Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Transport Infrastructure

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AFR ICA D E VELO PMENT FO R U M Costs to Historic Costs Ratio ofMeanReactive theirrehabilita of thenetwork,shorten substantially increase disruptiontime climate changeonroads andbridges. (PIDA) andassessed theimpactof Infrastructure Development inAfrica tion outlinedintheProgramme for Africa, includingnewroad construc million kmofroads inSub-Saharan tating trade. This studyconsidered 2.8 schools andgoodsto markets facili people to hospitals,children to connect villagesto economiccenters, Roads are akey asset forAfrica-they Africa ClimateResiliency:TheTransportSector Values indicatethetotal effect ofclimatechangeonroad maintenance costsin2015$(discountedat6%) Climate changeisexpectedto Climate ChangeThreatenstoIncreaseRoadMaintenanceCostsby 270% A newmethodallowspolicymakerstomanagetheriskimposedbyextreme 7 to 8 6 to 7 5 to 6 4 to 5 3 to 4 2 to 3 Colors indicatetheratio ofreactive maintenancecoststo historic costsfortherespective stressor in each region. Floodingandtemperature stressors are expectedto result insignificantincreases due to precipitation, floodingandtemperature stress inCentral, East,South,and West Africa. PRECIPITATION climate changeeventsonroadsandbridgesinSub-SaharanAfrica. of Africa’sTransportInfrastructure WEST Enhancing theClimateResilience    CENTRAL SOUTH EAST - - in reactive costscompared to historic costs. - (proactive adaptation). cost ofinvestments inadaptation inaction (reactive response) to thenet approach, comparingthecostof most cost-effective adaptation decision makers inidentifyingthe develops atoassist methodology precipitation, andtemperature and change impactsdueto flooding, solutions to buildresilience to climate ates theeconomicsofengineering rehabilitation costs. The studyevalu tion life-cycle, andincrease repair and FLOODING

1 CONFEREN CE EDITIO N  Enhancin g the Climate

Resilience of Africa- ’ s • • • Key Messages: Better informationonthebenefitsof Proactive adaptationisacost-effec Adequate road maintenanceisthe countries inresponse to precipitation. temperatures, andinatleasteight response to anticipatedhigher allcountriesin tive option invirtually climate ontheroad system. of reducing theimpactofachanging most criticalandefficientway adaptation can informdecisionsonproactive avoiding climate-related disruption Infrastructure

TEMPERATURE The Power and Water Sectors December 2016 Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Lide n, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek, Editors

- AFR ICA D E VELO PMENT FO R U M APPROACH and otherinfrastructure. current andfuture roads, bridges, impacts ofclimatechangeon analysis tool to understandthe quantitative, engineering-based System (IPSS),a Planning Support networks, usingtheInfrastructure existing andplannednew road infrastructure datacompiledfor climate changescenariosonthe The studyappliesIPCCvetted Africa ClimateResiliency:TheTransportSector road projects, country-level projects, Assemble dataontrans-boundary Enhancing the Climate Resilience Enhancing theClimateResilience Climate Change Projections scenarios fortemperature, precipitation, andflooding Assemble climatechange and existingroads “PIDA+” Network of Africa’s Infrastructure: Step 1–DATA The RoadsandBridgesSector Paul Chinowsky, andJames E. Neumann, Raffaello Cervigni, Andrew Losos, Conference Edition Editors

Effects ofClimateStressors On Roads roads ROAD TYPE U P aved roads npaved • • for twoscenarios: the road infrastructure are estimated Costs imposedby climatechangeon and reductions inroad disruption. repeated repairs andmaintenance, reductions insubsequent needsfor up-front costsofdesignchanges, impacts are quantifiedintermsof Climatechange of anyopportunities. climate changeandtake advantage are taken to mitigatetheeffects of Adaptation) Proactive Adaptation(Investments in incremental road disruptioncosts. incurred undercurrent climate,and relative to thosethatwouldbe increased maintenancecosts, impacts are quantifiedintermsof damage roads. Climatechange climate change,andextreme events are taken to prepare theroads for Inaction) Reactive Response (Risksof Reactive response istheadditional Flooding Precipitation Temperature Flooding Precipitation Temperature CLIMATE STRESSOR INCREASED IMPACT BY changes to road designstandards and investments inmore resilient necessary by changesinclimate. necessary maintenance andrepair made Proactive adaptationinvolves Risks ofInaction Step 2–ANALYSIS construction. -Noproactive measures Adaptation - Anticipatory measures

