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Poland on the New Silk Road Current State and Perspectives http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/8220-250-2.01 Poland on the New Silk Road Current state and perspectives Economics Poland on the New Silk Road Current state and perspectives Aleksandra Bartosiewicz Paulina Szterlik Aleksandra Bartosiewicz, Paulina Szterlik, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, Institute of Logistics and Informatics, Department of Operational Research ul. Rewolucji 1905 R. nr 41/43 90-214 Łódź REVIEWER Stanisław Iwan INITIATING EDITOR Beata Koźniewska PROOFREADING Agnieszka Świderek TYPESETTING AGENT PR COVER DESIGN Michał Olewnik © Copyright by Aleksandra Bartosiewicz, Paulina Szterlik, Łódź - Kraków 2020 © Copyright for this edition by Uniwersytet Łódzki, Łódź - Kraków 2020 © Copyright for this edition by AGENT PR, Łódź - Kraków 2020 Published by Łódź University Press First edition W.09797.20.0.K e-ISBN 978-83-8220-250-2 e-ISBN AGENT PR 978-83-64462-54-2 Łódź University Press 90-131 Łódź, Lindleya 8 www.wydawnictwo.uni.lodz.pl e-mail: [email protected] tel. (42) 665 58 63 Table of contents Introduction 7 Chapter 1 The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative 9 1.1. The Belt and Road Initiative as a global concept 9 1.2. A short history of the 17+1 idea 16 1.3. The main assumptions and goals of the undertaking 19 1.4. Sources of financing the investment projects under the Belt and Road Initiative 24 1.5. The global response to the Chinese concept 27 Chapter 2 The New Silk Road and the Sino-Polish relations 31 2.1. The Sino-Polish political relations after 1989 31 2.2. The Sino-Polish economic relations at the beginning of the 21st century 33 2.3. Poland as a key element of the New Silk Road 39 2.3.1. Łódź as an important point on the Polish section of the New Silk Road 41 2.3.2. Małaszewicze, a key border crossing for the Belt and Road Initiative 45 2.4. Poland’s role in the co-creation of the New Silk Road in scientific literature 47 Chapter 3 The European transport system and its impact on Poland’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative 49 3.1. The European Union transport policy 49 3.2. Poland in the European Union transport system 53 3.2.1. Rail and sea infrastructure in Poland 57 3.2.2. Poland’s investment strategies concerning the Trans-European Transport Network 64 Chapter 4 The impact of the New Silk Road on the rail and maritime logistics chains in Poland 69 4.1. The transport system as an element of supply chain competitiveness 69 4.2. The development and importance of land–sea supply chains in container transport 70 4.3. The Belt and Road in the rail and maritime transportation 73 4.4. The impact of the New Silk Road on the Polish logistics chains 77 4.4.1. The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on land supply chains 77 4.4.2. The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on maritime supply chains 81 6 Table of contents Chapter 5 The main determinants of further development of the New Silk Road 85 5.1. The political factors 85 5.2. The economic and social factors 88 5.2.1. The forecasts for the development of rail terminals in Poland 91 5.2.2. The forecasts for the development of sea terminals in Poland 92 5.2.3. The social factors and their place in the Belt and Road Initiative 94 5.3. The technological (infrastructural) factors 95 5.4. The future of the New Silk Road in Poland. Possible scenarios 96 5.4.1. The PEST and SWOT analysis of factors influencing the development of the New Silk Road 96 5.4.2. The environmental scenario analysis and its implementation into the Belt and Road Initiative 99 5.4.3. Final remarks 108 Conclusion 113 List of acronyms 117 List of figures 121 List of tables 123 References 125 Introduction Adjusting intermodal point and line infrastructure to new market challenges is necessitated by the changes which take place on international commodity markets, the growing trade, global technological progress, the extension of global supply chains and a gradual increase in the demand for maritime and rail transport. On the other hand, in the face of the economic slowdown, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is constantly looking for new economic ventures, striving to compete with other market participants of global supply chains. The reactivation of the concept of the old Silk Road (SR), the so-called New Silk Road (NSR) or the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), formerly also known as the One Belt, One Road (OBOR), is aimed at generating additional value in the logistics network. The BRI, an initiative attempting to create the shortest land connection between China and Western Europe, is to provide better transport and trade opportunities inside China (internal relations) and with its business partners (external relations), mainly from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Africa and Pacific Asia. In such a way, the NSR should contribute to the improvement of capital flows between those countries as well as to the internationalisation of Chinese enterprises. The network of connections, proposed as a necessary part of the BRI, considers the Republic of Poland (RP) to be a key country for the creation of the route. The convenient location of Poland in the centre of Europe predisposes it to be an active participant in the initiative and a transhipment hub for the BRI, which represents an opportunity for the country to both intensify trade with China and further develop Polish rail and maritime supply chains, thus bolstering Poland’s competitive position and continuously increasing the number of containers imported by land and sea. The proposed book provides an overview of China’s relations with Poland in the context of the NSR. It provides an attempt to describe the impact which the BRI has on the land and maritime supply chains in Poland. In addition, it endeavours to answer questions about the opportunities and threats resulting from Poland’s participation in the initiative as well as to assess its further development prospects. To this end, the publication analyses various documents and publications or press releases on mutual Sino-Polish relations, particularly data published in numerous industry reports, national development strategies until 2030 or the European 8 Introduction Union (EU) as well as local projects and statistics. It seems that the information collected can represent a valuable supplement to the existing research gap, as the issues described in the book have rarely been discussed by researchers of the Sino- Polish relations. An analysis of both Polish and foreign literature in the field of logistics, transport, economics and management made it possible to accomplish a theoretical and empirical study comprising five chapters. Chapter one is devoted to the general concept of the BRI, providing a short history of the idea, its main assumptions and goals as well as sources of investment project financing. Chapter two concentrates on the Sino-Polish economic and political relations and defines Poland’s role in the co-creation of the NSR. The European transport system and its impact on Poland’s participation in the BRI are outlined in the following chapter. This chapter also provides a description of rail and sea infrastructure in Poland as well as Poland’s investment strategies concerning the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T). Chapter four, in turn, is devoted to the impact of the NSR on the Polish logistics chains, especially rail and maritime logistics chains. The purpose of the fifth and the last chapter is to explore the possible impact of the BRI on the Polish economy and evaluate the future of the initiative in Poland. To this end, the Authors performed the scenario analysis on the basis of the PEST and SWOT analysis of the factors influencing the further development of the Chinese concept. Chapter 1 The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative 1.1. The Belt and Road Initiative as a global concept The dynamics of changes in global trade and the desire to invest in foreign markets have prompted the Chinese government to create a strategy of international expansion. Consequently, the Belt and Road Initiative has become an important element of the new Chinese global order, sometimes referred to as the Silk Global Order (SGO) (Sulmicki, 2018). The Going Global Plan (also known as the Go Out Policy) was inaugurated in 1999 and its main goal was to motivate Chinese enterprises to invest abroad. The first phase of the plan, i.e. Going Global 1.0, was launched in 2001 with the admission of the PRC to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It was developed during the so-called Hu-Wen New Administration, which refers to the years of the leadership of President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao (2002–2012). That period can be perceived as an attempt to ramp up the global image of the PRC by devising various soft-power strategies, such as China’s peaceful rise (2003) and China’s peaceful development (2004) in order to create a harmonious world, all of which are deeply rooted in the principles of Confucianism. The strategies were supposed to stand in opposition to American hegemony and to alleviate global concerns related to the intensification of China’s actions on the international arena (Walkowski, 2017). The main purpose of the first phase of global expansion was to (Luo, 2018): • gain control over the natural resources; • take over complete value chains and attempt to recreate their mechanisms in China; • become majority shareholders in foreign enterprises; • search for local political support.
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