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Toward the Great Ocean, Or the New Globalization of Russia

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Toward the Great Ocean, Or the New Globalization of Russia Moscow, JuLY, 2012 valdaiclub.com TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN, OR THE NEW GLOBALIZATION OF RUSSIA Valdai Discussion Club Analytical Report Toward the Great Ocean, or the New Globalization of Russia Valdai Discussion Club analytical report Moscow, July, 2012 valdaiclub.com Head of the research group and executive editor: Sergei Karaganov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy and Chairman of the Valdai International Discussion Club Authors: Oleg Barabanov, Professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Russian Foreign Ministry Timofei Bordachev, Director of Research Programs at the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy Contents 5 Introduction: The World Around Russia 10 Chapter 1. Asia as a challenge and an opportunity 10 1.1. A successful civilization 14 1.2. Resources and potential for economic growth 21 1.3. Global policy in Asia 25 1.4. Russia and its relations with Asia 34 1.5. Russia’s Asian regions: Challenges for and the potential of Siberia and the Far East 46 Chapter 2. From a European power to a globalized power 46 2.1. Asia-Pacific strategy 50 2.2. Russia, China and their neighbors 55 2.3. Siberia and the Far East as a region for cooperation and new economic growth 67 2.4. Three capitals: Moscow, St. Petersburg, New Vladivostok Research background and acknowledgments This paper is based on the analytical report Asian Vector prepared by the National Research University-Higher School of Economics in 2010; abstracts from Through Harmonious Development to Regional Stability: Russia and China in a New Global Architecture prepared by the Asian Section of the Valdai International Discussion Club in 2010; abstracts from To the Great Ocean: Russia and Asia, or Russia in Asia? prepared by the Asian Section of the Valdai International Discussion Club in 2011; the reports Russia as a Euro-Pacific Power: New Trends in Asian Regional Architecture and the Role of Russia and Korean Peninsula: Challenges and Opportunities for Russia prepared by the Russian World Foundation; and a number of other articles and reports prepared by Russian and foreign experts. The authors express their deep appreciation to professor of National Research University Higher School of Economics Vladimir Ryzhkov, President of Far East and Siberia NPF Association Fyodor Lukovtsev as well as to all the participants in the Asian (December 3–4, 2011) and the Russian-American (December 16–17, 2011) sections of the Valdai International Discussion Club who discussed the report, as well as to the participants in the case study Russia in Asia held on November 3, 2011 with the following speakers: Alexei Borodavkin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in charge of relations with Asian countries and multilateral cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region; Vyacheslav Belokrenitsky, D.Sc. in History, Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Alexander Vorontsov, Ph.D. in History, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies; Igor Zevelev, D.Sc. in Psychology, Director of the Moscow Branch of the MacArthur Foundation; Vladimir Korsun, Ph.D. in History, Associate Professor at the Department of Oriental Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Foreign Ministry; Sergei Luzyanin, D.Sc. in History, Professor, Deputy Director of the Institute of the Far East, Russian Academy of Sciences; Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs; Sergei Lunyov, D.Sc. in History, Professor in the International Politics Department of the Higher School of Economics; Alexei Maslov, D.Sc. in History, Professor, Head of the Department of Oriental Studies, Higher School of Economics; Vyacheslav Kulagin, Ph.D. in Economics, Deputy Head of the Department of the Russian and International Oil and Gas Industry at the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Vladimir Petrovsky, D.Sc. in Psychology, Center for International Projects at RIA Novosti; Viktor Sumsky, D.Sc. in History, Director of the ASEAN Center at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Foreign Ministry; Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, Assistant Dean for Research in the International Economics and Politics Department of the Higher School of Economics and Deputy Director of Research Programs at the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy; Sergei Chernyshev, Director of the Asia and Africa Department at the Ministry of Economic Development. The authors wish to express their gratitude to the young researchers from the Higher School of Economics Anastasia Likhachyova, Igor Makarov and Alina Savelyeva who helped prepare the report and contributed to the initial research and analysis report in 2010. The authors have prepared two versions of the report: a detailed summary and a full variant, complete with numerous charts, statistical materials