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Bridging Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Sector Through Renewable and Energy Efficiency Emerging and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

Sadie Cox, Eliza Hotchkiss, Dan Bilello, Andrea Watson, and Alison Holm | National Laboratory Jennifer Leisch | U.S. Agency for International Development

November 2017

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors would like to thank Sherry Stout, Jaquelin Cochran, and David Mooney of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Pamela Cookson of ICF International, and Danielle Miley of the U.S. Agency for International Development for their thoughtful comments and review. Any remaining errors or omissions are those of the authors.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency i LIST OF ACRONYMS

CHP combined and DG DPV distributed DSM demand-side management EE energy efficiency FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GHG gas IRP integrated resource planning IRRP Integrated Resource and Resiliency Planning LEDS low emission development strategies NAP National Plan NCCAP National Climate Change Action Plan NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory RALI (USAID) Resources to Advance LEDS Implementation PV photovoltaics RE renewable energy

ii Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction ...... 1

2. Power Sector Climate Change ...... 2

3. Technical Solutions: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

to Support Resilient Power Systems ...... 5

3.1 Scaling Up Demand-Side Energy Efficiency ...... 5

3.2 Diversifying Generation Portfolios ...... 8

3.3 Deploying Distributed Generation: Distributed PV, , and Minigrids ...... 9

3.4 Enabling Storage Solutions ...... 10

3.5 Developing Smart Grids ...... 10

4. Integrated Planning Processes: Bringing Together Technical Solutions

to Achieve Goals Across Mitigation and Resilience ...... 12

4.1 Climate Planning for the Electric Sector ...... 12

4.2 Low Emission Climate-Resilient Development Strategies ...... 12

4.3 Integrated Electricity Planning Approaches ...... 15

4.4 Local Climate Strategies ...... 17

5. Conclusion ...... 19

Glossary ...... 20

References ...... 21

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency iii LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Potential Climate Change Impacts to Power Technologies and Sectors ...... 2

Table 2. Technology Scenarios to Support Resilience During an Electricity Outage ...... 11

Table 3. Multi-Criteria Impact Assessment to Inform Linked Adaptation, Mitigation, and Development-Focused Action in ’s Electricity Sector ...... 14

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Water withdrawal and consumption of power generation technologies...... 4

Figure 2. Decision-making framework to enable risk assessment and response...... 13

Figure 3. Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan framework ...... 14

LIST OF BOXES

Box 1. Resilient Power Systems Defined ...... 3

Box 2. Technology to Support Climate Resilience ...... 3

Box 3. Water and Electricity in the Context of Climate Change ...... 4

Box 4. Utility-Led Demand-Side Management and Energy Efficiency Programs in the ...... 6

Box 5. Passive Survivability in ...... 7

Box 6. Building Codes to Support Climate Resilience and Mitigation in Vietnam ...... 7

Box 7. Antigua and Barbuda NDCs Goal to Create Climate-Resilient Building Codes ...... 8

Box 8. Addressing Climate Risks in Ho Chi Minh City ...... 8

Box 9. Supporting Resiliency Before and After ...... 10

Box 10. Assessing Technology Scenarios for Climate Resilience Using System Optimization Modeling ...... 11

Box 11. Multi-Level and Sectoral Stakeholder Engagement to Enable Resiliency Planning in Colorado, in the United States ...... 12

Box 12. Climate Assessment in the United States ...... 13

Box 13. Low Carbon Climate-Resilient Development in Kenya ...... 14

Box 14. USAID’s Integrated Resource and Resiliency Planning ...... 15

Box 15. Integrated Electricity Planning in South Africa ...... 16

Box 16. Grid Integration Planning and Implementation ...... 16

Box 17. Oscarville, Alaska, Initiates Resilient Planning ...... 18

iv Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 1. INTRODUCTION

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, and associated processes make up a significant portion of global (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change (IPCC 2014). Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts—both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growing electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported , expand energy access, and improve stressed for supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting sector adaptation to increasing . Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 1 2. POWER SECTOR CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY

Climate change is currently impacting, Table 1. Potential Climate Change Impacts to Power Technologies and Sectors and will continue to impact, the electricity Climate changes Technologies/sectors Potential impacts sector globally (IPCC 2012). Both chronic climatic change and singular climate events Generation • Crop damage and increased will affect the demand, supply, production, change • Biopower irrigation demand and delivery of electricity in a multitude of • • Reduced generation capacity and operational changes ways. Table 1 presents categories of climate • Solar PV changes and potential impacts on power • Reduced generation capacity • Thermal technologies generation, transmission and distribution, (, geothermal, natural • Reduced generation efficiency and demand. EE and RE technical solutions gas, nuclear, concentrated and capacity that can support addressing these impacts ) • Reduced transmission efficiency and capacity are explored in Section 3. Transmission and distribution • Increased demand for cooling Demand The variability, characteristics, and severity of the impacts of climate change will also Water availability Generation • Decreased crop production be highly localized, reflecting the particular and temperature • Biopower • Reduced generation capacity combination of climate factors and stressors • Hydropower and operational changes inherent to a given location. In addition to • Thermal technologies • Reduced generation capacity more frequent and extreme sudden-onset impacts (e.g., hurricanes, typhoons, heat speed Generation • Reduced generation capacity waves, and extreme storms), climate change changes • Wind is also expected to create or exacerbate Generation • Physical damage and gradual-onset impacts (e.g., , Flooding and rise • power disruption/loss— level rise, and changes in precipitation all generation technologies • Hydropower patterns). Consequently, electricity sector • Physical damage resilience extends beyond safeguarding • Solar PV the integrity of power generation and • Thermal technologies grid infrastructure from short-term or • Wind immediate physical shocks to also include Transmission and distribution planning for long-term changes in climatic conditions. For the purposes of this paper, Extreme climatic Generation • Physical damage and a definition of resilient power systems is events (e.g., • Bioenergy power disruption/loss— storms, short- all generation technologies included in Box 1. • Hydropower term extreme • Physical damage and reduced heat events, • Solar PV transmission capacity For every situation, short-term and chronic other disasters) of the electric power sector • Thermal technologies • Increased peak electricity demand to climate change will vary depending • Wind on the of the risk faced as well Transmission and distribution as the unique characteristics of the local Demand power systems. For example, countries Sources: EPSA (2015); WBCSD (2014).

2 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency with installed hydropower where peak loads tend to occur in the dry season Box 1. Resilient Power Box 2. Technology may benefit from a more diversified Systems Defined Innovation to Support electricity portfolio as highlighted in Box 2. Alternatively, countries with large rural Resilient power systems bring Climate Resilience , dispersed load centers, and together diverse technical In addition to the technical few generation sources may improve system solutions and integrated planning solutions highlighted in this paper, resiliency and reduce emissions through processes to allow systems several innovative renewable renewable-based islanded distributed to provide reliable, safe, and design generation (DG) systems that mitigate risks secure electricity during short- features are being researched to vulnerable transmission infrastructure term disasters and events and and developed to support more (Cox et. al. 2016). DG solutions are as longer-term climate changes resilient power systems. Example explored in Section 3. These and another occur. Resilient power systems technologies include improved clean energy technical solutions are also support GHG emission variable wind speed turbines, explored in sections below. reductions to mitigate further taller wind turbines to reduce climate impacts in the future. wind speed variability challenges, Reliable and secure access to electricity Resilient power systems are and solar cells designed for has significant implications across many critical in protecting and ensuring higher , among economic sectors, including water cross-sectoral economic and others (WBCSD 2014). treatment and distribution, manufacturing, social development. and agricultural processing, among others. Vulnerabilities in the electricity sector have the potential to magnify vulnerabilities in other sectors, producing cascading effects across economies and local communities.1 Resilient power systems are therefore critical in supporting cross-sectoral development goals around the world. Box 3 provides a detailed look at water constraints in the context of climate change and impacts on the power sector. It presents some EE and RE technical solutions to enable power system resilience, with more highlighted in Section 3.

