Norwegian School of Economics Bergen, Spring 2015 Von Thünen on the Bybanen A spatial model of the commute in Bergen Félix Morency-Lavoie Supervisor: Gunnar S. Eskeland Master Thesis in Economics and Business Administration within the profile of Energy, Natural Resources and the Environment NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS This thesis was written as a part of the Master of Science in Economics and Business Administration at NHH. Please note that neither the institution nor the examiners are responsible − through the approval of this thesis − for the theories and methods used, or results and conclusions drawn in this work. 2 “I loved Thünen above all my other masters.” – Alfred Marshall 3 Abstract The spatial model presented in this thesis explains the existing structure of Bergen and foresees how the city could evolve with the development of the light rails network (Bybanen). Many researches and policies were aimed at discouraging the use of cars. The approach taken here is not to force conversion of present automobiles drivers into collective transport users, but to make sure new commuters will predominately choose more sustainable modes of transport in the future. The key aspect is the appropriate location of new dense residential developments. Monocentric “compactness” does not necessarily result in a higher energy efficient city. Considering that further densification of Bergen Sentrum is not a feasible political/physical option, a light rail networks could lead, accordingly to the least commuting principle, to a denser city along the Bybanen route. As a strong sustainable symbol and a serious financial commitment, the Bybanen has the potential transform expectations and attitudes. Ultimately the Bybanen is a proficient strategy that will reshape the city; an opportunity to reduce GHG emissions and increase the societal welfare through (green) mobility. Johannes von Thünen, the founder of spatial economics, has been a major direct and indirect inspiration in the construction of this model. A thorough reading of his magnum opus, The Isolated State, unearthed parts of his theories that have been either neglected or either entirely forgotten. For example the Thünian concept of land rent, which is more nuanced than the Ricardian Rent, can explain how a permanent infrastructure such as the Bybanen affects the structure of the city differently than an flexible bus network. This research led to the creation of a commuting model true to the spirit of von Thünen. In addition, important contributions of his successors in location theory, urban economics and New Economic Geography have complemented the model in order to address urban challenges of the 21st century. 4 Acknowledgments This fantastic journey would not have been possible without the inestimable help, influence, and inspiration of several great people to whom I am eternally grateful. I would like to especially thank Gunnar S. Eskeland, my supervisor, who has challenged my worldview like no one else through his teachings and our discussions, who has supported me in times of doubts, and who has set me on the trail of von Thünen in Bergen. Many Many thanks To Roger Bivand for his influence and feedback over the course of this research project. To Francine for the gift of curiosity, her lynx’s eye in proofreading, and support. To Louis for the gift of perseverance, and his encouragements. To Messieurs Francis, Frank, et Hok pour beaucoup. To Kim and her timely expert’s advices. To Isolde for her patience. To Tore, Vu, Sarah. Von Thünen Norway MC Special thoughts for my grandparents: For Mémé who taught me countless things including arithmetic. For Fernand whose stubborn refusal of the concept of inflation sparked my interest in economics. 5 Contents Contents ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................................... 4 CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 7 2. CHAPTER 1: JOHANN HEINRICH VON THÜNEN ......................................................... 10 2.1 BIOGRAPHY AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT ................................................................................. 13 2.2 MAIN CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMICS .................................................................................. 23 2.3 THEORY OF MONOCENTRIC AGRICULTURAL RINGS ................................................................. 27 2.3.2 Intensity Theory or the One-crop Case ....................................................................... 34 2.3.3 Crop Theory or the Multi-Crops Case ........................................................................ 34 2.3.4 Thünen vs Ricardo ...................................................................................................... 36 2.4 LIMITS, CRITICS AND RELEVANCE ......................................................................................... 39 2.4.2 Relevance Today ......................................................................................................... 45 3. CHAPTER 2: THE LEGACY OF VON THÜNEN .............................................................. 47 3.1 FROM WEBER TO LÖSCH ........................................................................................................ 47 3.2 THE RISE OF THE MONOCENTRIC CITY .................................................................................. 57 3.2.2 The Alonso-Mills-Muth Model (AMM) ....................................................................... 63 3.2.3 When is the Economy Monocentric? ........................................................................... 65 3.3 IN PRAISE OF SERVICE-CITIES ................................................................................................ 69 3.3.1 Inter- Vs Intra- City Transportation ........................................................................... 71 3.3.2 The Triumph of Compact Cities? ................................................................................ 72 3.4 COMMUTING: THE NEXT FRONTIER ........................................................................................ 73 4. CHAPTER 3: A VON THÜNEN MODEL OF THE COMMUTE ...................................... 74 6 4.1 BEHAVIORAL ASPECTS OF COMMUTING ................................................................................ 76 4.1.2 Time ............................................................................................................................ 79 4.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE TOWN .................................................................................................. 81 4.3 THE MODEL .......................................................................................................................... 87 4.3.1 Assumptions................................................................................................................ 87 4.3.2 The Model .................................................................................................................. 90 4.3.3 Transport Mode Theory ............................................................................................. 90 4.3.4 Intensity Theory or Residential Density ..................................................................... 95 4.3.5 Unification of the two theories ................................................................................... 99 4.3.6 Shaping the City ....................................................................................................... 100 4.4 EVIDENCES IN BERGEN ........................................................................................................ 104 4.4.2 Framtidens byer – Cities of the Future .................................................................... 106 5. CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 107 6. APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................ 111 6.1.1 Appendix I - Full Titles............................................................................................. 111 6.1.2 Appendix II – Von Thünen’s Publications and Translations .................................... 112 7. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 113 7 1. Introduction Climate Change is probably the biggest challenge facing humankind (Stern, 2006). Various forms of pollution are emanating alongside the economic development that has elevated the welfare and the possibilities of our civilization. Progress comes at a cost that is immaterial in the economic system. Invisible Greenhouse Gases (GHG) are threatening our planet’s ecosystems by modifying the climate faster than the adaptation capacity of living species including the ingenious humans who numerously agglomerate in their (natural) habitat: the cities. Cities are heterotrophic systems largely exceeding the carrying capacity of their bioregion (Newman & Jennings, 2008). Indeed, since the First Industrial Revolution, the most salient aspect of urbanization is the reliance on