Pacific Ecosystem‐Based Adaptation to Climate Change Project (PEBACC)

Pacific Ecosystem‐based Adaptation to Climate Change Project (PEBACC) Consultancy to Undertake Ecosystem and Socio-economic Resilience Analysis and Mapping (ESRAM) and associated work at multiple-scales in Vanuatu Terms of Reference 1. Background Pacific islands are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of global warming, sea level rise and climate change. This vulnerability stems from a number of inter‐connected factors that relate to the biogeography and socio‐economic profile of island countries. Key amongst these are i) concentration of settlement in the coastal zone, ii) high reliance on coastal and marine resources for livelihoods, iii) exposure to oceanic influenced hydro‐meteorological hazards such as cyclones and storm surges, iv) limited freshwater availability due to small catchments, v) fragility of ecosystems to disturbance, vi) modification of coastal and terrestrial habitats, vii) small economies, viii) geographic and biological isolation from mainlands. Pacific islands do however have certain characteristics that promote resilience of their people and environment to the impacts of global warming and climate change. These include: high levels of marine, coastal and terrestrial biodiversity, ii) a diversity of coastal landforms, iii) fringing and barrier reefs that provide physical protection; iv) relatively low population densities and growth rates (although this varies between islands); v) local knowledge of environmental processes and conditions; vi) a history of coping with adverse physical conditions and environmental change. Climate change is predicted to have a range of impacts on Pacific Island ecosystems and the services they provide for current and future development. Recent climate change modelling assessments by the Australian Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) programme for Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu highlight the key projections as: rising sea level, increasing amount and frequency of rainfall events, increasing ocean acidification, decrease in dry season rainfall (except for Solomon Islands), little to no increase in the incidence of drought. The main areas of impact on ecological sustainability and development will be on coastal areas, food security (land based and fisheries), watershed management and water resources, tourism and commercial agriculture. Disaster risk management is also a key factor in climate change adaptation planning. In an assessment by the World Bank of the impact of natural disasters for the period 1950-2008 Fiji ranked second, Vanuatu third and Solomon Islands fourth of all Pacific island countries and territories. Most of these were weather related (cyclones, flooding) and caused millions of dollars damage that impacted substantially on GDP. While climate change modelling predicts that the number of cyclones is expected to decline they will increase in intensity, an increase in intense rainfall events will impact severely on poorly managed/deforested watersheds, with consequent impacts on lagoons and reefs, compounding impacts of sea level rise and acidification over the coming century. Because of the small size and high land-to-boundary ratios of Pacific islands, there is strong topographical connectivity between ecosystems on volcanic islands with the general pattern being one of forested watersheds connecting directly to the coastal zone and inshore marine environment through riparian waterways. It follows that the health of marine ecosystems is often directly linked to the health of riparian and forest ecosystems. This recognition has led more organisations to adopt a Ridge‐to‐ Reef approach in addressing environmental issues, such as sedimentation of coral reefs. In a similar vein, there is connectivity between freshwater lenses and saltwater. Recognising that healthy ecosystems contribute positively to the resilience of societies and biodiversity, the PEBACC project promotes the use of an Ecosystem‐based Adaptation (EbA) approach to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in the face of climate change and associated impacts in the Pacific island region. It is recognized that the drivers of ecosystem degradation are often non‐climate related; rather they are the outcome of unsustainable human activities. Restoring ecosystem health requires an understanding of how human activities are impacting on ecosystems and ensuring that interventions are targeted at addressing the root causes while at the same time investing in ecosystem restoration activities. The concept of environmental goods and services, as introduced by the Millennium Development Assessment, has furthered our understanding and appreciation of the role and value of ecosystems in maintaining and strengthening the resilience of societies, economies and cultures. Economic valuation of environmental services and tools like cost‐benefit analysis help us better comprehend and value how much we rely on the ‘free’ services provided by nature. Initiatives such as PEBACC, seek to promote the use of ecosystem valuation and natural solutions as part of a broader suite of adaptation responses to climate change. Funded by the German Federal Ministry of Environment’s (BMUB) International Climate Change Initiative (IKI), PEBACC operates in three Pacific island countries: Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands. The overall intended outcome of the project is: EbA is integrated into development, climate change adaptation and natural resource management policy and planning processes in three Pacific island countries providing replicable models for other countries in the region. In order to demonstrate the value of the EbA approach, PEBACC will undertake comprehensive ecosystem and socio‐economic resilience analysis and mapping (ESRAM) as a basis for adaptation planning at national, provincial and community levels in the project countries. ESRAMs will inform the identification, costing and prioritization of EbA options for adaptation planning and will feed into site- specific EbA implementation plans. Based on these plans, the project will support a number of demonstration EbA activities at project sites. The fourth pillar of the PEBACC project is the development of communications and outreach products to promote the integration of EbA options into climate change policies, plans and projects. In Vanuatu the targeted areas are Port Vila, the capital of Vanuatu on Efate Island in Shefa Province, and Tafea Province. Project work in Vanuatu started in March 2016 with the commencement of the Port Vila ESRAM. SPREP is now seeking a consortium, or consulting company, to carry out the second ecosystem and socio‐ economic resilience analysis and mapping (ESRAM) component of the project in Vanuatu. This will involve the conducting of two ESRAMs – one at the national level, and one at the island level, where a ‘whole-of-island’, ‘ridge-to-reef’ approach is to be adopted. Interested parties are invited to tender for undertaking the two ESRAMs together or individually. The island level ESRAM will focus on the island of Tanna which is located in the south of the Vanuatu archipelago approximately 200 km from the capital of Port Vila. Tanna Island is 40 km long and 19 km wide, with a total area of 550 km2. Its highest point is the 1,084 m summit of Mount Tukosmera in the south of the island. The south east coast is dominated by Mount Yasur, a highly active volcano. Part of Tafea Province, Tanna has a population of about 29,000 and is one of the most populous islands in the country. Isangel, the provincial administrative capital, is on the west coast near the island's largest town of Lénakel. Tanna’s almost entirely Melanesians population follow a more traditional lifestyle than many other islands. Some of the higher altitude villages are known as kastom villages, where modern inventions are restricted. The island is one of the most fertile in Vanuatu and produces kava, coffee, coconut, copra, and other fruits and vegetables. However, poor farming practices on Tanna have led to severe erosion with negative implication for coastal villages and ecosystems. Rapid population growth is raising concerns about increased pressure on the land and its resources. Recently, tourism has become more important, as tourists are attracted to the volcano and traditional culture. Tanna has globally threatened and endemic species, including the critically endangered capoxylon palm and 8 endemic plant species. 2. Ecosystem and Socio‐economic Resilience Analysis and Mapping Requirements The objective of the ESRAM process is to generate a robust information planning baseline to inform the identification of ecosystem‐based adaptation options for strengthening the resilience of Vanuatu to the impacts of climate change and other global and local changes. The national level ESRAM will be a broad brush, low resolution exercise given the geographical area and funding, data and time constraints. The Island level ESRAM will involve the additional components of developing a costed EbA options report as well as EbA Implementation Plans for selected EbA demonstration sites. Identify and map natural resources, systems, processes, goods and services critical for environmental sustainability and socio‐ecological climate change resilience at the national level and for an island and community level for Tanna. The ESRAM for Tanna Island is expected to be detailed and comprehensive and grounded in a combination of desk‐based research, consultations and fieldwork. Facilitate an understanding of the inter‐connectedness between ecosystems and

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