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www.africa-confidential.com 14 June 2019 - Vol 60 - N° 12

SUDAN BLUE LINES Whether the aims behind Freedom under fire President Paul Kagame’s closure of Gatuna (Ugandans call it Katuna), Rwanda’s busiest border crossing with Uganda in February, were diplomatic, commercial or As it tries to shoot down the democracy protests, the junta underplays the security, it seems to have failed deepening splits in its own ranks on all counts. Although Kagame complained at length to diplomats uch was the horror wreaked by Abdel Fattah el Sisi’s in Egypt. They want and journalists about Ugandan the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) to avoid an open election en route to that. President Yoweri Museveni’s S massacre squad on 3 June that the There is a common bond between ‘betrayal’ and his government’s tentative steps towards dialogue this week the junta leader, General Abdel Fattah alliance with oppositionists such as between the pro-democracy protesters Abdelrahman Burhan and Hemeti (AC tobacco magnate Tribert Rujugiro and the junta have been greeted with some Vol 60 No 9). After running the regime’s Ayabatwa and former chief of staff relief but low expectations in Khartoum. operations in Darfur in 2003 – Burhan of the Rwandan Army, General The inability or unwillingness of was a regional army commander and Kayumba Nyamwasa, Museveni soldiers in the Sudan Armed Forces Hemeti led the pro-regime Janjaweed has dismissed them as non- to protect civilians against murderous militia – the two men jointly coordinated issues. Rujugiro and Nyamwasa attacks by the RSF militia and armed Sudan’s dispatch of fighters to the Yemen are both linked to the Rwandan operatives from the National Intelligence war front, financed by Saudi Arabia National Congress which wants to and Security Services, has ended activists’ and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). overthrow Kagame (see page 12). hopes for an alliance with younger They both commanded units in Yemen, Commercially, the border closure officers and their troops. It was the getting to know their Saudi and Emirati has hurt Rwanda far more than protection of those troops, some of whom counterparts (AC Vol 60 No 8). Uganda. It also disrupted regional exchanged fire with NISS operatives, that trade routes from Kenya’s emboldened the activists to expand the sit MILITARY MEANS Mombasa port through Uganda in outside Alqidah al Amaah, the military Apart from military ties, there are and into Burundi and Congo- headquarters in Khartoum, after 6 April. lucrative commercial deals. It is the RSF’s Kinshasa. As current chairman of However, there are continuing reports control of gold mines in Darfur that it has the East African Community and of schisms within the ruling Transitional enabled it to build up substantial foreign an avid backer of a pan-African Military Council, arrests, detentions or exchange reserves. Business sources tell free trade zone, Kagame’s move banishments of dissident junior officers. A us that the militia has been exporting disrupted the regional economy, security source in Khartoum tells us that gold directly to Dubai, without paying as well as weakening his own when some soldiers heard of the RSF and any local taxes, and managing the foreign country’s economy. NISS plans to attack civilians at the sit in, currency earnings, running into hundreds On 10 June, Rwanda’s they were told to stay in the barracks and of millions of dollars, independently of the announcement that it would that no arms would be issued to them. central bank. reopen the border for 12 days looks Some generals, either professional This has established the RSF as a fully like an admission of defeat. Kigali cadres or adherents to the now banned funded security entity alongside the army, says it will still ban its nationals Islamist National Congress party, are said with its controlling stakes in the military from crossing into Uganda to to see the deputy leader of the junta and industrial complex, and NISS, with its protect them from harassment RSF commander, Mohammed Hamdan network of wholly owned companies by Museveni’s security agents. Dagalo, known as ‘Hemeti’, as a useful funding security and surveillance But officials in Kampala insist this figure in diverting attention from the operations, as well as building the is to stop a growing number of army’s own political plans. Their aim is personal fortunes of its top echelon. Rwandan dissidents from seeking to set up an authoritarian regime, with It is the financial, military and sanctuary. a civilian patina, modelled on President diplomatic backing from Riyadh and

NIGERIA 2 CONGO-KINSHASA 4 CONGO-KINSHASA 5 SOMALIA 6 SENEGAL/OIL 7 ETHIOPIA 9

Oando chief Tshisekedi tries Missing you Washington Property of Asempa Limited takes on his foes his luck already stirs the UN pot SOUTH AFRICA 10 Management is fighting A test of the President The funeral of the grand State Department POINTERS 12 the regulator’s orders is coming up over old man of Congolese choices prompt a to quit amid threats of how the state mining politics offers a chance resurgence of anti-US fresh investigations company is run for political manoeuvres sentiment

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unbridled backing for the junta’s support for the RSF militia, there is AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL repression could trigger a national tension between Egypt’s interests and 37 John’s Mews, London WC1N 2NS, UK conflict for which they would be held the Gulf States. Should rivalries between Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 responsible by Sudanese and the wider RSF fighters and the national army Editor: Patrick Smith region, both issued unconvincing spin out of control in Sudan, Egypt’s Deputy Editor: Andrew Weir statements urging a return to dialogue. already overstretched military would be Website Editor: Juliet Amissah A key figure isTaha Osman Al confronted with a new and unpredictable Published fortnightly since 1960 Hussein, Riyadh’s Advisor on African crisis on its southern borders. All in a 25 issues per year www.africa-confidential.com Affairs, who flew into Khartoum on state where some of el Sisi’s Islamist foes the last scheduled flight before the have put down deep roots. Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. ISSN 0044-6483 All material is copyright Africa Confidential. overthrow of el Beshir was announced Despite scheduled visits of US on 11 April. Al Hussein, a former Assistant Secretary of State for African minister in the Presidency in Khartoum, Affairs Tibor Nagy and the return of Abu Dhabi that is the most critical broke with the Sudanese regime and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, foreign support system for the junta. took Saudi citizenship. Today he is a key no date has been set for a resumption Before the massacre of 3 June, there intermediary between Hemeti, whom of negotiations over a transition to were substantial deliveries of military he knew well from the Darfur war, and civil rule. And there is no sign that hardware from the UAE across the Red Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. that the Transitional Military Council Sea to Port Sudan. Emirati-made armed In the wake of the 3 June massacre, is prepared to accept an independent personnel carriers, driven by the RSF the Gulf States’ preferred strategy investigation into the murder of over 110 militia, are now a common sight in appears to be to stretch out the people, mass rapes and the wounding of Khartoum. negotiations, making a few cosmetic over 600 on 3 June. Others say the schisms run far concessions but leaving a joint force of The incremental trade-off deeper and that the factionalised armed the RSF and the NISS to run security in announced on 11 June by Mahmoud forces are one of deposed leader Omer el Khartoum and other towns and cities. Dirir, the mediator appointed by Abiy, Beshir’s most poisonous legacies. They Their specific interests are: to was that the junta would release all see little prospect of more professional keep Sudanese troops fighting in the political prisoners and the Declaration army officers bringing either the Yemeni war; block any moves towards for Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF) RSF militia, the armed intelligences the political pluralism and democracy would suspend the civil disobedience services (with helicopters and tanks) demanded by the protesters; to push has ratcheted down tension. under control. That doesn’t rule out the back against Iranian, Turkish and But this has changed none of the possibility of a wider and more violent Qatari interests in the country; and main political and security conditions, breakdown in the security system of protect the massive Saudi and Emirati including security guarantees, the role which many outsiders have warned. land holdings in Sudan, particularly the and powers of civilians in a transitional After United States officials warned fertile Nile valley. authority, or indeed whether there will Saudi Arabia and the UAE that their In some areas, particularly over be a transition at all. l

