B a R O M E T E R Bulgaria’S Political Parties Year 14, Issue 2, April - June 2014

Home , Angel Dzhambazki, Emil Radev, Momchil, Plamen Oresharski, Radan Kanev, Socialist Party (France)

Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) B A R O M E T E R Bulgaria’s Political Parties Year 14, Issue 2, April - June 2014

The results of the elections for European Parliament predetermined the fate of the government. The two parties in power – BSP and MRF – did not receive sufficient electoral support to be used as reasoning for continuation of the operations of the cabinet. The decision for holding preterm parliamentary elections on October 5th is a way to resolve the political and parliamentary crisis which this country has been facing for almost one year.

Inducing preterm parliamentary elections was one of the goals GERB has had over the past year. The victory in the European Parliament elections gives the party the opportunity to come to power yet again after the preterm elections. The most important question GERB has to answer regards finding partners for a future government.

BSP suffered a severe loss, which means the party faces serious political challenges in the future. The decision of Stanishev to become a Member of the European Parlia- ment will probably enhance the centrifugal processes in the party in view of electing a new party leader. Despite the declaration of Stanishev that he will remain party president, this will hardly be possible, due to his engagements in Brussels. The major challenge for BSP in the forthcoming elections will be the motivation of its traditional supporters to vote.

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CONTENTS

1. Political Situation...... 2 2. State and Development of the party system...... 6 2.1. Trends in the Political Parties Represented in Parliament...... 6 2.1.1.GERB...... 6 2.1.2. BSP...... 7 2.1.3. MRF...... 9 2.1.4. “Ataka”...... 11 2.2. Non-parliamentary Parties...... 12 2.2.1. Reformist Block...... 12 2.2.2. “Bulgaria uncensored”...... 13 3. Public Opinion…...... 14 4. Main Conclusions and Forecasts…...... 14 2 B AROMETE R 2/2014

1. Political Situation BSP admitted the loss of the elections, which was defined as severe. Party leader The past quarter was marked by the Euro- Sergei Stanishev noted that ABV running pean Parliament elections. The expectations with a separate ballot had discouraged the of a fierce and discrediting campaign did left wing voters and many of them had pre- not prove correct. It went calmly, with no ferred not to vote. serious debate on the European Agenda; MRF expressed satisfaction with the re- the parties put the emphasis mainly on in- sult achieved by the party. Lyutvi Mestan ternal political issues. stressed that, being one of the most pro- The elections were won by GERB and European parties, MRF has always regarded they received 30.4% of the valid votes. So the European Parliament Elections as ex- they have now six representatives in the EP. tremely important and this was why the BSP remained second - 18.93% of the vot- party had approached them in a respon- ers supported the party, which equals four sible way. Mestan also said that the out- seats in the European Parliament. MRF came come of the elections did not indicate any third – with a result close to BSP (17.27%), pronounced alternative, hence one should which secured also four seats in the EP. not hurry with calls for resignations. Mestan The new party, Bulgaria Uncensored, with declared that he would give BSP, as carrier Nikolai Barekov as leader, got 10.66% and of the mandate, the chance to analyze the two seats. The Reformist Block managed election results, and only then should one to overcome the threshold with a result of discuss the future of the government. 6.45% and will have one representative in People from “Ataka” declared that the the EP. As expected, the two nationalistic elections had been marred and votes had parties “Ataka” and the National Front for been bought like never before. This is why Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) did not get any the party filed a complaint with the Con- seats in Brussels. stitutional Court for their cassation, which The Alternative for Bulgarian Revival was supported by some BSP MPs. (ABV) that broke away from BSP, and is One of the major topics during the past led by former President of Bulgaria Georgi quarter was related to the South Stream Parvanov, did not overcome the threshold project. The legislative changes that the gov- either with a little more than 4%. Turn- ernment initiated in the Energy Act were out was relatively low – 36.15%, yet it was very earnestly discussed. They induced some close to the EU average. doubts that attempts were made to loop- GERB leader Boyko Borisov stated after hole the European law. Moreover, for a the elections that the government must re- long time the government did not provide sign immediately. According to Borisov, the any public information as to whether there elections demonstrated that GERB are the was a contract concluded for building the only alternative which is indicated by the South Stream. This gave grounds for some good results for the party. Borisov said that tension between the European Commission the people in government have brought and Bulgaria. Brussels threatened Sofia with this country to an economic and financial sanctions if work on the South Stream went catastrophe which will require some diffi- on and the project breached EU law. The cult reforms from the next government. European Commission requested some ex- B AROMETE R 2/2014 3

