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Korea Cosmetics Sector: K-Beauty: Still Very

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Korea Cosmetics Sector: K-Beauty: Still Very Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples / Korea 26 March 2015 K-beauty: still very hot Korea Cosmetics Sector • Due to Chinese demand, we expect Korea cosmetics companies to Positive (initiation) see 2015 EPS growth of 23% YoY vs. 8% YoY for global peers Neutral • Trend-setting Korean companies are focused not just on expanding in China but in developed markets, too Negative • Due to their earnings-growth prospects, the Korean stocks look undervalued relative to global peers; Amorepacific is our top pick How do we justify our view? Better growth prospects, yet manufacturer of facial masks that is undervalued relative to global starting to penetrate the China peers. We forecast the Korean market with its Leaders brand. companies to see an EPS CAGR of 22.6% in 2015-17, outpacing the And we like Cosmax (192820 KS, Iris Park global peer average of 8.2% KRW133,500, Outperform [2]), (82) 2787 9165 (Bloomberg forecasts). On this basis, which we believe merits a premium [email protected] Korean stocks look undervalued, valuation as we forecast it to deliver with an average 2015E PEG of 1.5x sustained earnings growth and see it versus global peers’ 2.5x. as taking the next steps to secure ■ Investment case long-term growth backed by its main We believe the Korean cosmetics ■ Catalysts partner, L’Oreal. stocks are set to set outperform their Forthcoming IPOs. Within the global peers this year due to: 1) sector there are 3 IPOs scheduled for ■ Risks increasing Chinese tourism to Korea, this year (1 ODM company and 2 The main risk to our sector view plus business expansion via online one-brand shops). Historically, IPOs would be greater-than-expected channels, 2) more brands entering in the sector have had a positive competition from cosmetics players other international markets, and 3) impact on related stocks, and we based in China. Secondary risks global-peer-leading EPS growth for highlight Cosmax, Korea Kolmar, include inventory leaking to the 2015 and beyond, against which they AmoreG, and Able C&C as the black market and widespread appear undervalued compared with biggest potential beneficiaries of availability of counterfeit products. the global majors. new listings this time around. Rising tourism from China, ■ Valuation Key stock calls plus online expansion. Sales New Prev. from counters at duty-free shops On our forecasts, the Korean companies (excluding outliers) Amorepacific (090430 KS) (DFS) in Korea, which contribute Rating Outperform some 20% of domestic cosmetics would see average EPS growth of 30.5% YoY in 2015, compared with Target 3,800,000 revenue, should continue to grow 12.8% YoY for their global Upside 12.6% amid increasing tourist arrivals from Sansung Life & Science (016100 KQ) China. And, taking advantage of competitors. Moreover, their Rating Buy their geographical proximity, increasing penetration of Target 90,000 Korean companies are expanding international markets should Upside 43.5% their reach in China through cross- support robust earnings growth over Cosmax (192820 KS) border e-commerce and B2C sites. our forecast horizon, in our opinion. Rating Outperform Target 150,000 Going beyond China. The Korean Our top large-cap pick is Upside 12.4% companies are broadening their Amorepacific (090430 KS, LG Household & Health Care (051900 KS) Rating Outperform horizons beyond China, and their BB KRW3,374,000, Outperform [2]), which we believe is ready to go Target 850,000 and CC creams have been well- Upside 6.3% received in Europe and the US. We global with its trend-setting cushion foundation. Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) believe cushion foundations and facial Rating Outperform masks are next in line to go global, Among the small- and mid-caps, our Target 1,500,000 which should expand the Korean top pick is Sansung L&S (016100 Upside 6.4% cosmetics firms’ revenue growth. KQ, KRW62,700, Buy [1]), a Source: Daiwa forecasts. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 81 Korea Cosmetics Sector 26 March 2015 Positive (initiation) How do we justify our view? Neutral Growth outlook Negative Valuation Earnings revisions Korea Cosmetics Sector: aggregate revenue of under coverage Growth outlook We forecast the Korean cosmetics companies in our (KRWbn) coverage group to see a combined revenue CAGR of 18,000 16,000 12.3% in 2015-17. CAGR +12.3% 14,000 To reach this conclusion, we factor in 15-18% yearly 12,000 growth in the number of tourist arrivals from 10,000 Mainland China in 2015-17. We also assume the 8,000 companies expand their sales exposure to the online 6,000 market in China, which we believe is currently 4,000 equivalent in size to 60.8% of the total sales of Korean 2,000 cosmetics. 