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Situation Overview Hotel Development & Investment Analysis Master of Science Real Estate Development Columbia University Fall, 2016 Class Overview Week 1 – State of the Industry/Development Overview/Feasibility Week 2 – Development Overview/The Operating Statement/Underwriting/The Lender’s Perspective Week 3 – The Role of Brands/Management & Franchise Agreements Weeks 4 & 5 – Integrated Product/Resorts/Sharing Economy/Developer Case Studies Week 6 – Final Presentations Class #1 Course Introduction Current Market Overview/Trends Today’s Investment Climate Why invest/develop Hotels? Is now the time? Class#2 P&L Review/Capital Markets Overview Development Process Overview Development Costs Across Various Segments Review of Feasibility/Appraisal Process P&L Review The Operating Statement (incl. various segments.) Fixed/Variable Nature of Hotels Analysis of Market Share, Occupancy, ADR Revenue & Expense Forecasting Underwriting Process (Valuation Methodologies) Capital Markets Perspective Capital Sources & Financing Credit & Hotel-Specific Concerns Debt Yield Vs. DSCR EB-5, etc Class #3 Utilizing Brands/Management & Franchise Agreements Management contracts & franchise agreements. Roles/Uses/Necessity of a Brand Differences between Brands Which brand is right for your hotel? PIP’s Design features/Importance-of Takeaways 1. Analyze factors that influence the decision to develop/invest in hotel real estate, including: general economic trends, the hotel investment climate, business cycle issues, and alternative investment opportunities; 2. Apply the steps necessary to value a hotel; contrast the various techniques used by different parties to a transaction including the seller, buyer, broker, and lender; 3. Examine those considerations of ownership that are most germane in hotel property investing including the selection of a management company and franchise affiliation; 4. Formulate an opinion of value for a specific hotel property and communicate the findings; 5. An understanding of current trends and market dynamics; 5. Understand the management and asset management functions; 6. Determine effective sales and marketing strategies for a hotel asset. Where Are We Today? Where Are We Today? (NOI of Actual Hotel) $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -$2,000,000 Year EBITDA Transposed $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -$2,000,000 Where are we today? Rapid Accelerated Development Development Development ? Lodging Picks Up Decline, Leads U.S. is Here 2016/7 Other Sectors Long Run Occupancy 2015 2014 ADR and Occupancy Margins Equilibrium Declines, ADR Recover ADR Follows 2013 Development Occupancy Slows 2012 Recovers Development at Minimum Lodging Recovers, Lags Levels Other Sectors (Not this Time!) Overview . The fundamentals are solid across the vast majority of markets. No threats from the factors that historically have brought an end to the good times. Elevated industry growth will persist comfortably into 2017. High occupancy levels will provide the leverage needed to achieve large real ADR increases for the next two-three years. Competition for building materials and labor will continue to present challenges for developers in most markets. Modest (but increasing) hotel construction will be the result for the next two-three years. Above long run average occupancy levels will lead to strong profit growth comfortably through 2017, enough to off-set increasing labor costs. Ability to re-price on a daily basis provides greatest upside scenario of all real estate asset classes in a positive economic and low-supply environment. However… . 2016 likely to be remembered as the peak year of the post Great Recession cycle . New supply concerns and global economic factors impacting outlook for hotel performance and investment . Debt more challenging to procure, though interest rates remain low . Gap between buyer and seller expectations stalling transaction market . Cap rates have risen 50 bps for most assets but remain low for high quality full service and luxury hotels in prime markets . Aging hotels once again challenged due to lender pullback, cap ex and new supply . Higher cap rates will be offset by rising NOI in strong markets sustaining values . Higher cap rates will negatively impact values in markets facing supply and demand challenges and stagnant or declining NOI Industry Observations (Cont’d) . The U.S. lodging industry will likely achieve 65.7% occupancy in 2015, the highest national occupancy rate since STR, Inc. began reporting data in 1987. By year-end 2015, PKF projects that the demand for lodging accommodations will have increased ~26% since the depths of the recession in 2009, while the supply of hotel rooms will have grown by just 5.6%. RevPAR growth driven by much stronger occupancy growth than previously expected. Construction activity remains below historical averages, but is picking up. Accelerating supply growth, heading towards long-term average of 1.9% (though market specific) . With U.S. hotels achieving all-time high occupancy levels, hoteliers should be able to continue to drive ADR going forward. Through 13/14, the economic recovery mostly benefitted higher-income segments of the population. This led to an imbalanced pattern of lodging recovery that has favored upper- priced properties and large coastal markets. Now, with employment levels on the rise across all employment sectors, we are seeing a commensurate uptick in performance across the entire U.S. lodging spectrum. Being further along the business cycle, the upper-priced RevPAR gains are heavily influenced by ADR, while the lower-priced RevPAR growth is the result of a balance between occupancy and ADR increases. August 2016 YTD: Occ % Change Turned Negative. % Change • Room Supply 1.5% • Room Demand 1.3% • Occupancy 66.9% -0.2% • A.D.R. $124 3.1% • RevPAR $83 2.9% August 2016 YTD, Total US Results August 2016 RevPAR: Three Markets Drag Results Down Total US YTD: +2.9% NYC: - 2.8% Miami - 3.3% Houston: - 10.7% Total US excluding NYC / Houston / Miami: +3.5% *RevPAR % Change August 2016 YTD for Total US excluding NYC, Houston, Miami Tenets to live by… . Hotels are a unique combination of single purpose real estate that is inextricably linked with a complex operating business. That operating business usually accounts for up to 50% or more of the value of hotels mid scale or higher. Unless you have extremely patient capital with a tolerance for volatility, very deep pockets, or little need/concern for return, if you cannot build a hotel that will open in early stages of a cycle recovery, you probably should not build it. The second or third investor in the property will have a higher likelihood of success (from a return perspective). Hospitality sector typically leads into the recession, lags coming out (though bounced backed quickly this time). Hotels Investments: . Are Highly Cyclical . Utilize Operating Leverage (which is perfect of upturns, though rapidly erodes profit during downturns) . Highly vulnerable to factors outside of our control (terrorism, airline strikes, oil spills, etc) . Require extensive human capital . Require high levels of capital reinvestment – or ultimately face obsolescence . Readily available construction financing generally means a top is fast approaching. Cap rates are the inverse of what they should be. Greater Fool Theory – Don’t be the greater Fool. Leverage over 65% LTV is a high-risk proposition for hotels. Asset Vs. Operating Considerations Asset Operating Age & Condition of Property Revenue, sources of revenue, revenue mix Capex Business mix and seasonality of business Barriers to competitions, zoning and building codes, Expenses and other land value considerations Margin Performance Existing and potential functional obsolescence issues Volatility of Cash Flow Insurance coverage and taxation Operating Leverage Regulatory issues Performance versus financial barometers What if Bought/Developed here, where prospects were “modestly good?” What do we do now? What if Bought/Developed here, when prospects were “Poor”? Total United States – Average Duration (PrePlanning to Open) Luxury 70 Upper Upscale 58 Upscale 42 Months Upper Midscale 33 Midscale 33 Economy 30 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 Source: STR Total United States - Average Duration (Construction to Open) Luxury 25 Upper Upscale 25 Upscale 18 Months Upper Midscale 21 Midscale 17 Economy 16 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: STR Industry Snapshot PROPERTY/ROOM BREAKDOWN By Location Property* Rooms+ Urban 4,936 768,145 Suburban 17,763 1,759,476 Airport 2,286 314,159 Interstate 7,456 506,840 Resort 3,840 603,773 Small Metro/Town 16,606 974,150 53k properties* By Rate 5M guestrooms Under $30 245 25,805 $178 billion in sales $30-$44.99 3,280 252,508 $45-$59.99 8,271 537,009 $60-$85 14,873 1,058,655 Over $85 26,218 3,052,566 By Size Under 75 rooms 29,264 1,252,647 75-149 rooms 17,536 1,839,031 150-299 rooms 4,408 882,146 300-500 rooms 1,142 424,887 Over 500 rooms 537 527,832 What Matters… . A Lot: . Employment and Jobs . Personal Income . GDP . Somewhat: . Corporate Profits . Leading Economic Indicators . Not So Much: . Foreign Exchange Rates Economic Drivers of US Lodging Industry National & Regional 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real GDP, GPDI, & Metro GDP Real GDP 1.70% 2.20% 1.90% 2.40% 2.80% Total Employment CPI 3.20% 2.10% 2.0% 1.30% 0.50% Real Personal Income Corporate Profits 7.30% 5.90% 3.30% .5% 7.20% Disp. Personal Consumer Confidence Income 1.30% 1.60% 1.70% 2.50% 2.80% Specific MSA Drivers Unemployment Rate 8.50% 8.20% 6.70% 6.20% 5.30% Tracking Vs. Real GDP 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Real GDP (% Δ) Occupancy (% Δ) -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Source: STR, HVS . Gross Private Domestic Investment GDP & RevPAR Forecast 5% 0% -5% -10% Slowing of RevPAR growth rate does necessarily suggest the cycle is in imminent danger of ending.
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