planations from Bulgaria about the intended Assembly to provide explanations on the amendments to the Energy Act that aim at South Stream project after it became clear excluding the Bulgarian part of the South that the EC had started an infringement Stream from the coverage of EU law. Energy procedure against Bulgaria and requested Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said that the project to stop. The PM admitted that there were three main legal issues regarding there was a contract for construction but Bulgaria within the scope of this project – in refused to give further information due to the area of environment, internal market and considerations of commercial secrecy. Ac- competition. These were all issues covered by cording to unofficial information spread in the third energy package of the EU. Some of the media, the company Stroytransgas of the issues were access of companies which Genadii Timchenko – close to Putin and on are not among the owners of the pipeline the EU/USA sanctions list – was appointed and do not own the transiting fuel, as well as main contractor. At the end of the day, the selection of companies for the construc- Oresharski ordered temporary stoppage of tion of the project. Oettinger criticized the the project until Brussels checks the over- tenders for the construction and said that it all process. He announced this decision of was not possible to appoint someone as a his after a meeting with US Senators led constructor or a designer; instead, a tender by John McCain, which made him a target should be organized. of criticism by nationalist formations in this In order to avoid any disputes with Brus- country. sels, Bulgarian Prime Minister Plamen Ore- In mid June GERB submitted a motion sharski authorized Commissioner Oettinger for a fifth vote of no confidence in the gov- to negotiate with Gazprom directly on the ernment – with the motive of failure of the project in its Bulgarian part. financial policy of the cabinet. 114 MPs from The South Stream became a topic in the BSP and MRF voted against the motion. pre-election campaign in this country. The “Ataka” voted in favor of overthrowing the Reformist Block accused the parties in pow- government this time round. During the de- er that the intended legislative amendments bate on the vote of no confidence motion aiming at loop-holing EU Law were made PM Oresharski stated that the fiscal indica- under the dictation of Gazprom. They even tors of this country were among the best in showed documents and correspondence all EU member states. He accused the for- between the Bulgarian Energy Holding and mer government of GERB of having failed Gazprom. PM Oresharski denied the accu- the most in the policies on which they were sations and said that only topics regarding submitting the motion of no confidence. the finalization of the contract were dis- According to Oresharski the GERB govern- cussed in the Russian company. The topic of ment had increased the sovereign debt by the South Stream was the reason for GERB more than 4 billion BGN. This was also the to submit a motion for a fourth vote of no reason why the current government had to confidence – due to the failure of the gov- incur a new debt in order to repay the 4 bil- ernment in the energy sector. As expected, lion and old debts from earlier. it was rejected by the parties in power. Oresharski denied that there was a de- At the beginning of June, Plamen Ore- lay regarding proceeds in the income part sharski was summoned to the National of the budget. According to him, at the 4 B AROMETE R 2/2014

end of April, the proceeds were 30.5% of day that the bearer of the mandate is the those planned and that was the best re- one who will determine the fate of the gov- sult for the past 5 years. According to BSP ernment. The BSP leader announced that he leader Sergei Stanishev GERB had no moral was in favor of elections at the end of July right to submit a motion of no confidence and the introduction of compulsory voting. on the topic of fiscal policy because of the The idea regarding compulsory voting came accrued debt of 4 billion BGN. MRF’s Yor- as a surprise because BSP have been delay- dan Tsonev also supported the claims of ing the review of the President’s proposal Oresharski regarding the fiscal stability of for a referendum on compulsory voting for the country and defined the motives of a long time. GERB for the motion for a vote of no con- Stanishev’s proposal for compulsory vot- fidence as unfounded. ing was not supported by the members of The outcome of the European Parlia- his own party either. His idea was more a ment elections resulted in souring the rela- kind of “waving a finger” at MRF rather tions between the coalition partners – BSP than a real intention. MRF would be affect- and MRF. The leaders of both parties Sergei ed most by the possible introduction of a Stanishev and Lyutvi Mestan held talks on compulsory vote, due to the strictly deter- the fate of the cabinet but no detail was mined frames of their ethnic electorate. made public. According to sources close to Political reaction on the part of the other both parties the two of them did not reach parties represented in Parliament was not any agreement. Rumen Ovcharov from BSP long in coming. GERB insisted on the im- said that, according to his information, mediate resignation of the government Sergei Stanishev met former MRF leader and elections in the near future. “Ataka” Ahmed Dogan and requested his support suggested that the elections should take to become Prime Minister and implement place in the middle of July. MRF stated that some serious changes in the course of gov- elections earlier than the end of September ernment. would be impossible due to purely organi- Days after the meeting between Stan- zational and legislative reasons. BSP found ishev and Mestan the leadership of MRF that it would be possible after minor chang- gave a news conference which proved vital es in the electoral legislation. for the future of the government. Mestan In an attempt to reach consensus on said that the political realities do not allow issue of the elections, President Plevneliev the Oresharski Cabinet to finish its term of convened a session of the Consultative office. Mestan mentioned three possible Council for National Security (CCNS), where options for a preterm vote – elections in the current political situation in this coun- autumn next year together with the local try was discussed. The parliamentary parties elections; elections in the spring of 2015 adopted a stance whereby they consider or elections at the end of this year. Mestan that the European Parliament elections said that MRF would prefer the elections to did not add power and legitimacy to the take place by the end of the year. government to implement deep and over- The MRF news conference resulted in a all reforms. This is why the leaders of BSP, rift in relations between the two parties in GERB, MRF and “Ataka” united in favor power. Sergei Stanishev said the following of the need to hold preterm parliamentary B AROMETE R 2/2014 5