NIGERIA who controlled the oil portfolio in his first term alongside the deputy minister, Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, is due to Oando chief takes on his foes announce a new cabinet for his second term in the coming weeks. Buhari’s relations with Bola Tinubu, one of the richest men in the country The company’s management is fighting the regulator’s orders to quit with a substantial property portfolio in amid threats of fresh investigations Lagos, have been uneven, at best. But Buhari has racked up some political reckoning is due in the battle for the political overtones of big business debts to Bola Tinubu. There is no doubt Oando, one of the country’s biggest dealings in the country. In this case, that Bola Tinubu’s political organisation Aindependent oil companies, after senior politicians in both the main and aggressive campaigning, which the market regulator barred its CEO and parties may have something to gain if prompted claims of violence and fraud his deputy from holding directorships Wale Tinubu and his deputy are forced from his opponents, helped deliver in public companies. In its ruling of out of the company. electoral victory for Buhari in Lagos 31 May, the Securities and Exchange CEO Wale is from the Tinubu state which has the highest number of Commission in Abuja attempted to aristocratic dynasty which dates back to registered voters in the country. suspend the current management of the a repentant slave trade trader in the 19th The chairman of Oando and the company and appoint a caretaker board. century, Efunroye Tinubu. A square in Alake of Egbaland, Adedotun Aremu It added that it would refer the case to the middle of the Lagos business district Gbadebo III, has his own political the Economic and Financial Crimes is named after her. antecedents. A retired army colonel, he Commission. Although former Lagos governor was Principal Staff Officer to Brigadier But CEO Adewale Tinubu and his Bola Tinubu is not a blood relative of Tunde Idiagbon, deputy to Buhari deputy Omamofe Boyo are appealing Wale’s, he identifies strongly with the during his time as military leader from against the ruling in the Federal High clan. Bola Tinubu, a political godfather in 1983 to 1985. Property of Asempa Limited Court in a case due to start on 14 June. south-west Nigeria as well as a contender If Bola Tinubu and the Alake The phrase ‘no permanent friends, just in the 2023 presidential elections, has can be relied on to back the current permanent interests’ is highly apposite in been lobbying for Wale Tinubu as the management at Oando, they face a Lagos business circles. country’s next oil minister. powerful foe in Gabriel Volpi, a major Oando’s woes are complicated by President Muhammadu Buhari, shareholder in the company and also a

2 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration former business associate of opposition presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. THREE MEN IN AN OANDO BOAT Although Volpi’s interests in Oando are commercial rather than political, Adewale Jubril Tinubu, Chief Executive Office of Oando PLC his name is still linked with Abubakar’s, Tinubu trained as a lawyer in the UK and is close to Bola Tinubu, a former governor mainly because of their common of Lagos State and now a chieftain of the governing All Progressives’ Congress. shareholding in Intels, the oil service and Adewale Tinubu led the charge to build Ocean and Oil, via its acquisition of state- logistics company. In a dispute with Wale owned Unipetrol in the government’s privatisation drive in 2000 and subsequent Tinubu and his deputy, Volpi’s Ansbury acquisition of Agip, into the country’s leading retail fuel supplier. Since then it has Investment company was awarded expanded operations into production and exploration. But Tinubu and Oando’s $680 million by the International fortunes were hit hard by the crash in oil prices in 2015 just as the company had taken Arbitration Court in London last year. on massive debt to fund ambitious expansion plans. He shares those problems with The fourth major figure in the many of those running independent oil companies in Nigeria although Tinubu had drama, Dahiru Mangal, is the hardest to a more international outlook than most. This latest battle with the SEC is the most predict. Although he hails from Katsina, serious crisis in his business career. Buhari’s state, he is said to be close to Abubakar. Mangal’s personal gripe with Gabriel Volpi, leading shareholder in Oando PLC Wale Tinubu has been settled but he’s A Nigerian-Italian businessman with a colourful history and business interests in unlikely to turn down the chance to Angola, Mozambique and South Africa as well as Nigeria. He is also a shareholder seize control of Oando should Volpi seek in Orleans Invest, owners of Intels Logistics. Another leading shareholder in Intel his support (AC Vol 59 No 16). is former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, a serial presidential contender. Volpi has Whether Wale Tinubu retains a substantial shareholding in Oando and has been trying to seize control of the control of Oando or not, the company’s company from Wale Tinubu for the past five years. image has been shredded over the past five years. In its 31 May letter, the SEC Dahiru Mangal, leading shareholder in Oando PLC accused Tinubu and Boyo of ‘serious A close friend of the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Mangal was said to be one infractions’. It quoted from a forensic of his main financial backers. He is also from Katsina State, home state of Yar’Adua audit by Deloitte & Touche referring and President Muhammadu Buhari. Mangal’s relations with Buhari are ambiguous. to ‘false disclosures, market abuses, His interests in cross-border trade – particularly importing rice and sugar from Niger misstatements in financial statements and Chad, is said to have been badly hit by the Buhari government’s ban on those and corporate governance lapses imports and attempts to boost local production. Mangal owns Max Air, Persoil SA, stemming from poor board oversight’. an oil company in Niger and many fuel stations in Burkina Faso and Niger. Wale Tinubu’s management team Over the years he has befriended Wale and Bola Tinubu and is a leading rejected the critique as ‘unsubstantiated’ shareholder in Oando Plc. His network includes president of Niger Republic, and ‘invalid’ and said it hadn’t seen the Mahamadou Issoufou. Mangal wrote the petition that launched the Securities & Deloitte & Touche report. However, Exchange Commission investigation into Oando. l Oando’s own auditors, Ernest & Young raised concerns in April about the company’s continued financial viability. Exploration & Production Company) enabled Oando Plc to declare dividends.’ Its main burden is the $2.5 billion debt enabled Oando Plc to report a profit Since the SEC’s letter, two of Oando’s it took on when it bought some oil instead of a loss, thereby misstating its non-executive directors have resigned. and gas assets in Nigeria from Conoco Financial Statements in 2013 and 2014 Hostilities started two years ago when Phillips. The SEC letter added that: and consequently misleading investors. Volpi and Mangal tried to get Tinubu and ‘The purported sale of OEPL (Oando This ‘fictitious’ profit reported in 2013, Boyo sacked from the board, petitioning

PARLIAMENT TOES THE LINE

On the eve of Nigeria’s Democracy Day (June 12), its newly inaugurated National Assembly elected its principal officers without much ado or drama, unlike four years ago when some members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) outwitted the party and the presidency. This time, party favourites Ahmed Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila were elected senate president and house of representatives’ speaker respectively. With their deputies also vetted by the APC hierarchy, all is now set for a docile parliament that will in all likelihood do the bidding of the executive arm of government, unlike their predecessors. Outgoing Senate President Bukola Saraki and Speaker Yakubu Dogara, who both crossed over to the opposition halfway into their tenure, were at constant loggerheads with the APC leadership and President Muhammadu Buhari, who tried but failed to remove them. Saraki failed in his bid for re-election but Dogara returns to take a seat on the bench (AC Vol 60 No 5). Desperation for a more malleable parliament to pass government bills faster led to several failed plots to unseat Saraki, who survived Code of Conduct Bureau trials on asset declaration charges,and Dogara, even before they joined the People’s Democratic Party. Last August, the State Security Service laid siege to the National Assembly complex, leading to Vice- President Yomi Osinbajo giving secret police chief Lawal Musa Daura the boot (AC Vol 59 No 16). New speaker Gbajabiamila, a protégé of APC national leader Bola Tinubu, managed to stave off opposition to his election, including civil society lawsuits about his 2003 suspension from practising law by the Supreme Court of Georgia

in the United States. As a young lawyer, he had won a $25,000 injury settlement for his client but failed to remit the funds, Property of Asempa Limited travelling instead to Nigeria to use the money to fund his election as a federal lawmaker that same year. Gbajabiamila returned the money a few years ago. Also elected was Ovie Omo-Agege, who made the headlines when he led thugs to steal the senate mace in April 2018. The new Deputy President of the senate was also reportedly convicted for forgery by a California court back in 1996. l

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SEC about the company’s violations and forensic audit. Oando says that due associations with the opposition People’s manipulations of financial statements. process was not followed. Now months Democratic Party, could end up with Last October, the Nigerian Stock of legal argument could lie ahead as the joint control over a formidable range of Exchange suspended Oando’s shares protagonists battle it out in court. upstream and downstream assets in the for five months, following a directive The two men with most to gain, country’s oil and gas sector (AC Vol 60 from the SEC which then launched its Volpi and Mangal, both with strong No 5). l

