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The Stars Group Inc. TSGI-TSX: $28.83 Q319 Results Mixed Reaffirming Prospective Combination with Flutter Tender Is a Positive N/A Target

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The Stars Group Inc. TSGI-TSX: $28.83 Q319 Results Mixed Reaffirming Prospective Combination with Flutter Tender Is a Positive N/A Target November 7, 2019 Online Gambling/Lotteries The Stars Group Inc. TSGI-TSX: $28.83 Q319 Results Mixed Reaffirming Prospective Combination with Flutter Tender is a Positive N/A Target Event: The Stars Group announced Q319 results. All figures are in US$ unless otherwise noted. Projected Return: N/A Results: TSGI reported Q319 revenue of $622M (EWP: $625M) (Cons: $640M), Adj. EBITDA of $239M (EWP: $231M) (Cons: $231M), and Adj. EPS of $0.50 (EWP: $0.42) (Cons: $0.42). FX continued to be a headwind and negatively impacted Q319 revenue by $29M. Its International, UK and Australia divisions contributed $325M, $227M and $71M, respectively, to revenue. Poker, Casino and Sportsbook revenues in the quarter were $194M, $197M, and $228M, respectively. International, UK and Australia quarterly active uniques (QAUs) were down 8.5%, down 1.1% and down 20.5%, respectively. TSGI expects 2019 results to meet previously issued guidance ranges of revenue between $2,500-2,575M, Adj. EBITDA between $905-930M, and Adj. EPS between $1.68-1.83. 2020 guidance will not be issued as a result of the pending deal with Flutter Entertainment (FLTR-LON, NR). Of note and a key indicator of bettor health, betting stakes (turnover) was mixed across its regions (-2.3%, +12.6%, -11.9% y/y growth in International, UK and Australia, respectively). It is worth noting Q318 results include the positive impacts from the FIFA World Cup tournament, which leads to tough comparables for Q319. The Company is tracking to its established $100M in cost synergies as a run rate by year end. With the quarter coming in mixed against expectations, we continue to view the Flutter deal as positive and believe it is the best path forward to realize further efficiency gains in size and scale. Flutter Transaction: TSGI recently announced it has reached an agreement to be acquired by Flutter Entertainment in an all-stock transaction that would have seen the combined entity deliver £3.8B in revenue for 2018. Stars shareholders are to receive 0.2253 New Flutter Shares in exchange for each TSGI share. The combined company will be incorporated, headquartered and domiciled in Dublin, Ireland with a premium listing on the LSE and a secondary listing on Euronext Dublin. The combined entity will see Flutter shareholders own 54.64% with the remaining 45.36% owned by TSGI shareholders. The acquisition is seen to deliver substantial value creation in pre-tax synergies of £140M per year along with cross-sell opportunities and lower finance costs and is expected to be at least 50% accretive to FLTR EPS the first full financial year following closing. Flutter has entered into support agreements with various TSGI shareholders and directors, representing 23.79% of existing issued common shares – two-thirds shareholder approval is required for the acquisition to pass. Approval of FLTR and TSGI shareholders is expected in Q220 with completion by Q320. See our full note here. We reiterate our TENDER rating. Source: Consensus Data – FactSet, Historicals – Company Filings, Forecasts/Estimates – Echelon Wealth Partners Gianluca Tucci | 647.794.1926 | [email protected] Page 1 of 6 The Stars Group Inc. (TSGI-TSX) | November 7, 2019 Valuation TSGI is currently trading at a C2019E EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, and P/E of 4.3x, 12.1x, and 12.7x, respectively, versus its Online Gaming Operator comparables average of 2.6x, 10.3x, and 17.9x, respectively, and