and augmented with more evidences supporting the theses. The full version is considered the principal one. This report is the full version, summary is available at http://valdaiclub.com/ Toward the Great Ocean, or the New Globalization of Russia Introduction: The World Around Russia International relations are returning to their development of societies, states, nations – all usual chaotic state of affairs. This return to of humankind in fact, including Russians and the status quo ante is proceeding against Russia. The world outside is becoming more the backdrop of an unusually high level of important for Russia than ever before (as it interdependence between all countries and is for virtually every other country). Depen- nations, the globalization of economic and dence on the external world has been steadily environmental processes, and unprecedent- and irreversibly increasing. To become a ed information openness of societies. The strong and modern state, Russia needs to align its national development strategy more closely to the mac- ro trends of global development The key trend of global development is the than anytime before. shift, unprecedented in scale and speed, of The key trend here is the shift, the global economic and political center to unprecedented in scale and the “new Asia,” or more precisely to East speed, of the global economic and Southeast Asia and India and political center to the “new Asia,” or more precisely to East and Southeast Asia and India. gap between the globalization of the world Asia is the driving force behind the economies and de-globalizing governance is probably that have joined or been connected to the the biggest contradiction facing humanity “Asian economic locomotive.” After years of today. But it is also a positive challenge, on semi-stagnation or even decline, economic the answer to which depends the successful growth has been reported in many African VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB ANALYTICAL REPORT 5 Introduction: The World Around Russia countries, which are now supplying raw mate- The restructuring of the global economy is rials and food to China and other countries. continuing, but it is not proceeding in quite the The United States, which has latched onto the way most economists predicted 20–30 years Asian locomotive more successfully than most, ago. The accumulation of the results of human is creating a highly integrated economic and activity and industrial emissions is leading to financial cluster with China and other coun- climate change, though the ultimate results are tries in the region. still unclear. Global warming is complemented by a rapidly growing shortage of fresh water and many other raw materials. There is new geopo- At this new stage of global development, litical competition for the areas Russia’s “territorial curse” is becoming where these commodities, espe- cially food, can be produced. a source not of weakness, but of potential strength At this new stage of global devel- opment, Russia’s “territorial curse” is becoming a source not of weakness, but of potential Russia has so far been unable to participate strength. Whereas in the past Russia needed in this process, despite the fact that two- its huge territory mainly as a buffer against thirds of its territory is located in Asia. It is potential external invaders, now, given the being held back by the backwardness of its right economic strategy, it could become a infrastructure, an underdeveloped economy vital source of new competitiveness. and the demographic situation, but even more so by its obsolete Euro-centric foreign The upheavals and uprisings of the Arab trade and economic mentality. Spring and the growth of protest movements in the West clearly point to a new trend – the The shift towards Asia has started on the growth of socio-political instability. level of political declarations. Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have repeatedly talked There are many reasons for this, but the big- about the need to turn towards Asia. In one of gest one is the unprecedentedly rapid and his election articles, Putin declared a desire “to widespread growth of social inequality and the catch the Chinese wind in the sails of our econ- gap between rich and poor. omy.” In May 2012 Ministry for the Develop- ment of the Russian Far East was established. In industrialized countries we can confidently However, the pace of change in Russia at the predict that growing international competi- level of economic strategy is still fairly slow tion will lead to a rise in leftist and rightwing and there is the ever-present possibility of nationalist sentiments and the erosion of the false starts or political mistakes. middle class, who are the basis for center-right 6 MOSCOW, JULY, 2012 Toward the Great Ocean, or the New Globalization of Russia and center-left parties. The West has entered a tradictions with the world’s leading powers that period of socio-political turbulence, which will could escalate into open confrontation. make it a more difficult partner.
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