Alderley Edge : Review of Housing Requirements

A Report by Regeneris Consulting

HOW Planning on behalf of the

Sims Family

Alderley Edge : Review of Housing Requirements

February 2013 Regeneris Consulting Ltd

www.regeneris.co.uk

● Alderley Edge : Review of Housing Requirements ●

Contents

1. Introduction 1

2. Local Context 2

3. Housing Requirements for Alderley Edge 5

● Alderley Edge : Review of Housing Requirements ●

1. Introduction

1.1 Consultation has recently commenced on the Cheshire East Development Strategy. The Development Strategy puts forward an overall housing requirement for Cheshire East of 1,350 net new dwellings per annum, on average, over the period 2010 to 2030.

1.2 In a separate main report, Regeneris Consulting have provided evidence as to why the proposed overall housing requirement for Cheshire East is too low and that a housing requirement of somewhere in the range of 1,600 to 1,800 net new dwellings per annum is needed.

1.3 The Development Strategy has considered various options for the distribution of the housing requirement across the settlements of Cheshire East. These options are listed at Appendix D of the Development Strategy1.

1.4 Alderley Edge is one of 13 settlements contained within the Local Service Centre grouping in the Development Strategy. When combined, the Local Service centres are earmarked for 7% of the total housing delivery in Cheshire East over the period 2010 to 2030. This equates to 95 houses per annum or 1,900 over the whole plan period. The earlier Cheshire East Issues and Options Paper included allocations of both 7% and a higher 9% for the Local Service Centres.

1.5 Neither the Development Strategy nor the earlier Issues and Options paper included housing targets for the 13 individual settlements within the Local Service Centre grouping.

1.6 The purpose of this short report is to advise on the appropriateness of the housing target for the Local Service Centres as set out in the Development Strategy, and to make recommendations on the share of the Local Service Centre housing requirement that should be allocated towards Alderley Edge. This report should be read alongside Regeneris Consulting’s main report on the overall housing requirement for Cheshire East.

1 The text in Appendix D implies that it contains the full range of options considered. In fact, it appears to list only the alternative options that were rejected. The preferred option is that which is contained in the main body of the Development Strategy. The Preferred Option appears to comprise a fusion of several of the alternative options.

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2. Local Context

Population in the Local Service Centres

2.1 The 13 Local Service Centres as designated in the Development Strategy comprise Alderley Edge, Audlem, Bollington, Bunbury, Chelford, Disley, Goostrey, Haslington, Holmes Chapel, Mobberley, Prestbury, Shavington and Wrenbury.

2.2 This same categorisation was set out in the Issues and Options Paper of 2010. The Issues and Options document suggests (p59) that 11% of the total households in Cheshire East are located in the Local Service Centres. It is unclear when, or from where, this data was sourced.

2.3 Our own analysis of the 2011 Census, and using best fit LSOAs2 provided by Cheshire East Council, suggests that the Local Service Centres currently account for 13.9% of the borough’s households, a little higher than the data suggested in the Issues and Options analysis3.

2.4 We have also examined the share of Cheshire East’s population in the Local Service Centres and this amounts to 13.5% according to the 2011 Census.

2.5 Alderley Edge is the third largest of the Local Service Centres with a current estimated population of nearly 5,300 – accounting for just over 10% of the Local Service Centre total. Table 2.1 : Population in the Local Service Centres Bollington 7,593 14.9% Holmes Chapel 5,605 11.0% Alderley Edge 5,276 10.3% Haslington 4,737 9.3% Disley 4,444 8.7% Audlem 3,946 7.7% Goostrey 3,846 7.5% Shavington 3,822 7.5% Prestbury 3,398 6.7% Mobberley 3,050 6.0% Bunbury 2,136 4.2% Wrenbury 1,976 3.9% Chelford 1,219 2.4% 51,048 Source : Regeneris Consulting. 2011 Census

2 LSOAs = Lower Super Output Areas. These are small scale statistical building blocks used by government in a variety of datasets. 3 It is quite likely that the Issues and Options report, which was drafted ahead of the release of the 2011 Census data, was using information from the 2001 Census. On the basis of this data, the population and household numbers are likely to have grown in the Local Service Centres more rapidly than across Cheshire East as a whole in the period 2001 to 2011.

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Population Dynamics

2.6 According to Census data, the total population has grown by +9.8% over the last decade in Alderley Edge. This is equivalent to a rise of about +470 residents in the period between 2001 and 2011.