CONGO-KINSHASA Congo-K’s state-owned companies. Yuma accumulated immense control over Gécamines in 2014 when he Tshisekedi tries his luck emerged victorious from a boardroom battle with then-Director General Ahmed Kalej Nkand, who was sacked A test of the President’s ability to challenge Kabila’s influence is by Kabila. Nkand’s replacement, coming up over how the state mining company is run Jacques Kamenga Tshimuanga, got the job on an interim basis and never had his predecessor’s power. He was resident Félix Tshisekedi’s taxes and removed a clause that would only Yuma’s ‘errand boy’ for the past decision to reappoint have protected them from complying five years, one presidential advisor told P Albert Yuma Mulimbi – one of with the fiscal changes until 2028. Africa Confidential. ex-President Joseph Kabila’s closest After many complaints and threats, the Gécamines’ new Director General is allies – as head of Congo-Kinshasa’s companies are paying the revised rates Sama Lukonde Kyenge, a former sports largest state-owned mining company while declaring they haven’t abandoned minister under Kabila who is close to has raised eyebrows as well as hackles. the possibility of launching arbitration Dany Banza, one of the most influential For many, Yuma’s continuation as proceedings if aspects of the law aren’t Katangans in Tshisekedi’s entourage, the president of the Gécamines board softened (AC Vol 60 No 5). who has been named the President’s after nine controversial years is proof The chief executives of Glencore and ‘roving ambassador’. Tshisekedi’s team of the enduring influence of Joseph Barrick – Ivan Glasenberg and Mark believes Yuma can be reined in by Kabila, who was succeeded by former Bristow – met Tshisekedi and his chief Lukonde and the other seven handpicked opposition leader Tshisekedi in January. of staff Vital Kamerhe in Kinshasa to try members of the board, marking an end Martin Fayulu, the rival opposition to push for changes to the mining code. to his freewheeling days. candidate who leaked voting data Copper and cobalt producers are Yuma couldn’t be removed, say the indicates was in reality the comfortable equally hostile to Yuma’s crusade to President’s people, because Tshisekedi winner, is still calling – without much renegotiate all of Gécamines’ joint had already rejected him as Kabila’s luck – for the Congolese to emulate the ventures. Last year, he successfully first choice as prime minister. ‘We don’t Algerians and Sudanese in rising up to brought Glencore and Eurasian want to humiliate our partners and defend democracy (AC Vol 60 No 6). Resources Group to the table to discuss Yuma counts a lot for Kabila,’ one said. Yuma’s leadership of Gécamines, the former’s Kamoto Copper Company ‘This is not a revolution.’ today a mere husk of the company that (KCC) and the latter’s Boss Mining. The head of government must come produced more than 400,000 tonnes of Yuma secured billions of dollars of from the parliamentary majority, which copper per year in the Katanga region in forgiven intra-company debt and is controlled by Kabila. While the ex- its 1980s heyday, has been blighted by hundreds of millions in payments to head of state’s handpicked replacement reports of mismanagement. Hundreds Gécamines. performed dismally in the presidential of millions of dollars of ‘tax advances’ contest, his Front Commun pour le Congo have been sent from the miner to central FUND RELATIONS (FCC) secured hefty majorities in the bank-controlled accounts at commercial The International Monetary Fund National Assembly, Senate and the banks, rather than to tax authorities, will not be welcoming Yuma’s provincial assemblies. (Fayulu claims after which the trail goes cold. Yuma stay either. The Fund cancelled a most successful parliamentarians were says the payments have allowed the $532 million loan programme midway ‘nominated’ by the pliable agency state to meet its urgent needs but there through 2012 after the government that organised the polls rather than are suspicions that cash was diverted to failed to publish the terms of an asset elected.) In the absence of much choice, slush funds controlled by Kabila. Yuma sale by Gécamines and Kabila stopped Tshisekedi agreed to govern in coalition happens to also chair the central bank’s it conducting its routine annual with the FCC and their respective teams audit committee. monitoring missions during his final are still negotiating the makeup of the The respected Observatoire de la three years in power. Tshisekedi says next government. dépense publique (Public Expenditure he wants to normalise relations with There are therefore serious doubts Observatory – ODP) pleaded with the IMF, but he revealed Gécamines’ Yuma will be curbed, especially as Tshisekedi to cancel the decision, new board while the Fund’s team was Lukonde is unversed in Gécamines’ dark arguing that the Gécamines boss ‘has still in the country, which will not have arts, but even if he is brought to heel excelled in unprecedented financial encouraged the multilateral lender. it’s unlikely Glasenberg and Bristow scandal depriving the public treasury of The IMF would like Congo-Kinshasa will get their way. Tshisekedi promised enormous receipts’. to ‘consolidate various mining revenue in March to retain Kabila’s legislative

International mining companies streams into the Treasury’, it said reforms, and two presidential advisors Property of Asempa Limited such as Glencore, Barrick Gold and as its officials boarded the plane for confirmed as much to Africa Confidential. China Molybdenum were also eager Washington. ‘The mining code is popular and the to see the back of Yuma. They blame Tshisekedi’s advisers intend for companies are paying,’ said one. him for forcing through laws last year Yuma’s post to be largely ‘symbolic’, An equally embarrassing hangover which hiked royalties, introduced new as is the case for other presidents of from the Kabila years is Dan Gertler,

4 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration the Israeli billionaire who partnered ‘financial and operational’ viability. much muscle-flexing, given Kabila’s with Glencore and ERG in their Ilunga confirmed his lack of domination of elected institutions and Congolese mines. The US Treasury authority last week when he admitted the military, can Tshisekedi indulge in sanctioned him in late 2017 for having to the local media that he isn’t involved before the FCC bites back, they ask. used his friendship with Kabila to in the talks which will select the Tshisekedi and Kamerhe have make a fortune through corrupt administration he’ll nominally lead. accepted that, controlling only 10% of mining and oil deals. Some of Gertler’s He’s simply waiting to be presented parliament, they will have less than half contentious transactions have involved with his ministers. of the ministerial posts. However, they Gécamines and therefore Yuma – such The furious reaction of the FCC to baulk at the demands of FCC hardliners as the acquisition of a lucrative revenue the announcement of Gécamines’ new such as Jean-Pierre Kambila, Kabila’s stream originally due to the state miner board indicates that Kabila’s allies do former deputy chief of staff, who say from Glencore’s KCC. Gertler’s future see it as a threat, even though Yuma they must settle for only 20% of the in Congo-K seems unclear with his pal remains in place. The FCC is fuming portfolios. The President will tolerate Kabila out of office and Tshisekedi’s that Tshisekedi’s appointment of the 30-40% of positions but the real fight team appears uncertain how to deal new Gécamines directors was co-signed will concern the big jobs such as finance, with him (AC Vol 58 No 5). While by outgoing Prime Minister Bruno defence, justice and interior. Tshisekedi radical action against Gertler is highly Tshibala who had already handed in his still believes he can obtain them all, unlikely on account of his relationship resignation or Kamerhe (depending on one source says, although the FCC chief with Kabila, one Tshisekedi ally said, whom one believes). They say he acted Nehemie Mwilanya, Kabila’s ex-chief of ‘his time as the King of Katanga is over’. unconstitutionally in publishing the staff, has different ideas. Tshisekedi insisted that the prime directive without the co-endorsement ‘Nehemie and his band don’t minister he was obliged to pick from of the new prime minister. If Tshisekedi understand that the wind has changed’, the ranks of Kabila’s FCC should be had waited for the investiture of Ilunga says a Tshisekedi confidant – probably a technocrat untainted by corruption and the new government they would over-optimistically. allegations during the former have had more influence over the The return of Moïse Katumbi president’s era. On 20 May he named composition of the board. to a hero’s welcome in the mining septuagenarian university professor city of Lubumbashi on 20 May after Sylvestre Ilunga Ilunkamba to the OVER-REACH a three-year absence is also shaking post but it is not an inspired choice if With Kabila’s negotiators walking up Congolese politics (AC Vol 60 No Ilunga’s six-year tenure from 2013 as the out of talks on the formation of the 11). The wealthy former governor of Director General of the national railway coalition government, Tshisekedi Katanga supported Tshisekedi during the Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer and Kabila – who are said to much of his exile but ended up backing du Congo (SNCC) is a fair guide. get on well personally – met on Fayulu along with Jean-Pierre Bemba, The World Bank spent about $400m 9 June to smooth the way for talks to a former vice-president and rebel leader. in recent years on a disastrous project resume. But it’s possible that Tshisekedi Those around Tshisekedi worry to revitalise the moribund parastatal, and his supporters are guilty of over- less about Katumbi pushing Fayulu’s according to an independent audit reach. Analysts are asking whether claim and more about him pushing his published last month. The report Lukonde and his team will really be own bid for the presidency in 2023. concluded that the SNCC is bankrupt, able to control Yuma, whether they ‘He’s already campaigning,’ one said. suffers from ‘poor management will be shouldered aside instead, or Tshisekedi and Kabila have a shared practices’, and is even further from whether they will be co-opted. How interest in squashing it. l

