Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan MONTHLY REPORT DECEMBER 2014 Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014 1 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - December 2014 GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS In December 2014, the probability of weather emergencies is moderate, perhaps the heavy rains, snowfall and frost throughout the country. WEATHER Temperatures in December will be within the norm in Khatlon Province, in DRD and Western GBAO, 10 C above the long-term average in Sughd Province and 1-30 C above the long-term average in eastern GBAO. Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than normal in Khatlon Province and at lower elevations in DRD, more than normal in Sughd Province and higher elevations in DRD and GBAO. ENERGY SECURITY Electricity generation in November increased by 24.8 percent compared to October 2014. The water level in the Nurek reservoir in November was 4.93 meters lower than in October 2014. From October 1, 2014 the supply of electricity was limited across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and the need to fill the Nurek reservoir for winter. FOOD SECURITY In December, despite good regional food availability, wheat grain and wheat flour prices are expected to increase due to regional export prices in Tajikistan. The persistent depreciation of the national currency will put upward pressure on imported food and fuel prices. HEALTH The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season. MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES With the onset of cold weather, seasonal migration declined. In November the number of labor migrants was 47590 people, which is 21.6 percent less than in October 2014. ECONOMY The GDP totaled 36,325.0 million TJS (7,444.3 million USD) for January-October 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.7 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 6.1 percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.3 billion TJS (1,905.7 million USD) for ten months of 2014. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 9.1 billion TJS (1,864.9 million USD). In January-October 2014 foreign trade turnover was equal to 4,395.9 million USD, 8.1 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 812.0 million USD, and imports totaled 3,583.9 million USD. 2 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014 Contents 1. NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................. 4 1.1. Possible natural disasters in December 2014 ...................................................................... 4 1.2 Natural disasters in November 2014 ......................................................................................... 5 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Forecast for December 2014. ............................................................................................... 5 2.2. Weather summary for November 2014 ................................................................................ 5 3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1. Electricity Generation ........................................................................................................... 6 3.2. Electricity Consumption ........................................................................................................ 7 3.3. Natural and liquefied gas ...................................................................................................... 7 3.4. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 8 3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant Reservoir ........................................................ 8 4. FOOD SECURITY ....................................................................................................................... 9 4.1. Food Security Reports .......................................................................................................... 9 4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ............................................................................................................. 11 4.3. Fuel Prices .......................................................................................................................... 12 5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 14 6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 14 6.1. General trends .................................................................................................................... 14 6.2. Labor Migration of Population ............................................................................................ 16 6.3. Employment ........................................................................................................................ 17 6.4. Exchange Rate ................................................................................................................... 18 Annex A - Weather forecast for December 2014 ............................................................................... 19 3 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014 1. NATURAL HAZARDS 1.1. Possible natural disasters in December 2014 According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, the probability of an emergency caused by weather conditions is moderate in December 2014. Heavy rain snow and frost is possible throughout the country. Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in December 2000-2013 Causes of Natural disasters Total 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 Flood 1 1 Rain 1 2 1 1 5 Wind 1 1 1 2 2 7 111 Earthquake 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 13 1 1 1 1 1 1 Landslide, rockfall, Mudflow 1 1 8 Flooding 1 1 Avalanche 1 1 3 3 2 1 11 Snowfall, frost 1 2 1 2 1 7 1 Glazed frost 1 Total 4 5 2 6 8 2 1 7 5 3 1 3 6 1 54 4 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014 1.2 Natural disasters in November 2014 IMAC/CoES reported that in November 2014 there was 1 natural disaster due to rockfall: On November 25, in Hushyory area of Varzob district due to the rockfall on the road was broken a car, 1 person killed, 1 wounded. For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in October 2014 contact the MEWS Center Working Group at: [email protected]. 2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 2.1. Forecast for December 2014. According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center, the average monthly temperature in November 2014 will be: Table 2. Average expected precipitation Within the norm in Khatlon Province, Direct – December 2014 г. Ruled Districts (DRD) and Western GBAO; Regions Precipitation Lower Khatlon 18-66 мм 1°C above the long term average in Sughd elevations Province Province; Foothills 77-92 мм 0 Lower 1-3 C above the long term average in the Gorno- 15-18 мм Sughd elevations Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) Province Higher 10-22 мм elevations Lower Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than 18-66 мм elevations DRD average in Khatlon Province and lower elevations of Higher 37-72мм DRD within the normal range, and in some places elevations West 26-52 мм GBAO more than the norm in Sughd Province and at the East 4-12 мм higher elevations of DRD and GBAO (See Annex A for a more detailed forecast for December 2014.) 2.2. Weather summary for November 2014 In November, the average monthly temperature at lower elevations and in the foothills areas was below normal at 1-20C, in the mountainous areas in the normal range and only on the East GBAO above normal was 2-40C. The temperature was: At lower elevations and in the foothills, from 3°C to 9°C; At higher elevations, from -1 to +50С (in Darvoz 7°C); At higher elevations of GBAO, from -7 to -90С. The highest temperatures were observed during November 1-4, 15-18 and 22 when the maximum temperature at the lower elevations of Khatlon and DRD increased to 18-230C; On November, 1-4 and 16 in Sughd Province, 15-190C; in mountainous areas, up to 9-140C above the long-term averages. 1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency of Tajikistan. 5 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – December 2014 The coldest periods were on November 6-8, 25 and 27, when after warm days throughout of country was observed cold air inflow, and temperature dropped to 5-100C at the lower elevations, and up to 0+50C at the lower elevations of Sughd Province. In clarifying the night at the lower elevations temperature dropped to -3 + 20C. The average daily