elections in the period 28 September – 12 tor’s Office why they are not interested who October 2014, for which additional consul- the actual owner of the tobacco holding is. tations would be held. Vassilev said that companies close to Peevs- At the end of June the parliamentary ki have stopped servicing their debt to the political parties reached consensus that the bank on purpose. parliamentary elections should be held on 5 The events around Tsvetan Vassilev re- October 2014. sulted in a decrease in confidence in the The crisis with the fourth largest bank in bank. Within three days only, in front of the country – Corporate Commercial Bank the bank offices around the country, there (CCB) with majority shareholder Tsvetan were long queues of depositors who start- Vassilev caused a great resonance in the ed withdrawing their deposits. This is how it public. The bank was subjected to special came to the intervention of BNB. supervision by the Bulgarian National Bank BNB Governor Ivan Iskrov reassured Bul- upon request by CCB, due to a liquidity garian citizens and said that the banking problem. This situation came about after a system in this country was stable. He stated conflict between the partners until recent- further that the bank would reopen again ly – Tsvetan Vassilev and MRF MP Delyan in a month’s time. PM Plamen Oresharski Peevski. In the middle of June the Prosecu- did not exclude the option for the bank to tor’s Office detained three persons suspect- be nationalized, but prior to that the share- ed of organizing an attempt on the life of holders would be given the chance to re- Peevski, behind which was Tsvetan Vassilev. deposit the necessary financial resources on Sofia City Court released the detainees, their own. deeming that there was no evidence what- In the middle of June the National As- soever of any crime. The Office of the Pros- sembly pronounced its stance on the refer- ecutor refused to appeal against the deci- endum regarding the election system sug- sion of the court before a higher instance. gested by the President and the petition for Moreover, Chief Prosecutor Sotir Tsatsarov this. Parliament rejected the referendum on admitted that the Prosecutor’s Office had the three questions – about the compulsory definitely made a mistake but transferred vote, about part of MPs being elected on the blame onto the police. the first-past-the-post principle and about In a TV interview Tsvetan Vassilev quali- the introduction of an electronic absentee fied the accusations that he was preparing vote. GERB insisted that the three questions an attempt on the life of Peevski as un- should be voted on together and not sepa- substantiated but admitted that the two rately, and this predetermined the final out- of them had had a conflict for a couple of come. The referendum was rejected with months. For his part, Vassilev accused Peevs- the votes of BSP and MRF and “Ataka” did ki that all the public procurement contracts not take part in the voting. of the last year went through his channels. Despite the forthcoming resignation of The owner of CCB said further that Bulgar- the government, some personal changes tabak, where he is a minority shareholder, is were made in it at the end of June. MRF’s being drained on a particularly large scale, Iskra Mihailova, hitherto Minister of Envi- whereby the money goes into somebody’s ronment and Water, who became an MEP personal accounts. He asked the Prosecu- was replaced by Svetoslav Angelov from 6 B AROMETE R 2/2014

the youth formation of the same party. PM player in the right-wing political space, but Oresharski dismissed Kiril Zhelev, Deputy as a leading political party in this country Minister of Finance. The position was taken too. The expectations of many analysts that by Georgi Turnovaliiski, Deputy Executive the party would disintegrate in opposition Director of the National Revenue Agency proved wrong. until then. GERB received 30.4% of the votes, which secured six seats for the party in the 2. State and Development EP. This is the best result of the party in Eu- of the Party System ropean elections – even higher than in the 2009 elections. Nearly 630,000 people vot- 2.1. Trends in the Political Parties ed for GERB in the previous elections, and Represented in Parliament now – a little more than 680,000. GERB had had five MEPs so far, and now they will have 2.1.1. GERB six – the leader of the list Tomislav Donchev, The most important political event in an in- the previous MEPs Andrei Kovachev, Mari- party sense for GERB was the elections for ja Gabriel and Vladimir Uruchev. Fifth and European Parliament. They were particu- sixth are Eva Paunova and Emil Radev MP larly important for the party because of the respectively. expectations that success in them would The exit-poll data showed that GERB open up GERB’s path back to power. Un- won in the large cities of the country. Main- like in other elections, this time GERB did ly young voters voted for them, as well as not carry out their usual pro-active me- economically active people, people with dia campaign. The efforts were focused higher education and representatives of the on consolidation and mobilizing the local middle class. party structures. Party leader Borisov and Immediately after the results were another leading politicians of the party went nounced Boyko Borisov said that the gov- around many towns in the country and ernment should resign immediately. He held face to face meetings with the peo- stressed that the country is facing an eco- ple. Tsvetan Tsvetanov was elected Chief nomic catastrophe and parliamentary elec- of the Election Staff of the party, despite tions should be held as soon as possible. If the court cases the Prosecutor’s Office had not, the country would be facing bankrupt- filed against him. cy and it would come to a “Greek scenario” Only days prior to the elections, yet an- to put it in his words. other MP - Daniel Georgiev - left GERB’s Borisov said that the country needs a parliamentary group and joined Bulgaria strong center-right government. To a jour- Uncensored of Nikolai Barekov. MPs leaving nalist’s question as to whether or not he GERB over the past months, however, did would make a coalition with the Reformist not result in serious disturbances in the par- Block after preterm parliamentary elections ty and its unity. The leadership defined this were held, he answered that one can speak as a “healthy process of cleansing” which about coalitions only after the results are will make the party stronger afterwards. seen. Borisov congratulated the Reformist The outcome of the EP elections showed Block on their result and said that the two that GERB is becoming not only a major parties belong to the same political family B AROMETE R 2/2014 7

