VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT

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RUSSIA, CHINA, AND USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A BALANCE OF INTERESTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

Timofey Bordachev, Wan Qingsong, Andrew Small

MOSCOW, SEPTEMBER 2016 Authors

Timofey Bordachev Programme Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Ph.D. in Political Science Andrew Small Senior Transatlantic Fellow, Asia program, German Marshall Fund of the United States Wan Qingsong Research Fellow of the Center for Russian Studies (the National Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences under the Ministry of Education of PRC), School of Advanced International and Area Studies at East China Normal University; Research Fellow of the Center for Co-development with Neighboring Countries (University - Based Think Tank of Shanghai); holds a Doctorate in Political Science

The authors express their gratitude for assistance in preparing the report and selection of reference materials to Kazakova Anastasia, Research Assistant, Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University – Higher School of Economics.

The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Valdai Discussion Club, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Contents

Introduction: The Challenge of Central Asia ...... 3

The Interests of the Parties ...... 5

Areas of Cooperation...... 14 RUSSIA, CHINA, AND USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A BALANCE OF INTERESTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

The extent and potential for confrontation between the major powers is signifi cantly lower in Central Asia than in the Asia-Pacifi c region (APR), Eastern Europe or the Middle East. The potential for cooperation is greater because Russia, China, and especially the United States have no vital need to dominate in the region. Therefore, none of these three powers will unleash a war against the others for the sake of Central Asia – as compared to Europe or Southeast Asia, for example. This fact alone could serve as a powerful resource for the development of trilateral cooperation that could become deep and substantive, or remain non-binding in character.

Introduction: The Challenge of Central Asia

At first glance, cooperation between will try to create a new “caliphate” in Central the U.S., China, and Russia for maintaining Asia – especially because, according to experts, security in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, it is safer for them to operate in that region than Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) in North Africa. Tensions are already escalating might seem to have little chance of success. significantly in the Central Asian areas that However, the authors of this report believe border Afghanistan. that Washington, Moscow, and Beijing hold Despite the significant progress that signifi cant resources for cooperating to provide the existing regimes have achieved in stabilizing elements of regional security in Central Asia. the Central Asian “fi ve” (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, At the same time, these resources come with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) obvious limitations. Maximum effort should following the collapse of the Soviet Union, go toward advancing the common good so that the current prospects for those states to achieve confrontation does not dominate the agenda. internal stability are increasingly uncertain. To reduce the potential for confl ict as much as Outside observers see no clear mechanism possible, the three major powers would do well for the transfer of power after the ruling to explore thoroughly the potential areas and “patriarchs” in Astana and Tashkent inevitably opportunities available to them for cooperation. leave the scene due to natural causes. Even The Central Asian region the internal stability that does exist suffers is a growing concern to its neighbors and occasional setbacks by outbursts of violence, to major non-regional players. It borders one as happened, for example, in early June of this of the most dangerous hotbeds of radicalism year in the Kazakh city of Aktobe, and in July today – Afghanistan, whose territory is also in the former capital of Kazakhstan, Alma-Ata. home to a signifi cant number of ethnic Tajiks Having gained independence and and Uzbeks. It is very possible that, after their sovereignty after the collapse of the Soviet inevitable defeat in the Middle East, Islamic State1 Union, the countries of Central Asia (CA) became full-fl edged participants in international relations. However, they are still working 1 Banned in Russia. – Ed. note.