1. http://www.iea.org/topics/electricity. Accessed March 2017.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 3 Box 3. Water and Electricity in the Context of Climate Change In 2015, more than 700 million people globally lived in water-scarce areas. Global climate change models project that this number will increase more than four-fold by 2035, with an estimated 3 billion people experiencing extreme and stress.

Thermal electricity generation involves using a fuel source to produce steam that turns a turbine. This type of electricity production is water intensive, primarily due to cooling requirements. Other processes along the supply chain—such as fuel extraction, transportation, processing and, in some cases, emission scrubbing—can also consume significant amounts of water (IEA 2012a; IEA 2016c). As another consideration, water temperature also impacts thermal plant efficiency. Within this context, and heat waves, expected to increase as a result of climate change, will significantly impact the efficiency and economics of electricity systems dependent on thermal power (DOE 2013). Further, hydropower systems, dependent on for electricity generation, are expected to be impacted by changing weather patterns associated with climate change.

Building on this point, the figure below presents water use and consumption across electricity generating technologies. As shown, certain renewable energy technologies, notably solar PV and wind, use and consume less water than thermal technologies (Macknick et al. 2011). Water-saving attributes of these technologies, combined with emission reduction potential, can allow countries to pursue development pathways aligned with both climate change mitigation and adaptation. The method used for cooling a given technology can also significantly increase or decrease the water intensity of that generation technology. For example, concentrating solar power can be either a very water-intensive or water-efficient generation technology depending on the cooling process employed at the site.

oncethrough cooling pon recirculating rcoole

Nuclear h h 0000 1200 Coal 0000 1000 iopoer 0000 00 gallons/M gallons/M 0000 00 combineccle als

w 20000 a 00 CSP trough 10000 200 PV Solar ithd r

0 0 onsumption W C in Withdrawals meian Consumption Ranges relect minimum an maimum ateruse values

Figure 1. Water withdrawal and consumption of power generation technologies. Source: Adapted from Averyt et al. (2011) and DOE (2013)

At the global level, increased renewable energy deployment could result in significant water savings. Under the International Energy Agency’s 450 Scenario, 48% of electricity generation would be derived from renewable energy by 2035 (IEA 2012b). Bringing this scenario to fruition could result in a water-use reduction of 200 billion cubic meters globally as compared to a business-as-usual scenario (IRENA 2015). This analysis underscores the potential for renewable energy to play an important role in supporting climate-resilient electricity generation around the world. Importantly, for an individual country, these water savings could also allow for more optimal use of scarce resources for other critical adaptation priorities, such as .

Another consideration of the link between energy and water is that energy is typically required to treat and clean water. Water treatment facilities, both potable and waste water, require energy to run pumps and motors, aerate water ponds, and to send and receive water in pipes. Energy efficiency strategies, such as using gravity-fed systems to reduce the need to pump water, high-efficiency pumps and motors, or designing natural, biological systems, reduce the energy being consumed within water treatment and delivery processes. Addressing energy needs in water treatment, as well as water needs in energy production, is prudent for achieving larger goals.

4 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 3. TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS: ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY TO SUPPORT RESILIENT POWER SYSTEMS

Resilient power systems bridge and stress. EE can also reduce the need to be considered in integrated planning development and climate goals and can for increased electricity supply over time processes, and these levels can align with simultaneously support climate resilience, as load profiles change and potential broader EE targets or energy savings goals. GHG emissions mitigation, and cost- temperature increases impact durations of However, in most cases EE is not yet effective access to electricity. While the consumer electricity use. In addition, EE considered equal to supply side resources literature on the potential for EE and is very important when paired with battery within integrated resource planning (IRP) RE to reduce GHG emissions (IPCC systems, as it can expand the operating life modeling processes. This often leads to 2012; IEA 2015a; IRENA 2016) as well of critical loads. Reducing the need for an underestimation of EE potential and as other co-benefits (IPCC 2009; IEA electricity overall can also be beneficial for thus a greater focus on new supply side 2014; World Future Council 2016) is daily operation of a grid system. Integrated investments than may be required (Lamont extensive, there has been less emphasis on EE planning, demand-side management, and Gerhard 2013). Addressing this issue the important climate resilience benefits and EE building codes are three key areas to within resource planning processes could that can be supported through EE and RE support cost-effective investment planning enable more cost-effective investments and deployment. and responsiveness of power systems to reduce the need for expanded supply as changing load profiles over the near and electricity demand increases. The following sections focus on potential long term. resiliency benefits of key low carbon EE Demand-Side Management and RE technical solutions. Solutions Integrated Energy highlighted include: (1) scaling up EE DSM is a key EE measure and a Efficiency Planning (integrated EE planning, demand-side mechanism for aligning with management (DSM), and EE building Policymakers and system planners can times of peak generation that distinctly codes); (2) diversifying generation integrate EE with electricity planning focuses on reducing consumers’ energy portfolios; (3) deploying distributed to inform new investments and policies demand and shifting patterns of energy generation; (4) enabling storage solutions; and to support resilient power systems. use. DSM improves responsiveness of and (5) developing smart grids. Section Temperature changes are expected to the power system to shifts in electricity 4 then highlights how these technical increase demand for electricity (especially supply and demand, improving overall solutions can be brought together under for cooling) (IEA 2013), and integrated system stability and resilience to short-term integrated planning processes and in electricity planning can allow for a portion extreme heat events and more chronic, relation to unique individual country of that demand to be met through EE long-term changes in load profiles and and jurisdictional circumstances and rather than expanded electricity generation temperatures (IEA 2015b). investments. Further, integrated EE development goals (e.g., expanding Several approaches can be implemented to planning can allow for prioritization of energy access, improving , support power system resilience through EE measures, such as DSM, highlighted job creation, etc.). DSM. Power systems integrating DSM below, that support responsiveness of power can be most responsive when utilities systems to changes in demand during short- have the ability to shed demand-side load 3.1 Scaling Up Demand- term extreme weather events and over the automatically through mechanisms such Side Energy Efficiency longer term. as direct load control or interruptible Demand-side EE measures, when One common EE planning approach load. For example, utilities might implemented at scale, can support both is for EE to be considered as a resource develop agreements with high energy use short- and long-term climate resilience along with other generation resources industrial consumers to reduce electricity solutions. During short-term extreme within electricity expansion and integrated consumption automatically (e.g., through events, EE measures can reduce peak loads resource plans. EE potential studies can turning off industrial equipment) during and the potential for system instability inform levels of demand-side resources times of highest demand. Utilities can