and it is only natural for them to partner stands firmly behind him and also accused each other, and even make a coalition if the court of being partisan. Tsvetanov was that is the will of the voters. acquitted in the first instance on the case of During the past month one can detect misappropriation of 50,000 BGN from the some warming in the relations between Budget of the Ministry of Interior. GERB and MRF. Borisov denied any kind of agreements between the two parties about 2.1.2. BSP a future coalition or joint action in this par- BSP suffered a severe defeat in the Europe- liament. All media publications on this topic an Parliament Elections. The party received were described by Borisov as speculation. 18.9% of the votes (424,000 votes) – equal GERB declared that they firmly support to four seats, which is the same as their Jean Claude Juncker’s nomination for Pres- coalition partners from MRF. The Socialists ident of the European Commission. In a lost nearly half a million voters in compari- meeting of the EPP Group in Brussels Boyko son with the parliamentary elections a year Borisov said that the EPP won the elections earlier. The difference of more than 11% and it would be right that the future Pres- between GERB and BSP was unexpected – ident of the Commission should be from polls indicated a 5% advantage for GERB a that party. As regards the Bulgarian nom- couple of days prior to the elections. This ination for Commissioner, Borisov said that is why the shock of the Socialists from the the current government has no moral right loss was so great and naturally caused dis- to make the nomination because the par- turbances – not only within the party but in ties that support it have lost the elections. the relations between BSP and their part- He said that at the moment Bulgaria has an ners in the government - MRF. excellent Commissioner - Kristalina Geor- The reasons for the loss of BSP are com- gieva - and GERB will do everything possi- plex. The negatives of the government and ble for her to be nominated by Bulgaria this the participation in the unpopular govern- time too. ment of Oresharski discouraged some of The cases against Tsvetan Tsvetanov the left voters. The complex relations with went on in the court phase. He was sen- MRF also had a negative effect on the mo- tenced in the first instance by Sofia City bilization of the BSP electorate in the elec- Court to four years’ effective imprisonment tions. Many of the supporters of the party on the count that, despite the court’s in- disapprove of it taking part in a government structions, he had refused six times to use together with MRF. Indicative of that are special means of investigation against Orlin the growing anti-MRF attitudes among BSP Todorov, former chief of The General Di- politicians, which were also seen during the rectorate for Combatting Organized Crime election campaign. in Veliko Tarnovo. Tsvetanov stated that The participation of ABV of former Presi- political pressure was exercised against the dent Georgi Parvanov in the elections ad- judge on his case and that he will appeal ditionally discouraged the left voters and against the sentence. To the calls of a num- many of them preferred not to vote. ABV ber of politicians from BSP for Tsvetanov to received a total of 4.02% of the votes, leave parliament and the leadership bodies which was not sufficient for a seat in the of GERB, Boyko Borisov responded that he European Parliament. The leader Georgi 8 B AROMETE R 2/2014

Parvanov noted after the elections that he cording to him PES received a good result had expected a better outcome, but point- and came very close to the victors from EPP ed out that with such a result ABV would in terms of number of seats. According to overcome the election threshold of 4% in Stanishev, this was a sign that the European national parliamentary elections. citizens want a more social and more tight- The elected MEPs from BSP are: Georgi knit Europe, and not austerity policies. Pirinski, former MEP Iliyana Yotova, Mom- The data from the polling agencies chil Nekov and Sergei Stanishev. The young demonstrated a drop in the socio-demo- Momchil Nekov came as a surprise as he graphic profile of the BSP electorate. For was 15th on the list but got nearly 8% pref- the first time BSP came fourth among the erential votes, which meant that he came youngest age group (between 18 and 30 before the leader of the list Sergei Stan- years) and this makes the Socialist Party the ishev. The reason for this unexpected result one with the most aging electorate among was that Nekov’s place on the list was iden- the main parties in this country. These tical with the number of the party on the elections demonstrated yet another prec- integral ballot and many of the BSP voters edent in the BSP result – so far in all elec- crossed number 15 in both places – for a tions the party had come first among the party and for a candidate. village population in this country. This time In the news conference after the elec- the most village votes in percentage terms tions Sergei Stanishev admitted the severe were cast for MRF, BSP came second. In 11 electoral defeat. He declared that the re- of 31 constituencies BSP is the third politi- sults were disappointing for BSP and that cal power – Blagoevgrad, Burgas, Dobrich, this was a signal from the voters that must Kurdzhali, Pazardzhik, Razgrad, Silistra, be deciphered and analyzed. Stanishev Smolyan, Sofia-24 constituency, Turgov- justified the defeat with the appearance ishte and Haskovo. In two of them – Do- of ABV which, to put it in his words, had brich and Turgovishte, it had never before taken some of the left votes and another gone down to third place. rather large number of the voters who tra- Sofia Metropolitan Organization of BSP ditionally vote for the party were discour- demanded a session of the regular 48th Party aged and did not go to the ballot boxes at congress as soon as possible to discuss the all. On the other hand, Stanishev accused party’s pre-election platform and the coali- GERB of using their administrative resourc- tion policy. BSP Sofia also demands the res- es in the local authorities to exercise pres- ignation of Sergei Stanishev. According to sure on the voters. Stanishev stated that the Socialists from Sofia “in order to have a these were European Parliament elections successful performance of the party in the and one should not make a general deduc- elections, a complete change of the leader- tion for the support for the government. ship and the mechanism of decision making The BSP leader said that he was not in- is needed”, and also “the next party chair- tending to resign at that moment and that man should not be elected by the congress this was not the most important topic for delegates but through in-party elections.” the party. The former chairman of the party organiza- Stanishev presented an assessment of tion in Sofia Rumen Ovcharov was particu- the performance of PES in the elections. Ac- larly critical towards the party leader and B AROMETE R 2/2014 9

