S5197/457513 Administration www.africa-confidential.com 14 June 2019 - Vol 60 - N° 12 SUDAN BLUE LINES Whether the aims behind Freedom under fire President Paul Kagame’s closure of Gatuna (Ugandans call it Katuna), Rwanda’s busiest border crossing with Uganda in February, were diplomatic, commercial or As it tries to shoot down the democracy protests, the junta underplays the security, it seems to have failed deepening splits in its own ranks on all counts. Although Kagame complained at length to diplomats uch was the horror wreaked by Abdel Fattah el Sisi’s in Egypt. They want and journalists about Ugandan the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) to avoid an open election en route to that. President Yoweri Museveni’s S massacre squad on 3 June that the There is a common bond between ‘betrayal’ and his government’s tentative steps towards dialogue this week the junta leader, General Abdel Fattah alliance with oppositionists such as between the pro-democracy protesters Abdelrahman Burhan and Hemeti (AC tobacco magnate Tribert Rujugiro and the junta have been greeted with some Vol 60 No 9). After running the regime’s Ayabatwa and former chief of staff relief but low expectations in Khartoum. operations in Darfur in 2003 – Burhan of the Rwandan Army, General The inability or unwillingness of was a regional army commander and Kayumba Nyamwasa, Museveni soldiers in the Sudan Armed Forces Hemeti led the pro-regime Janjaweed has dismissed them as non- to protect civilians against murderous militia – the two men jointly coordinated issues. Rujugiro and Nyamwasa attacks by the RSF militia and armed Sudan’s dispatch of fighters to the Yemen are both linked to the Rwandan operatives from the National Intelligence war front, financed by Saudi Arabia National Congress which wants to and Security Services, has ended activists’ and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). overthrow Kagame (see page 12). hopes for an alliance with younger They both commanded units in Yemen, Commercially, the border closure officers and their troops. It was the getting to know their Saudi and Emirati has hurt Rwanda far more than protection of those troops, some of whom counterparts (AC Vol 60 No 8). Uganda. It also disrupted regional exchanged fire with NISS operatives, that trade routes from Kenya’s emboldened the activists to expand the sit MILITARY MEANS Mombasa port through Uganda in outside Alqidah al Amaah, the military Apart from military ties, there are and into Burundi and Congo- headquarters in Khartoum, after 6 April. lucrative commercial deals. It is the RSF’s Kinshasa. As current chairman of However, there are continuing reports control of gold mines in Darfur that it has the East African Community and of schisms within the ruling Transitional enabled it to build up substantial foreign an avid backer of a pan-African Military Council, arrests, detentions or exchange reserves. Business sources tell free trade zone, Kagame’s move banishments of dissident junior officers. A us that the militia has been exporting disrupted the regional economy, security source in Khartoum tells us that gold directly to Dubai, without paying as well as weakening his own when some soldiers heard of the RSF and any local taxes, and managing the foreign country’s economy. NISS plans to attack civilians at the sit in, currency earnings, running into hundreds On 10 June, Rwanda’s they were told to stay in the barracks and of millions of dollars, independently of the announcement that it would that no arms would be issued to them. central bank. reopen the border for 12 days looks Some generals, either professional This has established the RSF as a fully like an admission of defeat. Kigali cadres or adherents to the now banned funded security entity alongside the army, says it will still ban its nationals Islamist National Congress party, are said with its controlling stakes in the military from crossing into Uganda to to see the deputy leader of the junta and industrial complex, and NISS, with its protect them from harassment RSF commander, Mohammed Hamdan network of wholly owned companies by Museveni’s security agents. Dagalo, known as ‘Hemeti’, as a useful funding security and surveillance But officials in Kampala insist this figure in diverting attention from the operations, as well as building the is to stop a growing number of army’s own political plans. Their aim is personal fortunes of its top echelon. Rwandan dissidents from seeking to set up an authoritarian regime, with It is the financial, military and sanctuary. a civilian patina, modelled on President diplomatic backing from Riyadh and NIGERIA 2 CONGO-KINSHASA 4 CONGO-KINSHASA 5 SOMALIA 6 SENEGAL/OIL 7 ETHIOPIA 9 Oando chief Tshisekedi tries Missing you Washington Property of Asempa Limited takes on his foes his luck already