land Article Modeling Future Urban Sprawl and Landscape Change in the Laguna de Bay Area, Philippines Kotaro Iizuka 1,*, Brian A. Johnson 2, Akio Onishi 3, Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog 4, Isao Endo 2 and Milben Bragais 4 1 Center for Southeast Asian Studies (CSEAS), Kyoto University, 46, Yoshida Shimoadachicho, Sakyo-ku Kyoto-shi, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan 2 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0115, Japan;
[email protected] (B.A.J.);
[email protected] (I.E.) 3 Faculty of Environmental Studies, Tokyo City University, 3-3-1 Ushikubo-nishi, Tsuzuki-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 224-8551, Japan;
[email protected] 4 Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, College, Laguna 4031, Philippines;
[email protected] (D.B.M.-M.);
[email protected] (M.B.) * Correspondence:
[email protected] Academic Editors: Andrew Millington, Harini Nagendra and Monika Kopecka Received: 6 March 2017; Accepted: 11 April 2017; Published: 14 April 2017 Abstract: This study uses a spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover (LULC) modeling approach to model and map the future (2016–2030) LULC of the area surrounding the Laguna de Bay of Philippines under three different scenarios: ‘business-as-usual’, ‘compact development’, and ‘high sprawl’ scenarios. The Laguna de Bay is the largest lake in the Philippines and an important natural resource for the population in/around Metro Manila. The LULC around the lake is rapidly changing due to urban sprawl, so local and national government agencies situated in the area need an understanding of the future (likely) LULC changes and their associated hydrological impacts.