said that with Sergei Stanishev as the leader came as a surprise to many, and provoked the party has no future. different reactions. The loss of the elections for BSP and the Stanishev announced that his decision tensions in the party resulted in a number was prompted by the new situation in Eu- of resignations of some key figures. Kor- rope and this country after the EP elections. nelia Ninova resigned as a member of the He stated that he would remain leader of Executive Bureau of the party and as Dep- the party, despite rumors that he was get- uty Chairman of the parliamentary group. ting ready to resign. Stanishev expressed Georgi Kadiev, who has been an open critic his opinion that BSP was in need of a of the party leadership, resigned as an MP. change but that this change should happen He stated that the party was in need of a smoothly and without any shocks. radical change – not only in the leadership After Stanishev left the National As- bodies but in terms of policy too. According sembly, Atanas Merdzhanov was elected to Kadiev, if BSP did not replace Sergei Stan- chairman of the parliamentary group of Co- ishev as party leader, the party would lose alition for Bulgaria. He was nominated by the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Sergei Stanishev. New Deputy Chairpersons a catastrophic way. Unlike Kadiev, Korne- were elected too – Peter Kanev, Filip Popov, lia Ninova supported Sergei Stanishev with Zahari Georgiev and Mariyana Georgieva. the motive that one should not change the After the EP elections ABV decided leader before the elections, because that to transform the movement into a party. would result in a split of the party. Yanaki Rumen Petkov stated that the only two Stoilov, another key figure in the party re- parties with which ABV would not enter signed as Deputy Chairman of the parlia- into any political agreements are MRF and mentary group after the BSP MPs supported “Ataka”. According to Boyko Radoev, Bul- the MRF nomination of Svetoslav Angelov garia needs a new left party and the proof for Minister of the Environment and Waters thereof are the results of the last EP elec- to replace Iskra Mihailova, who became an tions. ABV will fight for a change of the MEP. Yanaki Stoilov insisted that this issue political model, expressed in the introduc- should not be voted on and should be left tion of a mixed election system and a ma- for a future moment in time. jority vote for half of the MPs. Parvanov’s Stanishev always used to say that he formation will insist on holding referenda had no intention of becoming an MEP. For on important issues for Bulgaria, on a re- a long time information was circulated in form of the judicial system through chang- the public that he would be the nomination ing the way the Supreme Judicial Council of the government for a European Commis- is elected, as well as shortening the term of sioner. Stanishev did not answer questions office of the Chief Prosecutor. from journalists as to whether he would be the next European Commissioner from Bul- 2.1.3. MRF garia during the past month in an unam- The outcome of the EP elections determined biguous manner and evaded the topic. This MRF as the third political power with a re- is why his decision to give up his seat at the sult of 17.27%, which secured four seats National Assembly and become an MEP, in the European Parliament for the party. which he announced at the end of June, Filiz Hiusmenova, Delyan Peevski, Nedzhmi 10 B AROMETE R 2/2014

Ali and Ilhan Kyuchuk were elected MEPs. there is a lot of energy and prerequisites for The second in the list - Delyan Peevski - an- upward development in the future. nounced in the news conference after the As was mentioned, MRF predeter- elections that he was giving up his seat in mined the fate of the government after the EP. It was taken by the hitherto Minister the news conference of the party when of Environment and Waters Iskra Mihailo- Lyutvi Mestan announced his preference va. Peevski thanked the MRF structures for for elections by the end of the year. This their support and expressed his willingness aggravated the relations the party had to go on working with them, rather than with its coalition partners from BSP to go to Brussels. This was the first public ap- the extreme. Things went as far as Coali- pearance of the scandalous MP after his un- tion for Bulgaria MPs voting in one of the successful attempt to become head of the parliamentary committees for the Decla- State Agency for National Security (SANS) in ration condemning the “Revival Process” the summer of last year. to be revoked, together with “Ataka”. As early as in the news conference the Lyutvi Mestan stated that he was sad- night after the election Mestan stated that dened with that position of BSP MPs and the political realities had shown that there is demanded that the party officially distin- no option for the government to survive till guished itself from this. The declaration the end of the term of office. However, he was not revoked but the behavior of BSP refused to provide an unequivocal answer MPs indicated that BSP-MRF relations are to the question until when the cabinet will extremely acute. go on working. Mestan explained that the On the account of the latter, however, party is the third political power and refrain- during the past quarter a warming of MRF ing from any decision that is a prerogative GERB relations was detected. This demon- of the bearer of the mandate on their part strated that MRF are preparing the soil for should not be regarded as avoiding respon- a new government formula in view of the sibility but, on the contrary, as a manifes- development of the political situation after tation of strong political responsibility. The the EP elections. Sources from MRF denied MRF leader stated that his party was open that they were talking to GERB about form- for talks in order to stabilize the political ing a new government within this parlia- situation in this country. ment. Lyutvi Mestan announced that the Mestan expressed his satisfaction with two parties have normal tolerant relations the result of MRF. According to him MRF is and everything else was speculation. Yor- the only political force which has increased dan Tsonev from MRF also stated that there its result by 36-37 thousand votes com- is no understanding with GERB for the time pared to last year. being “although all doors are open, obvi- According to Mestan the elections es- ously”. He was categorical that within the tablished MRF as the third political party in framework of this parliament the move- Bulgaria, and in this way the forecasts that ment would not support any PM other than it might be displaced from this position had Oresharski. proved wrong. Further, he pointed out that The scandal between Peevski and Ts- MRF is the party with the youngest voters vetan Vassilev and the mutual accusations in this country, which is an indicator that between the two of some outstanding busi- B AROMETE R 2/2014 11

