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Chapter 13 • Fisheries and Aquaculture 693 Chapter 13 Fisheries and Aquaculture Lead Authors Hjálmar Vilhjálmsson, Alf Håkon Hoel Contributing Authors Sveinn Agnarsson, Ragnar Arnason, James E. Carscadden,Arne Eide, David Fluharty, Geir Hønneland, Carsten Hvingel, Jakob Jakobsson, George Lilly, Odd Nakken,Vladimir Radchenko, Susanne Ramstad,William Schrank, Niels Vestergaard,Thomas Wilderbuer Contents Summary . .692 13.4. Newfoundland and Labrador Seas, Northeastern Canada . .731 13.1. Introduction . .692 13.4.1. Ecosystem essentials . .732 13.1.1. Biological and model uncertainties/ certainties . .693 13.4.2. Fish stocks and fisheries . .733 13.1.2. Societal uncertainties . .694 13.4.3. Past climatic variations and their impact on commercial stocks .736 13.1.3.The global framework for managing living marine resources .694 13.4.4. Possible impacts of climate change on fish stocks . .739 13.2. Northeast Atlantic – Barents and Norwegian Seas . .695 13.4.5.The economic and social importance of fisheries . .741 13.2.1. Ecosystem essentials . .696 13.4.6. Past variations in the fishing industry and their economic 13.2.2. Fish stocks and fisheries . .696 and social impacts . .742 13.2.3. Past climatic variations and their impact on commercial 13.4.7. Economic and social impacts of climate change: possible stocks . .699 scenarios . .744 13.2.4. Possible impacts of climate change on fish stocks . .700 13.4.8.Ability to cope with change . .745 13.2.5.The economic and social importance of fisheries . .700 13.4.9. Concluding comments . .745 13.2.6. Economic and social impacts of climate change on fisheries 13.5. North Pacific – Bering Sea . .746 in the Northeast Atlantic . .706 13.5.1. Ecosystem essentials . .747 13.2.7.Ability to cope with change . .709 13.5.2. Fish stocks and fisheries . .747 13.2.8. Concluding comments . .709 13.5.3. Past climatic variations and their impact on commercial 13.3. Central North Atlantic – Iceland and Greenland . .709 stocks . .753 13.3.1. Ecosystem essentials . .710 13.5.4. Possible impacts of climate change on fish stocks . .757 13.3.2. Fish stocks and fisheries . .712 13.5.5.The economic and social importance of fisheries . .761 13.3.3. Past climatic variations and their impact on commercial 13.5.6.Variations in Bering Sea fisheries and socio-economic stocks . .716 impacts: possible scenarios . .766 13.3.4. Possible impacts of climate change on fish stocks . .719 13.5.7.Ability to cope with change . .768 13.3.5.The economic and social importance of fisheries . .721 13.5.8. Concluding comments . .768 13.3.6. Economic and social impacts of climate change: possible 13.6. Synthesis and key findings . .770 scenarios . .725 13.7. Research recommendations . .771 13.3.7.Ability to cope with change . .729 References . .772 13.3.8. Concluding comments . .730 692 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Summary returned to Iceland to spawn as adults, thus expanding the distribution range of Icelandic cod. In warm periods, This chapter addresses fisheries and aquaculture in four the Norwegian spring-spawning herring forages for food large marine ecosystems, three in the northern North westward across the Norwegian Sea to the north of Atlantic and one in the North Pacific.The ecosystems Iceland, but is excluded from the western half of the around Greenland and off northeast Canada (east of Norwegian Sea and northern Icelandic waters during Newfoundland and Labrador) are of a true arctic type. cold periods.This results in a loss of about a third of the Owing to a greater influence of warm Atlantic or Pacific summer feeding grounds for the largest single herring water, the other systems are of a cold-temperate type. stock in the world. Historical data are used to project the effects of a warm- ing climate on commercial and other marine stocks Global warming is also likely to induce an ecosystem native to these ecosystems. regime shift in some areas, resulting in a very different species composition. In such cases, relative population Modeling studies show that it is difficult to simulate and sizes, fish growth rates, and spatial distributions of fish project changes in climate resulting from the response to stocks are likely to change.This will result in the need forces that can and have been measured and even moni- for adjustments in the commercial fisheries. However, tored on a regular basis for considerable periods and on unless there is a major climatic change, such adjustments which the models are built. Furthermore, current cli- are likely to be relatively minor and, although they may mate models do not include scenarios for ocean temper- call for fresh negotiations of fishing rights and total atures, watermass mixing, upwelling, or other relevant allowable catches, such changes are unlikely to entail ocean variables such as primary and secondary produc- significant economic and social costs. tion, on either a global or regional basis. As fisheries typ- ically depend on such variables, any predictions concern- The total effect of a moderate warming of climate on ing fisheries in a changing climate can only