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 5 also use incentives such as electricity tariff increases during times of peak demand, Box 4. Utility-Led Demand-Side Management and which provide a price signal to consumers to decrease electricity use. Rebates or Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States other compensation mechanisms can also Energy efficiency and demand management are increasingly prominent be given to commercial and industrial approaches in energy planning strategies. New data compiled by Navigant consumers for a commitment to reduce Research suggests global expenditures on integrated DSM are expected to power when the electricity system is increase from approximately $39.8 million in 2016 to $1.2 billion in 2025, experiencing highest demand. Smart with the largest increase in the United States (Navigant 2016). Several utilities metering programs are another voluntary across the country have already instituted DSM programs. Consolidated Edison DSM approach that allows consumers to of New York (Con Edison), one of the largest investor-owned utilities in the monitor their energy use and prices in real United States, initiated the Brooklyn Queens Demand Management (BQDM) time, thus providing an incentive to reduce project in 2016 in an effort to offset the construction of a new substation power use during peak demand or as (Tweed 2016). The project targets specific neighborhoods with a goal of prices increase (Salami and Farsi 2015; reducing demand by 52 MW through a combination of EE and DSM projects, IEEE 2011). as well as distributed generation and . Several other utilities of varying sizes have also instituted EE and programs. As During times of acute stress on the examples of the range of program offerings, Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE electricity system, e.g., extreme heat events, 2016) and Hawaiian Electric (Hawaiian Electric 2016) have both implemented DSM control systems will be most effective voluntary DSM programs. Under BGE’s Smart Energy Rewards program, at enabling responsiveness as adjustments subscribers are credited for every kWh of energy saved (compared to the can be made automatically through the customer’s typical usage) on projected high energy use days, whereas under utility, usually within minutes or even Hawaii Electric’s Fast DR Pilot Program, the utility will notify users to reduce seconds (Sullivan et al. 2013; RMI 2006). load in real time. In evaluating the potential impact of EE and DSM programs DSM approaches that rely on voluntary , an IOU in the United States, offers an illustrative example. Looking consumer behavior adjustments, such as at combined totals through 2014 for the entire utility, which covers eight states, smart metering, will play a much smaller Xcel estimates that customers have offset the need for a total of 4,250 MW role in supporting power system resilience of energy production since it started tracking results from energy efficiency in these extreme circumstances. However, programs in 1992 (Xcel 2015). to address gradual climate changes over the longer term, pricing incentives and smart metering programs can be critical in enabling consumers to support more resilient power systems (EIA 2012). Energy-Efficient Building Codes In addition to structural elements to support climate resilience noted above, Building codes typically cover a wide Demand-side management can also reduce building codes can be designed to address range of topic areas, including building the need to build additional electricity various EE needs related to the building construction and design, electrical, generation capacity, which can in turn envelope, heating and mechanical, and plumbing reduce water use needs required for needs, installed appliances and equipment, components, material selection, and certain electricity generating technologies. and RE integration, among others (IEA EE. Codes can be tailored to specific Water use considerations are explored 2008). Assessing the local current and environmental contexts to address the further in Section 3.2. DSM programs future building stock in relation to unique hazard profiles of individual areas. are often implemented by utilities and projected climate conditions and energy For example, heavy structures include a number of incentives and other supply and demand is an important first may not be appropriate in mountainous, mechanisms (e.g., related step in informing EE building codes landslide-prone parts of the world, and to time of day energy usage) to reduce and aligned with climate resilience. shift . Box 4 provides areas at heightened risk for earthquakes examples of utility-led DSM and EE can benefit from adopting specific programs in the United States. seismic codes.

6 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Codes that require the construction or renovation of existing buildings to Box 5. Passive Survivability in Maine become more energy efficient can assist with reducing the need for power during An ice storm in Maine, USA, in 2013 left numerous residents without outages and enhance the passive for five days with below-freezing temperatures and no heat. The homes in survivability. Passive survivability is the Belfast, Maine’s Cohousing and were able to maintain livable indoor concept of maintaining comfortable conditions due to passive survivability principles. The super-efficient homes indoor environments without the need have a southerly orientation and generous south-facing glazing to maximize for power, such as during a . passive solar gain, triple-paned windows and doors, super-insulation, and airtight Passive survivability design principles construction to reduce loss of heat in the winter, as well as on-site PV panels to include development of low height, provide electricity. The home designs have resulted in a 90% reduction in energy energy efficient, storm-resistant buildings, use for space heating compared to the average house. While neighbors lost heat provision of passive solar heating and within 24 hours and faced subzero temperatures, the residents in the Belfast natural lighting and ventilation, and Cohousing and Ecovillage were able to maintain comfortable temperatures and incorporation of solar and stay in their homes. other RE technologies, where possible, To learn more about the Belfast Cohousing and Ecovillage, see Lozanova (2015). among others (Rutgers 2011). Passive survivability has been demonstrated in the field to be an effective strategy in supporting climate resilience and is an area with great potential for further scaling Box 6. Building Codes to Support Climate Resilience at the household and community level. and Mitigation in Vietnam Box 5 highlights a passive survivability To support technical solutions that enable climate resilience and mitigation, community in the state of Maine in the USAID’s Vietnam Clean Energy Program partnered with the of United States where home design features Vietnam to update the country’s Code and promote high- allowed households to better withstand performance, energy efficient buildings throughout Vietnam’s major cities. The extreme weather conditions. program creates a road map for low emission development in the electricity Developing energy efficient building codes sector, builds capacity to strengthen the foundation for low emission energy can also support utilities in directing power systems, and contributes to the country’s climate resilience and low emission needs from residences and office buildings development goals in the construction sector. to more , such as The Vietnam Clean Energy Program defines high-performance buildings as hospitals or water treatment facilities. 30%–50% more efficient than current building standards. Through the project, Several countries and jurisdictions are an inventory of building stock was created to measure the energy performance supporting the design and implementation of large buildings (those greater than 2,500 m2) in Vietnam’s five major cities: of energy efficient building codes to enable Hanoi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh, and Can Tho. The project then climate resilience. Box 6 presents activities demonstrated the potential of high-performance, energy efficient buildings, using in Vietnam to develop green building model buildings to showcase proven energy savings and efficiency. These and codes to support climate resilience and other measures are playing a critical role in supporting climate resilience and GHG mitigation, and Box 7 highlights mitigation in Vietnam. Antigua and Barbuda’s planned climate- Source: USAID (2014) resilient energy codes based on a climate vulnerability assessment and presented in the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 7 farm is spread out to maximize available Bringing each of these areas together, Box 7. Antigua and wind resources, making it more spatially Box 8 highlights electricity portfolio diverse than a coal fired power plant.3 diversity as a key area of focus to address Barbuda NDCs Goal From a bigger picture perspective, RE electricity sector vulnerabilities in Ho Chi to Create Climate- resources can also add significant diversity Minh City, Vietnam. Resilient Building Codes across an electricity portfolio. Using diverse RE resources within an electricity Antigua and Barbuda has put balancing area can support a smoothing forth a specific goal in its NDCs Box 8. Addressing effect that facilitates the integration of to update the country’s building variable RE with the grid and decreases Climate Risks in codes to also address specific vulnerability to disasters. Ho Chi Minh City climate change impacts by 2020. A “Vulnerability Impact and Fuel use: Extreme weather events (e.g., Ho Chi Minh City, with support Adaptation Analysis for Antigua flooding, wildfires, and landslides) that from the Asian Development and Barbuda” will inform the impact fuel supply infrastructure (e.g., gas Bank, undertook a climate building code updates to be lines and/or road, rail, barge access) place vulnerability study in 2010 developed by 2020. conventional generation facilities reliant that identified a number of on these fuel supplies at greater risk than vulnerabilities in the electricity Source: UNFCCC (2015) those generation facilities with an on-site sector. In particular, several fuel supply like wind or solar. Therefore, power plants, electricity “all of the above” power sector portfolios substations, and transmission infrastructure are in identified 3.2 Diversifying diversified to incorporate RE technologies (with on-site fuel) can enable resilience flood areas and could be severely Generation Portfolios and power provision when fuel supplies for impacted by floods by 2050. Compounding these issues, Resilient power systems can bring traditional technologies are impacted by extreme weather events. temperature increases are together a diverse portfolio of electricity expected to increase generation technologies to increase Water use: Diversifying power portfolios energy demand and decrease reliability, and allow for service disruptions to include technologies less dependent on efficiency of power generation to be mitigated and resolved quickly. water will also be critical in certain areas and transmission. Resources can be diversified in relation to that are expected to be impacted by water geography, fuel use needs, and water use availability and/or water temperature To address these challenges, needs to support a more climate-resilient changes. As presented in Section 2, several options were put forth power system. As part of a portfolio Box 3, hydropower and thermal power in the study, including retrofitting diversification strategy, RE technologies technologies are highly dependent on water and relocating vulnerable can play unique and important roles for power production, cooling, and other infrastructure, making structural relative to traditional technologies. processes. Diversifying power portfolios to changes to a critical hydropower basin, diversifying the electricity Geography: RE can maximize the include technologies with low water use needs, such as solar photovoltaics (PV) and portfolio to include decentralized inherent characteristics of spatial RE, and integrating planning diversity. Expanding the incorporation wind, could offer an important technical solution for countries and jurisdictions across climate change mitigation of geographically dispersed RE and other and resilience at the local level. resources with power portfolios can allow that are highly dependent on hydro and localized short-term or chronic climate thermal technologies and may face water Source: ADB (2012) impacts to be managed more effectively challenges related to climate change (REN21 2015).2 As an example, a wind currently or in the future.