CONGO-KINSHASA Lourenço and Congo-Brazzaville President Denis Sassou Nguesso, Missing you already which was five more than attended the inauguration of Tshisekedi’s son, Félix Tshisekedi, as President in January. Intriguingly, Sassou was the only one The grand old man of Congolese politics gets a state send-off, and among them invited back afterwards to the funeral offers a chance for political manoeuvres Félix Tshisekedi’s private residence in N’Sele, outside the capital, for a much smaller ceremony for his father’s burial wo years and four months after in the National Order of National on the evening of 1 June. the old man passed away, the body Heroes, joining the likes of Augustin T of veteran Congolese politician Katumba Mwanke, Yerodia Abdoulaye NO-SHOWS Étienne Tshisekedi finally returned Ndombasi and Antoine Gizenga. So Among the main no-shows at the funeral from Brussels to Congo-Kinshasa on far, only Laurent Désiré Kabila and was former President Joseph Kabila, 30 May. Thousands lined the streets Patrice-Émery Lumumba have been who sent his brother Zoé Kabila, the as Tshisekedi’s coffin was driven from designated as national heroes, but new governor of Tanganyika province, N’Djili airport into Kinshasa, and presidential spokespeople have been to represent the family. Also missing thousands more filled the capital’sStade briefing, perhaps optimistically, that was Moïse Katumbi, who returned des Martyrs, where the coffin lay in Tshisekedi may yet also be given this to Belgium earlier in the month after state on 31 May and 1 June under an honour. his plane was allegedly twice refused Property of Asempa Limited elaborate awning featuring a 10-metre, Tshisekedi’s official state funeral on permission to land in Goma, intended gold-coloured forearm and hand, two 1 June was notable for who was there as the next leg of a planned tour of the long fingers raised in a victory salute. – and who was not. Six heads of state country (AC Vol 60 No 11). Katumbi has The late Tshisekedi has been attended, including Rwandan President not given up on his tour yet, though. On awarded the rank of ‘grand cordon’ Paul Kagame, Angolan President João 10 June, Katumbi’s ‘cabinet’ published

Africa Confidential • 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 5 Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration the programme for his safari, which will 6 June, Fayulu said he would be at the a firm stance against militants of take in eight towns and cities. airport to welcome back Jean-Pierre Tshisekedi’s Union pour la Démocratie Another absentee was Martin Bemba, who is currently scheduled to et le Progrès Social, who on 10 June Fayulu, the man who the evidence return for his own grand tour on 23 gathered to attempt to storm the suggests won the presidential poll last June. Fayulu said Bemba’s Mouvement National Assembly in Kinshasa. The December (AC Vol 60 No 1). A Fayulu de libération du Congo (MLC) party was militants said they wanted to protest spokesperson later blamed his absence still talking to him but that Katumbi’s the blocking tactics of Front Commun on ‘security and protocol’, apparently Ensemble coalition was no longer doing pour le Congo (FCC) MPs, which they alluding to opposition to Fayulu playing so. Katumbi’s decision to recognise claim are preventing Tshisekedi from a role in proceedings from the funeral’s Tshisekedi’s presidency and to position deploying UDPS loyalists to positions in steering committee. himself as the ‘republican’ opposition state-owned enterprises. UPDS activists That committee also snubbed the has put him on course for a split with gathered outside the Haut Katanga Église du Christ au Congo (ECC), which Fayulu. Bemba has thus far remained provincial assembly in Lubumbashi on groups together a large number of silent on the issue. the same day, burning tyres, calling Protestant churches and is reckoned So far, the Congolese authorities for Kabila’s arrest and demanding, as to be the second-largest denomination have mostly let Fayulu continue to Fayulu does, that Tshisekedi ‘divorce’ in Congo-K after the Roman Catholic press his case, though in late April Kabila. church. Étienne Tshisekedi was a devout he was accused of ‘inspiring hatred Having ceded majorities in the Catholic but the President periodically and genocide’ against Luba people National Assembly and the provincial attends a church that is a member of (Tshisekedi is a Luba), and was formally assemblies, and almost all the provincial the ECC. Fayulu has been seeking to requested to go to Kinshasa’s inspector of governorships to Kabila’s FCC, with win the ECC’s support for his claim to police on 6 May to answer to the charge. all the money and employment the presidency, which he continues to There were rising tensions in the capital opportunities that come with them, press, and met with the ECC’s senior in the days approaching the date, and Tshisekedi needs to deliver some representative André Bokundoa-Bo- a promise from Fayulu’s militants that patronage from elsewhere to the UDPS. Likabe in late February. Eager not to they would accompany their man to the If Tshisekedi is unable even to do that alienate the ECC, we hear, the President police in numbers. Finally, just before in the state-owned enterprises, which also met with Bokundoa-Bo-Likabe on the deadline, the inspector’s request to have traditionally been a presidential 11 June. Fayulu was indefinitely suspended. fief, the days of his base remaining loyal Addressing students in Kinshasa on The police have, however, taken could be numbered. l

SOMALIA him and ensure victory for Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed ‘Lafta Gareen’ (Rahanweyn/Xarin). Lafta Gareen’s Washington stirs the UN pot mother belongs to the same clan as Farmajo (Darod/Marehan). Appalled at Farmajo’s high-handedness, the United State Department choices prompt a resurgence of anti-US sentiment Kingdom and Germany suspended as oil goes up for grabs their security sector assistance. The US government, meanwhile, bankrolled the state election and then deepened its he nomination on 30 May of the government showcased, albeit relationship with Lafta Gareen. United States diplomat James unsuccessfully, at a London licensing T Swan as the UN Secretary- roadshow in February. The state also DIPLOMATIC CASUALTY General’s Special Representative in hosts Baledogle Airfield, an important One of the main casualties of the Robow Somalia has deepened divisions within and expanding base for US military affair was the UN’s top representative at the country’s political class, amid operations against Al Shabaab (AC the time, Nicholas Haysom. The South accusations that Washington forced Vol 59 No 22). British officials have African was not alone in seeing Robow through his selection to protect US appealed to Yamamoto to share the as a potential bridge to Al Shabaab, influence over oil-rich ground. ex-Soviet military base of Baledogle, or at least as a politician who could Swan, a veteran US State which has a 3.2 kilometre runway, but counteract its appeal. Many believed UN Department career officer who served the request has been rebuffed, security Secretary-General António Guterres as ambassador in Djibouti, Somalia sources say. did not do enough to defend Haysom and Congo-Kinshasa during Barack Late last year Baidoa, the capital against Farmajo’s ire. Obama’s presidency, has been pushed of South West State, was the centre of David Concar, the UK ambassador forward by Donald Yamamoto, the a brutal political dispute after federal to Somalia, was believed to be close to current US ambassador in Mogadishu government forces violently suppressed Robow. Despite the presence of many and a mentor of Swan’s, diplomats and protests following Ethiopian troops’ Islamists, even Salafists, in mainstream UN insiders told Africa Confidential. arrest of Mukhtar Robow Ali ‘Abu politics and the current government, Yamamoto also served under Presidents Mansur’ (Rahanweyn/Leysan clan), rapprochement with former Shabaab George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, an Al Shabaab founder and long-time leaders remains anathema to Farmajo including stints as ambassador to Baidoa area commander until his and controversial in general. The

