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Access Granted: Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence

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Access Granted: Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence Access Granted Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence, 1945–2014 Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jennifer Kavanagh C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1339 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9459-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: U.S. Air Force photo by Osakabe Yasuo. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface American policymakers and defense analysts have long worried that host nations will restrict or rescind U.S. basing rights, thereby imped- ing the ability of the United States to execute military operations. A number of recent studies have claimed that access problems are grow- ing increasingly severe and that the United States may not be able to sustain its global base network. In response to this apparent trend, the Department of Defense has made a concerted effort over the past decade to adapt its overseas military presence. Rather than rely almost entirely on large, fixed garrisons, it is now placing a much greater emphasis on the temporary or periodic use of facilities in partner nations. Yet it is unclear whether this change will make access more reliable. The RAND Corporation has a long history of examining the U.S. global defense posture—its network of forces and facilities overseas. A number of recent studies have focused on different aspects of the U.S. posture, including the following: • Lynn E. Davis, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Melanie W. Sisson, Stephen M. Worman, and Michael J. McNerney, U.S. Overseas Military Presence: What Are the Strategic Choices? MG-1211-AF, 2012. • Stacie L. Pettyjohn, U.S. Global Defense Posture, 1783–2011, MG-1244-AF, 2012. • Jennifer Moroney, Patrick Mills, David T. Orletsky, and David E. Thaler, Working with Allies and Partners: A Cost-Based Analysis of U.S. Air Force Bases in Europe, TR-1241-AF, 2012. iii iv Access Granted: Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence • Stacie Pettyjohn and Alan Vick, The Posture Triangle: A New Framework for U.S. Air Force Global Presence, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-402-AF, 2013. • Patrick Mills, Adam R. Grissom, Jennifer Kavanagh, Leila Mahnad, and Stephen M. Worman, A Cost Analysis of the U.S. Air Force Overseas Posture: Informing Strategic Choices, RR-150-AF, 2013. • Lostumbo, Michael, Michael J. McNerney, Eric Peltz, Derek Eaton, David R. Frelinger, Victoria A. Greenfield, John Halliday, Patrick Mills, Bruce R. Nardulli, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jerry M. Sollinger, and Stephen M. Worman, Overseas Basing of U.S. Mili- tary Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits, RR-201-OSD, 2013 • Alan J. Vick, Air Base Attacks and Defensive Counters: Historical Lessons and Future Challenges, RR-968, 2015. This report builds on RAND’s earlier posture work by focusing on the issue of political access. It seeks to unpack the access issue and systematically explore the entire spectrum of political access problems that the United States has confronted since 1945. It offers a framework for understanding threats to access and then conducts qualitative and quantitative assessments in an effort to better understand the severity of access problems and how they have changed over time. This report should be relevant for policymakers who are responsible for building and sustaining relationships with host nations but should also be of interest to scholars who have studied the political effects of U.S. over- seas bases and to analysts of U.S. foreign and defense policy. This report integrates findings from a fiscal year (FY) 2011 RAND Project AIR FORCE study commissioned by the U.S. Air Force Vice Chief of Staff and an FY 2013 study commissioned by the U.S. Air Force Director of Operational Planning. The FY 2011 study results were originally published in Stacie Pettyjohn and Alan Vick, The Pos- ture Triangle: A New Framework for U.S. Air Force Global Presence, RR-402-AF, 2013. This report was completed using concept formula- tion support from the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE. Preface v RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi CHAPTER ONE Understanding Political Access Problems .................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Internal and External Threats to Access .....................................11 Internal Threats ....................................................................11 External Threats .................................................................. 20 Conclusion ........................................................................ 38 CHAPTER THREE Peacetime Access Challenges ..................................................39 Assessing Peacetime Access Risk ............................................... 40 Peacetime Access Challenges Across Time .................................... 56 Conclusion .........................................................................63 CHAPTER FOUR Contingency Access .............................................................65 Contingency Access Statistical Analysis ........................................69 Concluding Thoughts ............................................................83 vii viii Access Granted: Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence CHAPTER FIVE Other Factors That Influence Access Success or Failure ..................85 Self-Interest: Is an Operation Likely to Help or Harm a Nation’s Well-Being? .................................................................. 87 Legitimacy .........................................................................89 Fear of Retaliation .............................................................. 107 Domestic Politics ................................................................ 110 Conclusion ....................................................................... 114 CHAPTER SIX Integrated Insights ............................................................ 117 Interaction Between Peacetime and Contingency Access .................. 117 Vacillators and Repeat Offenders .............................................. 130 CHAPTER SEVEN Conclusion ...................................................................... 143 Findings .......................................................................... 143 Recommendations .............................................................. 147 Final Thoughts .................................................................. 149 APPENDIXES A. Peacetime Access Challenges ............................................. 151 B. Contingency Access Methodology and Results ....................... 159 C. Contingency Access Codebook .......................................... 189 Abbreviations ................................................................... 195 References ....................................................................... 197 Figures 1.1. The Linkage Between Peacetime and Contingency Access ...... 7 2.1. Types of Antibase Movements .....................................18 2.2. External Anti-Access Threats .......................................21 3.1. Composite Peacetime Access Risk with Select Host Nations ................................................................55 3.2. Peacetime Access Challenges, 1945–2014 ........................58 3.3. Number of Peacetime
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