2. A forthcoming and complementary paper produced through the USAID Resources to Advance LEDS Implementation (RALI) program provides further details on the vulnerability of renewables to potential climate impacts. 3. It should be noted that the average land coverage of wind farms has not been specified, as discussed in “Land-Use Requirements of Modern Plants in the United States,” http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45834.pdf.

8 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 3.3 Deploying generators can also reduce challenges to a single community or a cluster of Distributed Generation: associated with fuel transport after a disaster communities that are not connected to by prolonging the need to refuel. the grid. A is often defined Distributed PV, as a group of interconnected loads and Microgrids, and Minigrids Distributed PV distributed energy resources within clearly Distributed PV (DPV) or “rooftop PV” defined electrical boundaries that act as a Distributed RE generation occurs near the is the most common distributed RE single controllable entity with respect to point of electricity use and is generated technology in the residential sector. DPV can the grid. If designed to do so, a microgrid within a modular system. Modularity support short-term and long-term climate can connect and disconnect from the grid allows for locational flexibility and for resilience with certain design specifications. to enable it to operate in grid‐connected new generation systems to be put in place In relation to short-term climate events mode or independently from the grid (i.e., at a faster pace than large-scale systems as and disasters, currently, most DPV systems islanded mode). Systems that are designed electricity demand grows and understanding are not designed to operate independently to operate in islanded mode can be isolated of climate risks improves (REN21 2015). during a grid outage. However, DPV does from a larger grid, allowing the system to DG strategies can increase the relative provide a significant opportunity for back- generate and distribute energy in the event speed of DG deployment (including the up power during disasters in the future if of a power outage or disaster, behind the expansion of existing generation units), paired with battery storage and configured control that is connected to the which may allow countries to more quickly to operate during a grid outage. Other larger grid. The capability of microgrids to respond to changes in load profiles or complementary technologies, such as operate in islanded mode can be critical in location of load centers. However, in cases supplementary generators and/or microgrids, supporting grid resiliency by providing a where DG is connected to the grid, it is can also be integrated with DPV systems back-up resource during a grid outage, while critical that robust interconnection plans are to provide power during a grid outage also building in the safety features needed developed to support effective integration (NREL 2014). Microgrids and storage are to secure the larger grid. An additional with the existing network and system.4 presented in detail in sections below. Box benefit of microgrids is they can be rerouted Therefore, speed of DG deployment must 10 presents modeling approaches to support to provide power to critical loads, such as be balanced with the time required to optimal system planning across various DG healthcare facilities, during a grid outage— develop appropriate interconnection plans. technology and storage scenarios to support if designed to do so. Box 9 highlights Distributed power can be an important resilience during a grid outage. Wesleyan University’s microgrid that was solution in addressing growing electricity designed to support power system resiliency needs in the wake of and For longer-term climate-related changes, in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in the climate change. DPV could be an important resource to United States. Another common feature support power portfolio diversification Distributed generation can support critical of microgrids is the capability of two- and the related climate resilience benefits loads in the event of short-term climate- way communication whereby data is sent highlighted above. In addition, and as related disasters in rural off-grid areas directly from meters back to the energy noted above, DPV systems can be deployed as well as grid-connected areas. In both provider, which can support faster response more rapidly than traditional utility-scale cases, distributed solar or wind must be time during disasters (further information power systems allowing for faster response accompanied by a battery back-up system. on technologies is provided in to changing climate conditions and load In the case of a grid-connected system, the Section 3.5). Box 9 highlights the use of profile changes over time. batteries and inverter must be configured smart meters following Hurricane Sandy. to operate in the event of a grid outage. Minigrids and Microgrids A complementary white paper titled If planned for, DG can provide power Distributed Generation to Support Minigrids and microgrids, with appropriate for telecommunications and emergency Development-focused Climate Action (Cox design strategies,5 are two common types of response, as well as other key services et al. 2016) builds on the information DG technologies that can support climate such as water treatment, healthcare, etc., in this paper to provide a more extensive resiliency. Minigrids are energy systems with during a disaster. Use of renewable-based presentation of DG’s role in supporting a localized distribution network connected DG systems in conjunction with diesel climate resilience.

