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Americas Retail Trends Report Q 1 2014 AMERICAS RETAIL TRENDS REPORT Americas Retail Trends Report This report reflects current observations and sentiments from more than 450 CBRE retail brokerage and retail capital market professionals in the Americas. NATIONAL TENANT/USER PERSPECTIVES SUMMARY § High-end, chef-driven restaurants are now seen as anchors for lifestyle Entering 2014, the retail developments based on high sales volumes and the halo effect. sector shows promise for another strong year. Although § Luxury focus on urban high streets in gateway cities will remain a top priority. many retailers experienced § International retailers are increasing plans for expansion into the U.S. at the disappointing holiday sales highest rate since pre-recession. volume in brick-and-mortar locations, internet sales § Fast-fashion brands such as Uniqlo, Zara and Forever 21 lead the niche reached an all-time high. market. 2014 should see an increase in market share for these brands in the So much so, expedient absence of competitive U.S. brands. delivery faltered, providing valuable lessons in terms of § The grocery category remains competitive with niche brands expanding, while distribution channels. Yes, the major traditional players continue to shore up strong performers and e-commerce is strong, but rationalize weaker markets, as seen by the recent announcement of Albertson’s traditional retail locations closings. will never be a thing of the past. Prime space is still at a premium, and storefronts NATIONAL LANDLORD/OWNER PERSPECTIVES will always be part of our § Development, albeit very active, is far more prevalent in the Urban Markets. landscape. Much of the ground-up development is mixed-use, taking advantage of municipalities’ desire to densify. The primary themes we see during Q1 2014 are: § 2013 marked our first year of positive rent growth and net absorption coming • New development is off the recession. emerging with outlet malls and infill urban § Retail building ownership on America’s high streets has transformed as many redevelopment. large pension fund advisors and foreign owners have broken into properties • Interest and demand in that were, for the most part, privately owned. gateway cities and urban environments continues § The outlet format is extremely active today, with approximately 200 outlet to be strong for both centers in the U.S. and another 50 planned or in some stage of development. owners and retailers. Outlet center owners have an appetite for in-fill locations within Metropolitan • Restaurant activity is areas, i.e. Fashion Outlets of Chicago in Rosemont, IL. Canada has a surge of a leading driver of activity taking place in this format, and early conversations are happening in occupancy across all Mexico. categories of the sector. § Secondary and tertiary markets will see increased capital investment in retail, following retailer growth due to the shrinking supply of prime locations in gateway cities. page 1 Q1 2014 AMERICAS RETAIL TRENDS REPORT CAPITAL MARKETS PERSPECTIVES § The retail sector reached $54 billion in transaction activity in 2013, slightly ahead of 2012 results. § Shopping center and regional mall REITs are trading at a discount to net asset value. § Interest rates moved up in Q3, as did spreads for non-core assets, but the relatively slow growth and Fed tapering did not deter large transactions, including 12 in Q3 that exceeded $100 million. § At this time, banks have materialized as highly active lenders, versus CMBS and insurance companies. § Steady job growth and a recovering economy are expected to eventually drive new investment by households and corporations, increasing the demand for debt and driving up interest rates. § Further increases in the 10-year Treasury should not come as a surprise given the ongoing improvement in the U.S. economy, but to date, this has not materialized. § Investor risk tolerance is visible in the spreads between cap rates and the interest rates of relatively safe bond instruments. There is no evidence to suggest any narrowing underway with investors remaining in a risk-intolerant stance. § Despite the positive trends in recent jobs reports, the Fed is expecting only a modest recovery in GDP and jobs through the end of 2014. § Cap rates over the past 12 months have dropped, but are now stable for strip retail, in the past two quarters. § The neighborhood and community center segments posted an overall decline of 20 basis points in availability rates from last year. In 2014, continued absorption will occur, and in 2015 or 2016, vacancy rates should be at 10% or below. § Except for infill and outlet centers, new supply is developing at a fraction of existing inventory in recent quarters, compared to 2.5% per year growth during the boom period of 2006 and 2007, and steady demand is helping stabilize the B and C properties. § High streets weathered the economic downturn better than commodity suburban markets, while the challenge of ownership continues to be very limited transaction volume. Historically low cap rates are now