0 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Source: Daiwa Valuation Global peer valuation: PEG comparison The Korean companies currently are trading at (x) discounts to their global peers. They are trading at just 4.0 3.5 a 1.5x PEG for 2015E, compared with 2.5x for the 3.0 global majors (Bloomberg figures). 2.5 2.0 1.5 Yet comparing forecast earnings growth for the 2 1.0 0.5 groups for 2015 and 2015-17, the Korean companies 0.0 are well ahead, supported not only by demand from KAO Cosmax Unilever LG H&H AmoreG Chinese shoppers but expansion into new international L'OREAL Able C&C Beiersdorf Amorepacific Estee Lauder Estee markets. Korea Kolmar L&S Sansung Avon Products Avon Shanghai Jahwa Shanghai Johnson & Johnson Johnson PEG PEG average Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa estimates for Korea companies under coverage Korea Cosmetics Sector: revenue trends and growth (2014-15E) Earnings revisions We expect DFS sales to be the main driver of revenue (KRWbn) growth for the major cosmetics companies in 2015. We 6,000 120% assume the number of visitors from China to Korea 5,000 100% increases by 21.5% YoY to 7.4m this year, which we 4,000 80% expect to support DFS sales growth of 52.5% YoY for Amorepacific and 70.7% YoY for LG H&H. 3,000 60% 2,000 40% Across our coverage, we look for Sansung L&S to show 1,000 20% the strongest revenue growth in 2015 (up 95.2% YoY to 0 0% KRW234bn), backed by surging demand for its facial Amorepacific LG H&H Cosmax Korea Able C&C Sansung masks. And we expect Amorepacific to see a 20.1% YoY Kolmar L&S rise in its 2015 revenue to KRW4.6tn as it leverages its 2014 Revenue (LHS) 2015E Revenue (LHS) YoY (RHS) exposure to the DFS and China markets. Source: Factset, Daiwa - 2 - Korea Cosmetics Sector 26 March 2015 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg Able C&C 078520 KS 33,000 Sell 22,000 1,273 1,429 Amorepacific 090430 KS 3,374,000 Outperform 3,800,000 98,345 124,978 Amorepacific Group 002790 KS 1,410,000 Outperform 1,500,000 45,274 54,446 Cosmax 192820 KS 133,500 Outperform 150,000 3,924 5,486 Korea Kolmar 161890 KS 64,100 Hold 64,000 1,732 2,040 LG Household & Health Care 051900 KS 800,000 Outperform 850,000 27,563 32,667 Sansung Life & Science 016100 KQ 62,700 Buy 90,000 3,039 4,677 Source: Daiwa forecasts - 3 - Korea Cosmetics Sector 26 March 2015 Contents K-beauty: still very hot ................................................................................................................. 5 High visibility on continued growth in Chinese tourist arrivals .............................................. 5 Internet penetration presents opportunities ........................................................................... 8 Scope for market penetration overseas .................................................................................. 11 Fast trends: attract new consumers and lock in existing ones ............................................... 13 Being Asian: key advantage in China...................................................................................... 16 Dermatology and plastic surgery: another competitive edge ................................................. 16 Valuations and key stock calls .................................................................................................... 19 Valuation ................................................................................................................................. 19 Stock picks ............................................................................................................................... 19 Share-price catalysts .............................................................................................................. 20 Risks to our sector view ......................................................................................................... 20 Appendices ................................................................................................................................ 22 Appendix 1: the China market ............................................................................................... 22 Appendix 2: Korean cosmetics brands at a glance ................................................................ 23 Company Section Amorepacific .......................................................................................................................... 24 Sansung Life & Science .......................................................................................................... 33 Cosmax ................................................................................................................................... 50 LG Household & Health Care ................................................................................................
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