be of a very fish stocks is likely to be of less importance than the tentative nature. effects of fisheries policies and their enforcement. The significant factor in determining the future of fish- Commercial fisheries in arctic regions are based on a eries is sound resource management practices, which in number of species belonging to physically different large part depend upon the properties and effectiveness ecosystems.The dynamics of many of these ecosystems of resource management regimes and the underlying are not well understood and therefore it is often research. Examples supporting this statement are the difficult to identify the relative importance of fishing collapse of the “northern cod” off Newfoundland and and the environment on changes in fish populations Labrador, the fall and rise of the Norwegian spring- and biology. Moreover, current fish populations differ spawning herring, and the stable condition of the Alaska in abundance and biology from those in the past due to pollock of the Bering Sea. However, all arctic countries anthropogenic effects (i.e., exploitation rates). As a are currently making efforts to implement management result it is unclear whether current populations will strategies based on precautionary approaches, with respond to climate change as they may have done in increasing emphasis on the inclusion of risk and uncer- the past.Thus the effects of climate change on marine tainty in all decision-making. fish stocks and the eventual socio-economic conse- quences of those effects for arctic fisheries cannot be The economic and social impacts of altered environ- accurately predicted. mental conditions depend on the ability of the social structures involved, including the fisheries management In general, it is likely that a moderate warming will system, to generate the necessary adaptations to the improve conditions for some of the most important changes.These impacts will be very different to those commercial fish stocks, e.g.,Atlantic cod, herring, experienced in earlier times, when the concept of fish- and walleye pollock.This is most likely to be due to eries management was almost unknown. Furthermore, enhanced levels of primary and secondary production in previous times general poverty, weak infrastructure, resulting from reduced sea-ice cover. Reduced sea ice and lack of alternative job opportunities meant that the would automatically improve recruitment to Atlantic ability of societies to adapt to change, whether at a cod, herring, and walleye pollock stocks, as well as to a national or local level, was far less than today.Thus, it is number of other smaller stocks. unlikely that the impact of the climate change projected for the 21st century (see Chapter 4) on arctic fisheries Such changes could also lead to extensive expansions of will have significant long-term economic or social habitat areas for species such as cod and herring.The impacts at a national level. Some arctic regions, espe- most spectacular examples are cod at Greenland and the cially those very dependent on fisheries may, however, Norwegian spring-spawning herring.Atlantic cod appear be greatly affected. to be unable to propagate off West Greenland except under warm conditions when a very large self-sustaining 13.1. Introduction cod stock has been observed. At the same time, there has sometimes been a large-scale drift of juvenile cod This chapter identifies the possible effects of climate from Iceland to Greenland. Many of these cod have change on selected fish stocks and their fisheries in the Chapter 13 • Fisheries and Aquaculture 693 North Pacific: Bering Sea Northeast Canada: Northeast Atlantic: Newfoundland/ Barents Sea, Labrador area Norwegian Sea Central North Atlantic: Iceland/Greenland area Fig. 13.1. Location of the four arctic/subarctic marine ecosystems addressed in this chapter. Arctic. Arctic fisheries of selected species are described 13.1.1. Biological and model uncertainties/ in the northeast Atlantic (i.e., the Barents and the certainties Norwegian Seas), the waters around Iceland and Greenland, the waters off northeastern Canada, and Precise forecasts of changes in fish stocks and fisheries the Bering Sea (Fig. 13.1).The species discussed are and their effects on society are not possible.The sources those few circumpolar species (capelin (Mallotus villo- of uncertainty can be grouped into three categories: sus), Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), (1) uncertainties in identifying the reasons for past northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis), and polar cod changes in fish biology, (2) uncertainties in the projec- (Boreogadus saida)) and those of commercial importance tions of potential changes in the ocean climate under in specific regions.The latter include Atlantic cod climate change scenarios, and (3) uncertainties relating (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), to the socio-economic effects of changes in fish stocks. Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio), There are many biological characteristics of fish that plus a number of others.
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