ness relations and fixed public procurement even overtook the party of Siderov with only confirmed the opinion that is circulat- 3.05% of the votes of the electorate. ing in the public that there are some strong The low results of the two nationalistic corporate dependencies behind the party. parties resulted in a situation where Bulgaria At this stage, the MRF leadership did not will have no Eurosceptic MEP. This happens react in any way to the conflict between at a time when the extreme right and popu- Peevski and Tsvetan Vassilev, possibly trying list formations in Europe are marking a real not to add negatives to its image. breakthrough. Against this background, Bulgarian nationalists had the worst results 2.1.4. “Ataka” for the past nine years. As expected, “Ataka” did not get any seats Siderov saw his decision to lead the in the EP and got its worst election result so party list for the EP elections as a mistake. far. Only 66,000 voters voted for the party, According to him many of the voters of or 2.9% of the valid votes. One of the main “Ataka” thought that he had decided to reasons for this result was the support of abandon the party and go to the EP and “Ataka” for BSP and MRF in the National that deterred them from voting. Assembly for a year. “Ataka” was estab- On the party TV channel “Alfa Ataka” lished as a formation at the core of which Siderov announced that he would have a was the extreme anti-MRF rhetoric. Backing poll among his supporters whether the par- Oresharski’s government, albeit informally, ty should continue to exist and whether he together with MRF delegitimized the foun- should stay their leader. He even provided dations of “Ataka” and its nature. This is his personal telephone number and e-mail why the sharp decrease in voters for the address. party is very logical and easy to explain. “Ataka” MP Magdalena Tasheva said “Ataka” tried to bet on the pro-Russian that Siderov had received more than 600 attitudes in Bulgarian society in this election messages on his e-mail address and all of campaign, using the events in the Ukraine. them were “very encouraging”. According Siderov demanded that the Bulgarian gov- to Tasheva the main conclusion from this ernment recognize the Crimea referendum poll was that the supporters of the party did as legal. Moreover, the party launched its not vote in the EP elections because they campaign in Moscow of all places, where did not regard them as important, but the Siderov was on a visit. This populism did not outcome of a national parliamentary elec- bring about the expected results, however. tion would be different. The position of “Ataka” on the Ukraine is- Volen Siderov strongly criticized the sue and the attitudes towards Russia did decision of Plamen Oresharski to stop the not bring the effect Siderov was hoping for. work on the South Stream. He accused the The “Ataka” voters found it difficult to un- PM of taking the decision immediately after derstand the paradox – a nationalistic party his meeting with John McCain and this was proclaiming Russian nationalism. proof that he had succumbed to pressure. This led to disbursement of the nation- In typical Siderov style he said that Bulgaria alist vote to other formations. For instance, behaves like an American colony and not the direct competitor of “Ataka” – the Na- like a sovereign state which defends its tional front for Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) national interests. He threatened that he 12 B AROMETE R 2/2014