4. The importance of robust DG interconnection and grid integration plans cannot be underestimated. This is especially important for smaller islanded grids and larger grids that may lack stability (e.g., in certain developing countries). For more information on DG interconnection planning and policies, visit https://www.nrel.gov/dgic/. 5. Please see Mini-Grids Quality Assurance Framework: https://cleanenergysolutions.org/training/mini-grids-quality-assurance-framework.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 9 3.4 Enabling power to the larger grid. This configuration storage, adding the flexibility of energy Storage Solutions allows for independent operation during storage technologies allows for operation grid outages and the provision of low without grid connection. Box 10 highlights Integrating storage into electricity grid emission power when the grid is operating an approach to analyze technology systems can help smooth variation in normally or when the grid is down. Storage solutions that integrates storage to support wind and solar generation and add back- methods may include flywheels, compressed climate resilience. up capabilities to the grid in the event air energy storage, batteries, and pumped- of power outages. When DG systems hydro storage, among others. Energy 3.5 Developing with battery storage are connected to storage is an important component of RE Smart Grids the larger grid, they can be designed, integration for resiliency and will improve through interconnection agreements with stability and reliability and allow for a faster A smart grid brings together two- a utility provider, to include islanding rate of response and recovery to a disaster way communication and other digital controls and energy storage to allow for than a conventional system, which is not technologies within an electricity network grid disconnection that enables operation necessarily adaptable or flexible. While RE to support reliability, flexibility, efficiency, behind the meter or without supplying systems can be incorporated without energy and resilience. In many ways, smart grids can bring all of the technical solutions highlighted above together under a broader climate-resilient electricity system. Through Box 9. Supporting Resiliency Before and technology, technologies or After Hurricane Sandy devices within a smart grid collect data in In the wake of Hurricane Sandy in 2012, smart-metering programs that were real time that can be analyzed by utilities already functional in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., allowed utilities to and system operators. Grid technologies or pinpoint the exact locations of outages as they were occurring, rather than “nodes” can then be controlled and altered relying on people calling in to notify the utility of outages. In Philadelphia, where based on the data received and analysis of 6 approximately 186,000 smart meters had been installed prior to Hurricane the situation. In the context of climate Sandy, an estimated 50,000 customers experienced shorter outage times due to resilience, smart grids can support several the smart metering. positive outcomes. For example, because of real-time communication on changing In 2013, in response to a 77-hour outage during Hurricane Sandy, Wesleyan needs and circumstances associated with University began a microgrid project with support from a state-wide microgrid short-term climate-related events (e.g., pilot program. The initial phase of the microgrid was completed in 2014 and storms and other disasters), responses and consisted of the campus combined heat and power (CHP) plant as well as decisions regarding new power needs and dynamic controls to island the system from the main grid. In 2015, a 750- power diversion can be made quickly. kW solar array was added to the microgrid to add greater flexibility to the If a generation source is impacted by a fuel supply in the event of fuel shortages or grid outages. This system storm, other generation sources can be of natural gas CHP and solar maximizes fuel economy through renewable accessed more quickly and power can also generation while at the same time providing 24-hour power through be diverted to critical facilities such as conventional power generation. hospitals. As highlighted in Section 3.3, smart meters can allow for this type of The current 3.1-MW microgrid can supply approximately 99% of the responsiveness by sending data directly university’s energy needs and is designed to avoid outages. Additionally, the from electricity meters to energy providers microgrid system is supporting energy cost savings over time. The university is and can enable islandable DG to support also now designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as resilience during climate-related disasters. an emergency center for the area and a distribution point. In both the near and short term, smart For more information on the Wesleyan Microgrid, see Rubenstein (2016) and grids can also enable EE. For example, Cohn (2015). demand response and dynamic electricity pricing, supported by smart grid

6. https://energy.gov/oe/services/technology-development/smart-grid.

10 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency technologies and two-way information, can allow utilities to reduce load during Box 10. Assessing Technology Scenarios for Climate peak hours, resulting in a more efficient power system. Smart grid technologies can Resilience Using System Optimization Modeling also empower consumers to reduce peak System optimization tools support energy planning through assessing potential loads by providing real-time information technology portfolios (including renewable energy and fossil fuels) to support (through in home displays, etc.) on energy various objectives. For example, a system optimization model was used use, pricing, etc.7 As highlighted above, to evaluate the technical and economic viability of PV, storage, and diesel reducing peak loads can lessen system generators for cost savings and increased resiliency of critical infrastructure instability and stress during short-term in New York City. The analysis included four separate scenarios comparing the extreme climate events and, more broadly, costs and operability of system designs for a five-day grid outage. The scenario EE measures can also reduce the need for with PV and batteries, combined with diesel generators, allowed for the increased electricity supply over time. greatest rate of survivability during a grid outage. While the analysis focused on options for greatest resilience, the added value of operating PV systems with Smart grid technologies are also critical batteries to reduce energy costs on a daily basis is another consideration. for RE integration to enable climate resilience and GHG mitigation outcomes. This and other studies are showing the importance of moving beyond the In particular, smart grid technologies can status quo to integrate renewable energy sources and energy storage into support management of variability and resource plans to mitigate the impacts of climate change, achieve national goals, continual system balancing with supply and increase resiliency. Frameworks for incorporating climate change planning and demand fluctuations. This is especially into the electricity sector are discussed in Section 4. important in times of electricity generation scarcity that may be associated with extreme weather events, but is also necessary as Table 2. Technology Scenarios to Support Resilience During an Electricity Outage penetration levels of variable renewables Scenario 1 2 3 4 increase over the longer term. Key smart Number grid technologies and measures to support variability management and balanced Scenario PV and PV and PV Battery, Diesel Only: Description Battery: Battery: Diesel: 5-day outage systems include smart meters to enable no resiliency 5-day outage 5-day outage demand response, smart inverters for two- required way communication, storage technologies, PV Size 0 10 kW 2 kW 0 computer models to support improved forecasting, and other real-time system Battery Size 26 kWh/ 2,781 kWh/ 36 kWh/ 0 management equipment integrated across 9kW 37 kW 11 kW transmission and distribution networks Diesel 0 0 kW 27 kW 39 kW to support informed system operator Generator Size decisions. These technologies will be critical Total Capital $22,520 $1,515,120 $76,620 $58,500 in incorporating higher penetrations of Cost renewables that can enable climate benefits Base Case Life $371,141 $371,141 $371,141 $371,141 highlighted in this paper, as well as other Cycle Cost co-benefits (Speer 2015). PV/Battery/ $348,594 $1,928,617 $387,608 $434,379 Diesel Case Life Cycle Cost

Net Present $22,547 -$1,557,476 -$16,467 -$63,239 Value

Source: Anderson et al. (2016)

7. http://web.mit.edu/energy-efficiency/docs/EESP_ArchSmartGridForEE.pdf.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 11 4. INTEGRATED PLANNING PROCESSES: BRINGING TOGETHER TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS TO ACHIEVE GOALS ACROSS MITIGATION AND RESILIENCE