2.7 A breakdown of population change over the last 10 years reveals some worrying trends. There has been very little population growth in the core 25 to 39 age group – this is the category that contains the key family units that underpin the long term sustainability of centres. Conversely there has been a rapid growth in both the 40 to 69 age category, and the over 80s – see Table 2.2. Table 2.2 – Changing Age Structure of Alderley Edge (Census data) Selected Age Bands 2001 2011 % Change Aged 25-39 825 849 +2.9% Aged 40 to 69 1,813 2,166 +19.5% Aged 70-79 552 459 -16.8% Aged over 80 386 530 +37.3% Total 4,804 5,276 +9.8%

2.8 In the same period the number of households has grown by +10.2%, or plus 220 households – an increase of 22 households per annum on average.

2.9 Household growth in the decade 2001-2011 in the Local Service Centres as a whole was +1,490, which is equivalent to +7.2%.

2.10 On the basis of the above, Alderley Edge accounted for 14.8% of the Local Service Centre household growth in the last decade.

Housing Completions

2.11 The latest Cheshire East Annual Monitoring Report (AMR 2010/11) contains data on the geographical split of housing completions in the borough. The data shows the percentage share of housing completions by settlement for the period from 2009 onwards, and separately just for 2010/11.

2.12 The Local Service Centres are grouped together, and as such the AMR does not contain completions data for Alderley Edge. We have requested this information from Cheshire East Council and are awaiting a response.

2.13 The AMR shows that since 2009 just 5% of the completions were in the Local Service Centres. Looking only at the period 2010/11 the share of new housing that was completed in the Local Service Centres was 6%. Recent years have therefore seen a policy of housing restraint in the Local Service Centres relative to the size of their existing household base.

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Choice & Affordability Issues

2.14 Cheshire East’s Issues and Options Report states that (p36)….”over the last decade, strong demand for housing in Cheshire East has contributed to a dramatic increase in house prices and created an acute need for both market and affordable housing to meet the needs of the local community. We want to ensure sufficient affordable housing is provided across Cheshire East, especially in the areas where the gap between house prices and average earnings is the greatest“.

2.15 The latest Cheshire East Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA4) identifies a net requirement for 1,243 affordable homes each year across the district. Further investigation of the Cheshire East SHMA reveals that the net requirement of 1,243 affordable homes each year, broken down as follows:

 613 smaller general needs (one and two bedroom) properties (49.3%);

 446 larger general needs (three or more bedroom) properties (35.8%);

 184 older persons (one and two bedroom) properties (14.9%).

2.16 The SHMA provides some breakdown (Table D14, p170) of where this affordable housing need should be delivered, although the lowest level of geographical sub-analysis is restricted to a grouping of Wilmslow plus Alderely Edge. The SHMA states that there is an annual need for 50 additional affordable homes in Wilmslow and Alderley Edge.

2.17 The earlier Macclesfield Affordable Housing Needs Study of 20085 provided data for the Chelford and Alderley Edge area combined. It noted that average house prices in the Chelford and Alderley Edge area were 8.8 times average incomes, with the house price to income multiple being 6.1 for the former Macclesfield district as a whole and much lower again across the North West region.

2.18 The report also noted:

 …”The Housing Need Survey from 2004 highlighted an annual shortfall of 195 affordable housing units [in the former Macclesfield borough as a whole]. Updating this with more recent information suggests that the situation had not changed a great deal by 2006, with an annual need for 198 affordable properties”. (p62)

 …”The location of new supply is important with the greatest need for affordable housing in Macclesfield town, Wilmslow and Alderley Edge”. (p63)

4 Cheshire East SHMA Final Report. Arc4 Consultants. 2010. 5 Affordable Housing Needs study. April 2008. ECOTEC.

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3. Housing Requirements for Alderley Edge

Overall Cheshire East Target

3.1 Separate analysis by Regeneris Consulting has demonstrated a need for Cheshire East Council to revise upwards the annual housing target contained in the consultation version of the Development Strategy. The current authority-wide target is set at 1,350 net new dwellings per annum. This is insufficient because:

 It ignores the Council’s own modelling of official government housing and population projections – these projections point to an average requirement of 1,600 dwellings per annum to meet projected demographic change.

 It is wholly inconsistent with the “20,000 new jobs” agenda contained elsewhere in the Development Strategy. Information provided to Regeneris Consulting by Cheshire East Council, but not contained in the Development Strategy, shows how a delivery rate of 1,350 is accompanied by a loss of 8,000 working age residents in the plan period. A figure of 1,800 net new dwellings would, assuming the right housing product is delivered, facilitate some expansion of the working age population locally and would be far more consistent with a jobs growth agenda.

3.2 Our conclusion is that the annual target should be increased to somewhere in the range of 1,600 to 1,800 net new dwellings per annum to address the concerns listed above.

Share of Housing Allocated to the Local Service Centres

3.3 The consultation version of the Development Strategy allocates 7% of the authority-wide housing target to a group of 13 Local Service Centres, which includes Alderley Edge. The earlier Issues and Options Report included both a 7% and 9% share to the Local Service Centres.