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Wash-aways ofroad andovertopping content insubgrade layers, capacity andreduced load-carrying Leads to increased roughness oftheroad increase surface average moisture No effect Wash-aways ofroad andovertopping capacity Increased average moisture contentinsubgrade layers andreduced loadcarrying Rutting ofasphaltandbleedingflushingseals Accelerated agingofbinder EFFECT

Enhancin g the Climat e Resilience of Africa’ s inclusion oftraffic disruptioninthis to climatechangeimpacts. The rehabilitation andrepairs due nance, than offsetby thecostformainte adapting to climatechangeismore sense if theconstructioncostof Proactive adaptationmakes financial proactive adaptationresponse. costs incurred whenfollowinga justifying thehigherconstruction resilient engineeringsolutions, in favor ofadoptingmore climate people andgoods,tiltingthebalance disruptions inthemovement of climate changecancauseserious for high-traffic roads, even milder for proactive adaptation.Inparticular, strengthens thecase analysis further costs andbenefitsofproactive adaptation road disruption,becausetheroad isrepair far lessfrequently ifitismaderesilient to nance andrepair over time,andreduced

Infrastructure Compare therisksofinaction, with the reduction infinancialcostsofmainte action. The benefitsincludeboththe Decision MakingConsidering Step 3–DECISIONS The Power and Water Sectors Road Disruption Effects climate change.

Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Lide n, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek, Editors

- - AFR ICA D E VELO PMENT FO R U M adaptation pathway. incurred whenfollowingaproactive of thehigherconstructioncosts resilient engineeringsolutions,inspite tilted infavor ofadopting more climate these situations,thebalancecanbe movement ofpeopleandgoods.In disruptionsinthe can causeimportant fic roads, even milderclimatechange considered. Inparticular, forhigh-traf sensitive to theclimatescenario the financialcaseforadaptationis inprojects where important particularly called a“breakeven analysis.” This is time inadecision-makingcontext and thebenefitsof reduced disruption to considerboththefinancialbenefits and hospitals. restores theaccessibilityofschools disruption ofsupplychains,and downtime forroads reduces the repair andmaintenance shorter not take A theroad outofservice. network, becauseclimatestressors do thedowntimeoftransport shorten fact thatmore resilient road assets life-time financial costsleaves outthe Considering onlytheperspective of case foradaptationisunequivocal. climate scenarios.Inthesecases,the savings over theassets’lifecycle inall projects, there willbenetfinancial tion/construction cost).For someroad savings, relative to theupfront adapta less pronounced change(smaller the project); andweaker inscenariosof higher costsavings over thelifecycle of severe climatechange(asthere willbe stronger underscenariosofmore scenario considered. The casewillbe tion dependsontheclimatechange The financialcaseforproactive adapta APPROACH (continued) Africa ClimateResiliency:TheTransportSector Therefore, thelaststepinstudyis - - - • • • the following: for aproject- orcountry-level climatechangeanalysisforroads consistof has grown more tractable recently. The modelingcomponentsrequired may appearto beoverly complex.Butimplementationattheproject scale many interactions amongthecomponentsofroad networksystem— Implementing theapproach scale—whichinvolves proposed by thisreport Change intoRoadProjectDesign? What DoesitTaketoIntegrateClimate or, thatcanbeusedasatemplateforwide range ofapplications. relatively transparent setofadaptationmeasures foreachclimatestress same datautilized in feasibility studies.Finally, thisstudyhasdeveloped a have alsobecome increasingly available andcanbecalibrated usingthe Appropriatesdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/). road analysistools made available Africa-widethrough acentral datarepository (http:// available, includingthoseusedforthisreport. These datasetswillsoonbe The requisite setsofclimateprojections have becomeincreasingly A simpleproject designandcostmodelthatcanreproduce existingcost estimates from pre-feasibility studies,andcanestimate howcosts would developed usingmore detailedtools. design andcostmodel,several estimatesofalternative designscouldbe the complexityofdesignprecludes thedevelopment ofasimple withalternativevary design specificationsthatincorporate adaptation.If Information onthebaselinecapitalandmaintenancecostsforconstruct A setofdownscaledclimateprojections fortheproject’s orcountry’s ing roads to alternative designspecifications. relevant geographic region.

