Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of

Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan

MONTHLY REPORT DECEMBER 2014

Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014

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Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - December 2014

GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS In December 2014, the probability of weather emergencies is moderate, perhaps the heavy rains, snowfall and frost throughout the country. WEATHER Temperatures in December will be within the norm in Khatlon Province, in DRD and Western GBAO, 10 C above the long-term average in Sughd Province and 1-30 C above the long-term average in eastern GBAO. Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than normal in Khatlon Province and at lower elevations in DRD, more than normal in Sughd Province and higher elevations in DRD and GBAO. ENERGY SECURITY Electricity generation in November increased by 24.8 percent compared to October 2014. The water level in the Nurek reservoir in November was 4.93 meters lower than in October 2014. From October 1, 2014 the supply of electricity was limited across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the River and the need to fill the Nurek reservoir for winter. FOOD SECURITY In December, despite good regional food availability, wheat grain and wheat flour prices are expected to increase due to regional export prices in Tajikistan. The persistent depreciation of the national currency will put upward pressure on imported food and fuel prices. HEALTH The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season. MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES With the onset of cold weather, seasonal migration declined. In November the number of labor migrants was 47590 people, which is 21.6 percent less than in October 2014. ECONOMY The GDP totaled 36,325.0 million TJS (7,444.3 million USD) for January-October 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.7 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 6.1 percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.3 billion TJS (1,905.7 million USD) for ten months of 2014. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 9.1 billion TJS (1,864.9 million USD). In January-October 2014 foreign trade turnover was equal to 4,395.9 million USD, 8.1 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 812.0 million USD, and imports totaled 3,583.9 million USD.

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Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014

Contents 1. NATURAL HAZARDS ...... 4 1.1. Possible natural disasters in December 2014 ...... 4 1.2 Natural disasters in November 2014 ...... 5 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ...... 5 2.1. Forecast for December 2014...... 5 2.2. Weather summary for November 2014 ...... 5 3. ENERGY ...... 6 3.1. Electricity Generation ...... 6 3.2. Electricity Consumption ...... 7 3.3. Natural and liquefied gas ...... 7 3.4. Coal ...... 8 3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant Reservoir ...... 8 4. FOOD SECURITY ...... 9 4.1. Food Security Reports ...... 9 4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ...... 11 4.3. Fuel Prices ...... 12 5. HEALTH ...... 14 6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ...... 14 6.1. General trends ...... 14 6.2. Labor Migration of Population ...... 16 6.3. Employment ...... 17 6.4. Exchange Rate ...... 18 Annex A - Weather forecast for December 2014 ...... 19

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1. NATURAL HAZARDS

1.1. Possible natural disasters in December 2014

According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, the probability of an emergency caused by weather conditions is moderate in December 2014. Heavy rain snow and frost is possible throughout the country.

Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in December

2000-2013

Causes of Natural disasters Total

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 Flood 1 1 Rain 1 2 1 1 5

Wind 1 1 1 2 2 7 111 Earthquake 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 13

1 1 1 1 1 1 Landslide, rockfall, Mudflow 1 1 8

Flooding 1 1

Avalanche 1 1 3 3 2 1 11

Snowfall, frost 1 2 1 2 1 7

1 Glazed frost 1

Total 4 5 2 6 8 2 1 7 5 3 1 3 6 1 54

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1.2 Natural disasters in November 2014 IMAC/CoES reported that in November 2014 there was 1 natural disaster due to rockfall: On November 25, in Hushyory area of district due to the rockfall on the road was broken a car, 1 person killed, 1 wounded. For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in October 2014 contact the MEWS Center Working Group at: [email protected].

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 2.1. Forecast for December 2014. According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center, the average monthly temperature in November 2014 will be: Table 2. Average expected precipitation Within the norm in Khatlon Province, Direct – December 2014 г. Ruled Districts (DRD) and Western GBAO; Regions Precipitation Lower Khatlon 18-66 мм 1°C above the long term average in Sughd elevations Province Province; Foothills 77-92 мм 0 Lower 1-3 C above the long term average in the Gorno- 15-18 мм Sughd elevations Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) Province Higher 10-22 мм elevations Lower Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than 18-66 мм elevations DRD average in Khatlon Province and lower elevations of Higher 37-72мм DRD within the normal range, and in some places elevations West 26-52 мм GBAO more than the norm in Sughd Province and at the East 4-12 мм higher elevations of DRD and GBAO (See Annex A for a more detailed forecast for December 2014.)