Djibouti and Ethiopia. defection to the government in 2017 prominent British-Somali journalist Property of Asempa Limited Yamamoto has developed political (AC Vol 60 No 2). Robow was tipped Rageh Omaar, international affairs alliances on one side of the political to win the state’s presidential election editor of Britain’s ITV News, condemned fence in South West State, which may until Federal President Mohamed Concar’s meeting last year with Robow. hold some of the richest oil deposits Abdullah Mohamed ‘Farmajo’ Haysom’s two predecessors, of all the acreage that the Mogadishu ordered Ethiopian troops to detain Nicholas Kay and Michael Keating,

6 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration are both British. During their tenure in the Puntland capital, Garowe. He meeting, however, the US intervened between 2013 and 2018, London was pressured Farmajo and Khaire to attend aggressively, pressuring Guterres in the penholder on Somalia at the UN the meeting just as tensions between New York and the Somali President Security Council as the UK government Mogadishu and the states were reaching and Prime Minister in Mogadishu, we invested heavily in its development. fever pitch, Somali and UN officials hear from diplomatic sources. Regional Yamamoto has attempted to cultivate told Africa Confidential. Predictably, governments, including Kenya, close contacts with Prime Minister the talks collapsed, with Puntland and appealed to the Secretary General, Hassan Ali Khaire and with officials in Galmudug formally cutting ties with the warning against the implications of the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Mogadishu government by the end of appointing a US national to lead the UN Resources, notably the Minister, the month. Jubaland issued a statement in Somalia. Abdirashid Mohamed Ahmed. The of blame but stopped short of closing Nairobi is also nervous after the ministry has been partly responsible the door on relations. leak of a document from Somalia’s for developing Somalia’s controversial Petroleum Ministry showed that five petroleum bill, which was passed into SOURING MOOD oil blocks it aims to license to bidders law and is described as unconstitutional Amid the meltdown, the five-month may in fact be in Kenyan waters. We by many Somalis occupying positions of delay to replace Haysom took a toll on hear that US diplomats have also been power in federal member states. Khaire political stability in Somalia, and on promoting the idea of deploying the was once an executive at Soma Oil the standing of the UN. The collapse of Ethiopian and Eritrean military to and Gas, the British company chaired the Garowe talks also left a bad taste Jubaland to replace Kenyan forces who, by British Conservative party grandee in the mouth of Farmajo and Khaire, despite being present since 2011, have Lord Michael Howard and which in who see Yamamoto’s alliances in South failed to adequately take on Al Shabaab 2013 gained licences to prospect 60,000 West State and with individuals in (AC Vol 60 Nos 4 & 10). square kilometres of acreage. the Petroleum Ministry as no guarantee As premature leaks of Swan’s At the same time, Yamamoto has that he will also protect Mogadishu’s appointment spread through Somali- exacerbated divisions on a number of interests. With the mood souring speaking Voice of America journalists, other fronts. With his opposition to against him, overall Somali opposition interest groups began to react. Robow’s Robow, he has alienated the Leysan to Swan’s nomination appeared to political party issued a press release sub-clan in Baidoa. By being perceived be gathering pace, just as within the warning that Swan would not be to have allied US diplomatic interests UN system resentment was building welcome in South West State. The to Bantus he has incurred the ire of the against the Somali government, and Hawiye elders in Benadir published largest clan, the Hawiye, who perceive with it an ill-judged call for punitive a statement warning against the their important sub-clans in Lower measures and a show of strength appointment, evoking the last time the Shabelle, the Abgal and Habr Gidir, against Mogadishu. Hawiye confronted a US-led United to be under threat. In neighbouring In the initial stages of recruiting Nations, in the Black Hawk Down era of Jubaland, where elections are due Haysom’s replacement, the field of the early 1990s. in August, the majority Ogaden and candidates was crowded with ill- By the third week of May and Marehan clans see Yamamoto forging qualified national diplomats with after the Garowe debacle, the Somali an alliance with the minority Bantu and no knowledge of Somalia or the UN. government attempted to delay Swan’s Bimal against them. Diplomatic sources Central to the race were candidates appointment process by calling for say meanwhile that Farmajo is pushing from three countries: the US, Canada consultations, only to hear that he his favoured candidate, Aviation and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. By early had already been chosen, against Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Salad last month, it looked as if an alternative their wishes. In early June, the federal Omar, to take on Jubaland President candidate from Canada – Jarat Chopra, government issued a statement Ahmed Mohamed Islaan ‘Madobe’ in with decades of UN and Somalia welcoming the Security Council’s the elections. experience – also had the backing of renewal of the mandate for the African Yamamoto was one of the key a number of member states, including Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), backers of last month’s talks between Somalia. but remaining silent about the new UN the federal government and the states The week after the Garowe Special Representative. l

SENEGAL/OIL wrongdoing, Africa Confidential can reveal an earlier finding by an official Senegalese investigation which queried An oily threat to Sall Timis’s relationships at the top level in Dakar but was suppressed. In 2014, ex-President Abdoulaye Wade accused President Sall’s brother of Hotly-denied suggestions that officials were paid for awarding oil ‘owning 30% of Senegal’s oil’ with Timis, concessions are causing trouble for the President and Africa Confidential then reported that the deal was under scrutiny by the United ver since BBC television’s Panorama alleged that Timis’s Senegal company States Federal Bureau of Investigation current affairs programme Petro-Tim’s employment of Aliou Sall (AC Vol 56 No 18). We also reported revealed apparent evidence that was likely to have influenced the award news of high-stakes negotiations by the

E Property of Asempa Limited controversial British-based Australian/ of the St. Louis Profond and Cayar US oil company Kosmos Energy and Romanian businessman Vasily Frank Profond offshore oil blocks to Petro- Britain’s BP with Timis to gain control Timis made massive payments to Tim. They have now been sold off to of the gas fields, which are now known President Macky Sall’s brother Aliou BP and Kosmos Energy in a bonanza to be vast and could well transform the Sall, the political scene in Senegal payday for Timis. Senegalese economy (AC Vol 58 Nos 7 has been in turmoil. The programme Although all the parties deny any & 10).

Africa Confidential • 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 7 Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration

Yet, any evidence was lacking until company Petrosen, which Tullow, the hadn’t got the information that the BBC the BBC’s Panorama revealed secret UK-Irish oil firm also then in talks with has... We knew there was a conflict of accounts detailing payments from Timis the Senegalese government over the interest, now we know what was behind to Aliou Sall of $250,000 plus a salary of concessions, refused to pay. it. Timis should never have existed in $25,000 a month. The BBC says that BP Senegal’s 1998 oil law was designed Senegalese oil.’ will pay Kosmos and Timis, in return for to attract investors into extensive The allegations have prompted a their 30% stake in the gas fields, up to exploration – no significant gas or oil flurry of comments from other members $10 billion over 40 years. discoveries had yet been made – and of the Dakar elite named in connection All of the parties involved deny it prohibited the payment of signature with the business, including millionaire any wrongdoing. Aliou Sall says he is bonuses. This would make the architect and former presidential suing for libel, while Timis’s lawyers payments to Petrosen illegal. There was candidate Pierre Goudiaby Atépa, who in London, Schillings, have described no investigation or prosecution. introduced Timis to Aliou Sall in China the BBC’s allegations as ‘entirely false’ Tullow has been held up to the when Sall was a diplomat there (AC and defended Timis’s handling of an oil Senegalese public as something of a Vol 59 No 23). Speaking to local press concession that ‘now has the potential villain by Sall’s supporters. During the from Paris, Atépa defended Aliou Sall, to generate many billions of dollars recent presidential election campaign, calling him an ‘excellent commercial revenue for the people of Senegal and pro-Sall propagandists falsely agent’ and said that he had not received provide gas to generate power which accused Tullow of offering opposition ‘a cent’ from Timis. can be supplied across the whole of presidential candidate Ousmane Sonko The high-profile nature of the West Africa, to the benefit of many cash in exchange for oil concessions Petro-Tim controversy in Dakar and millions more people’. President Sall in the event of his election (AC Vol its dominance of headlines throughout was contacted but had not replied as 60 No 4). After the BBC broadcast its Sall’s Presidency raise questions about Africa Confidential went to press. revelations, defenders of the President the rigour of BP’s compliance regime. The Senegalese public, primed by accused Tullow of being behind the BP claims that it conducted ‘extensive a drip of allegations and opposition story, and of creating ‘fake news’. and appropriate due diligence’ before claims about corruption in the oil deciding to do business with Kosmos sector, thinks differently, however, and BROTHERS UNDER FIRE and Timis. the President is facing the most serious This is not the first time Aliou Sall’s BP said that the $9-12bn which the challenge to his credibility in either his association with Timis has caused BBC said the major could pay Timis first or second term of office, which only embarrassment for the presidency. After in royalties for the Senegal gas fields began in February. reports emerged in 2016 accusing Aliou was ‘exaggerated beyond the realm A new group of opposition Sall of taking payments from Timis, he of reality’, adding that any payments organisations called the Conference of resigned from Petro-Tim, but kept his would come out of BP’s share of the Leaders called for the public prosecutor job as mayor of the Dakar suburb of investment, and not at Senegal’s in Dakar to bring the allegations to Guédiawaye. expense. Senegal’s High Court, demanding a full Sall added that his brother had US oil company Kosmos has been in investigation. ratified Petro-Tim’s concession ‘as part the firing line for the methods it uses to of the continuity of the state’ and that he gain access to lucrative assets in West EARLIER CONCERNS was ready to respond to any commission Africa in the past. In 2010, Ghanaian and Africa Confidential has seen a 2012 of inquiry or international tribunal that US authorities opened an investigation report – secret until now – that President requested it. Regarding allegations over into how Texas-based Kosmos and its Sall commissioned to probe Timis’s a $25,000 a month salary he received local partner EO secured control of the activities before he came to office. The for his role at PetroTim, Sall said: ‘Like Jubilee oil field, Africa’s biggest offshore report told the new President that Petro- any worker, I have negotiated a firm oil project (AC Vol 50 No 21). After five Tim should never have been awarded contract, but my salary is not illegal or years, the investigations were dropped, the gas fields in the first place. The unusual in the oil and gas sector. Some with Kosmos and their partners report by the Inspection Générale d’Etat of my colleagues were receiving much claiming their innocence. (IGE) found that Petro-Tim did not even more than I was.’ Kosmos said in a statement that it exist at the time it was allocated the Reports emerged in Dakar on ‘strongly refutes any implication that concessions and recommended that its Sunday suggesting that President Sall, it acted improperly in the acquisition licence be cancelled. who has so far remained tight-lipped of interests in Senegal.’ Regarding Insiders believe that President about the BBC’s allegations, is under allegations that Kosmos made a cash Wade’s energy minister and son Karim pressure to remove his brother from the loan to Timis, the US oil firm said that Wade made the original deals with head of the state-run savings deposit it entered into a credit line with Timis Timis for exploring the offshore blocks, bank he heads, the CDC, and relieve Corporation for the ‘sole purpose of and that when Wade lost office, Timis him of his mayoral duties. funding exploration costs’. had to make new deals with President President Sall’s background as a No money changed hands between Sall and his brother. This could help geological engineer, and his time as Kosmos and Timis. They pro-rated costs explain why the IGE report was never special adviser for energy and mines to in exchange for his 30% share in the published. One of its chief findings President Wade and as director-general operations. This is the holding which was that Petro-Tim, a Cayman Islands of Petrosen, will make it difficult for him Timis used as collateral against an iron- company, was only incorporated two to shrug off renewed criticism over the ore off-take deal in Sierra Leone with days after the concessions were granted. initial deal signed with Petro-Tim and trader Gerald Metals (AC Vol 57 No 24).

The IGE report also warned that say he was not aware of the potential Property of Asempa Limited Petro-Tim clearly did not have the value of the deal. TIMIS THE PIONEER capital to fund the drilling programme Former opposition candidate Sonko, Within African resources circles, Timis it had signed up to. The report added who wrote a book about the controversy is widely known for his failed Sierra that Petro-Tim paid $1.5 million in surrounding Senegal’s nascent energy Leonean mining ventures African signing bonuses to Senegal’s state oil boom in 2016, said: ‘At the time, I Minerals and Regal Petroleum. In

8 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration

2009, Timis’s Greece-focused oil built up his West African empire, with Senegal operations. Most recently Timis exploration firm Regal Petroleum was operations at one point in Liberia, moved into the virtual mining space and fined £600,000 by the London Stock Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal made headlines in the UK for emerging Exchange’s junior market AIM for failing and Burkina Faso. After the collapse as the largest shareholder of Bitcoin to inform investors that drilling results of African Minerals in 2014 and the mining venture, Argo Blockchain. from its well revealed an absence of oil. stripping of the mining licence at This article was developed with Shareholders in Regal lost millions. Tambao in Burkina Faso, Timis focused the support of the Money Trail project After the collapse of Regal, Timis his energies on his increasingly lucrative (www.money-trail.org). l

ETHIOPIA place in early April. Unruly Amhara police seem to have intervened in a local Seeds of instruction dispute in the Oromia Zone of Amhara where they met stiff resistance from local militiamen. The ensuing violence, which killed dozens, spread into the Premier Abiy Ahmed’s focus on a democratic transition faces heavy adjacent North Shewa Zone. challenges as the ruling coalition struggles to rein in conflict Meanwhile, in Oromia itself, progress was made in Addis Ababa in late May as the recently returned ith preparations for landmark “moral of duty” versus “moral of Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) leader elections less than a year away aspiration”, he emphasised that Dawud Ibsa confirmed that he no W and behind schedule, with the maintaining the rule of law cannot only longer commanded an armed force. country trapped in a security crisis and be based on the former but through However, that is primarily because an ethnic group threatening to declare investments in nurturing moral of his commanders have disowned him the federation’s first new regional state, aspiration,’ Fana gnomically reported and vowed to continue armed struggle Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed after Abiy lectured Ethiopian judges. without him. has a lot on his plate. ‘He concluded the discussion session But still he has found the time by planting seedlings together with ELECTION HOPE to plant tree seedlings, discuss his members of the justice sector and calling Abiy’s plan is for an international- pet project to beautify Addis Ababa’s upon them to spend the upcoming rainy standard election next year to re- riversides, visit a children’s cancer season cleaning, cleansing and planting.’ legitimise a government that has hospital, and encourage schoolchildren Meanwhile, the seeds of Ethiopia’s been buffeted by years of protests (AC Vol 60 No 5). ‘He advised the political crisis planted decades ago are and internal wrangling. This would, students to undertake the examinations germinating. theoretically, allow it to reassert control in a relaxed and focused manner,’ the There is stiff competition for the over security and progress with its ruling-party-linked Fana Broadcasting title but the primary challenge is reform agenda, eventually including Corporation reported in a series of arguably the rise over the past year the constitution. However, Ethiopia’s dispatches by one of Ethiopia’s newly of the National Movement of Amhara structural problems are too deep for a liberated media. (NaMA), which says that community mere election to solve. The crisis Abiy To be fair to Abiy, he also took a trip lost out when the federation was carved inherited has worsened partly because in late May to the West Guji Zone of into ethno-regional units in the early of his disdain for the ruling coalition Oromia, where officials have been busy 1990s, primarily at the behest of the he leads, and which has governed the corralling ethnic Gedeo into returning Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). country by hook or by crook since 1991, to their homes after about 700,000 were That means the Amhara want ‘their’ the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary chased out by their Guji neighbours last land back, which is causing friction with Democratic Front (EPRDF). year. A recent campaign resulted in more neighbouring groups, notably Tigrayans That squabbling front is in disarray than one million internally displaced and Gumuz (AC Vol 60 No 3). Although and so the multinational federation Ethiopians going home, not long after the former dispute has only simmered it built is coming apart at the seams. the news that the 2.9 million Ethiopians this year, the latter recently exploded. After last year’s humiliation, the TPLF uprooted by conflict in 2018 represent Perhaps as many as 200 Gumuz were has marginalised itself, content to pull the highest figure for internal refugees killed in Jawi Woreda of the Amhara up the drawbridge and snipe at Abiy’s anywhere in the world. Aid officials Region in early May when villages were sermons. One result is that the Eritrean complain that the rushed government razed. That looked like retaliation for peace process appears to have stalled response – after months of ignoring the killings of several Amharas in the (AC Vol 59 No 14). Abiy’s stated de- the problem – seemed more focused on Metekel Zone of Benishangul-Gumuz, ethnicising scheme is to convert the presentation than rehabilitation. a neighbouring district to which NaMA EPRDF into a national party, rather and elements of Amhara’s ruling party than an alliance of four regional CAUSE FOR CONCERN lay claim. organisations, including adding ruling It is the presentational focus of Abiy’s NaMA activists blamed Oromo elites from five non-EPRDF-run regions. otherwise promising premiership that is agitators for the Jawi carnage but there Alternatively, the Front may split as the causing concern in many quarters. He was no evidence to back that up. The TPLF baulks at these plans. Abiy could has set inspiring democratic objectives group rejects claims that the Amhara then try to cobble together a more liberal that will take years to reach, if Ethiopia were a repressed minority in Ethiopia’s national coalition from the fragments. Property of Asempa Limited can get there at all. With the course set imperial era and casts Amhara local However, one major problem is time, or for the Promised Land, the powerful minorities as victims of discrimination the lack of it. leader seems more comfortable acting instead. Fanfare greeted the appointment of as civic educator than Prime Minister. But it was in an Oromo enclave of the former political prisoner Birtukan ‘Drawing a distinction between Amhara that more worrying events took Mideksa, a nemesis of the late Prime