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to achieve self-suffi ciency in terms of socio- it introduced its “Neighborhood Policy,” economic and institutional development, and a Euro-centric integrative entity aimed at in maintaining internal political stability and stabilizing its neighbors by encouraging them state integrity. The interests of the outside actors to adopt EU institutional practices and norms. overlap to a remarkable degree in this respect. In other words, this project could transform In particular, China, Russia, and the United its participants and provide them with further States, despite their “history of relations” preferences on the condition that they fulfi lled with CA, are essentially interested a certain set of criteria. By contrast, Russia and in the same thing – preventing the region China do not seek to transform, but to stabilize from becoming another hotbed of global the political regimes in Central Eurasia, to freeze instability. The U.S. is most interested in how the situation there as much as possible, and for these issues play out in the global context, as long as possible. whereas Russia and China focus more on their Thus, Russia and China are more likely regional signifi cance and the potential problems to choose a paradigm for cooperation in Central that can extend across borders. Asian, at least on paper, if not in practice. The fact that both Russia and China Moreover, efforts to stabilize the region could want to prevent current or future instability become a unifying factor for Russia and China in Kazakhstan and the rest of Central Asia from in the overall global context and could lead spreading into their territories makes it logical to a sort of “proto-alliance” between them2. At that they look for ways to cooperate rather the same time, of course no one can drag China than compete. Potential instability in Central into Central Asia against its will. It is important Eurasia is a sort of “perfect common challenge” to examine the actual conditions that exist for that Russia and China can resolve only with both powers to cooperate with the U.S., and with a rational, positive sum game. The geographic other non-regional players. proximity of this potentially explosive region Multilateral cooperation in the region is an important consideration for both major should in no way prompt China to view powers. Kazakhstan and Central Asia directly the process as “strategic encirclement.” Under border China’s troubled problem-plagued no circumstances would Russia invite non- Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as well as regional players into Central Asia. However, Russia’s vitally important Urals and Central Moscow should help to ensure that the real Siberian regions. Both powers realize that, potential and diplomatic maneuverings of those if the situation were to deteriorate, they could outside powers contribute to regional stability not simply foist problems onto the other party, and to responsible behavior on the part but would have to cooperate “on the spot.” of the regional elite. It is good to see that these Russia and China have a variety elite now conduct themselves like important of formats for cooperation they can offer and responsible partners, and it is necessary to neighboring Central Asian countries to support them on this path. looking to improve internal stability. Consider The United States is unquestionably the counter-example of efforts by the European the most important non-regional player Union to stabilize its own periphery. After 2 the EU expanded successfully in 2004–2007, See Valdai paper #50 “Russia and China in Central Asia: the great win-win game”, author – T. Bordachev.

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in Central Asia and it is diffi cult to determine especially because Washington continues the potentially positive contribution that to hold signifi cant infl uence in Central Asian it could make to security in Central Asia. capitals – although observers believe that Signs have appeared that U.S. policy seeks infl uence is diminishing. to accentuate possible elements of mistrust This paper aims to study the basic between Moscow and Beijing on issues related approaches of the three powers, identify areas to Central Asia. At the same time, some Russian of potential cooperation in Central Asia, experts believe that Washington is looking and to point out factors that might limit to bypass Russia and establish a direct such cooperation. Despite the difference dialogue with the Chinese authorities on issues in the approaches of the three states, of regional security and economic cooperation, and in the instruments they use in their that it often casts Russia as a “declining” force relations with the Central Asian republics, and China as a “growing” force – implying that the existence of similar goals makes it possible Beijing would therefore benefit more from to lay the foundation for mutually benefi cial cooperation with the United States. multilateral cooperation in a number of areas. As a rule, the Chinese authorities take There are no serious grounds at present to hope a nuanced position. The Chinese reacted with for comprehensive and wide-ranging cooperation restraint, if not irritation to increased U.S.– between China, Russia, and the United States, Russian cooperation in Central Asia following but this does not preclude the possibility September 11, 2001. However, it would probably of coordinating actions in the region. Our task not be very farsighted for Russia and China in this regard is to formulate a positive agenda to try to exclude the U.S. from regional affairs, for the three powers to interact in Central Asia.

The Interests of the Parties

Eurasia’s incredible potential structures that would foster cooperation has increasingly placed it at the center in the region and that share the common aim of international attention in the early 21st of strengthening economic ties and expanding century. Here, regional institutions could be cooperation between states. However, created and commonly accepted principles a question naturally arises: Are China, Russia, applied that would ensure a leading global role and the United States partners or competitors for Eurasia in the future. However, the region’s in Central Asia? Which is the more likely search for its own identity remains an scenario – a clash of interests or mutually important issue. The New Silk Road initiative beneficial cooperation? of the U.S. administration, the Eurasian The objectives of the three projects Economic Union integrative project, and and their geographic locations intersect China’s Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) in one way or another, so the relationship all offer visions for international political between the three powers will largely