Flutter Entertainment at 3.3x, 17.7x, 26.3x, respectively. Exhibit 1 – Global Gaming Comparables GLOBAL GAMING COMPARABLES Price Rating Target Mkt Cap Ent. Value LTM Rev EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E Ticker (Local) (Local) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Stars Group Inc. TSGI-CA $ 28.96 TENDER N/A 6,323 11,012 2,444 5.4 4.3 4.0 14.1 12.1 11.2 10.0 12.7 11.2 Pollard Banknote Limited PBL-CA $ 20.67 BUY $ 26.50 402 509 271 2.0 1.7 1.6 13.9 11.0 9.9 33.3 21.8 20.2 Score Media and Gaming Inc. Class A SCR-CA $ 0.59 SPEC BUY $ 0.90 160 144 23 6.8 6.1 3.8 NM NM NM NM NM NM Legacy Gaming Operators Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS 63.93 49,101 58,753 13,705 4.3 4.3 4.3 11.6 11.6 11.2 19.3 19.7 19.0 MGM Resorts International MGM 30.60 15,723 34,743 12,767 3.0 2.7 2.6 12.4 11.3 10.3 31.0 39.3 20.5 Caesars Entertainment Corporation CZR 12.60 8,556 26,321 8,637 3.1 3.0 3.0 11.5 11.2 10.5 30.8 NM NM Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN 125.72 13,529 21,106 6,707 3.1 3.1 2.9 10.6 11.5 10.2 19.2 29.4 20.9 Penn National Gaming, Inc. PENN 21.88 2,535 4,601 5,115 1.3 0.9 0.8 4.4 2.9 2.7 23.5 14.3 10.6 Eldorado Resorts Inc ERI 49.09 3,807 7,910 2,432 3.8 3.1 3.1 15.3 11.4 10.7 40.2 28.8 22.3 Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD 28.02 3,114 7,043 3,285 2.7 2.1 2.1 10.7 8.8 8.4 21.1 16.4 14.3 Red Rock Resorts, Inc. Class A RRR 21.26 2,491 4,683 1,774 2.8 2.5 2.4 9.2 9.4 8.3 15.8 221.4 18.6 Great Canadian Gaming Corporation GC-CA 38.47 1,672 2,832 1,021 3.1 2.8 2.6 10.8 8.9 8.3 16.4 13.7 17.0 Golden Entertainment, Inc. GDEN 15.41 428 1,609 908 1.9 1.7 1.6 9.8 8.7 8.2 NM NM NM Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. MCRI 43.78 792 962 247 4.0 3.9 3.1 15.7 15.3 11.5 23.9 24.4 17.6 Gamenet Group SpA GAME-IT 12.58 417 883 699 1.1 1.1 1.0 6.8 5.0 4.4 15.2 10.2 7.1 Century Casinos, Inc. CNTY 7.86 232 322 196 1.9 1.6 1.1 13.7 11.7 6.5 69.6 92.6 12.1 Average 2.8 2.5 2.3 11.0 9.8 8.6 27.2 46.4 16.3 Median 3.0 2.7 2.6 10.8 11.2 8.4 22.3 24.4 17.6 Online Gaming Operators Flutter Entertainment Plc PPB-GB 82.16 8,244 9,048 2,623 3.7 3.3 3.0 15.3 17.7 16.2 21.2 26.3 24.2 GVC Holdings PLC GVC-GB 7.99 5,959 8,783 4,674 1.9 1.9 1.8 8.9 9.6 8.4 10.2 12.4 10.3 Evolution Gaming Group AB EVO-SE 233.50 4,411 4,323 373 15.6 10.9 8.7 35.5 22.2 18.1 46.9 27.9 22.9 Playtech plc PTEC-GB 4.07 1,583 2,112 1,757 1.5 1.2 1.2 5.4 4.9 4.6 6.3 8.7 7.9 William Hill PLC WMH-GB 1.70 1,909 2,728 2,110 1.3 1.3 1.3 6.7 9.1 8.2 8.0 18.0 13.4 Kindred Group plc Shs Swedish Depository ReceiptsKIND-SE 63.54 1,521 1,667 1,182 1.4 1.4 1.2 6.4 8.9 6.9 8.8 15.6 10.7 Gamesys Group PLC JPJ-GB 7.10 987 996 #N/A 2.3 2.2 1.3 6.7 5.6 4.4 5.7 7.5 6.0 Betsson AB Class B BETS.B-SE 46.40 668 726 571 1.2 1.3 1.3 4.5 5.5 5.4 6.1 8.1 7.9 Rank Group Plc RNK-GB 2.18 1,092 1,090 900 1.2 1.3 NM 7.0 NM NM 14.6 15.4 NM 888 Holdings Plc 888-GB 1.58 744 697 534 1.3 1.2 1.2 6.5 8.0 7.2 7.8 14.6 13.0 LeoVegas AB LEO-SE 29.95 317 379 348 1.0 0.9 0.8 8.1 7.5 5.8 6.2 9.4 6.6 Kambi Group plc Class B KAMBI-SE 168.40 531 514 98 6.0 5.1 4.0 19.9 16.3 11.4 47.6 47.0 24.8 bet-at-home.com AG ACX-DE 46.76 362 305 157 2.3 2.4 2.3 7.5 8.2 7.8 10.4 21.3 12.6 Average 3.1 2.6 2.3 10.6 10.3 8.7 15.4 17.9 13.4 Median 1.5 1.4 1.3 7.0 8.5 7.5 8.8 15.4 11.7 Gaming Technology Vendors Aristocrat Leisure Limited ALL-AU 31.22 13,725 15,430 2,972 5.8 5.1 4.7 16.0 14.4 13.0 25.8 22.8 19.4 Scientific Games Corporation SGMS 26.98 2,513 11,132 3,389 3.3 3.2 3.1 8.4 8.2 7.9 NM NM 40.1 International Game Technology PLC IGT 13.69 2,799 10,504 4,801 2.2 2.2 2.2 6.0 6.2 6.1 14.0 11.5 10.1 Evolution Gaming Group AB EVO-SE 233.50 4,411 4,323 373 15.6 10.9 8.7 35.5 22.2 18.1 46.9 27.9 22.9 Everi Holdings, Inc.
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