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The Social Areas of Cincinnati An Analysis of Social Needs PATTERNSPATTER FOR FIVE CENSUS DECADESS Fifth Edition - 2013 Michael Maloney Christopher Auffrey School of Planning University of Cincinnati UnitedUnited WayWay | University of Cincinnati Community Research Collaborative April 23, 2013 Greater Cincinnati Community We are pleased to present the publication of The Social Areas of Cincinnati: An Analysis of Social Needs, Fifth Edition. The fi rst two editions, 1974 and 1986, were authored by Michael Maloney and published by the Cincinnati Human Relations Commission. The Third Edition, co-authored by Dr. Janet Buelow, was published by the School of Planning of the University of Cincinnati in 1997. The Fourth Edition was co-authored by Dr. Christophe Auffrey, also of the School of plan- ning and was published in 2004. This Fifth Edition updates the previous editions using data from the 2005-2009 American Commu- nity Survey. It shows how Cincinnati, its neighborhoods and its surrounding area have changed since 1970. This edition, for the fi rst time, goes beyond the 1970 7-county SMSA boundaries and includes some data for the 15-county Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area and the 20-Coun- ty region served by the Health Foundation of Greater Cincinnati. Although much of the report focuses on the City of Cincinnati, regional leaders will want to pay close attention to chapters 10 and 11 and the census tract tables included in these chapters and in the Appendix. The social areas maps (Figures 2, 13, 14 and 15) provide templates for plotting various variables such as crime, poverty, race, education, and unemployment. Local researchers have used this study as a framework in research on health needs, racial integration, and service disparities. Agencies have used the study as a needs assessment tool, in writing grant proposals, and in mak- ing decisions regarding target areas and facility locations. County leaders have used the social areas to plan allocation of community investments and antipoverty resources. Advocacy groups and neighborhood leaders have used the study to develop a case for services and public works projects. Neighborhood advocates and planners in Cincinnati should note that our studies use the 48 sta- tistical neighborhoods established by the City Planning Commission, not the 2010 SNA boundar- ies. The fact that the census tract is our basic unit of analysis helps ameliorate this problem for neighborhoods such as Pendleton and East Westwood. Readers are welcome to contact the authors for presentations, for advice on how to utilize this re- port in planning, proposal writing, or advocacy. Those who feel that the data in this report are in error or misinterpreted should contact the authors. Any serious errors will be corrected in future printings and in the online version which is available at www.socialareasofcincinnati.org. Michael Maloney and Christopher Auffrey with Eric Rademacher and John Besl i Social Areas of Cincinnati ii Acknowledgments Project Funding This project was supported by grants from United Way, the Greater Cincinnati Foundation, the Seasongood Good Government Foundation, and the Health Foundation of Greater Cincinnati. Supporting Organizations The Urban Appalachian Council provided grant administration and moral support. Special Thanks Dr. Eric Rademacher, Community Research Collaborative, Fund Raising; Dr. Robert Ludke, Uni- versity of Cincinnati, School of Health, Health Chapter Author; Dr. Phillip Obermiller, a visiting scholar at the University of Cincinnati School of Planning; and Dr. John Bryant, editorial review. Project Staff Project Staff Michael Maloney Author and Editor Michael Maloney, M. Ed., MRP Principal Investigator Christopher Auffrey, Ph.D School of Planning University of Cincinnati Maps, Statistical Analysis and Cover Design Venkata Krishna Kumar Matturi Project Advisors Eric Rademacher, Ph.D, Director Community Research Collaborative Toby Sallee, Community Research Collaborative John Besl, Children’s Hospital Medical Center Word Processing and Design Jeffrey Dey, MBA Health Chapter Robert Ludke, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus in Family and Community Medicine University of Cincinnati Correspondence All correspondence regarding this report should be given to: Mike Maloney Michael Maloney and Associates 5829 Wyatt Avenue Cincinnati, Ohio 45213 Tel: 513.531.8799 Fax: 513.531.3899 Email: [email protected] Web Access This study may be accessed through www.socialareasofcincinnati.org or www.crc.uc.edu. iii Social Areas of Cincinnati iv Table of Contents Execu ve Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ ix Chapter 1: Early Work in Social Area Analysis .....................................................................................................................1 Chapter 2: The Social Areas of Cincinna ............................................................................................................................5 Chapter 3: The Census Tract Map Method ........................................................................................................................27 Chapter 4: Poverty, Race and Gender in Cincinna ...........................................................................................................29 Chapter 5: Appalachian Cincinna ....................................................................................................................................51 Chapter 6: Educa on in Cincinna ....................................................................................................................................57 Chapter 7: The Elderly and Children ..................................................................................................................................71 Chapter 8: Unemployment and Joblessness .....................................................................................................................83 Chapter 9: The Neighborhoods 1970 to 2005-2009 Comparisons ....................................................................................91 Chapter 10: Health and Wellness ....................................................................................................................................103 Chapter 11: Cincinna as a Metropolis ...........................................................................................................................109 Chapter 12: Summary of Findings and Policy Recommenda ons ...................................................................................127 Appendix I: References ....................................................................................................................................................141 Appendix II: SES Index and Variables for Cincinna City Census Tracts ...........................................................................145 Appendix III: Neighborhood Changes 1970 to 2000-2009 ..............................................................................................151 Appendix IV: SES Index and Variables for Metropolitan Census Tracts ...........................................................................159 Appendix V: Defi ni ons of Variables ...............................................................................................................................173 Appendix VI: SES Index and Variables for Cincinna Metropolitan Area 15 County Census Tracts, 2005-2009 ..............175 Appendix VII: SES Index and Variables for Cincinna Metropolitan Area 20 County Census Tracts, 2005-2009 .............193 Appendix VIII: Changes in Sta s cal Neighborhood Approxima ons (SNAs) for the 2010 Csnsus .................................213 v Social Areas of Cincinnati Index of Tables Table Description 1a Defi ni ons of SES Index and Indicators ..........................................................................................................2 1b Correla on Matrix for SES Variables 2005-2009 ............................................................................................3 2a Cincinna Census Tracts and SES Quar les by Neighborhood .......................................................................9 2b City of Cincinna Summary Sta s cs for SES Quar les, 1970-2005-2009 ...................................................14 2c City of Cincinna Average SES Indicators by Quar le 1970-2005-2009 .......................................................17 2d City of Cincinna Summary Sta s cs 1970-2005-2009 ................................................................................18 2e Neighborhoods that declined 10 points or more between 1970 and 1980 .................................................23 2f-1 Neighborhoods that Experienced the Greatest Decline 1970-2005-2009 ...................................................23 2f-2 Neighborhoods that Experienced the Greatest Decline 1980-1990 .............................................................23 2g-1 Neighborhoods that Experienced the Greatest Decline 1990-2000 .............................................................23 2g-2 Neighborhoods that Declined 10 points or more, 2000-2005-2009 ............................................................24 2h Neighborhoods that Experienced the Greatest Decline, 1970-2005-2009 ..................................................25 4a Cincinna Neighborhoods: Median Family Income and Families Below Poverty 2005-2009 ......................34 4b