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Stocktaking Exercise to Identify Legal, Institutional, Vulnerability UNDP/GCF National Adaptation Plan to Advance Medium and Long-Term Adaptation Planning in Armenia Project Stocktaking exercise to identify legal, institutional, vulnerability assessment and adaptation gaps and barriers in water resources management under climate change conditions (First Draft version) Prepared by “Geoinfo” LLC June 2020 Produced by GeoInfo, Ltd., Charents 1, Yerevan, Armenia Action coordinated by Vahagn Tonoyan Date 30.04.2020 Version Draft Produced for UNDP Climate Change Program Financed by: GCF-UNDP “National Adaptation Plan to advance medium and long-term adaptation planning in Armenia” project Authors National experts: Liana Margaryan, Aleksandr Arakelyan, Edgar Misakyan, Olympia Geghamyan, Davit Zakaryan, Zara Ohanjanyan International consultant: Soroosh Sorooshian 2 Content List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 1. ANALYSIS OF POLICY, LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK OF WATER SECTOR AND IDENTIFICATION OF GAPS AND BARRIERS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ............................. 19 Summary of Chapter 1 .......................................................................................................................... 19 1.1 The concept and criteria of water resources adaptation to climate change .................................. 19 1.2. The need to reflect the reduction of water resource vulnerability and adaptation in the context of climate change and its enshrining in the RA legislation ................................................................... 22 1.2.1 The legislation of the Republic of Armenia on the reduction of water resource vulnerability and adaptability in the context of climate change ......................................................................................... 22 1.2.2 The system of authorized bodies in the field of implementation of measures for water resources adaptation to climate change and reflecting the vulnerability of water resources to climate change in the legal arrangements for issuing water use permits ................................................................................... 32 1.3. Reflecting water resources vulnerability to climate change in legal regulations on water resources monitoring ............................................................................................................................ 39 1.4 Ensuring public participation as a key factor in water resources adaptation to climate change ... 42 Conclusion of Chapter 1 ........................................................................................................................ 46 CHAPTER 2. REVIEW OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................................................................................ 46 Summary of Chapter 2 .......................................................................................................................... 47 2.1 THE ANALYSIS OF DATA AND OBSERVATIONS ................................................................................ 51 2.1.1 Assessment of the vulnerability of river flow to climate change provided in the National communications .................................................................................................................................. 51 2.1.1.1 Assessment of the vulnerability of river flow to climate change in the report on “Armenia: Climate Change Issues”, 1999 ................................................................................................................................... 51 2.1.1.2 Assessment of the vulnerability of river flow to climate change in the Second National Communication to UNFCCC of Armenia ...................................................................................................... 52 2.1.1.3 Assessment of the vulnerability of river flow to climate change in the report on Armenia’s Third National Communication ............................................................................................................................. 56 2.1.1.4 Assessment of the vulnerability of river flow to climate change in the report on “Armenia’s Fourth National Communication” ........................................................................................................................... 58 2.1.2 Assessment of the vulnerability of river flow to climate change provided in the River Basin Management Plans .............................................................................................................................. 60 2.1.2.1 Ararat RBMP (2015) ......................................................................................................................... 61 2.1.2.2 Southern RBMP (2015).................................................................................................................... 62 2.1.2.3 Akhuryan RBMP (2015) .................................................................................................................. 64 2.1.2.4 Sevan RBMP (2018) .......................................................................................................................... 64 2.1.2.5 Hrazdan RBMP (2018) ...................................................................................................................... 64 2.1.3 Identification of the gaps and barriers in reports on the assessment of the RA water resources vulnerability to climate changes officially published in 2008-2018 ............................................................ 65 2.1.4 Identification of the issues in the assessment of the RA water resources vulnerability........................ 67 3 2.2 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ARMENIA’S WATER RESOURCES IN TERMS OF QUANTITY DUE TO PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ........................................................................................................ 69 2.2.1 Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources within National Communications of Armenia to UNFCCC ........................................................................................................................................................... 70 2.2.2 Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources within Basin Management Area Plans ........................ 80 2.2.3 Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources due to the Climate Change within Other Studies .......... 84 2.2.4 Comparison of Vulnerability Assessment Results ............................................................................ 86 2.2.4.1 Vulnerability Assessments of the Annual River Flow for Entire Armenia ........................................ 87 2.2.4.2 Water Resources Vulnerability Assessments for the Lake Sevan Basin ........................................... 88 2.2.4.3 Water Resources Vulnerability Assessments for Some of the Main River Basins in Armenia ......... 89 2.3. ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER QUALITY OF WATER RESOURCES IN ARMENIA ............................................................................................................................................... 96 2.3.1 Assessment of climate change impact on water quality of the RA water resources provided in the National Communications .................................................................................................................... 96 2.3.2 Assessment of climate change impact on water quality of the RA water resources provided in the River basin management plans ..................................................................................................................... 99 2.4. DISCUSSION OF SHORTCOMINGS IN TERMS OF THE LIMITATIONS OF THE METHODOLOGIES AND DATA GAPS .......................................................................................................................................... 100 2.4.1 Methodology and Shortcomings in Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability under Climate Change ......................................................................................................................................................... 100 2.4.1.1 Discussion of Methodologies on Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment due to Observed Climatic Changes ........................................................................................................................................ 101 2.4.1.2 Identification of shortcomings in terms of the limitations of the methodology and data gaps .... 104 2.4.2 Methodological Shortcomings, Data Gaps, and Conclusions on Vulnerability Assessment of Armenia’s Water Resources in terms of Quantity due to Projected Climate Change ................................................. 107 2.4.2.1 Climate Models .............................................................................................................................. 107 2.4.2.2 Emission Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 107 2.4.2.3 Assessment Periods ....................................................................................................................... 108 2.4.3.4 Hydrologic Models ......................................................................................................................... 108
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