3 CONFEREN CE EDITIO N Enhancin g the Climate Resilience of Africa’ s Infrastructure The Power and Water Sectors

Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Lide n, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek, Editors - - AFR ICA D E VELO PMENT FO R U M “ make climatechangeimpactseven maintenance standards, whichwill most Africancountriesare wellbelow repairs andrehabilitation costs. Infact, network connectivityandincreases in cause substantialdisruptionsin across countries),climatechangewill (thereby standardizing theanalysis adequate maintenanceregimes findsthat even assuming This report are thefirstdefense to climaterisks. vulnerable andcriticalroad sections identify andincrementally address works; andsystematicassessmentsto improvement ofslopeprotection not obstructed;maintenanceand tures to ensure they are functionaland anddrainage struc bridges, culverts activities; regular maintenanceof nance ofpavements andsealing reinforces thisdynamic. Thus, mainte tainty related to climatechangefurther tic events isexacerbated. The uncer regime, thedamagecausedby climac absence ofanadequatemaintenance climate ontheroad system. of reducing theimpactofachanging most criticalandefficientway Adequate road maintenanceisthe FINDINGS Africa ClimateResiliency:TheTransportSector even more severe. which willmake climatechangeimpacts are wellbelowmaintenancestandards, this dynamic...mostAfrican countries reinforces related to climatechange further events isexacerbated. The uncertainty regime, thedamagecausedby climactic In theabsenceofanadequatemaintenance Inthe - - - - ” adequate, climate-resilient mainte more severe. This suggeststhat higher temperature. need to repair damagesrelated to bring. Notdoingsomay causethe temperatures thatclimatechangewill road infrastructure forthehigher that itisalready appropriate to design enced. Inotherwords, thestudyshows cant temperature increases are experi sures are adoptednow, before signifi construction costs,even ifthemea cycle more thanoffsetthehigher the savings accruedover theroad life national networks. The reason isthat planned expansion/upgrade ofthe PIDA transboundary corridorsandthe climate scenarios,includingboththe countries andthevast majorityof all option forpaved roads invirtually temperature isaloworno-regret sponse to an anticipatedhigher option. temperature increase isanoregret finance when available. by climate and shouldbesupported ly DeterminedContributions(NDCs), countries operationalize theirNational nance shouldbeakey priorityas Proactive adaptationinresponse to Modifying thedesigninre

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crossings inroad networks. of thecriticalnature ofbridge bridges thanforroads because are oftenmuchhigher for Additionally, disruptiontimes climate scenarios,respectively. severe andmostsevere 1.5 and7timesfortheleast climate changerange between increases incostsdueto Compared to historic costs, were usedintheanalysis. by theprecipitation stressor flow characterization caused and therefore impactsdueto scour related to flow events, vulnerable to bankerosion and roads. Bridgesare mainly orsecondary links forprimary percent oftheseare critical haranAfrica. Thirty-one roads networkacross Sub-Sa 330,000 bridgesintheexisting There are approximately on Bridges Precipitation Impact of Infrastructure The Power and Water Sectors

Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Lide n,

James E . Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek, Editors - AFR ICA D E VELO PMENT FO R U M • • • thelifetime cost ofroad assets; available on: more granular informationis about specificinvestments, once straightforward mannerto decisions methodology canbeappliedina future climate. of anuncertain The of proactive adaptationinthecontext methodology to evaluate themerits adaptation. develops aThis report can informdecisionsonproactive of avoiding climate-related disruption from pro-active adaptation. areas may wellalready benefitalso appropriately. Someroads insome how to invest inresilience most needed to identifywhere, whenand countries, more detailedanalysisis ly adaptingtheroad system.Inother proactivewould beappropriate to start lated disruption.Inthesecountriesit will inducesignificantprecipitation-re even moderate changesintheclimate Benin, andCameroon) itisclearthat Togo, SouthSudan,Mozambique, countries (Angola,Nigeria,Botswana, the continent,butinatleasteight for precipitation. Rainfallvaries allover definite onhow to proactively design climate, itisnotpossibleto beas regarding futuremental uncertainty case by case. clear cut,andneedsto beassessed response to precipitation isnotas “ Africa ClimateResiliency:TheTransportSector the criticalityofroad segment on the value of thefreight andpassenger traffic expected to usethoseassets, Better informationonthebenefits The caseforproactive adaptationin damages related to higher temperature. change willbring. Notdoingsomay causetheneed to repair infrastructure forthehighertemperatures thatclimate The studyshows thatitisalready appropriate to design road Because ofthefunda

