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B a R O M E T E R Bulgaria’S Political Parties Year 14, Issue 2, April - June 2014

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B a R O M E T E R Bulgaria’S Political Parties Year 14, Issue 2, April - June 2014 Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) B A R O M E T E R Bulgaria’s Political Parties Year 14, Issue 2, April - June 2014 The results of the elections for European Parliament predetermined the fate of the government. The two parties in power – BSP and MRF – did not receive sufficient electoral support to be used as reasoning for continuation of the operations of the cabinet. The decision for holding preterm parliamentary elections on October 5th is a way to resolve the political and parliamentary crisis which this country has been facing for almost one year. Inducing preterm parliamentary elections was one of the goals GERB has had over the past year. The victory in the European Parliament elections gives the party the opportunity to come to power yet again after the preterm elections. The most important question GERB has to answer regards finding partners for a future government. BSP suffered a severe loss, which means the party faces serious political challenges in the future. The decision of Stanishev to become a Member of the European Parlia- ment will probably enhance the centrifugal processes in the party in view of electing a new party leader. Despite the declaration of Stanishev that he will remain party president, this will hardly be possible, due to his engagements in Brussels. The major challenge for BSP in the forthcoming elections will be the motivation of its traditional supporters to vote. Imprint Orders All texts are available online Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung www.fes.bg 97, Knjaz Boris I St. Commercial use of all media The views expressed in this publication published by the Friedrich- are not necessarily those of the Responsible: Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the Regine Schubert, Director not permitted without the organization for which the author works. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung written consent of the FES. Office Bulgaria Analyses B AROMETE R 2/2014 1 CONTENTS 1. Political Situation .....................................................................................................................................2 2. State and Development of the party system .............................................................................................6 2.1. Trends in the Political Parties Represented in Parliament ........................................................................6 2.1.1.GERB ..................................................................................................................................................6 2.1.2. BSP ....................................................................................................................................................7 2.1.3. MRF ...................................................................................................................................................9 2.1.4. “Ataka” ...........................................................................................................................................11 2.2. Non-parliamentary Parties ...................................................................................................................12 2.2.1. Reformist Block ................................................................................................................................12 2.2.2. “Bulgaria uncensored” ....................................................................................................................13 3. Public Opinion….. ..................................................................................................................................14 4. Main Conclusions and Forecasts….. .......................................................................................................14 2 B AROMETE R 2/2014 1. Political Situation BSP admitted the loss of the elections, which was defined as severe. Party leader The past quarter was marked by the Euro- Sergei Stanishev noted that ABV running pean Parliament elections. The expectations with a separate ballot had discouraged the of a fierce and discrediting campaign did left wing voters and many of them had pre- not prove correct. It went calmly, with no ferred not to vote. serious debate on the European Agenda; MRF expressed satisfaction with the re- the parties put the emphasis mainly on in- sult achieved by the party. Lyutvi Mestan ternal political issues. stressed that, being one of the most pro- The elections were won by GERB and European parties, MRF has always regarded they received 30.4% of the valid votes. So the European Parliament Elections as ex- they have now six representatives in the EP. tremely important and this was why the BSP remained second - 18.93% of the vot- party had approached them in a respon- ers supported the party, which equals four sible way. Mestan also said that the out- seats in the European Parliament. MRF came come of the elections did not indicate any third – with a result close to BSP (17.27%), pronounced alternative, hence one should which secured also four seats in the EP. not hurry with calls for resignations. Mestan The new party, Bulgaria Uncensored, with declared that he would give BSP, as carrier Nikolai Barekov as leader, got 10.66% and of the mandate, the chance to analyze the two seats. The Reformist Block managed election results, and only then should one to overcome the threshold with a result of discuss the future of the government. 6.45% and will have one representative in People from “Ataka” declared that the the EP. As expected, the two nationalistic elections had been marred and votes had parties “Ataka” and the National Front for been bought like never before. This is why Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) did not get any the party filed a complaint with the Con- seats in Brussels. stitutional Court for their cassation, which The Alternative for Bulgarian Revival was supported by some BSP MPs. (ABV) that broke away from BSP, and is One of the major topics during the past led by former President of Bulgaria Georgi quarter was related to the South Stream Parvanov, did not overcome the threshold project. The legislative changes that the gov- either with a little more than 4%. Turn- ernment initiated in the Energy Act were out was relatively low – 36.15%, yet it was very earnestly discussed. They induced some close to the EU average. doubts that attempts were made to loop- GERB leader Boyko Borisov stated after hole the European law. Moreover, for a the elections that the government must re- long time the government did not provide sign immediately. According to Borisov, the any public information as to whether there elections demonstrated that GERB are the was a contract concluded for building the only alternative which is indicated by the South Stream. This gave grounds for some good results for the party. Borisov said that tension between the European Commission the people in government have brought and Bulgaria. Brussels threatened Sofia with this country to an economic and financial sanctions if work on the South Stream went catastrophe which will require some diffi- on and the project breached EU law. The cult reforms from the next government. European Commission requested some ex- B AROMETE R 2/2014 3 planations from Bulgaria about the intended Assembly to provide explanations on the amendments to the Energy Act that aim at South Stream project after it became clear excluding the Bulgarian part of the South that the EC had started an infringement Stream from the coverage of EU law. Energy procedure against Bulgaria and requested Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said that the project to stop. The PM admitted that there were three main legal issues regarding there was a contract for construction but Bulgaria within the scope of this project – in refused to give further information due to the area of environment, internal market and considerations of commercial secrecy. Ac- competition. These were all issues covered by cording to unofficial information spread in the third energy package of the EU. Some of the media, the company Stroytransgas of the issues were access of companies which Genadii Timchenko – close to Putin and on are not among the owners of the pipeline the EU/USA sanctions list – was appointed and do not own the transiting fuel, as well as main contractor. At the end of the day, the selection of companies for the construc- Oresharski ordered temporary stoppage of tion of the project. Oettinger criticized the the project until Brussels checks the over- tenders for the construction and said that it all process. He announced this decision of was not possible to appoint someone as a his after a meeting with US Senators led constructor or a designer; instead, a tender by John McCain, which made him a target should be organized. of criticism by nationalist formations in this In order to avoid any disputes with Brus- country. sels, Bulgarian Prime Minister Plamen Ore- In mid June GERB submitted a motion sharski authorized Commissioner Oettinger for a fifth vote of no confidence in the gov- to negotiate with Gazprom directly on the ernment – with the motive of failure of the project in its Bulgarian part. financial policy of the cabinet. 114 MPs from The South Stream became a topic in the BSP and MRF voted against the motion. pre-election campaign in this country. The “Ataka” voted in favor of overthrowing the Reformist Block accused the parties in pow- government this time round. During the de- er that the intended legislative amendments bate on the vote of no confidence motion aiming at loop-holing EU Law were made PM Oresharski
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