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Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation Sadie Cox, Eliza Hotchkiss, Dan Bilello, Andrea Watson, and Alison Holm | National Renewable Energy Laboratory Jennifer Leisch | U.S. Agency for International Development November 2017 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Sherry Stout, Jaquelin Cochran, and David Mooney of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Pamela Cookson of ICF International, and Danielle Miley of the U.S. Agency for International Development for their thoughtful comments and review. Any remaining errors or omissions are those of the authors. Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency i LIST OF ACRONYMS CHP combined heat and power DG distributed generation DPV distributed photovoltaics DSM demand-side management EE energy efficiency FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GHG greenhouse gas IRP integrated resource planning IRRP Integrated Resource and Resiliency Planning LEDS low emission development strategies NAP National Adaptation Plan NCCAP National Climate Change Action Plan NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory RALI (USAID) Resources to Advance LEDS Implementation PV photovoltaics RE renewable energy ii Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction .........................................................................................................1 2. Power Sector Climate Change Vulnerability ................................................................2 3. Technical Solutions: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to Support Resilient Power Systems ...........................................................................5 3.1 Scaling Up Demand-Side Energy Efficiency ......................................................................... 5 3.2 Diversifying Generation Portfolios ................................................................................. 8 3.3 Deploying Distributed Generation: Distributed PV, Microgrids, and Minigrids....................................... 9 3.4 Enabling Storage Solutions ........................................................................................10 3.5 Developing Smart Grids ..........................................................................................10 4. Integrated Planning Processes: Bringing Together Technical Solutions to Achieve Goals Across Mitigation and Resilience ........................................................12 4.1 Climate Planning for the Electric Sector...........................................................................12 4.2 Low Emission Climate-Resilient Development Strategies..........................................................12 4.3 Integrated Electricity Planning Approaches ........................................................................15 4.4 Local Climate Strategies...........................................................................................17 5. Conclusion ..........................................................................................................19 Glossary .................................................................................................................20 References .............................................................................................................21 Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Potential Climate Change Impacts to Power Technologies and Sectors ............................................. 2 Table 2. Technology Scenarios to Support Resilience During an Electricity Outage .........................................11 Table 3. Multi-Criteria Impact Assessment to Inform Linked Adaptation, Mitigation, and Development-Focused Action in Kenya’s Electricity Sector ........................................................14 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Water withdrawal and consumption of power generation technologies. ........................................... 4 Figure 2. Decision-making framework to enable risk assessment and response. ............................................13 Figure 3. Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan framework ........................................................14 LIST OF BOXES Box 1. Resilient Power Systems Defined . 3 Box 2. Technology Innovation to Support Climate Resilience................................................................ 3 Box 3. Water and Electricity in the Context of Climate Change ............................................................ 4 Box 4. Utility-Led Demand-Side Management and Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States ......................... 6 Box 5. Passive Survivability in Maine ........................................................................................ 7 Box 6. Building Codes to Support Climate Resilience and Mitigation in Vietnam ............................................ 7 Box 7. Antigua and Barbuda NDCs Goal to Create Climate-Resilient Building Codes....................................... 8 Box 8. Addressing Climate Risks in Ho Chi Minh City ...................................................................... 8 Box 9. Supporting Resiliency Before and After Hurricane Sandy............................................................10 Box 10. Assessing Technology Scenarios for Climate Resilience Using System Optimization Modeling .....................11 Box 11. Multi-Level and Sectoral Stakeholder Engagement to Enable Resiliency Planning in Colorado, in the United States . 12 Box 12. Climate Assessment in the United States .........................................................................13 Box 13. Low Carbon Climate-Resilient Development in Kenya ............................................................14 Box 14. USAID’s Integrated Resource and Resiliency Planning .............................................................15 Box 15. Integrated Electricity Planning in South Africa .....................................................................16 Box 16. Grid Integration Planning and Implementation ....................................................................16 Box 17. Oscarville, Alaska, Initiates Resilient Planning .....................................................................18 iv Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 1. INTRODUCTION Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change (IPCC 2014). Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts—both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growing electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience. Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 1 2. POWER SECTOR CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY Climate change is currently impacting, Table 1. Potential Climate Change Impacts to Power Technologies and Sectors and will continue to impact, the electricity Climate changes Technologies/sectors Potential impacts sector globally (IPCC 2012). Both chronic climatic change and singular climate events Temperature Generation • Crop damage and increased will affect the demand, supply, production, change • Biopower irrigation demand and delivery of electricity in a multitude of • Hydropower • Reduced generation capacity and operational changes ways. Table 1 presents categories of climate • Solar PV changes and potential impacts on power • Reduced generation capacity • Thermal technologies generation, transmission and distribution, (coal, geothermal, natural • Reduced generation efficiency and demand. EE and RE technical solutions gas, nuclear, concentrated and capacity that can support addressing these impacts solar power) • Reduced transmission efficiency and capacity are explored in Section 3. Transmission and distribution
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