traditional parties with more capilarity Medium Medium Medium Positive 1st round: 4 October 2020 (MDB, PT, PSDB) should remain the 2nd round: 25 October 2020 driving force in the elections, but new High probability of the parties, such as liberal NOVO and elections being postponed for conservative PSL should gain some one or two months; Congress ground to make a decision in June LITHUANIA Parliamentary election Opposition Homeland Union - Neutral Low Low Positive 1st round: 11 October 2020 Lithuanian Christian Democrats 2nd round: 25 October 2020 CHILE Referendum on Green light for new constitution; Neutral Medium Medium Neutral constitutional change choice of method to undertake 25 October 2020 change uncertain but 100% elected (Postponed from April 2020) constituent assembly most likely outcome COTE D'IVOIRE Presidential & National Ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Negative High Medium Negative Assembly elections Democracy and Peace (RHDP) 31 October 2020 INDIA State of Bihar assembly The current coalition of regional party Positive Low Low Positive elections due before Janata Dal United and Bharatiya November 2020 Janata Party (BJP) is expected to return MYANMAR General elections (national, National League for Democracy Neutral Low Low Neutral/Positive state and regional levels) November 2020 ROMANIA Parliamentary election The ruling National Liberal Party Neutral Low Medium Positive November/December 2020 EGYPT People's Assembly elections The overwhelming majority of Egypt's Neutral Medium Medium Negative December 2020 parliament supports the president, and this will not change KUWAIT Parliamentary elections Kuwait has been hit hard by lower oil Medium Low Low Negative December 2020 prices, but the parliament has been resistant to cutting benefits for fear of alienating electorate. The Emir is 90; his passing in the midst of belt- tightening could create confusion VENEZUELA National Assembly elections It is not clear whether President Negative High High Negative - theoretically scheduled for Nicolas Maduro will allow the 6 December 2020 elections to go ahead; if votes but date and vote in question proceeds, high risk of vote amid continuing crisis manipulation/fraud GHANA Presidential & Ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) Neutral Low Neutral Negative parliamentary elections 7 December 2020 VIETNAM Communist Party Communist Party of Vietnam Positive Low Low Positive 13th Congress January 2021 PAKISTAN Elections for 51 seats Too early to call as the election is Positive Low Low Positive of the Senate indirect via an electoral college in On or before 6 March 2021 which members of the provincial assembly vote INDIA Four states - Assam, Kerala, BJP expected to retain Assam, Positive Low Low Positive Puducherry and Tamil Nadu Kerala's Communist government - go to the polls in might be dislodged. Congress might April-May 2021 retain Puducherry while Tamil Nadu's BJP-sympathetic coalition could be dislodged CHILE Regional and municipal Governing Chile Vamos (CV) coalition Neutral Medium Medium Neutral elections; consitutent likely to lose ground in municipal assembly elections voting 11 April 2021 (Postponed from October 2020) PERU Presidential & President Martin Vizcarra is ineligible; Neutral Low Medium Neutral legislative elections too early to say who most likely 1st round: 11 April 2021 contenders to replace him will be 2nd round, if needed: early June VIETNAM National Assembly Communist Party of Vietnam Positive Low Low Positive May 2021 MEXICO Mid-term legislative Outcome will depend on public Neutral Medium Medium Negative elections for 500-seat approval of President Andres lower house + 15 state Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and gubernatorial votes + post-pandemic economic recovery; various state assembly incumbent parties tend to be punished and mayoral elections by voters in mid-terms 6 June 2021 SOUTH AFRICA Municipal elections The ruling ANC will win the majority of Neutral Medium Medium Neutral TBC, likely H2 2021 municipalities, but opposition parties (the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba's new party) may make inroads in key urban areas, especially if unemployment and poverty surge owing to the pandemic © 2020 Teneo Holdings. All rights reserved. This material was produced by Teneo Political Risk for use solely by the recipient. This communication is intended as general background research and is not intended to constitute advice on any particular commercial investment or trade matter or issue and should not be relied upon for such purposes. The views expressed here represent opinions as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but no guarantees can be given as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the prior consent of Teneo Political Risk..
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