Africa Confidential • 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 9 Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration

Minister Meles Zenawi, as the head of Gedeo, and next door, the Sidama Zone’s capital that Sidamas claim as their own. Ethiopia’s electoral board in November, leaders revitalised a long-held demand Meanwhile, the Wolaytas’ demands but donors are less enamoured of its for their own regional state to be carved for their own region are mounting up, achievements since. It is still in the out of the Southern Nations, Ethiopia’s followed by at least five other southern process of appointing a board, meaning multi-ethnic ‘museum of people’. communities. They will be emboldened that it has made no important decisions, Although the Southern Nations by any Sidama progress towards including whether to accept foreign administration received the request statehood. funds from partners queuing up to a year ago, there is no sign of a Publicly, there is no clear federal, support the election. With less than referendum. This has enraged Sidama regional or EPRDF policy on the matter. 10 months to the polls, delay looks activists, who say their constitutional That means either it is drifting towards inevitable – but there will be more rights are being ignored, as they were chaos, or that leaders plan federal drama first. neglected when they were included in intervention if matters get out of As a post-TPLF spring dawned in Southern Nations back in 1995 rather control. Some Tigrayan commentators Ethiopia last year, the Ethiopian elite than being given their own state. suggest the disorder is deliberate: revved up their activities. Some jetted Consequently, the four-million- if burgeoning ethno-nationalism back from the immense Ethiopian strong Sidamas are set on unilaterally threatens to tear the EPRDF apart and diaspora in Washington DC to Addis to declaring a new regional state around rip up its multinational federation, what proclaim the imminent death of ethnic 18 July, a year after the referendum better excuse for Addis Ababa to step federalism, OLF leaders trooped back request. That means there may well in and put matters right? Regardless, triumphantly from Asmara hotels to be intercommunal conflict in Awassa, whether devious or distracted, Abiy will Addis hotels, Guji Oromo turned on the multi-ethnic Southern Nations be busy. l

SOUTH AFRICA largest delegations. He will return on 20 June to deliver his first state of the nation speech since the 8 May poll. But A tale of two ANCs nobody is expecting any breakthroughs. He is expected to announce the framework of a short-term bail-out for The ruling party at war with itself searches for answers to a looming the electricity utility, Eskom, which is recession, spiralling unemployment and failing parastatals facing debt of $25 billion. South African Airways is in meltdown following the 2 June resignation of its CEO Vuyani wo wings of the African National companies to invest in government Jarana, who leaked the news he was Congress – the constitutional and development projects. Far from resolving stepping down and announced that he Tthe rent-seeking – are engulfed the ANC’s factional differences, the would leave the SAA Board. in a civil war which could turn the general election results have sharpened Magashule’s statement referred to country’s economy into a pariah them. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ‘quantity [sic] easing’ and a tweet in shunned by all foreign investment supporters and the opposition his name, which directly contradicted by year-end. ‘You can no longer talk Democratic Alliance are urging him to Ramaphosa’s subsequent denial, was about the ANC as one coherent body,’ take public statements on the economy later deleted. said one exasperated liberal economist away from ANC headquarters into the after the party announced that it would Presidency. BANK WARNINGS recommend extending the mandate The ANC statement came hours The repudiation of the statement came of the SA Reserve Bank, the central after the shock disclosure that South after investment bankers issued dire bank, to include developmental needs Africa’s GDP contracted by 3.2% in warnings when the double-shock came rather than confine itself to combating the first quarter of the year, bringing of the fall in growth and Magashule’s inflation. recession a step closer and ensuring statement about the Reserve Bank. One The proposal, which has been that growth for the year will come in key banker who was in Cape Town when discussed at various ANC executive well below 1%, possibly as low as 0.5%, the news broke told Africa Confidential, meetings since December last year, is some economists say. ‘We told the President that he could ANC policy but has not been adopted Ramaphosa was slow to repudiate forget about any new investment by the government because of what it the statement released by Magashule, unless certainty around the status of would cost and the damage it could do who is the second most powerful ANC the Reserve Bank was restored.’ Other to foreign investment. official and has repeatedly undermined prominent business people joined the The proposal that it should be Ramaphosa’s leadership by putting chorus. implemented along with quantitative his own interpretation on party By the time Ramaphosa denied easing measures was issued in statements, even when they run counter that the government was planning to the name of the ANC on 3 June, to government policy, according to nationalise or extend the mandate of following a meeting of the National insiders. Analysts sympathetic to the the Reserve Bank, the already ailing Executive Committee (NEC), by party President say he must take command of rand had fallen 4%, making it the Secretary-General Ace Magashule, who economic statements in order to prevent weakest emerging market currency, has been linked to corruption while them becoming the property of the left while some economists warned of a

Premier of Free State province (AC Vol and frightening investors. looming economic catastrophe. Property of Asempa Limited 60 No 11). Ramaphosa left South Africa on Earlier denials by Finance Minister Some observers see the proposals 10 June for the start of the 12-day Tito Mboweni and Public Enterprise as harbingers of nationalisation of the conference of the International Labour Minister Pravin Gordhan, who has led central bank and the introduction of Organisation in Geneva with an the government campaign against state prescribed assets, which would force entourage of 50, making it one of the capture and corruption, failed to arrest

10 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S5197/457513 Administration the sliding rand. What was once known On the upside, Ramaphosa has the current Public Protector Busisiwe as ‘Ramaphoria’ – the feeling of relief managed to eliminate a large number of Mkhwebane, a Zuma-appointed which came with the fall of President rent-seekers from his cabinet and from advocate who formerly worked in Zuma – has evaporated and the state institutions, but there have not yet intelligence. reformist leader is battling to control been any prosecutions of key suspects, Mkhwebane is leading a revived and a ruling party the core of which is far which will be crucial to changing formerly discredited investigation into more about patronage and rent-seeking perceptions. Gordhan about his role in a so-called than most have been willing to admit Ramaphosa has overwhelming ‘rogue unit’ within the tax collector, the (AC Vol 59 Nos 6 & 22). support in his cabinet for rooting out South African Revenue Service (AC Vol Morale among the business elite corruption, implementing investor- 58 No 19). and the wealthy is at a post-apartheid friendly policies and raising investment And she has also announced an low; money leaving the country is abroad but his support among the top investigation into whether Ramaphosa accelerating, financial experts say. six ANC officials and in the 110-member benefited from a $33,000 loan from The only factor preventing an all-out NEC is less sure, and open to a company that allegedly paid back- exodus of institutional money is that manipulation by the likes of Magashule handers to government officials to Moody’s, the only one of three agencies (AC Vol 60 No 10). further their cause. Ramaphosa said he that has not downgraded the country to Although Magashule has denied was not aware of the payment into his junk status, still believes Ramaphosa’s changing or adding to the long and campaign fund and has taken steps to reform initiatives can end corruption lugubrious ANC statement to include repay the full amount. and revive the economy. the reference to the Reserve Bank, AC Several of Mkhwebane’s findings This is a minority view. At present, was told by insiders that an earlier draft have been overturned by the courts the indicators are all going in the wrong had no such references. ‘Magashule has and some were described by lawyers as direction: if there is negative growth handed Ramaphosa a loaded revolver,’ ‘bizarre’. There have been widespread again next quarter, the country will fall wrote veteran columnist Max du Preez. calls for her resignation or removal back into a recession. ‘He needs to pull the trigger.’ from office. Growth for the year had been Dube Tshidi, former CEO of the downgraded from 0.9 to 0.7% by most BATTLE LINES Financial Services Board who has economists, youth unemployment is The battle lines in the party are now sent Mkhwebane’s finding on the pushing over 50% and the currency clearly drawn. Supporting Ramaphosa’s FSB for review, accused her of ‘gross is weak and losing value. Three of the reforms are: Gordhan and Mboweni; incompetence and negligence’. country’s most important state-owned ANC economic policy head Enoch Madonsela, her internationally enterprises – Eskom, Transnet, and SAA Godongwana; Reserve Bank Governor celebrated predecessor, went public for – are on the edge of bankruptcy and Lesetja Kganyago; and former Public the first time on 9 June to repudiate bail-outs are becoming more difficult Protector Thuli Madonsela. Mkhwebane’s claim that she was merely and exorbitantly expensive, financial Lined up against Ramaphosa with using the same strategy as Madonsela experts say. There is increasing talk Magashule are: Deputy President in her investigations of Gordhan and among analysts and business of David Mabuza; former Premier of North Ramaphosa, the two leaders of the fight the possibility of a bail-out by the West province Supra Mahumapelo; against state capture and graft exposed International Monetary Fund (IMF). former President Jacob Zuma; and by Madonsela. l Subscribing to Africa Confidential