2.2. Weather summary for November 2014 In November, the average monthly temperature at lower elevations and in the foothills areas was below normal at 1-20C, in the mountainous areas in the normal range and only on the East GBAO above normal was 2-40C. The temperature was: At lower elevations and in the foothills, from 3°C to 9°C; At higher elevations, from -1 to +50С (in Darvoz 7°C); At higher elevations of GBAO, from -7 to -90С. The highest temperatures were observed during November 1-4, 15-18 and 22 when the maximum temperature at the lower elevations of Khatlon and DRD increased to 18-230C; On November, 1-4 and 16 in Sughd Province, 15-190C; in mountainous areas, up to 9-140C above the long-term averages.

1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency of Tajikistan.

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The coldest periods were on November 6-8, 25 and 27, when after warm days throughout of country was observed cold air inflow, and temperature dropped to 5-100C at the lower elevations, and up to 0+50C at the lower elevations of Sughd Province. In clarifying the night at the lower elevations temperature dropped to -3 + 20C. The average daily temperature was below the long-term averages to 2-40C. Precipitation fell at lower elevations and in the foothills regions within 5-10 days (the norm 7-13 days), in the Table 3. Monthly Precipitation mountainous regions of 6-11 days (the norm 9-17 days). Regions Less than norm % Monthly precipitation was above the norm everywhere, Sughd Province 153-319% only in GBAO below the norm (see Table 3). Khatlon Province 168-321% The most intense precipitation fell in the country on DRD 130-141% November 3, 6, 27, when in twenty four hours the Western GBAO 22-81% amount of precipitation was from 20 to 33 mm. On EASTERN GBAO 8-124% November 6, 8 and 27 rain turned to snow in lower elevations. 3. ENERGY 3.1. Electricity Generation2 According to the information of OJHC “Barqi Tojik,” total electricity generation in November 2014 was 1,253 million kilowatt-hours (kW/h), or 41.2 million kW/h per day. Electricity generation in November increased by 21.2 percent (34.0 million kW/h) compared to October 2014. Electricity generation in November 2014 was 18.6 million kW/h less than in the same period of the last year (see Section 3.5 below). This is due to a reduction of electricity consumption by the Tajik Aluminum Company (TALCO). For more detailed information on electricity generation contact the MEWS Center at [email protected]. Total Electricity Generation – April 2010 – November 2014 (million kW/h)

2 Data on electricity generation and consumption is provided by the Monitoring and Early Warning System (MEWS) Expert from Barqi Tojik.

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3.2. Electricity Consumption The following table shows the average daily electricity consumption by major regions of Tajikistan and by the Tajik Aluminum Company (TALCO), the largest commercial consumer. Total electricity consumption in November 2014 reached 1,198 million kW/h, 19.1 % more than in October 2014. In November 2014 electricity consumption was 22.4 million kW/h less than the same period of 2013. In November 2014 the 220 kW and 110 kW networks from Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2 hydroelectric plants transmitted 55.5 million kW/h of electricity to Afghanistan, 10.5 million kW/h less than in the same period of the previous year and 4.4 % of the total amount of electricity generated in Tajikistan. From October 1, 2014 there was a limit on the supply of electricity across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and the need to fill the Nurek Reservoir for winter. Last year a restriction on the supply of electricity was imposed from November 1, 2014. For more detailed information on electricity consumption contact the MEWS Center at: [email protected] Total Average daily Electricity Consumption, April 2010-November 2014 (million kW/h)

3.3. Natural and liquefied gas The supply of natural gas to the Republic of Tajikistan was suspended in connection with completion of the contract with the Republic of Uzbekistan in December 2012. Tajikistan receives deliveries of liquefied gas by road and rail. According to the operational data of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan, from January to November 2014 enterprises registered with the Ministry imported 204.904 tons of liquefied gas, mostly from the Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Turkmenistan and the Russian Federation. Imports amounted to 12.687 tons more than during the same period of 2013. In November 2014 liquefied gas imports were 18.152 tons, which is 36.0 tons less than in November of the previous year.

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More than 49 percent of the country's motor vehicles use liquefied gas as fuel because of the high price of gasoline. 3.4. Coal According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, 116.330 tons of coal was produced in November 2014, which is 18.901 tons more than in October 2014. For January-November 2014, 805.523 tons of coal were produced in Tajikistan—318.028 tons or 165.2 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. Coal production has increased due to the commissioning of the first unit of the “-2” thermal power plant and a shift of the country’s industrial enterprises from more expensive natural gas and electricity to more economical coal for heating and other needs (e.g., for processing coal into gas for TALCO activities). 3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant Reservoir3 The Water Volume – Nurek HPP chart below shows the volume of the water in the Nurek Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir at the end of November 2014 compared to the average volume over the last nine years (2004 to 2013). At the end of November 2014, the water level in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 904.29 meters above sea level, which is 4.93 meters lower than in October 2014, 1.21 meters higher than in the same period in the previous year, and 47.29 meters above the “dead level” (inactive storage) (857 meters). In November 2014, average monthly inflow from the Vakhsh River was 254 m3/sec, 6.3 percent less compared to the same period of the last year. Water Volume – Nurek HPP (million m3)

The Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below shows water inflow into the Nurek HPP. At the end of November 2014, the water inflow was 233 m3/sec, which is 11.9 m3/sec above the average of 244.9 m3/sec for 2004-2013.

3 Data obtained from OJHC “Barqi Tojik”

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Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

As indicated in the Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below, the average water discharge from the Nurek HPP reservoir at the end of November 2014 amounted to 451m3/sec, which is lower than the 9-year-old average of 494.7 m3/sec. Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

4. FOOD SECURITY 4.1. Food Security Reports According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of RT, the most important imported food products are grain and flour. During January-October 2014, 604.9 thousand tons of grain at an average price of 299 USD per ton and 144.8 thousand tons of flour at an average price of 411 USD per ton were imported into the Republic, which is 20.6 percent more grain and 18.7 percent less flour compared to the same period of the previous year.

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In November 2014 the prices of wheat flour increased insignificantly in comparison with October 2014. As of December 5, 2014, the average price of one 50-kilogram bag of domestically-produced first grade flour was 153.0 TJS (30.0 USD). The average in October was 144.5 TJS (28.8 USD). The price of first grade flour produced in Kazakhstan was 161.5 TJS (31.7 USD) in Dushanbe markets, the average in October was 153.13 TJS (30.6 USD). In January-October 2014, the average price of imported oil products was 868 USD per ton, a fall of 17 percent compared to January-October of the previous year. During this period 477.6 thousand tons of oil products were imported into the Republic, 174.8 thousand tons more than in the last year. Those imports included 201.6 thousand tons of diesel fuel imported at an average price of 852 USD per ton and 206.7 thousand tons of gasoline at an average price of 780 USD per ton. For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected]. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan, this year grain was sown on 309,738 hectares (ha) of land. As of December 1, 2014, the grain harvest was 1285.4 thousand tons (5.2 percent less than for the same period of the previous year). The average yield per hectare was 2.67 tons, 0.05 tons more than for the same period of the previous year. The grain harvest was 621.861 tons, 23.224 tons less than for the same period of the previous year. The average yield per hectare was 2.95 tons, 0.04 tons more than for the same period of the previous year. For the period until December 10, arable work on 270.160 ha, 35.809 ha more than in the same period of the previous year and 44.6 percent of the forecast area. For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected].

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network for October (FEWS NET) PRICE WATCH: Food Commodity Prices for October reported: Wheat grain production estimates for 2014 in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest producer and exporter, are slightly below their respective 2013 and five-year average levels (FAO). Wheat export prices there have been stable since June, ahead of harvests in mid-August. Export prices remain similar to their respective 2013 level, but above the five-year average. Tajikistan: In October, wheat harvests were complete in the country’s lowlands and higher-elevation areas. Harvests estimates are currently slightly lower than their respective 2013 levels. Imported wheat flour prices (mostly from Kazakhstan) were stable in October and comparable to their respective 2013 and five-year average levels. This is despite the gradual depreciation of the Somoni since the beginning of 2014. Potato prices increased in October after declining drastically between May and July due to increased availability from recent and ongoing local harvests, as well as those in other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Prices above their respective 2013 levels in Tajikistan, due to the lingering effects of regional potato production shortfalls last year.

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Outlook: The current FAO wheat harvest outlook is Kazakhstan is estimated at just over 13.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2014/2015 marketing year. Despite some concerns about rainfall levels and distribution earlier in the production season, average wheat harvests are expected in the northern major wheat-producing areas. Export volumes estimates for the 2014/15 marketing year have been revised downwards due to slightly below average production and high export volumes during the previous marketing year. Indeed, export projections are now 15 percent lower than their respective near-average 2013 levels (FAO). Although regional food availability is expected to be adequate, wheat grain and flour prices are expected to increase in Tajikistan due to increased regional export prices and increase seasonal demand for stockpiling ahead of the winter months. The persistent depreciation of local currencies will put upward pressure on imported food and fuel prices. The full FEWS NET report is available at: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MONTHLY%20PRICE%20WATCH_A ND_ANNEX_NOVEMBER2014_0_0.pdf

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices4 First Grade Wheat Flour The chart below shows prices for first grade wheat flour in Dushanbe, Khujand, and Kurgan-Tyube markets from January 2008 to late November 2014. In November 2014 a slight increase in wheat flour prices was observed in Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan- Tyube markets in comparison with October. First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – November 2014 (TJS/kg)

4 Food and fuel prices are from UN WFP Food Security Weekly Market Monitoring, Tajikistan http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

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The chart below provides prices for first grade wheat flour in two large regional markets in Gharm and Khorog and the average prices for Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. In November 2014, a slight increase in wheat flour prices was observed in Khorog and Gharm. First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in Gharm, Khorog, and the average in three main markets for January 2008 – November 2014 (TJS/kg)

4.3. Fuel Prices In November 2014 an increase in petrol prices was observed in Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube markets, and diesel prices increased in Dushanbe markets, remained unchanged in Khujand. Prices decreased slightly in Kurgan-Tyube markets.

Petrol Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – November 2014 (TJS/liter)

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Diesel Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – November 2014 (TJS/liter)

5. HEALTH According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of RT, as of December 11, 2014, the epidemiological situation and trends on major notifiable infectious diseases are relatively good. Compared to the same period of 2013, are :

. a comparative decline in Table 4. Statistical data on the epidemiological situation for January- the number of cases of November 2014 in comparison with the same period of the last year intestinal infections and Change # Name of disease 2013 2014 water-borne diseases, (-), (+) including acute intestinal 1 Typhoid Fever 135 73 -62 infections; 2 Acute intestinal 55951 46221 -9730 infections . a comparative reduction 3 Dysentery 1143 993 -150 in the number of cases of Typhoid fever; 4 Brucellosis 784 833 +49 5 Pertussis 2 4 +2 . a reduction in the number of viral hepatitis cases; 6 Anthrax 31 33 +2 7 Bites and Saliva Contact 13092 13123 +31 . a reduction in the number of cases of acute respiratory 8 Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever 5 14 +9 viral infections; (CCHF) . a comparative increase in 9 Tuberculosis 4123 3178 -945 the number of cases of 10 Acute respiratory 213058 205542 -7516 Brucellosis; infections

. a comparative increase in 11 Flu 13658 4127 -9531 the number of cases of Pertussis; . a comparative increase in the number of cases of Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF);

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. a comparative increase in the number of cases of the bites of wild and domestic animals; . a comparative increase in the number of cases of anthrax. With the beginning of the cold season, the risk of acute respiratory viral infections— including the flu—increases. For other infectious diseases the epidemiological situation is assessed as auspicious.

Table 5. Expected risks in December 2014 and recommended appropriate measures Expected risks Recommended appropriate measures The risk of rising incidence of acute Avoid close contact with people who have fever respiratory viral infections is possible and and cough. remains high due to the onset of cold Avoid crowded places or reduce time spent in weather. Also, the favorable climatic crowded places. conditions of the autumn-winter season can Practice proper hygiene - wash hands frequently contribute to this. with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, especially when touching mouth and nose. Increase the flow of fresh air into the home, and open windows as often as possible (ventilate). Use a protective mask when in contact with a sick person. Maintain a healthy lifestyle: good sleep, balanced nutrition, physical activity, regular walks, fresh air and exercise. The possibility of food poisoning. Maintain proper storage and transportation conditions of perishable foods. Be attentive to homemade canned food and follow specialists’ recommendations for proper use. According to official statistics from the State Strengthen the epidemiological control system and Veterinary Supervision Service, there has veterinary supervision. Establish maintenance of been an increase in the incidence of animals. Early detection and treatment of sick brucellosis among animals, which in turn animals. contributes to the growth of infection among the population contracting brucellosis from animals. Due to the fact that there is no registration, Strengthen control on the registration, certification certification, and regular vaccination of dogs and vaccination of domestic animals. If there is a (even in the capital city of the country) by violation of the rules of keeping animals (especially the Office of the State Veterinary dogs), bring the animals’ owners to account. Supervision, the risk of mortality from rabies remains high.

6. ECONOMIC TRENDS 6.1. General trends National economic development remained stable and economic growth continued to increase over the past ten months of the current year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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of the Republic increased by 6.7 percent compared to the same period of 2013 and amounted to 36,325.0 million TJS (7,444.3 million USD). The growth rate of GDP compared to the corresponding period of 2013 decreased by 0.7 percent. During the first ten months of 2014, industrial enterprises produced goods worth 8,217.9 million TJS (1,684.0 million USD), 5.7 percent more than in the same period of 2013. Growth in industrial production in January-October 2014, compared with the same period of 2013, is due to the significant growth in: mining industries – 26.7 percent, manufacturing – 1.2 percent, and the production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water – 10.3 percent. The mining industry’s share of industrial output was 14.1 percent, the manufacturing sector’s share (food, textile, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries) was 64.9 percent, and the share of the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water supply remained 21.0 percent. The volume of gross agricultural output (in all types of farms) in January-September of 2014 increased by 2.2 percent compared to the same period last year. 94.0 percent of agricultural output is in the private sector. Gross agricultural product in the reporting period amounted to 17,018.5 million TJS (3,487.4 million USD), including crop production—12,495.5 million TJS (2,560.6 million USD), or 0.3 percent more, and livestock—4,523.0 million TJS (926.8 million USD), or 8.5 percent more. For the first ten months of 2014, investments in fixed capital from all sources of finance were 5,521.2 million TJS or 1,131.4 million USD, 29.0 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. From January to October of 2014, investments amounting to 2,754.8 million TJS (564.5 million USD) (or 49.9 percent) were made in production facilities. Investments amounting to 2,766.4 million TJS (566.9 million USD), or 50.1 percent of total investment in the country, were made in non-production facilities. Most investments, 43.9 percent, were made in the public sector. The private sector accounted for 27.6 percent, joint ventures accounted for 8.5 percent, and foreign ownership accounted for 20.0 percent. In the construction of energy facilities, investment amounted to 939.2 million TJS (207.6 million USD), 33.4 percent more compared with the same period of the previous year. For the first ten months of the current year, the inflation rate in the consumer sector amounted to 6.1 percent in comparison with December 2013. The main contributors to inflation were food products—7.7 percent, paid services—6.8 percent, and non-food products—2.5 percent. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, for the first ten months of 2014 the total State budget amounted to 10,471.5 million TJS (2,145.8 million USD), or 29 percent of GDP. The total volume of credit balances for the first nine months of 2014 amounted to 9.3 billion TJS (1,905.7 million USD). Compared with the same time of the previous year, it increased by 31.5 percent. The positive trend of lending is due mainly to increasing

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balances of loans in national currency by 31.5 percent. The volume of loans to economic sectors for this period amounted to 9.1 billion TJS (1,864.6 million USD), increasing by 27.1 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. The volume of repaid loans reached 7.3 billion TJS (1,495.9 million USD), which is 80.8 percent of the total issued credits for this period. The development of microcredit throughout the country, especially in remote mountainous regions, continues to be a priority. The country’s banking system is doing everything possible to implement this national priority. As of the end of October 2014, microloans totaled 4.2 billion TJS (860.6 million USD), increasing by 37.9 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. Microloans of 939.0 million TJS (192.4 million USD) were made in remote high-altitude regions of the country, 26.6 percent more than in the same period of 2013.

Total volume of credits and loans

*-data for 01.12.2014

For January-October 2014, foreign trade turnover amounted to 4,395.9 million USD, increasing by 8.1 percent compared to the same period of 2013. Goods exports amounted to 812.0 million USD. Imports amounted to 3,583.9 million USD. Negative balance of foreign trade turnover totaled 2,771.9 million USD. 6.2. Labor Migration of Population According to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, in January-November 2014, a total of 784,590 persons left Tajikistan, 13.6 percent less than in the same period of 2013. 532,643 persons returned to the country. In November, the number of labor migrants was 47,590 persons, which is 21.6 percent less than in October. The reduction in labor migration in November is due to the cold weather, entrance into the Russian Federation on International Passports (as of January 1, 2015), and due to amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants from foreign countries.

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The Monthly Labor Migration Outside of Tajikistan for 2009 - 2014 chart below provides a year-to-year summary of annual out-migration numbers from 2009 to 2014.

The Total Labor Migration for 2009-2014 chart below indicates that the total level of labor migration in 2014 is below the level of labor migration in the same period of 2013.

6.3. Employment According to the Agency of Labor and Employment Department of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, 105,024 citizens applied to the Agency for help in the first eleven months of 2014. Of this total, 67,651 individuals were registered as job seekers, and 47,952 individuals were recognized as officially unemployed. For the first eleven months of this year, 36,211 people were provided with jobs with the assistance of the employment services, which is 34.5 percent of the total number of all citizens who applied. The main reasons for providing a limited number of people with jobs were that the majority of the unemployed did not have the necessary technical training or had lost skills due to prolonged unemployment, as well as the low level of wages offered by employers.

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During January-November 2014, unemployment benefits totaling 3,264 thousand TJS (668.8 thousand USD) were paid to 6,133people. As of December 1, 2014, a total of 85,399 persons were registered with the Agency as looking for work, including 57,293 registered as unemployed and including those persons remaining from 2013. During the first eleven months of 2014, 17,628 people were sent to vocational training, 4,555 people were provided with social-paid jobs, and 3,505 people were provided with soft loans to start their own businesses. According to the State Agency for Social Protection, Employment, and Migration of RT, during the first eleven months of 2014, 225,278 new jobs were created, which is 16.5 percent more than in the same period of the previous year (193,451). 6.4. Exchange Rate The chart below shows both the official National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) exchange rate and unofficial (market) exchange rate monitored weekly by the UN WFP. The NBT rate for December 1, 2014, increased and was 5.08 TJS per one USD. The UN WFP reported an average market exchange rate of 5.28 TJS per one USD for the five main markets in Tajikistan on December 1, 2014. Exchange Rate of Tajik Somoni (TJS) against US Dollar, June 2007 – November 2014

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Annex A - Weather forecast for December 2014 Khatlon Province and Lower Elevations of Direct Rule Districts (DRD) The average monthly air temperature is expected to be within the norm and will be from 4 to 50С at lower elevations and 2 to 30С in the foothills. During December a heat wave is expected at lower elevations, with temperatures from 1-60C to -1+40C at night, and from 13-18 to 6-110C in the afternoon. In the foothills, the temperature will be from 0-50C to -2+30С at night and from 10-150С to 4-90С in the afternoon. The most significant decrease in air temperature is expected in the third decade of the month: at lower elevations, - 2+30С in the afternoon, -2-70С at night; in the foothills, -3+20С in the afternoon, -4-90С at night. Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: at lower elevations, 18 to 66 mm; in the foothills, 77 to 92 mm.) On some days, western winds may to increase up to 17-22 m/sec, fog is also expected.