4.1 Climate Planning planning frameworks to support climate emissions, and enhance resilience require resilience and mitigation in the electricity coordinated and integrated planning for the Electric Sector sector include low emission climate- efforts across multiple sectors and levels To enable EE and RE technologies to resilient development strategies, integrated of government. Box 11 elaborates on the support both climate change mitigation electricity planning approaches, and local potential relationships across different levels and resilience goals, one should plan with climate action plans. These planning of government and emphasizes the role of both of these targets in mind, while also processes, strategies, and best practices are local actors in adopting location-specific acknowledging potential tradeoffs. To highlighted below. solutions within the context of resilience planning in Colorado. support climate change mitigation and In many countries, electricity sector resilience in the electricity sector, the EE planning has largely fallen under the and RE technical solutions presented in domain of electric utilities and the 4.2 Low Emission the previous sections can be evaluated commissions that regulate them (Scott Climate-Resilient and integrated under various frameworks. 2013). However, policy frameworks to Development Strategies Three common examples of relevant address climate change, reduce GHG Low emission development strategies (LEDS) are plans that enable while reducing GHG Box 11. Multi-Level and Sectoral Stakeholder emissions over the medium to long term Engagement to Enable Resiliency Planning in (EC-LEDS 2016). LEDS can provide a Colorado, in the United States useful framework to support both climate resilience and GHG emission mitigation The Colorado Resiliency Framework was born out of the state’s desire to in the electricity sector. As of 2015, more rebuild in a more resilient manner following major flooding events in 2013. than 100 countries were developing and The Framework takes an “all hazards” approach—considering all potential implementing LEDS. Further solidifying hazards present in the state—and evaluates both direct vulnerability (linked to the role of LEDS in catalyzing climate acute shocks) and indirect vulnerability (linked to chronic stresses). Despite action, the “invites being a state-level effort, the Framework emphasizes the need to develop Parties to communicate, by 2020, to the local resiliency strategies. The Framework, coordinated through the Colorado secretariat mid-century, long-term low Resiliency and Recovery Office, engaged more than 150 state, federal, and greenhouse gas emission development nongovernmental entities, including the National Renewable Energy Laboratory strategies…” ( 2015). (NREL), and focused on six overarching sectors: infrastructure (which included Many countries have integrated climate energy); economic; community, health and social; housing (which included resilience as a key component of their energy efficiency); and watersheds and natural resources. The stakeholder LEDS and are assessing and prioritizing engagement process was critical to implementation because many of the electricity sector actions in relation to both state-level goals and strategies rely on measures being fulfilled at the local level. mitigation and resilience criteria. The process also resulted in joint identification of priority actions and an outline of state and local roles to support implementation. Design and implementation of a robust LEDS begins with bringing together Source: Colorado United (2013) key stakeholders across sectors of the economy. This is especially important

12 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in linking mitigation and resilience, as 2010, USAID 2016, NCA 2016). droughts are expected in a certain region critical measures often require buy-in and Box 12 presents the approach taken in of a country based on climate scenarios. leadership across ministries and agencies at the United States to assess climate impacts This information could be used to assess the national and subnational level. As an and responses. potential electricity sector options to reduce example, ministries of energy and water are water use and emissions in that region. Based on identification of climate crucial in the planning and implementation Development of robust GHG inventories vulnerabilities, analysts and policymakers of climate-resilient electricity systems. and business-as-usual scenarios is critical in can evaluate the mitigation potential of However, activities across these ministries supporting this broader assessment across possible actions to address vulnerabilities. and related technical agencies are often mitigation and resilience goals. For instance, a policymaker may find that not well coordinated. Bringing these and other key stakeholders together is essential to supporting analysis and ensuring institutional buy-in and the allocation of budgets for implementation of linked Box 12. Climate Assessment in the United States climate actions and policies in the power The U.S. government undertook a National Climate Assessment to identify sector (UNDP 2011). the impacts of climate change on the country presently and in the future. National development goals provide the The study was undertaken by more than 300 diverse experts from multiple critical foundation for LEDS development sectors under the guidance of a cross-sectoral federal advisory committee and implementation. They are often and with review and input from many stakeholders. articulated within an overall LEDS vision The report summarizes impacts at the regional level and in relation to and objectives, and frame all related various climate events. Impacts assessed in the report are as follows: analyses to identify and prioritize actions. human health, infrastructure, water supply, , indigenous people, Climate information, data, and scenarios , and . The report also puts forth potential responses can allow policymakers and planners to to address projected impacts and a robust decision-making framework to assess electricity sector vulnerabilities support action, highlighted below. and risks. In some cases, studies and information that present potential climate Deine the issue vulnerabilities and risks over time for Anale an Establish ecision a particular country or region may be reevaluate criteria available. In other cases, planners may ecision choose to use climate data available in global climate models and then improve the granularity for the national and Access subnational levels. Various methodologies Collaboration Learning inormation can be used to support this process using Monitor (decision-makers, scientists, assess ris historical temperature and precipitation and stakeholders) an available information. In each case, the information ecision can then allow planners to analyze both support current and potential future vulnerabilities in the context of broader development goals (UNDP 2011). National and Implement Enhance subnational vulnerability assessments unerstaning (including quantification and ranking of vulnerabilities) can be used to bring the Integrate evaluate assess information together and comprehensively traeos an ecie identify vulnerabilities and resilience/ response opportunities across sectors, Figure 2. Decision-making framework to enable risk assessment and response. geographies, and populations (UNDP Source: National Climate Assessment (2016)

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 13 Box 13. Low Carbon Climate-Resilient Development in Kenya Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) provides a notable example of an approach to bridge climate mitigation and resilience under a broader national strategy. Key elements of the action plan that link mitigation and adaptation are highlighted below.

1. Low Carbon Climate Resilient Development

2. Enabling Policy and Regulatory Framework

3. Adaptation 4. Mitigation

ENABLERS 5. National 6. National 7. Knowledge 8. Finance

Coordination & Management Coordination Technology Performance Management 9. Action Plan & Bene t & Capacity Measurement Development

Figure 3. Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan framework

In particular, to bridge climate mitigation and resilience in the electricity sector, the technical team supporting the NCCAP undertook a multi-criteria impact assessment of electricity sector options that included impacts related to mitigation, adaptation, and various other sustainable development objectives, as presented in Table 3. The assessment used the DIA framework developed through the LEDS Global Partnership and USAID EC-LEDS program.

Table 3. Multi-Criteria Impact Assessment to Inform Linked Adaptation, Mitigation, and Development-Focused Action in Kenya’s Electricity Sector

High Positive Climate Sustainable Development Positive Neutral/Minor impact Abatement Abatement Improved Adaptation Energy GDP Environmental Negative potential in cost 2030 Employment waste impact security growth impact Uncertain 2030 (MtCO2) (USD/tCO2) management

Expanding 14.1 -19.9

Expanding wind power 1.4 -36.7

Expanding hydropower 1.1 -13.2

Clean coal (USC) 1.1 -11.1

Distributed solar PV 1.0 13.3

Landfill gas generation 0.5 -12.4

For details on the use of the framework to support climate planning, please see https://www.ec-leds.org/tools-page/ development-impact-assessment-tools. For a case study on Kenya’s effort, see Cox et al. (2014).

