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Water Security in the Middle East

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Water Security in the Middle East WATER SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST GROWING CONFLICT OVER DEVELOPMENT IN THE EUPHRATES- TIGRIS BASIN By: Patrick MacQuarrie Revised: 26 February 2004 Originally submitted 15 September 2003 Thesis, M.Phil International Peace Studies Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland ABSTRACT WATER SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Growing Conflict over Development in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. By: Patrick MacQuarrie Date: 26 February 2004 Water security of riparian states in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin is increasingly under threat. Continuing conflict over the allocation of water is failing to produce a tripartite agreement between Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Massive hydrodevelopment in southern Turkey threatens to reduce Syrian water on the Euphrates by over 40 percent, and Iraqi water by over 80 percent. After reviewing hydrology in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, Chapter II gives an analysis of the factors affecting Turkey’s water security, outlining the GAP project, Kurdish issue and Turkey’s political aspirations. Chapter III addresses water security for Syria and Iraq and accounts for recent conflicts over water usage. Particular attention is given to Syria and Iraq’s historic rights, irrigation projects, dependence on agriculture and relationship with Kurdistan. Finally, Chapter IV looks at the relationship between water scarcity, expanding resource security and ethical river use, followed by an account of failed attempts at cooperation between riparians and the application of international watercourse law. The research suggests resource security is increasingly political and faces increased threats in the next forty years. Perspectives towards an ethical basin-wide management plan end the thesis in the overall conclusions. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS: Abstract _________________________________________________________________ii Table of Contents: ____________________________________________________________iii List of Maps:_________________________________________________________________iv List of Tables:________________________________________________________________iv List of Figures: _______________________________________________________________ v Introduction ___________________________________________________________ - 1 - CHAPTER I: Geography and Climate of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin_____________ - 3 - CHAPTER II: Turkey, Water and Security. _________________________________ - 9 - Turkey’s pro-development policy and national image _____________________________ - 9 - Priorities for Water Use in Turkey_____________________________________________________ - 9 - Energy Concerns _________________________________________________________________ - 10 - The Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP)_____________________________________ - 11 - History and Influences___________________________________________________________ - 11 - Objectives and Technical Details __________________________________________________ - 13 - Regional Development of Southern Anatolia_________________________________________ - 17 - Security in the South – The Kurdish Issue _____________________________________________ - 17 - Turkey’s image – National Integrity and Financial Constraints _____________________________ - 22 - Military Security and Links to Water _________________________________________________ - 26 - Chapter II Conclusions _____________________________________________________ - 26 - CHAPTER III: Water Security for Downstream Riparians on the Euphrates and Tigris - 28 - Water Security for Syria ____________________________________________________ - 28 - Pressure to Maintain an Agrarian Based Economy_______________________________________ - 28 - Syria’s Water Imperative: The Euphrates Valley Project __________________________________ - 31 - Political Tensions and Historical Rivalries _____________________________________________ - 34 - Syria and the PKK______________________________________________________________ - 34 - The ‘Stolen’ Province of Hatay____________________________________________________ - 36 - Iraq and Water Security ____________________________________________________ - 38 - Ancient Mesopotamia and the Hydraulic Culture ________________________________________ - 38 - Priorities Over Land and Water Quality _______________________________________________ - 40 - Water Quality _________________________________________________________________ - 41 - Iraq’s Water Resources ____________________________________________________________ - 41 - Recent Water Works in Iraq ______________________________________________________ - 43 - Iraqi Water Withdrawals ___________________________________________________________ - 44 - Agriculture and Food Security in Iraq _________________________________________________ - 46 - Iraq’s Economy and Relations with the International Community___________________________ - 47 - Food Production and Nutrition ____________________________________________________ - 47 - Ba’ath Party Rivalry with Syria______________________________________________________ - 48 - Threats to Downstream Riparians Due to Upstream Development _________________ - 49 - Impounding at Turkey’s Keban Reservoir and Syria’s Lake Assad__________________________ - 49 - The Filling Atatürk Reservoir – Agreements verses Downstream Effects_____________________ - 50 - Chapter III Conclusions ____________________________________________________ - 54 - iii CHAPTER IV: Scarcity and Security: Implications for Management of the Euphrates- Tigris Basin __________________________________________________________ - 55 - Regional Scarcity in the Middle East __________________________________________ - 55 - Water-Related Conflict and the Expansion of Traditional Security_________________ - 58 - Environmental Security and a River Ethic to Support Sustainable Development _______________ - 60 - Attempted Agreements between Co-Riparians__________________________________ - 61 - Inert Treaties_____________________________________________________________________ - 61 - The Joint Technical Committee (JTC)_________________________________________________ - 62 - Bilateral Attempts at Water Sharing __________________________________________________ - 63 - Water Management Policy via International Law _______________________________ - 64 - Historic Water Law in the Middle East ________________________________________________ - 64 - Contemporary International Water Law _______________________________________________ - 64 - Harmon Doctrine (absolute territorial sovereignty) ____________________________________ - 66 - Absolute territorial integrity (existing lower riparian rights first) _________________________ - 66 - Equitable and reasonable utilization (UN/ILC Law) ___________________________________ - 67 - UN Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses Convention — Application to the Euphrates-Tigris Basin_____________________________________________________________ - 67 - Outlook for Cooperation – Conclusions____________________________________ - 70 - Bibliography _________________________________________________________ - 72 - LIST OF MAPS: FIGURE 1: Water Resources in Turkey______________________________________________________ - 10 - FIGURE 2: Devaluation of Turkish Lira (TL to US $) __________________________________________ - 25 - FIGURE 3: Share of Public Spending on GAP ________________________________________________ - 25 - FIGURE 4: Population Trends for Syria _____________________________________________________ - 29 - FIGURE 5: Agricultural Import/Export History for Syria _______________________________________ - 30 - FIGURE 6: Land Use in Syria. ____________________________________________________________ - 32 - FIGURE 7: Iraqi Water Supply (various yrs to date) ___________________________________________ - 43 - FIGURE 8: Iraqi Water Balance 1990, 2040 (bcm) ____________________________________________ - 46 - FIGURE 9: Calorie Intake per Capita for Turkey, Syria and Iraq_________________________________ - 48 - FIGURE 10: Water use per capita for Turkey, Syria and Iraq____________________________________ - 56 - LIST OF TABLES: TABLE 1: Riparian Contributions to the Euphrates-Tigris Basin __________________________________ - 6 - TABLE 2: Riparian Contribution to the Euphrates River Basin ___________________________________ - 7 - TABLE 3: Riparian Contribution to the Tigris River Basin _______________________________________ - 7 - TABLE 4: Equitable Use Relative Ranking for Euphrates-Tigris Basin ____________________________ - 68 - TABLE 5: Water Security - Relative Ranking _________________________________________________ - 68 - iv LIST OF FIGURES: FIGURE 1: Water Resources in Turkey______________________________________________________ - 10 - FIGURE 2: Devaluation of Turkish Lira (TL to US $) __________________________________________ - 25 - FIGURE 3: Share of Public Spending on GAP ________________________________________________ - 25 - FIGURE 4: Population Trends for Syria _____________________________________________________ - 29 - FIGURE 5: Agricultural Import/Export History for Syria _______________________________________ - 30 - FIGURE 6: Land Use in Syria. ____________________________________________________________ - 32 - FIGURE 7: Iraqi Water Supply (various yrs to date) ___________________________________________ - 43 - FIGURE 8: Iraqi Water Balance 1990, 2040 (bcm) ____________________________________________ - 46 - FIGURE 9: Calorie Intake per Capita for Turkey, Syria and Iraq_________________________________ - 48 - FIGURE 10: Water use per capita for
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