stirs the UN pot SOUTH AFRICA 10 Management is fighting A test of the President The funeral of the grand State Department POINTERS 12 the regulator’s orders is coming up over old man of Congolese choices prompt a to quit amid threats of how the state mining politics offers a chance resurgence of anti-US fresh investigations company is run for political manoeuvres sentiment Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration unbridled backing for the junta’s support for the RSF militia, there is AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL repression could trigger a national tension between Egypt’s interests and 37 John’s Mews, London WC1N 2NS, UK conflict for which they would be held the Gulf States. Should rivalries between Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 responsible by Sudanese and the wider RSF fighters and the national army Editor: Patrick Smith region, both issued unconvincing spin out of control in Sudan, Egypt’s Deputy Editor: Andrew Weir statements urging a return to dialogue. already overstretched military would be Website Editor: Juliet Amissah A key figure is Taha Osman Al confronted with a new and unpredictable Published fortnightly since 1960 Hussein, Riyadh’s Advisor on African crisis on its southern borders. All in a 25 issues per year www.africa-confidential.com Affairs, who flew into Khartoum on state where some of el Sisi’s Islamist foes the last scheduled flight before the have put down deep roots. Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. ISSN 0044-6483 All material is copyright Africa Confidential. overthrow of el Beshir was announced Despite scheduled visits of US on 11 April. Al Hussein, a former Assistant Secretary of State for African minister in the Presidency in Khartoum, Affairs Tibor Nagy and the return of Abu Dhabi that is the most critical broke with the Sudanese regime and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, foreign support system for the junta. took Saudi citizenship. Today he is a key no date has been set for a resumption Before the massacre of 3 June, there intermediary between Hemeti, whom of negotiations over a transition to were substantial deliveries of military he knew well from the Darfur war, and civil rule. And there is no sign that hardware from the UAE across the Red Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. that the Transitional Military Council Sea to Port Sudan. Emirati-made armed In the wake of the 3 June massacre, is prepared to accept an independent personnel carriers, driven by the RSF the Gulf States’ preferred strategy investigation into the murder of over 110 militia, are now a common sight in appears to be to stretch out the people, mass rapes and the wounding of Khartoum. negotiations, making a few cosmetic over 600 on 3 June. Others say the schisms run far concessions but leaving a joint force of The incremental trade-off deeper and that the factionalised armed the RSF and the NISS to run security in announced on 11 June by Mahmoud forces are one of deposed leader Omer el Khartoum and other towns and cities. Dirir, the mediator appointed by Abiy, Beshir’s most poisonous legacies. They Their specific interests are: to was that the junta would release all see little prospect of more professional keep Sudanese troops fighting in the political prisoners and the Declaration army officers bringing either the Yemeni war; block any moves towards for Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF) RSF militia, the armed intelligences the political pluralism and democracy would suspend the civil disobedience services (with helicopters and tanks) demanded by the protesters; to push has ratcheted down tension. under control. That doesn’t rule out the back against Iranian, Turkish and But this has changed none of the possibility of a wider and more violent Qatari interests in the country; and main political and security conditions, breakdown in the security system of protect the massive Saudi and Emirati including security guarantees, the role which many outsiders have warned. land holdings in Sudan, particularly the and powers of civilians in a transitional After United States officials warned fertile Nile valley. authority, or indeed whether there will Saudi Arabia and the UAE that their In some areas, particularly over be a transition at all. l NIGERIA who controlled the oil portfolio in his first term alongside the deputy minister, Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, is due to Oando chief takes on his foes announce a new cabinet for his second term in the coming weeks. Buhari’s relations with Bola Tinubu, one of the richest men in the country The company’s management is fighting the regulator’s orders to quit with a substantial property portfolio in amid threats of fresh investigations Lagos, have been uneven, at best.