14 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Evaluating the broader social and economic a more comprehensive perspective that put forward an approach called Integrated development impacts—such as job creation brings together key social, economic, Resource and Resiliency Planning (IRRP) and improvements to health—of potential and environmental criteria. In particular, to enable comprehensive electricity sector mitigation and resilience actions identified these approaches can build on traditional planning across multiple technologies through the assessments highlighted above least-cost planning methods to ensure the and criteria, including climate change is critical in aligning with development resiliency of the electricity system under mitigation and resilience. This approach is goals. Countries and jurisdictions can future climate conditions and in relation highlighted in Box 14. use multi-criteria impact assessments to shifting and extreme weather patterns Integrated electricity planning is considered to evaluate economic, social, and and events. Further, integrated electricity a best practice for “meeting forecasted environmental impacts across actions. An planning approaches can also evaluate annual peak and energy demand, plus example multi-criteria impact assessment the GHG emission reduction potential some established reserve margin, through a that was undertaken to inform low of electricity sector options supporting combination of supply-side and demand- emission climate-resilient electricity sector a strong link between mitigation and side resources over a specified future period” action in Kenya is presented in Box 13. resiliency in the electricity sector. Robust (Wilson and Biewald 2013). Integrated integrated electricity planning approaches Ultimately, a robust set of analyses will electricity planning can consider RE can support improved understanding feed into the development of low emission resources available now and in the future, of future demand and changes in load climate-resilient development scenarios and strives for reliable and resilient grid profiles, and the new generation required that provide a portfolio of priority planning that serves stakeholders and to meet this demand can provide a useful actions can take to support paying customers. An integrated electricity framework to address emerging topics such integrated, development-focused climate planning process can be an effective as climate-driven risks to the electricity action. Many EE and RE actions that starting point for connecting GHG system. If appropriately understood and could be included in these portfolios were emissions mitigation strategies through quantified, these risks may further inform described in earlier sections of this report. RE integration with grid resiliency and the decision-making process regarding reliability planning. cost-effective, efficient, and sustainable 4.3 Integrated Electricity generation options available, particularly In the first stage of an integrated electricity Planning Approaches when those decisions are informing planning process, goals and metrics can infrastructure investments that will be in be developed to determine the impact of As previously described, electricity grid place for decades to come. USAID has proposed electricity investment options. systems are facing increasing climate resiliency challenges, including destructive weather events and climatic changes such as increases in average temperatures, Box 14. USAID’s Integrated Resource and short-term heat events of greater duration, and changes in precipitation patterns. Resiliency Planning Additionally, it is anticipated that many USAID, in partnership with International Development Consulting (ICF), is grids will be integrating building on traditional Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)—a participatory a significant amount of new, variable RE planning process used to identify energy options that serve the highest possible generation. In response, electricity grids public good to maximize benefits (e.g., enhancing energy security, reducing need to both meet increasing electricity sector inefficiencies, reducing electricity costs) by incorporating risks and demand and be more reliable, resilient, reliability concerns (including climate change related risks) throughout the and capable of integrating large amounts power value chain. Known as Integrated Resource and Resiliency Planning, of clean energy generation. Integrated this adapted planning process allows energy planners and investors to identify electricity planning approaches and grid strategies and a mix of investments from a system-wide, long-term perspective modernization efforts can enable electric that meet their objectives, including GHG mitigation, while considering climate grid system operators to meet this diverse change and other risks (e.g., risks associated with fuel price volatility). USAID set of challenges. is working with ICF to pilot this approach in and Ghana. For more information on how USAID and ICF are applying IRRP to enhance power Integrated electricity planning approaches system resilience while meeting growing demands in Tanzania, see RALI (2017). can allow policymakers to evaluate and plan for electricity sector expansion from

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 15 LEDS, as well as other national strategies is the first step in designing integrated and related outputs are often evaluated by and commitments such as NDCs grid electricity planning processes. a diverse set of stakeholders to determine reliability, or goals, can an optimal electricity sector pathway for Following the process to prioritize goals provide an important starting point for the future. Stakeholders play an important and establish metrics for success, various integrated electricity planning goal-setting role throughout this integrated electricity electricity scenarios can be developed and support a consistent methodology for planning process by providing input to that meet a forecast for energy demand electricity planning across national and the overall approach, goals, metrics, and plus provide a reserve margin through subnational actors. Once goals have been outputs. South Africa’s stakeholder-led electricity supply and demand actions established, metrics can be designed in integrated electricity planning process is over a certain time frame. Time frames relation to desired outcomes and provide a highlighted in Box 15. can align with GHG emission reduction way to measure successful implementation. and climate resilience targets identified in Building on integrated electricity planning Prioritizing goals and desired outcomes the country’s LEDS or NDCs. Scenarios approaches and based on optimal scenarios, grid planners and operators can develop detailed plans to support integration of variable RE, often called grid-integration Box 15. Integrated Electricity Planning in South Africa planning. Box 16 highlights USAID’s As the 29th-driest country in the world and with significant rainfall variation efforts to support grid integration planning across seasons, South Africa considers water scarcity an issue of great and implementation. While integrated importance. In particular, increasing electricity demand coupled with climate resource plans can provide an important change is expected to place increasing pressure on scarce water resources and tool to address certain climate challenges could have significant implications for the electricity sector. The government of at the subnational or regional level, South Africa is thus tackling water-electricity challenges from multiple fronts. community-level planning is also critical in supporting effective action based on unique The South African Department of Energy developed an IRP in 2010 that brought together multiple stakeholders to evaluate development and climate- related impacts associated with various electricity supply scenarios forcasted to 2030. The IRP incorporated a multi-criteria impact assessment process that built upon a least-cost optimization model for electricity supply to balance Box 16. Grid development and environmental objectives. Specifically, water use, GHG Integration Planning emissions, and regional development, among other impacts, were assessed and Implementation across electricity supply scenarios. The assessment occurred over a 13-month Grid integration for renewable period to ensure strong stakeholder input and iteration. In 2015, the IRP was energy is the practice of power being updated with new data, information, and assumptions to better reflect system planning, interconnection, South Africa’s evolving electricity sector and demand forecasts. South Africa’s and operation that enables IRP is a key tool linking climate change mitigation and resilience priorities efficient and cost-effective use (associated with water use) in the country’s electricity sector. of renewable energy while Further efforts are also being made to link electricity and water planning at maintaining the stability and the national policy level. Notably, an analytical exercise monetizing economic reliability of . costs associated with water use in the electricity sector was developed by the USAID, in partnership with NREL, Energy Research Center and fed into a “Draft Policy Framework for Efficient has developed Greening the Use of Water in Energy Production.” The policy framework was submitted to Grid, which provides developing the South African Water Research Commission for consideration and possible countries access to best practices adoption at the national level. and technical assistance to cost- As a whole, South Africa provides a strong example of a country bridging key effectively incorporate variable stakeholders, analyses, and policies across the electricity and water sectors to renewable energy into the support a low emission, climate-resilient future. electricity grid.

Sources: Madhlopa (2014); Energy Department: South Africa (2016a, b). Source: Greening the Grid 2016.

