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MAP Technical Reports Series No. 98 UNEP MEDITERRANEAN ACTION PLAN UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE ALBANIAN COAST IMPLICATIONS DU CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE POUR LA ZONE COTIERE D'ALBANIE Prepared by E. Demiraj (Coordinator) M. Bicja, E. Gjika, L. Gjiknuri, L. Gjoka Muçaj, F. Hoxha, P. Hoxha, S. Karadumi S. Kongoli, A. Mullaj, V. Mustaqi, A. Palluqi, E. Ruli, M. Selfo, A. Shehi, Q. Sino MAP Technical Reports Series No. 98 UNEP Athens, 1996 Note: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNEP concerning the legal status of any State, Territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of their frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in the papers of this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of UNEP. Note: Les appellations employées dans ce document et la présentation des données qui y figurent n'impliquent de la part du PNUE, aucune prise de position quant au statut juridique des états, territoires, villes ou zones, ou de leurs autorités, ni quant au tracé de leurs frontières ou limites. Les vues exprimées dans les articles de ce volume sont celles de leurs auteurs et ne représentent pas forcément les vues du PNUE. © 1996 United Nations Environment Programme P.O. Box 18019, Athens, Greece ISBN 92-807-1576-3 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UNEP would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from UNEP. For bibliographic purposes this volume may be cited as: UNEP: Implications of Climate Change for the Albanian Coast. MAP Technical Reports Series No. 98, UNEP, Athens, 1996. Pour des fins bibliographiques, citer le présent volume comme suit: PNUE: Implications du changement climatique pour la zone côtière d'Albanie. MAP Technical Reports Series No. 98, UNEP, Athens, 1996. This volume is the ninety-eighth issue of the Mediterranean Action Plan Technical Report Series. This series collects and disseminates selected scientific reports obtained through the implementation of the various MAP components: Pollution Monitoring and Research Programme (MED POL), Blue Plan, Priority Actions Programme, Specially Protected Areas, Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea, Environment Remote Sensing and Protection of Historic Sites. Ce volume constitue le quatre-vingt dix-huitième numéro de la série des Rapports techniques du Plan d'action pour la Méditerranée. Cette série permettra de rassembler et de diffuser certains des rapports scientifiques établis dans le cadre de la mise en oeuvre des diverses composantes du PAM: Programme de surveillance continue et de recherche en matière de pollution (MED POL), Plan Bleu, Programme d'actions prioritaires, Aires spécialement protégées, Centre régional méditerranéen pour l'intervention d'urgence contre la pollution marine accidentelle, Centre méditerranéen de télédétection et Protection des sites historiques. - i - CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background ...................................................... 4 1.2 Basic facts about the Albanian coast .................................. 6 1.2.1 Geographical position and population ........................... 6 1.2.2 Relief .................................................... 6 1.2.3 Climate .................................................. 7 1.2.4 Rivers and lakes ........................................... 7 1.2.5 Specially protected areas .................................... 7 1.2.6 Rare, endangered and endemic species ........................ 7 1.2.7 Sites of historic interest ..................................... 9 1.2.8 Agriculture ................................................ 9 1.2.9 Industry .................................................. 9 1.2.10 Tourism ................................................. 10 1.2.11 Energy .................................................. 10 1.2.12 Present state of the economy ............................... 11 1.2.13 Major environmental problems ............................... 11 1.3 Methodology and assumptions used in this study ....................... 12 1.4 Temperature and precipitation scenarios for Albania ..................... 15 2. IDENTIFICATION OF PRESENT SITUATION AND TRENDS 2.1 Climate ........................................................ 17 2.1.1 General features .......................................... 17 2.1.2 Atmospheric pressure ..................................... 17 2.1.3 Temperature ............................................. 18 2.1.4 Precipitation ............................................. 25 2.1.5 Winds .................................................. 32 2.1.6 Other meteorological parameters ............................. 35 2.1.7 Extraordinary events ....................................... 38 2.2 Lithosphere ..................................................... 41 2.2.1 Geology ................................................. 41 2.2.2 Soils ................................................... 45 2.3 Hydrosphere .................................................... 48 2.3.1 Surface water ............................................ 48 2.3.2 Marine water ............................................. 61 2.3.3 Ground water ............................................ 66 - ii - 2.4 Natural ecosystems .............................................. 69 2.4.1 Terrestrial ecosystems ..................................... 69 2.4.2 Fresh-water and delta ecosystems ........................... 73 2.4.3 Lagoon ecosystems ....................................... 74 2.4.4 Marine ecosystems ........................................ 75 2.5 Managed ecosystems ............................................. 77 2.5.1 Agriculture ............................................... 77 2.5.2 Fishery ................................................. 82 2.5.3 Aquaculture .............................................. 84 2.5.4 Forestry ................................................. 84 2.6 Energy and industry .............................................. 89 2.6.1 Energy .................................................. 89 2.6.2 Industry ................................................. 89 2.7 Tourism ........................................................ 91 2.8 Transport ....................................................... 93 2.8.1 Road Transport ........................................... 93 2.8.2 Rail Transport ............................................ 93 2.8.3 Maritime Transport and Harbours ............................. 94 2.8.4 Air Transport ............................................. 94 2.9 Sanitation and health aspects ....................................... 96 2.9.1 Sanitation ............................................... 96 2.9.2 Health aspects ........................................... 97 2.10 Population and settlements ........................................ 100 2.10.1 Population .............................................. 100 2.10.2 Settlements ............................................. 101 3. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL SYSTEMS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES 3.1 Climate ....................................................... 104 3.2 Lithosphere .................................................... 106 3.3 Hydrosphere ................................................... 107 3.3.1 Surface water ........................................... 107 3.3.2 Marine water ............................................ 107 3.3.3 Ground water ........................................... 108 3.4 Natural ecosystems ............................................. 109 - iii - 3.5 Managed ecosystems ............................................ 110 3.5.1 Agriculture .............................................. 110 3.5.2 Fisheries ............................................... 111 3.5.3 Aquaculture ............................................. 111 3.5.4 Forestry ................................................ 112 3.6 Energy and industry ............................................. 114 3.7 Tourism ....................................................... 115 3.8 Transport ...................................................... 115 3.9 Sanitation and health aspects ...................................... 116 3.10 Population and settlements ........................................ 116 4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTIONS 4.1 Suggested action to avoid, mitigate or adapt to the predicted effects ....... 118 4.1.1 Climate conditions ....................................... 118 4.1.2 Lithosphere ............................................. 118 4.1.3 Hydrosphere ............................................ 119 4.1.4 Natural ecosystems ...................................... 119 4.1.5 Managed ecosystems ..................................... 120 4.1.6 Energy and industry ...................................... 121 4.1.7 Tourism ................................................ 121 4.1.8 Transport ............................................... 122 4.1.9 Health and sanitation ...................................... 122 4.1.10 Population .............................................
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