Sughd Province The monthly average temperature is expected to be 10C above the normal range and will be from 1 to 30С at lower elevations and -1 to 30С at higher elevations. During December a heat wave is expected at lower elevations, with temperatures from -1+40С to -4+10С at night and from 9-140С tо 3-80С in the afternoon. In mountains, the temperature will be from 0-50С to -3-80С at night and -2 -70C to -3+20С in the afternoon. The most significant decrease in air temperature in the third decade of the month is expected at lower elevations, with temperatures from -2+30С in the afternoon and -2 to 7°C at night. In the mountains, the temperature will be 0 to -50C in the afternoon and -6 to -110C at night. In the remaining days the temperature is expected to be: at lower elevations, 12 to 170C in the afternoon, 0 to 50C at night; in the mountains, 7-120C in the afternoon, -3 to 20C at night. Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: at lower elevations, 15 to 18 mm; in the foothills, 10 to 22 mm.) On some days, western winds may to increase up to 87-23 m/sec, fog can also be expected.

Higher Elevations of DRD and Western Regions of GBAO The monthly average temperature is expected to be 1-20C above the normal range and will be -1 to -30C. The warmest weather is expected in the first half of the month, when the air temperature at night is expected to be from -3 to + 20C and from +5 to -100C in the afternoon. In the second half of the month decrease in air temperature is expected at night to 0-50C, in some places to -4-90C, 2-70C in the afternoon, in some places up to 1 +

19 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014

40C. The most significant decrease in temperature is expected in the third decade of the month when the temperature decreases from -4-90C at night, in some places up to -10- 150C, -2+30C in the afternoon, in some places 0-50C. Monthly precipitation is expected to be above the norm (norm: in Western Regions of GBAO 26 to 52 mm; Higher Elevations of DRD 37 to 72mm.)

Eastern Regions of GBAO Monthly average temperature is expected to be 1-30C above the norm and will be from -12 to -190C. In the first decade of the month is expected, the temperature will be -12 to - 170C at night (-20 to -250C in Bulunkul) and 0 to -50C in the afternoon (-6 to -110C in Bulunkul). In the second decade of the month, the temperature is expected from -17 to - 220C at night (-30 to -350C in Bulunkul) and from -6 to -110C in the afternoon. The most significant decrease in temperature at the end of the month is expected from -23 to -280C at night (-37 to -420C in Bulunkul) and from -10 to -150 C in the afternoon (-15 to -200C in Bulunkul). Monthly precipitation is expected to be above the norm (norm: 4-12 mm.)

20 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014

The aim of the Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and Early Warning (MEW) Reports is to provide regular information and succinct analysis on the evolution of natural, economic, food, energy and other risk factors in Tajikistan. Data and information in this report are provided by different sources and compiled by Group of Experts of Government organizations and institutions of the MEW Center (MEWS) under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) of RT with the support of UNDP and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tajikistan. MEWS at MEDT was created in conjunction with the United Nations Development Program in Tajikistan in 2010. The members of the MEWS Working group include the following organizations and institutions: Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, RT Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, RT Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, RT Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Population, RT Ministry of Health and Social protection of population, RT Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan Agency on statistics under President of RT Main Department of Geology under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan National Bank of Tajikistan Migration service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and population employment of RT OJHC «Barqi Tojik» OJSC «Tajiktransgaz» Hydrometeorology Government institution Agency of Labor and Employment Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan The Monitoring and Early Warning Center at the MEDT is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of data provided by external sources or analysis based on these data.

Contact information:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Tajikistan 37 Bokhtar, 2nd floor, office #225, Dushanbe 734002 e-mail: [email protected] Tel. (992 37) 223-06-96

Report is available on the website: http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/ and http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

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