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By Yao Li a Dissertation Submitted to Johns Hopkins University in Conformity with the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of P

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By Yao Li a Dissertation Submitted to Johns Hopkins University in Conformity with the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of P INFORMAL NORMS AND PROTEST SPACE: WHY THE CHINESE REGIME REMAINS STABLE DESPITE RISING PROTESTS by Yao Li A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland February 2015 © 2015 Yao Li All Rights Reserved Abstract Scholarship has tended to see that rising protests in authoritarian states signal the decline of a regime. China abounds with protest, but the regime’s hold on power and capacity for governing remains strong. Why does the Chinese regime remain resilient amid mounting social protests? In my research, I distinguish two types of protests: regime-engaging and regime-threatening protests. In regime-engaging protests, both the state and protesters accept the legitimacy of the other side and are open to negotiation; whereas in regime- threatening protests, both authorities and protesters reject the legitimacy of the other side and close the door to negotiation. The two kinds of protests are ideal types and a protest may move from one to the other. Yet the distinction matters: regime-engaging protests help maintain regime legitimacy and resilience, whereas regime-threatening protests undermine them. Based on an original dataset, I conducted binary and multinomial logistic regression analysis to show that regime-engaging protests are prevalent in China. Further, case studies demonstrate that in regime-engaging protests, informal norms of contention play a role in regulating actions of both authorities and protesters and promoting both sides to work on resolving conflicts through dialogue not force. By contrast, case studies of regime-threatening protests exhibit a vicious cycle of conflict escalation and pose a great challenge to the regime. The above investigation has relied on both quantitative analysis and in-depth case studies. I have generated and analyzed a dataset of 1,418 protest events in China from 2001 to 2012, the largest nationwide dataset on protests in China. I also conducted seven case ii studies of regime-engaging protests along with three cases of regime-threatening protests, relying on 18-month fieldwork and rich accounts from journalistic and academic sources. My dissertation contributes to explaining the resilience of the Chinese regime by showing how the regime is able to handle and contain protests. It helps deepen our understanding about complicated relationships between politics and resistance in authoritarian regimes. The conceptual model of regime-engaging and regime-threatening protests that I have developed can be employed to monitor the trajectory of political contention not only in China but also in other authoritarian regimes. Key words: informal norms, policing, social movements, regime resilience, authoritarian regimes. Committee: Joel Andreas (Chair), Ho-Fung Hung, Lingxin Hao, Erin Chung, and William Rowe iii Acknowledgments It is a great pleasure to acknowledge that many people have contributed to this research project. My dissertation would have been impossible without incredibly generous support from Joel Andreas, my advisor. As an extremely devoted mentor, Joel continually offered invaluable guidance and encouragement throughout this research. I am deeply indebted to him for his insightful advice and for reading numerous drafts and other works related to this research. Special thanks are due to Erin Chung for her thoughtful comments and constructive suggestions on several versions of this research and considerable encouragement. I am also grateful to Lingxin Hao, Ho-fung Hung, and William Rowe for their critical readings of the entire dissertation and providing expert advice on strengthening it. At various stages of the project, feedback from Rina Agarwala, Paul Y. Chang, Peggy Fan, Melissa Forbis, Giovanni Arrighi, Michael Levien, Melvin Kohn, Ray Madoff, Dana Moss, Stephan Plank, Woody Powell, Wayne Santoro, Evan Schofer, Rogers Smith, Beverly Silver, Chan S. Suh, Anne Thurston, Kellee Tsai, and Lu Zhang were extremely valuable. I have benefited considerably from tough questions and constructive suggestions from Erin’s writing seminars and I would like to thank Burak Gurel, Karyn Wang, James Flowers, Daisy Kim, Hirofumi Kawaguchi, Emily Mokros, Sansar Tsakhirmaa, Chunman Zhang, John Bandy, and Samson Lin. At the early stage of this project, I also learned tremendously from Giovanni and Beverly’s PGSC seminars. I thank Sahan Savas Karatasli for his excellent advice regarding data coding. Charlie Mitchell and Daniel Pasciuti’s invaluable comments on my quantitative chapter are iv especially appreciated. I am grateful to Burak Gurel, Sika Koudou, Anne-marie Livingstone, Mike Reese, and Nazish Zafar for their emotional, intellectual support and encouragement of my research. Thanks also go to Yin Yue and Shaohua Zhan for their advice on IRB application, the permit for conducing my fieldwork. I am thankful for feedback from participants and audiences at annual meetings of American Sociological Association, Eastern Sociological Society, and North American Chinese Sociologists Association, as well as seminars or workshops held at Columbia University, Stanford University, Stony Brook University, and University of Pennsylvania. Findings from the East Asian Studies, Department of Sociology, and PGSC at Johns Hopkins University are greatly appreciated. Special thanks go to friends of non-governmental organizations in China, who provided invaluable help in my fieldwork (I don’t mention their names to keep their privacy). I enjoyed the experience of doing interviews together with Wang Jingzhi (in January 2012), who was also doing doctorate research on anti-incineration protests. I am especially thankful to my interviewees, who took time to share their stories and views with me. I would like to express my gratitude to my husband Wu Huixuan, who is always keen on discussing my research and giving me inspirations. Huixuan’s unlimited patience and constant faith in me help ease the writing process. Finally, I am indebted to my parents, Yao Shuchun and Li Chensheng for giving me a loving family. I thank them for always respecting my choices and being supportive in my life. This dissertation is dedicated to them. v Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iv Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1 Introduction: Protests and Regime Stability................................................... 1 1.1 Formal Institutionalization of Contention and Regime Resilience ........................ 4 1.2 Informal Norms of Contention and Underenforcement of the Law ...................... 9 1.3 Categorizing Protests: Regime-Engaging vs. Regime-Threatening .................... 13 1.4 Explaining Regime Resilience in China .............................................................. 19 1.5 Overview of the Dissertation ............................................................................... 24 1.6 Broader Implications ............................................................................................ 26 Chapter 2 Mapping the Space for Protest ..................................................................... 28 2.1 Research Design: Methodology, Data, and Measurement ................................... 31 2.2 Estimation Techniques and Results ..................................................................... 61 2.3 Discussion ............................................................................................................ 75 Chapter 3 Regime-Engaging Economic Protests .......................................................... 83 3.1 Introducing Three Cases ...................................................................................... 84 3.2 Legitimating Protest Claims ................................................................................ 88 3.3 Protest Actions and Informal Norms ................................................................... 92 3.4 Enforcing the Limits on Protest Organization ................................................... 111 vi 3.5 Using Carrot and Stick to Maintain Regime Resilience .................................... 115 3.6 Handling “Contradictions among the People” ................................................... 120 3.7 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 132 Chapter 4 Regime-Engaging Environmental Protests ................................................ 134 4.1 Introducing Four cases ....................................................................................... 134 4.2 Legitimating Protest Claims .............................................................................. 143 4.3 Protest Actions and Self-Censorship ................................................................. 148 4.4 Enforcing the Limits on Protest Organization ................................................... 168 4.5 Authorities Emphasizing the Limits of Protest
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