3.4 Our own analysis highlights that the Local Service Centres currently account for 13.5% of the households within Cheshire East. The Local Service Centres also contain some of the most pressing affordability issues within the Cheshire East authority, partly as a result of the historically low rates of housing completions. For example, in the period since 2009 only 5% of Cheshire East’s new housing has been built in the Local Service Centres.

3.5 The Development Strategy should be seeking to address these affordability issues through the provision of appropriate supply throughout Cheshire East.

3.6 The proposed 7% share is substantially below the current share of households in the Local Service Centres (13.5%) and is only marginally above the restrained rate of house building in the Local Service Centres in the last three years (5% share of all of Cheshire East’s new housing).

3.7 The higher rate of 9%, which was originally proposed in the Issues and Options paper, should be adopted instead.

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Share of Housing Allocated to Alderley Edge

3.8 At no point in either the Issues and Options paper or the Development Strategy is there an attempt to distribute the Local Service Centre housing allocation to individual settlements.

3.9 Alderley Edge is the third largest of the Local Service Centres with a current estimated population of nearly 5,300 – accounting for just over 10% of the Local Service Centre total. Alderley Edge also absorbed 15% of the Local Service Centre household growth in the last decade without any detrimental impacts.

3.10 Affordability issues in Alderley Edge are recognised in various recent research studies. When the most recent review of affordable housing was undertaken in the former Macclesfield borough the report concluded that…”the location of new supply is important with the greatest need for affordable housing in Macclesfield town, Wilmslow and Alderley Edge”.

3.11 With all of the above in mind, it is vital that Alderley Edge provides for a good share of the Local Service Centre housing requirement. This share should be at least 10% and arguably nearer to 15% - based on the existing share of population and the historic share of Local Service Centre growth that has occurred within Alderely Edge.

Conclusion

3.12 Whilst recognising the need for some additional housing in Alderely Edge, the Development Strategy does not quantify this requirement.

3.13 Our analysis, see Table 3.1 over page, shows the need to provide for circa 25 net new dwellings in Alderley Edge each year through the plan period – this equates to circa 500 new dwellings over the 20 year plan period. This is not in excess of the historic rate of household growth over the last decade in Alderley Edge (+22 additional households per annum).

3.14 This target would also go some way to delivering the SHMA target of 50 new affordable units per annum in Wilmslow and Alderley Edge combined.

3.15 For illustrative purposes, if Alderley Edge’s 15% share of Local Service Centre housing were applied to the existing Development Strategy numbers then the annual requirement in the town would be for 15 net new dwellings per annum, or 300 over the whole plan period.

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Table 3.1 : Housing Requirement for Alderley Edge Development Regeneris Review Strategy Cheshire East Annual Requirement 1,350 1,700 (mid point) Share in Local Service Centres 7% 9% Requirement in Local Service Centres (rounded to 95 155 nearest 5) Share of Local Service Centres requirement in Not Quantified 10% 15% Alderley Edge Requirement in Alderley Edge (each year) - 16 23 (say 25) Over Plan Period (2010-2030) - 320 460 (say 500)

The Dangers of Under Provision

3.16 Earlier analysis (see Para 2.7 of this report) demonstrates how the population of Alderley Edge has been ageing significantly in the last decade. Official ONS population forecasts for Cheshire East as a whole6 suggests that this trend will intensify further in the next 20 years.

3.17 Table 3.2 shows how many residents will be in key age cohorts in Alderley Edge in 2030 if the town follows the pattern of predicted population change across Cheshire East. The data shows substantial further ageing of the population – with virtually no extra 20 to 64 year olds in the town and 750 extra pensioners.

Table 3.2 – Potential Changing Age Structure of Alderley Edge Selected Age Bands 2011 2030 % Change 20-64 2,920 2,943 +0.8% 65+ 1,269 2,054 +61.9%

3.18 Average household size in Alderley Edge already reflects the older than average age composition within the town (average household size is 2.19 persons in Alderley Edge versus 2.28 persons at Cheshire East level – source 2011 Census). This average household size is predict to fall further to 2.07 person by 2030 – following predicted reductions in household size across Cheshire East as a whole and reflecting the growing proportion of elderly residents in the area.

3.19 Delivering no new houses in Alderley Edge is not an option. There will be a requirement for circa 200 new houses just to meet the needs arising from the natural ageing of the population and associated reduction in average household size. If no new housing were provided over and above this figure then Alderley Edge will increasingly become a town dominated by older residents and struggling to sustain the range of good quality services and facilities that residents demand.

6 Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2010-based sub national population projections. These are not available seperately for small areas such as Alderley Edge.

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