reaching 3.0% for flagship space for investors, and sometimes lower for user purchases. REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES Northeastern & Mid-Atlantic United States § The New York economy is strong as rents in Manhattan continue to thrive. $3,000 psf is no longer a pipe dream (i.e. Prada deal). § The overall theme of Manhattan has shifted to include food, fitness, pharmacy and now, fashion. Specifically, men’s fashion. § In the fitness category, boutique and mainstream operators continue to expand. These include Equinox, Blink and LA Sports for full size, and Soul Cycle and Flywheel in the boutique category. Boom is a recent new option for the traditional gym enthusiast. § In the grocery sector, along with previously noted activity, international operators are entering the mix. § Boston’s development market is hotter than ever with several large-scale mixed-use projects coming out of the ground with 2016+ anticipated deliveries in neighborhoods like Downtown Crossing, North Station and Brighton and the Seaport. RETAIL SERVICES page 2 Q1 2014 AMERICAS RETAIL TRENDS REPORT § Local Boston restaurateurs and chefs are capitalizing on their successes to open multiple locations, oftentimes with developer capital provided to assist with build-out. § In Washington, D.C., Phase I of City Center, a high-end mixed-use development taking up six blocks downtown, has delivered with leases signed with Daniel Bouloud, Richard Sandoval, Tumi and Burberry, among others. Lease negotiations continue with many high-end national and international retailers. The project is expected to create a new concentration of luxury fashion/retail in Downtown D.C. § The highest concentration of development in D.C. continues east of the White House, particularly in Mount Vernon Triangle, NoMa, Shaw and the Southwest Waterfront. § Grocery is an active sector in D.C. with 12 new grocers in the pipeline, including two Whole Foods locations. Meanwhile, grocery-anchored center vacancy rates trended down 20 basis points in 2013 to 4.7% at year-end 2013; asking rents are up 2.2%. § With the Mayor of D.C. overturning the controversial Minimum Wage Act, Walmart has opened two new stores in the District. § D.C. is ranked the top city for Millennials with an 18% increase in young professionals (age 18-44) between 2007-2012 (During the same time, overall population growth was at 10%) § The fast-casual market continues to be very active in D.C., particularly in emerging neighborhoods, but there is concern that the market has become over-saturated. § The high-rent section of downtown Philadelphia (Rittenhouse Square) is still hot. Rents are pushing north of $120 psf; very strong for the market. New retailers to the area include Nordstrom Rack and Uniqlo. Other concepts continue to pursue entry. § Food, fitness and phones remain hot categories in Philadelphia. Active fitness retailers includeetro R Fitness and LA Fitness. And despite Darden’s slowdown in development, activity remains strong in the casual dining sector, as various new concepts attempt to penetrate the market. § In suburban Philadelphia, junior anchor activity is strong. Most notably, Dick’s Sporting Goods as they search for deals for their Field and Stream concept. And while Staples continues to downsize, we are seeing movement from discount apparel retailers such as TJX and Ross. § Giant Supermarkets continues to consolidate its hold on the Philadelphia region with recent deals emerging through acquisition. Wegmans and Whole Foods are active, but deals are strategically driven. Lower tier grocers such as Aldi and Bottom Dollar appear to be at the end of a recent expansion run in the area. § With very little activity from Target, Walmart and Kohl’s, traditional drivers of new suburban development projects, a continued slowdown in traditional new development is anticipated. Southeastern United States § In Virginia, Cabela’s and Wegmans are under construction at Short Pump Station. As well, Kroger and Walmart remain active in the market. § In North Carolina, IKEA is exploring Raleigh while Kroger is in the process of buying Harris Teeter. Publix is expanding, along with organic grocers, and Kite Realty is in development on over 1 million sq. ft. in West Wake County. § Field & Stream is scheduled to open in Raleigh. As well, wholesale clubs remain active. Gander Mountain has opened stores throughout NC and Cabela’s announced their first store in Garner, NC. RETAIL SERVICES page 3 Q1 2014 AMERICAS RETAIL TRENDS REPORT § Cabela’s will be opening a 100,000 sq. ft. store this quarter in South Carolina; their first location in the Southeast. § In Atlanta, Ballard Designs is looking to expand. In total, 40-50 stores throughout the southeast. FRONTGATE is also looking for 40-50 locations. § Costa Vida (based in Utah), a fresh Mexican competitor to Chipotle, is looking at 20-30 stores in Georgia. § Atlanta is witnessing several new developments/redevelopments: § Buckhead is welcoming 300,000 sq. ft. of street retail as part of a mixed-use development covering six city blocks.
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