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depend on whether they can reach agreement For its part, Central Asia is looking among themselves. In terms of cost and forward to a new influx of investments benefit, cooperation has always been in the local infrastructure, primarily the best way to reduce confrontation and in connection with the launch of China’s SREB thus ensure stability, prosperity, and peace project in which many countries in the region in the international community. Hence, plan to participate. Whereas the majority the key question is: How to prepare the ground of such plans were openly political in the past, for cooperation between China, Russia, and they now focus on attracting the investment the U.S. in Central Asia, and how to realize their necessary for their implementation. So far, enormous potential? In other words, the three the SREB has made only modest progress countries need to defi ne clearly their priorities toward its financial goals. However, and areas of cooperation in the region. the Chinese government did create an Central Asia is one of those rare regions SREB fund in 2014 and promised to endow where the three powers share not only it with $40 billion, according to official common interests, but also modest examples statements. To date it has carried out two of mutually beneficial cooperation. investment projects, putting $1.65 billion The three powers have repeatedly into a hydroelectric power station in Karot, worked together to deal with the internal Pakistan, and acquiring a 9.9% stake in Yamal situation in Afghanistan and to battle LNG from the Russian company Novatek. international terrorism – from coordinating Geopolitical and ideological differences their actions on the Northern Distribution will undoubtedly prove a hindrance to closer Network to recent U.S.-Chinese cooperation cooperation between the three powers, in the ongoing peace-making process with especially between the U.S. on one hand, the Taliban regime. The three countries also and Russia and China on the other. For this work together within the framework of various reason, the agenda for cooperation put forth international institutions – from financial here is strictly a preliminary proposal. Those regulators to the UN Security Council. in the U.S., Russia, and China who are working Several areas with potential for long- to identify and study the areas with potential term cooperation have recently emerged. to bring all three sides into closer cooperation The partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from should consider Central Asia, where Afghanistan has helped reduce distrust over the extent and potential for confrontation the presence of permanent U.S. military bases between the major powers is signifi cantly near Chinese and Russian borders. The rise lower than in the Asia-Pacific region of the Islamic State prompted widespread (APR), Eastern Europe or the Middle East. concern about the risk of militants relocating The potential for cooperation is greater to Central Asia. After Tehran signed because Russia, China, and especially the nuclear agreement for which Russia, the United States have no vital need China, and the United States had invested to dominate in the region. As a result, none considerable effort, Iran was able to “get of these three powers will unleash a war back into the game,” thus also contributing against the others for the sake of Central to greater integration in the region. Asia. Although, due to its proximity, Central

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Asia presents a more immediate security A number of factors dictate U.S. concern to Russia and China than to the United interests in Central Asia. Unlike Russia, whose States, Russia and the U.S. depend more role in the region began in the 19th century, on the situation in Europe for their survival, and especially China whose involvement and China’s vital interests lie primarily predates that considerably, the U.S. with the maritime trade routes of East and is a relative newcomer, first entering the area Southeast Asia. when the former Soviet republics proclaimed Definitions vary as to what constitutes their independence in 1991. In a region Central Asia, but researchers most often dominated by continental powers, the U.S. refer to the five former Soviet republics has occupied a very modest position. Even of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, at the peak of military operations Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The authors feel it in Afghanistan, Washington’s primary goal is important to focus on this region, as distinct was the fight against terrorism, without from larger Eurasia. Centuries-old Russian any mention of a wider set of strategic and European sources refer to this area as interests in the region. Thereafter, the U.S. Turkestan – the “Land of the Turks.” attempted to pursue a more consistent line Most of the ongoing regional initiatives of action in Central Asia – namely are transcontinental in nature in that one of “ensuring conditions whereby they involve cooperation among not only the republics can preserve their sovereignty the traditional Central Asian republics, and independence” (primarily from but also with neighboring states that have Russia and China), eliminating the threat some connection with them. Similarly, of transnational terrorism, fighting drug many of the current threats in the region trafficking and organized crime, encouraging are essentially cross-border in character – diversification in energy policies, supporting whether the rise in military confrontation, drug the states in utilizing the opportunities trafficking, or increased activity by specific available to them, containing extremist militant groups such as the Islamic Movement forces in the region, and helping the region of Uzbekistan whose members hail from to participate in the global economy. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the countries Central Asia served for some time as of Central Asia. It is therefore essential that any a major hub of U.S. military deployment form of cooperation must also be broad in scope in Afghanistan, especially in the initial to be effective. Such cooperation must stages of those operations when Washington invite not only the Central Asian republics lost its supply route through Pakistan and to participate actively, but also the member had to establish nearby bases elsewhere. states of the Shanghai Cooperation The importance of the Northern Distribution Organization (SCO), Turkmenistan, Iran, Network has risen dramatically since then. and the countries of South and Southwest Nevertheless, despite its willingness to pay Asia. With regard to Iran, a more detailed for access to military bases in Uzbekistan analysis is required to determine opportunities and Kyrgyzstan, the U.S. has not developed for cooperation in light of that country’s any broad cooperation with the Central Asian growing importance to the region. republics.