would overthrow the government if the de- that the strength of the Reformist Block is cision was not revised. in its unity. Meglena Kouneva congratulated Sve- 2.2. Non-parliamentary parties toslav Malinov on his election as MEP and said that they had very good personal and 2.2.1. Reformist Block professional relations. She pointed out that The Reformist Block (RB) won a total of she made her best efforts in the progress 6.45% of the votes, which gave them one of the campaign and that her party had a seat in the EP. The second on the list of major contribution to the success of the Re- RB Svetoslav Malinov from DSB received formist Block. At the same time, however, enough preferences to replace the leader Kouneva demonstrated her dissatisfaction of the list – Meglena Kouneva. This result with the situation and said that she would came about after the DSB voters voted en expect some explanation from her coalition masse with a preference for Malinov. Even partner. She also pointed out that the unity during the campaign it became clear that of the Reformist Block was in her hands. the hard core supporters of DSB did not ap- Kouneva’s reaction demonstrated that, prove of Meglena Kouneva as leader of the after Malinov’s election as MEP, the tension list, because of her connection to a commu- in the Reformist Block remains high. This nist family from the establishment. might lead to controversies and conflicts Exit poll data of the polling agencies within the coalition in view of signing an showed that the DSB electorate was mobi- agreement for running together in the pre- lized to the maximum extent for this elec- term parliamentary elections. tion and this explains why Malinov came Like Kouneva, Daniel Vulchev from the first. At the same time 32% of the people Bulgaria of the Citizens Movement said that who voted for the party of Meglena Kou- the Reformist Block is a “difficult but suc- neva in the last parliamentary elections cessful” coalition. According to him the fact supported Bulgaria Uncensored of Nikolai that it unites people with “different political Barekov in the EP election. This data con- biographies is rather positive”. firmed the trend from the past months that One of the current topics for the Reform- many of the structures of Bulgaria of the ist Block in the context of the forthcoming Citizens Movement had moved to the new preterm elections is the relation with GERB. party of the former journalist. DSB still show contradictory behavior on Sources from the Reformist Block stat- this question. After the EP elections Radan ed that they were happy with the result, Kanev stated that GERB is a natural part- but that they were expecting greater sup- ner of the Reformist Block as a member port. DSB leader Radan Kanev said that party of EPP. At the same time, however, from now on the Reformist block will de- in a number of statements that followed, velop upwards because this is the only real Kanev put GERB on the same plane as BSP alternative to the political status quo. Ac- and MRF as part of the “political back stage cording to Kanev the elections have shown dealings”. This prompted Daniel Vulchev to that the coalition format of the block is react sharply and say that he did not like the successful and that it has to be developed fact that every second word in news con- and built on. The DSB leader stated further ferences of the Reformist Block was “ma- B AROMETE R 2/2014 13

fia and back stage dealings”. According ally successful political project that will con- to Vulchev, it is not appropriate to speak tinue to develop in the future too. in general terms but to give specific names, The results of Bulgaria Uncensored are otherwise it is just empty words. due to serious financial and media resourc- The attitude to GERB continues to divide es, which allowed it to have a strong cam- the parties in the Reformist Block. This is why paign. After the elections Barekov received the Bulgaria of the Citizens Movement took many accusations in the public space of the a decision for an internal party referendum unclear financing of the campaign and that among its members in August, whether to banker Tsvetan Vassilev was behind his proj- support a possible future government of ect. “Ataka” even said that they will alert the GERB. According to Daniel Vulchev, this de- Prosecutor’s office about the way he financed cision is due to the fact that there are many his campaign. Barekov rejected the accusa- people in the party who are against such tions and said that he received the votes of a step. Vulchev added that Bulgaria of the so many Bulgarians because they see him as Citizens Movement came into being as an the only alternative to the status quo. Ac- alternative of GERB. cording to him, all politicians are afraid at the The results of the elections resulted in moment of him coming to power because dissatisfaction among the Bulgaria of the he will keep his promise to investigate the citizens Movement. In a letter to the Na- entire political elite that has been in power tional Council of the party Ivo Ivanov, a over the past years. According to him this is member of the Auditing Board of the party, the reason for the attacks against him. In an demanded Meglena Kouneva’s resignation. interview for a national media Tsvetan Vas- The motive was the weak performance in silev confirmed for the first time that he had the elections and the fact that the party financed the TV project of Barekov in TV7 would not have a representative in the EP, and given him the initial start in this way. and the responsibility for this was entirely At the end of June it became clear that that of the leader. The demand for resigna- Nikolai Barekov and Angel Dzhambazki will tion only had the effect that Ivo Ivanov was be members of the European Conservatives expelled from the party. and Reformists Group in the EP. Barekov defined this as serious recognition of his 2.2.2. “Bulgaria Uncensored” party. Still, he said that his party will be po- Bulgaria Uncensored managed to win sitioned in the political center and will strive 10.66% of the votes in the EP elections, to replace MRF as a balancing factor in the which secured two seats for the party. So, Bulgarian parliament. Nikolai Barekov and Angel Dzhambazki After the elections Barekov made sever- from VMRO will go to Brussels. al contradictory statements. Initially he de- Barekov declared that he will be an MEP fined BSP as “the most democratic party”, temporarily, and when preterm elections with which BU would enter into a coalition, are held in this country he will come back provided that Sergei Stanishev is not the in order to lead the party’s campaign. He party leader. In another statement Barekov defined the cooperation of his party with qualified BSP as part of the political back VMRO, the Agrarian Popular Union and stage dealings in the country and as a party George’s Day Movement as an exception- fully subservient to MRF. 14 B AROMETE R 2/2014

At the beginning of June, Svetlin hold preterm parliamentary elections seems Tanchev, who left GERB’s parliamentary to be the only way to resolve the political and group, became one of the Deputy Chair- parliamentary crisis this country has been in men of Bulgaria Uncensored. In addition, for almost a year. In the next quarter the re- he will be nominated for regional Chairman sponsibility for the governance will be in the of the party in Sofia. field of the President, who will have to form Bulgaria Uncensored announced that a caretaker government for the second time they will establish a shadow cabinet with in two years. The tasks facing him will be not some of the key figures of the party – Niko- at all easy in view of the problems in the en- lai Barekov, former TV anchor Rosen Petrov, ergy sector, healthcare, budget performance former “Ataka” MP Kalina Krumova, Svet- and the overall state of the public sector. The lin Tanchev, Rada Kodzhabasheva and jour- situation around the Cooperative Commer- nalist Miroslava Kortenska. cial Bank added to the tension in the society, which might have a negative effect on the 3. Public Opinion credit rating of Bulgaria. 2. Calling preterm elections has been A Gallup poll of electoral attitudes half a one of the goals of GERB over the past year. month after the EP elections shows a 15% The victory in the European Parliament elec- decline in confidence in the cabinet. 47% of tions gives the party a chance to return to respondents demand the resignation of the power. The most important issue GERB has Oresharski Cabinet and 32% support it. to resolve is finding partners for a future According to the poll of the agency in government. Last year, after the parliamen- the case of preterm elections there will be at tary elections, the party fell into total iso- least six parties in the new National Assem- lation, due to the confrontational style of bly. GERB will win 22-24% support, which government which it had imposed for four will put it in first place. Second comes BSP years previously. This is why it is important with 15-17%. In third place is MRF, which for the party to demonstrate that it is ca- is expected to win between 14 and 16% of pable of dialogue and consensus. the votes. Bulgaria Uncensored (6-8%) and 3. BSP suffered an extremely severe de- the Reformist Block (5%-7%) are expected feat, which results in the party facing seri- to be the newcomers to parliament. ABV ous challenges in the future. The decision of of Georgi Parvanov also stands a chance of Stanishev to become an MEP will probably overcoming the election threshold, as sup- increase the centrifugal processes in the party port for the movement is around 4%. in view of electing a new party leader. Despite Stanishev’s claim that he would continue to 4. Main Conclusions and Forecasts be the party chairman, this will hardly be possible in view of his engagements in Brussels 1. The results from the elections for the Eu- and Strasbourg. The motivation for voting ropean Parliament predetermined the fate of of the traditional supporters of the party will the government. The two parties in power - be the main challenge for BSP in the forth- BSP and MRF - did not get the electoral sup- coming elections. The reasons for this are the port that can be used as grounds for continu- negatives which BSP has had to suffer from ing the work of the cabinet. The decision to the government in the past year. The unclear B AROMETE R 2/2014 15

arrangements with MRF gave BSP members very difficult for it to restore its positions. The and supporters the feeling that the party has reason is mostly the informal support Siderov become a hostage of the interests of its co- gave to the government. Standing on the alition partner. Georgi Parvanov’s decision same side with the main political opponent, to transform ABV into a party and run in MRF discouraged even the hard core of sup- the forthcoming general election on its own porters. The attempts of Siderov to use the makes BSP’s performance in this election even political conjuncture around the events in more problematic. Despite the fact that ABV the Ukraine and to attract pro-Russian voters did not make it to the European Parliament, in Bulgaria proved illusionary. On the con- the result it got provides a good foundation trary, the party lost because of its position in for it to overcome the election threshold in support of the annexation of Crimea and of the elections for a national parliament. justifying Russian aggression. 4. MRF did exceptionally well in the EP elec- 6. The EP elections were a great challenge tions, which proved yet again that it is capable for the Reformist Block. Despite the difficul- of mobilizing its electorate to the maximum ties they had during the campaign, they man- extent. The party was increasingly criticized aged to overcome the election threshold. This for the unclear corporate interests that went makes their prospects for entering the new with the government during the past year. Yet National Assembly much better. Despite that, another scandal related to MRF MP Delyan the tension between Bulgaria of the Citizens Peevski and the situation with the Corporate and DSB remains high, particularly after Sve- Commercial bank reveal more and more the toslav Malinov managed to overtake Meglena non-public political dependencies around the Kouneva in the preferential vote. The main party. This all leads to growing anti-MRF atti- problem before the Reformist Block contin- tudes of the public and this might add fuel to ues to be the non-homogenous nature of the the election campaign in the country. MRF will parties in the coalition and the leaders’ con- try to keep its balancing role between the left tradiction therein. The main challenge in the and right forces in this country. This is why the forthcoming election campaign will be to de- warming of the relations with GERB is no sur- termine the eligible positions in the lists. This prise. The party received a very strong govern- might create a conflict which impacts the re- ment resource over the past year, which will sult of the party negatively. be very difficult to keep in a new government 7. Bulgaria Uncensored of Nikolai Barekov configuration. If MRF does not start a process received an unexpectedly high result in the of distancing itself from Delyan Peevski and the EP elections. This is due mainly to the strong corporate interests that are related to him, the media campaign of the party and the finan- possibility of the party being recognized as a cial means that were invested in it. The popu- partner in a future government becomes less list style of behavior of Barekov also played a and less likely. decisive role. At this stage it is not clear yet 5. “Ataka” was the biggest loser in the whether Barekov’s project will have the same European election. The party collapsed dras- success in the forthcoming preterm elections tically in terms of electorate and it will be for a national parliament. 16 B AROMETE R 2/2014

About the editor: Professor, Ph.D. Georgi Karasimeonov is teaching at SU “St. Clement of Ochrid”, Di- rector of the Institute for Political and Legal Studies. From 1991 to 1998 he was Presi- dent of the Bulgarian Association for Polit- ical Science. Contact: [email protected] Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) B A R O M E T E R Bulgaria’s Political Parties Year 14, Issue 2, April - June 2014

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