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two-thirds of the total and Ghana’s high- Claims and counter-claims abound. POINTERS quality crop fetching a premium. But high Mutharika has accused Chakwera of supplies in 2016 led to a sharp decline in fomenting violence, while Chilima income. From a spot price high of over has accused the President’s aides of $3,100 per tonne in mid-2016, cocoa fell running a ‘crooked system of rigging’. Mauritania to $2,080 in 2018. It has been trading at Intelligence insiders claim Chilima’s UNCHANGING OF THE GUARD around $2,400 this year. team sought to hack the DPP’s digital n Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Last year, the two countries endorsed system (AC Vol 60 No 9). Ghazouani has reason to be confident a ‘strategic partnership agreement’ to as he approaches presidential elections respond to increasingly unsustainable Congo-Kinshasa/Rwanda on 22 June. An ally of retiring President cocoa economics, and have mooted a ENEMIES WITHOUT, AND WITHIN Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, the Defence floor price of $2,600. Ghana continues n UN peacekeepers and other security Minister has the state and the ruling to pay producers 7,600 cedis ($1,400) sources confirm that units from at least Union pour la République’s formidable per tonne for the 2017/18 and 2018/19 two battalions of the Rwanda Defence electoral machine behind him. A relative seasons, citing farmer welfare. Force have taken positions inside Congo- newcomer to politics, Ghazouani is short In March, both countries refused to Kinshasa, to hunt down groups of on charisma but the UPR will almost consent to International Organization Rwandan rebels. The troops have been certainly deliver him overwhelming for Standardization requirements on spotted by local sources in the Virunga victory in the first round. In the unlikely sustainable and traceable cocoa. A Park in North Kivu province, with reports event that he cannot clear 50%, a second declaration said the ISO terms would of others crossing over into neighbouring round will take place on 6 July. inflate costs, make farmers vulnerable South Kivu, near the tri-border area with Unlike the last presidential race in to takeover by third-party investors and Burundi, as late as 30 May. 2014, the major opposition forces will impede production. Congolese securocrats say the put up candidates, having last year In April the IMF advised the Ghanaian move is blessed by Congo-K’s president abandoned their long-standing boycott government to cut its producer price, Félix Tshisekedi, who discussed the to participate in legislative, regional and provoking a cool response from officials, neutralisation of armed groups in municipal polls (AC Vol 59 No 17). farmers and social justice campaigners. Congo-K at meetings in Kinshasa with Opposition parties could have It’s unclear whether the move to presidents Paul Kagame of Rwanda and secured more gains with better co- ‘go OPEC’ will win the support of other Angola’s João Lourenço on 31 May. ordination last year, and that mistake is cocoa-producing countries, especially Rwandan authorities have been being repeated again. There’s been no those in Latin America, and the tough applying pressure on Tshisekedi to prospect of a single opposition standard- stance is sure to meet resistance in attack two Rwandan Hutu groups bearer since anti-slavery campaigner Western countries where some of (the Forces démocratiques de libération Biram Ould Dah Abeid announced that cocoa’s biggest markets lie. du Rwanda and the Congrès National he would stand regardless of what de la Résistance pour la Démocratie) others did. Malawi that have increased their movements The secular ‘soft left’ is represented CHAOS HELPS MUTHARIKA between the two provinces this year (AC by Mohamed Ould Maouloud, leader of n Malawi’s defeated oppositionists Vol 60 No 6). Rwanda says these groups the Union des forces du progrès (UFP) are taking different attitudes to May’s are backed by both Burundi and Uganda. and joint candidate of the Coalition des disputed presidential polls, and that Kigali’s seasoned director of external forces du changement démocratique appears to be playing into newly re- intelligence, Anaclet Kalibata, has visited alliance. He has attacked a deal for elected President Peter Mutharika’s Kinshasa several times in recent months the state-owned Société Nationale hands (AC Vol 60 No 11). to warn Tshisekedi of the consequences Industrielle et Minière de Mauritanie Malawi Congress Party leader of not dismantling a Tutsi-led rebel group (SNIM) to allow the Australian mining Lazarus Chakwera has filed a petition in the high plateau of South Kivu that is firm BCM to take an 80% stake in a new for the partial recount, citing inflation of enmeshed with local Banyamulenge iron ore mine, a scheme the government voter figures and results sheets altered Tutsi militia and also allegedly allied to says will create 700 jobs. with. The MCP leader has also led public Bujumbura and Kampala. Diplomats say Tawassoul is not running its own demonstrations by his supporters, France has urged the UN to support the candidate and is backing the inoffensive causing chaotic scenes in Lilongwe. RDF operations, but the UN’s cautious former Prime Minister, Sidi Mohamed Former Vice-President Saulos top representative in Congo-K, Leila Ould Boubacar, perhaps a sign that the Chilima and his United Transformation Zerrougui demurred (AC Vol 59 No 23). Islamist party is heeding Abdel Aziz’s Movement (UTM), meanwhile, have filed The presence of RDF troops warnings last year not to overstep the for nullification of the results, alleging a is an emotive issue in Congo-K, mark in pushing political Islamism. series of errors by the Malawi Electoral which has fought several Rwandan- Abeid, Maouloud and Ould Boubacar Commission. backed rebellions since 1997 but also are serious contenders, but will all be Both parties appear to be going integrated many former Rwandaphone competing for the same pool of urban through the motions. Lawyers for both rebels into the Congolese army. Many youth votes. say there is little hard evidence to back Rwandaphone officers were also up the claims. Senior UTM officials involved in the massacres in 2016 and Côte d’Ivoire/Ghana accept that they filed the petition to be 2017 in Tshisekedi’s native Kasai region. COCOANOMICS seen as doing something, while the MCP Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni n Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are tactic is to force civil disobedience in the is said to be irked at the move just weeks threatening to suspend the sale of hope of forcing a recount or rerun. The after diplomats said Tshisekedi had Property of Asempa Limited cocoa beans to the open market for the parties show no sign of being willing to opened discussions with Kampala about 2020/21 crop season in a bid to secure work together. Chilima officials say they allowing the Ugandan People’s Defence higher prices for their farmers. The two have rejected requests for support from Force (UPDF) entry into the Beni sector countries produce 65% of world cocoa Chakwera, while Chilima has condemned of North Kivu to take on Ugandan rebels, output; the Ivorians contributing about the violence of Chakwera’s supporters. the Allied Defence Forces.

12 14 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 12 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Andrew Weir on 14/06/2019 at 22:39. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected].