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Chapter I Introduction CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research Overview The object of this research is the LQ-45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) because it is the most liquid index. According to Hartono LQ45 Index formed for most actively traded 45 stocks in IHSG. The sample period is divided into three periods which are before the phenomenon of Trade War (three days before July 6, 2018), at the moment (July 6, 2018) and after the phenomenon of Trade War (after July 6, 2018). The sample of this research consists of 26 companies that is consistent listed in LQ-45 for two periods (February 2018-July 2018; August 2018- January 2019) and didn’t do any dividend announcement. Table 1.1 Research Object No Company No Company No Company 1 ADHI – Adhi Karya Tbk. 10 BSDE – Bumi Serpong 19 PTPP – PP (Persero) Tbk. Damai Tbk 2 ADRO – Adro Energy 11 EXCL – XL Axiata Tbk. 20 SMGR – Semen Tbk. Indonesia Tbk. 3 ANTM – Aneka Tambang 12 HMSP – H.M. Sampoerna 21 SSMS – Sawit Tbk. Tbk. Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. 4 ASII – Astra International 13 ICBP – Indofood CBP 22 TLKM – Telekomunikasi Tbk. Sukses Makmur Tbk Indonesia Tbk. 5 BBCA – Bank Central 14 INCO – Vale Indonesia 23 TPIA – Chandra Asri Asia Tbk. Tbk. Petrochemical Tbk. 6 BBNI – Bank Negara 15 INDY – Indika Energy Tbk. 24 UNVR – Unilever Indonesia Indonesia Tbk. 7 BBRI - Bank Rakyat 16 JSMR – Jasa Marga Tbk. 25 WIKA – Wijaya Karya Indonesia Tbk. 8 BJBR – BPD Jabar Banten 17 LPPF – Matahari 26 WSBP – Waskita Beton Tbk. Departement Store Tbk. Precast Tbk. 9 BMRI – Bank Mandiri 18 PGAS – Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk. Source: Secondary Data Processed from LQ-45 Constituents for two periods of February 2018 - July 2018 and August 2018 - January 2019. 1 1.2. Research Background The capital market as one of the economic instruments is inseparable from the influence of the economic and non-economic environment. According to Altin (2015) the influence of the economic environment consists of the influence of the macro and micro economic environment, while the influence of non-economic environments such as war, political chaos, president election, ministerial cabinet announcements, and other events also influence stock price fluctuations. As the biggest economy in the world, the United States and China leads the economy world, as shown in Table 1.2 Table 1.2 World’s Biggest Economies Based on Data from IMF 2018 Source: Data Processed from www.weforum.org (2018) The powerful countries that listed in the Table 1.2 has a big role to control the world economy. Every regulation that implemented by these countries, especially the US and China, will influence many countries around the world, including Indonesia. According to M. Ayhan Kose, Csilla Lakatos, Franziska Ohnsorge and Marc Stocker writing for Vox EU, the growth of surge in the world’s largest 2 economy could influence global activity in a positive way, it could boost global activity. Unfortunately, the US policies could give a negative effect. According to an article on simplicable.com, the economic change is the restructure of economic system. There is example of economic change that relate with this research which is trade. The trade war as one of trade shift can results a sudden reduction in trade. The impact of trade war phenomenon on the Indonesian economy is the deceleration of economic growth challenge. According to the Chief Economist of Bank Mandiri, Andry Asmoro, published on an article of kata.co.id, there is challenge of 70 Indonesia’s export destination are slowing down, this will certainly be affecting commodity prices and the trade balance. Andry said that the U.S. and China are categorized as the big four of Indonesia’s export destination. If their contributions are combined, the Indonesia’s export reached approximately 25% of Indonesia’s total exports. Andry also said that “If the Chinese economy goes down 1%, the impact on Indonesia is around 0.09% to 0.1%. Meanwhile, if the US economy falls 1%, the impact on us is around 0.07-0.08%, " 3 Figure 1.1 Trade War Impact Negatively on Indonesia Exports Source: data processed by INDEF published on https://databoks.katadata.co.id/ As seen in the figure above the 2019 Institute for Development of Economic and Finance (INDEF) Mid-Year study said that the ongoing trade war between the two economic giants, the United States (US) and China, had an impact on the export performance of several countries. Indonesia is one of the countries affected by the negative trade war on exports, which is estimated to be minus 0.24% until the end of 2019. Besides Indonesia, exports of European countries are predicted to be minus 0.32, Japan minus 0.92%, Oceania will drop 0 , 