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Washington has relatively few economic agreement on issues related to Central Asia, ties with Central Asia3, although trade volume in part because Washington does not actively with the region gradually increased during promote democratic values there, meaning the decade starting in 2004, spiking in 2014 that ideological divisions are unlikely by 94% from $1.693 billion to $3.276 billion to occur. The one exception is the concern before plummeting by 47% in 2015 to $1.73 that new “color revolutions” could develop. billion. Trade with Kazakhstan accounts for It is apparently necessary to reach some form approximately 78% of that volume, Uzbekistan of unofficial consensus on whether to support represents 9% of the total, Turkmenistan so-called “color revolutions” – a phenomenon 8%, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan 3% each. that China fears, the U.S. welcomes, and Russia The devaluation of the Kazakh national approaches with some flexibility, as seen by its currency against the U.S. dollar was reaction to events in Kyrgyzstan in 2010. the primary cause for the sharp drop in both Chinese interests in Central Asia took exports (–57%) and imports (–37%)4. Beyond practical form in the creation of the SREB that, the U.S. has made almost no investments concept, indicating a geographic change in any sector in Central Asia other than in priority. “China’s pivot to the West” a few isolated cases of U.S. energy companies is dictated by Beijing’s fear of the possible investing in oil and gas projects in the region. spread of non-traditional threats from Central At the political level, the United Asia. This, in turn, became the impetus for States initiated a variety of projects such creating the SCO in the 1990s, as well as its as the New Silk Road and the integration predecessors. However, Beijing’s concerns only of major roads, water supplies, and energy increased following the “color revolutions” infrastructure both between Central Asian of the 2000s. Nonetheless, China’s energy states and in cooperation with South and economic interests continued to grow Asian countries. Here again, however, not rapidly, and led to a large-scale project for a single initiative received adequate funding. the construction of a pipeline network in 2003. Following the partial withdrawal of its troops, The Central Asian countries are Washington again attempted to shift its focus developing markedly because of their closer from security issues to economic cooperation, economic ties with China. Those relations have an approach that would necessarily imply grown so deep that China is becoming one coordination with major regional powers. of the region’s most significant trade partners, Thus, with Central Asia serving investors, and financial sponsors. According as a favorable venue for the confluence to official statistics, the volume of that mutual of Russian, Chinese, and U.S. interests, trade totaled only $460 million when China mutually beneficial cooperation – albeit established diplomatic relations with the five not comprehensive and full-scale – can countries of Central Asia in 1992. Twenty years develop in a wide range of areas. It would be later, in 2012, that indicator had increased much easier for the three powers to reach 100 times, to almost $46 billion. In addition, China continues to welcome the development of such tools for cooperation as the EEU, 3 Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. 4 UNCTAD statistics. CSTO, and SCO, as evidenced by the Joint