- that could be very costlytothat couldbevery reverse mate-vulnerable engineering solutions avoid lockingroad projects incli This focusisjustified by theneed to adapted to extreme temperatures). flooding; using road bindersbetter sides; hardening river banksto avoid crowning aroad to enablewaterto the drainage capacityofaroad; better resilience of engineeringsolutionsto build • “ how climatestressors (precipitation, its use. likely to affect boththeroad assetand flooding, extreme temperatures) are redundancy ontheotherhand,and the onehandandlevel ofnetwork This studyevaluated theeconomics the climatewillinducesignificant clear thateven moderate changesin but inatleasteightcountries…itis Rainfall varies allover thecontinent, precipitation-related disruption. (suchasincreasing the

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” Resilience of Africa’ s • • • climate risk,include: of theircost-effectiveness ofreducing African countriescouldassess,interms later. Otheradaptationoptionsthat Non-engineering solutions-traffic ly cleaningthedrains andtunnels roads; reroutingcertain traffic; regular control, like restricting truckingon Enabling environment –policiesand Sector andspatialplanning-position maintenance, andinspection. including goodcontracting, regular sional managementofroad systems, regulations thatfacilitatetheprofes to thesameplace redundancies, i.e.,multipleways to get be harmedby climate;building-in ing roads where they are notlikely to Infrastructure The Power and Water Sectors

Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Lide n, J” ames E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek,

Editors

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AFR ICA D E VELO PMENT FO R U M “ the resilience ofnewinfrastructure. to enhance mand consultingsupport structure data,andpractical on-de high-quality climateandroad infra assistance, meet theneedforexpert Excellence throughout Africa,andwill Ethiopia, have regional Centersof activities willbebasedinAddisAbaba, Investment Facility. The facility’s develop theAfricaClimate-Resilient have announcedacooperative to effort Development Bank,andkey donors Commission forAfrica,theAfrican the World Bank,theUNEconomic developers, andfinanciers. Thatiswhy ofgovernments, project support Making thischangewillrequire strong take betteraccountofclimatechange. way road infrastructure is designed,to motivation forchangingthe powerful The results ofthestudyprovide a NEXT STEPS Africa ClimateResiliency:TheTransportSector effective manner. mitigated inacost- be significantly climate riskscan investments, studies ofindividual in pre-feasibility project cycle and integrated inthe analysis isfully long asclimaterisk investment. As of infrastructure slow downthepace do notneedto African countries

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1 2 2 3 3 4 4 What comesnext? infrastructures. sionals involved intheplanning,design,andoperation ofclimate-sensitive structure, oneormore training programs couldbeestablishedforprofes tion ofclimateresilience into individualprojects. to climate-resilient infrastructuresupport masterplansorto theintegra structure development cycle. For example,thefacilitycouldprovide the specificneedsofdifferent sectors orfor different stagesoftheinfra by African institutions(suchasUNECA’s AfricanClimatePolicy Center). could bemadeavailable to thepubliconopen-dataplatformsandhosted scenarios, road infrastructure, standard constructioncosts,etc.),which opment, there isaneedto establishcommondatasources (onclimate infrastructure planninganddesign. notions ofclimateresilience, discussedatlengthinthisbook,to real-life established to develop technicalguidelinesonhowto voluntary applythe to thefollowingselectedareas ofinterventions. considerable gestationtime,thetimeto actisnow, withpriorityassigned design engineers.Becausesuchaparadigm shiftislikely to have a oftherelevant professions,expertise suchasclimatescientistsand dated behavior andpractices, withthegoalofbetterintegrating the infrastructure islikely to require achangeinmindset,away from consoli Promoting adaptationto climatechangeintheplanninganddesignof sectors. in theplanninganddesignofinfrastructure inclimate-sensitive Develop technicalguidelinesontheintegration ofclimatechange concessional resources, couldhave different windowsto caterto The facility, whichwouldbeadequatelyfinancedwithgrant or Establish anAfricaclimateresilience project preparation facility. skills thatare required to enhancetheclimateresilience ofinfra professionals. Launch training programs forclimate-resilient infrastructure infrastructure development. Promote anopen-data knowledgerepository for climate-resilient needed to integrate climateconsiderations into infrastructure devel Amulti-stakeholder technicalworkinggroup couldbe

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