62%, India fell 0.08%, and Africa fell 0.01%. On the other hand, the trade war did not really affect several countries, 4 such as Vietnam which is predicted to record a positive export growth of 2.58%. In addition, other countries that recorded positive impacts of the trade war in terms of exports were Malaysia which rose by 0.39%, Singapore by 0.53%, and Thailand by 0.23%. The relation of economic growth to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is the deceleration of economic growth will impact the slowing down of company revenue growth. According to Bahana Sekuritas, Lucky Ariesandi on kontan.co.id said that one of the sentiments that most affected the growth index was the company’s revenue received on the IDX. Unfortunately, the company’s revenue growth has slowed down due to deceleration of economic growth. The U.S and China trade war is one of the phenomena that impact the world economically. According to a U.S Economy expert and president of WorldMoneyWatch.com, Kimberly Amadeo writing on her article for thebalance.com, the implementation of tariffs is meant to protect the local industry, because it gives leverage for local manufacturers to have a lower price in contrast with the imported ones. However, tariffs implementation tends to trigger a trade war. In a long term, trade war resulting in depreciation even inflation for all countries involved. The trade war phenomenon also has an impact to the Asian stock market. According to an article written on kontan.co.id, the trajectory of the trade war between the United States (US) and China was beaten on July 6, 2018. This makes some indices in Asia become depressed in trading today. Asian market ever influenced by the trade war, Dean Napolitano, writing for Nikkei Asian Review, said that when there was a meeting in Argentina that attended by two president of the countries who are the perpetrator of trade war, declared a cease-fire. When this happen, Shanghai Composite Index increased for 2.6%, Shenzhen Composite Index increased for 3.3% and Hang Seng Hong Kong index increased for 2.6%. Trade war begins when the U.S began imposing tariffs on $34 billion in China goods, it triggers the trade war between those two most economic powerful countries. CNBC Indonesia, as one of the business channel television in Indonesia, 5 writing on its article, tells that IHSG decreasing 1.79% for a week that affected by trade war sentiment as shown in the figure 1.1. Figure 1.2 LQ-45 condition on same week that trade war begins Source: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com On July 6, Trump officially imposed an additional import duty of 25% for 818 Chinese products. China also retaliated by charging 25% for 659 US products. This mutual revenge action made the global economic situation even more uncertain. As a result, investors' concerns increased and caused the stock exchanges in the Asean region including Indonesia to fall. On the other hand, the threat of trade war began to approach Indonesia. Sofjan Wanandi, Chair of the Vice President Expert Team, who revealed Trump would revoke a number of special treatments currently being given to Indonesia. This threat seems to be a signal that must be responded to carefully. If Trump really imposes import tariffs on Indonesian products, then it will have a negative impact on the Indonesian stock market. The existence of a trade war has the potential to encourage the flow of hot money to Indonesia to recede. then it is not impossible that the IHSG will remain in the red zone in the future. Not enough from external, internal factors also become one of the causes of the Jakarta Composite Index to fall. Bank Indonesia (BI) projections that the current account 6 deficit in quarter II-2018 will widen. It is estimated that the current account deficit in that period amounted to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If this prediction is correct, then the deficit is greater than the quarter I-2018 which is only 2.15% of GDP. IHSG was again hit by sentiment from the release of foreign exchange reserves data as of June 2018. BI released Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves figures as of the end of June 2018 of US $ 119.8 billion. This figure dropped US $ 3.1 billion from the position at the end of May 2018. This decline was due to the central bank's efforts to stabilize domestic exchange rates. On the other hand, reduced foreign exchange reserves cannot be separated from Indonesia's poor trade performance. Data from the Central Statistics Agency as of May 2018, Indonesia experienced a trade deficit of around US $ 1.5 billion. This deficit also added to investor concerns. Because, just a week ago the flow of hot money that came out reached Rp 1.32 trillion.
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