16 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency local circumstances. Important aspects of improvements and identification of new As outlined in previous sections, several these local climate change preparedness challenges and opportunities over time. electricity sector actions can support both plans are highlighted in Section 4.4. climate resilience and mitigation at the Climate resiliency is a key pillar of a local local level. While large-scale electricity climate change strategy. As resiliency can procurement decisions may be informed 4.4 Local Climate have various definitions, it is important for by national strategies such as LEDS and a community to define resiliency from a Strategies articulated in integrated electricity plans local context, so projects and goals resonate (often developed by utilities), local climate Building on LEDS, NDCs, National with stakeholders and provide them with action plans can be critical in supporting Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and other a sense of ownership and buy-in. Many smaller-scale electricity generation. For climate actions and strategies, subnational examples exist; however, a community example, local climate action plans are climate strategies can support low emission, may wish to take an approach similar to often best suited to reflect potential DG climate-resilient electricity systems within the Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient opportunities given the decentralized and cities, municipalities, and communities. Cities, which defines as local nature of the technologies. Local “the capacity of individuals, communities, Local economic and social development climate plans can also incorporate specific institutions, businesses, and systems within goals provide the foundation and essential goals or targets related to smaller-scale a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter framing for considering climate actions technologies and climate action. across mitigation and resilience, and for what kinds of chronic stresses and acute developing subnational climate strategies. In shocks they experience” (100 Resilient Local climate action plans can also provide the context of these broader development Cities 2017). a critical mechanism to implement and monitor LEDS activities identified at the goals, communities can set local emission To support low emission, climate-resilient national level. For instance, a country’s reduction and resiliency goals and targets electricity systems at the local level, LEDS may put forth a goal to support based on unique local circumstances. communities can assess options that enable climate resilience through a certain Emission-reduction goals are often based both GHG emission mitigation and climate percentage of DG deployment; however, on city or community-level GHG emission resilience goals while also aligning with this deployment will actually occur within inventories. Resiliency goals are based on broader development objectives. Actions to communities. Local climate action processes assessment of local vulnerabilities, threats, support climate resilience can be identified can also bring together stakeholders to and opportunities, and often emphasize through assessing threats and vulnerabilities build support for community action and energy and water security (New York State to a community, often with a focus on grid potentially harness municipal-level funding 2016; EPA 2016). and water infrastructure. Vulnerabilities to implement smaller-scale projects. At are identified using past experience, Whole community planning processes the same time, national-level funding, forecasting, and subject matter experts, or a with diverse stakeholders can support the via LEDS or other strategies, could also combination of many resources. Threats or successful design and implementation be directed to municipal governments to hazards are further evaluated in the context of local climate strategies. Identifying implement distributed electricity projects or of potential impacts to the community, the essential stakeholders and subject policies that enable islanding, storage, and as well as the likelihood of those threats matter experts, as well as those who have other approaches to harden existing and occurring (based on statistical analysis jurisdictional control or can influence new electricity infrastructure.8 Finally, local and forecasting). The nature of threats policies, budget allocations, and actions, is a communities can also play an important and vulnerabilities, unique to specific critical component of the planning process. role in tracking climate and development communities, will inform prioritization of Stakeholder engagement often requires impacts of smaller-scale electricity projects, sectors, and geographies to support multiple workshops and discussions over a actions that can feed into monitoring climate resilience. Similar to the national long period of time to communicate and and evaluation processes at the national LEDS process noted above, metrics can evaluate challenges and solutions across the level. Box 17 highlights climate-resilient be developed to assess electricity sector community to develop a plan for action. planning efforts that link climate change actions relative to the climate vulnerabilities Local climate action planning should be resilience and mitigation at the local level in described above as well as GHG emission an iterative -in-progress to support Oscarville, Alaska. mitigation and development goals.

8. However, such budget allocations are context-specific and are dependent upon the level of and the capacity or ability of municipalities to access central funds.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 17 Box 17. Oscarville, Alaska, Initiates Resilient Planning Oscarville is a small village located on the north bank of the Kuskokwim River in western Alaska. This climate-threatened community relies on the Kuskokwim as the primary source for transporting goods and people and has a single power line that provides power from the power plant to the town of Bethel. In 2016, the village initiated a strategic planning process to increase the community’s resilience while also bolstering goals. Oscarville is in the process of implementing the following to make the community more resilient in dealing with power outages, climate change, and transportation disruptions:

• Reduce electricity consumption rates by 2% per year through 2026. This is to be accomplished through a system of both energy and the adoption of energy efficient technologies, including smart controls and LED lighting. • Generate enough DG power to offset 50% of the village’s consumption. This will largely be accomplished through solar PV and possibly DG wind turbines. • Reduce dependence on fuel oil for heating. A recovery project will be implemented using the school’s generator and a marine jacket system. The village will also explore waste-to-heat options to help reduce the amount of solid waste sent to the local .

18 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 5. CONCLUSION

EE and RE can play an essential role in bridging climate change mitigation and resilience goals in the electricity sector. As more communities and nations consider these objectives in parallel through integrated planning processes, an increasing number of practical examples and case studies are emerging. These experiences provide insights to planners in both the developing and developed world and begin to provide model pathways for effectively deploying EE and RE in ways that not only reduce the carbon intensity of one’s power system but also strengthen the resiliency of that system and the critical services it provides to those communities. Several EE and RE technical solutions to link climate change mitigation and resilience goals were described in this paper, but as the scale and pace of EE and RE deployment continue to grow around the world, it is anticipated that many new lessons and innovative solutions will emerge as both energy demand and climate risks increase. It will be crucial to evaluate and bring these technical solutions together under integrated climate planning frameworks that connect stakeholders and unique considerations at the national, subnational, and local levels. Nations and actors are working to explore and make these connections on the ground, but there is still much work to be done to support mutually beneficial climate outcomes in the electricity sector through integrated planning and robust technical solutions.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 19 GLOSSARY

Balancing area. The collection of generation, transmission, and loads within certain boundaries. Demand-side management. Demand-side management and demand response enable consumers to participate in load control based on price signals. Islandable. The ability to use distributed generation to provide power when storms or other events have knocked out the utility’s ability to provide power. Low emission development strategies. Plans that enable sustainable development while reducing greenhouse gas emission over the medium to long term. Minigrids. Energy systems with a localized distribution network to a single community or a cluster of communities and are not connected to the grid. Microgrid. A group of interconnected loads and distributed energy resources within a clearly defined electrical boundary that acts as a single controllable entity with respect to the grid. Resilient power system. Resilient power systems bring together diverse technical solutions and integrated planning processes to allow systems to provide reliable, safe, and secure electricity during short-term disasters and events and as longer-term climate changes occur. Smart grid. A nickname for the utility power distribution grid enabled with computer technology and two-way digital communications networking. The term encompasses the ever-widening palate of utility applications that enhance and automate the monitoring and control of electrical distribution networks for added reliability, efficiency, and cost effective operations. Variability. The changes in power demand and/or the output of a generator due to underlying fluctuations in resource or load. For additional definitions, see Greening the Grid’s glossary athttps://www.naed.org/naed/ NAED/Research/Energy_and_Sustainability_Sub/Smart_Grid_Glossary.aspx.

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Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 23 CONTACTS

Jennifer Leisch U.S. Agency for International Development U.S. Agency for National Renewable Energy Laboratory +1-303-913-0103 International Development 15013 Denver West Parkway [email protected] Ronald Reagan Building Golden, CO 80401 Washington, D.C. 20523-1000 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Sadie Cox www.usaid.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Department of Energy, Office of Energy +1-303-384-7391 Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated [email protected] by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

NREL/TP-6A20-67040 • November 2017