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Statement of the Russian Federation and Central Asia, Russia would have to devote the People’s Republic of China on Cooperation enormous resources – both military and in Conjugation of Construction of the Eurasian financial – to ensure the inviolability of that Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic border. As the situations in Syria and Iraq have Belt adopted at a summit in Moscow on May 8, shown, the seizure by terrorists of population 2015. That document speaks, in particular, centers and roads poses very complex of the need to begin talks on an agreement challenges to law enforcement agencies. It for trade and economic cooperation between is vital that Russia prevent that “recipe for the EEU and China, using the SCO as a platform unrest” from spreading from the Middle East for linking the EEU and the SREB. into its own backyard – a possibility that In this way, China supports admittedly looks increasingly plausible with the territorial integrity of Central Asia and each passing year. contributes to the political stability of its Two states in the region – Kazakhstan individual states. At the same time, Chinese and Kyrgyzstan – are members of the Eurasian President Xi Jinping offered assurances that Economic Union, while Tajikistan participates China does not seek dominance in the region in the Collective Security Treaty Organization or the creation of zones of influence there. (CSTO). Within the framework of the latter, To the contrary, Beijing encourages those Russia is directly responsible for protecting countries to cooperate with Moscow and other its allies from external threats and ensuring countries of Eurasia. their territorial integrity and sovereignty. According to the Chinese leadership, Recall that Moscow has always found ways the Silk Road Economic Belt aims to carry out to help resolve basic problems of security and combine a variety of interests and serves in the region. Even during the 1990s that as a development tool for the region through were so difficult for the Russian economy, which the land route passes for Chinese society, and military, Moscow was not exports. Once the U.S. withdraws its troops from indifferent to the tragic events of the civil war Afghanistan, China will have to play a more in Tajikistan that claimed tens of thousands active political role to ensure regional security. of lives. First, Russian troops provided In contrast to the past two decades, Beijing protection for the civilian population. Later, is increasingly aware of its responsibility Russia played a leading role, together with in that regard. At the same time, China makes Iran and Uzbekistan, in providing a start for a concerted effort to exercise caution with the peace process and national reconciliation. regard to Russia’s interests in the region. With And, up through the mid-2000s, several China’s economic presence far surpassing its dozen Russian soldiers gave their lives while political infl uence in Central Asia, Russia has defending Tajikistan’s southern border from no cause to react negatively to its activities. incursions by religious radicals. Security concerns largely dictate Another significant factor Russia’s interests in the region. Russia’s is the economic interdependence between incredibly long land border with Kazakhstan Russia and the Central Asian states that was could itself present a serious challenge based from the very beginning on cooperation to national security. If instability spreads into over labor resources.

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2016 9 RUSSIA, CHINA, AND USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A BALANCE OF INTERESTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

COUNTRIES EXPORTING THE GREATEST NUMBER OF LABORERS TO RUSSIA IN 2015

UZBEKISTAN 57 20 TAJIKISTAN

%

KAZAKHSTAN 0

TURKMENISTAN 0 10 KYRGYZSTAN

UKRAINE 1 6 MOLDOVA

AZERBAIJAN 2 4 ARMENIA

Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service

See also http://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics

See also http://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics

10 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2016 RUSSIA, CHINA, AND USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A BALANCE OF INTERESTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

DISTRIBUTION OF FOREIGN WORKERS

Engaged in legal labor activity in Russia in 2015, by main areas of economic activity Kazakhstan KyrgyzstanTajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Management positions; organizations, enterprises, 21 879 1,193 51 4,511 and their departments

Natural sciences and engineering 12 411 965 93 3,247

Employment requiring PLGOHYHOTXDOLˉFDWLRQV in manual and engineering 12 5,553 14,641 10 62,728 activities

Financial, economic, and administrative activities 3 286 561 4 1,120

Sales 1,403 792 2 1,599

Agriculture, ˉVKLQJKXQWLQJ 13 571 3,186 13,741

Construction, installation, 135 10,582 39,132 100 111,040 and repair and remodeling work

Machine industry 33 1,588 4,721 1 16,262

Mechanical trades, operators, machinists 10 5,166 13,513 9 38,536

Unskilled workers 69 2,677 48,830 15 111,020

Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service See also http://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics

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The EEU has proven an important and transport and logistics projects involving tool in recent years for regulating that Chinese investment. Among other things, that interdependence. Russia should welcome makes it possible to increase the volume of trade economic growth in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, between EEU member countries – an important including through the development of industrial objective of the union’s functioning.

TRADE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES, 1995-2015 (%)

Export Import 74.3 76.8 69.3 69.8 61.1 57.7 45.4 47.1

23.88

KAZAKHSTAN 9.57

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

KYRGYZSTAN 4.1 6.2 3.0 3.1 2.2 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.34 2.86 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

18 TAJIKISTAN 6.7 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.0 1.5 4.9 0.6 5.2 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

22.2 15.4 15 TURKMENISTAN 7.4 8.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 4.4 0.84 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

35.3 27.5 29.3 25 20.9 23.4 11.6 11.2 11.7 14 8=%(.,67$1Ŕ

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: Eurasian Economic Commission, Russian State Statistics Service, UNCTADStat data See also http://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics

12 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2016 RUSSIA, CHINA, AND USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A BALANCE OF INTERESTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

THE SHARE OF CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN TRADE, 1995-2015 (%)

12

10 Share of CA countries in Russian exports 8 Share of CA countries 6 in Russian imports 4

2

0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: http://www.cisstat.com/ See also http://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics

See also http://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2016 13 RUSSIA, CHINA, AND USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A BALANCE OF INTERESTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

Areas of Cooperation

In the context of the global crisis, Central especially acute due to mutual Western and Russian Asia faces serious threats from the rise of religious sanctions – has contributed to the worsening extremism, radicalism, and terrorist activity of the situation in the region. in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. All of this underscores the need for The region is already dealing with problems caused outside powers to assist the Central Asian states by the aggravation of old security challenges, along to meet the global challenges facing them. It with entirely new security concerns. is clear they cannot manage this task without The old security challenges include, above all, the help of major systemic players such as Russia, the situation in Afghanistan, where crises continue the United States, and China. In fact, recent world to intensify. The most dangerous threat in this history has repeatedly demonstrated that no regard is the increased concentration of militants country can cope with today’s security threats that began in 2014–2015 in northern Afghanistan single-handedly. Russia, China, and the U.S. are all near the borders of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and vitally interested in the struggle against the “forces Uzbekistan. Islamic State militants see Afghan of evil” and the whole range of cross-border threats territory as a base for expanding their infl uence in Central Asia: drug traffi cking, organized crime, in the Central Asian republics, and a number the intensifi cation of uncontrolled migration, etc. of Islamic State training centers are actively In this regard, the authors consider it preparing militants who are native to CA and necessary to create a common peacekeeping several regions of Russia. The Russian General Staff platform to combat terrorist groups estimates that 2,000–3,000 Islamic State militants without linking this cooperation are currently located in Afghanistan, and that their to other issues of the powers’ trilateral relations. number continues to grow. The implementation of such a project seems entirely The Islamic State is posing yet another realistic considering their previous experience threat from the direction of the Middle East. of cooperation in this area. For example, after Brookings Institution experts estimate that 500 September 11, 2001, the U.S. and Russia cooperated natives of Uzbekistan, 360 of Turkmenistan, successfully in Central Asia, China, and Russia within 350 of Kyrgyzstan, 250 of Kazakhstan, and 190 the framework of the SCO. Such experience is very of Tajikistan have joined the fi ghting in Syria and valuable because it demonstrates that the countries Iraq. The most recent estimates, based on data from are willing to compromise in areas in which they CSTO authorities, indicate that more than 10,000 have shared values. That can serve as the basis for citizens of Russia, Central Asia, and western China further cooperation on, for example, demonstrating have joined the ranks of international terrorists. respect for the diversity of civilizations and cultures, Radical Islam in Afghanistan and the Middle East work for the peace and stability of mankind, the fi ght increasingly poses a threat to security in Central against inhuman acts, etc. Asia. The region has traditionally been a “breeding Although the authors favor a political ground” for the new type of radical terrorist groups solution to this problem, we nevertheless ideology. In addition, serious interstate confl icts acknowledge the possibility that military over water resources in the region greatly hamper force might be needed, especially given cooperation on a wide range of issues. Moreover, the current situation in areas near Central Asia and the sharp fall in global commodity prices and in the Middle East. As the main centers of global the resulting economic crisis – that has become power, Russia, China, and the U.S. must take greater

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responsibility for the smaller countries. The creation to the creation of a common infrastructure of such a platform for cooperation is therefore not and industrial space, the spread of the Russian only necessary, but satisfi es the common interests language as a tool of international communication, of all three powers. and the formation of a shared cultural space. In terms of content, the “common These factors provide the basis for integration peacekeeping platform” could include joint and enduring cooperation in the economic, peacekeeping operations such as the prevention security, and humanitarian fields. In that way, of armed confl ict and peace implementation, the countries of Central Asia can avoid the threat crisis settlement, operations for maintaining of marginalization while strengthening their the peace, peace-building and the responsibility role in influencing regional and international to protect. Such operations would focus affairs. The general desire to strengthen regional on the fight against extremism and radical integration as a means to counter external threats, ideologies in the region, the settlement of regional overcome diffi culties, and ensure economic growth confl icts, the resolution of disagreements between suggests the possibility that such cooperation could Central Asian states, and on regional security extend over the long term. in general. The potential of the SCO and CSTO as It is important to note that the integrity tools for managing such issues has yet to develop and stability of Central Asia does not require that fully, and it is still too early to assess the recently those governments be secretive and conservative. begun active cooperation between China, the U.S., On the contrary, it suggests an open and pluralistic Pakistan, and Afghanistan regarding the problems form of cooperation between the countries. Only of the latter. Thus, a common peacekeeping in this way can China, Russia, and the U.S. interact platform could lay the foundation for creating an productively in Central Asia. institution of transnational political interaction As a relatively weak latecomer between Russia, China, and the U.S. that would to the globalization process, Central Asia remains ensure timely dialogue and fruitful cooperation. something of an enclave in comparison with other With regard to Afghanistan as a field for developed regions of the world. On one hand, that cooperation, a broader agenda is needed – namely, condition might increasingly push Central Asia the restoration of peace, support of the Afghan into the periphery and widen the gap separating government, and the establishment of the long- it from the leading countries of the modern world. term stability of the state. China, Russia, and On the other hand, it opens up opportunities for the United States should all invest in the future Central Asia to participate in global development. of Afghanistan. Whether this potential is properly valued or utilized The three powers could also cooperate with depends not only on the policies of the Central the goal of preserving the integrity of the region Asian states, but also on their interaction with and the political stability of the Central Asian states. the major players – Russia, the U.S., China, and Preserving the historically close political, economic, the European Union. and cultural ties between Russia and the countries Situated at opposite ends of the Eurasian of the region helps preserve the integrity and continent, Western Europe and East Asia enjoy stability of the region as a whole. The high relatively favorable conditions and opportunities for degree of economic interdependence between their own development. However, Central Eurasia, the countries of the former Soviet Union contributed and particularly Central Asia, constantly face

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2016 15 RUSSIA, CHINA, AND USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A BALANCE OF INTERESTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

numerous diffi culties and problems due to adverse Along with studying the potential for environmental conditions and the lack of direct economic cooperation in order to develop access to foreign markets. If Central Asia gains the necessary infrastructure in the region and opportunities for its all-round development, it will a trans-regional transport system, it is necessary strengthen the individual countries as independent to gauge the effectiveness of the existing states and as active participants in the overall institutions of governance in the region. In this process of integration and globalization. regard, the three major powers could consider In this connection, economic interaction the possibility of coordinating their activities could serve as the third area of cooperation to help create effective regional organizations and in Central Asia between Russia, China, and the U.S., structures of governance. although a certain degree of unspoken competition As long as there are institutions and is inevitable. Such competition could motivate processes that involve all three parties, such as the three major powers to undertake joint projects Heart of Asia, all the prerequisites exist for creating for promoting the development of the regional well-functioning institutions capable of resolving economy and the creation of a trans-regional political differences and finding solutions transport system, while looking at the region’s to economic problems in the region. It is often integration into the global economy as a long-term more effective to engage at the regional than at goal. It is in these particular areas that the interests the global level. For that reason, the three powers of the three major powers favorably coincide and should work to create such formats for cooperation lay the foundation for achieving overall balance. as, for example, the U.S.–SCO, an approach that, For example, Russia’s strength lies in its history although functioning somewhat haphazardly at of close political, economic, and cultural ties with present, holds defi nite advantages in specifi c areas. Central Asia; China brings signifi cant fi nancial and Thus, if the political will is present, Moscow, investment capabilities to the table; and the U.S. Beijing, and Washington would have much to gain offers advanced technologies and innovations, by identifying common priorities in the region and along with rich administrative experience. cooperating to achieve them. Conversely, if tensions Speaking more globally, cooperation between were to grow between China, Russia, and the U.S., China, Russia, and the U.S. could focus on creating it would only make Central Asia more fragmented, conditions for sustainable development isolated, dangerous, and unmanageable and in the region, together with such international the countries in the region more vulnerable and development institutions as the World Bank, unpredictable. the AIIB, BRICS, and the EDB. This could provide Despite the absence of any open a good test of how ready the region is to become confrontation between the three major powers, a platform for cooperation among a wide variety serious differences between them make it unlikely of players. that they will engage in comprehensive and wide- As a separate initiative, the countries could ranging cooperation in Central Asia in the near cooperate to provide social services to Central future. Nonetheless, it is extremely important Asian countries in accordance with their specifi c that they search for areas of potential cooperation needs. Scientifi c cooperation at the expert level for in the region to help ensure a better future for joint research and development projects is another Central Asia, and as a possible stepping-stone important area of focus. to improved relations between each other.

16 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2016 #Valdaiclub

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